Quick curiousity - What were KBs orders on 12-05?

[mlees]

My point was that it was a silly hypothetical, and the questioner would have done better to postulate something more reasonable....

Wow. So Mr. Scholl, could you offer an example of a more "reasonable what if"?

"What if the Japanese Army and Navy got along better?" (Which they do, in this game, as represented by a single Japanese player. Even the AI is free of this political mess.) This question is, to me, a less likely "what if" than a USN CV operating NE of Midway on the first week of December, '41...

Is it your feeling that all "what if's" are a big waste of time?

'Cause, like, the game's a big "what if", sir. Consider:

First, this game, while enjoyable, is not strictly accurate in some areas to be 100% faithful to historical accuracy. (Ground combat, large A2A combat, prodction/supply models, etc.) Your going to be free to make your plans of world conquest and/or liberation without regard to some of the concerns that the real life commanders had to put up with.

Second, as soon as you take control (whith your many games under your belt), your going to know what strategies "work" in this game, and what don't. The real life commanders had plans, and they had war gamed out some of the scenarios, but I would guess that they were restricted in their thinking by some prewar doctrines that did not pan out. You are free of that.

Edit for more spelling errors.

[Mike Scholl]

ORIGINAL: mlees

My point was that it was a silly hypothetical, and the questioner would have done better to postulate something more reasonable....

Wow. So Mr. Scholl, could you offer an example of a more "reasonable what if"? As I mentioned in my reply, a more reasonable "what if" would have been the Enterprise Group arriving back at PH when it was scheduled to on the evening of the 6th. That was caused by simple technical difficulties that could have gone either way. A legitimate "what if"...

"What if the Japanese Army and Navy got along better?" (Which they do, in this game, as represented by a single Japanese player. Even the AI is free of this political mess.) This question is, to me, a less likely "what if" than a USN CV operating NE of Midway on the first week of December, '41... I agree that the cooperation of the IJA and the IJN is a problem that "PP's" don't really begin to cover. But short of forcing the Japanese player to be either the IJA or the IJN (with the computer's AI playing the other and cooperating when it decided to), I'm not sure there is an answer...., and I don't envy anyone trying to sell such a game.

Is it your feeling that all "what if's" are a big waste of time? No, I think they can be a lot of fun. I just think that they shouldn't be too far removed from the realms of possibility. The Enterprise being in PH is such a possibility..., as is the off chance of KB having been sighted by something and PH being alerted to some extent. On the other hand, Godzilla smashing up ships, or the NIMITZ being "teleported" back to 1941, or Kido Butai running into a US CV when they were over 100o miles apart in reality? Those belong in the realms of Science Fiction, not historical "what if's"

'Cause, like, the game's a big "what if", sir. Consider:

First, this game, while enjoyable, is not strictly accurate in some areas to be 100% faithful to historical accuracy. (Ground combat, large A2A combat, prodction/supply models, etc.) Your going to be free to make your plans of world conquest and/or liberation without regard to some of the concerns that the real life commanders had to put up with. Here we disaggree. I think you should be "free to make your plans for world conquest" ONLY within the limitations of the historical technology, situation, and limitations". Otherwise, shy play at all? What's the point of re-creating historical conflicts if you ignore historical realities? Just make the whole thing up and pretend you are "John Carter of Mars".

Second, as soon as you take control (whith your many games under your belt), your going to know what strategies "work" in this game, and what don't. The real life commanders had plans, and they had war gamed out some of the scenarios, but I would guess that they were restricted in their thinking by some prewar doctrines that did not pan out. You are free of that. And so is my opponant. Yes, we BOTH have to labor under the restrictive bonds of "hindsight". That's the best a "simulation" can hope to achieve. But it doesn't mean either of us wants to add in "little green men" or something else equally far-fetched.

Edit for more spelling errors.

[mlees]

As I mentioned in my reply, a more reasonable "what if" would have been the Enterprise Group arriving back at PH when it was scheduled to on the evening of the 6th. That was caused by simple technical difficulties that could have gone either way. A legitimate "what if"...

I don't think you are going to find an argument with me about that possibility. Nor will you find an argument with me about what would happen to the ship if it is caught in port during the PH raid.

But, the OP asked, what would the KB do if they were spotted by (and we assume that they knew they were spotted) a USN CV. I think most agree: They would sink it and move on.

The only disagreement here seems to be the likelihood of such a carrier being out that way. You claim zero chance, based soley on real life historical "at start" positions. I disagree that such a chance was that low. Doesn't matter who is "right" here.

The purpose of the "what if", in this thread, as asked by the OP, was to discuss what we thought Naguma (and Halsey/Kimmel) do. He set up a hypothetical meeting. He did not ask what was the most likely reason (or chances of) a carrier being in that location.

No, I think they can be a lot of fun. I just think that they shouldn't be too far removed from the realms of possibility.

But it only takes 2 days to steam 1000 miles at 25 knots to change that distance. That small difference in schedule (or in mission) just is not reasonably possible?

Those ships did exercise NE of Midway, NW of Hawaii. Just not that week, historically speaking.

The Enterprise being in PH is such a possibility..., as is the off chance of KB having been sighted by something and PH being alerted to some extent.

I agree, yet you are refusing to believe in the possibility of a carrier doing the spotting, based on their historical positions. We know that, historically, the Lex and Enterprise were too far away, and thank goodness. But there is no reason for the USN to avoid that area. They just happened to chart different real life courses.

On the other hand, Godzilla smashing up ships, or the NIMITZ being "teleported" back to 1941, or Kido Butai running into a US CV when they were over 100o miles apart in reality? Those belong in the realms of Science Fiction, not historical "what if's".

I was postulating that the Enterprise or Lex TF could have been exercising NE of Midway on 5 December. I am not speculating on the chances of, and effects of, Nimitz class carriers popping outta nowhere (ala "Final Countdown"). Why do you equate them as being the same?

I think you should be "free to make your plans for world conquest" ONLY within the limitations of the historical technology, situation, and limitations".

You say anything that is possible with the given tech is ok. American carriers can't sail NE of Midway?

The only "change" would be situational. In that, instead of delivering planes to Midway or Wake, the CV in question is exercising NE of Midway, maybe in cooperation with Midway to train their PBY's, as well. You may think that that is sheer fantasy, but I think that is well within the realm of "possible". *shrugs*

Otherwise, why play at all? What's the point of re-creating historical conflicts if you ignore historical realities? Just make the whole thing up and pretend you are "John Carter of Mars".

There you go again, making an extreme comparison.

And so is my opponant. Yes, we BOTH have to labor under the restrictive bonds of "hindsight". That's the best a "simulation" can hope to achieve. But it doesn't mean either of us wants to add in "little green men" or something else equally far-fetched.

Stop right there, mister! You can "house rule" out those hindsights, and force the players to use prewar plans and doctrine! (Just joking!)

Once again, a USN CV operating NE of Midway, on 5 December, for whatever reason, is most definately not far fetched.

Yet, we seem to be arguing in circles on that point:

You say "No carriers could have spotted the KB, because they were at position "x" in real life."

I say "True, but what if one of them is at postion "y" instead."

You say "No, they were here, at position "x"! Or Pearl! Nowhere else!"

I say "Why not position "y"?

You say "Because they were here, at position "x" in real life!"

And around we go.

You act as if the Japanese Fanboy Club (I assure you, I am not a card carrying member of that august organisation) is screaming for an official patch to hand them all of the US carriers on turn one. Or Jets. Or the Abomb. And so on. That is not the case.

I was speculating, based on the OP's question, of post #4. Nothing more.

[mlees]

Does anyone else feel that I am nuts?[:D]

[ChezDaJez]

Does anyone else feel that I am nuts?

Nope, I totally agree with you. IMO, the entire hypothesis was designed to see what players thought Nagumo would have done had that situation occurred and was entirely within the realm of possibility. A change of orders would be all that was required.

Mr. Scholl chose to believe this scenario was as probable as time-warping Nimitz back to the period or bringing in Godzilla. He was the one making the absurd comments. His only argument was that it couldn't happen because the US carriers were "over there" and that this scenario was a JFB creation designed to rid the seas of US ships. Personally, I find it a little sad that Mr. Scholl chooses to see a JFB behind every tree... (well, ok, posting).

But, hey, what do I know? I'm supposed to be a true-blue, dyed-in-the-wool, over-the-top JFB who believes that Japan could easily whip the US with both hands and one foot tied behind her back.

Chez

[mlees]

Nope, I totally agree with you. IMO, the entire hypothesis was designed to see what players thought Nagumo would have done had that situation occurred and was entirely within the realm of possibility. A change of orders would be all that was required.

OK. Thanks. I was getting worried. I don't wish to be unreasonable. I am willing to admit when I am wrong. (It happens more than I wish.) I have yet to hold "grudges" with anybody I met on the few forums I browse.

Mr Scholl, no hard feelings, I hope.

[Mike Scholl]

No, I think they can be a lot of fun. I just think that they shouldn't be too far removed from the realms of possibility.

But it only takes 2 days to steam 1000 miles at 25 knots to change that distance. That small difference in schedule (or in mission) just is not reasonably possible? Those ships did exercise NE of Midway, NW of Hawaii. Just not that week, historically speaking.

There were three US CV's in the Pacific Basin on December 7th, 1941. We know exactly where they were and what they were doing that weekend. There were also more than 60 US Subs in the Pacific Basin at the time. We know exactly where they were and what they were doing as well. So if you can postulate one of those CV's being somewhere else, doing something else, and running into KB---then it is equally possible that KB would run into/over 20 US Subs along the way. Did anyone suggest that possibility? Nope. On the morning of the 7th, there were more B-17's flying North of Oahu than there were US CV's in the Pacific. Did anyone suggest the possibility of PH getting one to three hours of warning of the incoming airstrike because the B-17's had been blown a bit farther West than they had allowed for? Nope. There were dozens of Allied Steamships "tramping" all over the Pacific Basin that weekend. Did anyone but me suggest that running into one of them would have been much more likely? Nope. You say "Those ships did exercise NE of Midway, NW of Hawaii. Just not that week, historically speaking. " Well, the ships of Kido Butai had spent years operating and docking and training in the Western Pacific and the China Sea. "Just not that week, historically speaking". What struck me was how eager everyone was to sieze on this one more unlikely "speculation" while ignoring or rejecting others ranging from equally unlikely to much more likely. And when I pointed this out, just how eager everyone was to jump on me for saying how unlikely it was.

[mlees]

I did not reject any of the other "what if's" you have mentioned. (That is, tramp steamers, subs, bombers, etc, sighting the KB.)

Now, here is why I focused on a US CV:

The original poster, in post #4, setup the "what if a US CV sights the KB?". He did not mention subs, bombers, merchies, or Godzilla. I restricted my answer to the question as asked.

If you were to ask me, is it more likely that a tramp steamer sights the KB?

My answer would be yes, absolutely. And if he lived long enough to get a message off, I would speculate that it would be received with some scepticism, at first, by Pearl. After all, the steamer is a civilian. "What does he know of ship ID? Next he'll say he saw mermaids! Yuk Yuk!" But later on in the day, some search planes will be sent out.

[ChezDaJez]

What struck me was how eager everyone was to sieze on this one more unlikely "speculation" while ignoring or rejecting others ranging from equally unlikely to much more likely. And when I pointed this out, just how eager everyone was to jump on me for saying how unlikely it was.

I don't recall anyone rejecting any other hypothesis beyond Godizilla, the Nimitz and little green men junk. If someone had mentioned a sub or an aircraft sighting, I would have spoken about that. But the original hypothesis was "what if KB encountered a US CV?" That's all I answered to. As I said before it could have been a rowboat with a radio, doesn't matter.

I disagree with mlees on the possibility of encountering a steamer. IMO that would have been far less likely given how far out of the merchant shipping lanes KB was than encountering a US naval vessel.

"What ifs" can be a fun exercise but if your thinking is so rigid as to not allow for the possibility of a ship or TG having a different set of orders than was historically issued, then what's the point? That's the whole meaning of a "what if." What if they did "Y" instead of "X", not "they couldn't do "Y" because they were doing "X." Kind of hard to consider the "what if" in that case.

The thing that got me, Mike, was that you chose to just not disagree. You chose to ridicule and to label the hypothesis a JFB conspiracy. What's up with that?

Chez

[Speedysteve]

ORIGINAL: YankeeAirRat

ORIGINAL: Speedy

Hi all,

Does anyone know how close any ship was in coming near to KB during it's voyage? Transports? Steamers? Subs? Neutrals etc?

Steven

Most evidence states that they steamed outside of normal shipping channels between the US and Japan. There was an article in the December 1991 issue of Naval History published by the USNI, about the USS Threasher meeting some of the screening ships for the KB on the evening of the 6th. The article was written, if my faulty memory serves me right, by the engineering officer on the Threasher. He remembers they were hooked by an anchor or some sort of other large hook and the Japanese ship attempted to bring them up. This was after sighting the KB. The captain was debating what to do, ie whether to go in and take pictures or shadow and send of sighting reports, when the tug of war started and after breaking free the ship beat feet back to PH. By the time that they got back was a few hours after the radio traffic came through about the attack on PH. The thing that the article made clear was that the US and the Japanese were operating on the same sort of terms as the US and Soviets did during the Cold War. In that they would harrass each other and maybe trade paint, lodge formal diplomatic complaints and that was about it. Most everyone was thinking of when the fleet would go to war against the Germans.

Thanks for the info[8D]

[wworld7]

ORIGINAL: ChezDaJez

I don't recall anyone rejecting any other hypothesis beyond Godizilla
Chez

yeah, but if the USS Langley is cruising with a wing of Mothra's than Godzilla is toast.

Flipper

[anarchyintheuk]

IMO sending a carrier group to exercise ne of Midway after receiving a war warning isn't reasonable in any respect. Parking your planes in the middle of the runway and failing to maintain an adequate aerial search around your major naval base isn't very reasonable either. Makes for a good 'what if'.

We've had the godzilla v. mothra argument before. No way would one, or even a wing of mothras, kick a giant flame-spewing reptile's arse.

Edited for kicks.

[Rainerle]

[:D]
Now just imagine the PH Strike had never happened and somebody tried it in a WITP Game
[:D]

[ChezDaJez]

Now just imagine the PH Strike had never happened and somebody tried it in a WITP Game

I can hear the howls of indignation now!!![:D][:D][:D]

Chez

[mlees]

Now just imagine the PH Strike had never happened and somebody tried it in a WITP Game.

There would be cries for a nerf. After all, no air dropped torps could run in such a shallow harbor.