The Power of Inexperience / GreyJoy(A)-Rader(J)

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: DOCUP

Grey

Couple of questions on your amphib landings. Did you have your follow up TFS ready? I'm talking about support troops, extra supplies etc. Were they at sea close by to drop off there contents when the islands were taken?

I also agree with Bullwinkle and the others the Solomons looks good. As your advisors have mentions to look to the future. The Solomons make that easy to do. Or atleast I think it does. Example take Canal several months later take another island, and so on till you reach Rabual. I can't give you real specifics about your game because I don't remember what is going on in this area.

Example
Day one: D-day land and take Canal

I usually work north from Noumea, to Luganville, then over to Tulagi and the Canal. Luganville is highly useful for many tasks.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: beppi

Ind 42 Squads are stronger than the old type and that strength might influence the comming battles.

I agree with this, but, given the huge pile of Indian LCUs sitting at an isolated Karachi, he needs to be very aware of the supply costs of upgrading whole division TOEs.

Mostly it will be squad type upgrades not the whole TOE. The firepower advantage is probably well worth it to upgrade the squads.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: beppi

Ind 42 Squads are stronger than the old type and that strength might influence the comming battles.

I agree with this, but, given the huge pile of Indian LCUs sitting at an isolated Karachi, he needs to be very aware of the supply costs of upgrading whole division TOEs.

Mostly it will be squad type upgrades not the whole TOE. The firepower advantage is probably well worth it to upgrade the squads.

It's load cost in points converted to supply points on a 1:1, right? I agree that the firepower increase is very useful, but we're talking thousands of supply points, no? If he runs out the whole stack goes to 25% effectivness. He's getting a few thou in per week now, but he could run out of transports at Aden before the Med opens, and in a long seige where his opponent knocks down Forts 9 over and over he's going to eat many, many thousands re-building. As I said before, this is a supply campaign (and thus a naval campaign), with every other consideration taking second seat.

[witpqs]

Anti-Soft goes from 16 to 18, Anti-Armor goes from 5 to 15. If the Empire pulls into Karachi and decides to sit there for months without attacking then it doesn't matter what combat power you have on defense. But is that what we are really talking about? Is the Empire going to bring all those forces to Karachi and supply them all those months without attacking? I say no, he will attack and having that extra firepower on defense will be critical. YMMV [8D]

[Saros]

I would disagree. With 6 thousand AV and lvl 9 forts in a 2x Hex there is simply no way the empire will ever take Karachi by force. His only option is an extended siege. At this point supply is king and you need to preserve every single point possible.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Anti-Soft goes from 16 to 18, Anti-Armor goes from 5 to 15. If the Empire pulls into Karachi and decides to sit there for months without attacking then it doesn't matter what combat power you have on defense. But is that what we are really talking about? Is the Empire going to bring all those forces to Karachi and supply them all those months without attacking? I say no, he will attack and having that extra firepower on defense will be critical. YMMV [8D]

Japanese armor is so-so. Infantry increases are good, yes, but so is supply.

I absolutley think Rader will attack, to burn up supplies and keep morale inside Karachi down. The Indian Army leadership is average at best. The Japanese have the supply machines at Bombay and Calcutta cranking out tonnage, and he has complete freedom of the seas to bring fuel into Bombay from northern Sumatra for HI-related supply production. He also has enough LCUs to use Reserve mode to rest his units in rotation while on the attack, and about every engineer unit in the OOB to knock down forts over and over to further eat supplies.

GJ needs to either begin to operate at sea to relieve Karachi, at some risk to his navies, act to wait out the seige until May 1943, then rush a huge re-supply effort into Karachi from the Atlantic/Med to make the seige fail, or increase op tempo elsewhere to an extent Rader cannot ignore his advances. Or all three.

[witpqs]

How many AV is the Empire bringing?

Also, AV is NOT the last word on ground combat in this model. The firepower of each AV (each squad) is critical, as is the Experience, Morale, Disruption, Fatigue, and Leadership at the unit and various HQ levels.

[beppi]

It is true that the upgrades cost supply, and to win the battle for Karachi supply will be crucial. But there has to be a plan to bring supply in, even if it costs a lot of xAKs. The siege of Karachi will take as long as there is no counter invasion in India which threats and encirclement of the units there. A 4k siege force is more than enough to contain Karachi and the captured Indian supply production is more than enough to support quite a large force. Supply for Japan can be a problem if heavy fighting occurs but if the units just sit around i doubt that it is that hard.

So GreyJoy get a plan to ship supply from cape town to Karachi, you will need it. 500k supply sound a lot but without some additional supply convoys Karachi will run out of supply.

If you have 3500 squads at Karachi it will cost how much to upgrade ? 30k, 40k ? I do not think that Rader will just sit there and waits, he will attack from time to time and even defensive combat with such a huge army will burn so many supply that there will be supply problems for the defender. You can easily burn 15k in just one combat turn. So get a plan to bring supply, a strategic plan which might take 2 or 3 months to execute, to jump just short distances over the map from wormhole to wormhole, which might cost a 20 or 30 or 40 xAks but you will need to ship supply to Karachi. Calculate at least 500k - 1000k more supply.

In my opinion battles in the game are won most of the time just on an strategic level, and most of them just on the supply level.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: beppi

So GreyJoy get a plan to ship supply from cape town to Karachi, you will need it. 500k supply sound a lot but without some additional supply convoys Karachi will run out of supply.

I think Rader learned well the lessons of the CR/Q-Ball India battle.

I asked GJ weeks ago how much sealift he had at Aden, and I believe he answered about 75 hulls. These have to last until May 1943 unless he can suppliment them. Additionally, they are all he has to lift in five divisions of LOD reenforcements if he chooses to do that. Rader just has to atrit each cycle by a couple of ships to essentially take Aden out of the picture by the end of 1942.

To get more supply and shipping to the Mideast GJ has to run the gauntlet. Rader took DG and Socotra, which Q-Ball did not. Even if GJ uses Mombassa he has to expose what would be quite substantial convoys to several days' exposure on the run from Mombasa to the Aden inbound wormhole. And again, those same ships have to risk the run down to Karachi, with surface TFs, subs, mines, and perhpas the KB/mini-KB popping in and out of the picture. A tough row to hoe.

These realities are one reason I've urged GJ several times to ground, or nearly so, his air forces at Karachi. Running 4E raids is insanity when supply is your only lifeline to victory. He's risking what?, half-a-million POWs and the entire Indian, most of the British, and a lot of the Aussie land forces to run pinprick 4E raids which accomplish nothing strategically.

Supply is king. Supply buys time. Time buys reenforcements. Reenforcements buy the win.

[beppi]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: beppi

So GreyJoy get a plan to ship supply from cape town to Karachi, you will need it. 500k supply sound a lot but without some additional supply convoys Karachi will run out of supply.

I think Rader learned well the lessons of the CR/Q-Ball India battle.

I asked GJ weeks ago how much sealift he had at Aden, and I believe he answered about 75 hulls. These have to last until May 1943 unless he can suppliment them. Additionally, they are all he has to lift in five divisions of LOD reenforcements if he chooses to do that. Rader just has to atrit each cycle by a couple of ships to essentially take Aden out of the picture by the end of 1942.

To get more supply and shipping to the Mideast GJ has to run the gauntlet. Rader took DG and Socotra, which Q-Ball did not. Even if GJ uses Mombassa he has to expose what would be quite substantial convoys to several days' exposure on the run from Mombasa to the Aden inbound wormhole. And again, those same ships have to risk the run down to Karachi, with surface TFs, subs, mines, and perhpas the KB/mini-KB popping in and out of the picture. A tough row to hoe.

These realities are one reason I've urged GJ several times to ground, or nearly so, his air forces at Karachi. Running 4E raids is insanity when supply is your only lifeline to victory. He's risking what?, half-a-million POWs and the entire Indian, most of the British, and a lot of the Aussie land forces to run pinprick 4E raids which accomplish nothing strategically.

Supply is king. Supply buys time. Time buys reenforcements. Reenforcements buy the win.

The game is not that easy to learn and everyone makes mistakes. And it is even harder to correctly plan into the future. I agree that 4E burn a lot of supplies and stopping the attacks would buy some additional time. But nevertheless the supply in Karachi is a potential threat, so it is necessarily to get a plan to deal with that threat sometimes in the future. It is not possible to say when it might get a problem, but when it gets a problem the convoys have to be ready. To begin to react then when the supply is low is a reaction to the situation and will lead to sure loss of Karachi. It might result in the loss of even a 100 xAKs, but this loss it by no way comparable to a loss of Karachi.

There should be a plan to begin the shipment of at least a half a million tons of supply to Aden right now. The supply can sit there, safe and protected and might be necessary sometimes in the future, or maybe not cause everything changes during the war. But it will deal no harm and opens options. For a potential counter invasion you need at least an other half a million so better ship a million tons of supply to Aden.

To act good on a tactical level you need strategic situation which allows good tactical options. And close to 0 supply in Aden relying only on the little supply which arrives through convoys prior to mid 1943 does not provide any options.

[GreyJoy]

I'm in a hotel room with a bad wi-fii connection...typing on my blackberry so i won't be able to reply to all your awesome replies guys! Thanks!7

Anyway, just to let you know...at the moment i have 6879 AVs between Karachi and Hydebaran with 340k supplies (more 6000 arrived today)...so let's say 6500 AVs with say 300k supplies beyond 9 forts and light urban...that's the right math i'd say when Karachi will be completely sieged (following the actual rates of supply consumption under strong air bombings)
After the next turn end we'll have those 72 spits+72 hurris to count upon...

I'm not getting the discussion about Ind 42 Squads...the pacthes, the upgrade process and the supply consumption...at the moment all my units have replacements turned on...do i have to switch them off??

...looking forward to come back...i NEED to play this game...[:D]

Bye guys...thanks for all your inputs!!!!!!

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: beppi

There should be a plan to begin the shipment of at least a half a million tons of supply to Aden right now. The supply can sit there, safe and protected and might be necessary sometimes in the future, or maybe not cause everything changes during the war. But it will deal no harm and opens options. For a potential counter invasion you need at least an other half a million so better ship a million tons of supply to Aden.

I agree that he needs more supply than he has to get to May 1943. I also agree he needs to be prepared to lose a lot of ships getting it to Karachi. The point about grounding the 4Es was in addition to this main point.

However, if he determines to massivley resupply Aden, and then Karachi, he has to also commit a large portion of his naval power to the theater to get the merchants to their destinations. Sending convoys from Mombassa to Aden unprotected from the already-present IJN would be suicidal. Rader has the naval search in place to see them coming and intercept them. It would be a slaughter without escort, including air cover.

That might delay the beginning of ops in the Pacific, but losing half-a-million men and a sub-continent can't happen either.

Lastly, I firmly agree with you that it is past time to get the metal moving. He's dithered with his air games for weeks. The fate of 1/3 of the map is in the blocks.

[beppi]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

I'm in a hotel room with a bad wi-fii connection...typing on my blackberry so i won't be able to reply to all your awesome replies guys! Thanks!7

Anyway, just to let you know...at the moment i have 6879 AVs between Karachi and Hydebaran with 340k supplies (more 6000 arrived today)...so let's say 6500 AVs with say 300k supplies beyond 9 forts and light urban...that's the right math i'd say when Karachi will be completely sieged (following the actual rates of supply consumption under strong air bombings)
After the next turn end we'll have those 72 spits+72 hurris to count upon...

I'm not getting the discussion about Ind 42 Squads...the pacthes, the upgrade process and the supply consumption...at the moment all my units have replacements turned on...do i have to switch them off??

...looking forward to come back...i NEED to play this game...[:D]

Bye guys...thanks for all your inputs!!!!!!

I will try to describe how a proper upgrade process is done, all numbers are examples.

For example you have 250 Ind 42 squads in the pool right now.
Division A has 300 Ind 41 squads right now and a TOE of 330.
Division B has 260 Ind 41 squads right now and a Toe of 330 too.

To upgrade you division A to Ind 42 squads you either need 301 Ind 42 squads in the pool or you need to split the division into its 3 sub parts. If you split your division A and always keep the replacements on, the result will be 3 sub parts with 100 Ind 42 squads in each. As the TOE of each sub part is 110, each sub part will drain 10 additional Ind 42 squads (this takes a few days) and leaves you with 220 Ind 42 squads. But you do not want to reduce your pool as you have a lot of divisions to upgrade. So turn off the replacements for each sub-part as soon as the upgrade is done. That reduces the drain on the pool and you need to keep your pool as high as possible as long as not all your divisions are upgraded. You need to put your units into rest mode to do a proper device upgrade. In addition set all other devices which an Indianian division has (6 pounder, 2pounder, 25pounder and so on) to stockpile (you can do that in the pool overview). After division A has finished its upgrade proceed to division B and then to C and so on. This allows you to upgrade all your divisions to the Ind Inf 42 squad type which should be the goal.

You do not want to have one of your three sub parts with 6 pounder guns, no devices left in the pool. This will prevent you from recombining the three subparts in the division, and you always want full divisions as their staying power is greater than if it is split into sub-parts and the losses are lower (so do not forget to stockpile all other devices with might upgrade).

In general, turn the replacements off for all you units in India. Replacements take supply and you do not want to convert you precious supply into support squads or engineer squads right now (and all of you indian divisions lack a lot of that squads).

For the supply problem, 300k supply is less than expected, thought you had 500k. 6,5k AV will cost around 50k supply each month even without combat. With combat that amount can be much much higher and in combination with air attacks i would estimate 200k each month right now in that case. So you have supply for around 2 more months in India.

For up at least one 100 xAK supply convoy at the west coast (96 xAks, 4DDs), better are two 100 ship convoys. Fill them with supply and turn the unload option off. Move them through panama to cape town. There it gets tricky to get the convoys to Aden as the Mediterranean passage is blocked until 5-43. You should try to leave the back hole as far north as possible (south of Italian east africa) and directly enter the wormhole east of Italian east Africa to Aden.

The problem is Scotra, and your enemy controls Scotra. So if anyhow possible time your movement as good possible and try to avoid KB being around Scotra if you cannot defend your TFs with your own carriers. An other idea would be to bombard Scotra (from a black hole) a turn before your supply convoys move to kill of some of the possible Netties there. I would in general think about moving your carriers in the that area to protect your transportation TFs.

[Bullwinkle58]

A good summary for me as well. Thanks.

A question: do you (or anyone) have a number for supplies required to rebuild former Forts 9 back to 9 if they are knocked down to eight? The manual details that at least 25k supplies are required to begin construction for 7, 8, or 9 level, but not how much the cost is to move that last level. I know it's "a lot" but I've never gotten to forts 9, or if I did I didn't log the supply cost as it would have been at a base where I had a million-plus.

I think Rader will use the Fort rules to further drain Karachi's supplies.

[beppi]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

A good summary for me as well. Thanks.

A question: do you (or anyone) have a number for supplies required to rebuild former Forts 9 back to 9 if they are knocked down to eight? The manual details that at least 25k supplies are required to begin construction for 7, 8, or 9 level, but not how much the cost is to move that last level. I know it's "a lot" but I've never gotten to forts 9, or if I did I didn't log the supply cost as it would have been at a base where I had a million-plus.

I think Rader will use the Fort rules to further drain Karachi's supplies.

No but i remember to have read somewhere that you need around 120 - 150k supply to bring forts from lvl 0 to lvl 9. The consumption is not linear and lower lvls cost less than higher ones. So i would estimate that lvl 8 to lvl 9 costs around 50-60k supply. But you do not need a lvl 9 fort with 6,5k AV there, lvl 6 is more than enough. And it is very very costly to bring a lvl 9 fort in light urban hex against 6,5k defender down. In my game i tried it and i suffered more than 2000 disabled squads to bring the forts only 1 lvl down (9k attacker against 3,5k defender, open terrain).

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: beppi

No but i remember to have read somewhere that you need around 120 - 150k supply to bring forts from lvl 0 to lvl 9. The consumption is not linear and lower lvls cost less than higher ones. So i would estimate that lvl 8 to lvl 9 costs around 50-60k supply. But you do not need a lvl 9 fort with 6,5k AV there, lvl 6 is more than enough. And it is very very costly to bring a lvl 9 fort in light urban hex against 6,5k defender down. In my game i tried it and i suffered more than 2000 disabled squads to bring the forts only 1 lvl down (9k attacker against 3,5k defender, open terrain).

I think 50k sounds directionally correct. The Forts model is massively non-linear in cost.

I'm not sure about the rest of your statement. Rader has just about every engineer unit in his OOB at Karachi and can certainly set up a rotating resting system. Lower forts for GJ gets him into a casualty--disruption--replacement-supply consumption loop which high forts moderates. It's far easier to knock Forts 6 to Forts 5 than Forts 9 to Forts 8. With his LCU count advantaqge, Rader might get GJ into a death spiral if he can get forts to 4, much easier for a start of six than 9. Regardless, GJ has FOrts 9 now, so the issue is going to be re-building. He's squeezed on supply either way he goes, either to rebuild, or buy replacements for higher casualty numbers.

I doubt in your game the prize for winning the seige was 500,000 POWs, and most of the western map. I think Rader goes all in now that he's passed the line.

[GreyJoy]

Hi guys! Finally back on track!
 
I just sent the turn to Rader...
 
I checked...almost all my Indian LCUs have already upgraded to Squad42 type...so that's not really a problem. I'll fill them pretty easily.
For what concerns forts and supplies i really don't know...
 
Anyway...lots of good hints to reply...The Saratoga has 30 fld damage and she'll now limping back to PH chased down by what seems to be the whole japanese sub fleet (remember that he retired every single sub from karachi after my final victory on the aerial ASW battle fought there). Hopefully she'll be arrive at PH for repair while the rest of the fleet will replenish and will move to the Gilberts.
 
For what concerns the Solomons i'll need to gather some troops from the aborted Bonin/Marcus/Wake operation. Will take some time.
 
At Karachi i now need to find the right time to get my spits on air...cause every day 600 fighters sweep the base, followed by 300 bombers escorted by 300 fighters...really too much[:o].
 
Still no sign of the KB...
 
Will need some time to re-read all your comments and reply to them...please be patient [;)]

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: beppi

No but i remember to have read somewhere that you need around 120 - 150k supply to bring forts from lvl 0 to lvl 9. The consumption is not linear and lower lvls cost less than higher ones. So i would estimate that lvl 8 to lvl 9 costs around 50-60k supply. But you do not need a lvl 9 fort with 6,5k AV there, lvl 6 is more than enough. And it is very very costly to bring a lvl 9 fort in light urban hex against 6,5k defender down. In my game i tried it and i suffered more than 2000 disabled squads to bring the forts only 1 lvl down (9k attacker against 3,5k defender, open terrain).

I think 50k sounds directionally correct. The Forts model is massively non-linear in cost.

I'm not sure about the rest of your statement. Rader has just about every engineer unit in his OOB at Karachi and can certainly set up a rotating resting system. Lower forts for GJ gets him into a casualty--disruption--replacement-supply consumption loop which high forts moderates. It's far easier to knock Forts 6 to Forts 5 than Forts 9 to Forts 8. With his LCU count advantaqge, Rader might get GJ into a death spiral if he can get forts to 4, much easier for a start of six than 9. Regardless, GJ has FOrts 9 now, so the issue is going to be re-building. He's squeezed on supply either way he goes, either to rebuild, or buy replacements for higher casualty numbers.

I doubt in your game the prize for winning the seige was 500,000 POWs, and most of the eastern map. I think Rader goes all in now that he's passed the line.

I wasn't sure so I asked Michael in the Tech Support forum. Higher forts do reduce the incidence of port and airfield supply hits from aerial and naval bombardment. So, reducing forts is also potentially part of a supply-killing strategy for Rader.

[terje439]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
The Saratoga has 30 fld damage and she'll now limping back to PH chased down by what seems to be the whole japanese sub fleet (remember that he retired every single sub from karachi after my final victory on the aerial ASW battle fought there).

Some of the others will have to chip in here;
-does CV airgroups train while in dock? If so this would eb a good time to get some of your permanent "carrier capable" squadrons upgraded to "carrier trained".

Terje

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

I wasn't sure so I asked Michael in the Tech Support forum. Higher forts do reduce the incidence of port and airfield supply hits from aerial and naval bombardment. So, reducing forts is also potentially part of a supply-killing strategy for Rader.

Excellent point.