So Kamikaze attacks aren't effective?

[Chris21wen]

The scenario is Campaign 44 stock and it's 20 Oct 1944.

The overall objective was Morotai. I'd more or less neutralised all major a/f on Mindanao, Sulawesi and the Celebes with my LBs flying from Dutch New Guinea or with my carrier based a/c. I had three CV TFs (6 CV, 3 CVL) covering the invasion plus 3 x CVE (12 CVE). The landing was a complete success capturing Morotai in one turn.

To prepare for my future plans I decided to send my CV towards Tarakan which was out of escort range. This is what happened.

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Day Air attack on TF at 36,61

Japanese aircraft
D4Y Judy x 2

Allied aircraft
F6F Hellcat x 166

Japanese aircraft losses
D4Y Judy: 2 destroyed


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Day Air attack on TF at 36,61

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zeke x 83
D4Y Judy x 16
E13A1 Jake x 23
E7K2 Alf x 3
Ki-43-IIa Oscar x 2

Allied aircraft
F6F Hellcat x 166

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zeke: 83 destroyed
D4Y Judy: 16 destroyed
E13A1 Jake: 23 destroyed
E7K2 Alf: 3 destroyed
Ki-43-IIa Oscar: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F6F Hellcat: 13 destroyed, 7 damaged

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on TF at 36,61

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zeke x 4
D4Y Judy x 3
E13A1 Jake x 4

Allied aircraft
F6F Hellcat x 153

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zeke: 4 destroyed
D4Y Judy: 3 destroyed
E13A1 Jake: 4 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F6F Hellcat: 1 damaged

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on TF at 36,61

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zeke x 389
D4Y Judy x 87
E13A1 Jake x 26
E7K2 Alf x 16
Ki-43-IIa Oscar x 30

Allied aircraft
F6F Hellcat x 153

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zeke: 324 destroyed
D4Y Judy: 87 destroyed
E13A1 Jake: 26 destroyed
E7K2 Alf: 16 destroyed
Ki-43-IIa Oscar: 29 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F6F Hellcat: 95 destroyed

Allied Ships
CL Columbia
DD Conway
CVL Princeton, Kamikaze hits 2, on fire
CV Randolph, Kamikaze hits 4, on fire
CV Enterprise, Kamikaze hits 1
CVL Independence, Kamikaze hits 5, on fire, heavy damage

I will probably lose the Indepenece and two more are not in good shape.

Total aIr losses for the day were:

Japan
Total 663
Air 532
Flak 111

Allied
Total 135
Air 113
Flak 10

[n01487477]

Chris,
gotta expect some of them would get through, 530 + aircraft V 153 Hellcats, you destroyed 450 of them, that is pretty amazing anyway ...

[Nemo121]

Damian said it well.... Even a system which is much less effective than history will score some hits if you give it a lopsided situation. That doesn't change the fact that it is less effective than in RL ( based on the publicly available stats ).
 
In reality 166 Hellcats wouldn't have shot down 532 planes if they came in in such large waves. The sheer amount of time taken to get into firing position, make the passes, dogfight with the escorts etc would have meant more got through through the sheer fact that there wasn't enough time to engage them all. It seems AE will fix much of this but in WiTP it isn't yet fixed.

[Feinder]

It depends on what you consider effective.
 
Japan lost 663vps to sink a 140vp CVL.
 
That CVL is certainly gone.  And if the Randolf out for the rest of war in 1944.  If you're just playing to annoy your opponent, it was successful.
 
But if your're trying to stay in the game as Japan to avoid AV in 1945, trading 663 points for 140 didn't help.
 
-F-

[Nemo121]

In reality though Japan can much more easily build 523 more planes than the US can build/repair that CVL and CV...
 
So, overall, as Japan I'd call this one a win in a real war --- as opposed to a game with autovictory etc.

[Canoerebel]

In both my PBEMs as the Allied player, I would have considered this an Allied victory and I feel sure both my opponents would have considered it a Japanese defeat.

[castor troy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

In both my PBEMs as the Allied player, I would have considered this an Allied victory and I feel sure both my opponents would have considered it a Japanese defeat.

If those Japanese pilots were experienced ones then I can only agree with Canoerebel. Losing 600+ experienced pilots to sink one CVL is a major defeat for the Japanese, no matter which date it is. And there wasn´t even an uber Cap if you only look at the number of Hellcats in the air.

[n01487477]

It'd be interesting to see if they were experienced or not, anyway that is beside the point, 4 CV/L's are out of action for a bit, that overrides any VP considerations, which IMO are just figures of fancy and a/c losses like these are better than rolling over if they have knocked any Allied advance. Replacing these fighters, as Nemo suggests should not be such an effort, pilot training can be done in a month. Franks are also on the way (ok they're not Naval), but these M5's are obsolete by this stage, and better to use as cannon fodder.

Anyway, the point is, sometimes losses like these are acceptable, if they achieve the desired result. I see it as a costly, but necessary victory for the Japanese.

[Feinder]

Replacing these fighters, ... should not be such an effort,
pilot training can be done in a month.

Two of the things I certainly hope are fixed in AE.

[;)]

-F-

[n01487477]

As I hope, will be the action, ensuing carnage and unrealistic report. This is after all stock though [;)]

Cheers

-Damian-

[Shark7]

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

Damian said it well.... Even a system which is much less effective than history will score some hits if you give it a lopsided situation. That doesn't change the fact that it is less effective than in RL ( based on the publicly available stats ).

In reality 166 Hellcats wouldn't have shot down 532 planes if they came in in such large waves. The sheer amount of time taken to get into firing position, make the passes, dogfight with the escorts etc would have meant more got through through the sheer fact that there wasn't enough time to engage them all. It seems AE will fix much of this but in WiTP it isn't yet fixed.

That's the key. With all those planes incoming, shooting down 85%+ of them is completely unrealistic. The Kamikaze hits being higher or lower than reality is irrelevent since the Uber Cap was in play. This is exactly why so many players dislike stock games...the uber cap is far to effective.

[Barb]

Why do people use their Kamikazes against UberCap and Flaktraps? Imagine the result if those planes were sent against unloading transports.. [X(]
I doubt that even 12 CVEs (with FM-2 as fighter) could protect themselves.

[Nemo121]

20th October 1944 - It is highly unlikely these were experienced pilots. If they were then more would have been achieved.

Canoerebel - Well, you and your opponents are welcome to your opinion. I would suggest though that when looked at logistically ( multiple easy to replace airframes - A6M5s and Ki-43 IIs are a dime a dozen at this stage - crewed by largely inexperienced pilots/crews ) what matters here is the logistical question of capacity to replace losses and retain the same capability as existed before the losses occured.

I still suggest it is easier for Japan to build 500 new single-engined airframes than it is for the US to replace a CVL and mount major repairs to an additional CV and CVL.  Thus Japan will retain its capability quicker than the US will - absent major reserves ( which both sides could have in any case ).

Sure people look at the numbers and go "Wow those Japanese losses are massive" but oftentimes they fail to ask the next question "Was it worth it? Operationally? Logistically?"

The losses are large but for the US their CVs are a critical strength and critical weakness. Without the CVs the US has a huge problem advancing as it wishes. Sure, it can be done as I'm showing in my game vs Damian but it becomes many times more difficult.


Barb - Well, it'd be nice if one could tell the kamis to go for transports but most of the time the kamis go for the biggest, most CAPed target within range - aka, the big, bad American CVs with LOADS of Hellcats on board.

[Xxzard]

One thing is for sure: if those results are against uber cap, then going in against non uber cap should yield far more hits even if kami hit rate is relatively low anyway.

So clearly this was not a good idea for the allied player to attack there, and the cap, although uber, was in somewhat low numbers, for whatever reason. That is really a huge number of Japanese aircraft, quite possibly more than I have ever seen in any air raid. [X(]

It just goes to show how crazy uber cap is, seeing as how even if the Jap planes were intercepted 100mi from the target, I think the hellcats would run out of ammo before that number of A/C went down.

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Barb

Why do people use their Kamikazes against UberCap and Flaktraps? Imagine the result if those planes were sent against unloading transports.. [X(]
I doubt that even 12 CVEs (with FM-2 as fighter) could protect themselves.

If you use experienced pilots and not rookies, and there is NO CAP at all, and it's a transport TF anchored with hardly any flak, you'll get about a 10% hit rate, or in other words you'll lose 20-30 Kamis for every transport sunk. Not worth it either.

I am pretty sure Kamis are borked in this game. You can't get anywhere near the historical 13% hit rate, and that hit rate was by ROOKIES against fierce resistance.

I suspect this will get looked at in AE, since the unrealistic Japanese Aircraft production and on-map training will be locked down.

[Canoerebel]

Nemo, I understand what you're saying, but in both my PBEM games, by 1944 or 1945 Japanese air losses are overwhelming every time they sortie in numbers.  In contrast, I have so many carriers that I am constantly moving fresh ones up and "tired" or "damaged ones" back.  I'd shrug off the damage to my CVs and know that the Jap pilot pool was depleted - or more likely had been depleted long ago so that a result like this helps keeps 'em depleted.  In both my PBEM games, the Japs would lose hundreds of aircraft every time there was a major air battle from late '44 onwards. 

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Nemo, I understand what you're saying, but in both my PBEM games, by 1944 or 1945 Japanese air losses are overwhelming every time they sortie in numbers.  In contrast, I have so many carriers that I am constantly moving fresh ones up and "tired" or "damaged ones" back.  I'd shrug off the damage to my CVs and know that the Jap pilot pool was depleted - or more likely had been depleted long ago so that a result like this helps keeps 'em depleted.  In both my PBEM games, the Japs would lose hundreds of aircraft every time there was a major air battle from late '44 onwards. 

I am playing in 1945 as a PBEM, and I have lost over 23,000 aircraft A2A, including 2,500 Franks, 3,200 Tojo, and over 1,000 ea. of Jack, George, Zeros. I have had 300+ planes shot down in a day more times than I can count, with up to 750 in one day A2A. I have sunk nearly 20 BBs, roughly 12 CVE's, 20+ cruisers, and at least 120 DDs or so, yet I'm going to lose, mostly because I have lost 43,000 points in planes, and my opponent has done a very good job keeping up air pressure.

I am looking forward to AE limiting all this scale, as there is no way I should be able to produce over 30 fighters A DAY as I am now (Frank production is 770), train up pilots in China to get everyone up to 70+Exp, but then on the flip side have massive CAP chew all of that to pieces in an afternoon. The Late War really needs to be toned down all around.

[Canoerebel]

Q-Ball, I don't want to change the subject and hijack this thread, but I sure would enjoy a summary of where your game is now.  Could you start a separate thread and give us some info? You're probably in late '44 now as the Japanese player, and I know you've fought well but the Allies are advancing.

[n01487477]

If we're going for bragging rights, Feb '43, we've been taking it easy lately and Nemo didn't start this game with me ... [:D][:D][:D]

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Q-Ball, I don't want to change the subject and hijack this thread, but I sure would enjoy a summary of where your game is now.  Could you start a separate thread and give us some info? You're probably in late '44 now as the Japanese player, and I know you've fought well but the Allies are advancing.

Sure, I'll have to make sure first my opponent doesn't read it, he's on vaca at the moment, and I'm out Wednesday through Sunday in the Bahamas

It's March of 1945, we're probably close to AE induced wrap-up anyway.