Random Political Events not WORKING!

[Tom Grosv]

Look guys, I'm telling you, there is a problem with random political events. In my earlier thread I said this -

"Still surprised that the Rumanian border war hasn't occurred by Fall 1940. This is the 5th turn I think where a random political event can happen (Fall 39, Wint 40, Spring 40, Summer 40, Fall 40). One of those turns was taken up by the Finnish Border War but that still leaves four turns where nothing has happened with the Rumanian Border war being the most likely (3rd in the list and 75%). Those are long odds mathematically, arn't they?"

In the same game it is now German turn Spring 41 and there is STILL only the one event checked - Finnish border war. Italy joined the war but by the 33% chance on Vichy declaration, not random events. That means there have been 6 turns where nothing has happened. If I took the Rumanian border war alone, the mathematical chances of that not occurring is approaching absurdity. I'm trying to remember my school boy maths - I think the chance of this event not occurring is 25% or 1 in 4 per turn. By the second turn that is 1 in 16 or 6.25%. By the sixth turn I make that 1 in 4096 or 0.024%. And that is for the Rumanian border war only - the odds get worse when you factor in the 25% chance of the Greece Border war, the 50% chance of Yugoslavian coup (at least for a few turns), 5% chance of Iraq coup and 3% chance for Spain coup.

I ran a test game and found by Fall 40 five events had occurred - Finland, Rumania, Italy, Yougoslavia, Greece.

If I had to guess I'd suggest some technical problem occurred when Italy joined the war on the 33% Vichy declaration - the Finnish war occurred before that. In my test game Italy did not join the Axis by this means. Another alternative is a problem with the Arsenal of Democracy scenario.

Maybe my maths isn't that good but I'm convinced that something isn't right. I noted that in another thread a player complained at how many times Spain joined the Axis - more long odds for Random Political Events.

[WanderingHead]

It does sound improbable. It is very unlikely that only one event would fire over so many turns.

I cannot state that there is no bug. Particularly if there is somehow some funky coupling between different events so that it would rarely be seen.

All I can say that I've been playing this for a while and from the outside it looks like it is doing pretty much what it is supposed to do.

I know that there is a bug with the second Greece event, but that is fixed in the coming patch.

[JanSorensen]

Please mail me a save game showing the bug in action - then I will take a look in debugging mode. My mail is janbs@stofanet.dk

[Tom Grosv]

Thanks Jan, I've emailed you the save game - yell if I haven't done it correctly.

Tom

[JanSorensen]

Thanks Tom,
 
I will take a look at it tomorrow after giving an exam.

[JanSorensen]

I located the culprit. A bug in the code meant that the Rumanian border war would not occur if Rumania was already Pro-Axis. The same issue applied to Finland - but seeing Finland is much less likely to turn pro-Axis from other sources thats hardly noticeable. The Rumanian bug is very noticeable though as you also pointed out.
 
I have coded the fix but I cannot say when it will be in a patch.

[Joel Billings]

The patch has already been sent to Matrix and we're just waiting for them to release it to the public (I can't say whether this will happen before or after the holidays).

I spoke with Gary and along with what Jan found out the following rule clarification is in order:

The Finland Border War Random Event will not occur if Finland is Pro-Axis. The Rumaian Border War Random Event will not occur if Rumania is Pro-Axis.

Perhaps in a future patch we will change this rule, but for now, these are the rules (it assumes that a strongly Pro-Axis country would not be attacked by the Soviet Union).

[Tom Grosv]

Hmmm.....that's really more of a rule "error" than a rule "clarification" as the rules clearly state that the Rumanian border war can occur if Rumania is Pro Axis.
 
This event has become very strange - it now seems it can ONLY occur when Rumania is Leaning Axis - it can't be Leaning or Pro Allied, Balanced, or Pro Axis.  What is the historical reason that constrained the Soviets to only attack with this narrow condition?
 
I think it is quite a blow if this event does not occur.  The Axis will lose the creation of 4 militia units in Rumania and Rumania, Bulgaria and Hungary shifting one state towards the Axis.  It now becomes very important to NOT attack Yugoslavia until after the Rumanina border war has occurred because attacking Yugoslavia before (assuming it is Leaning or Pro Allied) can make Rumania Pro Axis and .......whoops!  Anyone think this is a bit gamey?
 
Not wanting to doubt your analysis, Jan, but I think I'll continue the game to see if an event, any event, occurs.  I still find the lack of events occurring, even taking account the new info on the Rumanian border war, a bit strange.
 
Tom
 
 

[Tom Grosv]

Actually, Joel, have I misunderstood what you were saying?  I initially presumed that you were saying the Rumanian/Finnish events were happening precisely as the designers wanted but are you saying that you are altering the rules in light of a bug?  In any case I vote for a change in a future patch.

[WanderingHead]

ORIGINAL: Tom Grosv
Actually, Joel, have I misunderstood what you were saying?  I initially presumed that you were saying the Rumanian/Finnish events were happening precisely as the designers wanted but are you saying that you are altering the rules in light of a bug?  In any case I vote for a change in a future patch.

This is just semantics, right?

There are multiple people working on it, in particular SW implementation and rule writing. Which of the software or the documation is the "official rule" and which one is incorrect is sort of arbitrary.

At any rate, the important things are
1) the rule is clarified, so we know what will actually happen
2) should the rule be changed in future patches?

I don't have a strong feeling either way on changing it. Leaving it as is merely delays the Yugo operation. The main downside is that it is rather subtle for the player to remember.

[JanSorensen]

Even with the rule as written in the manual you wanted to delay Yugoslavia till after the Rumanian border war. If the border war happens first that makes Rumania Pro-Axis thus letting Yugoslavia turn Rumania a full ally. If on the other hand you go for Yugoslavia first that makes Rumania Pro-Axis. If that could be followed by the border war (which isnt possible in code but was said to be possible in the manual) then that would also make Rumania Pro-Axis. So, the border war does not shift Rumania one towards the Axis - it set its to Pro.  

So, sure it would have been better if it was working as said in the manual - but the difference isnt large enough to warrent a patch. Its really a matter logistics - noone wants to push a patch unless it has a significant effect. So, sure its a bug - but for now its "better" to make a note to the rule than to launch a second patch.

Calling it a clarification or calling it a as of yet unfixed bug is pretty much the same - the effect is the same atleast

[Tom Grosv]

ORIGINAL: WanderingHead
This is just semantics, right?

Yes, but I work as a analyst for the police with emphasis on the first four letters of my job.........[:)]

ORIGINAL: JanSorensen
Even with the rule as written in the manual you wanted to delay Yugoslavia till after the Rumanian border war. If the border war happens first that makes Rumania Pro-Axis thus letting Yugoslavia turn Rumania a full ally. If on the other hand you go for Yugoslavia first that makes Rumania Pro-Axis. If that could be followed by the border war (which isnt possible in code but was said to be possible in the manual) then that would also make Rumania Pro-Axis. So, the border war does not shift Rumania one towards the Axis - it set its to Pro.

You're right of course.[&o]

[Tom Grosv]

Well, I played two more turns to Fall 41 but still no random events have occurred.  I'm convinced there was a problem even taking into account the previous discussion about Rumania.  There were still quite a few turns for the Rumania border war to occur before Rumania went Pro-Axis and there were also turns when Yugoslavia (50%) and Greece especially (25%) could have occurred.  It strains maths for nothing to have happened turn after turn.
 
However, I'm keen to load up the upgrade and start a new game - I'm going to keep a careful watch on random events, especially if Italy join the war on the creation of Vichy France.  I also see that one of the improvements is that the random technology event screen now lists the year in which each event is first checked.  Perhaps that will help a check on things?

[Joel Billings]

Yes, the first event with Greece would not happen unless the Italy random event had happened, but this was fixed in the first patch. I think I forgot to list that in the patch readme, but I just confirmed with Gary that this was indeed changed in the patch so that the event does not have to happen (Italy now must be German controlled). I don't know why Yugoslavia hasn't happened. Hopefully just bad die rolls.

[JanSorensen]

The Germans have taken Yugoslavia in the game in question - so its presumeably only a couple of turns where that event didnt trigger due to bad rolls.

[Tom Grosv]

ORIGINAL: Tom Grosv
I also see that one of the improvements is that the random technology event screen now lists the year in which each event is first checked.  Perhaps that will help a check on things?

Errr.... checking my own ramblings of a madman, no, I don't think think improvements in the random TECHNOLOGY event screen will help check the random EVENT screen..........doh!

[Lucky1]

Since the new patch, Spain has been joining the Axis with as much frequency as Italy (i.e., it has never not joined). Usually, Spain becomes Axis in summer or autumn 1940. Although I am assuming that this is a bug, I am wondering if others are having the same problem...[&:]

[Forwarn45]

ORIGINAL: Lucky1

Since the new patch, Spain has been joining the Axis with as much frequency as Italy (i.e., it has never not joined). Usually, Spain becomes Axis in summer or autumn 1940. Although I am assuming that this is a bug, I am wondering if others are having the same problem...[&:]

I haven't played enough games to say for sure - but it's interesting that Spain never joined in the games I had before the patch but it's joined in both of my post-patch PBEM games.

[Tom Grosv]

ORIGINAL: Lucky1

Since the new patch, Spain has been joining the Axis with as much frequency as Italy (i.e., it has never not joined). Usually, Spain becomes Axis in summer or autumn 1940. Although I am assuming that this is a bug, I am wondering if others are having the same problem...[&:]

I've played 2 solitaire games since the patch and Spain has joined the Axis both times. I feel great disquiet over random political events, as my comments in this thread have indicated, and now a new problem. I don't think that myself, Lucky1 and Forwarn45 are just lucky/unlucky.

[christian brown]

Lucky1 has apparently played 15 games with 100 percent Spanish activations, please look into this again......why is this happening so often (it is a real game-changer.)