The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

The SigInt report for 3/3/44 has a lot of useful information. Reading these reports sometimes offers insights into an opponents plans...and can suggest whether an Allied plan, currently in development, is properly oriented.

[Canoerebel]

3/3/44

Third Ring: Gove falls to the Allies, bringing Operation Third Ring to a conclusion.

Third Ring was the operation to clear an LOC between the DEI and the Coral Sea. The major targets were Merauke, Horn Island, and Gove. Losses were negligible. The operation strung out, mainly because it was a lower priority than the others, so forces were committed when available.

Big Tent and Third Ring commenced with the landing at Satawal Island on November 9, 1943. So the two ops took nearly four months. In addition to the Third Ring targets, major Big Tent targets were Morotai, Sorong, Manokwari, Boela, and Ambon. There were many secondary (inc. Babar, Dobo, Saumlaki, Babo, Biak) and tertiary (dot hex) targets.

Operation Carousel was a spin-off of the other two, when KB remained stationed near the Solomons. Carousel is ongoing, but has thus far netted Watampone, Polapo, Makassar and Salajar Island.

As discussed in detail previously, the largest ship lost by the Allies over these four months, while penetrating deeply into Japan's heartland and fighting for months, was CLAA Richmond. Japanese losses were much heavier even though John showed a marked reluctance to engage, especially since mid December.

These operations succeeded in seizing bases in the enemy heartland, building them large, providing them with supply, and in attritioning the Kaigun.

But a key question going forward is whether John has a decent handle on what might happen next. Has he properly allocated resources or has he spent too much time misconstruing the map? At the moment, I feel pretty good about Fun House, mainly because I like what I'm seing on the map and in SigInt reports. We'll see what happens as Fun House begins to unfold over the next four or five weeks.

[Canoerebel]

3/4/44

Fun House and Everything Else: Things continue to go smoothly across the map. There are flair-ups here and there, and little things cropping up, but the real thing is Fun House. The logistical work going on in the background is immense and going very well. A for instance: 6th Army HQ is 82% prepped; 6th American Division is 93% prepped; 6th Australian Division is 59% prepped.

[Canoerebel]

3/5/44

Burma: Suddenly IJA unit movement dots sprout here, there, everywhere. I think this is the beginning of the general withdrawal.

Fun House: Lots going on. Embarkation date of March 20 remains on schedule. Bristol-class DDs have started 2-day upgrades, but the carriers declined to join them even though the scheduled upgrades don't require a port size (level 0 suffices, Normanton is a level four). I'll just monitor this for a few days. I'd like them to upgrade, but it's not essential.

Marshalls: Still an enemy combat TF at Eniwetok.

[Lokasenna]

They won't upgrade at Normanton. Even though no shipyard is required, ports must still be big enough to upgrade the ship. It is based on the cube of port size compared to tonnage divided by 1000, I think. I forget the exact formula... but am not at all surprised that the CVs won't upgrade at a level 4 port.

[Canoerebel]

Well cubing things, comparing and dividing is beyond my micromanagement tolerance. Augh!

[adarbrauner]

"...COMPARED to tonnage...."??

meaning?

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: adarbrauner

"...COMPARED to tonnage...."??

meaning?

Meaning for a level 4 port the ship to be upgraded would have to displace 16,000 tons or less (Pt Size² > displacement tonnage ÷ 1000)

[Capt. Harlock]

Burma: Suddenly IJA unit movement dots sprout here, there, everywhere. I think this is the beginning of the general withdrawal.

Any predictions on when you'll have the Burma Road open again?

[Canoerebel]

It's not clear yet whether John's actually going to abandon Burma or whether he might turn and fight. I don't "need" the road open until the summer months, but I can make use of it any time prior thereto. So I'll push him but I won't make a big battle of it if he does fight back hard. But if he is beginning a withdrawal, events should gather momentum. Once I have an airfield or two in proximity to Rangoon, the jig is probably up for John in Burma. My guess is: two months (and that's just about perfect for my purposes).

Burma is tied closely to Peep Show, the op that will follow Fun House. To this point, I haven't fought in Burma because I prefer that John maintain a strong army as far forward as possible. But now things could speed up or slow down, depending on whether Fun House is successful. If it's successful beyond my expectations (like Big Tent), Peep Show could go as soon as May. But if things drag out it might be more like September.

[bradfordkay]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: adarbrauner

"...COMPARED to tonnage...."??

meaning?

Meaning for a level 4 port the ship to be upgraded would have to displace 16,000 tons or less (Pt Size² > displacement tonnage ÷ 1000)

So it is the SQUARE of the port size, not the CUBE, that is compared to the tonnage/1000?

This would explain why the Prince of Wales would not upgrade at my level 5 port in Perth.

[BillBrown]

From what I found it is port size cubed has to be larger than displacement tonnage / 100.

So a size 4 port will only handle a ship size of 6,400 tons.
Don Bowen did also indicate that tender ships and Naval Support would increase the ship size.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

From what I found it is port size cubed has to be larger than displacement tonnage / 100.

So a size 4 port will only handle a ship size of 6,400 tons.
Don Bowen did also indicate that tender ships and Naval Support would increase the ship size.

Are you sure he meant the NS and tenders were in relation to ship upgrades and not repair?

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

From what I found it is port size cubed has to be larger than displacement tonnage / 100.

So a size 4 port will only handle a ship size of 6,400 tons.
Don Bowen did also indicate that tender ships and Naval Support would increase the ship size.

Yep, this is it.

I just send bigger ships to bigger ports.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

From what I found it is port size cubed has to be larger than displacement tonnage / 100.

So a size 4 port will only handle a ship size of 6,400 tons.
Don Bowen did also indicate that tender ships and Naval Support would increase the ship size.

Are you sure he meant the NS and tenders were in relation to ship upgrades and not repair?

Yes, it was rather explicit, but he wouldn't say by how much.

[Canoerebel]

3/6/44

Thank you for the information about port size and ship upgrades. I'd give this the attention needed to know with certainty if I had to have the upgrades. I don't, and my carriers will go no further than Townsville (which is a level 7 port), so they'll either upgrade or not. It's not worth the fuel and time it would take to try a place like Sydney. Too much will happen too soon.

A promising day from Burma to the Marshalls. But, as always, it's the behind-the-scenes Fun House activity that really matters.

The map will speak to the events of the day.

[Lokasenna]

Townsville can upgrade up to 34.3K tons without any naval support and the like, which may be able to do the Essexes depending on which displacement the game uses - design, actual, fully loaded, etc.

[bradfordkay]

How long will your carriers be out of commission with this next update? That needs to be taken into account...

[Canoerebel]

The updates will take only 10 days, but it's not worth delaying Fun House to head to Sydney. Townsville maybe, but I haven't decided yet.

[Canoerebel]

3/7/44

The German army, having withdrawn for two months right out of France, finally turns on the enemy nipping at its heals....I think. If John is launching a counteroffensive, will it turn out like the Bulge did for Germany?

Carousel: John has committed 19th Division to reinforce Pare Pare, Celebes, and may have his eyes the Allied-held islands to the south. I don't care what happens here as long as it takes awhile. I don't want to lose the bases I've taken, but in a month, Celebes should be mostly irrelevant. I'll let John land as much as he wants as long as he wants.

Marshalls: I think he's reinforcing Roi-Namur, after just withdrawing from there. This may just be a case of denying it to me because he can (my force is week), but his exposing of two CAs and a CL for an op in the Marshalls is risky.

Burma: Things are rolling at the moment.

Fun House: On schedule.