Desperate or Brilliant? RUPD3658 don't read

[KDonovan]

after consulting with the wife and getting no where, i've decided to come to the forum for some help on a situation that i got brewing.

In my PBEM against Tom, i'm getting my butt whipped. Its only Jan 2nd, 1942 and here's the strategic situation..
- all of PI has fell
- mayala will fall in 3 weeks
- burma will fall in 3 weeks
- ambiona and kenderi have fallen
- most of bornea is gone except Balkipan
- rabual has fallen
- wake has fallen
- in China, Yenen has fallen (but i have taken Nanking)
- only java, sumatra, timor stand in the way

at this rate, i'll doubt i'll be able to hold India, as he should be able to invade so soon that the 2nd UK div won't be in theatre yet, leaving only the 18th. so it looking pretty bleak.

anyways, i feel the need to strike back hard to slow down the pace of this advance. And i may have a chance near Rabual...

spotted at Rabual was the CV Kaga. There are probably more CV's but i'm not sure how many. I believe that after Dec 7th, the KB split into 2 TF's....so my best guess is this TF consists of 3 CV's, 1 CVL, 1 BB, 2 CA, 8 DD.

12 hexes away from Rabual, unspotted to the south i have quite a force gathered. I have all 3 of my CV's with escorts. Accompanying them are 3 surface groups totalling 1 BB, 1 BC, 7 CA's, 6 CL's, and numerous DD's. The BB's are the Repulse and Prince of Whales.

Other things to consider is Rabual is currently on level 3 AF, so betty's won't be a factor, but i'm sure Truk has plenty. Also, due to a game bug, all my carrier pilots have exp of 80-85.

anyways is there anyway for me to exploit this and take out that jap carrier force?? Forcing a surface action would be ideal, as i wouldn't want to risk any of my carriers, and CV's don't react to surface groups. The only way i can force a surface action would be to hope he doesn't budge from Rabual next turn (we are playing 2 day turns). Is this realistic assumption? They just arrived there, and i'm thinking they are gonna be used to escort a coming invasion of Port Moresby.

So is it justified risk to try for a big score, considering my very weak position, or should i just retreat and wait for Late 42'??

here's a screen shot

[Terminus]

Oooh, dangerous waters there. I wouldn't do it, if it were me... If there's a potential for 3+ Jap CV's, he actually overmatches you, including Zero bonus and everything. Let it go...

[Drex]

Go for the transports at Munda then get otta Dodge. With two day turns, he might wind up behind you on the next turn. Are you sure you're unspotted? Its hard to resist the urge to use thos CVs but I think its too soon to challenge the big boys.

[KDonovan]

Are you sure you're unspotted?

pretty sure, nothing came up on the operations report that showed i would've been spotted

[dtravel]

ORIGINAL: KDonovan
spotted at Rabual was the CV Kaga. There are probably more CV's but i'm not sure how many. I believe that after Dec 7th, the KB split into 2 TF's....so my best guess is this TF consists of 3 CV's, 1 CVL, 1 BB, 2 CA, 8 DD.

12 hexes away from Rabual, unspotted to the south i have quite a force gathered. I have all 3 of my CV's with escorts. Accompanying them are 3 surface groups totalling 1 BB, 1 BC, 7 CA's, 6 CL's, and numerous DD's. The BB's are the Repulse and Prince of Whales.

Other things to consider is Rabual is currently on level 3 AF, so betty's won't be a factor, but i'm sure Truk has plenty. Also, due to a game bug, all my carrier pilots have exp of 80-85.

anyways is there anyway for me to exploit this and take out that jap carrier force?? Forcing a surface action would be ideal, as i wouldn't want to risk any of my carriers, and CV's don't react to surface groups. The only way i can force a surface action would be to hope he doesn't budge from Rabual next turn (we are playing 2 day turns). Is this realistic assumption? They just arrived there, and i'm thinking they are gonna be used to escort a coming invasion of Port Moresby.

So is it justified risk to try for a big score, considering my very weak position, or should i just retreat and wait for Late 42'??

Short answer: No.

First, Betties can (and will) fly from a level 3 airfield. They will have a shorter range, but their range is already so long that won't be a factor here. They may or may not carry torpedoes but again that doesn't really matter, your ships can't survive the number of bomb hits the high experience Japanese pilots will score.

Second, his fighters will absolutely shred anything you can fly. His pilots have a 20 to 30 point advantage in skill, are flying a plane that in the game is rated massively better than anything you have and at this point have a programmed bonus on top of that. Any attempt at a carrier vs. carrier battle at this point in the war will simply sink your carriers for no return. Later in the war, after the Japanese airgroups have been attritioned against land-based air and flak, you will have a chance. As long as you outnumber them.

Third, you won't be able to get a surface engagement against the IJN carriers. The game works in a way that makes an intercept like that almost impossible. Even assuming that your ships would survive the air attacks during the approach.

My advice would be to throw expendable land-based air units against them. The squadrons you use will get decimated but you will kill a few of his planes and pilots and you may get lucky and score one or two bomb hits in the process. It won't stop him but realistically you're not trying to stop him. You are just trying to throw sand into his gears and keep doing so over a long period of time.

[Big B]

ORIGINAL: Drex

Go for the transports at Munda then get otta Dodge. With two day turns, he might wind up behind you on the next turn. Are you sure you're unspotted? Its hard to resist the urge to use thos CVs but I think its too soon to challenge the big boys.

I agree, the transports will help train up your aircrews to a fine edge.

By the way - that is No Computer Glitch that your Cv airgroups are all 80-85 experience, that is standard for Lex, Sara, 'Big E', and Yorktown. (Hornet will come in about 75-78, and Wasp around 70.)

Anyway, getting back to your problem, I wouldn't go after the KB right now. The risk is too great, where the game tells you "You See Two or Three Carriers"...it more than likely ain't telling you the whole truth.

Even though he is running wild right now - be patient, he can't be everywhere at once and he WILL quickly over-extend himself.

The only thing he can do to really hurt you for a long time is to sink your CVs in a lopsided ass-kicking...don't play into that.

Make him nose around your strongest remaining airfields looking for you, and then waste his irreplacable 90 exp aircrews in attrition with your massed land based air units...then use your CVs to engage the KB.

My advice anyway...

B

[aletoledo]

there are too many chances later on to rush into things. I play japanese all the time and he's not in any enormous lead at the moment. there is a full year to go and its still very hard to reach 4:1 for the autovictory. if he loses 2-3 capital ships before '43, that is all you'll really need to stop him. of course that means you can't be losing those capital ships either.

though the situation does look nice, so I would probably risk it to do a carrier strike for one day only. murphy's law will say that it'll be cloud covered, so remember that its only a one day affair, rain or shine. the most you'll probably do anyway is make him pause and cover his forces better, so don't expect you'll accomplish a great victory with it.

[Nemo121]

Run. At this stage risking your scarcest most capable platforms capable of power projection into areas defended by LBA and the only forces ( short of massively developed airfields with a large stack of allied bombers) which have a hope of blunting KB outside of the range of said airfield/LBA complexes ( which are rare in the first few months of the game) is foolish.

The return on your investment is simply not there. There WILL come a time over the next few months when the Japanese attack something you feel you MUST defend and that will be the time to sacrifice your carriers in return for inflicting damage/sinkings on KB such that the invasion it is covering fails.


In short I think the main issue is that you appear to be giving in to your desire to inflict damage. At the grand strategical/national policy objective level emotion is an encumberance and it shouldn't have any bearing on your choice of operations. If you undertake this operation you will be doing so because you "want" to strike back and not because your objective risk/benefit analysis tells you that this warrants the risks being run.

Sure you may get away with it this time but it will form a bad habit and eventually this will cost you. I speak here as someone who has run even more rampant than your opponent. In my game it is 21st January and China is largely doomed ( at least 2/3rd of the Chinese army is cut off from supply and only the north-westernmost 3 bases being safe), the DEI is mine, Singapore is contained, Burma is mine ( except for two sieges at Rangoon and Taung Giyi) and when Manila falls is purely a question of time. I have about 12,500 points vs 6300 ( but when Manila and Singapore fall his total will drop to circa 3,000 while mine should increase to 15 or 16,000 ). The one bright spot for my opponent is that he has managed to keep his carriers safe despite 2 major operations to hunt them down. To do this he not only sacrificed over 20 surface warships ( mostly DDs, DMs and DMSes) but also a major troop convoy ( about 10 transports) and all the troops they contained ( 1 RCT and 2 FA Regiments) when he had the choice of engaging KB or abandoning these ships and troops to their dooms.

In both cases he would have played right into my hands if he had engaged and if he had no carriers left I'd be planning to invade Pearl a few months earlier than currently scheduled. So, speaking as someone in a somewhat similar situation to the Japanese player here I'd love to see you risk those CVs for such insignificant gains. Any CV you lose now will be one less CV you have to stave off the invasion of Pearl Harbour or the south-central pacific and those objectives REALLY matter.

[patrickl]

Hi,

No worth the effort. You will lose your carriers.[8|]

[KDonovan]

thanks everyone....i will run. Think i'll send some DD's though into the solomns to hit some transports, hopefully his carriers will chase and waste precious fuel and accumulate system damage

my orginal plans was a massive bombardment (land and air) of Rabual, to flatten the airfield, then follow up with constant Land base bombers raids to deny the japanese use of the airfield. When the carriers were spotted, i had to give up those plan, but then came my urge to attack them with everything i got. Luckly you guys talked some sense into me. Think i'll head down to Auckland to repair my system damage and refuel

[KDonovan]

By the way - that is No Computer Glitch that your Cv airgroups are all 80-85 experience, that is standard for Lex, Sara, 'Big E', and Yorktown. (Hornet will come in about 75-78, and Wasp around 70.)

i thought there was a "get pilot" bug??. There must be something, cause on day 1 of the war, all my US squadrens filled out with 70+ exp pilots. Maybe it only effects army units

here's a P36 squadren that has been at training 0% since the start

[Big B]

Now THAT looks like a glitch....

ORIGINAL: KDonovan

By the way - that is No Computer Glitch that your Cv airgroups are all 80-85 experience, that is standard for Lex, Sara, 'Big E', and Yorktown. (Hornet will come in about 75-78, and Wasp around 70.)

i thought there was a "get pilot" bug??. There must be something, cause on day 1 of the war, all my US squadrens filled out with 70+ exp pilots. Maybe it only effects army units

here's a P36 squadren that has been at training 0% since the start

[Belce]

In the screenshot that is a 39 plane squadron with 25 pilots, all of those pilots are the original pilots with that squadron, no new pilots have been added or very few. I don't see how that is a problem.

[ny59giants]

My rules as the Allies, who I have played only this far, when it comes to CV vs CV battles.
None while the Zero bonus is very high. [:-]
None until the fighters expand to 36 planes. [:D]
Wait until the Avengers become available, unless your playing Nik's Mod. The range of only 2 will pretty much cut down any possibility of success by TB's. [:(]
The AA of American ships until after the 10/42 upgrade makes facing Jap KB or highly experienced planes not a nice thing.

As a side note, until American CV's get some experience attacking lightly held places, they seem to be very uncoordinated in their attacks. I usually try easy targets to get them to attack how I want. Anyone else notice this or is it just me??[&:]

[Oznoyng]

I would not count on the intel being correct about the number of CV's. Without incontrovertible proof that he split KB, I would hold off, especially since you only have 3 CV's. I think the USN can win a carrier battle in early 42, but not when he has 6 CV's to your 3 AND he is in range of his LBA. Winning in early 42 requires that he split KB or that he enters range of your LBA.

[bradfordkay]

" Winning in early 42 requires that he split KB or that he enters range of your LBA. "

I'm one of those who is of the opinion that winning a CV battle as allies in early '42 requires that he split the KB and enters range of your LBA.

You do not want to entertain the idea of a carrier battle with an intact KB within range of his LBA. At least not in early '42.

EDIT: I agree with oznoyng about not counting on the intel count of his carriers. Until your search planes name spotted carriers elsewhere (and be careful to know the names of the CVLs/CVEs so as not to get confused), expect the KB to be intact.

[timtom]

ORIGINAL: Big B

Now THAT looks like a glitch....

ORIGINAL: KDonovan

By the way - that is No Computer Glitch that your Cv airgroups are all 80-85 experience, that is standard for Lex, Sara, 'Big E', and Yorktown. (Hornet will come in about 75-78, and Wasp around 70.)

i thought there was a "get pilot" bug??. There must be something, cause on day 1 of the war, all my US squadrens filled out with 70+ exp pilots. Maybe it only effects army units

here's a P36 squadren that has been at training 0% since the start

Nik posted an easy solution to this problem last week or so. Can't be asked to dig it out, sorry.

[KDonovan]

yeah i saw the solution, somthing about removing some file. But unfortunately you can't do it mid game....only works before you start the PBEM. I asked Tom if he wanted to restart after i saw this in turn 1, but he didn't want to set up another turn one, since it took him so long.

for those that question, "that this may be the entire KB", its not, as i have indeed spotted the Hiryu, Shokaku, Zuikaku, and Ryujo cruising around the DEI. But i'm still not gonna risk a straight up fight, and still take the advice of retreat, as i don't have any LBA to help me out

[saj42]

Can you time your CVs to arrive off the Solomon's on the second day of your 2 day turns - get one day of attacks on those invasion TFs - and then retire to Aukland? Can you get into strike range of Lunga/Tulagi and still be 15 hexes from Rabual ?(Betty torpedo range)

your oponent will know your CVs are then in SOPAC area, but fake a eastwards withdrawal before heading for Aukland

[String]

CHAAARGE!!!![:D]

I would've gone for it. atleast judging from the information you posted.