Lunacy In The Pacific Mogami Vs. Tom Hunter

[jrlans]

Ouch, anychance for follow up air raides? I hate to take that much damage and not be able to return the favor. These battles kinda remind me of the battle of leete. In that the american Cvs have retired and the transports are left open and vounerable

[Tom Hunter]

This picture pretty much says it all, with luck Santa Claus will be giving the Royal Navy a major victory for Christmas, I just hope Mogami does not get cold feet.

[DFalcon]

I can't wait to see how this battle turns out.

Great game!

[Tom Hunter]

Well, maybe not so great a game, maybe actually a very badly broken game.

Today Mogami sent a force of 3 CAs 2 CLs and 8 DDs against a total of 7 BBs, 2 CAs, 7CLs, 14 DDs and 12 PT boats. He hands down won.

The Japanese scored mutlipe torpedo hits over 7 or more rounds of combat with 3 different TFs, the Allies scored on torpedo hit and 2 heavy shell hits.

They did score a number of lighter calber hits that slowed the Japanese DDs and the 2 heavy caliber shell hits slowed the Atago, Atago and 4 DDs were sunk by Allied aircraft the next day.

On the Allied side Resolution is at 84 float and a number of other ships are badly damaged. All the British ships and the Oklahoma had hand picked captains and the best leaders the Brits have to offer.

I have a number of explainations for this result:

One is that (as discussed on a different thread) ammo and rates of fire are a mess.

2 is that manuever works as armor (makes a ship harder to hit) in this game, but that does not happen in gunnery battles because ships need to steer in straight lines to shoot accurately. This gives a huge bonus to the CAs and CLs which are much more difficult to hit than the BBs.

3 The combat system models big guns wrong, they don't hit often enough. By WWII radar directed guns were hitting with 10% or more of thier shells, which is one hit per salvo for most BBs most of the time.

Finally the Japanese have access to 90 Naval Skill leaders, the British have access to 60 Naval Skill leaders. Considering that the Japanese were trained by the British this is really odd. It certainly helped screw me.

Of course strategically I won, the Japanese did not sink any transports and my CVs murdered half of Mogami's TF the next day. But I am still appalled at how bad the naval combat system really is.

Here are the results:

Night Time Surface Combat, near Sorong at 42,74 Somerville was suprised on round 1 of this combat.

Japanese Ships
CA Atago
CA Haguro, Shell hits 2
CA Nachi, Shell hits 3
CL Naka
CL Nagara, Shell hits 3, on fire
DD Teruzuki, Shell hits 3, on fire
DD Yugumo
DD Kagero, Shell hits 1
DD Kuroshio, Shell hits 1
DD Hatsukaze
DD Natsushio, Shell hits 5
DD Hayashio, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD Asagumo, Shell hits 1, on fire

Allied Ships
BB Warspite
BB Revenge, Shell hits 6
BB Ramilles, Shell hits 5
BB Resolution, Shell hits 12, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
CA Exeter, Shell hits 1
CL Leander, Shell hits 4
CL Achilles, Shell hits 2
CL Newcastle, Shell hits 9, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
DD Voyager, Shell hits 3
DD Vampire, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD Vendetta
DD Le Triomphant
DD Isis, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Jupiter, Shell hits 1
DD Norman

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Sorong at 42,74 Niether side was suprised

Japanese Ships
CA Atago, Shell hits 2, on fire
CA Haguro, Shell hits 2
CA Nachi
CL Naka
CL Nagara, on fire
DD Teruzuki, Shell hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
DD Yugumo, Shell hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
DD Kagero
DD Kuroshio
DD Hatsukaze
DD Natsushio
DD Hayashio, on fire
DD Asagumo, on fire

Allied Ships
BB Warspite, Shell hits 1
BB Revenge, Shell hits 1
BB Ramilles
BB Resolution, on fire, heavy damage
CA Exeter
CL Leander
CL Achilles, Shell hits 1
CL Newcastle, on fire, heavy damage
DD Voyager
DD Vampire, on fire
DD Vendetta
DD Le Triomphant
DD Isis, on fire
DD Jupiter
DD Norman, Shell hits 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Sorong at 42,74 Niether side was suprised

Japanese Ships
CA Atago, Shell hits 1, on fire
CA Haguro
CA Nachi, Shell hits 4, on fire
CL Naka
CL Nagara, on fire
DD Teruzuki, Shell hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
DD Yugumo, Shell hits 5, on fire, heavy damage
DD Kagero
DD Kuroshio, Shell hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
DD Hatsukaze, Shell hits 1
DD Natsushio, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD Hayashio, Shell hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
DD Asagumo, on fire

Allied Ships
BB Prince of Wales, Shell hits 1 Hit one Japanese ship once in 2-3 rounds with a 14"
BC Repulse, Shell hits 2 No hits at all with the main battery
CA Cornwall
CL Dauntless, Shell hits 1
CL Mauritius
CL Birmingham
CL Glasgow
DD Arrow
DD Electra
DD Fortune
DD Hotspur, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD Pakenham
DD Paladin
DD Panther, Shell hits 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Sorong at 42,74 Niether side was suprised

Japanese Ships
CA Atago, Shell hits 3, on fire
CA Haguro
CA Nachi, Shell hits 2, on fire
CL Naka, Shell hits 1
CL Nagara, on fire
DD Teruzuki, on fire, heavy damage
DD Yugumo, Shell hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
DD Kagero
DD Kuroshio, Shell hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
DD Hatsukaze
DD Natsushio, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Hayashio, on fire, heavy damage
DD Asagumo, on fire

Allied Ships
BB Prince of Wales
BC Repulse, Shell hits 1
CA Cornwall, Shell hits 2, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
CL Dauntless
CL Mauritius, Shell hits 1
CL Birmingham
CL Glasgow
DD Arrow, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Electra
DD Fortune
DD Hotspur, on fire
DD Pakenham
DD Paladin
DD Panther, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Sorong at 42,74

Japanese Ships
CA Atago, Shell hits 2, on fire
CA Haguro
CA Nachi, Shell hits 1, on fire
CL Naka
CL Nagara, on fire
DD Teruzuki, on fire, heavy damage
DD Yugumo, Shell hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
DD Kagero, Shell hits 1
DD Kuroshio, on fire, heavy damage
DD Hatsukaze
DD Natsushio, on fire
DD Hayashio, on fire, heavy damage
DD Asagumo, on fire

Allied Ships
BB Oklahoma, Shell hits 15, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
PT PT-142
PT PT-143
PT PT-157
PT PT-158
PT PT-159
PT PT-160
PT PT-161
PT PT-162
PT PT-164
PT PT-165
PT PT-169
PT PT-170

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Sorong at 42,74

Japanese Ships
CA Atago, on fire, heavy damage
CA Haguro
CA Nachi, on fire
CL Naka
CL Nagara, on fire
DD Teruzuki, on fire, heavy damage
DD Yugumo, on fire, heavy damage
DD Kagero
DD Kuroshio, on fire, heavy damage
DD Hatsukaze
DD Natsushio, on fire
DD Hayashio, on fire, heavy damage
DD Asagumo, on fire

Allied Ships
PT PT-144, Shell hits 2, and is sunk

[witpqs]

What a night. Tom, I realize that the engine has various limitations and problems, but I do remember the USN getting smashed with heavy cruisers versus IJN DD's at night in the Solomons IRL. Maybe there's a bit of that going on.

ORIGINAL: Tom Hunter

I have a number of explainations for this result:

One is that (as discussed on a different thread) ammo and rates of fire are a mess.

2 is that manuever works as armor (makes a ship harder to hit) in this game, but that does not happen in gunnery battles because ships need to steer in straight lines to shoot accurately. This gives a huge bonus to the CAs and CLs which are much more difficult to hit than the BBs.

The accounts that I've read of surface battles the smaller combatants tended to maneuver to evade when they were heavily out-gunned. Sometimes too making frequent course changes, albeit sailing in a straight line in between.

3 The combat system models big guns wrong, they don't hit often enough. By WWII radar directed guns were hitting with 10% or more of thier shells, which is one hit per salvo for most BBs most of the time.

Maybe because of smaller ships maneuvering to avoid being hit, I thought it was less. Maybe a hit one in three salvos or something like that. I remember things like lots of salvos with no hits and then all hell breaks loose when they finally zero in on target. I'm thinking that I read even in Surigao Straight the hit percentage was really low.

Finally the Japanese have access to 90 Naval Skill leaders, the British have access to 60 Naval Skill leaders. Considering that the Japanese were trained by the British this is really odd. It certainly helped screw me.

I definitely agree here - I always thought the Brits had some of the finest surface combat leaders in the world, but in WITP the Brit leaders (land leaders also) seem to have generic, mediocre stats.

[Tom Hunter]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

What a night. Tom, I realize that the engine has various limitations and problems, but I do remember the USN getting smashed with heavy cruisers versus IJN DD's at night in the Solomons IRL. Maybe there's a bit of that going on.

ORIGINAL: Tom Hunter

I have a number of explainations for this result:

One is that (as discussed on a different thread) ammo and rates of fire are a mess.

2 is that manuever works as armor (makes a ship harder to hit) in this game, but that does not happen in gunnery battles because ships need to steer in straight lines to shoot accurately. This gives a huge bonus to the CAs and CLs which are much more difficult to hit than the BBs.

The accounts that I've read of surface battles the smaller combatants tended to maneuver to evade when they were heavily out-gunned. Sometimes too making frequent course changes, albeit sailing in a straight line in between.

If they were doing this it would be ok, but they are not, instead they are steaming in straight lines firing away, there were numerous hits by Japanese 8" guns, and the bigger Allied warships hit with their smaller guns, which means the targets were not salvo chasing. Also smaller units usually means DDs, not CAs.

3 The combat system models big guns wrong, they don't hit often enough. By WWII radar directed guns were hitting with 10% or more of thier shells, which is one hit per salvo for most BBs most of the time.

Maybe because of smaller ships maneuvering to avoid being hit, I thought it was less. Maybe a hit one in three salvos or something like that. I remember things like lots of salvos with no hits and then all hell breaks loose when they finally zero in on target. I'm thinking that I read even in Surigao Straight the hit percentage was really low.

I hate to be a pain about this, but you have to quote real numbers because some people think 10% is really low, others think its very high. NavWeapons has some good data and charts, here is a quote and a link:

We may compare this initial value of about 0.165 Hits Per Gun Per Minute with the expected performance of 14-inch batteries in 1935, yielding approximately 0.32 Hits Per Gun Per Minute, and the standard performance of 14-inch and 16-inch main batteries in 1940, 0.75 Hits Per Gun Per Minute on the same size target at roughly equivalent range. The total expected Hits Per Gun Per Minute performance of 14-inch and 16-inch batteries in 1940 over range is given in Graph 2 below.66

http://www.navweaps.com/index_inro/INRO ... ery_p2.htm


More to the point if you decide to dodge you can't shoot back effectively, and your have basically decided to get away rather than fight. That would be fine, any commander of a cruiser foce who could run from BBs (if he knew that is what they were) would. But that is not what happened here.

A few weeks ago Herwin was pointing out the major flaw in the air system, I am pointing out a similar flaw in the Naval combat system. Basically I don't buy your defense of the system because though what you say is true it does not describe what happened here.

Finally the Japanese have access to 90 Naval Skill leaders, the British have access to 60 Naval Skill leaders. Considering that the Japanese were trained by the British this is really odd. It certainly helped screw me.

I definitely agree here - I always thought the Brits had some of the finest surface combat leaders in the world, but in WITP the Brit leaders (land leaders also) seem to have generic, mediocre stats.

[witpqs]

Tom, you're certainly not a pain to point that out. BTW, I'm not really jumping to the engine's defense as much as it might seem - I should have said so - just offering some wider perspective. I do think the results look too extreme, but mostly because of the number of times the inferior force kept coming back. That just doesn't make sense. I think the lack of realistically excellent British leaders probably made a big difference as well.

I still do believe the gunnery itself was not as much a problem with the engine, but I'm trying to find the data to back it up. So far I have found that at Surigao Strait the USN BB's fired 285 rounds from the main guns, but I have yet to find approximately how many of them were hits. Any idea?

For your battle, nightime plus the primitive radar fire control radar at that time (Mk 3, Mk 8 came later) are more limiting than the daytime stats. I find it interesting that the author (that you pointed me to) felt that USN BB night gunnery was pretty good - because they conducted night gunnery practice yearly! This does not apply to the British, of course, and the Japanese, who trained extensively at night. But those differences are taken into account by crew quality ratings anyway.

This is all moot because your PT boats are going to beat the snot out of Mogami when he comes back for more.

[AmiralLaurent]

Hi Tom,

I know it is frustating, but it doesn't surprise me. BBs are in WITP not good night fighters. In fact they are only useful against another BBs and for bombardment.

The problem is that we can't say it is unrealistic because in real life BBs were used against enemy BBs and for bombardment too...
They were very few cases of BB vs CA/DD during the war, and they were not in BB favor. Either the Scharnhorst or the Bismark were unable to get rid of DD and cruisers following or attacking them, and the Hiei and Kirishima off Guadalcanal were not so efficient. Yes the Allied TF was crushed but more by the IJN CA and DD (and their torpedoes) that by the heavy guns of the BBs.

The final result of the battle will be that you will lose a 'R'-class battleship. These ships weren't used on the frontline anymore in 1942, because they were outdated. So the whole setting of the battle is unrealistic (after all you're active in this area at least in part because of the magical war industry in Darwin/Derby, not to speak of the Kangoroo railline) so an unrealistic result is normal.

But in this game, BBs are not good for night battles.

[Tom Hunter]

"I know it is frustating, but it doesn't surprise me. BBs are in WITP not good night fighters. In fact they are only useful against another BBs and for bombardment.

The problem is that we can't say it is unrealistic because in real life BBs were used against enemy BBs and for bombardment too...
They were very few cases of BB vs CA/DD during the war, and they were not in BB favor. Either the Scharnhorst or the Bismark were unable to get rid of DD and cruisers following or attacking them, and the Hiei and Kirishima off Guadalcanal were not so efficient. Yes the Allied TF was crushed but more by the IJN CA and DD (and their torpedoes) that by the heavy guns of the BBs." -Admiral Laurent

I strongly disagree with this for a number of reasons.

Firstly we cannot look at the Pacific war alone, there is not enough data and only 2 navies involved. The way the Americans fought, emphasis on gunfire, no torpedos on the cruisers, is very different from the British, or the Germans or Italians and (for all I know) the French.

Second the battle your referencing is one battle, but there are more than one, BBs fought smaller ships at Narvik, in the Med, US BBs fought very effectively against both Japanese BBs and cruisers when they met them. I don't think the data backs up your claim, and even in the battle you cite the Americans got mauled though they did do very well considering the mix of forces on both sides.

A fundamental problem with WitP is that the combat tables reflect known data on things like heavy shell hit rates or actaul air to air losses during the war. BBs had hit rates of between 4% and a bit over 10% with their main battery, which means that if a combat round is more than 2 minutes long BBs should hit thier targets at least once, assuming that the target is trying to shoot back, not evade. I don't know how long a round of combat is supposed to be but based on ammo expenditures I think it is 6-10 minutes.


Lets look at the combat between PoW and the Japanese.

Neither side is suprised, suprise is worth a lot in naval gunnery, probably more than this combat system gives it, but there is no suprise here.

Range is 8000 yards

The British have 16 heavy caliber guns, assuming a rate of fire of 40 seconds per round ( a little slow) and an 8 minute combat round (480 seconds) the British will fire 12 shells per gun, which is 192 heavy shells. If thier hit rate is 3% they will hit 6 times, if it is 8% (which is about right at this range under these conditions) they will hit 16 times. In actuality they hit once, which is a hit rate of .05% similar to the hit rate scored by Admiral Dewey at Manila bay, and less than half of the hit rate scored by Dovton Sturdee at the Battle of the Falkland Islands early in WWI, a battle that was remarked on for its low rate of hits, and caused major changes in Royal Navy gunnery training. These changesade their way to the US Navy in 1917-18 when the US BB squadron was stationed with the British in Scapa flow.

I would bet that if we could get a good analysis of the battle you are mentioning in your post we would find that even in that fight the Japanese BBs scored a hit rate of better than .05% and they were suprised.

I don't see any defense for this system, mathmatically it may be even more broken than the air system.

[Tom Hunter]

The Allied CV TF is now on the North side of the Vogelkopf covering a transport TF that is moving a CD unit to the base that the Para's grabbed a few days before.

US 32nd division is on transports along with a tank battlation and an RAF BF heading for Wasile on the Island of Weda. Paratroops are flying in now, I hope to secure the location ahead of the landing force to avoid disruption. Wasile (if I am spelling it correctly, the hex is labeled Weda but I think that is the island) can build up to a level 6 airbase, the giving me two potential L6 bases in the area.

The Allied plan it to secure both these level 6 bases and then stop invasions in this area while the bases are built up. Sorong is L2 65% to L3 and tops out at L5, Babo is L3 80% to L4 and tops out at L5 Bulla is L1 and 60 or 80% to L2 but is never going to be a major base, Kai Island is L3 but is already being drawn down as the front moves closer to Japan.

One thing I have learned from this is that launching a sustained offensive of this type takes a lot of BFs, I have 8 on the front line and it is not nearly enough. Fortunately more are coming from both India and the USA.

The CVs and the invasion convoys will finish in this area in the next week or so and then head towards Thursday Island, from there they will cover the offensive against the Port Morsby- Gili Gili area. That attack will go in as the Vogelkopf-Weda area builds up and smashes the Japanese bases at Amboina, Morotai, Merkule and Kendari and gets 4 engine bomber coverage that will range from Balikpapan to the Southern Phillipines to Palua.

Over on the West Coast 2 USN CVEs just left heading for Noumea. The Essex arrives soon as well. 2 things are going to improve my repair and refit situation a lot as 1943 opens up. First the Essex and the new CVEs and CVLs will help me keep my CV strength up as I rotate some of the unrefitted CVs back, and second I will be able to group 2 US CVs in a TF so I can change the ratio of escorts to CVs from the current 3-4 cruiser and 8 DDs to CV to 2 cruisers and 4 DDs per CV. That will allow me to pull a lot of ships back for refits and also build more surface combat TFs without sacrificing AA cover for my carriers.

Right now Enterprise, Yorktown, Lexington and Saratoga all need the October 1942 refit, and the Royal Navy starts to be eligable for upgrades in early 1943 as well. The new US CVs will allow me to get this done without halting operations against the Japanese, which is very desirable.

[ctangus]

Hi Tom,

I've just finished reading most of this AAR & it's a great read. I've learned a lot about the game - thank you.

I have a question about your philosophy on CV TFs and why you're changing their composition now. Is there a certain minimum AAA value you want for each task force, or am I just missing something entirely?

Sorry to hear about the surface TF results. But, in my inexpert opinion, it still seems like you have him in a pickle!

[Cap Mandrake]

From the AAR of the USS Washington after the 2nd Naval Battle fo Gudalcanal


MAIN BATTERY
This ship's gunnery appeared highly effective. Fire was opened with a gun range of 18,500 yards initially by this vessel using radar ranges and optical train and hits were definitely obtained by the third salvo. It is believed target was stopped and sinking after third salvo rounds were fired.

In the second phase target had been tracked by radar ranges and bearing and later by optical train. Fire was opened at 8,400 yards and a hit was probably obtained on first Salvo and certainly on the second. Fire was rapid, on one turret ready light, for about 2 minutes 39 seconds, firing about 39 rounds. It was interrupted for 1 1/2 minutes due to an erroneous report that target was sunk, and resumed for 2 minutes and 45 seconds, during which time 36 rounds were fired. A total of 75 rounds was fired on this target which was believed to be the KIRISHIMA. Star shell illumination was used on this phase after about the second salvo, 62 rounds being fired.

According to the best data available, overall SPGPM was 1.30 and 5 guns had 1.8 average. Fire discipline was excellent.
The normal fire control set-up of this vessel was used throughout, namely:

[AmiralLaurent]

Tom, can you check what was the expendure of shells by your BB ? I wouldn't be surprised that few main battery shells (14in) were used.

As for the naval model being broken, the problem here IMOO is not that in one battle CA may win against BBs, but that the Japanese TF engaged 7 Allied TFs in a row. It's a very similar problem to the "uber CAP" and other air phenomenons that saw every air unit in the air engage every enemy air unit. In both cases, a TF or a fighter unit should be able to engage only 1 or 2 targets of the same size. That would reduce the mortality in WITP drastically, back to normal levels maybe.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: AmiralLaurent

As for the naval model being broken, the problem here IMOO is not that in one battle CA may win against BBs, but that the Japanese TF engaged 7 Allied TFs in a row.

Tom, this is basically what I'm saying as well.

BTW, at Surigao, over a time period equal to or greater that which you cited, 6 US BB's fired 285 main gun shells. The BB's with the earlier FC radar (Mk 3 like your BB's probably had) got off 69, 12, and 0 rounds. The BB's with Mk8 FC radar got off 93, 48, and 63 rounds. Amiral Laurent is probably right about the number of 14" rounds expended being less than you expect.

I'll shut up now.

[Tom Hunter]

ctangus

There are three factors influencing the composition of my CV TFs.

1) The airstrike coordination rule. In the early war 2 US CVs grouped will launch uncoordinated strikes, which is much worse than one CV launching coordinated strikes. This rule is related to the number of planes in the TF, and the upper limit rises over the course of the war. In 1943 the limit is effectively 2 CVs.

2) AA firepower, if you have more than 15 ships in a TF you start to get a diminishing return on your AA. In 1942 I run 12-15 ship CV TFs to try for the maximum return

3) The Japanese "Pearl Harbor" airstrike. In this game (but not in real life apperently, read Shattered Sword for more) it is pretty easy for the Japanese to put together a 150-200 plane airstrike. Because of a combination of Japanese pilot quality, the relative strengths of the planes involved and sheer numbers the Allied CAP and flak cannot stop this strike in 1942. So what ever it goes for it will hit (in this game a smaller version hit coming from just 2 CVs hit the Formidable, the Japanese had 6 CVs the British CVs would all be sunk or crippled right now.) and if you have multiple high value ships in a TF you will lose all of them. So the best solution is ONE high value ship, because the Japanese will drop 30 bombs and 20 torpedos on it, but not hit any of your other TFs at all. That is also why I don't put the fast BBs into single CV TFs, if the big strike does come the BB is just another ship to get sunk, because nothing can stop 150 incoming planes.

By the way during the war the only strike that big launched by either side (from CVs) was Pearl Harbor. In all the other battles I have read about, which is all of them, a large strike was 80-100 planes and many strikes were smaller.

Going back to the game the 3 USMC Paras grabbed Wasile today and the 32nd division and a BF will be unloading in 2 more days. The Allied CV fleet is just South of Weda covering, and launching rediculously large airstrikes at a couple of Japanese AKs that happened to be nearby.

[mdiehl]

Neither side is suprised, suprise is worth a lot in naval gunnery, probably more than this combat system gives it, but there is no suprise here.

Range is 8000 yards

Therein lies the rub. These night actions always seem to commence action at close range from what I've read in the AARs. While that could happen it's not likely with an Allied force that big and radar. Even at night you can figure on radar contact 30,000 yards out and optical gunfire beginning at 20,000 yards.

The other problem may well be big gun accuracy. At 8K yards, those BBs should be hitting alot.

I have a general question. Is it your sense that when two surface forces engage, it almost always happens at night?

[Tom Hunter]

The game is biased towards night battles for surface combat.

I just spent a number of hours watching the replay over and over, tracking ammo before and after and the action and I am now grinding away on the actual shots fired (ammo is all kinds of screwed up in game, so this is a big pain).

Once that is done I can get hit percentages.

I am not ready to share the results, but I was wrong about a number of things I identified as problems, the real problems are different from the ones I mentioned above.

[Tom Hunter]

Amiral and witpqs, Mogami sent a BB TF to Sorong as well, it did not even fight. The 7 rounds of engagement are really odd, I agree but I am focused on the gunfire results.

Back to the AAR though, I have moved the gunfire analysis to a different thread.

The map below shows the situation on Dec 30th 1942. The Allied CVs are covering the unloading at Weda, in a short time the troops will all be ashore, the CVs are leaving tomorrow, they have already been in one place too long.

As part of the operation to take Weda a serious effort is being made to supress Kendari. P38s from Kai Island launched a sweep:

Japanese aircraft
A6M3 Zero x 26
Ki-44-IIb Tojo x 6

Allied aircraft
P-38G Lightning x 68

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M3 Zero: 15 destroyed
Ki-44-IIb Tojo: 6 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-38G Lightning: 2 destroyed, 1 damaged

And then 4 engine bombers came in to shut the place down:

apanese aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 82
B-24D Liberator x 49

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIb Tojo: 1 destroyed
G3M Nell: 1 destroyed
G4M1 Betty: 3 destroyed
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 3 damaged
B-24D Liberator: 3 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
67 casualties reported

Airbase hits 14
Airbase supply hits 3
Runway hits 74

A few more days of this and no more raids will be coming out of the base.

Meantime the Japanese continue to launch LBA against the CVs. On the 28th they lost 30 planes doing this, today they lost another 34:

Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 13
G4M1 Betty x 11

Allied aircraft
Seafire x 19
F4F-4 Wildcat x 95

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M3a Zero: 13 destroyed
G4M1 Betty: 9 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4F-4 Wildcat: 6 destroyed, 5 damaged

Allied Ships
CV Saratoga

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 12
G3M Nell x 4
G4M1 Betty x 23

Allied aircraft
Seafire x 19
F4F-4 Wildcat x 97

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 10 destroyed
G4M1 Betty: 4 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4F-4 Wildcat: 2 destroyed, 2 damaged

For reasons unknown a group of Japanese DDs strayed within range of the US CVs. Here is the total result from 4 seperate airstrikes:

Japanese Ships
DD Mikazuki, Bomb hits 9, on fire, heavy damage
DD Usugumo Bomb hits 4
DD Ushio Bomb hits 2 +2 Torpedo hits 2
DD Hatsushima, Bomb hits 3 +5, on fire
DD Yugiri, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 1 on fire, heavy damage
DD Asagiri, Bomb hits 4 +4 Torpedo hits 1, n fire, heavy damage
DD Isonami Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 1,
DD Yuzuki Bomb hits 5, on fire, heavy damage
DD Fubuki Bomb hits 1 +9
DD Hatakaze, Bomb hits 3+2
DD Matsukaze, Torpedo hits 2, Bomb hits 1
DD Sazanami, Bomb hits 1,
DD Nenohi, Torpedo hits 1, +1 on fire
DD Sagiri, Bomb hits 4, Torpedo hits 2,
DD Hatsuharu, Torpedo hits 1,

When I watched the combat replay I did not realize there were 15 ships in the TF, tallying it all shows a much larger defeat then I thought. Several of these ships have sunk already, and what ever mischief they were planning is not going to happen.

In the CBI the Japanese threw the Chindits out of Pisanuloke with a 64,000 man attack. The British are getting ready to hit Moulmein again after a month of bombardment from air, sea and land. There are also an additional 1200 AP ready to move in. This attack needs to win before the Japanese troops walk back out of the Jungle, if Moulmein falls it is possible to capture Tavoy on the bounce, which would be a very good thing.

On the East Coast of Australia preperations are being made for the attack on the other end of New Guinea. That will be the big move in January 1942.


Strategically I am still short of base forces in the Vogelkopf area. There are now 10, 9 30 AV (or less) and one 248, plus a big one at Darwin. As it turns out this is not enough, more are coming from India and the Pacific but the lack of them is one of the reasons to slow the offensive in this area and hit somewhere else while building up here for the next big jump, which will probably be in March 1942.

[Tom Hunter]

On December 30th Mogami revealed that he was planning a 3 TF attack on Wasile, and that the Allied CVs had only caught the weakest of the 3.

Fortunately for the Allies the ground troops were all but completly unloaded and the convoy escorts and MSWs valiantly sacrificed themselves to save the troops ships. Take a look at what happened:

Night Time Surface Combat, near Wasile at 41,69

Japanese Ships
CL Abukuma
CL Kuma
CL Kiso
CL Yubari
DD Amatsukaze
DD Urakaze
DD Arashi
DD Hagikaze
DD Oshio
DD Arashio
DD Natsugumo
DD Minegumo
DD Arare
DD Kasumi

Allied Ships
MSW Pirie, Shell hits 15, and is sunk
MSW Bowen, Shell hits 12, and is sunk

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Wasile at 41,69

Japanese Ships
CL Abukuma
CL Kuma
CL Kiso
CL Yubari
DD Amatsukaze
DD Urakaze
DD Arashi
DD Hagikaze
DD Oshio
DD Arashio
DD Natsugumo
DD Minegumo
DD Arare
DD Kasumi

Allied Ships
PG Vancouver, Shell hits 5, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
MSW Pieter de Bitter, Shell hits 19, and is sunk
MSW Abraham Crijnssen, Shell hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Wasile at 41,69

Japanese Ships
CL Abukuma
CL Kuma
CL Kiso
CL Yubari
DD Amatsukaze
DD Urakaze
DD Arashi
DD Hagikaze
DD Oshio
DD Arashio
DD Natsugumo
DD Minegumo
DD Arare
DD Kasumi

Allied Ships
DD John D. Ford, Shell hits 36, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
DD Whipple, Shell hits 23, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
DD Witte de With, Shell hits 5, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
MSW Bundaberg, Shell hits 4, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
MSW Whyalla
MSW Cuttack, Shell hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
AP W.A. Holbrook
AP American Legion
AP Fuller
AP Heywood, Shell hits 1
AP President Madison
AP Chaumont
AP Moreton Bay
AP Ormiston
AK Barwon
AK Lillian Luckenbach
AK Kailua
AK Makua
AK Mormachawk
AK San Bernadino
AK San Vincente, Shell hits 1
AK Corregidor
AP Meigs
AK Regulus
AP Le Maire
AP Mijer
AP Rooseboom
AP Van Neck
PG Fritillary
PG Cyclamen
MSW Bellechasse
MSW Courtenay

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Wasile at 41,69

Japanese Ships
CA Chikuma
CA Maya
CA Myoko
CA Haguro
CA Mogami
CA Kumano
CA Kinugasa
CA Furutaka
CL Kinu
CL Kitakami
CL Oi
DD Kagero
DD Oyashio
DD Hatsukaze
DD Maikaze

Allied Ships
SC SC-638, Shell hits 2, and is sunk
AK Bellatrix, Shell hits 10, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
AK Electra, Shell hits 8, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
AK Cold Brook, Shell hits 28, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Wasile at 41,69

Japanese Ships
CA Chikuma
CA Maya
CA Myoko
CA Haguro
CA Mogami
CA Kumano
CA Kinugasa
CA Furutaka
CL Kinu
CL Kitakami
CL Oi, Shell hits 2
DD Kagero
DD Oyashio
DD Hatsukaze
DD Maikaze

Allied Ships
PT PT-142
PT PT-159
PT PT-161
PT PT-162
PT PT-164
PT PT-165
PT PT-169
PT PT-170

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Wasile at 41,69

Japanese Ships
CA Chikuma
CA Maya
CA Myoko
CA Haguro
CA Mogami
CA Kumano
CA Kinugasa
CA Furutaka
CL Kinu
CL Kitakami
CL Oi
DD Kagero
DD Oyashio
DD Hatsukaze
DD Maikaze

Allied Ships
PT PT-142
PT PT-159
PT PT-161
PT PT-162
PT PT-164
PT PT-165
PT PT-169
PT PT-170


Oddly the PT boats chansed off the heavy cruisers but the light cruisers did pretty well. I am guessing this is pure die roll luck. I do notice that warships in a convoy don't shoot much at all. The do absorbe a lot of fire though, and in this case that is what I needed. In spite of Mogami's efforts Wasile is secure with a division, a BF and a tank battalion ashore. APDs and barges are bringing in more supply (1500 there now), minefields are being layed and the troops are digging in and preparing the airfield right now.

There are numerous powerful surface groups at Sorong but Wasile has a level 0 airfield so they will not deploy there until the CAP situation improves.

Now that it is 1943 I can stack an RN and USN CV together so I consolidated a bit and the group that was providing escorts to the USS Lexington is now heading back to Pearl Harbor for refit. The Essex arrives in 2 days, and 4 US CVs still need the October refit along with 3 escort groups. There are also 3 USN CVEs on map, which is equal to about 1 CV so I am going to start sending more ships back to refit starting with the Lexingtons escorts and then some CVs when Essex and the CVEs start arriving in the theater of operations. From this point forward I expect between 10-15% of the Allied fighting strength will be in voluntary refit rotation, and another 5% under involuntart repair.

The Allied CVs are moving back to Darwin to resupply, they will then head to Cairns where a force of several divisions is gathering for the assualt on New Guinea. The strategic map below shows where I am expecting to make big efforts in the Pacific. The British will continue to push on land in Thailand as well, they are building up for a large attack on Moulmein right now.

Looking at the strategic map you can see the biggest problem faced by the Allies, a really long supply line. To all the people who say that the (historically non-existant) rail line to Darwin makes an attack into the NEI too easy to supply all I can say is What Are You Smoking? I want some!

The rail lines have allowed 160,000 fuel to flow down map to Perth, and don't affect my supply situation much at all in a positive way. I am sending numerous supply and fuel convoys from both India and the US West Coast and am barely able to keep up. There is a bordeline fuel shortage and most of the Allied tanker force is at sea. In addition to problems getting enough supply and fuel I am having a big problem with base forces, more arrive every day at it is still not even close to enough. A few more 269 AV one are on the way but once Wasile and Nouemfor open I am not certain that even those will do the trick. I am not succeeding in this area because of supply from Darwin, in fact I might be better off if Darwin did not have the rail line, I am succeeding because Mogami did not have any troops here, so I could invade empty bases. So far the biggest force I have had to fight was 3,000 Korean slave laborers armed with shovels. Future plans for the are are focused on consolidating and extending the Allied hold, destroying the Japanese bases in the area and getting Wasile and Noumefor up to L6 airbases. This will take several months but the process is well on its way.

Operation number 2 is the long planned assualt on the other end of New Guinea. I am hoping the threat to Rabaul will open up another drain on Mogami's airforce. In November the Allies shot down 930 Japanese planes, which is actually more than the Japanese built. In December it dropped to 640 or so, I want to push the losses back up past the production level if possible, a shriking airforce does a lot to constrain Japan's ability to react to Allied moves.

Even if the second New Guinea invasion does not destroy a lot of planes it will increase the pressure on the Japanese and cause a further spreading of their resources. It will also threaten to cut off the Solomons which creates another big strategic problem for Japan.

Later in 1943 with more CVs, CVEs and CVLs on map I want to launch operation 3 to cut the Japanese empire in half and shorten the Allied supply line. I still have a lot of thinking to do on this one but the strain on my merchant fleet is making it look more attractive every day. The big question is do I launch it from Pearl Via Wake or do the Allies group a big fleet near Sorong and then drive East. Pearl Via Wake allows me to bring in new forces from Hawaii, reduces the logistical problem and makes refitting the Allied fleet much easier, but jumping off from Sorong gives me staging bases at Palua, has the element of suprise and also leaves Mogami wondering which direction I will go until late in the operation.

What ever happens it is ceratin to be very violent

[Tom Hunter]

Three days of bloody massacres, but the Allied war machine continues to grind the Japanese and there is little they can do to even slow the process down.

Those who are reading the thread titled "An Analysis of Naval Combat" know that I have been looking under the hood of the combat model. I have not posted the most interesting stuff, partly because it happened in the last round of combat, and partly because I wanted to use what I have learned to smash up Mogami's fleet.

In addition to some interesting naval combat we also have a textbook defense of a place that is just begging for a nuclear shore bombardment.

Enough forshadowing, lets get into the action, all of which is

Finally the British are getting ready to break the Japanese front at Moulmein. I have been watching land combat very closely and figured out some exploints there as well. But since everyone knows land combat is completely screwed up I see no reason to start threads on the topic. Naval combat needed to be exposed for the bugger all that it is, so I put some effort there.

On January 3rd KB came down to strike the Allied surface combat TFs that are guarding Sorong. The Allies have been rushing base forces and fighter in as fast as possible, the net result was the Allies were not as well prepared as they wanted to be, but better prepared than the Japanese wanted them.


This was the big "mass wave" attack that the air combat model tends to give the Japanese. Though I had a fair number of fighters airborne it really takes 100 or more to stop this attack. I have to hand it to Mogami, he got past my air search and came in before I was fully prepared, then he scored:

Day Air attack on TF, near Sorong at 42,74

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 28
D3A Val x 127
A6M3a Zero x 39
B5N Kate x 66

Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 41

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 8 destroyed
D3A Val: 15 destroyed, 46 damaged
A6M3a Zero: 15 destroyed, 1 damaged
B5N Kate: 13 destroyed, 23 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
F4F-4 Wildcat: 26 destroyed

Allied Ships
BB Washington, Bomb hits 10, Torpedo hits 8, on fire, heavy damage
BB North Carolina, Bomb hits 15, Torpedo hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
DD Monssen, Bomb hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
CA Australia
DD Stack
CL Enterprise, Bomb hits 3, on fire
CA Pensacola, Torpedo hits 5, on fire, heavy damage
CL Phoenix

Washington and Pensacola are both on the bottom.
An additional wave came in the afternoon and did some damage to the British BBs:

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 25
D3A Val x 6
A6M3a Zero x 32
B5N Kate x 30

Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 27

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 11 destroyed, 1 damaged
D3A Val: 2 damaged
A6M3a Zero: 4 destroyed
B5N Kate: 4 destroyed, 22 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
F4F-4 Wildcat: 14 destroyed

Allied Ships
CL Leander
BB Ramilles, Torpedo hits 1
BB Warspite, Torpedo hits 2
CA Exeter, Torpedo hits 3, on fire, heavy damage

End result was two ships sunk, some damage to the Japanese airgroups and some Wildcats shot down.


Nothing much happened on the 4th, the damaged ships were organized into TFs and headed for Darwin, the Allied CVs started an outraged run to the North, and KB pulled back out of LBA range. Mogami does not know it but 5th Airforce HQ is unloading at Babo which should get more planes launching. Additional AF HQ units are coming from India and Australia, soon they will be at every major base.

Also on the 4th I reorganized my surface combat TFs. Some of the people who read my complaint about my BBs not hitting anything when Mogami's cruisers attacked Sorong were quite critical of my experimental TF with the USS Okalhoma and 13 PT boats. What they did not realize (not seeing the combat relplays) was that all the shell hits the Japanese took were from the Oklahoma. Basically the Okalhoma would have won hands down if she had not been torpedoed. As it was she was by far the top performer that night, doing much better than the properly (by any rational standard) organized BB and Cruiser TFs run by the Royal Navy or the IJN.

So I set up more Oklahoma type TFs, and cruiser TFs. I aslo concentrated as much airpower as possible.

At Wasile I sent some PTs, brought the minefield up to 170 or so, and pulled all the large shipping, Wasile is being supplied by barges and C47s right now. It is also building up forts as fast as possible, I don't want to be the victim of the nuclear bombardment and they are really easy to stop if you understand the game.

So January 5 comes along and the IJN comes to shut down Sorong.

Night Time Surface Combat, near Sorong at 42,74

Japanese Ships
BB Haruna
CA Chikuma, Shell hits 1
CA Maya
CA Myoko
CA Mogami
CA Kumano
CA Kinugasa
CA Furutaka
CL Kinu
CL Abukuma
DD Oyashio
DD Maikaze
DD Amatsukaze, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
DD Urakaze
DD Hagikaze

Allied Ships
BB Maryland, Shell hits 7
DD Welles
DD Parrott, Shell hits 2, on fire
SC SC-517
SC SC-741, Shell hits 3, and is sunk
PT PT-178
PT PT-179
PT PT-180
PT PT-181
PT PT-182
PT PT-183
PT PT-184
PT PT-185
PT PT-186

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Sorong at 42,74

Japanese Ships
BB Haruna, Shell hits 1, on fire
CA Chikuma
CA Maya
CA Myoko, Shell hits 3
CA Mogami, Shell hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
CA Kumano
CA Kinugasa
CA Furutaka
CL Kinu, Shell hits 1
CL Abukuma
DD Oyashio
DD Maikaze
DD Amatsukaze, on fire
DD Urakaze
DD Hagikaze, Shell hits 1

Allied Ships
BB Revenge, Shell hits 6, on fire
DD Vendetta
DD Le Triomphant, Shell hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
DD Norman, Shell hits 5, on fire, heavy damage
PT PT-143
PT PT-150
PT PT-157
PT PT-158
PT PT-160
PT PT-163
PT PT-166
PT PT-167
PT PT-168
PT PT-171

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Sorong at 42,74

Japanese Ships
BB Haruna, Shell hits 4, on fire
CA Chikuma, Shell hits 2
CA Maya
CA Myoko
CA Mogami, Shell hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
CA Kumano
CA Kinugasa
CA Furutaka, Shell hits 2
CL Kinu
CL Abukuma, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD Oyashio
DD Maikaze, Shell hits 1
DD Amatsukaze, on fire
DD Urakaze
DD Hagikaze

Allied Ships
CL Boise, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD Aaron Ward, Shell hits 1
DD Buchanan
DD Bagley
DD Blue
DD Helm
DD Patterson
DD Craven

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Sorong at 42,74

Japanese Ships
BB Haruna, on fire
CA Chikuma
CA Maya
CA Myoko
CA Mogami, on fire, heavy damage
CA Kumano
CA Kinugasa
CA Furutaka
CL Kinu
CL Abukuma, on fire
DD Oyashio
DD Maikaze
DD Amatsukaze, Shell hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
DD Urakaze
DD Hagikaze

Allied Ships
PT PT-146
PT PT-147
PT PT-149
PT PT-172
PT PT-173, Shell hits 3, and is sunk
PT PT-174, Shell hits 10, and is sunk

Needless to say they failed. Much more on why in a later addition of the Analysis of Naval Combat thread.

The Allied BBs involved were almost unscratched, and there is a large cruiser TF that never saw action.

At the same time a group of Japanese BBs went to bombard Wasile, but first their TF found the minefield:

Japanese Ships
CL Kiso, Mine hits 1, on fire


This was a very important part of stopping the bombardment, the combat system does not like steaming through minefields when on bombardment missions. (A fine peice of design work if you ask me, and working correctly too. I am not against everything in the model, but I am convinced it is a mess.)

Night Time Surface Combat at 41,70

Japanese Ships
BB Hyuga
CA Mikuma
CL Kuma
CL Kiso, on fire, heavy damage
CL Kitakami
CL Oi
CL Yubari
DD Kagero
DD Arashi
DD Oshio
DD Arashio

Allied Ships
LCT LCT-59, Shell hits 3, and is sunk
LCT LCT-60, Shell hits 4, and is sunk
LCT LCT-61, Shell hits 8, and is sunk

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat at 41,70

Japanese Ships
BB Hyuga
CA Mikuma
CL Kuma
CL Kiso, on fire, heavy damage
CL Kitakami
CL Oi
CL Yubari
DD Kagero
DD Arashi
DD Oshio
DD Arashio

Allied Ships
LCT LCT-58, Shell hits 8, and is sunk
LCT LCT-64, Shell hits 4, and is sunk
LCM 532A, Shell hits 3, and is sunk

So they sunks some barges and left. I will admit that I am guessing they were on a bombardment mission, it is entirely possible that Mogami set them on a surface sweep to catch merchant shipping.


Finally the Japanese did bombard Sorong which has no forts yet. They did not accomplish much, this is about 6% disruption, maybe less.

Naval bombardment of Sorong, at 42,74 - Coastal Guns Fire Back!


Allied aircraft
no flights


Allied aircraft losses
Beaufort V-IX: 1 destroyed
F4F-4 Wildcat: 1 destroyed
P-38G Lightning: 1 destroyed
Catalina I: 1 destroyed
PB2Y Coronado: 1 destroyed

36 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.
Japanese Ships
DD Hagikaze
DD Urakaze
DD Maikaze, Shell hits 5, on fire, heavy damage
DD Oyashio
CL Abukuma, on fire
CL Kinu
CA Furutaka
CA Kinugasa
CA Kumano, Shell hits 3
CA Mogami, on fire, heavy damage
CA Myoko
CA Maya
CA Chikuma
BB Haruna, on fire


Allied ground losses:
4492 casualties reported
Guns lost 17
Vehicles lost 21

Airbase hits 2
Airbase supply hits 3
Runway hits 15
Port hits 9
Port fuel hits 3
Port supply hits 6


And then it was time for the angy bees nest that is Sorong to react. Sadly for the Allies, and very lucky for the IJN could cover protected most of the Japanese ships, but several damaged vessels were not able to reach the safetly of the waiting clouds:

Day Air attack on TF at 42,73


Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 4
Hurricane II x 3
Beaufort V-IX x 3
P-40E Warhawk x 3


No Allied losses

Japanese Ships
DD Amatsukaze, Bomb hits 1, on fire, heavy damage

(rolls over and sinks)

Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 9
SBD Dauntless x 24
SOC-3 Seagull x 3
Hurricane II x 6
Vengeance I x 13
Beaufort V-IX x 4
P-40E Warhawk x 13


Allied aircraft losses
Vengeance I: 1 damaged

Japanese Ships
CA Mogami, Bomb hits 22 +4 on fire, heavy damage

And the name sake cruiser rolls over and sinks.

Finally Vengeance is mine:

Allied aircraft
Vengeance I x 15
P-40E Warhawk x 12


Allied aircraft losses
Vengeance I: 6 damaged

Japanese Ships
BB Hyuga, Bomb hits 5, on fire

So in the end the Allies lose some SCs and PTs and the Japanese lose a DD and a CA. If the weather had been a little different those losses would have been much worse but that is the way things go.

Here is part of the British effort to break the Japanese lines. I took the screenshot because I had never seen such a collection of aircraft before and I thought others might like to look at it too.