Cassino Royale: eskuche vs. tyronec v12.05 (Done)

[eskuche]

Server game, house rules plus a twist!
Harsh blizzard, no +1, random weather, better CV.
For up to 12.05, interception has been an buggy mess, so the only allowed air missions are recon, interdiction, ground support, and city bombing.
No paradrops or invasions.

I have played 3 Axis games (turn 40+, 7 ended, 7 ended) and about 6 Soviet games (turn 18 ended, 1 ended x 3, turn 3 ended, turn 3, chief of staff in team game turn 5-13), so looking forward to a good, long game.

Most interestingly, my willing test subject and I are piloting a semi-randomized Soviet start (apologies if anyone hoped for an Italian involvement in the campaign due to the name). See this thread for details:

[eskuche]

On the flop, Tyronec will be dealt a random smorgasbord of starting Soviet unit positions. 20% of x-y values for the western frontier units up to Minsk or so have been randomly dispersed within legal bounds. Of course, we know fortune favors the house always...

Notable changes, upper map:
1. This tank division will make pocketing the western front a lot harder. Infantry may not quite reach it in time.
2. This infantry unless spotted will make opening the pocket all but certain.
3. The fort here actually removes 5-7 MP from the Axis opener.

[eskuche]

And on the turn we have the following.
4. Displaced strong tank divisions are more likely saved.
5. One infantry shifted to the woods makes the Rovno pocket a bit harder to pull off.
6. One tank division moves north and is probably in danger of the jaws of the super Lvov. Similarly, the slight stacking of the STAVKA armies is in favor of the axis.
7. This random fort zone if not pushed by an infantry may make life miserable by squeezing some armor MP.
8. Mountain divisions run away!

We await turn 1 from our esteemed opponent.
Edit: for the pun, probably should have made a separate post for (8), as the mountain division is on the river...

[eskuche]

Levity aside, I will be taking this game extremely seriously. Expect very pedantic analysis starting now. You have been warned! These thoughts are not just for exposition for to organize my play rather than aimlessly shuffle troops around without a longterm plan. Feel free to discuss. I aim to be proven wrong.

Initial advances
All pockets have held, and the Soviet union is down 57 destroyed units already, with many more to come. In the North, Only one active combat unit survives in the Courland, whereas the Kaunas region has a scant few more. Western front is spared the ravages of turn 1 combat, leaving many forts up. These units will hold there after being supplied to put up a fight for the likely weak security divisions remaining behind. The anticipated surprise units were all captured or had low MP, so no pocket breaking is going to happen. Minsk holds, but the motorized penetration north of it is threatening. Brest garrison was bypassed, although a motorized forays into the Pripyat, not quite daring to cut the rail line. Kovel, Rovno, and the entire Lvov is shut tight. Thankfully, German paranoia keeps the strong Shepetovka armored formations intact.

Rail
2 FBDs towards Riga, 1 to Kaunas, 1 railed to Rumania

Overall armor commitment:
North (7) - 1 PzG has 3 motorized, 4 panzer
Center (10) - 3 PzG has 3 motorized, 3 panzer; 2 PzG has 1 motorized 3 panzer
South (9) - 2 PzG has 1 motorized, 1 panzer, 1 cavalry; 1 PzG has 6 panzer

Uncommitted:
Turn 2 - 16th, 25th, Wiking, LAH motorized, 9th panzer, Rumanian armored
Turn 4 - 60th motorized
Turn 13 - 2nd and 5th panzer
Turn 26 - 203rd panzer regiment

[redrum68]

Pretty impressive German opening given the random unit adjustments.

[eskuche]

Presented here roughly are the logistical concerns of the Axis for the next turn. Dotted purple is maximum line of infantry movement, solid line of infantry movement after flipping of hexes by the Kaunas pocket. Blue lines give maximum depths of panzer penetration as well as, roughly, where the rail will be at 25 hexes next turn. Spotting Model early lets us know Tyronec's intentions: Leningrad first, as with most games. There are three possible goals for the Axis turn 2, in order of importance and likelihood.
1. Convert all of the territory up to the Velikaya
2. Cross the Velikaya, with perhaps a pocket
3. Gambit to sack at Velikie Luki.

#3 was my initial guess, given the slightly weird disposition of 1 Panzer at Daugavpils, as it could be positioned up to 3 hexes to the NE. It turns out that it was used to actually attack the city, so this may be a mistake of miscalculation. We definitely want to prevent #2 and #3, the latter of which is fairly trivial. One unit west of VL will, if attacked, retreat east across the river to protect its HQ. Solving #2 requires thinking of the German psyche. In order to psychologically pass 25 hexes and risk stoppage for up to three turns, the German must needs a juicy enough pocket to warrant the full committal of forces and watch the flanks. Thus, we need to have just enough forces across the river line to prevent this. Units remaining at the southern Velikaya fort line can forestall this movement as well.

Preventing option #1 is much, much more difficult. Many players place brigades and regiments as roadblocks or speedbumps. However, unless they block mandatory hexes, they can simply be circumvented. Worse, they can usually be bumped by a further behind armor unit to allow the forward units to leapfrog. The goal then is to place these blockers at either the limit of rear units or as a defense in depth, at least in this specific situation. Another way to prevent #1 is to threaten flanks, as cutting off circulation to forward armor on turn 3 is a death sentence. They will be paralyzed for two turns, and the area they converted will flip, making the infantry advance even slower.

A different way to solve this problem is to make this flanking threat as obvious as possible. Though cavalry are hard to obtain in the North turn 2, we can make do with infantry divisions that are located just beyond the Daugava. Prime candidates are low TOE, bad morale divisions that can be railed in from elsewhere, with perhaps one or two good divisions sitting on the rough hexes. This kind of blockade will force at least 2 regiments to pocket because of the ZOC conversion rate of infantry. With enough of them, the German hex conversion is cut in half due to mandatory cautious play, delaying arrival of infantry attacks at the Velikaya until turn 5. Because this is a zero sum game, this necessitates lowering the garrison along the Velikaya, which we are completely fine with. The final tally will be about 40,000 men for 2 full turns. As we will (hopefully) see later, this will pay dividends.

[eskuche]

We apply the same principles to the Center. The German goal is to advance infantry as fast as possible. Because the armor has made so much progress already, it is pointless to stick units right in front of them. The optimal Axis play is to make a pocket along the Berezina, letting the armor sit for two turns while infantry advances, or to claim territory with as few panzers as possible.

Where I see a lot of players get caught out, assuming the German XXXIX motorized spearhead advances to their max as we see here, is just by the Rail Max line, with usually a pocket between the Berezina and Ulla rivers, and here we see why. Many of the armor can approach the land bridge, which is usually adequately defended, but, as it is unable to be punctured, the units spaced out in front of it get captured. The Dnepr is uncrossable, and a unit every 3 hexes is sufficient to prevent crossing due to ZOC penalties, further contributing to this path of least resistance. The goal for the defender here, then, can be reached in several ways, as example:

1. Tempt the German to pass by their maximum railhead near the landbridge by placing some vulnerable units in the clear hexes by the Ulla
2. Tempt the German even further south and away by placing a single line of vulnerable units SE of Minsk
3. Prevent free capture of territory by just a few units by spacing out ~4 hexes apart of strong units in swamp hexes.

[EwaldvonKleist]

Good idea (also regarding the first picture [:D]). The opening looks still looks like the strong standard opening, maybe the relocating of units still caused some extra rout-outs?
Regards

[eskuche]

ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist
Good idea (also regarding the first picture [:D]). The opening looks still looks like the strong standard opening, maybe the relocating of units still caused some extra rout-outs?
Regards

Thanks! I spent at least 2 minutes on that image. Very proud of it.
I would say maybe one extra unit in the center preserved. The main part is that it adds some thinking to high level German turn 1's and, as we see here, risk associated with the super Lvov.

[chaos45]

Not quite the current standard German open the Soviet reserve mech army in the south was not defacto encircled on T1. That is a big deal as thats alot of CV the Soviet player then has a chance to escape east with.

[eskuche]

The south is a much more complicated beast and depends heavily on the German opening to adapt to. Perhaps the most important factor to consider is that the railhead extends from Rumania (with a few exceptions given the weird rule that lowest MP distance is calculated first, and then the hex distance derived from it. This leads to situations NE of the Dnestr rough tiles where, although closer as the crow flies to Rumania, the hexes are closer by MP to Poland and thus give a very large hex distance). This means that the entire region west of Kiev is open game for German armor. The only "safe" retreats are towards the Pripyat marshes and towards Odessa, hopefully squeaking out by Nikolaev before the jaws shut close. Many players, myself included, tend to get pocketed in the Kishinev region. Besides the obvious negative part of losing troops which tend to be better than your other ones (turn 1 random morale/exp/TOE rules), a connection to Rumania there generates a slingshot effect whereby panzers are 10-15 hexes from the Rumania railhead and get pushed into Ukraine proper with good MPs.

The Soviet player simply does not have enough resources to prevent everything from happening, as the German is happy to play near Vinnitsa and double envelope Kishinev on turn 2. 11 and 14 Panzer can cross into Rumania to loop around from the south with likely full MP. In conjunction with the very low railcap, then, most of the units there are doomed if the German plays well. I've found four options in the south to either attempt to save those units or let their capture generate the most value.

1. Defend the rail hexes (assuming railing FBD 1 to Rumania, as we have here). Best case scenario, this delays the German two full turns of rail and occupies some of the German divisions and armor for a while. Worst case scenario, units are pushed off the rough tiles easily, and FBD 1 with Rumanian FBD have no trouble getting their 4 hexes converted per turn. This strategem assumes you will get pocketed absolutely, and it can be worthwhile to transfer the units to an army led by Zhukov for maximal CV.
2. Defend behind the Dnestr. This is perhaps the most common opening, but without sufficient blocking of the rail line from Vinnitsa to Odessa, Panzers easily swoop in and make the double envelopment. Now, it is possible with the two cavalry units near Odessa to threaten and opening here, and I will consider this, but I doubt Tyronec will repeat his leaks as in the BrianG game here.
3. Build up NE of Kishinev. This move denies the double envelopment (see 11P and 14P maximum ranges along with all panzers). However, the Germans will almost guarantee a Rumanian railhead the next turn and be able to pocket these units near Nikolaev.
4. Checkboard between Proskurov and Vinnitsa. Units are guaranteed to be lost here, perhaps all of them, but this delays the advancement into Ukraine.

Pripyat options:
1. Hug the marsh. This can be good play. If the Soviet dangles some juicy mech units not quite in the marsh, the German pretty much has to mount a Pavlovian response (that one would expect in the Western front instead!) to claim them. This puts them the armor away from Ukraine. This option is riskier due to the foray to Luminets. Cutting the rail north of Zhitomir dooms all of those units.
2. Strong defense in front of Zhitomir. Similar option, but will take more resources and hanging out in the area to clear the pocket. I have performed this pocket myself and have seen two others do it devolving into a brawl. A reasonable possibility given the German rail plan to delay armor.
3. Checkboard from marsh to Vinnitsa. Probably the most common plan and pretty much guarantees a surround. Panzers will be closer to Ukraine and railhead, so this is a the clear loser in my book.

Which choices I make will depend on my rail options, to be explored in further posts!

[eskuche]

Final setup and German rebuttal for AGN. Battle overlay shows some retreat path interests. Overall, am quite pleased with these results. Tyronec did not fall for any of my distractions, but at the same time was not able to riskily dive all the way past Pskov. Any forts near Pskov are pretty worthless, as when the infantry attack turn 4, any level 2 fort can easily be broken down, with only clear ground to prevent advance after that. Here, we save a bunch of territory being autoconverted and lay the groundwork for some surprise cavalry flanks.

1. These two units put a hard stop to claiming western Latvia easily with motor units. The 8=9 would have required moving into the swamp to attack, at which point it would have retreated to its HQ in the next swamp, taking over 20+ German MP. The lower units withstood two attacks, plus inefficient German movement along the Daugava to clear its ZOC.
2 (x2). The sole purpose of these units was to force the German to guard flanks, notably, only doable with armor on turn 2. There is a tempting though unlikely to succeed attack on the 16=10 with an HQ by it. Regardless, they force the use of 7 (!) divisions here to prevent spearhead units from getting cut off.
3. This staunch defender required two attacks, from three panzer units, to be moved. That's 15 MP total for the first attack, not counting the opportunity cost to line up all three panzer divisions, then at least 7 more MP for the subsequent attacks. Surrounding would have been too costly, so there was no other option.
4 (x2). Risky gambles whereby one or two HQs with no combat units are placed on tough terrain. Recon will show 0?0 if a combat unit under the HQ(s) cannot be raised to high enough detection level.

Only 5 infantry divisions cross the Daugava at Daugavpils but do have a clear pathway to just reach Pskov next turn. Not shown is movement north from the Vilnius pocket to make the direct eastward trek to Daugavpils difficult. This pocket movement gave me a reason to convert the hexes just across the river. A few infantry divisions also are required to screen Riga, another bonus of this turn 1 play by STAVKA, because Estonia was not fully autoconverted. The Soviet can decide to keep playing around here for one more turn (no panzer fuel) or retreat as necessary.

[eskuche]

Administrative Considerations
1. AP. 23 AP were spent turn 1 to bump up reserve rail for units to 33%, giving up 39,000 rail (full rifle division takes ~2k each). On turn 3, this will ~double to 80,000, giving us capability to bring up units from the rear and redistribute units, such as the ones hugging the Pripyat. ~20 AP were spent giving Zhukov command of the yellow 27th army and apportioning him relevant units. ~5 were spent disbanding forts of SW front, giving a total of about half a turn's of armament points equivalent (~4000 each). Support units were elected not to be saved, as under the current patch AA does almost nothing. I will save some of the much larger AA regiments, e.g., from Tallinn, Leningrad, Moscow, if needed.
2. Pocketed units. It is extremely important to supply pocketed units, as it will greatly raise their CV. Combined with stacking units and using rough terrain, this can 1) burn a lot of Axis MP and 2) prevent XP farming from axis units getting more wins. See image below. Supplying units can be done only by aircraft that have 0% flown, so no base transfers. Thus it's important to plan ahead for this on early turns when pockets are a certainty. Having no other viable uses for air makes this decision an easy one to make. Pocketed non-combat units can now be destroyed from the unit panel. This respawns eligible airbases and army/front HQs in the Urals. Doing so needs to be carefully gauged. On one hand, this can greatly free up overloaded fronts, e.g., SW, from using CP on useless units. It can also in some cases give units better ratings if they are automatically attached to a higher HQ that sucks less than the corps HQ. On the other hand, blindly destroying HQs can lead to situations where the immediate HQ on a unit is at the Urals. The lowest Soviet HQ doesn't change from corps to army till IIRC turn 3, so any units under armies that are reforming will take a big hit to their CV.
3. Reinforcements. As mentioned above, railcap is likely the biggest determination of CV and depth for the Soviets in early turns, apart from changing leaders. Because the only place predicted to see substantial fighting was in the Pskov region, no AP was used for that. Instead, it was invested into getting more units to the front lines.

[eskuche]

After extensive scouting and poking, we have discovered some interesting German reallocations. Rail proceeds to Riga and Daugavpils unmolested.
1. This is an effective way to what many lump in with "squeezing the German supply," but the principle is often botched for very little gain, as the MPtorail vs. %fuelrequested table is very, very generous. At least in v1.12, supply is determined by shortest MP first, then the hex distance is back-calculated. I alluded to this in the previous post about hex distance in AGS across mountains. In this case, forcing enemy supply around our unit's ZOC (should at least) will alter the path of least resistance for the trucks. However, they aren't aware when this might change the hex distance to greater than 5. Here, our infantry division cuts off 3rd motorized and 8th panzer, which would have received all of LVI Corp's fuel because they are outside of supply range and thus unconstrained by the normal modifiers when asking. Similarly, 1st panzer is slightly cut off from XXXXI Panzer Corps, making it run on only fumes from last turn. Lesson here? Spreading into divisions may sometimes be the wisest choice even when it's not obviously needed. (You can also outplay me here by swapping the HQs around after running battles with the armor [:D], but most players will abide by the HQ as close to railhead as possible, 5 hexes from units).
2. I have the option to reclaim some river hexes here, but given that the infantry ball has a clear course to Pskov and (3), I may defer.
3. Wiking and LAH are spotted (based on how far they can travel turn 2, I checked an SP game). Given they will have ~150% fuel still, it is not a great idea to hang around Latvia any longer than necessary, especially given that I have no (!) units besides the lone tank division between here and Leningrad. Rail will change this, of course.

German moves: most armor will likely stay still, and Totenkopf with the other SS armor may try to poke into Estonia, but the main idea here is to prevent easy gains with my (still) minimal units. At least two whole corps will be open to attacking the Pskov area in two turns, so our aim is so screen while stronger units set up forts to the east of Pskov. We have to monitor armor for HQBU's next turn, in which case the clear hexes NE of Pskov will need to form an elastic defense that can yield rather than get pocketed.

[eskuche]

In the center, enemy movements were as predicted, with armor barely breaking the maximum rail line. Our goal is, like above, to slow the infantry advance and free land grab against armor that doesn't want to move. The land bridge will need to give a bit against a potential HQBU the following turn. 18th motor is the only armor that didn't move much here.
1. A fortuitous wandering isolated division spots the FBD and kicks it back to AGN HQ! This stops rail advancing towards Vitebsk by two turns, although the middle-northern line will soon catch up. The real boon is prevention of advance towards the Mogilev-Gomel axis.
2. An opportunity to move the 11=13 (note to self, pioneers can add a lot) brings Zhukov out from slumber (Vatutin keeping his post warm in 27th Army by Pskov), but a drastically failed roll determines this won't be an easy pocket clear. However,
3. Our elite 159th rifle division (59 morale) headed to Leningrad took a detour to heroically save their compatriots all the way to Vilnius. Most of the spearhead panzers are at the very limits of supply, so we are guaranteed a breather.
4. 4th Panzer and likely 1st Cavalry/10th motorized divisions likely drove up all the way from Rovno to make life harder for the center.

[eskuche]

The South saw a very interesting Axis opener. As we predicted, concentrating NE of Kishinev gave free ground towards Vinnitsa. At the same time, however, the bulk of the German armor was driven south (or some center). Rail is headed towards Odessa.

1. 3rd and 10th Panzer, perhaps not expecting anything in Vinnitsa, barely closed their pincers but inexplicably outran their XIV's Weitersham (bet GHC is hitting themselves over this on the sister AAR), thus rendering them useless next turn besides some small territorial gains. This reclamation of territory means that now the Soviets have a real to fight (or feign fighting) west of Zhitomir, as this slows down 6th and 17th armies considerably.
2-3. Malinovsky (strong commander) leads his corps to drive back the sole Rumanian armor. According to secret army doctrine obtained by our spies (in the 1.12.05 changelog), they should have retreated towards the town, leaving a space for our security division to squeeze fuel from the spearhead panzers in conjunction with our infiltrating cavalry division. Disappointed by the sunk cost, we commit the security regiment anyway, and 11P will be squeezed out of receiving full supply, but we sacrifice two decent divisions at the Dnestr.
4. Many interesting things going on here. There is a huge abundance of German army and Corps commands, as well as a notable absence from other fronts. The three stack at the border is undoubtedly the indicated armor late to the party (unfreezing turn 2). The fact that 25th motorized was interdicted, and that the top card shows a Panzer division, indicates this is not a split stack unless there were further shenenigans. Most worryingly, the mission 10th motorized and 1st cavalry divisions could indeed be lurking here with full fuel tanks next turn. Thus, we must be extra cautious. They could formally be along with 10th Panzer in the center as well, but the most gains next turn for the Axis are here.

The trick here is to prevent a Nikolaev pocket over two turns, so the river lines must be defended in checkerboard. In turn, the Zhitomir defense by Southwestern front cannot be too forward, else risk encirclement from the South. This could however be utilized to make the panzers drive all the way back north.

Edit: Game is ended, see here for details: https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4892819