A Lemon rises in the East: SqzMyLemon (J) vs. JocMeister (A)

[SqzMyLemon]

I had moved KB to within striking range of Noumea in case Jocke turned around and sent in his amphibious TF's, Unfortunately the ships failed to replenish during a previous move and arrived low on fuel, but undetected. If I chose to refuel I would have been able to only move one hex and most likely would have been spotted and out of range of striking an invasion TF inbound for Noumea. I decided to not refuel and move eight hexes to a location S.W. of Noumea so I could be in position. Of course, my TF's only move three hexes and appear to not have refueled either. I love not knowing wtf this game engine is going to do at any given time. Regardless, here is my question.

My CVL TF was the only one that was spotted and gave the call "we've spotted enemy carriers" and shows a detection level of 5/5. All my other TF's are in the same hex, but show no detection. Does this mean that ONLY the CVL's have been spotted, or will Jocke get a listing of the other TF's? I ask because if he only sees the CVL's it may be worth a shot to move KB out of range and remain undetected. If Jocke only see CVL's he may risk a battle perhaps.

[witpqs]

Might mean only they were spotted. But there is also FOW. Sometimes a TF is spotted but does not know it was spotted. [8D]

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Might mean only they were spotted. But there is also FOW. Sometimes a TF is spotted but does not know it was spotted. [8D]

As always, a cornucopia of information witpqs, thanks. [8D]

I'm going to base my next move on the fact everything was spotted and most likely refuel from my AO's so I don't run into problems. KB's cover is blown anyway and what had the potential to be a brilliant move fizzled. I asked Jocke if he was a pupil of Q-Ball's misdirection and feinted Noumea. His response was maybe he just forgot to load something and will come back, if that's true...Argh! I only have a JNAF AF unit on the base and he could have landed the Boy Scouts to take it. My bad luck continues whenever KB is involved and I really thought I had him this time.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

ORIGINAL: obvert

Your zeros from Luganville were LR CAP over Noumea? Or do you mean you based them near to Nuomea and LR CAPed?

You guys are using the official patch that still allows the Allies pre-turn intelligence about whether planes are based at a field. I hated this and it was the major reason I wanted to upgrade. Back then I think I could have been so much more successful in jumping bombing runs but that 'feature' always let the cat out of the bag.

The Zero's have been based at Luganville and were providing LRCAP over Noumea. I agree, the free intel on Japanese aircraft deployments has always been a beef with me too. I'm glad to hear the beta has changed this feature.

At 10 hexes the LR CAP will do very little there. It'll be a few planes and they will likely take a lot of ops losses, too. Maybe it's th sonly base within range but I was just curious as I've had bad results doing anything with LR CAP at that distance.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

ORIGINAL: obvert

Your zeros from Luganville were LR CAP over Noumea? Or do you mean you based them near to Nuomea and LR CAPed?

You guys are using the official patch that still allows the Allies pre-turn intelligence about whether planes are based at a field. I hated this and it was the major reason I wanted to upgrade. Back then I think I could have been so much more successful in jumping bombing runs but that 'feature' always let the cat out of the bag.

The Zero's have been based at Luganville and were providing LRCAP over Noumea. I agree, the free intel on Japanese aircraft deployments has always been a beef with me too. I'm glad to hear the beta has changed this feature.

At 10 hexes the LR CAP will do very little there. It'll be a few planes and they will likely take a lot of ops losses, too. Maybe it's th sonly base within range but I was just curious as I've had bad results doing anything with LR CAP at that distance.

The intent at the time was to provide as many fighters to support operations around Noumea. If Jocke had moved in as anticipated then KB was in position to strike unloading transports or the enemies' supporting fleet. Any Zero's that would have been over Noumea would have been gravy.

Like I implied, Jocke's extremely lucky he pulled back for whatever reason, I was in position with 8 CV 's and 3 CVL's to hit him the day of the landings if he'd moved in.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon



The Zero's have been based at Luganville and were providing LRCAP over Noumea. I agree, the free intel on Japanese aircraft deployments has always been a beef with me too. I'm glad to hear the beta has changed this feature.

At 10 hexes the LR CAP will do very little there. It'll be a few planes and they will likely take a lot of ops losses, too. Maybe it's th sonly base within range but I was just curious as I've had bad results doing anything with LR CAP at that distance.

The intent at the time was to provide as many fighters to support operations around Noumea. If Jocke had moved in as anticipated then KB was in position to strike unloading transports or the enemies' supporting fleet. Any Zero's that would have been over Noumea would have been gravy.

Like I implied, Jocke's extremely lucky he pulled back for whatever reason, I was in position with 8 CV 's and 3 CVL's to hit him the day of the landings if he'd moved in.

Lucky, or did he know?

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Lucky, or did he know?

I don't believe he did. Most of what I'm describing here is after the fact, the turn after Jocke withdrew. It looks like the second screenshot I posted is a casualty of the server crash. I took a screenshot showing the position of Jocke's amphibious TF's when they were 8 hexes S.E. of Noumea. At that time, KB was within a full speed run at Noumea away (18 hexes to Noumea, but only 13 hexes to my strike position). My full speed move was successful and moved KB 13 hexes and put it in position to hit Noumea and a hex or two beyond. Unfortunately, that's the same turn Jocke withdrew. I do not believe KB was picked up by search prior to the full speed move. I have to take him at his word, he forgot something and went back to reload. So I believe he was lucky. If he spotted me prior to the full speed move I didn't receive any indication of that.

As witpqs mentions, perhaps FOW came into play and I was spotted but didn't know. Even then, if he spotted me 18 hexes away from Noumea prior to my full speed move, he got lucky. [8D]

I'll ask him in a day or two if he did indeed spot KB the day before he would have landed or if he honestly forgot to load something. Right now I've decided to leave KB hanging around and may bring reinforcements in. I might as well throw off his timetable.

[Lokasenna]

Ah. It's possible he caught a sniff on Sig Int. The other possibilities are, as you say, that it was a feint (and a very elaborate one at that), or he forgot to load something.

Or maybe it's just a really, really big convoy and he got really careless/reckless with his routing.

[SqzMyLemon]

Wow, it's been quite some time since I last updated. There hasn't been much to report, but the Allies have made a couple of moves recently.

We've reached Oct. 14 and Baker Island was captured on the 13th while Allied forces landed at Noumea on the 14th. My timing with KB has been off and I missed any opportunity to interdict either landing. I had a moment where I thought if I double backed with KB towards Noumea I might have caught an inbound invasion force. It turns out I should have gone with my instincts. Instead I was caught out of position to interdict the landings at Noumea so decided to try a full speed run against Baker to try and catch follow up forces there. The Allies landed a Baker in one turn and promptly withdrew so KB only encountered an AV which was attacked but not sunk. [8|]

Fuel then became critically short and KB has now been delayed three days trying to refuel due to various issues with AI movement of my forces. I simply won't go there this time, but it's been frustrating.

China is going well despite some delays. Japanese forces are in position to strike into the Central Plains now after forcing a river crossing from Kweiyang to the northwest. There is serious potential to wreak havoc.

Strategic thoughts:

I'm not contesting New Caledonia. I only have two JNAF AF units on the island and less than 1000 supply so it's no great loss. I'm sticking to my plan of using the threat of KB's interdiction to slow any advance in this area rather than fight for ground I can never hold. The problem with using KB in this role is fuel and the lack thereof.

I'm concentrating on defending areas other then the Solomons, Gilberts and Marshalls.

Moving forward:

At what point do I determine what is worth defending? I've been following obverts AAR vs. Jocke and I have to say I'm quite worried. I don't believe Jocke will make as many mistakes as he did early and has a plan to strike deep into the Empire in mid to late 43.

Allied forces are massing at Cox's Bazar, there's already a sizable force of 31 units and 80k+ of troops. I think Burma is going to be my downfall. If I overload the front the Allies will most likely pull an amphibious landing along the Malayan coast. Don't defend the front strong enough and the Allies will simply mass and drive forward. I feel like I'm damned if I do, damned if I don't. With Scenario 1 Japan is critically short of combat LCU's. I just don't have enough to cover the perimeter and still block a major push in Burma.

Can I get away with simply a skeleton force in the Solomons, Gilberts and Marshalls while I build up my true defence deeper into my lines with shorter fuel and supply LOC's? So far Allied naval losses are negligible and unless I bring them to battle I may be facing a serious problem by the end of the year. It seems to me Jocke will use the CV's en mass for every major operation moving forward. It's unlikely I'll be able to count on winning a 1:1 battle with the new FLAK changes and wonder if that is his plan. Dare me to engage his CV's and risk losing KB against what is essentially an enhanced Allied capacity to defend itself against air attack.

Unfortunately, I think Jocke's improving skills against obvert and what is apparently a complete disregard for Japanese capabilities under DaBabes (which I think are more limiting than many understand) is going to lead to a very aggressive Allied opponent who knows he doesn't face nearly the same difficulties as in his other PBEM and will simply dare me to try and stop him. Yes, I've most likely already lost the psychological battle complements of seeing how much worse my units now perform under DaBabes.

As you can tell I'm not overly optimistic this time around. I just lack any faith in my forces capabilities. It certainly wasn't improved watching a lone AV avoid destruction at the hands of elements of KB followed by a missed submarine torpedo attack. It's a long game and a lot can happen, but I just can't shake the feeling of futility and it's only Oct. 42.

I'll try and post some screens soon, but there's just no desire to spend much time on the AAR these days.

[obvert]

You're right I fear. He will come fast from all sides in your game. That could still work to your advantage though. If you manage to pick the destination and hit him once, the psychological advantage will go right back to you. Being buoyed by late war Allied successes might not be such a good thing for playing the middle game with it's much more even balances.

Have you seen the new 3-D modeled planes at 1/700 and other stuff getting made with 3D modeling machines? Pretty interesting.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: obvert

You're right I fear. He will come fast from all sides in your game. That could still work to your advantage though. If you manage to pick the destination and hit him once, the psychological advantage will go right back to you. Being buoyed by late war Allied successes might not be such a good thing for playing the middle game with it's much more even balances.

+1
Bait the trap and then slam the door. As the IJ, if he gets frisky too soon, this is what you absolutely have to want. A showdown anytime before 3/43 is definitely in your favor. Keep your Mavis/Glen's busy ... recon is your friend, you need intel ... GOOD LUCK!

[SqzMyLemon]

So far intelligence has been sparse. Most times he's on me before I can react yet I'm being spotted constantly by PBY. KB was recently spotted again at a range of 16 hexes so he's getting good luck with his air search.

I'm definitely getting an idea of his modus operandi. Perhaps my lack of a solid forward defence will encourage him to make a move too far forward and indeed give me a chance to whack him. Fuel is killing me though. I'm concentrating on getting it to the Home Islands, but I'm going to have to divert a few TF's in order to provide me the fuel reserves needed to support combat operations.

I'm conserving PP's to buy out full divisions from China for Pacific duty. I can buy out a 336 AV Division now or wait another week to get a 400 AV+ division. I have to be very careful I don't make it too easy for an Allied foothold in the perimeter prior to ensuring the MLR is set up. I'm in trouble if that happens.

[SqzMyLemon]

We're also upgrading to the current beta this turn. I have not been following the changes whatsoever so going into this blind. Kind of like how I'm playing the game right now.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

We're also upgrading to the current beta this turn. I have not been following the changes whatsoever so going into this blind. Kind of like how I'm playing the game right now.

Some good things for you, and better to do it early rather than later.

Coordination of all LBA, especially striking naval targets, will be less. Coordination of CV planes is not too much effected, but is slightly less for both, so maybe less bloody battles.

He won't have pre-turn intel on your air group placement anymore, which is huge.

Coastal routing can be good around South China Sea for transports.

The biggest thing is to make sure your escape key is working well, because you'll be dying to get out of the replay for endless 4E strikes coming in 12-15 packages soon! [:D]

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Have you seen the new 3-D modeled planes at 1/700 and other stuff getting made with 3D modeling machines? Pretty interesting.

I don't think I have. I think most of what I've seen has still been the traditional injection or slide molded ones. One thing that I wish they'd stop doing is using clear plastic. It sure is a lot tougher to work with and cracking because the parts are so brittle is a real issue. I can see doing the canopy in clear, but the rest I wish was just normal plastic.

[SqzMyLemon]

I notice Jocke is commenting in other AAR's about China and my use of the "entire Japanese bomber force" for operations in the theatre causing upwards of 3k casualties a day. For posterity, I'm going to post the actual number of bombers I'm using when I fire up the game after updating to the latest beta. Off the top of my head I think I'm using around 10-12 Sentai's which translates to around 300 bombers in total. I routinely cause less than 1k losses per day and would put the number closer to 250-750/day.

It's just interesting a person's perspective and I take no umbrage from Jocke not liking it one bit. I certainly am not using the entire Japanese bomber force in China though, it just feels like it to him. Plus, I'm under no illusion what it's going to feel like getting hammered by hundreds of 4E's over the next 2-3 yrs.

As suspected, and my last PBEM opponent did the same, Jocke has mentioned simply packing up and running for the mountains towards Burma. I will do my best to prevent this, but that was always the plan once the Chinese Central Plains were vulnerable. I need to prevent the chance of supply getting to the Chinese from Burma. I just know what it's like to try and wipe out units in mountainous terrain even when they have no supply.

I do want to comment that Jocke often simply abandoned major bases like Changsha, Sian and other supply producing bases or left inadequate garrisons to put up an effective resistance. An aggressive offensive posture by the Chinese at game start didn't help in conserving his supply either. I know for a fact that had I been forced to siege these major bases I would have suffered huge casualties and I would not have been able to advance as far as I have for as little cost.

Really though, China is at best a pyrrhic victory for Japan. It's not going to change the outcome of the game one iota as AAR after AAR shows. A victory in China does not win the war for Japan.

Just some general comments and in no way is this meant to be critical of Jocke or his play. He's quite capable where it matters and China isn't crucial for the Allies anyway. Plus, it's not my fault China was given such low supply production as to make it untenable in most cases.

[obvert]

Well, I will say it's the same from my game. The exaggeration and 'propaganda' get heavy at times.

In our game he consistently abandoned bases before they were taken. I was pretty happy about it.

[SqzMyLemon]

After installing the 1123r beta we've run into a glitch with a Dutch unit appearing at Batavia which is physically impossible under the circumstances. We're on hold until it is addressed in the tech forum.

With the delay I had time to go over the JAAF units assigned to the Chinese theatre and came up with these numbers. I am using a total of 12 JAAF Sentai's which total 345 aircraft when at full strength. Another 10 Sentai's are deployed throughout the Empire totalling 271 aircraft when at full strength. So about half my JAAF is committed in China as these totals don't include all the Sonia, Ann and Mary units which are training Sentai's. No JNAF units are deployed in China. In total I'd say 1/3 of all Japanese bombers units available are deployed in China. It's clear I'm not using my "entire airforce" in China, it just seems like it.

[PaxMondo]

You're a little lower than what I have used when I am going after the Chungking valley. I'm usually about 600 ac there. 500 bombers, 2 sentai of fighters that I alternate between Escort/LRCAP, and training/rest, 1 chutai of Recon.

So I'm using fewer bomber units for training, and a higher percentage in China until I have Chungking/Chengtu. Then I drop down to about 200 bombers until I go after Kunming when I have to ramp up my committments to 500 bombers again. Its the only way I can take those bases ... overwhelming disablements due to bombing.

And yes my bomber training suffers, but it is a cost I pay to take China out of the game. Remember though I am playing Andy AI and all of those bases have internal supply that I cannot bomb or seal out and there are CHI LCU's with +50 EXP +70 MOR at those bases (+800 AV Corps). They are very difficult to take and are always at least lvl6 forts (I think they start the game at lvl 6 or higher). I'm pretty sure Andy gave some of the leaders "genius" pills too. [;)] I see leadership bonuses all the time. Bet he set their stats at 95/95/95/95/95/95. [X(]

[obvert]

Well, who cares how much you use of your forces in one place anyway? Jocke has no problem using 350 4E and another 250 2E from the same base when he feels the need. Which is every day in two different theatres, usually! [:D]

If it's not HRed or gamey, there is no issue and do as you like. Add more bombers. Get it done quicker.