Surrender?

[el cid again]

The best information on this subject re the USA is in the recorded concerns of Gen Marshall and FDR re casualties. It is clear that, had things continued to go as they did pre-Midway, at some point this would have mattered. IMHO Guadalcanal was a mistake - and it was a violation of US doctrine as it later evolved - insofar as

(A) a major landing was done outside of range of land based air support
(B) a major ground combat force was committed to battle which had not trained above the battalion level at all.

It is easy to imagine how this battle might have gone much worse than it did. The worst defeat in actual battle in USN history was at Savo Island.
[Pearl Harbor involved worse USN losses, but it was a US ARMY battle - because the Army was responsible for fleet defense in port.] Without the reverses at Midway, it is easy to imagine either we don't attempt Guadalcanal - or we get creamed.

The biggest problem with a Japanese victory scenario is that, unlike the Russo-Japanese war, Japan had no exit strategy. But it nearly had one - that is planners had been working on a possible one in dealing with Hawaii (since 1910). IF it had been adopted and successfully executed,
Japan might have offered a neutral Hawaii as one term of peace. Its fall back position could be return of Hawaii to the USA (provided by then you could sell that in Hawaii - about which there is some doubt - but at least agree to a plebicite).

The greatest strategic issues are not under Japanese control. These involve the defeat of the Soviet Union. Nevertheless, Japan never tried, and it might have done. A coordinated campaign (long considered) in 1942 might have worked (coordinated with Germany and other USSR foes, including Finland, Turkey and Romania - the first and last of these pissed by not long past Soviet invasions). IF the USSR breaks up, Germany and Japan have a strategic line of communications and they have no shortage of raw materials. Add to that they can buy things from the gigantic manufacturing base in the USSR (it made at least 9 times more than was given to it under lend lease, for example). Such a situation might permit Japan a much stronger position in the PTO - at least if its plans to "cork the bottle" at Chita were implemented. [A small force there - a class A army with mechanized formations and an air brigade in support - might be hard to displace - freeing up many troops and planes. A similar force would be needed in Amur Province, and yet another in Manchuria.]

Another dimension is that, according to historians, the basic plan (an autarky) was economically viable, and properly managed, politically possible. Anti-colonial sentiment was very high, and the moral position of even the USA weak - because it had its own colonial interests (in the Philippines) and quasi-colonial interests (in China) - in spite of its better than others policy. Had the Foreign Ministry been in charge (instead of semi-independent - and semi-piratical - elements of IJA), it could have been different.

The real reason Japan was doomed to defeat is the same as with most losers in most wars: it defeated itself. It failed to mobilize fully and seriously, and to adopt uniform standards, until mid-war. It failed to bring renegade military officers to heel, and indeed it may be said they dictated critical early-war policy as well as caused many political problems in many sort of occupied areas (Japan never used a true occupation system in most places, Borneo excepted). It made gross operational errors (two raiders went down with hundreds of torpedoes - something that IJN never recovered from - as a tiny example which matters - and there are worse cases - Morison says Japan managed to violate ALL the principles of war at Midway!) If you could reform all these things at once - I can propose who could have done so (though not how to keep them alive in the nightmare politics of Japan) - while Japan might have had a shot at winning - it might also not have gone to war at all.
It really turns on the policy of FDR - about which I am quite skeptical - but IF you think FDR was negotiable - I think he was before about November 1941 - MAYBE there was a way out of the fight. That might amount to an Allied defeat - it happened before - more than once - in respect to China - and it has happened many times since. It is said US politicians can squander almost any victory by US troops! Wether or no, many, many times US troops are not allowed to fight. [I remember the USN went to war in the Pueblo Incident - but it didn't turn out to matter - because the President failed to allow us to act.]

[el cid again]

Funny guys, but I was thinking more along the lines of what gains would a Japanese player really need to force a favorably negotiated peace for Japan. I think obviously the US would have to be hurt bad. maybe if Japan sunk the US fleet and controlled PH. The US would have seen invasion as immenent.

In the first game under release 1.0 of WITP at Metro Seattle Gamers,
one player took all of North America (on the map)! That what you had in mind?

[el cid again]

Looking back from 60+ years later, it boggles the mind at how the Japanese thought that they could take on so many major powers with the hope of winning.

Study the Andromeda Affair. They had amazing intel - accurate but possibly fatally creating an impression of weakness.

[mlees]

Study the Andromeda Affair. They had amazing intel - accurate but possibly fatally creating an impression of weakness.

Please provide (English language) link. Google only gives French lang or scifi fan-fiction.

[Dereck]

ORIGINAL: Terminus

I shudder to think what sort of defeat the US would have had to suffer at the hands of Japan before she'd surrender.

Yamamoto had it right when he said they'd have to be in Washington, DC to dictate peace. The US was NEVER going to surrender after Pearl Harbor.

[Dereck]

ORIGINAL: niceguy2005

ORIGINAL: mlees

I'm trying to Google Lend Lease, I still can't find the vote margin (would give an idea of degree of isolationism). Can't find it yet. Beuller... Beuller...

That's a toughie.

10/01/1941 Roosevelt introduces his 'Lend Lease' bill to the House of Representatives as House Resolution 1776 (H.R. 1776), after recognising that neither Britain or China could continue paying indefinitely for material supplied. This allowed the fighting allies to pay the USA back in kind, but after the war. He likened this to 'lending a neighbour a garden hose to put out a fire'.

08/03/1941 The US Senate passes the 'Lend Lease' bill by 60 votes to 31.

11/03/1941 The US House of Representatives passes the 'Lend Lease' Bill by 317 votes to 71, where upon it is immediately signed by President Roosevelt. Initial priority for war supplies was to be given to Britain and Greece.

Thanks mlees.

So the vote wasn't as close as I thought.

Still, would the US really go to war with Japan without being attacked?

I've read many books about an "unofficial" agreement between Churchill and FDR where FDR hinted he'd come into a Pacific War even if not attacked. However, given the public opinion at the time which was still more isolationist than interventionist FDR would have had to sell going to war to Congress which he probably wouldn't have been able to do. Consider this: when he DID declare war it was only against Japan and not Germany too because FDR didn't think the American public would support going to war against a country which didn't attack us.

[niceguy2005]

ORIGINAL: dereck

ORIGINAL: Terminus

I shudder to think what sort of defeat the US would have had to suffer at the hands of Japan before she'd surrender.

Yamamoto had it right when he said they'd have to be in Washington, DC to dictate peace. The US was NEVER going to surrender after Pearl Harbor.

Agreed, after Pearl Harbor, but if Pearl Harbor never happened...?

[dtravel]

Go to Google Groups and look up "soc.history.what-if". (Better yet find it in your ISP's Usenet feed, but not everyone seems to have direct Usenet access anymore.) This kind of discussion comes up there regularly and a number of very knowledgeable people frequent it. I seem to recall a discussion similar to this one occuring there recently.

[Hunter2006]

An interesting thing to note on this discussion is that FDR actually got elected by promising to keep the US out of the war, when in reality he was doing everything possible to get into it.

If you are looking for a theoretical presidential candidate who would have kept the US more isolationist, try Charles Lindbergh or Joe Kennedy.

[dtravel]

ORIGINAL: Hunter2006


An interesting thing to note on this discussion is that FDR actually got elected by promising to keep the US out of the war, when in reality he was doing everything possible to get into it.

If you are looking for a theoretical presidential candidate who would have kept the US more isolationist, try Charles Lindbergh or Joe Kennedy.

Both of whom were actually hoping the Nazis would win....

[rockmedic109]

Joe Kennedy was actively working towards running against FDR for the Democcrat ticket. He was the ambassador to England at the time and one of the people at the embassy was arrested for passing secrets to a German agent. No proof of his {Kennedy} involvement in the incident was ever made publicly known. However, Kennedy was recalled to Washington shortly afterwards. Right up untill a meeting with FDR at the White House, he was trying to get the party nomination. After this meeting, he withdrew from his attempts at the presidency and publicly supported FDR.

Oh, to have been a fly onthe wall......................

[el cid again]

Please provide (English language) link. Google only gives French lang or scifi fan-fiction.

There is a Sea Classics article on it - although I am not aware of a link. I can scan and send pages if you like.

In summery, a German raider was in the Indian Ocean - having transited the Arctic and Pacific to get there - when she ran into HMS Andromedon. This merchant put up a whale of a fight - and eventually a 5.9 inch killed the entire bridge crew and security detail. On that bridge the exec of the raider found weighted sacks ready to be thrown overboard. In the sacks was a report in detail of Imperial defenses in the Pacific theater - by the former governor of Mayaya - writing in London. A copy was en route to the current authorities in Singapore. The captain understood its significance, and suspended raider ops, took a prize ship (a Norwegian tanker) to Japan, and sent the report to Germany using the Russian postal telegraph code (a commercial code not being intercepted by Allied intel at that time). He got permission to give it to Japan. A few days later, Japan decided to mobilize. The report indicated the exact situation in OB terms, plans not funded, morale, etc. It was dismal. Japan felt it has a unitque opportunity to strike while colonial powers were "distracted" by the war in ETO.

Post script: the good raider captain - who returned to raiding and eventually to Germany by the same route - was eventually made chief of the German Navy - after the war was over in the 1950s.

[el cid again]

Yamamoto had it right when he said they'd have to be in Washington, DC to dictate peace. The US was NEVER going to surrender after Pearl Harbor.

Rah rah rah. This is of course wonderful propaganda. But it is lousy strategy and might be really stupid in some circumstances. We have demonstrated that we don't have to win a war to survive as a great power (not that I liked it at the time - or now). A rational national leader must only talk like this for purposes of public morale boosting - never be so irrational as to think that way. Clearly Gen Marshall and FDR did not think this way. They worried about casualties even when we were winning.

Yamamoto did not mean that Japan would attempt to march on Washington - he meant that it was very hard to defeat the US. But Japan wins if the war ends - and it has an autarky and dominates the Western Pacific. Get this right folks: PRC is about to try the same thing: the official goal is now in three phase lines - dated 2030, 2050 and presumably 2070. The FIRST phase line ends at Kodiak Alaska. The third at Hawaii.

[el cid again]

Consider this: when he DID declare war it was only against Japan and not Germany too because FDR didn't think the American public would support going to war against a country which didn't attack us.

I agree with FDR. See Hitler's Mistakes for analysis of why Germany should not have declared war on the US. [Japan was in it anyway - it could hardly back out after Pearl Harbor]. Why should Germany give the US an excuse to attack it directly?

[Hunter2006]

Get this right folks: PRC is about to try the same thing: the official goal is now in three phase lines - dated 2030, 2050 and presumably 2070. The FIRST phase line ends at Kodiak Alaska. The third at Hawaii

This is way off topic, unless viewed through the lens of a future "China vs US WitP Scenario" If that is the case lets analyze some data...

Firstly, China should not be able to nuke the west coast because they would kill more chinese than they would 'Americans'.

Secondly, China should have an option to "buy" America. (see also, the Clinton Administration).

Thirdly, China should be able to automatically detonate a "Fozzy Bear" nuclear warhead at every Wal-mart in the U.S. from Bangor Maine to Baja California.

Fourthly, The Panama Canal, the San Diego Ports and San Francisco should start the scenario as massive Chinese Home Depot cities.

Fiftly, There should be a 50-50 chance that any US state west of the Mississippi that has even ONE chinese soldier enter it, should surrender, thus enthusiastically embracing communism. (An attack on the east coast should require at least ONE CHI-COM soldier yelling "boo!")

Which brings up... sixthly... Your timetable is WAAAAY Off. The chinese ALREADY own America... in less than twenty years our public school children will be taking writing lessons in cuniform.

I just feel really-really-really sorry for all those grinning illegal immigrants that are going to be caught waving the mexican flag.



H

[dtravel]

I thought cuniform was ancient Egyptian? [&:]

[Hunter2006]

I thought cuniform was ancient Egyptian?

Hey pal, That kind of thinking will get you 'Dung Shaow Pinged' faster than a few thousand protesters on Tienamen Square. [;)]

HOWEVER... you are... well, kinda sorta half way right... according to google...

"The earliest writing in Mesopotamia was a picture writing invented by the Sumerians who wrote on clay tablets using long reeds. The script the Sumerians invented and handed down to the Semitic peoples who conquered Mesopotamia in later centuries, is called cuneiform, which is derived from two Latin words: cuneus , which means "wedge," and forma , which means "shape." This picture language, similar to but more abstract than Egyptian hieroglyphics, eventually developed into a syllabic alphabet under the Semites (Assyrians and Babylonians) who eventually came to dominate the area. "

I guess I was searching my tiny little mind for the correct word and "Cuniform" came to mind faster than "Chicken scratch" My Bad. [8D]

BTW, have you every read that book about over-population in China? It was written by a guy named 'Wei Fukum Yung'?


H

[Ursa MAior]

Well since China means middle kingdom (between heaven and hell that is) I dont think the chinese will turn into a dragon (ie start conquering). They think they live in the best place the world can offer.
There was the same hysteria when Sony bought Universal or what in 1984 or 85. At that time it was the japs, now the chinese. You dont have to worry about them at all. Much rather for los hombres since they are already in your backyard.
BUT if the set timescale is true the first PRC soldier will be welcomed in SF or LA with 'Bienvenido' and not 'welcome'. I dont like Huntington but he is probably right in his last book.

[Terminus]

The Chinese are too busy playing capitalists to go to war, and the sort of arrogant postulations that people like el cid make are just idiotic. He has nothing resembling facts to base them on, but when has that ever stopped him?

Not that I like the Chinese much... their latest preposterous boast is that they, not the Scots, invented golf. I wonder what'll be next: maybe they discovered penicilin or built the Pyramids in Egypt?

[String]

I've had a PBEM opponent run away [:D]