The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

I don't have complete information since recon is sporadic (Manila and Atimonan every day, Aparri and San Fernando and others irregularly). But it looks like he has more than 100k, with 45k at Atimonan and something in that neighborhood at Manila.

[Canoerebel]

Supply was also a limiting factor. A 100k or 150k army needs a lot to advance and wage war. But Legaspi was a 1/0 base when taken, Naga was fairly small, and the bases up the peninsula were small. So supply limits were in place. It would take time to build the bases to raise the supply stores...time that would allow John to reinforce. And he'd have those big airfield to hit me, I'd have had none for protection.

I'm guessing that John is thrilled that I didn't move on Manila immediately. If so that says a lot about his defenses...and it says a lot about his failure to grasp the realities of what it takes to wage war on the scale involved in a deep invasion taking small bases to advance on a big enemy base that should be - or will be soon - strongly defended.

Coup-de-main on Manila sounds like a lot of sparkle and fun until you think it through.

[jwolf]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Coup-de-main on Manila sounds like a lot of sparkle and fun until you think it through.

My take: high risk, moderate reward. Based on your position and success so far, no deal for such an op. For a player with a worse position, maybe you have take that kind of gamble.

[ny59giants]

Allied TB pilots - How are your CV based TBs overall experience levels? If I remember right, your were disappointed in how many got through to get TT hits the last time you used them in mass. I think all players can agree upon the need to train them first in NavT skill. Where there may be some disagreement is what skill should be #2. I was in NavB camp for a long time, but I changed over to GrdB as there are limited opportunities to use either NavT or NavB enough to raise the pilots or the overall air groups experience levels. My observations have shown that until an air group gets experience levels up, the amount of hits stay relatively low for 2e and/or 4e bomber groups. I've started to train up my American TB CV groups in GrdB and then find a relative safe base to use my USN TB groups to get much needed experience. I'm hoping this pays off when the CV vs CV clash does happen. Could you send some of your TB CV groups from DS to bases in Philippines to bomb a base/LCU on 'milk runs' to get their experience up, but be close enough to fly back on their parent CV when needed??

[witpqs]

I don't know details about it, but I recall developer(s) saying that for TB pilots there is some skill transfer of NavT to NavB. I've noted that good TB NavT pilots do a decent job with bombs on naval targets.

[Canoerebel]

4/20/44

A quietly productive day as KB retired towards Truk. Details on map.

[Lokasenna]

Where are your paratroop units? [;)]

[Canoerebel]

I have two paratroop units in the PI - 1st Australian, which has been 100% prepped for Manila for months, and 503rd USA, which is 77% prepped for a base that auto-flipped a few turns back.

[paullus99]

Could be put to good use taking an island or two, which won't require prep.

[Canoerebel]

On December 1, I responded to a Forumite who had guessed what Fun House was targeting. Here's what I wrote:

"The troops are preparing for bases in the Philippines, with Legaspi, Naga, Cebu and a few others as the core. These were wide open, until recently, but John is beginning to attend to them now.

"The advantage to the PI is that it's proximate to the "Big Tent" area, both for receiving aircraft and drawing supplies and fuel.

"The most recent SigInt is that 56th Div. is bound for Cebu (or maybe it was Catoblan, which is also important to me). If he keeps up the reinforcements, I'll shift [parts of message redacted to maintain OpSec] ...Fuel will be a critical issue, so I'll probably bring 500k to 750k aboard ships and have more waiting in the DEI. Aircraft won't be a major problem, because I have a large air force in India that will shift over."

I began planning (and prepping for) Fun House in the early autumn of 1943 after selecting the PI as my target. At the time, I was pretty sure many bases were open due to lack of base-building activity and SigInt mentions. But D-Day would be more than six months in the future, so I had no idea if the targets would remain weakly defended or if John would move to strongly reinforce. I did see some signs of reinforcements inbound to the heart of the region, but the units involved were weak and the reports sporadic. Much of what I saw indicated that John was focusing on Mindanao and Java. Then the whole Celebes operation came up and drew John's full attention for more than a month. So I was pretty sure - but not positive - that the Fun House targets were vacant or weakly defended.

Naga and Legaspi were always the heart of the operation. Those bases have huge potential and I was nearly positive John wasn't attending to them. There was a chance that Fun House would open with a carrier battle victory, in which case I was prepared to move on Manila since Death Star could then impose a strong blockade. But if there wasn't such a victory, I knew a move on Manila was highly unlikely: I wouldn't have the infrastructure in place to support such a move before John could strongly reinforce.

Accordingly, Fun House was built on the premise that it would likely turn into a long-term operation meant to seize, hold and build important bases while preparing for eventual decisive naval and land engagements.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: paullus99
Could be put to good use taking an island or two, which won't require prep.

Not worth it. Anything out there important enough to take is worth using amphibious assault with serious troops to hold them securely. I have lots of fast transports and infantry. Anything not big enough to warrant amphibious assault doesn't warrant using precious airborne troops, which will then be disrupted and will have to be retrieved for future airborne assault ops.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Allied TB pilots - How are your CV based TBs overall experience levels? If I remember right, your were disappointed in how many got through to get TT hits the last time you used them in mass. I think all players can agree upon the need to train them first in NavT skill. Where there may be some disagreement is what skill should be #2. I was in NavB camp for a long time, but I changed over to GrdB as there are limited opportunities to use either NavT or NavB enough to raise the pilots or the overall air groups experience levels. My observations have shown that until an air group gets experience levels up, the amount of hits stay relatively low for 2e and/or 4e bomber groups. I've started to train up my American TB CV groups in GrdB and then find a relative safe base to use my USN TB groups to get much needed experience. I'm hoping this pays off when the CV vs CV clash does happen. Could you send some of your TB CV groups from DS to bases in Philippines to bomb a base/LCU on 'milk runs' to get their experience up, but be close enough to fly back on their parent CV when needed??

My CV TBF pilots are fairly well qualified. Here's a sample from Bunker Hill.

My CVE TBF pilots aren't quite as qualified, but they're decent. Most gained higher skill levels by training and then flying ASW missions. A fair number of my CVE TBF squadrons are devoted to sub suppression, especially when I know KB isn't lurking.

[Canoerebel]

The use and non-use of bombardments offers another interesting insight into the acceptance and selection of tradeoffs.

I think all of us enjoy a good bombardment - sicking the Kongos or Iowas on a juicy enemy base, tearing up airfields, destroying aircraft, and wearing out enemy troops.

Bombardments can be very effective and are fun, so we naturally tend to look for opportunities to use them.

In the case of Fun House, I haven't used a single bombardment. I don't think I used a bombardment in Big Tent until weeks into the op, while trying to soften up Ambon.

Why my reticence? It's not because bombardments are risky (they are, for reasons that each of us has learned by trial and error). It's because bombardments use a heckuva lot of ammo, meaning your combat ships are temporarily vulnerable to enemy attack or have to retire to a port where they can re-arm, assuming you have a port and the necessary AKE/AK/AD etc. to replenish. All of that takes time and effort.

But above all, my concern is the weakness of my combat ships. John likes to commit his in combat, when he has any left, so I always have to plan for hot and heavy battles.

So if I'm reticent about using bombardments, how have I managed to massive invasions while engaging in just a single bombardment target? By choosing objectives that are weakly held or undefended. That's not the only criteria for target selection, but it's one of them.

I have used bombardments to good effect - especially at Horn Island, Gove and Ambon. And those were fun!

[jwolf]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

But above all, my concern is the weakness of my combat ships. John likes to commit his in combat, when he has any left, so I always have to plan for hot and heavy battles.

Is this still true? Sure, John likes to use his capital ships a lot -- but I don't think he's looking for a serious surface fight with them. Not after the losses he's already taken. Rather, as I see it he goes after softer targets: shore bombardments and merchant shipping. Do you think he's really trying to arrange a big surface fight at this point?

[Canoerebel]

We just engaged in a pretty serious surface combat nine days ago.

Kaigun is weak enough that he can't afford to suffer any more defeats, on the one hand, but he's desperate on the other hand. These are tight waters close to some big enemy airfields. Knife fights can break out at any time. So until I take control of the theater and feel secure, I'm proceeding pretty cautiously.

You larger question may be: why not use bombardments now, since Kaigun is weak. I do have the opportunity now since I can replenish at Legaspi or Naga and since I have overwhelming force while KB and Kaigun are far away. But I don't have any targets worth the relatively modest risk involved. I'm not ready to move on any of his bigger bases, and Manila is too risky (mines, shore guns, etc.). His army at Atimonan is the only possibility. I have my eyes on it, but I have higher priority missions for the next few weeks.

[Canoerebel]

Since I'm a flexible, pliable, winsome sort, who after gentle prodding looks at things more closely (sometimes), I've decided to try bombarding Atimonan. This will coincide with the commencement of the 4EB campaign. If both components go well, John may flinch a bit. I'm usually leery of bombardments near enemy bases, but I don't think he has much in the way of strike aircraft in the vicinity at the moment.

I'm also proceeding with the little campaign to occupy islands on the South China Sea.

The real purpose of all this activity is to drive up the stakes, increasing the pressure John will feel to commit KB. I hope.

[BillBrown]

You are doing a fine job CR, time to bump your thread to the top.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Since I'm a flexible, pliable, winsome sort, who after gentle prodding looks at things more closely (sometimes), I've decided to try bombarding Atimonan. This will coincide with the commencement of the 4EB campaign. If both components go well, John may flinch a bit. I'm usually leery of bombardments near enemy bases, but I don't think he has much in the way of strike aircraft in the vicinity at the moment.

I'm also proceeding with the little campaign to occupy islands on the South China Sea.

The real purpose of all this activity is to drive up the stakes, increasing the pressure John will feel to commit KB. I hope.

You should not have any problems if you're working out of Naga. It's only a few hexes - even the prewar BBs could bombard.

[bradfordkay]

Dan, my comments were not based upon any knowledge of what John has on Luzon but rather an indication of how I think when I go on the offensive. I like to land at multiple places at once (the same as you) partly because doing so dilutes any attacks upon the invasion forces - though it can dilute the air cover over those bases.

But, I like to build up all those bases as quickly as possible into an interlocking air defense. It seems to me that landing at a bunch of bases and then only building one or two up quickly is not taking full advantage of the audacious landings. If I were landing where you are and didn't have enough engineers to quickly build up Samar and Cebu into supporting bases then I would have driven for Atimonan and the next base (Locerno? - I don't have my game open and the mouse over isn't working on your map!) as quickly as possible. One advantage of driving forward is that some of that supply you are worried about spoiling due to base supply limits will go forward with the troops.

Anyway, those are my thoughts. Not a serious criticism of your actions but rather a sharing of ideas.

[CaptBeefheart]

I don't think you need my support, but under the circumstance of a somewhat intact KB in play, I'm sure your Legaspi plan was the prudent course of action.

Let me reiterate that you guys are doing a great job entertaining and providing food for thought to the peanut gallery. [&o]

Cheers,
CC