Shattered Vow

[vlcz]

Great anailys LoBaron, I would like to put the stress in this fragment..

ORIGINAL: LoBaron
...I think we all get misleaded atm because the Allied players still are ready to accept much higher losses than they historically did and
the Japanese tries to minimize the losses because he knows whats coming at him.

[Canoerebel]

6/18/43 to 6/21/43
 
SWPac:  Fizzle, fizzle!  Darn it!  So close to consummation, but...ah, well.  Miller probably isn't positive whether my carriers are moving forward are retreating.  He has a bunch of aircraft at Milne Bay.  My Oz bombers will hit the base tomorrow, but my carriers will head south along the Oz coast and then make themselves scarce.  Now that he knows where they are I want to move them far away (possibly Wellington or Tahiti) and await arrival of three CVs and three CVLs in the next 40 days.
 
Allied Carriers:  It'll take time to get new carriers into theater, but in 60 days the Allies will have Bunker Hill, Constellation, Constitution, Essex, Saratoga, Wasp and Victorious.  Joining them will be three CVLs and at least 13 CVEs (assuming I can get the ones that ran out of fuel and incurred high SYS damage up and running quickly.
 
Burma:  Four or five base forces are slated for Prome - one has arrived.  Once I can base 100 or 150 aircraft there I'll move in fighters and give Rangoon a go.  Fighters will be based at Prome, American bombers (B-24s and B-25s) at Akyab, and RAF bombers (Wellingtons and B-24s) at Cox's Bazaar.  With fighters that close to Rangoon the war of attrition should favor the Allies.
 
China:  Miller's trying to flank Liuchow, but I don't think he can do so while the Allies hold Kweilin.
 
 

[Q-Ball]

Constitution? Isn't that name taken?

My 4 CVs are Constellation, Congress, Alliance (rev war frigate), and Hamilton (if Randolph and Franklin get one, why not Hamilton?)

[Canoerebel]

I like having a Constitution in the Pacific!

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

Constitution? Isn't that name taken?

My 4 CVs are Constellation, Congress, Alliance (rev war frigate), and Hamilton (if Randolph and Franklin get one, why not Hamilton?)

Congress? Really? How is the engineering on it? Frequent breaks and breakdowns? What about movement? I would expect that Congress would move backwards two hexes for every hex it moves forwards...[;)]

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: LoBaron

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: witpqs




The bold part might be the key - when you have drawn all the pilots at the stated (I think you said 35) experience level, then you get the ones that are still in training and even lower than that. Go to the intel screen, replacement pilots, and look at the progression of basic training (not on-map training) versus experience.

Ah, but the IJ (or allied) player will get more pilots of the 35 experience level by pumping up his TRACOM commitment. I don't know what the formula is (The Elf specifically maintained secrecy re: the formula), but clusters of 10 TRACOM instructors provide additional pilots at 35 exp. so that one doesn't have to get the 20-25 exp. ultra-sucky pilots.

I've got about 20 TRACOM fighter pilots in there now and it helps, but I really can't say how much...

I think the real issue here is that the Allied players don´t find the triggers yet that force a war of attrition.
1/10 in pilot replacements entering from basic training is a factor that can tilt the balance after 43 and let it increase in the years after.

20 TRACOM aces don´t change anything there. If used properly the gap gets wider and wider.

If the Allied player can
- open a multi front war in range of Japanese ressources
- so force the Japanese player into a war of attrition because he has to defend with what he has
- balance the airframes from the beginning to get the maximum numbers of airframes into combat
- keep the pressure because he can cope with losses

then the effect should be brutal with 1/10 pilot replacement rate, no mater how big the difference in exp is when they leave basic training.

What the Japanese player can do to counter this:
- don´t fight a war of attrition
- fight only when the numbers are available to assure favourable loss rates
- put the pight on his own turf to minimize pilot losses
- build up a pool of ressources that he can afford to give up seemingly valuable areas

Historically the attrition began in ´43 in NG and Burma, in game this could be the same area if the Japanese player plans on
longer terms than ´44. To start fighting when the Allies push to DEI could be too late.
I think Canorebel is VERY close to the point where the fight starts to tilt in the attrition direction. If the push to DEI is a success, which I´m
already nearly sure, then Miller is in big trouble, maybe even faster than historical. No CV´s needed for occasional island hopping there.
And as soon as the bases are ready for 4eng to advance deep into the area its close to end-game.

I think we all get misleaded atm because the Allied players still are ready to accept much higher losses than they historically did and
the Japanese tries to minimize the losses because he knows whats coming at him. But I would still bet that the above points lead
to a Japanese breakdown even faster than in WWII if its done right, including the need to either send untrained pilots into
combat or accepting high ground losses due to bombing raids.

Canorebel, when you get deeper into the DEI´s theres not much space Miller can pull back to anymore.

I think if-and only if-the Allies keep a steady and constant pressure against the IJ pilot pools will this hold. Fits and starts or occasional big battles followed by breaks in the action will allow the IJ to revamp their pools.

I'm not sure of the effects of TRACOM re: pulling in more basic pilots. Are you? No, it's unlikely to 'even things out' with 10-20 TRACOM pilots, but I don't know the formula for how much it helps.

The 1:10 replacement pilot ratio is a red herring. The allies don't have enough PLANES for all those 35 EXP pilots that they're graduating, so adding more 35 EXP pilots into the pools is a pointless fiction if they have no planes to fight / die in. The Allies mid-war are in the same pickle that they are early war. Lots of pilots, insufficient airframes for a prolonged assault. While IRL (and in AE), the Japanese had sufficient airframes and insufficient numbers of well-trained pilots, the AE model is turning that on its head by allowing the IJ to maintain quality cadres longer than historically appropriate.

I doubt Miller is close to breaking re: pilot quality. He can train up large numbers quickly. Sure, losing a passel of DB pilots at Paramushiro sucks, but with care to detail he should be able to replace these pilots and their airframes in 3 months or less. Unless there's a major squeeze where he has to shove poorly trained pilots into the breach, he can revamp.

The goal for the Allies, IMO, is to maintain a steady thrust once a thrust is made. Moderate to heavy unrelenting pressure is the way to break the IJ pilot quality.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

6/18/43 to 6/21/43
 
SWPac:  Fizzle, fizzle!  Darn it!  So close to consummation, but...ah, well.  Miller probably isn't positive whether my carriers are moving forward are retreating.  He has a bunch of aircraft at Milne Bay.  My Oz bombers will hit the base tomorrow, but my carriers will head south along the Oz coast and then make themselves scarce.  Now that he knows where they are I want to move them far away (possibly Wellington or Tahiti) and await arrival of three CVs and three CVLs in the next 40 days.

Allied Carriers:  It'll take time to get new carriers into theater, but in 60 days the Allies will have Bunker Hill, Constellation, Constitution, Essex, Saratoga, Wasp and Victorious.  Joining them will be three CVLs and at least 13 CVEs (assuming I can get the ones that ran out of fuel and incurred high SYS damage up and running quickly.

Burma:  Four or five base forces are slated for Prome - one has arrived.  Once I can base 100 or 150 aircraft there I'll move in fighters and give Rangoon a go.  Fighters will be based at Prome, American bombers (B-24s and B-25s) at Akyab, and RAF bombers (Wellingtons and B-24s) at Cox's Bazaar.  With fighters that close to Rangoon the war of attrition should favor the Allies.

China:  Miller's trying to flank Liuchow, but I don't think he can do so while the Allies hold Kweilin.

How's repair coming on the NoDak and other fast BBs? Will they be online in time to escort some of your new CVs?

[Canoerebel]

My BBs are in much better shape than a month ago.  Here's the run-down:
 
1)  Colombo:  Ramilles and BC Repulse
2)  Darwin:  Mississippi and Royal Sovereign
3)  Escorting Allied carriers:  South Dakota, Massachusetts, California
4)  SoPac:  Indiana and Maryland (the latter just finished Pearl Harbor repairs)
5)  West Coast ready to go:  Washington
6)  West Coast ready in 50 days or less:  Colorado, North Carolina, Prince of Wales
 
 

[Canoerebel]

As for pilots a few points:

1)  For the entire game Miller has maintained a vigorous and unopposed bombing pilot-training program in China.  (No, the Allies can't offer opposition in China.  I've gone into this in depth before; suffice to say lack of supplies, lack of aircraft, and short legs essentially prevents the Allies from employing fighters in China until mid-43).

2) I haven't seen a Japanese aircraft in Burma in several months.  Once the Allies get Prome's airfield fully functioning the air battle of Rangoon will commence.

3)  There has been noticeably less Japanese air activity in the DEI in recent weeks.  This makes me wonder if Miller has decided to conserve this aircraft and/or pilots to reduce Ops losses (a few months ago during the early stages of the Paramushiro battle he had 60 Ops losses in one day).

The Allies still cannot take the war to the Japanese at any distance - any fighters flying sweeps or escort for bombers for any distance get chewed up.

However, some of the American fighter squadrons are reaching the high 60s in experience now.  Too, the Allies are continuing to develop the big network of interlocking bases on the islands west of Darwin - Babar is 4, Saumlaki 5, Kai-eilenden 1, Taberfane 2, Aru Island 3, and Kaimana 1.  All of these are going to level seven or eight.

This is close to the point where the Allies can base so many fighters and bombers "forward" that the Japanese will have to avoid getting to close to the "killing zone."  At that point - maybe just a few weeks away - the Allies can begin planning to move forward to the next bases, which are just two or three or four hexes distant from that line of island bases.

[LoBaron]

Canorebel do you monitor total flights/day of the Japanese side?
Admittedly this is something you should not be able to IRL but its there. Wonder if you notice a decrese in missions flown...

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I like having a Constitution in the Pacific!

I used RANGER. The other one will never know.

[Canoerebel]

Okay, I hereby claim the right to exclusive use of the following two carrier names:  Lively Lady and Lydia Bailey.
 
Is there anybody out there that knows the origins of those names?

[Zacktar]

I do now, but I had to use the Google. [:D]

I used some post-war USN CVs for my replacements -- Kitty Hawk, Constellation and America. The other will be named later, once I've won a victory that needs to be commemorated.

[khyberbill]

Constellation

Isnt the Constellation in the Inner Harbor in Baltimore? Nice sailing ship!

[jackyo123]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: jackyo123

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy



Correct me if I'm wrong, but I understand that the WiTP incremental improvement of 'basic' pilots fresh out of training school is gone. All pilots from the USAA or USN or Commonwealth come in at the same pathetic levels (it's 35, isn't it?) throughout the war. In WiTP, entry-level pilots for the USN, for example would be something like 60-65 in 1945. This higher caliber of replacement pilots was (and still is) very important for the allies.

I am quite certain that, when digging around in the scenario editor for one of the stock scenarios (maybe #1?) that the Japanese pilots begin to drop dramatically in starting experience in 1943 - goes something like

1941 - 35
1942 - 35
1943 - 35
1944 - 35
1945 - 35

Where's the dramatic drop in starting experience in 1943?

Agree with the allied starting experience. Way too low by comparison. I also agree that starting stats for IJNAF and IJAAF should erode in 1944 and 1945 to below 35 by comparison.

Sorry - meant that there was a difference between the ratios between the japanese and the allies - by 45 its 50 to 35 in the allies favor.

But - as I said - I dont think this is enough - esp as training to 70 max basically means that both rear units of both sidez can generally train up in 6 months to max. Supply hits on training should be higher, so the Jap player cannot afford to train up to 50/60/70 in 1944/45

[khyberbill]

Lively Lady and Lydia Bailey

Books by Kenneth Roberts. I preferred Arundel and Northwest Passage.

[Canoerebel]

Kenneth Roberts has been my favorite author since I first came across his books in high school.  His writing is smooth and richly detailed.  Some of his books are the finest literature I have read; some of them get so detailed that they bog down and become tedious.  Here's my ranking:
 
1.  Arundel - superb
2.  Rabble in Arms - excellent
3.  Oliver Wiswell - excellent though a bit long at points
4.  The Lively Lady - very good
5.  Northwest Passage - Part I is superb, Part II is tedious
6.  Lydia Bailey - rich in detail but too long
7.  Captain Caution - I haven't read this in decades, but my memory is that it's mediocre
8.  Boone Island - short and okay - this book would fit in well with the works of Melville and Cooper and Conrad and Hawthorne.

[khyberbill]

I would agree Arundel is the best. I havent read his books since 1960 will have to run down to the library and see if they have Arundel and read it again. I am thinking of naming one of the CVII's John Stobart. I will be getting the first one soon and have to bust a move on this.

[Chickenboy]

This is all very interesting, but I came here for the war.  War, darnit!  WAR WAR WAR!!![;)]
 
PS.  Canoerebel:  what's up with the war?

[Canoerebel]

6/22/43 to 7/6/43
 
I can't believe I haven't posted since the 6/21 and 6/22 turns.  Things have been fairly quiet as I await carrier reinforcements and wait for the right "conditions" to move forward in the DEI...but two weeks of game time? Wow!

NoPac:  Adak is my sub-support base.  Subs are patrolling around Sikhalin Island, Sapporo, and the northern Sea of Japan.  They're doing enough damage to get Miller's attention.  The troops at Attu Island are rebuilding and prepping for Marcus Island - they've already reached 40%, but it will be a LONG time before I head that way.  The units include an Army division and regiment and three Marine regiments.

CenPac:  The "extra" troops at Pearl are prepping for Wake Island.  It will be a LONG time before I ead that way, too.  Those five high-SYS damage CVEs that ran out of fuel are all parked and repairing at Pearl.  They'll be ready for action in about three weeks.

SoPac:  Tabiteau should reach level two airfield in a few days.  Miller has beefed up Tarawa's air garrison substantially.  I have a massive force prepped for Tarawa, but I don't plan on moving that way until I have the KB occupied in the DEI.  Even with Allied carrier replacements pouring in, now, I still don't want to risk a straight up carrier battle.  Most of the Tarawa troops are at Pago Pago, but a Marine regiment is at Palmyra and an Army division is about to leave San Siego for Pago Pago.  The bulk of the Allied carriers are at Wellington.

SWPac:  At the moment, the forward line of air bases are substantial enough to dissuade Miller from venturing too closely - I think.  Babar is a 5, Saumlaki 5, Kai-elenden 2, Taberfane 2, Aru Island 4, and Kaimana 2.  I'm transporting additional base forces to each to make sure they can handle the full compliment of aircraft.  As soon as Kaimana on New Guinea's SW coastline reaches level three, and Saumlaki level 6, I think the Allies will orchestrate a massive and fake invasion of Lautem to see response that elicits - I think it will be massive.  I'll try to set up my aircraft to create a CAP trap to deliver a defeat to Japanese air power.  At the same time, a real invasion fleet will move on Babo, just north of Kaimana, taking a circuitous and hopefully clandestine route.  I remain hesitant about committing the Allied carriers to the restricted waters of the eastern DEI - something I'm still puzzling over.

Burma:  The base forces needed to make Prome fully operational are making slow progress.  I expect the air war around Rangoon to commence in about ten days. 

China:  It looks like the Japanese will be able to take Liuchow, which may force the Chinese to withdraw from Kweilin.  My MLR is in trouble.  But decent Allied fighters have begun to make their presence known.  The Chinese may then fall back to the cities immediately east and southeast of Chungking.  Okay, so be it.  I sitll have plans for China far down the road in a "Remember the Maine!" kind of way.

Strategic Situation:  Despite the various setbacks and problems encountered in the game, the Allies remain in decent shape - due primarily to the rapidly strengthening position in the eastern DEI.  A flood of troops remains damned up on the eastern periphery at Darwin, but soon I expect to open the floodgates.  The Allied advance should be fairly steady to the west through the northern Moluccas and Celebes, and to the east along the northern New Guinea coastline.  Separate armies at Darwin are already prepped for Sorong, Boela, Ternate, Morotai, Samarinda, Balikpan, and Lautem (though the latter is something I'll move on only when it's been isolated and rendered relatively impotent).

AE as a Whole:  This has been a very exciting and tough fought match, though it has also been vexing (due to some bugs and other problems) and tedious (due to micromanagement issues).  It's hard to see the forest for the trees at this point - once I finish the game and can look back with more perspective, my opinions may better coalesce.  I tip my cap to the designers who devoted countless hours and effort to create something this massive and complex and beautiful and functional - and something that promises to get even better with time and mods and tweaks.

I don't know how to say what follows without sounding ungrateful and inappropriately negative, but I want to give my honest opinion.  For me, the game has moved too far towards micromanagement.  I enjoy the grand strategy aspects of the game - the ability to come up with complex plans over a vast map and to see those plans put into effect.  But the game involves so much micromanagement (sheesh at pilot training and search arcs) and takes so long to play that I'm afraid it's just too much.

I may be better suited for a game that is primarily grand strategy with less of a tactical and operational aspect.  Over the past two days I've gone back to looking at Empire of the Rising Sun, an old Avalon Hill board game that could be paired with Advanced Third Reich to provide a game of "global war."  I used to play these online - back around 2001 - and have been searching the web the past few days to see if the old group is still active.  I've found a semblance of the group at Warplanner.com.  I intend to look into this a bit more.

That's not to say I've given up on AE.  Far from it.  I think, though, that I'd like something to compare it with to see if I'm better suited to something else.  Perhaps I'll find out that there's nothing else out there that comes close. 

In the meantime, I'll continue enjoying my match with Miller.