ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
In any game where the Japanese player is willing to shoot for AV (and has the skill and experience to do so), Sir Robin looks like a dangerous strategy!
A lot of IJ players poo-poo AV. While it's certainly okay to prefer the long haul, their comments often imply a negative sentiment, as though they were contemplating petting a dog with the mange - "AV? That's something I don't even consider."
Sir Robin would have worked if the Allies used small limited probing early offensives (and the game would have probably been over Jan 1, 1945). But rather this early in the game, the Allies simply can't throw down 2 division and a ton of support units and think the island can hold once naval superiority is lost. Continually reinforcing that failure is what killed the Allies in this game, ihmo.
I think the reason why most Japanese players poo-poo AV is that it is viewed as an either or -- do I play for AV or for late game? In a scenario 1 game, Japan simply is starved economically and with ground troops. The only other player I can think of that has achieved a scenario 1 AV is Mr. Kane who I think has done it twice. Obvert might have been able to do it against Jocke, but decided against going for AV (but that game is now a many patches and betas ago). As I think now about that game, I bet Obvert could have gotten AV if he had tried (I recall a Perth invasion might have done it, throw in strategic bombing of Oz -- which hadn't been done before to the best of my recall and Japan would likely have gotten 4-1 sometime in early 43).
So for a player to start a multi year game with the Japanese goal of AV...and then not achieving that goal...well, then it is really hard for Japan to keep an interest in playing the game since you have spent all Japan's riches early. There have been a lot of JFB's that quit early because of it.
A final word, so much of Japanese defensive strength comes late to the game thru upgrades and reinforcements...that if the Allies can accelerate the timetable Japan simply lacks the forces to defend and simply falls over at an accelerating pace.
