Shattered Vow

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

I agree, crsutton. This is the achilles heel of the current allied AE aerial model, I fear.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I understand that the WiTP incremental improvement of 'basic' pilots fresh out of training school is gone. All pilots from the USAA or USN or Commonwealth come in at the same pathetic levels (it's 35, isn't it?) throughout the war. In WiTP, entry-level pilots for the USN, for example would be something like 60-65 in 1945. This higher caliber of replacement pilots was (and still is) very important for the allies.

About the only advantage that I see for the allies is the larger number of on-map GROUPS now present for training pilots. One can pump them full of crappy entry level pilots and train up to '70' EXP or specific skill in a few months. Then they can rotate them into 'General Reserve' for assignment (as the IJ player does now). Eventually (with attendant onerous micromanagement of pilot pools), the allies can field formidable replacement pools to quickly refill those ranks of pilots attritted through frontline combat.

BUT

If the allied player doesn't rejoice in such tremendous pilot micromangement (and who could blame them, really?), the only way they'll be able to bring decent pilots continuously to the fore is by rotating whole groups into action and rotating whole groups out of the action in their entirety. This requires a larger number of groups closer to the action and probably doesn't provide for homogenous good pilot cadres to be constructed in the rebuilding groups / squadrons.

I think that the poor entry skills of allied aviators is problematic. They should be at least 15-20 points higher than Japanese entry level skills, particularly as the war rolls on into 1943-1945 and the pilot training machine that was the USAAF and USN pumps out decent pilots en masse.

Airframes 'feel' about right, a/c durability and capabilities 'feel' about right, CAP 'feels' about right, but the incessant ability of the IJNAF and IJAAF to field superior pilots late into the war at the expense of the allies feels very much wrong.

It's too easy for the IJ to keep pace in the air war with pilot quality. Training is too fast, too easy. It shouldn't be so.

My two bits...

Gulp. This is a very worrisome situation (and very good summary by Roosterlad [getting him back for the KayakJohnnie comment only because it took me about three days to realize what he did. [:)])

This is exactly what I seem to be facing in my game:

1. Japanese pilots of high quality (at least they seem to be outperforming the Allies regularly).

2. Allied pilots of low quality.

3. I hate micromanaging pilot pools, so I'm following the second route suggested by Pulletyouth - rotating out entire squadrons at the front lines. I probably have twenty to twenty five fighter squadrons around Darwin and I shuffle them between there and the island bases.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Do we have any Japanese players who have advanced far enough into AE to comment to the Chicken on this? 

I'm playing two PBEMs as the IJ, John 3rd. That's the way I sees it.

[Canoerebel]

I'm working on the next turn now - the one that may include the Allied carriers springing an ambush near Milne Bay, or perhaps blundering into an ambush near Milne Bay.  Four things:
 
1)  coastwatchers reported CV Shokaku at Gasmata.  I think she (and probably Zuikaku and other carriers) are providing LRCAP for the Japanese ships at Port Moresby.  Are these carriers here purely in a defensive posture, or is Miller planning his own ambush?
 
2)  the Japanese combat TF at PM includes CAs Myoko, Takao, and Atago and CLs Yura, Nagara, and Natori.  A tempting target indeed.
 
3)  one of my CVEs (Copahee) has Corsairs aboard.  Can CVEs handle Corsairs?  I wonder because I previously had a Corsair unit on Long Island and the Corsairs did NOT fly CAP or escort during the initial assault against Paramushiro.  Does anybody know for certain?
 
4)  As best I can tell Japanese patrol aircraft from Lunga did not pick up the Allied carrier TFs.  I don't think Miller knows they are in the area.
 
What do you guys think?  Should I spring the ambush or should I flee?  I'm inclined to give battle.

[jackyo123]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy



Correct me if I'm wrong, but I understand that the WiTP incremental improvement of 'basic' pilots fresh out of training school is gone. All pilots from the USAA or USN or Commonwealth come in at the same pathetic levels (it's 35, isn't it?) throughout the war. In WiTP, entry-level pilots for the USN, for example would be something like 60-65 in 1945. This higher caliber of replacement pilots was (and still is) very important for the allies.

I am quite certain that, when digging around in the scenario editor for one of the stock scenarios (maybe #1?) that the Japanese pilots begin to drop dramatically in starting experience in 1943 - goes something like

1941 - 35
1942 - 35
1943 - 35
1944 - 35
1945 - 35

and the US flyers have something like

1941 - 40/30 (navy, army)
1942 - 40/30
1943 - 40/35
1944 - 40/35
1945 - 50/40

This stuff is buried under one of the last couple of tabs in the SCENARIO tab, NOT under the PILOTS tab,in the scenario editor.

The replacement rate of the pilots is also listed there, and Japan is something like 1/10th that of the US.

Now is this (admittedly from memory) enough of a range gap? No way, IMHO. In 1944, the Japanese should be something like 30, maybe even 25, and the US should be 45/50. By 45, it should be 55/60 for the US, and 15/20 for the Japs.

Easy enough to mod. But would like to see it adjusted for all official scenarios.

[ny59giants]

Besides those air units that are restricted to"General Defense" commands in Japan and Formosa, they have those tied up in Manchuria that they can use to train up pilots. KB and Army fighters are going to benefit the most in the coming months. I "think" I just finished resizing my last eligible Val from 2 to 27 planes. Once I finish filling out my shortage in KB, there is a lot of NavB experienced pilots that will be highly trained by mid-42.
 
Developers may need to do:
1) Limit experienced gained by Japanese pilots through training to somewhere between 50 and 60.
2) Disallow those air units restricted from changing commands in Manchuria from having pilots transferred to Reserve until the Russians are activated. Right now you can train up a significant number with Nates.
3) Increase pilots op losses while in training mode.
4) "enter yours here"

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: jackyo123

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy



Correct me if I'm wrong, but I understand that the WiTP incremental improvement of 'basic' pilots fresh out of training school is gone. All pilots from the USAA or USN or Commonwealth come in at the same pathetic levels (it's 35, isn't it?) throughout the war. In WiTP, entry-level pilots for the USN, for example would be something like 60-65 in 1945. This higher caliber of replacement pilots was (and still is) very important for the allies.

I am quite certain that, when digging around in the scenario editor for one of the stock scenarios (maybe #1?) that the Japanese pilots begin to drop dramatically in starting experience in 1943 - goes something like

1941 - 35
1942 - 35
1943 - 35
1944 - 35
1945 - 35

Where's the dramatic drop in starting experience in 1943?

Agree with the allied starting experience. Way too low by comparison. I also agree that starting stats for IJNAF and IJAAF should erode in 1944 and 1945 to below 35 by comparison.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'm working on the next turn now - the one that may include the Allied carriers springing an ambush near Milne Bay, or perhaps blundering into an ambush near Milne Bay.  Four things:

1)  coastwatchers reported CV Shokaku at Gasmata.  I think she (and probably Zuikaku and other carriers) are providing LRCAP for the Japanese ships at Port Moresby.  Are these carriers here purely in a defensive posture, or is Miller planning his own ambush?

2)  the Japanese combat TF at PM includes CAs Myoko, Takao, and Atago and CLs Yura, Nagara, and Natori.  A tempting target indeed.

3)  one of my CVEs (Copahee) has Corsairs aboard.  Can CVEs handle Corsairs?  I wonder because I previously had a Corsair unit on Long Island and the Corsairs did NOT fly CAP or escort during the initial assault against Paramushiro.  Does anybody know for certain?

4)  As best I can tell Japanese patrol aircraft from Lunga did not pick up the Allied carrier TFs.  I don't think Miller knows they are in the area.

What do you guys think?  Should I spring the ambush or should I flee?  I'm inclined to give battle.

While the KB present may be distracted by providing LRCAP to the PM forces, it stands to reason that the KB may, in turn, be LRCAP'ed by Rabaul, Lae or other IJ bases in the area. I believe that Betty torpedo range is 17, so if you've venturing near Gasmata in an attempt to engage his carriers, you may come into easy Betty range out of Rabaul.

When you get near PNG, New Georgia or the Solomons, you're entering a comparative region of strength for Miller's forces. Unless you have some other visible means of support for your carriers, I'd advise caution in this position.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: jackyo123

The replacement rate of the pilots is also listed there, and Japan is something like 1/10th that of the US.

Now is this (admittedly from memory) enough of a range gap? No way, IMHO. In 1944, the Japanese should be something like 30, maybe even 25, and the US should be 45/50. By 45, it should be 55/60 for the US, and 15/20 for the Japs.

Easy enough to mod. But would like to see it adjusted for all official scenarios.

The bold part might be the key - when you have drawn all the pilots at the stated (I think you said 35) experience level, then you get the ones that are still in training and even lower than that. Go to the intel screen, replacement pilots, and look at the progression of basic training (not on-map training) versus experience.

[Canoerebel]

Hmmm, the intention isn't to tangle with Miller's carriers.  I wouldn't mind taking on a Mini-KB with my current force, but I don't want to tangle with a force of unknown strength that would include at least the two fleet carriers (Shokaku and Zuikaku).

My intention is to tangle with the combat TF at Port Moresby.  I can do that by placing my carriers fout or five or six hexes south of Milne Bay.  That is a long way from Rabaul and Lunga, but if Miller has a massive carrier force and moves them to that general area I could get hosed.

So, to roll the dice or not?

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: jackyo123

The replacement rate of the pilots is also listed there, and Japan is something like 1/10th that of the US.

Now is this (admittedly from memory) enough of a range gap? No way, IMHO. In 1944, the Japanese should be something like 30, maybe even 25, and the US should be 45/50. By 45, it should be 55/60 for the US, and 15/20 for the Japs.

Easy enough to mod. But would like to see it adjusted for all official scenarios.

The bold part might be the key - when you have drawn all the pilots at the stated (I think you said 35) experience level, then you get the ones that are still in training and even lower than that. Go to the intel screen, replacement pilots, and look at the progression of basic training (not on-map training) versus experience.

Ah, but the IJ (or allied) player will get more pilots of the 35 experience level by pumping up his TRACOM commitment. I don't know what the formula is (The Elf specifically maintained secrecy re: the formula), but clusters of 10 TRACOM instructors provide additional pilots at 35 exp. so that one doesn't have to get the 20-25 exp. ultra-sucky pilots.

I've got about 20 TRACOM fighter pilots in there now and it helps, but I really can't say how much...

[Canoerebel]

I've got to make the call in just a few minutes.  I think I'm going to roll the dice and try to nab the Japanese combat TF.  My thinking:

1)  The KB recently retired from a raid on Adak Island in which Miller took massive losses to his divebomber squadrons.  I don't think the KB could have retired to Japan (or Truk) and replaced those losses and made it to the Coral Sea.

2)  I don't think Miller would strip the DEI of carriers with a massive Allied force sitting at Darwin.  He probably expects a move on Timor at any moment.

3) So my best guess is that he has some carriers around Rabaul providing support for his ships, not in anticipation of a major carrier battle.

Miller could be outguessing me here - he might be expecting this move or he might have decided to commit all his available carriers to try to clobber BB Royal Sovereign.  But I'm betting not.

[Canoerebel]

Here's the final plan:
 
1)  In two days, the Allied carriers should reach a point six hexes SE of PM, six hexes SW of Milne, and five hexes north of Cooktown.  This position should allow the carriers to hit anything at PM or moving west toward Milne.  This position is 15 hexes south of Rabaul, hopefully distant enough to discourage Bettys from flying.  I have one squadron of P-38Es that will provide some LRCAP.
 
2)  I've loaded up the airfields at Horn Island, Portland Roads, Coen, Cooktown, and Cairns with bombers.  B-17s are set to hit the airfields at Milne and PM.  Most B-24s are similarly targeted, with two squadrons set for naval attack.  B-25s are set for naval attack.

[Chickenboy]

Get 'em Tiger.

[LoBaron]

Looking forward to this!
Good luck Canorebel. I kinda suspect that he assumes your CV´s are still licking their wounds on WC...

[Cathartes]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel


3)  one of my CVEs (Copahee) has Corsairs aboard.  Can CVEs handle Corsairs?  I wonder because I previously had a Corsair unit on Long Island and the Corsairs did NOT fly CAP or escort during the initial assault against Paramushiro.  Does anybody know for certain?

If the squadron says "carrier-capable" you're good to go. However, I don't think the first corsair models you get are carrier-capable.

[JeffroK]

Can you LRCAP your TF out of Cairns, Cooktown & Portkand Roads??

P38 & maybe P47 should cover them, even Beaufighters & Havocs can help absorb some of the blow.

[Canoerebel]

1) Uh oh on the Corsairs.  I doubt they are going to fly CAP.
 
2)  I do have one squadron of P-38s flying LRCAP from Cooktown.  I have P-40s and F4F-4s that won't have the legs to provide decent LRCAP at a distance of five hexes.  But if things break down and my ships take damage, they're set to retire to Cooktown, so they'll benefit some from land-based fighters.
 
3)  I have my Hellcats set at 30k and 60% CAP.  The Victorious fighters (Marlets and Sea Hurricanes) are set at 70% at 15k.  A handful of low experience F4F-4s are set at 5k just for the fun of it.  The Corsairs are set at about 37.5k, but as noted above I don't think they're going to fly.

[Canoerebel]

Have you ever put all your desire and creativity into setting a trap sure to snare the heart of the the pretty girl you've set your heart on, only to learn in the end it was all for naught?  Oh, the heartache!
 
Well, that's just happened to me.  It was probably the best series of moves I had made in the game.  I had used CLs to draw bigger Japanese CAs to the Port Moresby area.  Then I had employed Royal Sovereign to up the ante, knowing it would draw bigger ships and possibly the Mini-KB.  Then I moved the Allied carriers to Noumea so they would be in position to set the hook if Miller took the bait.
 
He took the bait and my carriers were in perfect position.  Miller loaded up Milne Bay with Bettys, but I knew he would and had 4EB set to clobber the airfield.  I had thought of everything....
 
But only 18 Avengers sortied and none of them scored hits against the Japanese cruiser TF.  That's right:  zero for eighteen.
 
Meanwhile, Bettys sortie and score hits against a variety of merchant ships around Cooktown and Portland Roads.
 
It wasn't all bad - some Bettys and Zeros came after the Allied carriers and got chewed alive.  The Allied 4EB also destroyed some Japanese aircraft on the ground.
 
I'm actually not that disappointed.  I'm glad my carriers didn't bumble into a trap, and I think it's good that Miller know's they are not too far from the DEI - it'll keep him honest.
 
So I'll probably send the carriers over toward Suva where they can help with the Tarawa invasion.  Tarawa has about 25k troops - I'm guessing two mixed brigades and some base force personnel?  I have three Marine regiments, one Army regiment, one Army separate battalion, and a few other units.  As I type this I realize that this doesn't sound like enough to me - how about you?  I probably ought to stand down and await the new Army division that is at San Diego.  I can prep it for Tarawa and move on that base later in the game.
 
So, I'll send the carriers somewhere safe and await arrival of four CVs and at least two CVLs in the next 40 days.

[John 3rd]

I've certainly been there in our games Sir!
 
As I see it there was no great disaster and that is a good thing.  You've got tons of extra shipping by this point in the war so no great loss.  You certainly spooked him and that might lead to more opportunities.  Could you pull back to Noumea instead?  Would put you in a lot closer to this Theatre while being in good support range of Tarawa.
 
As to Tarawa, I would--this is strange for me--advise caution and get that Infantry Division before moving...
 

[LoBaron]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: jackyo123

The replacement rate of the pilots is also listed there, and Japan is something like 1/10th that of the US.

Now is this (admittedly from memory) enough of a range gap? No way, IMHO. In 1944, the Japanese should be something like 30, maybe even 25, and the US should be 45/50. By 45, it should be 55/60 for the US, and 15/20 for the Japs.

Easy enough to mod. But would like to see it adjusted for all official scenarios.

The bold part might be the key - when you have drawn all the pilots at the stated (I think you said 35) experience level, then you get the ones that are still in training and even lower than that. Go to the intel screen, replacement pilots, and look at the progression of basic training (not on-map training) versus experience.

Ah, but the IJ (or allied) player will get more pilots of the 35 experience level by pumping up his TRACOM commitment. I don't know what the formula is (The Elf specifically maintained secrecy re: the formula), but clusters of 10 TRACOM instructors provide additional pilots at 35 exp. so that one doesn't have to get the 20-25 exp. ultra-sucky pilots.

I've got about 20 TRACOM fighter pilots in there now and it helps, but I really can't say how much...

I think the real issue here is that the Allied players don´t find the triggers yet that force a war of attrition.
1/10 in pilot replacements entering from basic training is a factor that can tilt the balance after 43 and let it increase in the years after.

20 TRACOM aces don´t change anything there. If used properly the gap gets wider and wider.

If the Allied player can
- open a multi front war in range of Japanese ressources
- so force the Japanese player into a war of attrition because he has to defend with what he has
- balance the airframes from the beginning to get the maximum numbers of airframes into combat
- keep the pressure because he can cope with losses

then the effect should be brutal with 1/10 pilot replacement rate, no mater how big the difference in exp is when they leave basic training.

What the Japanese player can do to counter this:
- don´t fight a war of attrition
- fight only when the numbers are available to assure favourable loss rates
- put the pight on his own turf to minimize pilot losses
- build up a pool of ressources that he can afford to give up seemingly valuable areas

Historically the attrition began in ´43 in NG and Burma, in game this could be the same area if the Japanese player plans on
longer terms than ´44. To start fighting when the Allies push to DEI could be too late.
I think Canorebel is VERY close to the point where the fight starts to tilt in the attrition direction. If the push to DEI is a success, which I´m
already nearly sure, then Miller is in big trouble, maybe even faster than historical. No CV´s needed for occasional island hopping there.
And as soon as the bases are ready for 4eng to advance deep into the area its close to end-game.

I think we all get misleaded atm because the Allied players still are ready to accept much higher losses than they historically did and
the Japanese tries to minimize the losses because he knows whats coming at him. But I would still bet that the above points lead
to a Japanese breakdown even faster than in WWII if its done right, including the need to either send untrained pilots into
combat or accepting high ground losses due to bombing raids.

Canorebel, when you get deeper into the DEI´s theres not much space Miller can pull back to anymore.