ORIGINAL: el cid again
Speaking of realpolitik, do you find it reasonable that Japan expected America to provide it w/ the oil and scrap iron (as well as other resources) needed to conquer China and help it become a stronger rival to the US? I'll stand by my previous statement and call that fantasy.
You are using loaded language - prejudicial language - and betraying thereby (being kind) confusion about the situation (unless you are deliberatly trying to mislead - the other reason for loaded language).
I assume you are just well read and using the formulations we would have at the time - which is reasonable and innocent. But it is nevertheless quite misleading about the actual situation.
In a nutshell, you cannot separate "iron and oil" (actuall iron, rubber and oil) for war with China from "iron and oil" for the civil economy. A TOTAL embargo of all three MUST NEEDS go way beyond the elements needed for that war and MUST NEEDS threaten nothing short of starvation writ large for a nation in the unique situation of Japan (it has less than 2% tillable land and, after being "encouraged" to become a trading power and abolish its severe policy on restricted population, it must manufacture and trade to get food itself - not "it would be nice" - MUST). We actually understood this perfectly well - and we also understood that Japan - under even the most liberal admistration - would never permit a foreign power to dictate its foreign policy. We would hardly have done after five years in any of the major wars we ever fought - except I can't think of any major ones that lasted that long. When the ostensible political object of a policy is not possible, the real object must be something else. We were not really trying to come to terms with Japan - and we were never that great of a champion of China - although I believe we were less colonialists in China than the other colonial powers were - thinking of the "open door" - remember the point was WE wanted a SHARE in the spoils too - and we enforced our policy with gunboats INSIDE a different "country" WITHOUT permission - a very odd policy for a democratic nation.
What you call loaded or predjudicial I consider an accurate and objective assessment of the situation prior to the embargos.
You can separate the oil, rubber and iron used by the civ population and the military. Japanese agriculture was not mechanized in any significant way. Cutting off oil, rubber and iron would not affect their production of food. Coal provided the vast majority of their electrical power, transportation and industrial needs. Their own oil production was sufficient for their agricultural uses. I can't seem to find the havoc wrought upon the civilian economy that occured from the scrap metal embargo in 1940 or the one on aviation gasoline in the same year. Rubber wasn't a factor, Japan could import all it needed after occupying French Indochina. They didn't seem to mind dictating foreign policy to France there, did they?
There was never much chance for starvation. Korea, Taiwan and China made Japan relatively self-sufficient in food stuffs (although it probably made Korea, Taiwan and China no longer self-sufficient). Japan only started to starve in WW2 after it sealanes were cut.
You say that the US was never really trying to come to terms with Japan. I'm saying that there wasn't a point in trying. Hypocrisy in diplomacy is nothing new, but saying that a country won't tolerate having its foregn policy dictated to while doing the same to other countries, doesn't provide a rational basis for any sort of negotiation. Neither is expecting a country to provide you with the raw materials for you to expand territorily and militarily.
Real or ostensible, the US policy was not in favor of providing the means to creating a rival to its interests and position in the Pacific. Japan's policy was to become self-sufficient by any means necessary. The two policies were incompatible.
Japan's arable land is about 11-12%.
Feel free to reply, but there isn't a point in arguing this further. Our positions are unlikely to change. Let me know if I'm confused about this as well.