A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

[Curtis Lemay]

warspite1

These numbers make no sense.

Only if you flunked math:

Historically, the Philipines operation had 541 aircraft assigned, including 156 Bettys and Nells and 107 Zeros.

156 - 48 = 108
107 - 32 = 75

warspite1

Ever heard of the difference between actual numbers and operational aircraft?

Why would aircraft be non-operational on the first day of a war?

[Curtis Lemay]

Does anyone know what is supposed to happen to KB's attack if the APDs have to abort their landing on Maui? Does KB still go ahead? We really need an index.

That would only happen if Maui was under alert. In that case, you could bet that Oahu was under alert. So, as I've stated before, that would be a benefit of the plan: The raid would be aborted by the pathfinders and not run into an alerted Pearl. Could never have happened under the historical plan.

[warspite1]

Only if you flunked math:

Historically, the Philipines operation had 541 aircraft assigned, including 156 Bettys and Nells and 107 Zeros.

156 - 48 = 108
107 - 32 = 75

warspite1

Ever heard of the difference between actual numbers and operational aircraft?

Why would aircraft be non-operational on the first day of a war?

warspite1

Erm..... absolutely no reason at all. I suspect they had 541 aircraft of which 758 were fully operational. I believe they were serviced by pathfinders.....

Seriously Curtis Lemay that was yet another truly alarming question.

[Curtis Lemay]

There would be a point beyond which the raid couldn't be cancelled. Before the Betty's reached the point of no return, for example.

He also told KingHart, I believe, that the raid could be cancelled an hour before it was due to start - but don't quote me on that one.

I said the ultimatum could be canceled that late. Not the raid.

[Curtis Lemay]

Love how this plan takes the Japanese approach to logistics. It will work itself out.

Take Maui. Take Midway. How are they going to supply either, let alone hold it?

Their merchant marine couldn't do it. Tokyo Express style runs won't do it.

Why is Midway more difficult to supply than Wake? There will just be a single battalion left on it with some sort of air unit. How is that impossible to supply?

Maui gets enough supply for a month right at the start. Once Pearl and the oil is torched, maui can be evacuated. (Although it may prove more benefical to force the US to get it back the hard way.)

[warspite1]

There would be a point beyond which the raid couldn't be cancelled. Before the Betty's reached the point of no return, for example.

He also told KingHart, I believe, that the raid could be cancelled an hour before it was due to start - but don't quote me on that one.

I said the ultimatum could be canceled that late. Not the raid.

warspite1

Can I ask you to at least show some willing here.

How about you put together a simple timetable so its available to all. At this stage only the Eastern Pacific is required and of course needs to show timings for the Bettys, the Maui invasion, the Pearl raids and Midway. Within this needs to be added your idea for the latest timings for cancellation of each leg of the wider campaign.

Can you do that please?

[Curtis Lemay]

You appear to be getting rattled. That’s two craps, a blather and a nonsense I believe in the last few pages. I have explained why SOP would be different in war and peace - and the fact you need this explained is somewhat alarming.

No you have not! I remain waiting for a reason why it's OK for a carrier to enter port with unusable planes in wartime but not in peacetime.

And I am not going to rise to your rather tedious goading over what the definition of a data point is. A data point can be the most pertinent evidence we have for something happening. It may or may not be a factual event, it may be a set of standing orders, it may be reliant upon someone’s past performance. The point is whatever it is, we use the best we have in a counterfactual. The strength of the data point will depend on what it is and what (if its not an historical happening) evidence there is that it wouldn’t have happened.

In the case we have action in wartime - useless as a data point in time of peace, and SOP in time of peace - which is pertinent to this scenario.

A data point regarding carrier policy on aircraft onboard or not is only one thing and one thing only: A carrier sailing into a port!!! Nothing else is a data point on that issue.

[Curtis Lemay]

warspite1

Ever heard of the difference between actual numbers and operational aircraft?

Why would aircraft be non-operational on the first day of a war?

warspite1

Erm..... absolutely no reason at all. I suspect they had 541 aircraft of which 758 were fully operational. I believe they were serviced by pathfinders.....

Seriously Curtis Lemay that was yet another truly alarming question.

I'll ask again: Why would aircraft be non-operational on the first day of the war? Especially when the agressors know the war is just about to begin.

[RangerJoe]

I've got a critical factor to be covered. What's going to stop the Bettys and Zeros being shot down by ship-board AA as they attempt to make their landing run on Puunene. There were multiple ships with 3" and 5" AA batteries off Maui when the PH strike began. More ships arrived there that morning. So when exactly are these Betty's first coming in to land at Ninja Field?

Again, the US is going to immediately tumble to every detail of the Jap plan like it was mid-war. The Japanese have strategic and tactical surprise on their side. And the Airfield is about 3 miles from shore.

warspite1

What shore???? What are the tides like, what is the shoreline made up of, what is the terrain to be negotiated? Where is the port? You can’t predict anything because you don’t have the answers to anything.

I even posted topographical maps with links and a picture of the one landing strip available.

[warspite1]

Love how this plan takes the Japanese approach to logistics. It will work itself out.

Take Maui. Take Midway. How are they going to supply either, let alone hold it?

Their merchant marine couldn't do it. Tokyo Express style runs won't do it.

Why is Midway more difficult to supply than Wake? There will just be a single battalion left on it with some sort of air unit. How is that impossible to supply?

Maui gets enough supply for a month right at the start. Once Pearl and the oil is torched, maui can be evacuated. (Although it may prove more benefical to force the US to get it back the hard way.

warspite1

Have a read of Shattered Sword. This will show the IJN’s own concerns over Midway as an outpost and their inability to supply it and defend it. The Japanese didn’t have the tankers for one thing.

At the moment I can’t see how Maui happens - there is still no viable plan for the proposed landing let alone setting up an airbase to reduce Oahu.

[Curtis Lemay]

All of that will be figured out by the pathfinders. They have months to prep. Again, Maui is a backwater of a nation at peace on a weekend at night.

warspite1

These miracle pathfinders that didn’t exist can do what they want - no one cares. You are putting foward a plan that you have absolutely no clue as to whether its even feasible. For all you know, had they existed, the pathfinders could have reported back:

- soz Yamamoto, there is no landing zone that meets your requirements anywhere near your airfield. Your timetable just wouldn’t work and there is little chance with this terrain of getting your magic 50 to the airfield. And as for the nearest port.....Best call it off.

There is as much chance of that being the feedback as anything else.

So what? If that truely were the case, the Maui part of the operation would be aborted. One more advantage of the pathfinders!! But if there is a way - and Maui is a huge island, so there is bound to be a way - it will go forward.

[RangerJoe]

This back and forth reminds me of....

https://youtu.be/ohDB5gbtaEQ

Could you imagine peacetime SOP during a war? I mean, going to the field with no ammo for the rifles, machine guns, and quite possibly no main gun rounds? No missiles and other toys for those not encased in steel? Also, someone does not understand PMCS and why something would be broke down, aka deadlined, during peacetime! I mean, could you imagine a comedian stating that during a USO tour? Oh, the funny!

[warspite1]

You appear to be getting rattled. That’s two craps, a blather and a nonsense I believe in the last few pages. I have explained why SOP would be different in war and peace - and the fact you need this explained is somewhat alarming.

No you have not! I remain waiting for a reason why it's OK for a carrier to enter port with unusable planes in wartime but not in peacetime.

And I am not going to rise to your rather tedious goading over what the definition of a data point is. A data point can be the most pertinent evidence we have for something happening. It may or may not be a factual event, it may be a set of standing orders, it may be reliant upon someone’s past performance. The point is whatever it is, we use the best we have in a counterfactual. The strength of the data point will depend on what it is and what (if its not an historical happening) evidence there is that it wouldn’t have happened.

In the case we have action in wartime - useless as a data point in time of peace, and SOP in time of peace - which is pertinent to this scenario.

A data point regarding carrier policy on aircraft onboard or not is only one thing and one thing only: A carrier sailing into a port!!! Nothing else is a data point on that issue.

warspite1

Sorry but you are letting yourself down here. You don’t think that in desperate times of war, practices that are mandated in peace, are not always followed if the situation requires it? You don’t see that the very nature of war creates its own rules? The US was plunged into war, Enterprise was needed back out there as quickly as possible.

By the way, we have the most pertinent data point - we have SOP.

[Curtis Lemay]

Have a read of Shattered Sword. This will show the IJN’s own concerns over Midway as an outpost and their inability to supply it and defend it. The Japanese didn’t have the tankers for one thing.

Yet they did try for it. They don't need tankers. Fuel can be delivered by cargo ships in drums.

[warspite1]

All of that will be figured out by the pathfinders. They have months to prep. Again, Maui is a backwater of a nation at peace on a weekend at night.

warspite1

These miracle pathfinders that didn’t exist can do what they want - no one cares. You are putting foward a plan that you have absolutely no clue as to whether its even feasible. For all you know, had they existed, the pathfinders could have reported back:

- soz Yamamoto, there is no landing zone that meets your requirements anywhere near your airfield. Your timetable just wouldn’t work and there is little chance with this terrain of getting your magic 50 to the airfield. And as for the nearest port.....Best call it off.

There is as much chance of that being the feedback as anything else.

So what? If that truely were the case, the Maui part of the operation would be aborted. One more advantage of the pathfinders!! But if there is a way - and Maui is a huge island, so there is bound to be a way - it will go forward.

warspite1

So what? Well the so what is that you don’t have a plan. Your no-brainer operation never gets off the ground and you’ve spent the last 30 pages arguing about nothing - as a number of people have been patiently trying to tell you.

[Curtis Lemay]

Sorry but you are letting yourself down here. You don’t think that in desperate times of war, practices that are mandated in peace, are not always followed if the situation requires it? You don’t see that the very nature of war creates its own rules? The US was plunged into war, Enterprise was needed back out there as quickly as possible.

By the way, we have the most pertinent data point - we have SOP.

I'm still patiently waiting for anyone to profer a reason why the "SOP" would apply in peacetime but not in wartime. Still waiting. Still waiting. Still waiting. Still waiting.

And the SOP is NOT a data point on this issue.

[Curtis Lemay]

warspite1

These miracle pathfinders that didn’t exist can do what they want - no one cares. You are putting foward a plan that you have absolutely no clue as to whether its even feasible. For all you know, had they existed, the pathfinders could have reported back:

- soz Yamamoto, there is no landing zone that meets your requirements anywhere near your airfield. Your timetable just wouldn’t work and there is little chance with this terrain of getting your magic 50 to the airfield. And as for the nearest port.....Best call it off.

There is as much chance of that being the feedback as anything else.

So what? If that truely were the case, the Maui part of the operation would be aborted. One more advantage of the pathfinders!! But if there is a way - and Maui is a huge island, so there is bound to be a way - it will go forward.

warspite1

So what? Well the so what is that you don’t have a plan. Your no-brainer operation never gets off the ground and you’ve spent the last 30 pages arguing about nothing - as a number of people have been patiently trying to tell you.

Only if the pathfinders make the absurd report above.

[warspite1]

Have a read of Shattered Sword. This will show the IJN’s own concerns over Midway as an outpost and their inability to supply it and defend it. The Japanese didn’t have the tankers for one thing.

Yet they did try for it. They don't need tankers. Fuel can be delivered by cargo ships in drums.

warspite1

They bent to the childish threats of Yamamoto to resign every five minutes. Plus of course the Doolittle Raid had the greatest effect.

Just because oil is carried in drums doesn’t make the destroyers (the carriers of the drums) impregnable to aircraft and submarines - ask the Italians.

Plus how do the destroyers have enough fuel for the trip to Midway..... and they have to get back again if they survive. Just imagine how much effort and resource is required to keep an insignificant outpost in play.....

[warspite1]

Sorry but you are letting yourself down here. You don’t think that in desperate times of war, practices that are mandated in peace, are not always followed if the situation requires it? You don’t see that the very nature of war creates its own rules? The US was plunged into war, Enterprise was needed back out there as quickly as possible.

By the way, we have the most pertinent data point - we have SOP.

I'm still patiently waiting for anyone to profer a reason why the "SOP" would apply in peacetime but not in wartime. Still waiting. Still waiting. Still waiting. Still waiting.

And the SOP is NOT a data point on this issue.

warspite1

LOL be honest, did you stamp your feet when you wrote that?

You’ve been told why. You also have your data point - its SOP - and that is that.

[warspite1]

So what? If that truely were the case, the Maui part of the operation would be aborted. One more advantage of the pathfinders!! But if there is a way - and Maui is a huge island, so there is bound to be a way - it will go forward.

warspite1

So what? Well the so what is that you don’t have a plan. Your no-brainer operation never gets off the ground and you’ve spent the last 30 pages arguing about nothing - as a number of people have been patiently trying to tell you.

Only if the pathfinders make the absurd report above.

warspite1

Why would reporting on the geography, the tides, the terrain etc of Maui necessarily be an absurd report. I hope you are not suggesting the Pathfinders are absurd!!