Vettim89 vs Greasylake - Reversal of Fortunes

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock

It has been eleven days and still no sign of the IJN CVTF. We wait.

That is interesting and disturbing. Perhaps he has oilers in the IO as well?

Not that I saw. I saw a CVTF and a SCTF. They were seen about 300 nm West of the Sunda Strait on the 17th and disappeared. I cannot beleive they were able to eleude contact for what would have to have been three days to pass back through the strait. I noticed Larry posted in his AAR again so those of you with the freedom to look can solve this mystery at least for you.

29 April 1944

Slow turn. I spotted an I-Boat approaching my CVTF of Bandjermasin. I moved my CVTF and sent in a ASW TF of 5 DD into the hex the CV's occupied. The 2nd Marine Div is heading to PH.

I am so grateful I brough the oilers this time on the Bandjer Op. Without them I would have had to beat feet back to Lautem by now with my CVTF. So instead they lurk waiting for the IJN.

What is interesting is that as I prepared to hit Balikpapan and Soerobaja with counter air, these bases are suddenly either empty (Balikpapan) or greatly reduce in a/c (Soerobaja). Something is up. I don't know what but something.

Larry has augmented his garrison at Ban Don over the past month. Japanese AV is now 3700 to 4600 for Allies. He may regret that once I start moving down the east coast of Sumatra

Checked tracker today. The japanese have lost 108 AP and 222 AK plus 40 TK so far

[ny59giants]

What is interesting is that as I prepared to hit Balikpapan and Soerobaja with counter air, these bases are suddenly either empty (Balikpapan) or greatly reduce in a/c (Soerobaja). Something is up. I don't know what but something.

He could be moving them to cover the re-entry of KB back through the straits. I would use Recon aircraft and set PBY types to recon with 70% Naval Search on most of the bases in the area. Increase his level of nervousness about getting them through undetected.

You could use an older CL with FP to cruise up the west coast of Java, but far enough off shore to go looking for KB. You may lose her, but she may spot KB for you.

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

What is interesting is that as I prepared to hit Balikpapan and Soerobaja with counter air, these bases are suddenly either empty (Balikpapan) or greatly reduce in a/c (Soerobaja). Something is up. I don't know what but something.

He could be moving them to cover the re-entry of KB back through the straits. I would use Recon aircraft and set PBY types to recon with 70% Naval Search on most of the bases in the area. Increase his level of nervousness about getting them through undetected.

You could use an older CL with FP to cruise up the west coast of Java, but far enough off shore to go looking for KB. You may lose her, but she may spot KB for you.

I could do that. An old RN CL out of Padang could sprint out to eight hexes and still be LRCAP'd. This would extend my range by about 180 nm as the Walrus has a five hex max range. I loaded up the WiTP Utility and was looking. Between the Liberators on Ceylon, Sunderlands at Padang, and PBY at Maumere, I have a large portion of the IO covered. There is a faily narrow window out there where he could be hiding. One possibility I did not consider is that he could have sprinted from his last known position with auto-disband on and landed at Tjiltijap. I will recon that base next turn. I have a few Coronado Sq out there. I will move one up to Badjermasin ASAP. A few more hexes of range could help here

[vettim89]

30 May 1944

Not much happening but sub ops. US fleet boats sink another AK and the second ML in three days. Last supplies are loading at Darwin for Amboina.

Now where are thos darn IJN CV's. Sorry about the crude image. The pretty line is from WITP Utility and shows the Sunderland range. The crude line is the approximate range of B-17's on Nav search from Maumere. If I can get some AV support into Bandjermasin, I can close this gap some.

[ny59giants]

Can you put some 4e bombers (B-17, B-24, or B-29) at Padang on Naval Search?? If the AF is size 4 or larger, you should be able to do so.

[HMS Resolution]

Even as is, assuming he's actually still out there, he's gotta be burning up precious fuel tooling around in an empy swathe of ocean. That's not gonna last forever. Do you have any available subs you can send to scout about?

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Can you put some 4e bombers (B-17, B-24, or B-29) at Padang on Naval Search?? If the AF is size 4 or larger, you should be able to do so.

That would only buy me another 240 NM (4 hexes), but might be worth it. I thiink the Bandjermasin idea is a better one as it would close the loop from the eastward direction. Maybe I missed something but I have to beleive they are still out there. Maybe I'll get lucky and get a "radio transmissions detected at xx, xx" message soon. As to subs, I think there are a few down at Darwin repairing that have syst in the single digits. The rest are up around the PI wreaking havoc on MS. As it would take a long time to get them down there and the work they are doing is important, I think I'll leave them be. Alos subs that run afoul of KB tend to get chewed up adn often sunk

I think I'll pull the B-25's out of Padang and replace them with Liberator III's. That will both buy me a few more hexes and give me a slightly greater strike range. Problem is that B-25 unit has EXP around 90 and they often drop 2000 lb bombs.

[vettim89]

1 May 1944

Nothing. They have got to be out there. Slow turn. Highlights

1. TF are done unloading at Bandjermasin and are now reloading all but one AUssie unit.

2. SS Narwal puts two TT into an AK off Tarakan and then is promptly sunk

3. P-38's sweep Singers and kill 18 Tojo for 3 Lightning

4. TF depart Darwin for Amboina under CAP of 9 CVE. I hope 180 FM-2 is enough. I know they can push away bombers but if Larry sends some second or third gen fighters, I may be in trouble.

5. An I-boat is spoted about 300 NM NNE of Midway. I may form up a Hunter killer group out of PH if this guy keeps drifting east. I have 9 CVE there now

Thought I would show the area around the PI. Shark infested waters indeed

[vettim89]

2-3 May 1944

The Superbees hit SIngers on the 2nd. The base is abadoned. Soerobaja is all but abandoned now too. Balikpapan is empty of all but a few Patrol A/C. Kendari is empty. AMboina is empty. Palembang has a lot of fighters at it. Batavia is teh one question mark.

Why do I make a point of all this you ask? Becasue the IJN CVTF is in the Sunda Strait! And talk about perfect timing as my Av support arrived at Bandjermasin this turn. FIghters are flown in there to protect the transports while the US CVTF go hunting. I was beginning to think I was experincing some sort of paranoid state. I kept thinking those CV's have got to be out there. For the record, they were off grid for 16 days.

You can see my indicated path. My figuring is Larry will either break for SIngers or head to Batavia for fuel. The only thing that could ruin this plan would be a Full Speed move toward Manilla.

P-51B in CHinese serice see ther first combat over Sian.

[HMS Resolution]

Oh excellent! Kinda seems like Manilla might be his only place to go, though.

[ny59giants]

Happy Hunting!!

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: HMS Resolution

Oh excellent! Kinda seems like Manilla might be his only place to go, though.

Ultimately Manila will have to be his destination as I have demonstrated that Singers is not safe. The only question is: does he have enough fuel to sprint through the Java Sea in one turn? If not, he is in a bad situation. If he has to fuel at Batavia which is a definite possibility considering it has been 20 days since these TF refueled, he will be trapped. I figure even at cruise speed he has consumed 5000 nm of fuel. Obviously his CV's and BB's have the fuel for this but the DD's and cruisers had to have been sucking fuel off the larger ships like crazy. This next turn will be VERY interesting. I noted a few days ago that a lot of the visible fighter strength on map disappeared. Perhaps it is all at Batavia. He may be planning a huge CAP umbrella over his TF while they refuel.

[HMS Resolution]

Can your LBA get a strike on him even if he sprints? All you really need is one lucky hit and he could have a carrier lagging behind. Will you be moving more subs to cover Manilla?

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: HMS Resolution

Can your LBA get a strike on him even if he sprints? All you really need is one lucky hit and he could have a carrier lagging behind. Will you be moving more subs to cover Manilla?

LBA threat is minimal because Padang requires a lot of fighters to keep the wolves at bay. I have one Liberator III sq there now. We have a HR that any air unit that transfers more than 9 hexes must stand down for one day ergo the thought of flying a bunch more in will not likely work. If you look up about five posts you will see I have 13 submarines in the South China Sea at present with an addition eleven boats on the east coast of the PI that could be surged into the area. No matter what, it is going to be a tough road home for the IJN

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

You could rest your Super Bees up.
Next, make sure they all have good leaders.
Then, without recon hit the port at Manila.
Why?? He probably retreated his CVs there after your last encounter. You might not sink them, but put them out of commission for a few months.

Give thought to hitting some of his major repair shipyards with them to put some fear in him. [;)]

Vettim, great AAR by the way. I am just catching up, and saw this post a few back from my esteemed collegue. Although the CV's aren't there, I would be doing this anyway; it's a GREAT idea. It will force him to CAP every port on the map south of Luzon, or not dock ships there, either way it is a major pain for the Japanese. Even if you only hit some transports, as a "show me" raid you should be doing this.

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

You could rest your Super Bees up.
Next, make sure they all have good leaders.
Then, without recon hit the port at Manila.
Why?? He probably retreated his CVs there after your last encounter. You might not sink them, but put them out of commission for a few months.

Give thought to hitting some of his major repair shipyards with them to put some fear in him. [;)]

Vettim, great AAR by the way. I am just catching up, and saw this post a few back from my esteemed collegue. Although the CV's aren't there, I would be doing this anyway; it's a GREAT idea. It will force him to CAP every port on the map south of Luzon, or not dock ships there, either way it is a major pain for the Japanese. Even if you only hit some transports, as a "show me" raid you should be doing this.

Last cursor intel of Manila was 78 ships! Talk about a muwahahaha moment. Superbees are resting from hitting Singers. Manilla is next target. That is unless teh IJN CV's don't run into another port and disband

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: vettim89
Last cursor intel of Manila was 78 ships! Talk about a muwahahaha moment. Superbees are resting from hitting Singers. Manilla is next target. That is unless teh IJN CV's don't run into another port and disband

Looking forward to the results! Probably not alot of sinkings, but ALOT of hits!

[Capt. Harlock]

Why do I make a point of all this you ask? Becasue the IJN CVTF is in the Sunda Strait! And talk about perfect timing as my Av support arrived at Bandjermasin this turn. FIghters are flown in there to protect the transports while the US CVTF go hunting.

Tally Ho!!

[vettim89]

4 May 1944

The image says it all. Both the hex occupied by the USN CVTF and the IJN CVTF were socked in. Good news is there is a CVE in the IJN TF which does limit speed some. Obvious Laryy opted for a Full SPeed move last turn moving eight hexes. The question is will he opt for another one or does he think he is in the clear? I am planning for no Full Speed. Basically I could sprint around the Horn of Borneo here but that would leave my CVTF out in the SCS by their lonesome. Not rady to challenge the Japanese air power just yet. My TF should move four or five hexes depending on if the DD's refuel. Just have to take my chances that Larry cannot afford two high speed turns in a row. I am sending my subs into a very nasty patrol line. The image shows the first three lines but there is a series of six consecutive hexes leading all the way to manilla that will have that type of line in them

Elsewhere:

* TF hit AMboina next turn. The MSW are lagging behind and I thought about holding off, but these guys are going to be exposed long enough without me steaming in circles for an extra day. Rather just take my lumps with the mines. A weak weak attack by G4M2's was beat off from Sorong this turn

* A huge TF with two US ID, the West Africa Brigade and support troops leave Aden for Trico. This trip will take 25 days. This TF is escorted by two RN CVE also.

* Umak Is AB goes to level 4. AV support a few days out. Next I move on Adak then Amchika. FOr those of your clamoring for a NoPac offensive, it is beginning.

* CentPact CVTF are two days out of PH. There is a CV at Panama waiting for some DD's to arrive to escort her to PH. CV Ticongeroga arrives in 10 days. Two more CVE's arrive in that period too. Once this force is at PH I will load for Marcus.

* SUperbees still resting. I will wait to see if Larry sends his CVTF to Manila before launching that attack.

Very disappointed by these results though I am sure Larry is releived. Hopefully he thinks he is safe. One more turn of possible action but I think it will not happen

[ny59giants]

* Superbees still resting. I will wait to see if Larry sends his CVTF to Manila before launching that attack.

I know it is "free" intel, but I would monitor the "air bal" at Manila. Second, take a closer look at Hong Kong as a second choice by Larry.