Forlorn Hopes: The Japanese Respond

[ny59giants]

As you have learned the hard way, this is a game of logistics. [:D]
He needs to feed those forces up there. If he is allowed to do that, he wins. 

[John 3rd]

Am I losing or not? I haven't toaled up the CONFIRMED sunk ships from Dan's invasion until now. Dan has lost a total of 295 ([X(][X(][X(]) ships in this operation. These are the ships that have been sunk from December 6-19, 1943:

Sunk American Warships (30)
CVE--Altamaha, Copahee, Prince William, Liscome Bay
BB--North Carolina, Mississippi, Oklahoma
CA--Chester, Astoria
CL--Juneau
DD--14
DE--4
SS--3

Damaged and Possibly Sunk
1 CV, 2 CVL, 5 CVE, 3 BB, etc...

Sunk Support Ships (265)
APD--1
MSW--8
LCI--10
LSD--3
LST--41
LCT--1
AK--165
AP--17
AO--13
AV--2
AR--2
AS--1
AD--1

Damaged Support Ships
Too numerous to even begin to count. I would conservatably guess about 150 or more.

I will post the Japanese Naval and Support losses with my next email but it doesn't even to compare to this...

So the question remains: AM I losing???

Here is the current map of Northern Japan:

[John 3rd]

Here is the screenshot of my CVs (6 CV, 5 CVL, 3 CVE) wreaking havoc on Dan's poor, defenseless shipping trying to get home...

[FeurerKrieg]

AK's are the key I think.

I haven't played as the Allies, but I've read some AARs and it seems those heavy bombers suck up A LOT of supplies. He will need to keep AK's running back and forth a lot, the less AK's he has the harder it will be for him to stay supplied. Plus, he'll either have to cover the convoys or cover his bases, he can't do both I imagine.

[castor troy]

Are you losing, or not? Simple answer: if your opponent will be able to keep two or three bases in this region that can be built up to level 4+ (which isn´t a problem at those bases) then you have lost IMO! Even though it seems to be a lot shipping lost, your opponent would have lost far more in total if he had to do a dozen major invasions to get closer to Japan.

A lot of AKs lost, but he has so many, he can afford to lose them. Would he have lost 15 CV/CVL it would be more severe as he couldn´t bring in supplies he will need in future but his CV fleet is more than intact (far more intact than yours with all his CV air replaced with proper pilots from the pool). He can bring 2.000.000 supplies in easily under the cover of a dozen CVs and this will be enough for two months of heavy fighting and bombing Japan´s industry to rubble. He can gather his AKs full of supply somewhere in Alaska and then bring them in in two weeks. So far, I can´t see a problem for Canourebel. And after the first couple of days I thought it would be a major disaster for him!

[John 3rd]

Castor--I agree with your summation.  This is the key to the fight right now.

IF I can keep him in Sakhalin and not supply for a few weeks then I have a chance.  I must counterland once I have recovered Hokkaido.  It will be a race against time.  I do know for a fact that he didn't land with that much in Sakhalin.  The bulk of his infantry (5 Inf Div) appears to be on Hakkaido.

I will not be able to stage another CV-to-CV Battle like before.  Unless I get two months to train up my fighter arm that will not be possible. 

Dan is keeping the American CVs at Shikuka.  He moves them out for a few hexes to hit Wakkanai periodically but that has been it.  I will keep my CVs hitting his support shipping until he decides to abandon Sakhalin with his CVs.  It is a VERY good thing that I had let a pair of convoys go into Marcus (25,000 Supply/40,000 Fuel) and Kiska (15,000 Supply/40,000 Fuel)!  In doing so I can replenish my CVs twice before returning to the Home Islands.

Unless I can take back Sakhalin, the war is over.  Luckily I have hurt him so badly, I have a short window of opportunity before he pounds me back into the Stone Age...

Lost Japanese Ships during Dec 6-19, 1943:

Warships
CV--Hiryu
CVL--Chiyoda
BB--Musashi and Nagato
CL--Tenryu and Kiso
DD--33  [X(][X(][X(] (I lost 17 in ONE battle when his BB TF intercepted my CVs--The DDs did a Philippine Sea-style attack)
SS--3

Support Ships
ML--4
PC--2
MSW--2
AK--5

That is the status of things.  I have taken horrific DD casualties during this.  A lot of my major fleet units are damaged.  Only things really operational are the CVs and about 30 lesser warships...

I do, however, have LOTS of planes and January 1, 1944 isn't far away.  What do I get THEN???  The Divine Wind Baby...

[Nemo121]

The Divine Wind Baby... 

 
LOL! That's such an Oddball ( a la Kelly's Heroes ) thing to say. Classic.
 
P.s. Oscar IIs at maximum altitude. Nothing his CAP can do about them and their range is as good as many of your light bombers.

[John 3rd]

Over the last several days, the Japanese have driven the American out of Hakodate and are now heading for Wakkanai. I will avoid Sapporo since Dan is moving all his units to Wakkanai in an attempt to take it. I hope to get there and THEN take Sapporo afterwards.

The Army in Hakodate is now massive: 9 Inf Div, 3 Eng Reg, 4 Art Reg, and LOTS of Aviation units.

I am limited to the number of AF near the battlefield in how much LBA I can throw at the Americans. The Americans--on the other hand--have planes on their CVs, Toyohara, and some at Shikuka. Shikuka is only at Sz-2. When I have occupied all of Hokkaido I will have room for nearly 1,500 planes to attack those two fields in Sakhalin.

I will TRY to invade Toyohara with my army if given the chance.

Here is the current situation:

[John 3rd]

Combat Report
December 20-26, 1943

The battle for Hokkaido dominates everything the Japanese High Command thinks about right now.  It is now easily feasible to predict the reconquest of this island by the Japanese within a period of 10-14 days.

This being said, the Japanese also realize that the Allies will undoubtably try moving elsehwere for some cheap victories throughout the Empire.  I will do a Regional Report once done with the battle for Hakkaido.

Hokkaido
This week long period sees the Japanese unload convoy after convoy at Hakodate.  A MASSIVE Japanese army (detailed in the last post) now is in motion to take the island back.  On the 24th, the last American units were driven out of Hakodate and the army is now moving NE towards Wakkanai.  I will avoid Sapporo unless Dan evacuates it.  The Americans are trying to take Wakkanai and I want to save it before it falls.  All the American units on this Home Island are badly bearen up so they don't have too much combat power.  The only exception to this statement is the 3rd Marine Division.

I have about 800 planes involved in attacking and/or CAP with this operation.  My bombers are in great shape, however, my Fighters are in pretty sad shape.  They are adequate for CAP but there are only 4-5 Daitai/Sentai usable for Sweeps/Escort.

My Lily's have been flying ASW Sweeps between Aomori and Hakodate and have had GREAT success against the American SS!  Over the last 7 days I have sunk 4 SS and damaged nearly 20 more!  If Dan keeps them operating in the area--and I am sure he will--those numbers shall only climb.

The only major Fleet loss for the Japanese in this week is the BB Mutsu which was disbanded in Wakkanai's Port.  Dan attacked it everyday of this week with Avengers and SBDs.  The BB finally sank on the 24th.

I have two light STF working the area.  One TF of 1 CL and 5 DD plus another of 2 CL and 4 DD have managed to do some work as Dan tries to evac troops from Sapporo.  On the 26th they surprised a group of LSTs (15 total) and managed to sink 5 and damage 5 more.

There are REAL problems in moving troops from Honshu to Hakkaido.  I posted the concern in the War Room for input.  How can I not be able to move troops between these islands?  Is that a Big B/Map problem or am I being stupid?

KB
The rampaging CV TF that have sunk ship after Allied ship are about done with the easy pickings.  I have ordered nearly all Japanese CV to Marcus for supplies, fuel, and orders.  This will be a massive force once it is concentrated.  The problem is my Fighters (again) terrible experience.  I am thinking of sending these CVs on a raid somewhere elsewhere to try to catch Dan flatfooted.  My eyes keep getting drawn to either Noumea (he has taken Norfolk Island and I bet will move on New Caledonia) or Sumatra (the British Fleet).

I simply cannot stand up to the massed American CV Fleet.  With this realization comes the knowledge that I CAN stand up to other forces and still be able to do well.

I'll take any thoughts here...

Central Pacific
My troops at Wake and Marcus can withstand much of whatever the Americans throw here.  I have plenty of supplies and good AS (700-800) at both locations.

South Pacific
I have evacuated the major forces out of the Society Islands and have pulled troops out of the Canton--Pago-Pago--Suva arena.  There are still solid garrisions in the Marshalls, Carolines, and Marianas.  NONE of those targets will be easy to take.

There are NO Japanese aircraft here...

Australia
I continue to hold Broken Hill and Adelaide.  I do not know why this is the case but it is true.  I have a total of ONE Inf Div holding this entire area.  There are about 80 Fighters and 60 Bombers flying out of Broken Hill.  Since Dan has done little here, I manage to pull 50,000 in resources every two weeks out of Perth as well as gain the HI from the area too...

DEI
Everything is solid here and I am dealing with few--if any--Allied SS.  Still running normal convoys carrying oil and resources to the Home Islands.

CBI
The war was lost in Burma/Indochina about a month ago time wise when Dan landed at Tavoy and I retreated from Moulmein.  Since taking those locations my esteemed opponent has refused to press me.  This is a typical issue with Dan.  He makes a bold stroke, grabs it, and then sits for way too long.  When he took Iwo Jima he could have had ANYTHING within 12 hexes yet nothing happened (thankfully).  The same can be said here when Tavoy fell.  He could have had Bangkok in a heartbeat and driven down the Malay Peninsula with little difficulty.  Luckily this did not happen.

I expect him to try to flank my lines again.  With this in mind, I am moving my damaged Inf Div and Brigades down to Singora, Georgetown, and Singapore.  They can rebuild down there and serve as my reserve.  The Japanese AF have redeployed some asset into the same area.  I now have about 150 decent fighters, 100 LB bombers, and 100 TB/DB ready for action. 

In a little surprise I had a small strike of 27 Fighters, 27 LB bombers, and 20 TB attack a convoy at Tavoy on the 25th.  These planes easily fought there way past 12 Spitfires and hit 8 AK that were carrying troops.  A small TF of 6 DD will hit this area on the 27th.

When more troops reach Georgetown, I will shuttle them over to Sumatra to help hold Sabang and those ports to the SE of there.  Right now I have at least a Brigade at each of those 3 locations.  Engineers and Combat Battalions are furiously digging in there.

China
Nothing happening but I am moving my worst experience planes here for training. 

This is most of everything happening and is my first true combat update in long time.  If anyone has any thoughts, comments, or suggested strategic thinking, I am wide open!

[John 3rd]

I forgot to detail ship sinkings during this week of turns:
 
Japanese Losses:
BB Mutsu
DD--1
SS--Ro-67
MSW--1
PC--1
AP--1
AK--4
 
Ten ships total is not bad for losses whatsoever.  I have--it seems--nearly 75% of the surface fleet repairing at various Japanese ports right now.
 
Allied Sinkings:
DD--1
SS--4
AK--9
LSD--1
LST--2
LCT--5
LCI--1
AGP--1
TK--1
AO--1
 
Thus ends the massive ship sinking spree from the Invasion of Hakkaido.  Another two dozens ships go down rasing total Allied sinkings to over 310 vessels since December 6, 1943.
 

[n01487477]

There are REAL problems in moving troops from Honshu to Hakkaido. I posted the concern in the War Room for input. How can I not be able to move troops between these islands? Is that a Big B/Map problem or am I being stupid?

John, Answering the War room post ... the show road key is "r" on your keyboard. I'm unsure about movement and AB or Brian would be better to answer this. But if your troops aren't moving or can't target another base then, there's your answer ...




This is from Lvl 6 RHS map, where you can see I can move troops ...

[edit][*] Why not just use barges? It is the same and they are fairly immune to air attacks.[/color]

[John 3rd]

OK.  Thanks for the thoughts.
 
Brian?  Andrew??
 
Do either of you guys know the answer to this question?
 

[John 3rd]

Since Dan has been gone, I have had a few days to think about things: 
 
1.  The war in Northern Japan is going to be decided by LBA.  I will be able to take back Hokkaido and rough up the remaining American forces that Dan has there.  The key is to do this pretty quickly before he takes the Allied CVs away.
 
I figure the only way he can bring in reinforcements and supply is to pull out his CVs and bring them to Midway.  There are a bunch of TF gathering at Midway and I know what their purpose is for.  The good thought here is that his CVs will have to be gone for at 12-14 days to go to Midway and then return at a speed of 4 hexes a day.
 
The moment his CVs have left I will open a massive aerial offensive against his two bases in Sakhalin.  While that is happening I will gather about 1,000 AP and try an assault landing at the Southern base there.  This landing will consist of no less then 8 Japanese Infantry Divisions.
 
Additionally, I will have a force of 3 SNLF and 3 Con Btn at Sendai that will be used to take back the Kuriles.
 
2.  The KB needs to train up it flyers--particularly Fighter pilots--and I want to hit Dan somewhere he doesn't expect.  He will figure my CVs are at Marcus and have to protect his convoys.  I want to feed that line-of-thought thinking.  The CV will very obviously gather there and then move.
 
The next crisis spot is Malaya right now.  It is obvious that Dan is going to try another seaborne landing.  I wonder what might happen if the ENTIRE remaining Jap CV force arrived and attacked his Fleet?  He only has 2 CV and a CVL plus some LBA fighters to rely upon.  I could easily field an attack force of 6-700 planes that might do some serious damage to his Indian Ocean Naval Forces and buy me time for issues elsewhere.
 
OR
 
I could send the KB to Noumea to meet an expected attack there.  This is more chancy in that I am not SURE he will do this and it is a LONG way from the Central Pacific.
 
 

[ny59giants]

He who controls the North Pacific will win the game. Period!

Everything else is just a side show (even though your situation in Malaya/Sumatra/Burma area is going to be a concern due to all that Oil over there that you cannot truly afford to lose). Can you afford to send your CVs over here?? If he can secure the Midway to Aleutian Islands leg for his convoys, he is free to use his CVs elsewhere.

FYI - I'm still alive and kicking. I should be ready for a short scenario by mid-week. Which one??

[John 3rd]

The simple reality is that I cannot stand against the American Fleet.  I know that Dan has had to bring in new pilots since I killed all his veterans but they will be superior to my beat-up fighter pilots.  I will not be able to stage another magnificent ambush of his CVs as done just a month previously.
 
Taking all this into account makes me think of hitting him somewhere where I CAN do some damage.  This would be Sumatra/Malaya.  The Royal Navy (with some LBA support) would be fairly easy prey for the KB at this point.  It would also carry the strength of surprise...
 
Readers:  Is Michael right here?  Can someone come up with a different option? I am game to try anything...
 

[VSWG]

Taking all this into account makes me think of hitting him somewhere where I CAN do some damage. This would be Sumatra/Malaya. The Royal Navy (with some LBA support) would be fairly easy prey for the KB at this point. It would also carry the strength of surprise...

True, but as soon as KB appears in the DEI or SoPac your opponent will know that he can run one reinforcement convoy after another into Sakhalin and the Kuriles, with only moderate CV cover. Then it'll be "game over" soon, no matter how many battles you win against the Royal Navy.

IMO the "fleet in being" approach has some merits in this situation. If you can't fight the US carriers, at least slow down his build-up on the North by forcing him to cover each and every convoy with all his carriers. Meanwhile, use the time to repair your ships and train your pilots - you'll need them sooner or later for the final showdown in the north.

Of course this point will be moot if you can retake Sakhalin, but for that invasion I'd like to have KB in the vicinity, too.

Just my 2c...

[FeurerKrieg]

I'm with VSWG. Keep your CV's at Marcus, because if there is ANY indication they have left Cent Pac, (and I think ship names show up on Allied SigInt now and then), you can bet a stream of cargo ships will head to Sakhalin and you will have a real hard time recapturing the place for sure.

If he has to escort convoys, it slows him down. Or, if he takes a risk and sends out unescorted convoys, you get some easy kills.

[John 3rd]

Dammit.  I HATE it when I ask for advice and actually get GOOD advice!  [;)]  The above points make a bunch of sense...
 
Plans:
1.  Keep the majority of Jap CVs at Marcus as a Fleet in being and threat to the Americans.  I might take a TF down to Noumea and see if I can bag anything.
2.  I'll move more LBA to Sumatra/Malaya and hope for the best.
3.  There will be a transfer of 4-500 Japanese fighters to China for training.  If I get 2-3 weeks of training in then they should be useful.
 
I just want to PUNCH Dan some where it makes some sort of difference...
 

[John 3rd]

Feinder posted this in another Thread and I liked it so much I decided to place it here so I remember wen it comes to House Rules for my AE Campaign:
 
1.  Bases can only have 50x AF size aircraft, excluing patrols-floatplanes-floatfighters and transfers (must be stood down).
2.  The kicker : The number of 4e squadrons are limited by the following table for current base size:
AF(4) : 1 squadron
AF(5) : 2 squadrons
AF(6) : 3 squadrons
AF(7) : 6 squadrons
AF(8) : 9 squadrons
AF(9) : No limit

A good example of the constraint doing it's job is at Tennet Creek.  It's built do AF(8), I have 9 squadrons there.  Yes, I can dominate Daly Waters (range 5), and occasionally Katherine (range 7).  But Darwin at Range 10 is problematic because I don't have any fighters to escort that far.  It didn't take me very many spectacularly unsuccessfull (and painful), raids on Darwin to take it off the target list.  We've had some clashes over Katherine, but frankly, given his build-up at Daly Waters (about 25 units), I need the full 9 squadrons over Daly Waters to sufficiently crunch the AF there (it's only size 2, but it takes about 4 days to clobber it up to about 90%+, and he can repair in about 6 days, so missions are farily constant).  Also, the Catch-22 for strikes out of Tennet Creek is that, it's the same supply pile that feeds my own army up at Daly Waters.  If I bomb DW with B-24s, I deprive supply to my front-line troops of supply, precluding attack potential.  If I -don't- bomb DW, my army can slowly build up supplies for the next attack, but then Bilbow's army is able to repair the AF, and then able to restart fortification construction.

We don't really have a limit on the number/type of squadrons that can be converted to 4e (even with PDUs).  Reason being, my constraint is more about number of AFs (and the number of sqdns able to be deployed to those AFs).  It doesn't do me any good to convert scores to 4e bombers, because I need to able to put them somewhere. 

It -does- mean that every piece of real-estate is at least marginaly important tho.  Being able to put a 4e bomber squdn on a AF(4) is ok, and the more the better.  But a single 4e squdn attack (esp un-coordinated between several small bases) is annoying for Japan, but not a major threat.

But those bases that can be built to size 6 and 7, those bases are gold targets (to capture). Being able to put up 48 to 96 4e bombers on a coordinated strike makes me giddy (but that's still far below the 200+ plane strikes you hear about in this thread).  Even from a AF(8) (very few of those on the map!), I can only send 144x 4es out.

[John 3rd]

I have had a number of people PM me regarding my Legal Nightmare so I am just going to touch on it here.  My wife and I took a Plea Bargain today in Court.  If I was single or didn't have kids my Attorney wanted to take it all the way, however, my sons (ages 4 and 2) completely change the dynamic.  We agreed to an 1st Degree Misdemeanor--no jail, no fines, and only probation.  My formal sentencing will be done September 25th.  This opens the door for me to find a new job/career, put this nightmare of 18 months behind us, and rebuild life.  It sucks but is the reality of things.
 
My Advice---NEVER go into High School teaching!
 
It is this massive change to life that leads me to leave most of my WitP playing until I know where things sit in life.  I have decided to quit Mandrake's campaign 'From Here to Eternity' and have new players assume the role of the Japanese.  This campaign with Dan will continue as long as I can still get a few turns in.
 
My plans are to get life in order and then jump back in when AE is released in September of 2021.  Figure that should give plenty of time...
 
Sorry for all the information but I had 7-8 inquiries and just decided to handle it here.
 
Thanks,
John