Skyfall: eskuche no Teun557 (1.12, interception fix)

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Stay tuned for opening night of the next badly Bond-themed AAR in which the Luftwaffe makes a resurgence!
We will be using randomized starts as well as a makeshift fighter interception fix.

PBEM, 1.12.05, full blizzard no soviet combat bonus, better CV
Only house rules are ground bombing to-be attacked units only, and paradrops limited to one per turn per front within 4 hexes of a unit supplied at the beginning of the turn (+ no opening Rumanian border pocket turn 1)

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AAR title and image just keeps getting better...

[Telemecus]

Inspired by the team games no doubt

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ttl4tQ4fR9c

[Shupov]

Subscribed

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And we're off! New color scheme is in the works, as befitting the Very Serious Wehrmacht war machine. In yellow are RHG/security/rail for easier differentiation. Panzer Gruppen are darker in color, and Rumanians are colored per their national colors.

An overview of the randomized map. I played "blind" as much as possible (I designed the map after all) and looked at the map from first principles. Some of these predicted unit shifts may be wrong. Red circles indicate units that I either missed on recon or have an unknown identity.

1. The removal of some units at the front here will make it very, very slightly easier to break through with 9th army infantry. Not very consequential.
2. The armored unit here and the two unknowns in the swamp make this pocket more dangerous to make. The former probably should be bumped and the latter blocked with armor, which I am loathe to keep so far back.
3. An extra unit in Brest-Litovsk (maybe two) makes it very tempting to pocket as opposed to my usual of using the 4th army siege howitzer to break it down.
4. Removal of units of the Kovel pocket makes me less inclined to pocket it. Many players use cavalry regiments to screen east of Kovel. This is a waste. Further, the border infantry divisions sit on level 2 forts, which I've made good use of as Soviet to hold on 6th army infantry. I plan on pushing all of these units away.
5. The extra tank divisions and the circled unit that I missed until later make the super lvov riskier. I attempt it anyway, as we shall see.
6. The shift of armor away here gives us an opportunity to make a slightly further lunge than normal.

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A teaser for air: first image is Stukas only, the second the final. I very heavily prioritized level bombers because airbase bombing is allowed again. 500 more level bombers destroyed than my past attempts.

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Here is going to be a wall of text which reflects my partially untested opinions. It's always good to try new things, however, and I aim to do so in every game.

Operational Strategy
Turn 1, as many know is extremely important to the German player. The distribution of armor and, to a lesser extent, infantry, decides where Axis goes and, in turn, where a good Soviet player should respond. The key decision I made based on the semi-randomized map above is to go for the super lvov pocket with a slight extension towards the Rumanian border made possible by the slight movement of Soviet tank divisions away from the river. This opening typically not only starts Rumania turn 2 but also encircles Rovno and latches panzers onto the Shepetovka mechanized corps, which are partially frozen and thus doomed turns 2-4. This requires more than normal armor commitment from AGC, robbing Guderian to pay von Kleist, as it were, but exacts a heavy price on the Soviet SW front. This in turn means less armor for AGC and AGN, so Axis can either play a middling game (heh) center or take away armor from AGN. This next decision is decided by the capabilities and potential gains of turns 2-3. While a reasonable pocket is usually possible turn 2 in AGC, this takes panzers out of action until turn 4. In AGN, instead, a mailed fist will earn, immediately, more hexes towards Leningrad and, equally importantly, less turns of fort building at the Luga. Thus, we will focus on AGN and leave AGC to go slow until Leningrad is solved.

Miscellaneous considerations
•AP: there is a trap (IMHO) many players fall into of getting commanders replaced (even if for cheap, at 4th Army, due to von Rundstedt's 9 political rating) and (this will be controversial), lessening the load on overburdened HQs. Infantry ratings, for the most part, will not matter in early turns. Replaced commanders will give their ratings to only 4 units. The best case scenario is getting your elite infantry across the Daugava by, for example, giving I corps 4 x 90 morale infantry divisions and Model, whose high admin/initiative ratings will ensure these infantry don't take the -20% cumulative MP hit for failing these checks. This has the opportunity cost of ~10 AP, however.
•Who to reassign? Two game concepts apply here. One, your units all start with ~180% supply/fuel/ammo, which means they will NOT receive any supply through their HQs turn 2, and possibly not even turn 3. This means that infantry do not actually need to be within 5 hexes of their HQ for these early turns, and you don't need to waste AP reassigning them. Even for armor, ending turn 1 at 85% fuel, which can be topped up with air supply, means that being in range of HQ will only refill a fraction of the remainder (you will be at 18-25 hexes from supply, remember), and being outside HQ range brings this only to, say, 89% instead of 87%. Two, while overloaded armies are bad, corps act as a buffer for the ratings system. Say you have a 26:24 army with 5 ratings and 8:8, 10:8, 8:8 corps with 5 ratings as well. The ratings for the 8 CP divisions will be (5/10 + 5/10*(5/22)), or 61.4%, instead of (5/10 + 5/10*(2/20)), or 62.5%, hardly consequential if the AP is better spent elsewhere. The 10:8 divisions will of course suffer due to corps overload (5/12 + 7/12*(5/22) = 55%, but still not gamebreaking. Obviously, if a unit is directly assigned to an army, this is bad because the ratings are affected directly (Totenkopf turn 1, for example). There are IIRC two overloaded corps turn 1 (9th army one with divisions split up and one near Lvov), and it is probably worth it to fix these.

Taking these two facts into account, it behooves the Axis player to look for better uses of AP. One example is reassigning armor up to their armies. Guderian and von Kleist are much better than most of their corps commanders, even with the additional ratings check.

[EwaldvonKleist]

"robbing Guderian to pay von Kleist"
I support that [:D]

Curious to see your take on the super Lvov with the new retreat rules.

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ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist
"robbing Guderian to pay von Kleist"
I support that [:D]
Curious to see your take on the super Lvov with the new retreat rules.

Guderian was not happy with the results (forthcoming). Perhaps trying this for the first time on a modified map was inauspicious.

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Going by the previous principles, here is my turn 1 start: fairly good progress in the north, with some very tough decisions to make in the center. Elite divisions (85+ morale) are colored in red.

1. I brought up eight infantry divisions by rail (2 in 9th army, 2 from L Corps of 18th army, and 4 from 4th army, including two elite divisions. These, in addition to the security divisions, were able to clear the frontier units, paving the way for (2). Yellow corps starts under OKH and is the perfect candidate to run through Estonia, as opposed to having precious 18 army command space doing it.
2. The infantry ball seen here (11 divisions) ready to cross the Daugava on turn 2. Also note the location of Totenkopf. I see many players keep it around Talsi, but this forces movement through a lot of enemy hexes next turn. One tip here: infantry ball CAN attack if it has an odd number of MP remaining (hasty attacks 1 MP, moves 2 MP in turn 1, so always try to use all their MP up if it helps another division).
3. I got greedy here and made an attack I shouldn't have, routing two units further northeast. In my last game, I used these units to cut off the eastern march to Daugavpils for the infantry turn 2.
4. Eight armor divisions cross the river, with some a fewer hexes than normal (at Riga). Splitting into regiments gives me guarantee of on initiative and admin rolls. As I mentioned in the starting post, range to immediate HQ does not affect rolls, although it might affect vehicles! As we'll see next turn, oops. Regardless, CP allowing, it is sometimes worth underloading HQs to get these bonuses listed below. One bonus adds to the leader rating, and one bonus decreases the roll range, which have very slightly different mathematical nuances...

11.3.2.5. Size Penalty
A local penalty that is applied all to initiative and administrative checks, +1 is added to roll range value for unbroken Corps units, and -1 is subtracted from roll range value for Brigade and smaller units, including broken down Tank/Mechanized Corps and German Divisions. It does not apply to HQ units.
11.3.2.7 Tank/Panzer Army Bonus
This is local bonus that applies to the mechanized (Tank Army only) and administrative checks where +1 is added to leader's skill. The bonus only applies to non-HQ, motorized units attached to Soviet Tank Armies, German Panzer Corps, Panzer Groups or Panzer Armies (11.2.5). It is not cumulative with the Shock/Guards Army bonus but it does apply to all HQs, not just the IHQ. It never applies to temporarily motorised units as temporary motorization is only used to transport units around the map, not to fight.

R. Instead of the traditional three FBD start in the north, I run one towards Vilnius for easier redundancy around turns 10-12. I lose one hex in the north, but this shouldn't matter too much.
5. Unfortunately, due to the HQ to the southwest of this point, the pocket will not contract fully, so I had to use another motorized to push here. Ideally, I would have wrapped the 18-5 division around the south of the rough hex to bump the HQ. Oops. Given my use of the super Lvov, I think I have the absolute minimum amount of armor south of this river to cover Minsk (four).
6. Were it not for the random start and (7), I could possibly have made done with three armor. Unfortunately, the shifted tank divisions necessitated Grossdeutschland bumping it, the airlifting of a security regiment here (as opposed to using a full armor regiment/division). To make this decision, see the inset. Green arcs represent pocket shrinking after logistics. The goal was to land somewhere that absolutely could not be hasty attacked because of the very low CV after air lifting. The cavalry and unknown morale/random MP of the outside unit in addition to the capability of the eastern routed units to rally made this a pretty hard finisher.
7. Two extra units compared to normal stuck in the swamps here tempted me to leave the fortress for turn 2. This was a bad error. See MP charts on the right. In conjunction with the random units, this mistake cost me the use of an additional motorized division in the center.
8. I left barely any units here. The 20-10 was moved after the screenshot to buttress the border, but the goal is to draw out the soviets from their cross river forts. Similar in front of Brest-Litovsk. Let's see if they fall for it.

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We went for the super Lvov pocket here but did not quite reach the desired goal. Commanders will drive armor extra hard turn 2 to make up for the difference.

1. I completely denude this river border to push infantry forward. Several units unfreeze west of the river and can mop up turns 2-5.
2. The circle here was another tank division that I missed. This means I needed two extra divisions to ensure the Rovno pocket and meant that the two divisions at (3) had to be isolated.
3. A motor division at (4) took three attacks to move. This means the 27-1 armor was not able to reach two hexes to the east. This hex is key because 1) it ZOC locks the Shepetovka pocket and 2) as I just discovered, allows Ju-87's to reach two additional airbases near Kiev. This would have driven up air kills by 200-300 more.
4. I push across the Zbruch river towards Proskurov with two extra divisions. This facilitates a turn 2 pocket more easily.
5. Instead of the traditional triple spread, I attack the infantry division and stay as a division. Not shown is an emergently airlifted light infantry division south of the border to prevent intrusion from the west. The mountain divisions at Chernovtsy are quite experienced and have a chance of converting the hex SE of the armor.

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Note: Reserving posts to edit later is not a great idea to notify people of updates. See above post for end of turn 1.

[EwaldvonKleist]

Are game and AAR still ongoing?

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Pockets held, and Soviets in flight across the board. Shown are airbase locations and scouted interception range. A lot of old planes but lots of bombers in the north, relatively inaccessible for now. Center, however, has only ~10 fighter regiments defending some valuable targets (recon, Su-2 tactical bombers).

An almost standard Pskov defense awaits AGN. The starred locations are three important hexes for consideration for axis. The Velikaya line itself matters little, as it can get punched through. For the others, from left to right, a swamp hex across a major river, even defended by a brigade, probably is impenetrable, not just in terms of CV but also MP. Swamp (x3), major river (x3), and hasty attack (x2) means the unit inside gets an 18x (!) multiplier, so a panzer could barely move a security regiment. The fortification right abutting lake Pskov has three units on it. Granted, this could be a ruse with two security regiments, but it's not worth going for, as just across the river is defended as well. Finally, the swamp hexes way to the east are also defended, making a full encirclement of Pskov very unlikely. These units have to be moved with 2-3 motor divisions, which is just not possible. This setup shows that the opponent respects the possibility of a fully encircled Pskov turn 2, indeed, which I had done in just another game. However, this does not mean we cannot gain access for our infantry per the predictions.

As, of course, turn 2 defense is a zero sum game, other locations are by definition less well defended. Here, Velikie Luki is completely up for grabs. The 0?0 on the city itself (after extensive recon) indicates that it is just the original HQ sitting there. The three rifle division to the west and their Corps HQ are frozen till turn 3, so we will try to nab these. The swamp unit even further west is NOT the fortified region like the Polotsk unit probably is. It's in the wrong position, so it's likely an infantry that prevents easy movement across. Finally, the center has a tough job. With only 6 armor, some of which may have to be driven north, a large pocket seems unlikely. We will push for cheap terrain for infantry advance.

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The southern Lvov and Rovno pockets hold. The poorly executed super Lvov does not, and the the spearhead divisions are left isolated but with ~30 and 40 MP each. Air concentration includes a reasonable mix, with many of the long range bombers amassed. A juicy target for sure. Infantry schedule is shown but highly optimistic. The armor towards the Pripyats are all mostly on good forts, and one is tempted to bump them to destroy vehicles. Soviet early armor/motor divisions have impossible to meet paper TOE's, which means they're generally unready and take a 50% CV hit (I think, at least. Can find no documentation to support this notion). The other concentration is around Vinnitsa. However, the empty road to Kiev presents opportunities...

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Sorry for the long delay. 'Tis the season to be working!
In the north, it is decided that we cannot pocket Pskov given the two swamp units. Instead, we push through ground, safely making space for infantry the subsequent turn and even the next. Note the blocking regiments to prevent nuisances from reclaiming hexes that block the best way forward. Only ~7 infantry divisions cross the Daugava due to bad infantry rolls. A portion of the armor here is reassigned to army (orange, light brown)/army group/OKH HQs (both white) to drop their fuel dumps on the spearheads way outrunning the railhead. Because the armor commitment to break Pskov is now somewhat freed up, we make a mad dash towards Velikie Luki after recon showed no defenders other than the frozen rifle corps units west of the city. The pocket isn't secure, but we make way for infantry next turn. Note the one airlifted infantry regiment with a StuG regiment backup. In one fell swoop, we have unhinged one side of the land bridge defense and paved the way for infantry advance to Moscow.

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Center is uninteresting. No real gains. Most of the frozen panzers are sent there, however.

In the South, we take advantage of the open road to Kiev to bust across the Dneipr. The leaked super Lvov pocket bordering the Pripyat is untouchable, and we open the supply path for armor near Rumania next turn. However, the majority of the frontier armies, including several premier armor formations, are caught to be cleaned up. The road to Ukraine is likely open next turn with an option to continue past Kiev. One motorized division is sent on rail and split into regiments to confuse any recon.