Houston, we have an (economic) problem

[el cid again]

The economic model is fundamentally flawed:

Japan historically imported more than ten times as many resources per day as it did petroleum products,

but our model requires it import MORE oil than resources, on a reversed scale of 2:1 for heavy industry, although a few more resources are required by manpower centers, which does help compensate a bit.

In one test game Japan has 11,939 HI and 831 Manpower; that means it could theoretically expend 20,249 resource points per day. Yet it has only 7015 resource centers generating (x 1.25) 8768 or 8769 resource points - less than half of what it needs: except for the resource point pool it could not produce at all: over time it will fail to feed its industry. To the extent it invests in HI, it dies faster!

Japan would need 16,199 resource centers to feed this industry - but even with great expansion over CHS there are only 20,843 on the entire map - including Salt Lake City Utah - a place Japan is most unlikely to capture (never mind damage to the resources upon capture, capture of more industry to feed, or growth of industry at home).

I can make enough resources to fix the game production structure - but

1) I need about 3 times more oil to be historically correct;

2) I should need about 33 times more resources (that is, about 11 times more resources than oil), but if I made that many, players would not need them, and would not value them, as a tiny fraction of centers would suffice. This figure is conservative - it may be 36 or 39 is a closer multiple - and then only if you neglect a long list of resources. [I am using Perillo's list from The Japanese Merchant Marine in World War Two - and it is hardly exhaustive - Liddle Hart lists three times as many as "vital" to war production in WWII].

So the closest workaround is

1) Make the oil right

2) Make the resources (which are inadequate by not nearly by as much as they ought to be) be 2 or 3 times greater (but not 33 times greater).

[Mifune]

This indeed adds value to shipping. So when can we taste the work around?

[witpqs]

Sid,

Only part of the problem, but one thing I have noted: In stock and in CHS, Batavia (on Java) produces 100 oil. In RHS, none. So in stock and CHS there are 200 oil on Java (100 each Batavia and Soerabaja or whatever it's called), in RHS only the 100 at Soerabaja.

[Mike Scholl]

CID Another possibility to be considered. Is the INDUSTRY model correct? Does the production coming out when it's supplied match up to historical production? (Stockpiles were available for a number of months production before the SRA would hopefully "come online".)

Industrial production is a complicated process, and the designers "track record" for getting it right on the first try is pretty poor. I think if you are going to look into this process you need to broaden your look to include the factory potential as well as the resource usage. Is the problem that the Japanese have too little resources? Or too many factories? Or are the numbers right, but the size (either of the resource or the oil "points", or of the factories) is off? And how effecient ws the materials usage? For a time during the war, German Manufacturors were using 7 tons of aluminum for each 1 ton of air frame they produced.
Lots of factors involved here that need to be factored in. Leave one out, or get the representation wrong, and you could make things worse while trying to make them better.

[el cid again]

I have concluded the best model for this system is to increase resources by the same factor of 3.

The problem with that - it is not enough - is that we still have too many AKs. But the AO problem is solved. So we can simulate the "invisible" economy by reducing AK count - make the game more managable - and allow 100% simulation of the impact of shipping losses on the war economy. Not bad for a patch when we cannot get at code. I am estimating we need to reduce AKs by 4 to 8 times - but will start by cutting them in half - to see how well it works.

[el cid again]

CID Another possibility to be considered. Is the INDUSTRY model correct?

Yes and no.

No in terms of tons of resources required. Coal alone is 2/3 of the resources - and it comes from different places - so if we let it be oil - Japan can get it from NE Asia - and ignore the SRA.

Yes in terms of aircraft, vehicles, ships - armaments - a long list. It is a pretty good model - except at the resource input end - and too few kinds of supplies at the output end.

[el cid again]

Only part of the problem, but one thing I have noted: In stock and in CHS, Batavia (on Java) produces 100 oil. In RHS, none. So in stock and CHS there are 200 oil on Java (100 each Batavia and Soerabaja or whatever it's called), in RHS only the 100 at Soerabaja.

Neither in person nor in my economic atlas do I see oil wells at Batavia. But note I have MORE oil wells on Borneo. Where they ARE in my atlas.

[Mifune]

Out of curiousity, could Batavia have been listed due to collection or processing facilities for oil, rather than wells?

[el cid again]

Out of curiousity, could Batavia have been listed due to collection or processing facilities for oil, rather than wells?

I suppose so. Since we HAVE oil processing facilities (we call them Heavy Industry) I am not sure why do it that way? But - yeah - that is my first guess. For some reason they didn't want Dutch HI points in numbers there - maybe so they could not be captured? After all - HI is so simple it can be anything you like - even battleships! The too simple economic system may have encouraged strange rationalizations like that.

[Bombur]

el cid, how was your solution to the trouble in RHS? I was doing some analysis in the economic model (using Nik mod) and realized that Japan isn´t able to keep more than 40% of HI working EVEN if it makes all the historical conquests avoiding any damage to oil centers. The big trouble seems to be oil, as you notice, resource shortage is less serious, it probably helps to explain why a Japanese players usually is unable to reach 1945 in the stock scenario.

[el cid again]

The basic problem is that there is not enough food for the HI. There should be at least 3 times more points. So I tripled the oil points - helping give tankers a job - and IF you capture and move the oil in RHS - no problem.

Now resources are different but similar. There are more in CHS - but still not enough. After tripling them (to match oil)
I found it was still not enough. I also found by study that the real totals are a great deal higher - at least an order of magnitude (depending on what counts) - maybe 30 times more. So I increased them a bit again (essentially resource centers should be 10 times more - but EDIT NOT always at the same point). The model will not use all the resources, so I pretend to use twice as much - taking out half the AKs to move the other half. That means we are at 20x the resources - midway between the 10x and 30x that is probably right (there are uncertainties about what counts). This is working better than I had hoped it might. May be no tweeking is needed.

[Nemo121]

So, we now have a trippling of available oil and a greater than tripling of resources available, is that correct?

[el cid again]

Tripling of oil, approximately 10x resources - but resources at points missing is part of that. Thus the largest copper mine in Asia - not in CHS - is in RHS. Vast mine assets on Noumea were not in CHS on purpose - Andrwe has good reasons because his resource centers make supply points. We are different - we can eat the supplies - so we can also put in the real values for the resources. But we erased most "secret supply" and we made you pay for the rest (taking ships to move it to Melbourne for example). And we gave you fish (and other things) at a few places as tiny numbers of pure supply points (except Kodiak where they are not tiny - because they are not tiny - but no resources). We also gave you fuel storage - and if the fields are not big enough - we simulate them anyway.

More than that, we assume TWICE as much tonnage is needed for resources - and we let the half in the game be a model for the total. Cut out half his resource points, you reduce his production by half - just right.

[herwin]

ORIGINAL: el cid again

CID Another possibility to be considered. Is the INDUSTRY model correct?

Yes and no.

No in terms of tons of resources required. Coal alone is 2/3 of the resources - and it comes from different places - so if we let it be oil - Japan can get it from NE Asia - and ignore the SRA.

Yes in terms of aircraft, vehicles, ships - armaments - a long list. It is a pretty good model - except at the resource input end - and too few kinds of supplies at the output end.

The real issue is that the economy (civilian plus military) was dependent on a number of resources from different places, and those resources were substitutable but only to some extent. Coal came from Northern China (and was the reason why Japan was there), and could be used to produce steel (mostly used in shipbuilding), power, fuel, and ammunition. (Toluene is the real constraint on ammunition and high test gasolene, and can be produced by coal gasification and cracking petroleum.) Iron ore came from a number of areas, including the mainland and the NEI. Tin and rubber came from the SRA, as did aluminum ore. Food came mostly from China. Petroleum came from the NEI and Burma. And so on. Modelling that is probably well beyond the capacity of your typical game company.

[RETIRED]

ORIGINAL: el cid again

Tripling of oil, approximately 10x resources - but resources at points missing is part of that. Thus the largest copper mine in Asia - not in CHS - is in RHS. Vast mine assets on Noumea were not in CHS on purpose - Andrwe has good reasons because his resource centers make supply points. We are different - we can eat the supplies - so we can also put in the real values for the resources. But we erased most "secret supply" and we made you pay for the rest (taking ships to move it to Melbourne for example). And we gave you fish (and other things) at a few places as tiny numbers of pure supply points (except Kodiak where they are not tiny - because they are not tiny - but no resources). We also gave you fuel storage - and if the fields are not big enough - we simulate them anyway.

More than that, we assume TWICE as much tonnage is needed for resources - and we let the half in the game be a model for the total. Cut out half his resource points, you reduce his production by half - just right.

CID All this is interesting, and you've certainly put in a lot of effort on it. Now that I have some time I may have to give RHS a try. But I do have one question. Given the number of things in the original game that 2x3 seems to have "pulled out of thin air" are you certain that the HI totals are correct? All your work seems to have been aimed at getting the "inputs" to match the needs of the HI with some sort of balance. But have you checked the possibility that the HI total might have been too high in the first place? Just wondering..., and forgive me if it's been discussed. Ive been out of touch for about 3 months with retirement and moving. Got back to the Midwest just in time to "enjoy" the heat wave.

Mike Scholl - now RETIRED.

[el cid again]

Andrew thinks there is too much HI. I think there is too little - and have added some in places where it clearly is present but not in CHS or stock. My HI is actually bigger slightly - due to adding it - particularly in cities we added.

Remember - I compared resources not only with needs but with real world lists. I used Parillo mostly - and Liddle Hart as a backup - to get the lists of what materials are needed for a war economy. I used the Oxford Economic Atlas and similar materials in certain industries - and Parillo again - to measure the amount of production of resources and oil. So when I say there is not enough - I mean compared to real life - not just to the needs of HI.

HI is harder to measure. What is it? I bet it is abstract. But one thing I thing must be in there is steel. And steel is the second most critical material in both Japan and the USA - after oil. Steel is hard to change - you cannot quickly change the industry that makes it or the amount of iron ore and coke you feed it. Steel has many applications - a single battleship could be 15 transports - 150 escorts - 1500 tanks - and framing for a lot of factory floor space or rails for a long railroad. And other things. But the same steel can only be used for one thing - not all of them.

I have a model of my own - one I suggested to Matrix in UV days - and now there seems to be more interest in it.
You may see a different supply model soon - one with fuel, ammo and general supplies. That is my system. [Then fuel includes all fuels - not just ship] Similarly, there may soon be more "resources" than just resources. We may have iron ore and coal and copper and aluminum and rubber - things like that. That is my system too. But even now I can compare data - and I have some sense of what HI might mean if it was properly defined. It is all the steel mills, copper and aluminum smelters, gold and other refineries, oil refineries, and a fair list of other things - in a hex. It is measured in terms of product output in tons - and by that standard the game is HI light - but not badly so. I figure a bit of the output goes to things we don't simulate - so slightly light is OK.

[Nicholas Bell]

   El Cid- If you have a decent library around check out a world almanac from the early 1940s.  I have a 1942 edition (events of 1941) at home and it often lists exports in tons, bbl, etc by country.  Most in my addition cite 1938 figures as the latest complete, but close enough.  Even just looking at important ores, steel ingots, etc exported, some countries should have 4-5000 RPs or more.  Tripling as you mention isn't enough to

Also for example, IIRC Palembang produced over 5.5 million tons of oil annually - over 15,000 oil resource points daily. 

Even if only a fraction of the resources available in peacetime were available to Imperial Japan, there was more than enough in the SRA to satisfy their needs.  They calculated that too.  They even had the ship bottoms to carry it, but they were so inefficient in their shipping that they never managed to move it all.  Of course, you already know that.

[RETIRED]

ORIGINAL: Nicholas Bell

   El Cid- If you have a decent library around check out a world almanac from the early 1940s.  I have a 1942 edition (events of 1941) at home and it often lists exports in tons, bbl, etc by country.  Most in my addition cite 1938 figures as the latest complete, but close enough.  Even just looking at important ores, steel ingots, etc exported, some countries should have 4-5000 RPs or more.  Tripling as you mention isn't enough to

Also for example, IIRC Palembang produced over 5.5 million tons of oil annually - over 15,000 oil resource points daily. 

Even if only a fraction of the resources available in peacetime were available to Imperial Japan, there was more than enough in the SRA to satisfy their needs.  They calculated that too.  They even had the ship bottoms to carry it, but they were so inefficient in their shipping that they never managed to move it all.  Of course, you already know that.

What ratio of "Crude oil" to "oil pts" have you estaplished? And how much iron ore or bauxite or raw rubber equals a "resource point"? Are you sure you have these ratios correct? When you get all these items to all those HI's, just how much are the Japanese going to be able to produce? Somebody needs to check all these numbers against real Japanese production and find out if they even come close to "ringing true". The Japanese economy as a whole was just not that potent in WW II. They started converting the Army to a new rifle calibre (7.7 from 6.5) in the mid-30's and still hadn't come close to achieving that by war's end. They never did issue a decent sub-machinegun, and their AAA never advanced much past mid 1930's tech. The could try to "keep up" in a few select areas of military tech and equipment, but to do so they lagged even farther behind in others. Please don't get carried away with the "numbers game" to the point where you turn Japan of the 1940's into Japan the economic powerhouse of the 1980's.

[el cid again]

ORIGINAL: Nicholas Bell

   El Cid- If you have a decent library around check out a world almanac from the early 1940s.  I have a 1942 edition (events of 1941) at home and it often lists exports in tons, bbl, etc by country.  Most in my addition cite 1938 figures as the latest complete, but close enough.  Even just looking at important ores, steel ingots, etc exported, some countries should have 4-5000 RPs or more.  Tripling as you mention isn't enough to

Also for example, IIRC Palembang produced over 5.5 million tons of oil annually - over 15,000 oil resource points daily. 

Even if only a fraction of the resources available in peacetime were available to Imperial Japan, there was more than enough in the SRA to satisfy their needs.  They calculated that too.  They even had the ship bottoms to carry it, but they were so inefficient in their shipping that they never managed to move it all.  Of course, you already know that.

You, Parillo and I agee - there were more than enough resources and oil.
But if you get technical - do not confuse WITP "oil" with real 'oil." Oil is crude oil - and fuel is more or less "fuel oil" - but in DEI you could burn oil from the wells in a ship. So our oil centers - which may make both oil and fuel - are producing about 2.5 times as much as it may appear. Yes - wartime data is classified or not even gathered - so 138 is the best complete set. It is listed in Oxford atlases until 2nd edition level - and many other places - including a nice 1939 Encyclopedia Britannica.

[el cid again]

ORIGINAL: RETIRED

ORIGINAL: Nicholas Bell

   El Cid- If you have a decent library around check out a world almanac from the early 1940s.  I have a 1942 edition (events of 1941) at home and it often lists exports in tons, bbl, etc by country.  Most in my addition cite 1938 figures as the latest complete, but close enough.  Even just looking at important ores, steel ingots, etc exported, some countries should have 4-5000 RPs or more.  Tripling as you mention isn't enough to

Also for example, IIRC Palembang produced over 5.5 million tons of oil annually - over 15,000 oil resource points daily. 

Even if only a fraction of the resources available in peacetime were available to Imperial Japan, there was more than enough in the SRA to satisfy their needs.  They calculated that too.  They even had the ship bottoms to carry it, but they were so inefficient in their shipping that they never managed to move it all.  Of course, you already know that.

What ratio of "Crude oil" to "oil pts" have you estaplished? And how much iron ore or bauxite or raw rubber equals a "resource point"? Are you sure you have these ratios correct? When you get all these items to all those HI's, just how much are the Japanese going to be able to produce? Somebody needs to check all these numbers against real Japanese production and find out if they even come close to "ringing true". The Japanese economy as a whole was just not that potent in WW II. They started converting the Army to a new rifle calibre (7.7 from 6.5) in the mid-30's and still hadn't come close to achieving that by war's end. They never did issue a decent sub-machinegun, and their AAA never advanced much past mid 1930's tech. The could try to "keep up" in a few select areas of military tech and equipment, but to do so they lagged even farther behind in others. Please don't get carried away with the "numbers game" to the point where you turn Japan of the 1940's into Japan the economic powerhouse of the 1980's.

Actually Joe, Andrew and I did a bit of a preliminary on this. Time prevented them from going with it - but we figured out some things.

Everything is - or must be converted to - tons. ship cargo is in tons.
Nothing else will work. That from Joe - a programmer.

We do have good data from USSBS and Parillo (The Japanese Merchant Marine and World War II - or close to that). USSBS is now unclassified in whole. I also have other materials - about 35,000 pages of it.

Japan is about 10% the size of the US economy. It is not bad - and was more efficient than Germany - and most of what went wrong was bad decision making.