Paul vs Joel PBEM - Allied Player comments only

[Paul Vebber]

OK, I've played a bunch vs the AI and have a couple PBEMs in progress - Now I am facing a major challenge!

I don't know anything of Joel's play style, and am still trying to find the right balance between supply, research and combat units as the Allies.

Feel freee to kibitz, but please choose one thread or the other and don't post any spoilers.

My overall strategy as the Allies is "Germany First". Even if Japan can conquer China, they need to win substantial military victorys at sea to keep the economic might of the US at bay. By refusing decisive combat in the Pacific, I hope to get Japan to over extend and then once Europe (ie SU) is out of danger sweep out of Austrailia to retake the Southern Resource Area and strike North to the Home Islands. I've tried the "direct approach" striking direct to the Home islands, but is vulnerable to CA and SLOC interdiction from home island based subs. Coming up from Austrailia into the SRA, will I hope be an unexpected axis of attack, combined with a feint from HI, will take longer and require good logistics planning, but will hopefully allow a "hammer and anvil" strategy with my Heavy fleets and land based medium bombers moving north, while my CV and light fleets probe out of HI and try to get his striking forces to go after them, hoping to get a decisive naval battle. The more of his forces I can draw eastward, the less will be opposing my drive up from the South. HE does not have teh supply flexibility to shift forces between axes of attack like I will.

If Germany is successful in Russia, knocking them out of the war by the end of 42, They can turn on the British Isles and make a decent play for it. So my European goal is to focus on the Med at the expense of the NA. Germany is "on the timer" and any sort of disruption to the timetable is crucial to SU survival. Threatening Italy early can divert forces from SU that are sorely needed. I tried this in the 4-wa PBEM, but struck too early and while I was successful in tkaing the med, I did not have the logisitcs to maximize the threat, and left myself much more vulnerable than I had to in the NA.

The SU needs to just hang on for dear life and try to prevent their factories being overrun through 42. A strong counterattack in the first winter is crucial to this, and I am going to assume Joel is going to try to get moving as early as possible East to try to have extra time to take out the SU.

I've found a strategy that Japan can follow to take out CHina and there is not much the Chinese can do about it, but it leaves Japan very weak in the East. I'll play China by ear, but basically try to entice Joel to strike into the interior and use supplies fighting in China. Japan is in the sconomic hurt locker pretty much troughout the war, and must rely on outmaneuvering the WA. No idea what Joel will do here, but hope to offer him bait in multiple directions and make him tink he might be able to operate along multiple axes and over extend. HE will likely be too smart for that, but will leave him guessing as to my strategy as long as possible.

Anyway - I got Joels first turn, so AWAY WE GO!.

[Striker_002]

Seeing this made me register on the forums. All I can say is... it sounds like a big ripoff of the "Axis and Allies" "KGF" (Kill Germany First) strategy.

[a19999577]

Well, given that it was, in fact, what actually happened historically, it is only natural that it would also make sense in a computer representation of the war, whether it be something as rudimentary as Axis and Allies or as complex as Gary Grigsby's World at War.

I find your allegations of it being "a big ripoff" rather offensive and uninformed.

[Poliorcetes]

Hmmm, only 2 opponents, and apparantly your decision as to which one to go after first gives you a 50/50 chance of being a rip-off or wildly innovative. . .

[:D]

[Becket]

Poor Stryker, I think he meant ripoff as a compliment. [:)]

Restrain fists of death!

[Striker_002]

What I was referring to was in the board game axis and allies there is an often used strategy of kgf, kill germany first, and players will COMPLETELY IGNORE JAPAN and send everything at germany. I was just wondering if he may have got it from axis and allies, no complaints intended.

[Paul Vebber]

I took the commnet to be "was I ripping off the strategy" not that the game is somehow a ripoff...The anser is _ I think I played one game of Axis and Allies with my cousins about 20 years ago, so no my invoking of the "Germany First" name is a histrical ref, not an ref to A&A. The way Logistics works it and teh way teh US is Frozen" until 42 its not possible to just strip the Pacific early on in order to flood the Atlantic withthe Pacific Fleet.

i will post a more complete synopsis of my strategy for each country tonight. BUt it is not "ignore Japan" but more "fight to win" against german and "try to hold my ground and inflict max disruption" on the IJN.

[mavraam]

I've found a strategy that Japan can follow to take out CHina and there is not much the Chinese can do about it, but it leaves Japan very weak in the East.

Wow, that could really tip the balance of power. Japan can live with being weak in the East before the US gets involved, it sounds like it could be possible to leave a minimum garrison and shift everything back east in time to meet the US. That could suddenly make Japan a force to be reckoned with!

[Paul Vebber]

The trouble is it take until 42, so you lose the US handout, before you can reposition to take the SRA, and it requires huge expediture in militia on garrison duty that delay the second wave of IJN CVs...potentially beyound the point of usefullness. It also can cost you in air units - to tht point is questionable whether the payoff in Chinese indusrty can make up the cost, before its too late.

you need to get lucky - both in your ground attack against the Chinese, and in Chinese flak rolls against you...

[Barthheart]

Where's mah turn?!? [:D]

[Paul Vebber]

Since Joel has gotten way ahead of me posting as I flail with my laptop, I will try to get a quick post out to at least keep in the same year as he

SInce there is not a whole lot to do with anybody excpt the BRitisha dn Chinese I will group teh last few turns together by country. First the Heroes of Mother Russia.

Well, I've seen a number of Soviet strategies, From teh "build a hoarde of militia" - to build no militia, to a variaety of mixed strategies for building militia and aarmor or artillery. I'm going to try a really "mixed bag" approach - which generally is a bad idea, but in this case targetting specific unit types for research upgrades and building then "just in time". If Joel attacks early I may be royally screwed, but its very dificult for the Germans to take and secure a major opertion aginst eh MEd or NA and still have the resources to do Barbarossa early.

Russia get 26 PPs per turn, for 5 turns (assuming GE attacks in the Su41 turn. so you have 130 PPs to build an army to resist the Germans. Looking at the map and where the factories are, you have Kiev right in the German crosshairs, as well as Bylorussia, Leningrad and Kharkov in exploitation distance. Now I've seen the "build all the militia you can" - 10 in each location, but militia is realitively easy to kill and even fighters can take then out (defense of 12 I believe, not impossible on 3 dice for fighters and a pretty good bet withthe 5 dice of FBs. So a force of 10 militia can be hit by 5 planes and 4 tanks and be pretty much guarenteed to fall. Leningrad needs a 3 to 1, so it a bit more difficult there. So the German can pretty much take two of the three for sure, and can gamble to try to get all there. When I play the Germans I try to have 10 armor and 18 (8 fighters, 6 FBs, and 4 HBs) air that gives me 4 with 8 air to send to Lenigrad (I send a heavy fleet or two but they never seem to hit anything) and 3 with 5 air to send to each of the other 2 in exploitation. That pretty much guarentess gutting teh industrial heartland of the SU on the first turn (agaisnt the AI [:-]...).

Even if the SU gets "lucky" and blunts the initial onsluaght, the militia will be exterminated in two turns and then you are stuck with "bare bones" units that basically need lucky rolls to inflict damage to the 24 defense Germans with 6 dice (average DR of 21 and the Germans need only 16 to damage Rooskie troopers. SO I'm hoping have arty that has 18 defense and rols 7 dice will help and 18 defense AAA will be more resilient against 5 dice (average roll of 17.5) than 15 defense (and vitually immune to 3 dice fighters). ONce my infantry stocks start getting decimated, they have some research committed so hopefully I can have them improved by the Wi 42 turn for a counter attack.

So my counter strategy (which I botched somewhat by not payinfg close enough attention to exactly WHERE I was buying what...[:o][8|] was to mix AA and fighters in the "2nd factory belt" early and then add arty when I had researched improvements. to a base of about 5 or 6 militia - but focused on Kharkov and Leningrad. Bylorussia and Kiev will be surendered on the alter of research...the 20 PPs meaning Artillery, and AAA evasion and Arty land attack can be improved. I think if he has air at teh border he can see what I've got, but i'm hoping a little "error" is built into the FOW. I built AAA in the wrong cities anyone one turn...oh well! I will have 2 fighters and an AAA in Lenigrad - that should blunt 2 of his air, and could well mean the difference between 1 and 2 ground survivors and 3 tanks being insufficient to take it. SO unless he sends 5 tanks and the airborne to Lenigrad, or sends a buttload of air, I should be able to hold it with 6 militia, 3 inf, 1 arty, a flak and two fighters . Air will tend to get soaked off onto the arty, leaving him hopefully only 4 tanks and 4 air (2 or 3 at this point fighters) needing to all score hits. the way things are likely to shapeup, i think I can hold Leningrad,

Kharkov, if i had done things correctly, would have 1 fighter, 1 AAA, 1 arty and 4 militia. As it stands it will have 1 fighter, 1 inf and 7 militia. I boched this and meant to build another AAA and arty, but got it mixed up with Rostov one turn and I wasted its production on research... Oh well. This may turn out for the better. If he sends 4 tanks and 4 air in exploitation, he needs to score hits with all of them. If my fighter can damage an air unit, unless he sends the whole luftwaffe, or has another couple tanks hiding, I have at least a snowballs chace to hold it. his tanks with 9 dice are pretty much auto hits (on teh surprise turn my inf is only 12 defending) so it will come down to whether he has bombers or fighters in his exploitation air attacks - 5 dice for a 12 should fail at least 1 in 4 times. On 3 dice its better than 50-50. If he decides to go heavy to Kharkov, and Bylorussia and ignore Leningrad, then you are prety screwed no matter what. If you can delay the Germans until Fa41 I think you can hold kharkov, but its tough with 5 turns production.

SO my build strategy has been to spend about 30% on reasearch, 20% on supply (Its tough to keep LL open if the Germans contest it) and the rest on a balanced army.

Sp40 saw 7 on RPs, 4 on SP, and 2 tanks, 4 AAA, 3 inf, 5 militia and a fighter
Su40 saw 4 on RPs, 4 on SP, and 2 fighters, 1 inf and 5 militia.
Fa40 saw 12 on RPs 2 on SP, 1 fighter and 6 militia
Wi41 saw 12 on RPs (could bite me bad...), 2 on SP, 1 fighter and 6 militia
Sp41 saw 2 SPs 10 arty (my state of the art 18 def, 7 attack dice motor 122s!) , 4 tanks, 2 AAA and 7 militia

so of my 130 PPs I spent about 35 on research - this may be too much, but its allowed my to get better tanks and arty nad help my Flak survive), 14 on supply (perhaps too little, but we are going to save it for the Wi42 CA mostly) and 89 on gear.

29 militia, 10 arty, 6 tanks, 6 AAA, 5 fighters, and 4 inf. Note that some of teh buys were to get "multiples of 5" so I would be sure of getting my advancements in 3 turns (you need to limit the advancement number to 6). I botched it a littel, i should have invested in arty first, then tansk and would have been able to build my 10 arty LAST turn and have them the turn of the invasion, now it will be my turn AFTER teh invasion that I get them, so they will not be able to attack, i will be able to get them were I need them to defend the 2nd attack turn though, along with my gobs of militia.


Any way, I just got Joel's SP41 turn. Thankfully there was no surprise early invaison, Barbarossa is shaping up to have 4 armor heading north supported right now supported by only 1 FB abd two fighters. He has range 2 for his fighters so they can go after me in Lenigrad - but unless he has a major trick up his sleeve, I think I can hold Leningrad agaisnt 4 tanks, his fleet, and 1 FB. At best that is 6 hits, and I have 8 ground units, not enough to take a fortress (he needs 6 to take 2).

In the south he has 4 tanks and 2 FBs and 2 HBs, I will have only 7 defending units, but one fighter. He has 3 fighters, but some will have to be used against Kiev. IT looks GRIM, BUT I did build two milita in Bylorussia just to keep him honest and that means he has to send 2 units there (1 tank, 1 air OR 2 tanks) to ensure both are killed and the tank c n take it. So that leaves only 3 tanks and 3 bombers to go after my 7 units.... WEll see. i may hang on by the skin of my teeth. He could send a fighter to Bylorussia, but 3 dice for a 12 is a risky move!

I'll bring you up to date on China ([>:]) and the FREAKING UNBELIEVABLE LUCK Joel had agaisnt my fleet (rolls an 8 and 9 to hit my 8 (evasion lowered by air attack and his subs sinking my supply link) and I roll a stinking 15 aginst his 16. I lost three ships to NONE...

SO MANY freaking times you will see CRUCIAL battles like this decided by 1 either way on die rolls...

To the designers of this DASTARDLY TORTURE IMPLEMENT

Some sceenies to follow

[Paul Vebber]

Production Sequence

[Paul Vebber]

Su40

[Paul Vebber]

Fa40

[Paul Vebber]

Wi40

[Paul Vebber]

Sp41

[Paul Vebber]

Situation on the eve of Barbarossa. I have upgraded EV on my tanks, arty and AAA, and land attack of my tanks and arty.

[Becket]

Prediction: This is going to be ugly. Hard to tell what Joel has in the stacks there, but it looks like he's gunning for both Leningrad and Kharkov (great strategy, will unhinge you in the north and south - he can afford to concede the Belorussia factory if he pulls that off).

[Paul Vebber]

How much "slop" is there in the fog of war? I thought you pretty much knew what was in an adjacent area? He only has 4 armor and 1 FB in the North (that I can see) Even if there are a couple more planes around he will need at least 8 shots to have a cahcne to take Lenigrad this move. Right now it look slike he only has 5.

Is the FOW intel in adjacent spaces that bad?

[Becket]

I based my prediction on the 17 units in the territory. I could be completely wrong. And don't rule out an amphib invasion of Leningrad.