The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[paullus99]

He's horribly short of cruisers - that's going to really hurt.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: witpqs
It makes sense for John to do both at once provided he can coordinate them, and of course you will try to thwart that coordination.

With Mini KB out of position to make a rendezvous in the near term, I'd almost be willing to sit still and say, "Come, John, send in KB." I'll be slowed by providing security to merchantmen, so he'll have a chance. But I'll try not to become a predictable sitting target.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: paullus99

He's horribly short of cruisers - that's going to really hurt.

I'm going from memory here (always dangerous), but I think Kumano was damaged in the Sulu Sea region near the beginning of Fun House. It's good to whack her again, to reinforce whatever her damaged state is.

I think Nagara took two torps from a sub, near Soerabaja, three months or more back. So hurting her a bit helps too.

Slowing his capital ships is especially effective now, because he doesn't have good options to repair them, and at reduced speed it should be that much harder for him to extract them from the DEI and get them to the Home Island.

[Lowpe]

CR, what could Japan be doing that would slow you down?

What is the threshold number of fighters at Singers at which point you might not send in the B29s?

Are you looking now to be opportunistic and pick up empty bases only, or those with sigint that details super weak forces?

How afraid of kamikazes are you?

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: paullus99

He's horribly short of cruisers - that's going to really hurt.

I'm going from memory here (always dangerous), but I think Kumano was damaged in the Sulu Sea region near the beginning of Fun House. It's good to whack her again, to reinforce whatever her damaged state is.

I think Nagara took two torps from a sub, near Soerabaja, three months or more back. So hurting her a bit helps too.

Slowing his capital ships is especially effective now, because he doesn't have good options to repair them, and at reduced speed it should be that much harder for him to extract them from the DEI and get them to the Home Island.

This actually mimics reality. By mid 44 Japan had two choices when retiring damaged ships to safety. They could go the the home islands where there were capable shipyard that could repair them but very limited fuel or they could retire to Singapore where there was plenty of fuel but the repair yards were not big enough to fix major damage. Not to mention that Singapore was vulnerable to air raids. Basically at this stage of the war, heavy damage to a large ship was as good as sinking it.

[Lecivius]

500 pounders are not gonna do a lot to BB's or CA's. Good hits on the rest, but the heavier ships can take that many 1000 pounders before showing a dent in the paint.

[DW]

I have to wonder if John is keeping mKB in the DEI because he doesn't have enough fuel around the HI to operate both KB and mKB for any length of time.

While keeping mKB in the DEI does keep Canoe honest in discouraging snap invasions without DS support, that seems like a small benefit compared to operating KB and mKB in conjunction, so I can't figure out why he didn't move mKB north when he had the chance.

On the other hand, he's being so liberal with moving KB around, it doesn't seem like fuel is a concern for him.

In some ways, John's play makes sense to me, in other ways it leaves me perplexed.

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

500 pounders are not gonna do a lot to BB's or CA's. Good hits on the rest, but the heavier ships can take that many 1000 pounders before showing a dent in the paint.

That many 1000 pounders will sink most BBs. I have sunk Musashi with as little as 25 1000 pounders.
That many 500 pounders will surely destroy topside AA guns, start numerous fires and raise system damage to a high level.
Those ships may never leave that port if he keeps it up.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

CR, what could Japan be doing that would slow you down?

The key to Japan slowing the Allies is, as most everyone knows, to trade land for time. John failed to do that in Burma and, more importantly, in the DEI and Philippines. Instead of withdrawing, he maintained a strong front and neglected his interior. That and the loss of so many carriers is what's really hurt him.

At this point, he needs well-defended interlocking airfields in the vicinity of likely targets. He's striving to cobble things together in certain areas, but I think he's underprepared again in several key areas.

I understand why he allocated his AA to strategic targets, but he really needed some on the front lines to dampen the effect of Allied bombing raids.

I think his use of KB and Mini KB have been somewhat effective. While he's missed the chance to attack at odds measurably better than they'd be today, he has slowed down my advance measurably by keeping KB positioned around Iwo/Pagan/Marcus. That forced me to take the long way around several times. If he did lose a one-sided carrier battle, there would be nothing to stop the Allies from doing what they wanted.

What is the threshold number of fighters at Singers at which point you might not send in the B29s?

I don't know. I don't use my 4EB against hardened targets often (unless within sweeping-fighter range). But I'll usually chance it on occasion, to keep John honest if nothing else.

Are you looking now to be opportunistic and pick up empty bases only, or those with sigint that details super weak forces?

I'm looking for empty bases or easy pickings where they'll help the bigger causes, but at this point I'm trying to find and engage major parts of the Japanese army.

How afraid of kamikazes are you?

It has been something like eight years since I faced kamikazes. I don't know how bad they'll be. I respect them, but I don't know if I'm leaning too far forward, one way or another.

But I do know this: If Death Star can't move forward under these circumstances, with big Allied airfields now or soon to be in proximity, and with Allied fighters usually getting the better of Japanese fighters....then I can never move forward.

John may strike and win a battle, but the circumstances are about as favorable for pushing forward as they could possibly. be.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

500 pounders are not gonna do a lot to BB's or CA's. Good hits on the rest, but the heavier ships can take that many 1000 pounders before showing a dent in the paint.

That many 1000 pounders will sink most BBs. I have sunk Musashi with as little as 25 1000 pounders.
That many 500 pounders will surely destroy topside AA guns, start numerous fires and raise system damage to a high level.
Those ships may never leave that port if he keeps it up.

And they both showed heavy fires, which begets other damage. Those BBs are badly hurt, I think.

[Canoerebel]

For comparison purposes, this shows Miri's oil production compared to the previous day (see post about a page back). I think the increase is somewhere near 2k, not 3.5k as I had previously estimated.

[JohnDillworth]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

7/01/44

Sub Warfare: I'm attending to moderately to heavily damaged subs today, making sure that all are en route to ports. Manila's size-40 shipyard will come into play now. But it may be time to ramp down the sub war, as enemy ASW makes it difficult and costly to accomplish anything.

You get tons of subs and ht risk of putting them out there is worth the reward. Escorts run out of ammo and if you hit a convoy for a few turns you will start to pick off tankers. On the other hand you probably won't have too many air gaps between the resources and the HI so air power might just stop his convoys cold. Not sure how much he can haul back with the gap closing

[BillBrown]

You have 263 refineries which will produce 2,367 fuel per turn. But you only have 193 oil which will produce 1,930 oil per turn which will be the limit
of what you produce each turn. You do have a small stockpile of oil ( 1058 ) which will increase your output for a few turns.

You have more than 10,000 supplies there so you could repair some oil to give you more fuel production.

[Canoerebel]

Here's why I won't use supply to repair oil production at Miri:

1. Supply is as valuable (possibly moreso) than fuel.
2. Getting supply that far forward is risky - Miri is at the limit of my frontier and prone to enemy attacks.
3. Miri has a small port, making the unloading of supply slow. I've just unloaded about 14k supply using valuable AKs. One more day and those ships can retire, and Miri is "set" for a long time to come.
4. Meanwhile, Miri will generate a certain amount of fuel every day - currently at 32k it should increase, I gather, by at leas 1k per day into perpetuity, as long as it isn't damaged. That should be fine for my purposes.
5. Balikpapan is available and much bigger. It'll be targeted within a month or two (perhaps as soon as Death Star has completed the first phases of Peep Show - amphibious assault followed by security).

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Here's why I won't use supply to repair oil production at Miri:

1. Supply is as valuable (possibly moreso) than fuel.
2. Getting supply that far forward is risky - Miri is at the limit of my frontier and prone to enemy attacks.
3. Miri has a small port, making the unloading of supply slow. I've just unloaded about 14k supply using valuable AKs. One more day and those ships can retire, and Miri is "set" for a long time to come.
4. Meanwhile, Miri will generate a certain amount of fuel every day - currently at 32k it should increase, I gather, by at leas 1k per day into perpetuity, as long as it isn't damaged. That should be fine for my purposes.
5. Balikpapan is available and much bigger. It'll be targeted within a month or two (perhaps as soon as Death Star has completed the first phases of Peep Show - amphibious assault followed by security).

Unless Tarakan has been trashed you can get some oil/fuel out of there too. A bit closer to your bases than Balikpapan.

[HansBolter]

Boela and the small base east of it on NG both produce small amounts of oil. If you picked them up on your way through that advance path it would be worth setting up a CS convoy from both of them to a refinery.

[BillBrown]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Here's why I won't use supply to repair oil production at Miri:

1. Supply is as valuable (possibly moreso) than fuel.
2. Getting supply that far forward is risky - Miri is at the limit of my frontier and prone to enemy attacks.
3. Miri has a small port, making the unloading of supply slow. I've just unloaded about 14k supply using valuable AKs. One more day and those ships can retire, and Miri is "set" for a long time to come.
4. Meanwhile, Miri will generate a certain amount of fuel every day - currently at 32k it should increase, I gather, by at leas 1k per day into perpetuity, as long as it isn't damaged. That should be fine for my purposes.
5. Balikpapan is available and much bigger. It'll be targeted within a month or two (perhaps as soon as Death Star has completed the first phases of Peep Show - amphibious assault followed by security).

I did not say you should, I just stated that you could. I would not do it, but I like to give all the options I can think of.

[BBfanboy]

John's carriers may be in the Bonins area to upgrade aircraft - his reference to a momentous event on July 01. I expect it would be the Sam replacing the Zeros.
He is not going to come until a substantial part of KB gets the upgrade, and while he does that, he may lose his best chance at a strategic "great battle".

[Barb]

IMHO, John should:
1) Try to run MKB to join forces with KB - either to the north or south, the decision is his, but it should be done sooner than later.
2) Try to keep line Japan-Mariana-New Guinea under KB - you will be forced to run the long way around with any reinforcements/supply.
3) Try to keep the SRA "on the cheap" - less valuable combat ships, escorts, light striking forces, plus LBA
4) Run every available drop of oil/fuel/resource/supply to the Saigon/Haiphong/Hong-Kong as quickly as possible (IIRC - you are running a standard game, so supply will be generated by refineries too), before even that opportunity closes up.
5) Keep the Singapore-Sumatra-Java with troops already in the area - he should be able to shuffle them around rather quickly to keep them in strength while allowing for delaying action.
6) Try to keep Formosa-Okinawa-Kyushu line (but it could be already late)
7) Keep the Singapore-Sumatra-Java area with some land planes - both for protection and opportunistic attacks. Airfields should be plenty there...

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth


]
You get tons of subs and ht risk of putting them out there is worth the reward. Escorts run out of ammo and if you hit a convoy for a few turns you will start to pick off tankers. On the other hand you probably won't have too many air gaps between the resources and the HI so air power might just stop his convoys cold. Not sure how much he can haul back with the gap closing

Yeah, this is pretty much my experience. Well trained ASW aircraft working with the (even toned down) super E class will just work havoc on subs. The good news is that they are quick to repair. Frankly, I have given up worrying about sinking the Japanese merchant ships. The sub model combined with the ability to run massive ship TFs pretty much make it impossible to impact Japanese merchant ships. I use my subs with my combat forces to go after Japanese warships. Fewer kills but they are more significant when you do succeed, and your subs are less vulnerable. Direct attacks on oil facilities will get the job done just as well as sinking tankers anyways.

It truly is the one big failing of AE in that the Japanese player should always be sweating the loss of merchant ships to submarines. But that just does not happen.