OT - The New Coronavirus

[Lobster]

ORIGINAL: rico21

Behind these numbers,
--------
Coronavirus: in Romania, the wrath of doctors "sent to death"

Resignations are increasing among healthcare workers to protest against the lack of resources. The country's medical density is the lowest in Europe.

It’s a small town on the border with Ukraine in northeast Romania: Suceava, some 100,000 people and 33 dead since the official confirmation of the presence of the coronavirus in the country in late February. In this peaceful commune, which has become the main center of infection for Covid-19 in Romania, 866 people have contracted the disease (out of 3,894 cases in total, and 148 dead to date). A quarter of them are doctors and nurses, who have resigned en masse. They accuse the local authorities of not having supplied them with masks and protective equipment.

"We were sent to death," said a doctor who hides his identity during this state of emergency and curfew, which were guaranteed by the police and the army. "No gloves, no masks, shortage of disinfectants and combinations, nothing, nada, that slab," he protests. How to treat the sick? We are doctors, not magicians. "

The anger of practitioners is mounting in Romania. The coronavirus epidemic puts an underfunded medical system in dire need of protective equipment, and more and more doctors prefer to resign. "It's easy to blame us," says Dr. Camelia Roiu, who practices at the Bucharest Burns Hospital. To ask us to fight the virus without ensuring any protection is criminal. "This opinion was not unanimous, however. "All medical executives have an obligation to save their patients," said anesthesiologist Radu Tincu, in the emergency room of Floreasca Hospital in Bucharest. It is not moral to abandon patients when they need us most. "
"Respect the Hippocratic Oath"

The state of emergency having been declared, the authorities no longer communicate the figures relating to these resignations, but the testimonies of the doctors reveal the extent of the phenomenon.

Newspaper "Le Monde".

This is a disaster in the making. Where is China and all of it's wonderful aid? Why don't they help Romania? The rest of the world is still in the first month or two of the worst and have no aid to send.

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

ORIGINAL: loki100

Do you really believe this has a mortality rate of 20%,ie 10/20 times the best estimates?

Best guesses you mean. I'm simply not going to work with "belief". I'll stick to the data.

As I've said before, the figures I'm posting are the only ones available to us that do not use data manipulation or speculation.

Regardless, note that the first three columns are just raw data. Their charts have a usefulness independent of any conflict over the death rate. For example, we can see clearly that there has been no "flattening of the curve" on the Total Cases chart.

or maybe you are comparing apples and pink hippos, and, inevitably, the ratio you produce has no actual meaning. I mean yes you can divide two random numbers by each other, but that is all you are doing

[Curtis Lemay]

ORIGINAL: loki100

or maybe you are comparing apples and pink hippos, and, inevitably, the ratio you produce has no actual meaning. I mean yes you can divide two random numbers by each other, but that is all you are doing

They are not random numbers. They are the official total recovered and the total deaths. In other words, the Total Resolved. That's all I'm doing is a simple act of arithmetic on the raw data from the WHO.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

ORIGINAL: Zovs

Bob and Jack both of your numbers are incorrect, even the WHO numbers are faulty. Why you ask? Because the Chinese are not reporting all the cases of confirmed and dead.

China is not telling the truth on their actual numbers.

Those that would believe what the Chinese communist party is reporting, well I have a golden bridge for sale, it’s a steal at $50 bucks.

More "belief". I simply choose not to deal in belief.

That is why you post the numbers that you do. To incite panic, to confuse the issue.

BTW, how is your online store doing? Or are you just selling alongside the highway?

[Curtis Lemay]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

ORIGINAL: Zovs

Bob and Jack both of your numbers are incorrect, even the WHO numbers are faulty. Why you ask? Because the Chinese are not reporting all the cases of confirmed and dead.

China is not telling the truth on their actual numbers.

Those that would believe what the Chinese communist party is reporting, well I have a golden bridge for sale, it’s a steal at $50 bucks.

More "belief". I simply choose not to deal in belief.

That is why you post the numbers that you do. To incite panic, to confuse the issue.

BTW, how is your online store doing? Or are you just selling alongside the highway?

Make that pathological liar.

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

ORIGINAL: loki100

or maybe you are comparing apples and pink hippos, and, inevitably, the ratio you produce has no actual meaning. I mean yes you can divide two random numbers by each other, but that is all you are doing

They are not random numbers. They are the official total recovered and the total deaths. In other words, the Total Resolved. That's all I'm doing is a simple act of arithmetic on the raw data from the WHO.

except the two numbers combined are as meaningful as if I posted the cat:bike ratio in my house.

Lets take this slowly.

We know (ie good statistical modelling keeps on coming back to this) that in the context of a decent functioning secondary health care system this virus has a mortality rate in the 1-2% range (now please note there are some conditional elements to that sentence). So far worse than a normal flu season.

We know (& this ratio really does stack up), that 20% of those infected get a really nasty dose. The spread of this 20% of course maps onto age and other existing health variables but the ratio works at the population level.

We know (ie statistics again), that around 40-50% of this group (so 8-10% of the those infected) need secondary health care to survive.

We also know (ie we know the ratio but we don't yet know why) that it seems that the virus infects up to 75-80% of a population group.

So lets take a hugely vulnerable group. Say the Syrian internal refugees in Idlib - probably as vulnerable as any group on the planet and totally lacking secondary medical care. The most likely death rate is around 10% directly due to the virus - think we can all agree its truely horrific but its only 50% of the number you are claiming for the global population. Now given that group, and most other refugee groups, such a loss will cause secondary deaths as family/social ties collapse.

In effect, this is stats 101. First lesson when I start teaching multivariate techniques is to go on about common sense. Always have a rough and ready idea where the answer can lie. The global mortality for this at the moment cannot be the 20% you so prettily display. QED - your method is wrong.

[Curtis Lemay]

ORIGINAL: loki100

except the two numbers combined are as meaningful as if I posted the cat:bike ratio in my house.

Lets take this slowly.

We know (ie good statistical modelling keeps on coming back to this) that in the context of a decent functioning secondary health care system this virus has a mortality rate in the 1-2% range (now please note there are some conditional elements to that sentence). So far worse than a normal flu season.

We know (& this ratio really does stack up), that 20% of those infected get a really nasty dose. The spread of this 20% of course maps onto age and other existing health variables but the ratio works at the population level.

We know (ie statistics again), that around 40-50% of this group (so 8-10% of the those infected) need secondary health care to survive.

We also know (ie we know the ratio but we don't yet know why) that it seems that the virus infects up to 75-80% of a population group.

So lets take a hugely vulnerable group. Say the Syrian internal refugees in Idlib - probably as vulnerable as any group on the planet and totally lacking secondary medical care. The most likely death rate is around 10% directly due to the virus - think we can all agree its truely horrific but its only 50% of the number you are claiming for the global population. Now given that group, and most other refugee groups, such a loss will cause secondary deaths as family/social ties collapse.

In effect, this is stats 101. First lesson when I start teaching multivariate techniques is to go on about common sense. Always have a rough and ready idea where the answer can lie. The global mortality for this at the moment cannot be the 20% you so prettily display. QED - your method is wrong.

You can go as slowly as you like. It doesn't make any of the above anything more than belief. You are speculating. None of it is based upon the official numbers.

[Red2112]

Should we thank you for your "golden" numbers? Because I don´t get it, if so what are you doing here? Why are they not paying you for the truth, or you devine vertude with numbers?

Like I said, we see numbers everyday Rico, we are VERY aware what they are, as we are very aware that REAL numbers are not being taken into account (everywhere, not only in China), because AGAIN, not enough test kits, or they are lieing! Do we need that here too?

People that are being recoverd are asking if they should be tested again to see if they have been infected again. No way, as there´s not enough test kits! This is happening all over the world. But Bob Ross and his magical paint kit seems to resist to that fact!

[rico21]

These figures show globally the general effectiveness against covid 19. The figures will go up very high and when they come down it will be the moment when humanity will subdue the beast.

[Red2112]

ORIGINAL: rico21

These figures show globally the general effectiveness against covid 19. The figures will go up very high and when they come down it will be the moment when humanity will subdue the beast.

Is this something we don´t already know?

Plenty of things going on that we can talk about, like the need´s of the frontline, and what they are missing in terms of supplies and protection. That´s what we really know.

Did you know that the elder, which of most don´t have a credit card are having issues to withdraw money from there bank? Do they have somebody who can go to the bank for them? As they are very vulnerable, and should stay isolated. So many things that are worth talking about that need solutions, besides some statistics in a graph. They won´t go down if we don´t take care of all these other related issues, which is my point.

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay


...

You can go as slowly as you like. It doesn't make any of the above anything more than belief. You are speculating. None of it is based upon the official numbers.

If I were you, I'd be applying for my Nobel Prize now. You've identified a death rate well in excess of anyone else, in fact well in excess of the % who will get a dangerous form of infection, and ... (in your world) you are utterly right.

Don't waste your time on us mere mortals, take your graphs and go for glory [8D]

[Curtis Lemay]

ORIGINAL: loki100

If I were you, I'd be applying for my Nobel Prize now. You've identified a death rate well in excess of anyone else, in fact well in excess of the % who will get a dangerous form of infection, and ... (in your world) you are utterly right.

Don't waste your time on us mere mortals, take your graphs and go for glory [8D]

It is a FACT: Of all the known resolved corona virus cases worldwide, over 20% have died. I'm only expressing facts.

You are welcome to your opinion. But, if you had any integrity, you would admit that's all that you're proffering.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

ORIGINAL: loki100

If I were you, I'd be applying for my Nobel Prize now. You've identified a death rate well in excess of anyone else, in fact well in excess of the % who will get a dangerous form of infection, and ... (in your world) you are utterly right.

Don't waste your time on us mere mortals, take your graphs and go for glory [8D]

It is a FACT: Of all the known resolved corona virus cases worldwide, over 20% have died. I'm only expressing facts.

You are welcome to your opinion. But, if you had any integrity, you would admit that's all that you're proffering.

If what you are consuming is legal, would you kindly share what it is?

[Curtis Lemay]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

ORIGINAL: loki100

If I were you, I'd be applying for my Nobel Prize now. You've identified a death rate well in excess of anyone else, in fact well in excess of the % who will get a dangerous form of infection, and ... (in your world) you are utterly right.

Don't waste your time on us mere mortals, take your graphs and go for glory [8D]

It is a FACT: Of all the known resolved corona virus cases worldwide, over 20% have died. I'm only expressing facts.

You are welcome to your opinion. But, if you had any integrity, you would admit that's all that you're proffering.

If what you are consuming is legal, would you kindly share what it is?

More lies.

[Lobster]

ORIGINAL: loki100

You've identified a death rate well in excess of anyone else

Not true. Just sayin.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay




It is a FACT: Of all the known resolved corona virus cases worldwide, over 20% have died. I'm only expressing facts.

You are welcome to your opinion. But, if you had any integrity, you would admit that's all that you're proffering.

If what you are consuming is legal, would you kindly share what it is?

More lies.

What lies?

[Lobster]

In Miami people are being tested to see if they have antibodies to the virus whether or not they have had symptoms. This will eventually be done in other parts of the U.S. In this way a better picture will be made of how wide spread the virus is and who can go back to work because they now have immunity.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Lobster

In Miami people are being tested to see if they have antibodies to the virus whether or not they have had symptoms. This will eventually be done in other parts of the U.S. In this way a better picture will be made of how wide spread the virus is and who can go back to work because they now have immunity.

Not just that but their plasma can be used to treat people who are sick from the virus.

[MrRoadrunner]

70,482/1,288,372 = 5.5%

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: loki100

except the two numbers combined are as meaningful as if I posted the cat:bike ratio in my house......


You've identified a death rate well in excess of anyone else.....

warspite1

Mate, for the sake of your own sanity, give it up. Nothing you say will stop these pretty graphs and the 'death rate' - totally ridiculous, alarmist nonsense in isolation though it is - from being presented.

That the same numbers (without the totally redundant "Total Cases" which form no part of his calculation) are posted in places such as worldometers appears lost on some. Their numbers are suitably caveated to clearly state that they are based on "cases which had an outcome" and which have the serious/critical numbers as a % of the active cases next to it, and which provide further useful links - one of which clearly states "A precise estimate of the case fatality rate is therefore impossible at present". But then, they have obviously tried to present numbers in a more meaningful form but this distinction appears to be totally lost on the "I hate to be the bearer of bad news but we've been calculating this all wrong" brigade.

He is happy to create graphs of totally meaningless numbers, without explanation or caveat, for no useful purpose whatsoever, so why not just let him and save yourself the aggravation?

By the way vis a vis your first comment, do you like my pretty pie chart? Maybe could do with a dash of colour?

I think I can safely conclude from this that I have a cat light/bike heavy type scenario going on chez warspite.