The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_SqzMyLemon_Canoerebel (A)

[mind_messing]

From what I've seen, any engineer units will do. Loka had a go at Wake in our game a year or two ago. Despite a pretty decent bombardment, the disruption was all focused on the AF unit at the base. The combat troops were in fairly good shape and were able to throw back the attack.

The multiple units thing is an additional insurance against bombardments in that it disperses the fire of bombarding ships over several units. One 120 AV IJA brigade might suffer quite heavily and be reduced to 60 AV. Two NavGuard units of 60 AV might end up being at something like 30 and 50 AV. Considering that, in most cases, an atoll will hold or not depending on the initial shock attack, I've tended towards the latter approach. Having the raw AV be more resistant to disruption so that it can be modified upwards by forts and terrain is better in my view.
I'm not sure how it would apply to 47mm guns, but I have seen artillery from 70mm and upwards try to duke it out with ships landing troops with hardly any success.

[Lokasenna]

Just land with a division and be done with it. [:'(]

In the referenced attack, I think I got some really terrible rolls. Not much actually died, but it took a while for the division to recover.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Just land with a division and be done with it. [:'(]

In the referenced attack, I think I got some really terrible rolls. Not much actually died, but it took a while for the division to recover.

I was thinking of that regiment you heartlessly sent to their deaths in late '42 or early '43

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Just land with a division and be done with it. [:'(]

In the referenced attack, I think I got some really terrible rolls. Not much actually died, but it took a while for the division to recover.

Earlier in this game Historiker sent in a regiment and bits which were essentially vaporized on the beaches. Not sure what prep they had. He definitely didn't prepare the base with enough days of bombardment and/or air strikes.

The last one he did land with not one but pieces of two divisions on day one! In terms of numbers, it was about a divisions worth actually on the beaches, but that overstacking (and possibly lack of supply landed) left the massive imbalance unable to take the base. This is after many turns of disrupting bombardments from sea and air. Another key is that the forts weren't lowered, and I know the base forces are incredibly unhelpful here. The point being only that more may not be better.
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Ground combat at Marcus Island (123,85)

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 14195 troops, 320 guns, 458 vehicles, Assault Value = 624

Defending force 4629 troops, 42 guns, 53 vehicles, Assault Value = 182

Allied adjusted assault: 70

Japanese adjusted defense: 181

Allied assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 6)

Combat modifiers
Defender: forts(+), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+), disruption(-)

Japanese ground losses:
681 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 59 disabled
Non Combat: 8 destroyed, 16 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 9 disabled
Guns lost 8 (2 destroyed, 6 disabled)
Vehicles lost 37 (17 destroyed, 20 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
3188 casualties reported
Squads: 101 destroyed, 61 disabled
Non Combat: 125 destroyed, 16 disabled
Engineers: 8 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 49 (39 destroyed, 10 disabled)
Vehicles lost 92 (80 destroyed, 12 disabled)


Assaulting units:
194th Tank Bn /6
1st USMC Amphb Tank Battalion
1st Cavalry (Spec) Cavalry Division
25th Infantry Div /6
143rd USA Base Force
146th USA Base Force

Defending units:
8th Armored Car Co
78th Naval Guard Unit
Sasebo 7th SNLF
2nd South Seas Gsn
Det. 3rd Special Base Force /1
34th Ind. Engineer Regiment

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[obvert]

Here is a big map showing the current limits of Japanese influence.

[Lokasenna]

It depends on what's in the more. Prep a division to 100, maybe grab a combat engineer unit also, and use only those in the attack. Don't land base forces until you're taking other units off. Pretty simple, really. The Allies can sustain a couple of days of overstacking. Just bring a lot of LSTs with supplies.

It might be useful to land an HQc also, to help ease the pain on disruption from overstacking.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Here is a big map showing the current limits of Japanese influence.

What do you use in PS to draw the border?

Also, are those subs or surface pickets in NORPAC?

[obvert]

Those are surface pickets in NorPac. Good spot! [:)]

The IO and couple in CentPac are I-boats with glens. I need to add another few and some off West OZ.

I use a path, then add a stroke using a spaced circular brush. I used to use a smaller dot but for some reason at 2 pt it was coming out square and I got impatient.

[ny59giants]

From an economic point of view, the Allies taking back the rest of northern Australia and pushing into the SRA would cause me the most concern in your position. How are your defenses there?

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

From an economic point of view, the Allies taking back the rest of northern Australia and pushing into the SRA would cause me the most concern in your position. How are your defenses there?

Yes, it would. I've been looking closely at the bases in range here, down to Geraldton, and it would either have to be just CV plus naval at this point if he came this way. I've got Emilys from Cocos scouting, and I'm switching out subs at teh moment, but more will be on patrol soon. I'm planning an action over here to make sure nothing is easy, but I'm mainly interested in slowing things down.

All bases are ready with forts and fields, but more LCU are needed. Three are a few division's worth on Java, Sumatra has several as well, and there are naval guard units spread along the first line in the Arafura and Timor Seas. I need LCUs added to second level defenses for the harder points in the Macassar-Kendari-Ambon axis.

Since the CVs are undoubtedly back at Pearl and most likely getting an upgrade, I'll be able to use newly arriving and bought out troops over the next months to fill in. I also need some of the to strengthen the North though, too. That is just as worrisome to me as the DEI.

[Drakanel]

Your opponent is still being quite passive for now.

I think this means he's reorganizing and/or moving supplies or oil for a big push somewhere [:D] It must be quite traumatic, to pick up a game this late. And considering that your previous opponent gave up... well he may have inherited an unprepared logistical situation or something like that.

An offensive in Australia seems like a given. All that movement at PH, perhaps something in the south/center pacific. An advance in Burma is almost 100% guaranteed. But if I were you, I'd expect a surprise somewhere. I don't know where.... but in his place I'd certainly try to surprise you!

Might I ask for a screenshot of the capital ships losses? On both sides! I know you lost half the KB, but I'd like to see an updated report if I can...

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Drakanel

Your opponent is still being quite passive for now.

I think this means he's reorganizing and/or moving supplies or oil for a big push somewhere [:D] It must be quite traumatic, to pick up a game this late. And considering that your previous opponent gave up... well he may have inherited an unprepared logistical situation or something like that.

Yes. We've exchanged a few emails about the state of the game and his philosophy about picking it up. I know from him that there is a lot to do to bring some organization and direction to the Allied side. Joseph seems comfortable reorganizing at his own pace, and I hope it takes some time pressure off of him. The Allies can do a lot in 44 if planned well, so that seems his primary goal right now.

An offensive in Australia seems like a given. All that movement at PH, perhaps something in the south/center pacific. An advance in Burma is almost 100% guaranteed. But if I were you, I'd expect a surprise somewhere. I don't know where.... but in his place I'd certainly try to surprise you!

Might I ask for a screenshot of the capital ships losses? On both sides! I know you lost half the KB, but I'd like to see an updated report if I can...

Yes and no. A lot of players have tried to move into the DEI and found it to be a web of interlocking Japanese positions that really slow down ops, and the main goal is always to get in range of the Home Islands to knock out industry with the B-29s. It's good to hit the oil and all in the DEI, but it's tough to sustain bases in that area safely enough to put the Beasts on them and be in range of all targets.

He will surprise me. It may be a landing in the North, in Java, in the Marianas. Wherever it is I hope I can react. I'm aiming to get pieces in place to allow a reactionary force of LCU reserves. That should begin to accumulate in early 44.

It's also hard for me to switch to a new opponent and read the game as I have with my previous one. I could see more of the signs of activity with him and I'll have to slowly get accustomed to Joseph's rhythm. It's added a lot of interest in the game for me.

I'll post ship losses soon. Gotta get some screenshots from home.

[obvert]

This is when things get interesting. The first Franks getting to the front lines. I'll upgrade as I can in Rangoon and might get one group active in So Pac at Rabaul.

My production is limited for now to 105 a month, and will be until the Frank Ki-84b comes online with 90 more per month. I've then got the Ki-84r with another 60. I won't expand these as I'm trying to be frugal, even though I know this is not enough for right now and into early 44. I will have the Ki-100 coming online in early 44 for defensive purposes as well as the service 2 Jack and George versions within a month.

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]Ship Losses[/font]

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Looking back at the ship losses I realize I made some poor decisions in mid-late-42 going after Allied CVs near the Andamans with surface ships. I did get a CV, a fast BB and two CA in the balance, but can't afford the losses of one small CV and two CVL plus two BC and five CA ([X(]) in exchange.

Hindsight is 20/20 and all that. Still, the game is fun and when it settled down, the losses on the Allied side have been creeping up as they have to put ships at risk to move forward, whereas so far, Japanese losses of major assets have been limited to the Furetaka and Kako in 43. There should be one more Allied slow BB on this list eventually, the Arizona, most likely sunk out near Wake with the other three here.

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]Ship Losses (cont.)[/font]

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Losses for cruisers favor the IJN a bit, but the CA losses are of course impossible to replace, whereas for the Allies there are a lot more of everything coming.

For DDs the Japanese have fared well so far.

IJN: 31
Allies: 37

ASW has taken it's toll of the Allied silent service, but the IJN is catching up slowly as better Allied training and equipment are used.

IJN: 23
Allies: 47

xAP/AP/APA losses are low for both sides.

IJN: 15
Allies 17

xAK/AK/AKA losses favor the IJN so far.

IJN: 97
Allies 153

[Drakanel]

I see, thanks for posting those screenshots.

You managed to sink some battleships at least. That should slow down his heavy support bombardments at least. But his carrier fleet stands very much intact... That is quite worryinng.

Cruiser and destroyers, well the allies still have a ton. Of course, since they are the allies [:)]

This will be fun



If I can ask, did you already think about how to use your remaining carrier fleet? Will you try to save it for as long as possible, as an harassment tool, or use it once you see a truly worthy objective, no matter what the risks?

I mean, since it's relatively depleted, I doubt you can try for a carrier engagement... unless you strike it lucky, the allies have a very heavy numeric advantage...

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Drakanel

I see, thanks for posting those screenshots.

You managed to sink some battleships at least. That should slow down his heavy support bombardments at least. But his carrier fleet stands very much intact... That is quite worryinng.

Cruiser and destroyers, well the allies still have a ton. Of course, since they are the allies [:)]

This will be fun



If I can ask, did you already think about how to use your remaining carrier fleet? Will you try to save it for as long as possible, as an harassment tool, or use it once you see a truly worthy objective, no matter what the risks?

I mean, since it's relatively depleted, I doubt you can try for a carrier engagement... unless you strike it lucky, the allies have a very heavy numeric advantage...

At this point using the KB depends on the circumstances, and yes, it's a powerful psychological weapon if not revealed. I could even consider splitting the CVs, showing some in one area, and then laying in wait for a move in another area not supported by a full Allied fleet.

In my previous long game the Allies eventually whittled down the KB, but it was still a successful striking tool from certain supported positions. Unless opportunities present themselves for a surprise move, I plan to make sure there is LBA around and the Allies are more out on a limb before sending the KB in for a scrap.

[mind_messing]

Japanese surface ships are pushed to the sidelines by the end of 1943, but you'll know this yourself. The cruiser shortage is probably the biggest limitation to the IJN (I've never really felt the DD pinch), and it's at the point that I'd swap a Yamato for a half dozen cruisers - anything that can fight off a murder of Fletchers...

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Japanese surface ships are pushed to the sidelines by the end of 1943, but you'll know this yourself. The cruiser shortage is probably the biggest limitation to the IJN (I've never really felt the DD pinch), and it's at the point that I'd swap a Yamato for a half dozen cruisers - anything that can fight off a murder of Fletchers...

I found BBs useful right to the end to bombard land positions and fields. Even CA don't do well against Fletchers, so I can only hope to avoid them! [:)]

[obvert]

This is an approximation of what the Allies have now and into the future for BBs. Can't get too optimistic here! There is always the ship queue to sober me up (or lead me to drink).

Looks like 7 old BB and 5 new BB for the USN on the map currently, plus an RN BB and BC Repulse. Arizona is a probable but not confirmed yet.