Announcing: Oceanic Horizons an Extended Cold War mod

[kahta]

As I've alluded to in a few posts here and on the Discord server, I've been using chatgpt to generate an alternative history of the cold war and started to build out scenarios for it. The first scenario, involving the Soviet invasion of Iceland will be posted in the next few days.

The airfields of Iceland in the first scenario are based on extracting data from Open Street Map, adding them via lua script, and then modifying them to incorporate changes from the timeline. Additional changes in the first scenario include hypothetical Soviet ships such as the Project 1080 missile carrier, Ulyanovsk Class carrier, and hypothetical units from the CMO database.


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The Oceanic Horizons timeline, is a deeply complex alternative Cold War history marked by significant divergences from reality, creating a unique geopolitical landscape. These divergences are grounded in critical historical events and shifts that redefine the global balance of power.

United States and the CDU

In the early 1960s, the United States develops the Committee for Defense of the Union (CDU), a hawkish faction that gains significant influence over U.S. foreign policy with control over all national security agencies. The CDU aggressively intervenes worldwide in the name of anti-Communism, supporting authoritarian regimes, exploiting Africa through the FAEZ, and fostering Cold War escalations.

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Middle East Transformations

In the Oceanic Horizons timeline, the Soviet Union avoids its real-life invasion of Afghanistan, instead keeping the country neutral. This prevents the rise of Islamist militancy within Afghanistan and allows the USSR to focus on expanding its influence in the Middle East.

The Iranian Revolution leads to direct U.S. military intervention in support of the Shah, inflaming anti-American sentiment and driving Iran toward the Soviet Union, unlike the historical outcome where Iran became an isolated theocracy.

Saudi Arabia succumbs to civil war in the early 1980s, following the deployment of US troops to stabilize the regime.

Iraq emerges as a dominant regional power through U.S. backing, annexing eastern Saudi Arabia, securing control of Kuwait as a puppet state, and establishing the Gulf Security Pact, which consolidates Gulf nations under Iraqi leadership. Western Saudi Arabia remains a Soviet aligned theocracy following the Stockholm Conference of 1989 while the United States withdraws from the region entirely.

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Turkey and NATO

Turkey, a key NATO ally in real life, withdraws from the alliance during the early 1980s due to Kurdish unrest and U.S. policy failures. It ultimately aligns with the Warsaw Pact and becomes a critical Soviet partner, hosting military bases that provide the USSR access to the Mediterranean and Middle East.

This alignment with the USSR allows Turkey to pursue neo-Ottoman ambitions in the Balkans and Middle East, disrupting NATO's southern flank and creating tensions with Greece.

Western Europe and the Free African Economic Zone (FAEZ)

Portugal, Spain, and France form a neo-colonial bloc within NATO, uniting under the FAEZ to exploit African resources through privatization and neoliberal economic policies. Their aggressive military interventions, such as the invasion of North Africa in 1984 and Madagascar in 1987, provoke insurgencies and international condemnation.

Spain remains authoritarian after Franco’s death, and Portugal’s Estado Novo regime survives. These nations, alongside France, embrace a regressive form of colonial capitalism that drives division within NATO and results in the withdrawal of Denmark, Iceland, and Norway.

The FAEZ’s exploitative and regressive practices, supported by CDU military and economic aid, sharply contrast with historical decolonization and the Cold War's more complex regional dynamics.

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Soviet Economic and Military Evolution

The Soviet Union sustains a stronger economy during the 1980s due to extended periods of high oil prices, avoiding the stagnation that historically contributed to its collapse. This is achieved through enhanced naval shipbuilding capacity, modernization of industrial practices, and strategic alliances with resource-rich nations like Libya and Iraq.

By abstaining from costly interventions like the Afghan invasion and embracing Islamic Marxism to appeal to Muslim-majority states, the USSR builds a broader ideological appeal and solidifies its influence in the Middle East and North Africa.

However, overreliance on energy exports and inefficient state enterprises leaves the USSR vulnerable to the oil glut of the 1990s, which mirrors real-life economic challenges. The timeline’s USSR remains militarily strong but economically fragile by 1998.

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Neutral and Non-Aligned Movements

Iceland and the Nordic countries adopt a defense model rooted in decentralization, neutrality, and mutual aid. Iceland implements a sophisticated surveillance and defense system, other Nordic Alliance partners to do the same. The Nordic Alliance that resists both NATO and Warsaw Pact aggression. The Nordic Alliance consists of Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Iceland.

The timeline’s Nordic countries withdraw from NATO, rejecting its militarism and exploitation, however they still receive military aid and have access to NATO weapons systems.

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Global Alliances and Realignments

Greece becomes a critical NATO member, countering Soviet-aligned Turkey and Albania while navigating intense regional disputes over the Aegean and Cyprus. Historically, Greece’s role was less geopolitically fraught compared to the timeline’s portrayal as a frontline state.

Serbia joins the Warsaw Pact in 1996, allowing the USSR to establish a stronghold in the Balkans, while Kosovo remains a flashpoint for unrest.

[Mgellis]

An interesting alternate history. A couple of suggestions and questions...

I wonder if Turkey might work better as a totally neutral nation? It gives (even encourages) the Soviet Union to use its waters, in return for a promise to defend its neutrality from NATO aggression. This turns the Black Sea into a Soviet lake and allows the Soviets to invest more heavily in Syria, propping up the regime there and making it even more of a threat to Israel on occasion.

FAEZ is an interesting development. When does it get established? Does it change the outcome of the war in Algeria or does it come after 1962, perhaps as a response to Algeria becoming independent? If it is formed in the late 1960s, would it affect the outcome of the Portuguese colonial wars? (That is...are countries like Angola independent, but perhaps subject to regime changing incursions, or are they still Portuguese colonies?)

Not sure Iraq would end up pro-American, although I suppose it might make sense if a secular Iran was so disgusted by American interference that it threw out the Shah and then turned to the Soviets. If the Soviets backed Iran (with whom they share a border), Iraq might break ties with them and turn to the West in return for various trade deals, favors, etc.

Anyway, good luck with the scenarios!

P.S. Thanks for reminding me there is a Command Discord server. I don't get on that much and it occurs to me I should try to be more active.

[kahta]

Appreciate the feedback.

It wasn't included in the summary, but the historical divergence point was a failed assassination attempt on President Kennedy in Dallas in 1963. The creation of CDU is in response to that, with the idea that the entire military and national security complex should fall under one umbrella. Without an LBJ presidency, the United States never enters Vietnam and the election of 1964 is anticipated to be much closer in absence of the assassination. The founding leadership of the CDU is an effort to appeal to a broader electorate in a tight race and Kennedy believed that the CDU could be controlled- initial leadership includes J. Edgar Hoover, Curtis LeMay, and General McArthur. Without LBJ, there is also less momentum behind progressive ideas and more behind the neoliberal ideas espoused by Barry Goldwater, Milton Friedman, and similar thinkers of the era.

An interesting alternate history. A couple of suggestions and questions...

I wonder if Turkey might work better as a totally neutral nation? It gives (even encourages) the Soviet Union to use its waters, in return for a promise to defend its neutrality from NATO aggression. This turns the Black Sea into a Soviet lake and allows the Soviets to invest more heavily in Syria, propping up the regime there and making it even more of a threat to Israel on occasion.

I like that option - I'll see if I can rework the history for that. Turkey is probably the country I struggled the most with because there are significant political crises during the era- the invasion of Cyprus, political violence, a coup, and then issues with the Kurds in the mid-80s- at the same time in this timeline that there is chaos elsewhere in the middle east (Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia) so it was hard to tie it all together.

FAEZ is an interesting development. When does it get established? Does it change the outcome of the war in Algeria or does it come after 1962, perhaps as a response to Algeria becoming independent? If it is formed in the late 1960s, would it affect the outcome of the Portuguese colonial wars? (That is...are countries like Angola independent, but perhaps subject to regime changing incursions, or are they still Portuguese colonies?)

FAEZ was established in as a neoliberal experiment in response to decolonization. As we now know with hindsight, in real life the national security state was heavily involved in 1960s era domestic politics. In this timeline, without the backdrop of the Vietnam war the national security state becomes focused on preventing the rise of communism in post-colonial states by influencing American foreign policy in Africa. This includes releasing an English language version of the incendiary film Adido Africa entitled America Tomorrow with a new ending promoting the vision of post-colonial Africa as a free trade zone without nation states instead of independent states.

As Portuguese leadership continues to face challenges while the Rhodesian Bush war begins, CDU leadership promotes the vision of a coast to coast free trade zone from Angola to Mozambique as a "border" between Southern Africa and the newly independent post-colonial states to the north. Portuguese leadership following the vacancy of office by Salazar goes along with the recommendation and sees it as a solution to their challenges, turning all of their African colonies into FAEZ by 1971. South Africa then turns over administration of Namibia to FAEZ shortly thereafter. Rhodesia then dissolves itself to become part of FAEZ in 1972 as a solution to their challenges. Given the extensive border with the rest of subsaharan Africa, FAEZ becomes a hub for black market trade from the rest of subsaharan Africa at an industrial scale.

FAEZ, despite being an extreme dystopia, is initially a runaway economic success due to the lack of regulation and extreme militarization of society. This is then considered inspirational to Spain (still a dictatorship) and France (still sour over the loss of North African colonies) who follow suit later in the timeline, creating FAEZ extensions in their former North African colonies and when they assist FAEZ in expanding to Madagascar. Later in the timeline, human rights abuses in FAEZ are the reason why the Nordic countries leave NATO and generally leads to diplomatic challenges for the West for the remainder of the timeline.

Without the turmoil of the Portuguese bush war, the regime in Portugal survives and the economic boost from FAEZ mitigates many of the economic concerns that led to the Carnation revolution

(I still need to figure out the history of Zambia and Botswana and how they tie or don't tie into FAEZ)

Not sure Iraq would end up pro-American, although I suppose it might make sense if a secular Iran was so disgusted by American interference that it threw out the Shah and then turned to the Soviets. If the Soviets backed Iran (with whom they share a border), Iraq might break ties with them and turn to the West in return for various trade deals, favors, etc.

The idea is that without the memory of Vietnam the US takes a similar approach in the middle east with the guidance of the ultra-hawkish CDU- full military occupation, reckless carpet bombing, destruction of economic assets, etc. in Iran and Saudi Arabia. In doing so, it blundered so badly that it became a persona non grata in the region and had no choice but to outsource policing of the region to another country. These actions also pushed Iran to turn to the Soviets for assistance in rebuilding. The foreign policy missteps by Dukakis during his presidency serve as an effort to atone for the sins of FAEZ, Iran, and Saudi Arabia by previous American leadership.

Iraq becomes a US ally in a runaway relationship that existed during the real life Iran-Iraq war where the US (and other Western states) armed Iraq against Iran. The Soviet Union then responds by encouraging Kurdish separatism in Iraq, pushing the US and Iraq closer together. The turmoil in the middle east during the 1980s results in high oil prices for the entire decade and into the early 90s as a result of the destruction of oil infrastructure.

I'm open to feedback if you (or anyone else) feels this isn't plausible or realistic. Ultimately my goal is to create a world with different potential scenarios compared to the usual way that "cold war gone hot" type histories play out.

[turmoil]

This is really interesting. The only thing I'd mention that is somewhat questionable is Turkey going towards the Soviet Union who you note are supporting the Kurds in Iraq. I could see it happening if the Kurds aligned themselves with the US more, perhaps if the US brokered peace talks between the Kurds and Iraq or something of that nature. I do really like the idea of Turkey aligning with the WP though, gives a lot of potential for interesting events re: Greece so I'd say keep that aspect if you can.

[kahta]

This is really interesting. The only thing I'd mention that is somewhat questionable is Turkey going towards the Soviet Union who you note are supporting the Kurds in Iraq. I could see it happening if the Kurds aligned themselves with the US more, perhaps if the US brokered peace talks between the Kurds and Iraq or something of that nature. I do really like the idea of Turkey aligning with the WP though, gives a lot of potential for interesting events re: Greece so I'd say keep that aspect if you can.

Thanks, I'm going to try to figure out another solution here that remains plausible but still mixes things up for the scenarios.

[kahta]

Here's the map of the world in 1998 which is still a bit of a work in progress.

[HalfLifeExpert]

I'm unclear on exactly what this "Committee for Defense of the Union (CDU)" actually is.

Is it an agency of the US executive branch? Is it a new form of US Government or a replacement of the US State/Defense Department?

The way you described it, it sounds like what happened is that the extreme right of the early Cold War US (i.e. John Birch Society and the like), took over the US national government and have gone authoritarian or near-authoritarianism. I see it as a sort of doublethink society, where it preaches the freedoms of the US Constitution (if it is still in it's present form) while actually regularly acting against them. A sort of "under the surface" fascist regime, in the sense of always proclaiming the defense of Democracy, while anyone with their head on straight would recognize that such rhetoric is just window dressing, not unlike some Soviet propaganda.

Such a course of events would almost certainly arise from the era of McCarthyism, with the paranoia against Communism growing out of control. It's a not-unreasonable postulation of what could have happened if that mentality was never put in check.

BUT, if the US went down that path, I honestly do not see NATO holding together. I suspect that the Atlantic Alliance would break down over serious concerns about the US becoming the very Authoritarian regime they have forever fought against. There were always real limits to American leadership of the Alliance. It was not the Warsaw Pact where the superpower controlled the other members.

Western and Northern Europe could conceivably band together under Franco-British-West German leadership as a sort of new "Fortress Europa" to protect themselves from an authoritarian Superpower to the east and west. Canada might end up being forced to acquiesce to whatever the US wants from it, unless Europe is able to build up enough force to be able to challenged the US.

The US itself would also face serious domestic problems too. The issue of Race Relations would go down a much worse and darker path than in our own timeline. And there would probably be a perpetual struggle between this CDU and elements of American Society that reject it's very conservative (if not outright authoritarian) policies.

And ultimately, if the forces that I think are behind the CDU actually took over, I think there would inevitably have been a war with the USSR, probably nuclear, as I suspect that faction would have had those who felt that a Nuclear War would be winnable, and might strike when they feel they have enough of a superiority in capability over the Soviets to strike first and suffer "acceptable" losses. Frankly, I seriously doubt a non-irradiated world would make it to 1998 in this scenario.

Assuming Nuclear War does not happen by the 1970s, we would have a multi-polar Cold Warish world, with the USSR, US, Non-Communist Europe, and possibly China (assuming the Sino-Soviet Split still happens), struggling against each other. And everything that WW2 was fought for would be thrown in the trash.

Without further elaboration on the CDU or changes to it, I honestly question the feasibility of much of the rest of your timeline.

[kahta]

Thanks for your detailed feedback, much appreciated. Happy to answer any other questions you have. My research has certainly applied some creative license to what I could find about cold war era geopolitics; I'm far from an expert and have researched this over a number of months. The intent is to create a plausible dystopia (emphasis on plausible) where there is less of a division between the "good guys" and "bad guys" while introducing new scenarios into the mix.

I'm unclear on exactly what this "Committee for Defense of the Union (CDU)" actually is.

Is it an agency of the US executive branch? Is it a new form of US Government or a replacement of the US State/Defense Department?

It's an agency of the executive branch with oversight of the State Department, DoD, CIA, etc. something of a Department of Homeland security with relevant agencies underneath it. It takes a stronger role in trying to shape the outcome of the cold war with an "all agencies" approach.

The way you described it, it sounds like what happened is that the extreme right of the early Cold War US (i.e. John Birch Society and the like), took over the US national government and have gone authoritarian or near-authoritarianism. I see it as a sort of doublethink society, where it preaches the freedoms of the US Constitution (if it is still in it's present form) while actually regularly acting against them. A sort of "under the surface" fascist regime, in the sense of always proclaiming the defense of Democracy, while anyone with their head on straight would recognize that such rhetoric is just window dressing, not unlike some Soviet propaganda.

Such a course of events would almost certainly arise from the era of McCarthyism, with the paranoia against Communism growing out of control. It's a not-unreasonable postulation of what could have happened if that mentality was never put in check.

There is a level of maturity and discretion from CDU leadership that was not present with McCarthyism.

I used creative license applying the real life history of COINTELPRO (and other findings of the Church Committee) in a different context domestically. Actual implementation of this approach; would have remained nuanced, similar to real life:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nayirah_testimony
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_of_Tonkin_incident
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Mockingbird

BUT, if the US went down that path, I honestly do not see NATO holding together. I suspect that the Atlantic Alliance would break down over serious concerns about the US becoming the very Authoritarian regime they have forever fought against. There were always real limits to American leadership of the Alliance. It was not the Warsaw Pact where the superpower controlled the other members.

A few factors I considered in keeping NATO together despite these differences

1) France's approach to decolonization was not peaceful
2) Continued authoritarian governments in Spain and Portugal; no push or expectation for democracy.
3) The countries with the least militaristic/colonial pasts did withdraw from NATO: Norway, Denmark, and Iceland

That leaves (for major powers) West Germany, Italy, and Great Britain.

There are number of examples of American influence or intervention in West Germany and Italy during the cold war, this timeline can be considered an extension of that:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 78808.html
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/America ... in_Germany
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Gladio (several far-right groups were later exposed as funded by Intel agencies)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIA_activities_in_Italy

One can argue (or apply creative license) that a case could be made in the alternative timeline that the "wind of change" in Britain was a temporary movement or that Britain stayed in NATO due to favor of the long-standing "special relationship". British colonies in this timeline largely do follow their historical path of independence but with a more tight-knit British Commonwealth.

The US itself would also face serious domestic problems too. The issue of Race Relations would go down a much worse and darker path than in our own timeline. And there would probably be a perpetual struggle between this CDU and elements of American Society that reject it's very conservative (if not outright authoritarian) policies.

Domestic politics is generally outside of scope of this, but from what I could find on how the world was viewed at the time, it was far different than contemporary views, so I applied creative license here so this wasn't a complete roadblock.

https://www.crmvet.org/docs/60s_crm_public-opinion.pdf
https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/ ... -race-sex/

Carter is still elected in 1976 and Dukakis is elected in '88 as a direct result of the negative American reaction to CDU politics; Dukakis' withdrawal of the US from Guantanamo and Panama as well as the opening of trade with the Soviets can be considered a reflection of this. The election of Perot in '92 and Buchanan in '96 can also be viewed as a reflection of dissatisfaction with the status quo of the world of the 1990s in this alternative timeline.

And ultimately, if the forces that I think are behind the CDU actually took over, I think there would inevitably have been a war with the USSR, probably nuclear, as I suspect that faction would have had those who felt that a Nuclear War would be winnable, and might strike when they feel they have enough of a superiority in capability over the Soviets to strike first and suffer "acceptable" losses. Frankly, I seriously doubt a non-irradiated world would make it to 1998 in this scenario.

Assuming Nuclear War does not happen by the 1970s, we would have a multi-polar Cold Warish world, with the USSR, US, Non-Communist Europe, and possibly China (assuming the Sino-Soviet Split still happens), struggling against each other. And everything that WW2 was fought for would be thrown in the trash.

Without further elaboration on the CDU or changes to it, I honestly question the feasibility of much of the rest of your timeline.

SIOP (no pre delegation) existed as of 1961 and remained in this timeline.

I hope this helped to answer your questions - happy to answer any others or if you feel my this is still outside of plausibility I'd be interested in knowing what you have concerns about.

[kahta]

Updated map attached

[ThunderCBR]

I've actually been working on something very similar for a while now and been doing a lot of research and developing a comprehensive storyline and realistic orders of battle with help of ChatGPT. My basic map looks very similar to yours, except that Denmark (and by default Greenland) is in the SDU in 1949, and Finland is out and neutral but still in the Soviet sphere bsaed on their 1948 treaty. To rationalize how the Soviets could survive and not be economically crushed by the 2000's, I'm using the Kosygin alternate timeline story from alternatehistory.com as an outline of world events (short version: Brezhnev dies early and Alexi Kosygin takes over and starts reforms in the 1970's).

When does your conflict take place? I'm focusing on WW3 in 2008.

The root cause is the Great Recession same as our timeline. Same as our timeline OPEC meets in late October 2008 but does not agree to slow oil production, causing the price of oil to plummet forcing the Soviets who by now are a major energy producer to take action or risk economic ruin. In early November 2008, Saddam Hussein of Iraq with Soviet backing launches an invasion of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia to seize control of energy production in what he labels "Desert Storm". The Soviets reinforce the middle east with air, ground, and naval assets flowing thru the Soviet client states of Afghanistan and Balochistan. The Soviet Northern Fleet with at least two Ulyanovsk carrier battle groups sorties to keep US/UK Atlantic naval forces from reinforcing the Middle East theater.

[kahta]

I've actually been working on something very similar for a while now and been doing a lot of research and developing a comprehensive storyline and realistic orders of battle with help of ChatGPT. My basic map looks very similar to yours, except that Denmark (and by default Greenland) is in the SDU in 1949, and Finland is out and neutral but still in the Soviet sphere bsaed on their 1948 treaty. To rationalize how the Soviets could survive and not be economically crushed by the 2000's, I'm using the Kosygin alternate timeline story from alternatehistory.com as an outline of world events (short version: Brezhnev dies early and Alexi Kosygin takes over and starts reforms in the 1970's).

When does your conflict take place? I'm focusing on WW3 in 2008.

The root cause is the Great Recession same as our timeline. Same as our timeline OPEC meets in late October 2008 but does not agree to slow oil production, causing the price of oil to plummet forcing the Soviets who by now are a major energy producer to take action or risk economic ruin. In early November 2008, Saddam Hussein of Iraq with Soviet backing launches an invasion of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia to seize control of energy production in what he labels "Desert Storm". The Soviets reinforce the middle east with air, ground, and naval assets flowing thru the Soviet client states of Afghanistan and Balochistan. The Soviet Northern Fleet with at least two Ulyanovsk carrier battle groups sorties to keep US/UK Atlantic naval forces from reinforcing the Middle East theater.

My divergence is 1963- JFK is not assassinated, the US never escalates in Vietnam and instead makes a series of interventions in the middle east that result in foreign policy disasters and elevated energy prices throughout the 80s. Dukakis gets elected in '88 and then compounds the issue by stepping back globally. In the 1990s the oil glut happens and devastates the Soviet Union economically which leads to a war breaking out in 1998.

I'll check out the alternative timeline you suggested.

Happy to trade notes or chat on the discord server.

[ThunderCBR]

I try not to use the Discord channel since I didn't appreciate some of the conversation occuring on there, so I try to stick to the forum here. Anyways, here is the basic outline I'm working on for my 2008 scenario with a lot of help from ChatGPT I love the research into plausible worldbuilding for this almost as much building the scenarios in CMO! Its slow going but I'd love to be able to turn this into a battleset. I'm trying to build my scenarios as multi-day endeavors to allow for prep and planning time and the battles to unfold. I'm also designing them so the NATO orders are more strategic leaving the actual battle execution to the player acting as the JTF/theater commander.

If you need a soundtrack to listen to in the background while reading: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_RNXHH4xUYM

Background: The Soviet Economy in 2008
By the early 2000s, under President Vladimir Putin’s leadership, the Soviet economy had fully adopted a state-controlled, semi-market model extending from Alexi Kosygin’s reforms starting in the 1970’s. The USSR is a top oil and gas exporter, supplying Europe, China, and the Global South. Massive investments since the late 1970's and early 1980's in carrier battle groups, advanced submarines, and next-gen aircraft for power projection capabilities. While key industries remain state-owned, private enterprises exist in a Semi-Capitalist system under strict FSB/KGB surveillance. Oil & gas exports contribute 40-50% of government revenues, making Moscow highly vulnerable to price fluctuations. By mid-2008, oil prices had been above $140 per barrel, fueling Soviet military expansion and domestic stability. However, the onset of the U.S. financial crisis in September 2008 causes economic contractions in major oil-consuming nations, reduced global energy demand, and OPEC divisions over production cuts.

October 2008: The Economic and Political Crisis Begins
October 24-25, 2008 – OPEC Meeting in Vienna

• OPEC refuses to cut oil production, leading to a collapse in global oil prices.

• Iraq, Venezuela, and the USSR demand cuts but are overruled by Saudi Arabia and U.S.-aligned Gulf states fearing that cuts could deepen the recession or send the global economy into depression.

• Oil falls below $50 per barrel, devastating Soviet and Iraqi revenue streams, which rely on high prices to fund their economies.

• Soviet leadership under Vladimir Putin sees this as an economic attack orchestrated by the U.S., further fueling tensions.

October 26-27, 2008 – McCain Orders Heightened Military Readiness

• US President John McCain acts aggressively, suspecting an imminent Soviet move.

• The U.S. Navy increases patrols in the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean, anticipating unrest.

• McCain pressures NATO to increase force readiness in Europe.

• SDU leaders are briefed by McCain, and he encourages them to align with NATO if hostilities break out (but SDU remains neutral).

October 28-31, 2008 – Soviet Economic Crisis Deepens

• The Soviet economy enters a tailspin, leading to an emergency Politburo meeting in Moscow.

• Putin decides to act militarily to restore control over global energy markets, concluding that the West will try to collapse the USSR through economic pressure.

• Soviet military moves into a war posture with a partial mobilization, deploying naval assets, bombers, and paratroopers to Middle Eastern bases. Reservists and conscripts begin to report to Category B units.

November 2008: The Iraqi Invasion Begins
November 2-3, 2008 – McCain Puts U.S. Forces in the Middle East on High Alert

• Having anticipated an Iraqi move, McCain orders a full alert of U.S. forces in the Gulf.

• McCain orders USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) and USS John Adams (CVN-76) carrier battle groups to the Persian Gulf before Iraq invades.

• U.S. Intelligence Community reports increased Soviet-Iraqi military activity but lacks confirmation of an imminent invasion.

November 4, 2008 – McCain Re-Elected as U.S. President

• John McCain (R-AZ) wins re-election against Hillary Clinton (D-NY), securing a second term.

• As the world watches the U.S. election, Iraq accelerates war preparations.

November 5-9, 2008 – Iraq Launches “Operation Desert Victory”

• At 0400 local time, Iraq invades Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

• Iraqi armored divisions roll into Kuwait and Saudi Arabia under heavy Soviet air cover from bases in the Caucuses.

• Iraqi forces encounter immediate resistance from Saudi forces, slowing their advance.

November 10-14, 2008 – Bahrain Falls, Qatar Under Threat

• Iraq infantry and Soviet airborne troops invade Bahrain and quickly secure the island nation. Saddam Hussein begins pressuring Qatar to surrender.

• McCain orders the immediate evacuation of U.S. personnel from Bahrain and Qatar, setting up a defense plan.

• Oman refuses to allow Soviet naval movement in the Gulf of Oman, increasing tensions.

• The Saudi royal family flees Riyadh in panic under heavy air and ground assault. Surviving Saudi air forces follow to Jeddah. Nearly all of eastern Saudi Arabia is under Iraqi/Soviet control by the evening of the 14th.

November 15-18, 2008 – Soviet Northern Fleet Moves into Position

• The Soviets move the Northern Fleet toward the GIUK Gap in order to keep NATO forces off balance.

• McCain increases NATO naval patrols around Iceland and Greenland, warning SDU nations of potential Soviet aggression.

• Soviet SSN and SSGN’s begin positioning for convoy interdiction.

• Putin declares full mobilization in a televised address

November 19-20, 2008 – U.S. declares full mobilization

• President McCain declares a national emergency effective at midnight, ordering full mobilization of the U.S. armed forces to counter Soviet aggression.

• The U.S. Congress moves quickly, passing the Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iraq Resolution of 2008, passing 296-133 in the House and 77-23 in the Senate.

• In response to the U.S. mobilization, Putin declares that any attack on Soviet allies will be met by overwhelming Soviet ground, air, and naval power. Populations across the world fear the worst and begin to prepare for World War III.

Late November 2008: Direct U.S.-Soviet Confrontation
November 21, 2008 – The SDU Receives Soviet Overflight Demand

• The Soviets demand overflight of combat aircraft over Iceland and Norway from bases in the Kola Peninsula.

• (90% chance) The SDU, having been warned by McCain, refuses and increases readiness, putting air and naval forces on alert. Icelandic Air-Policing units from Sweden and Norway begin combat air patrols in the Iceland ADIZ.

• (If SDU refuses the above) Putin orders military action against the SDU.

November 23-24, 2008 – U.S. Prepares to Counter the Soviet Offensive

• McCain recognizes that the war is expanding and authorizes U.S. naval and air deployments to the UK. The first U.S. air assets, F-15C’s from the 71st Tactical Fighter Squadron from Langley AFB, arrive and immediately deploy to staging areas in Scotland to reinforce UK air defense.

• Diego Garcia becomes main NATO staging base. Australians reinforce with a squadron of F-111C’s to augment US and UK forces present

November 25, 2008 – First U.S.-Soviet Military Engagement

• Soviet submarines begin attacking NATO supply convoys in the North Atlantic.

• U.S. forces engage Soviet submarines in the Persian Gulf

• U.S. carrier groups begin launching strikes against Soviet and Iraqi positions.

• Soviet Tu-160 bombers attempt to find and strike U.S. carriers in the Arabian Sea.

• In the GIUK Gap, NATO forces intercept and engage Soviet ships, preventing their breakout into the Atlantic.

December 2008: Full-Scale War Begins
December 2, 2008 – Soviet Invasion of Iceland

• Soviet airborne forces land in Iceland, attempting to capture Keflavik.

• McCain orders immediate U.S. reinforcements, sending Marine Expeditionary Units to counterattack.

• SDU air defenses attempt to hold off Soviet bombers.

• Massive Soviet long range missile strikes against airfields in the northern UK as well as the North Sea oil field platforms to degrade UK defensive capability and break British morale.

December 3, 2008 - American public support

• Before the nationally televised game between the Chicago Blackhawks and Anaheim Ducks, a sold out crowd brings flags and signs to show support for U.S. troops abroad, nearly drowning out the national anthem: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tvpxVE_kQXg

December 5-7, 2008 – Major Battles in the North Atlantic

• McCain fully mobilizes NATO forces, bringing in additional carrier strike groups.

• Soviet forces attempt to reinforce Iceland.

• Heavy naval battles erupt around Greenland, Norway, and the UK.

December 10, 2008 – World War III Fully Underway

[kahta]

Very nice!

Completely agreed on the world building. It's been a very fun exercise and I've learned a ton about LLMs in the process.

I have also developed a method to import real world objects from open street map into CMO, let me know if you need anything and I'd be happy to build out a country or a theater. There's really no upper limit to what can be added, I've imported all of the communication towers in a country and then successfully set up PCLS based on the real world locations of communications towers, imported all the airports, etc.

[kahta]

Courtesy of chatgpt, here's a summary of the Soviet Union:

Below is a concise overview of the alternate history developed and refined throughout the conversation. It centers on a prolonged Cold War scenario—often referred to as Oceanic Horizons—in which the Soviet Union outlasts its real-world dissolution and remains a significant, though increasingly fragile, global power into the late 1990s.


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High Energy Prices and Military Expansion

From the 1970s through the early 1990s, high oil and gas revenues propped up the Soviet economy. Rather than modernize or diversify, the USSR invested heavily in military production. This resulted in an impressive conventional and naval buildup, including Kirov-class battlecruisers and Kuznetsov-class carriers. By the 1980s, the USSR briefly enjoyed a notable edge in conventional forces, though it came at the cost of industrial inefficiency and neglected consumer sectors.

Inefficient State Enterprises and Limited Reforms

Despite outward strength, the Soviet economy suffered from chronic inefficiencies. Huge state-owned factories operated under outdated models, while modest reforms launched in 1985 allowed only small private businesses and farms. The USSR remained heavily dependent on energy exports to keep its bloated system afloat. Access to Western products under U.S. President Mike Dukakis (late 1980s) provided short-term consumer relief but further undermined domestic manufacturing.

The Oil Glut, Inflation, and Privatization Shocks (Early–Mid 1990s)

A global oil glut in the early 1990s drastically reduced the USSR’s main source of revenue. As prices fell, severe budget deficits emerged. To cope, the government ended subsidies matching domestic prices with Western imports, triggering inflation and fueling popular discontent. Large state enterprises were converted into employee-owned cooperatives in 1992, but mismanagement led to widespread closures and unemployment. Meanwhile, export controls reimposed by U.S. President Pat Buchanan in 1997 cut off critical Western technology and consumer goods, causing a collapse in the availability of high-quality items on Soviet shelves.

Shifting Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Missteps

While the Soviet Union once seemed on an equal footing with the West, U.S. actions—such as supporting Iraq (which remained closely aligned with Washington)—limited Soviet influence in the Middle East. The USSR also faced instability within its Eastern European bloc, epitomized by the 1994 collapse of Poland’s electrical grid, which caused cascading failures across neighboring states. Simultaneously, other global players like the Free African Economic Zone (FAEZ) and the Nordic Alliance offered contrasting models: the FAEZ exemplified NATO’s neo-colonial resource exploitation, while the Nordic Alliance promoted neutrality, sustainable defense, and ethical governance.

The 1997–2000 Military Window

Despite severe economic strains, the Soviet Union continued to mass-produce conventional military hardware through the 1990s. By the late 1990s, Western nations had begun major procurement efforts of their own, but the Soviet surge in armaments temporarily granted it a window of numerical military superiority from around 1997 to 2000. Soviet leaders recognized this advantage would vanish once NATO’s newer technologies came fully online.

Motivations for War and Future Uncertainty

Facing technological inferiority, economic decline, and renewed Western containment, the Soviet leadership weighed the possibility of launching a conflict to reset the geopolitical playing field. Starting a war could disrupt oil markets (potentially raising prices again), justify continued military production, and unify the restless populace. Yet the risk of a devastating, protracted war with a technologically resurgent NATO loomed large. By 1998, the USSR stood at a crossroads: use its fleeting military edge or accept a diminished role and risk domestic upheaval.


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This alternate history envisions a Soviet Union surviving nearly two decades longer than it did in reality, yet increasingly burdened by economic woes and strategic miscalculations. In spite of momentary strengths—particularly military—the USSR’s inability to adapt to global changes and technological advances left it vulnerable, raising the stark question of how far Moscow might go to maintain superpower status.

[ThunderCBR]

Great storyline! We definitely have similarities in our basic outline!

One of the common threads is the SDU/Nordic Alliance. So I guess our point of divergences are the same at or about 1949. I've always wanted to explore what a Cold War goes hot would look like with the SDU since that means the typical northern flank of NATO is now a neutral party, GIUK gap is open, and no SOSUS, F-15's, and ASW assets on Keflavik. I also theorize that would make the Soviets shift their doctrine to a more power projection capability since an Atlantic breakout is now more feasible. So that means to me more of an emphasis on naval build up including CV's and CVN's eventually to rival American CVBG's. The Kosygin timeline that I alluded to early also makes a strong Soviet Union possible. Without that, I feel the Soviets would be in very similar state to our timeline even without a Brezhnev stagnation era. So I'm combining a few things from various alternate histories into a single scenario to make a CMO battleset signficantly more challenging for NATO. So in my alt history by 2008 the Soviets have the numbers but also almost on par with NATO on technological aspects.

Unfortunately only so many ways to accomplish the buffing of the Soviets without a database editor, but I've done some research and made some basic assumptions for orders of battle. For the US and Soviet air power, I basically froze their OOB from 1990 onward. I did this since there is plenty of information on both sides for that year at the end of the Cold War, both sides are at max strenght from that snapshot in time, and without the collapse of the USSR I theorize that military expenditures and force structures would remain relatively constant given the threat of a NATO-Pact conflict. US/NATO air is relatively easy to update. For Soviet/Pact forces I made some assumptions that given the 1990 OOB's units would modernize over time, so I updated especially the Soviet air power with assets from Russia circa 2008, in some cases using assets from as late as 2015. The assumption there is that with a continuous stream of funding that they would be able to field the weapon systems in development in a timely manner.

I basically did the same with the Soviet Navy. Followed their OOB from the end of the Cold War but then worked on moderizing it based on Soviet plans. So this means a lot more Akula's, FFG's, and other modern surface combatants built in a timely manner. I also make the assumption that in this timeline Sino-Soviet relations would have recovered due to common threat of the West, and that by the late 90s/early 2000's the Soviets could have outsourced construction so smaller surface combatants like FFG's to Chinese shipbuilders in order to significantly increase their numbers. So I theorize that a joint shipbuilding program of Jiangkai's could have taken place bolstering the Soviet fleets in exchange for technology exchanges. Although in my WW3 scenario China will be neutral with passive support to the Soviets/Pact forces (overflight, intelligence sharing, etc).

The other big leap I'm making is that by 2008 the situation on the Central Front is sinficiantly different. West Germany is basically neutral at this point and although the IGB still exists and tensions are there, Bonn has shifted its policy towards East Germany. Without the collapse of the Soviets, German "reunification" would come at the cost of the practical destruction of the German people. So this follows similar green and peace movements in Europe starting from the 1970's and 80's but continues and amplifies it. So with a relatively quiet Central Front, the Soviets are able to divert more assets elsewhere and by 2008 shift more towards the Middle East.

Oh! I almost forgot Greece and Turkey which also dramactically impacts the balance of power... in my timeline I also make the assumption that the communists win the Greek Civil War with the assistance of Soviets, and the Greeks join the Pact. The Greek monarchists flee to Crete and establish a Mediterreanen Taiwan. So for Turkey, now geographically isolated from the West and with significant pressure from Stalin in the 1950's falls into the Soviet sphere of influence. They wouldn't join the WP or be a direct combatant but more of a Soviet client state relying on the USSR and NSWP nations for trade. The Eastern Med now becomes basically a Soviet bastion under the cover of the Black Sea Fleet and Soviet air. This also means direct access to the Middle East for the Soviets thru Turkey and Iraq bypassing a hostile Iran.

So bottom line is I took aspects from several different alternate histories in order to make the Soviet armed forces stronger in a realistic and plausible context, and give them a much strong position geopolitically. The goal here is to make scenarios for CMO that are MUCH harder for the NATO player, almost flipping the script from the typical Cold War scenarios regarding lines of communication, and away from the typical Pact Bashing scenarios that some 1980's themed ones turn into given NATO's technological superiority.

[kahta]

One of the common threads is the SDU/Nordic Alliance. So I guess our point of divergences are the same at or about 1949.

The Nordic Alliance in my world starts in 1989 because of continued aggressive actions by FAEZ. The OOB for Iceland is going to be essentially donated late-cold war equipment that was approaching obsolescence by 1990. I'm still working through some details on the Nordic Alliance related to the elevated energy prices of the 80s and it is not fully baked yet.

The other big leap I'm making is that by 2008 the situation on the Central Front is sinficiantly different. West Germany is basically neutral at this point and although the IGB still exists and tensions are there, Bonn has shifted its policy towards East Germany. Without the collapse of the Soviets, German "reunification" would come at the cost of the practical destruction of the German people. So this follows similar green and peace movements in Europe starting from the 1970's and 80's but continues and amplifies it.

I really like the spin on Germany becoming neutral, it also shifts focus out of an area CMO does not have a strength and can explain Denmark joining the Nordic Alliance without the fear of a ground invasion via Northern Germany. I am going to revisit my history based on aspects of the Kosygin timeline, that has a lot of really good information that I can use. THanks again for telling me about that.

So bottom line is I took aspects from several different alternate histories in order to make the Soviet armed forces stronger in a realistic and plausible context, and give them a much strong position geopolitically. The goal here is to make scenarios for CMO that are MUCH harder for the NATO player, almost flipping the script from the typical Cold War scenarios regarding lines of communication, and away from the typical Pact Bashing scenarios that some 1980's themed ones turn into given NATO's technological superiority.

I agree with challenges on researching what the Soviet military would have looked like; a lot of weapons that historically were deployed into the 2000s had begun development and testing as early as the late 80s. I've spent quite a bit of time (and probably ended up on a watchlist ) reading Russian translated websites and browsing Russian forums to find material and ensure that what I am suggesting is within the realm of plausibility. I also went down the rabbit hole of reading about personal experiences following the collapse of the USSR on the forums. I don't have them bookmarked, but it's incredible to read from a Western perspective.

Here are a few things that you might find helpful:

I've attached a savegame with several hypothetical Soviet ships that I made using hulls from other countries (so players can identify them as unique if fighting against the Soviets) as well as some modernized existing ships. Included is an English-translated book with information on many ships that were cancelled in the mid-late 1980s.

Lua code to add a 360 degree sensor to every unit with a certain dbid. This can be used to update EW aircraft particularly since the Soviets have pretty old equipment.

Code: Select all

local listOfGUIDsForAllUnitsOnSide = VP_GetSide({side='USSR'}).units
local typeOfUnitIAmInterestedIn = 'Ship'
local subtypeOfUnitIAmInterestedIn = '6000'
local dbidOfUnitIAmInterestedIn = 1051
local listOfUnitsIWantToWorkWith = {}


for k,v in ipairs (listOfGUIDsForAllUnitsOnSide) do
local unit = ScenEdit_GetUnit({guid=v.guid})
if unit.dbid == dbidOfUnitIAmInterestedIn then
table.insert(listOfUnitsIWantToWorkWith,unit)
--print ("'"..unit.guid.."', --"..unit.name.." ("..unit.classname..") added to list of units to work with..")
end

end

print ('List complete! '..#listOfUnitsIWantToWorkWith..' units added to list.')


local counter = 0
for k,v in ipairs (listOfUnitsIWantToWorkWith) do
local unit = ScenEdit_GetUnit({guid=v.guid})
--unit.AI_DeterminePrimaryTarget_enabled = false
--unit.AI_EvaluateTargets_enabled = false
--ScenEdit_DeleteUnit({guid=v.guid})
ScenEdit_UpdateUnit( { guid=unit.guid,mode='add_sensor',arc_detect={'360'},arc_track={'360'},dbid='5922'} )
--ScenEdit_AddWeaponToUnitMagazine( { guid=unit.guid, wpn_dbid=794, number=10, maxcap=10 } )
print (unit.name..' Changed')
counter = counter + 1
end
print ('Proficiency set for '..counter..' units.')

[ThunderCBR]

Great info and thanks for the file!!

I've been working a bit of research and with the help of ChatGPT been developing USN and Soviet naval OOB's for my 2008 timeline. Its still very much a work in progress but here is what I've got thus far:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

Major assumptions to develop those lists especially on the Soviet side. The biggest one is making the assumption of continued Soviet ship building funding post 1989 to maintain a consistent rate and modernization. I still need to look at the units in the sim to update them to 2008 standards with expected modifications to keep them relevant.

[kahta]

Great info and thanks for the file!!

I've been working a bit of research and with the help of ChatGPT been developing USN and Soviet naval OOB's for my 2008 timeline. Its still very much a work in progress but here is what I've got thus far:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

Major assumptions to develop those lists especially on the Soviet side. The biggest one is making the assumption of continued Soviet ship building funding post 1989 to maintain a consistent rate and modernization. I still need to look at the units in the sim to update them to 2008 standards with expected modifications to keep them relevant.

I am still working through my OOBs, so I am not ready to share yet.

Here are a few more sources that I have used:

Digital versions of The Military Balance by year (Translation required)
http://samlib.ru/editors/t/temezhnikow_ ... shtml#SU-2
http://samlib.ru/editors/t/temezhnikow_e_a/mb2000.shtml

This is The Mlitary Balance essentially converted into a database. The data integrity is not great, but helps a bit to understand historical production levels.
https://www.militarycapabilities.com/data

Fleet composition by year for all countries in the world.
http://www.theworldwars.net/navbase/navfleets.php

Soviet ship list
https://www.rjlee.org/shipind.html

United States ships decommissioned since 1980
https://www.hazegray.org/worldnav/usa/decom.htm