The World of "Orange Dawn"

[FDRLincoln]

In developing my Orange Dawn scenario, I intend to have a fully worked-out alternative history. I'm a bit busy with work right now and it will be a month before I can fully extrapolate this, but I want to lay out some of my ideas so you guys can see where I'm going with this.

Every alternative history has to have a divergent point from our own reality. The Orange Dawn world diverges from our own in the year 1893, June 22nd to be exact. On that day, British Vice Admiral Sir George Tryon does NOT give the fatal manuever order that results in the collision between HMS Victoria and HMS Camperdown. Tryon lives, and as a result his ideas have a much greater impact on British naval thought than they did in our reality, since his ideas about initiative, maneuver, and signalling are not discredited by the Victoria Incident. John Jellicoe, in particular, becomes more open to the concept of individual initiative from ship and squadron captains. As a result, his Grand Fleet Battle Orders during the Great War allow for more individual intiative and less central control.

The effect of this is felt during the Battle of Jutland. Scheer is unable to sneak away from the Grand Fleet during the night, as individual squadron commanders react with greater initiative in blocking his attempt to reach safety. A late night and early dawn action between the two battle fleets results. Although the British lose dreadnoughts Marlborough and Vanguard during the battle, in addition to their battlecruiser losses suffered in our reality, the High Seas Fleet is crushed in turn, losing six dreadnoughts as well as battlecruisers Seydlitz and Lutzow and crippling damage to many others. With Jutland a major tactical and strategic victory for the Grand Fleet, the British are able to tighten control of the North Sea, bombarding German ports, and conducting Jackie Fisher's Baltic Operation in early 1917, forcing the Germans to sue for peace. The Great War ends a year earlier than in our reality, with the decisive victory of Jutland firmly establishing the value and superiority of the dreadnought battleship in the eyes of naval experts. This helps retard the development of naval aviation in the early 1920s.

[FDRLincoln]

One result of Britain's Jutland losses is that all four Hood class battlecruisers are built, to maintain a margin of superiority and help replace the lost Marlborough and Vanguard in the order of battle.

[Terminus]

Sounds good... Alternate history stuff is always fun, and this is alternate history based on alternate history based on real history...[:D]

[FDRLincoln]

Battle of Jutland Capital Ship Losses, May 31-June 1, 1916 (Orange Dawn Universe)

Grand Fleet:
Battlecruisers: Queen Mary, Indefatigable, Invincible
Modern Battleships: Marlborough, Vanguard
Capital Ships Severely Damaged: Lion, Warspite, Barham, Malaya, St. Vincent
High Seas Fleet:
Battlecruisers: Lutzow, Seydlitz
Modern Battleships: Ostfriesland, Helgoland, Rhienland, Konig, Kaiser, Westfalen
Obsolete Battleships: Pommern, Hannover, Schleisen, Hessen
Capital Ships Severely Damaged: Moltke, Von Der Tann, Freedrich der Grosse, Oldenberg, Kaiserin, Markgraf

[Alikchi2]

I do like it - the point of departure was certainly not what I was expecting. Well thought-out!

A thought occurred to me (probably tangential to your scenario, but I'm throwing it out here). Historically the French spent 1.5 times as much money on their fleet as the Germans before the World War I. Much of that money went down the drain due to inefficiency and corruption in the Marine Nationale. What if that money was better spent?

[Alikchi2]

And ouch. The High Seas Fleet certainly got what it was asking for..

How is Beatty remembered in this timeline? Jellicoe certainly has a full-blooded victory to his name.

(I think that the focus on individual operations and flexibility is going to lead to another step towards the fast battleship.)

[FDRLincoln]

Beatty is remembered as talented and certainly possessing the Nelson touch, but also rather sloppy at times and not always paying enough attention to detail.

The main difference is that Jellicoe's clear victory meant there was less tension and recriminations between the two men in the 1920s. Or actually Beatty was less of a jerk in trying to harm Jellicoe's reputation.

As for the French, in this timeline the main change will be additional forces deployed to the far east in the runup to war in 1926. Also they may build the Normandies. I haven't thought that far ahead just yet.

[FDRLincoln]

Among other effects of the British victory at Jutland and the Baltic Operation of 1917 ending the war a year early:

Russia's Provisional Government does NOT collapse against the Bolsheviks in 1917. Civil War is avoided. Russia remains under a semi-democratic government, mildly pro-western, but economically extremely weak into the early 1920s.

The clearly decisive nature of naval power and dreadnought battleships in leading to allied victory serves as a massive endorsement of Mahanian naval theory. In the rundown after the Great War ends, the US, UK, France, and Japan all reduce their land armies fairly signficantly to save money, but all continue to build up their navies as an "insurance for security."

Nationalist hard-liners in Japan see how decisive naval power is and draw the appropriate lessons. It is apparent that building a successful Empire will require a big naval buildup, lending impetus to the 8-8 plan at the expense of the army. In this timeline, it is the Navy that becomes the main font of right-wing nationalist impulse in Japan.

The Washington Treaty negotations end in dismal failure in 1922, as the Japanese interpret US/UK attempts to set a 5/5/3 ratio as an attempt to "throttle Japan" politically and economically.

Naval aviation proceeds at a slower pace. Furious is not given a full 1920s style conversion. Argus and Hermes are built as in the regular timeline, but Eagle is completed as a battleship and sold back to Chile. The Americans and Japanese make due with Langley and Hosho and a few similar vessels, but the big battlecruiser hulls are built as battlecruisers. Aviation enthusiasts have to make due with budgetary scraps, thanks to the "lessons of Jutland."

[FDRLincoln]

Outline of my eventual essay on the "Orange Dawn" Scenario background.

1) General background of naval warfare, 1893-1917, how it differs from our own universe
2) Failure of arms limitation treaty negotiations, 1918-1922
3) Rise and influence of right-wing hard-core nationalists in Japan, 1918-1926
4) Stagnation of Naval Aviation and the Dominance of the Dreadnought
5) State of the Navies at the Outbreak of War, June 1926
5A) The Japanese Navy: War Plans, Ship Building Philosophy and Construction Programs
5B) The Royal Navy: War Plans, Ship Building Philosophy and Cosntruction Programs
5C) The United States Navy: War Plans, Ship Building Philosophy and Construction Programs
5D) Minor Navies, including French, Dutch, Chinese, etc.
6) Excerpts from Conway's All the World's Fighting Ships, 1918-1930 (note that this edition was not published in our universe, as it covers the Great Pacific War of 1926-1930).

This background will accompany the scenario itself.

[RedLancer]

FDR

Firstly may I presume that the premis of your timeline comes from having read the Rules of the Game ? I am interested in how you see things going at Jutland. Particularly with the losses of the BCs. If Tryon hadn't managed to sink himself as you propose and the RN had retained greater initiative then would Evan-Thomas have been left behind when Beattie turned South. From your results it would that he did because Beattie still loses two ships. If the 5BS had been up close then they should have made a real difference. Hipper gets hammered and possibly more importantly the British BCs are further proven despite their faults. I understand that Renown and Repulse were bought on the back of the Falklands success. What would have been designed after a Jutland where BCs were successful.

Anyway I think your premis is a good one - I was lucky enough to study under Andrew Gordon and his view is that the introduction of the QEs brought an end to the true BC anyway and all that followed were more akin to fast battleships than BCs.

JY

[FDRLincoln]

Rules of the Game is one of the very best books I've ever read about naval warfare, a brilliant combination of military and social history. And yes, it is the origin of this timeline and the Orange Dawn world.

Your point about Evan-Thomas taking a greater part in the Beatty/Hipper portion of Jutland is a good one. I need to work out exactly how the battle goes, but right now I have "real world" work that has to take precedence. But it's percolating in my subconcious.

I envy you studying under Gordon.

[KingMississippi]

So does the end of the war in 1917 mean a lesser Verseilles treaty and was America even in the war? IF she didnt enter than her ships would have a lesser experience rating since they would have stayed in their isolationist mode, plus there would be more antagonism between Britain France and USA as the US wont have saved their bacons in the Great War.

[FDRLincoln]

The combination of US entry in April 1917, and the successful British landings along the Baltic Coast in June 1917, force the Germans to the peace table that summer.

The early end to the war saves several hundred thousand lives and lessens (though certainly does not eliminate) the antagonism between the powers. The terms of the Versailles Treaty are still rather harsh but not nearly as bad as in our timeline and is not as insulting to German national honor. The German monarchy survives, although a demoralized Wilhelm abdicates the throne eventually. The monarchy eventually is forced to compromise to preserve its own existence, and the Reichstag gains more power, Germany evolving into a constitutional monarchy.

In the Orange Dawn world, the war ends quickly enough to preserve the pro-western Provisional Government in Russia and prevent the rise of the Bolsheviks. So in the world of Orange Dawn, neither the Communists nor the Nazis rise in Europe. But we still see the rise of hypernationalists in Japan.

[FDRLincoln]

One other point:

In the Orange Dawn universe, Lord Kitchener spends an extra 24 hours at Scapa Flow, to discuss the glorious victory of the British fleet with Admiral Jellicoe. As a result, Hampshire does not strike a mine on the way to Russia, and Kitchener does not drown. He goes to Russia, sees the difficult situation there, and returns home with a report to the War Cabinet about how serious the situation in Russia is politically, and that a way to end the war "must" be found within 18 months or that a revolution in Russia is possible. This helps drive the Baltic Operation plans forward, as a way to take pressure off the Russians. The spring revolution still occurs and Nicholas has to abdicate in favor of the provisional government, but the Allies have taken the Russian problem seriously much earlier than they did in real life.

[jwilkerson]

ORIGINAL: FDRLincoln

Outline of my eventual essay on the "Orange Dawn" Scenario background.

1) General background of naval warfare, 1893-1917, how it differs from our own universe
2) Failure of arms limitation treaty negotiations, 1918-1922
3) Rise and influence of right-wing hard-core nationalists in Japan, 1918-1926
4) Stagnation of Naval Aviation and the Dominance of the Dreadnought
5) State of the Navies at the Outbreak of War, June 1926
5A) The Japanese Navy: War Plans, Ship Building Philosophy and Construction Programs
5B) The Royal Navy: War Plans, Ship Building Philosophy and Cosntruction Programs
5C) The United States Navy: War Plans, Ship Building Philosophy and Construction Programs
5D) Minor Navies, including French, Dutch, Chinese, etc.
6) Excerpts from Conway's All the World's Fighting Ships, 1918-1930 (note that this edition was not published in our universe, as it covers the Great Pacific War of 1926-1930).

This background will accompany the scenario itself.

Consider tossing in $0.02 worth of economics - and the political problems created by heavy spending - remember the difficulties the Japanese and British were already in - these difficulties are what made them sign the Washington treaty in the first place. Assuming another building war resumes - this could actually be your premise for war. The Japanese are so "restless" due to the economic blunders of their rules, that the rulers are forced to start a war to divert attention ( a la Argentina/Falklands War ) ... would not necessarily happen until after a round of building was completed ... so maybe late 20s ...

[FDRLincoln]

Bumping this up....
 
I will try and flesh out this background more....and I will go with JWilkerson's idea that the trigger for the war is the fact that the naval arms race is so expensive that the Japanese Nationalist regime is forced to invade China to seize resources to maintain their building program...and to distract the public and maintain their hold on power.
 
I will be making large adjustments to make China both more playable for the allies and more worthwhile for the Japanese in terms of victory points to invade. Since WPO lacks the production factors of WitP, there needs to be some incentive for the Japanese to seize resources, reflecting the economic causes of the war.  

[FDRLincoln]

Also in this reality the US does not slip into isolationism....they continue their own naval buildup, including a base at Guam, and are much more forceful in protesting Japanese aggression in China. The game will begin with Japan at war against China and the US, but with GB, France, and Netherlands neutral....of course the Japanese can attack them too if they like.