How Many of you have dropped "The Bomb?"
Moderators: Joel Billings, wdolson, Don Bowen, mogami
RE: How Many of you have dropped "The Bomb?"
Hi, Thanks Nemo for fixing my math. Here is a close up of the Hiroshima "hex" I had to cut it down because it was too large to fit in the upload.
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I'm not retreating, I'm attacking in a different direction!
RE: How Many of you have dropped "The Bomb?"
So does any ome know exactly what was the industrial out put of Hiroshima and Nagasaki AFTER they were nuked?
I am not beyond reason - but it is obvious that those two cities were taken out of the war after being Atom bombed.
Just two of those bombings were enough to make the Japanese seek peace.
In WitP the damage is not near great enough to force that decision.
B
I am not beyond reason - but it is obvious that those two cities were taken out of the war after being Atom bombed.
Just two of those bombings were enough to make the Japanese seek peace.
In WitP the damage is not near great enough to force that decision.
B
RE: How Many of you have dropped "The Bomb?"
Just two of those bombings were enough to make the Japanese seek peace.
Sorry, I'm not trying to be contrary but I believe this is erroneous. The two bombings can be demonstrated not to have made the Japanese seek peace. The threat of further bombings, along with the not-so-subtle hint that a future bomb might just land on Hirohito's head, made the Japanese seek peace.
The damage caused by the two bombs and the demonstrable inability of the Japanese Army and Naval Air arms to guarantee to stop EVERY SINGLE B-29 which approached the homeland made it virtually certain that, in future, the only limit on American ability to drop atomic bombs on Japanese cities would be their production of these weapons. Since the Japanese didn't have good intel on their production they had to assume a worst case scenario. Armed with the worst case scenario of future bombings against which there was no possibility of defence ( there was at least some ability to attrit firebombing raids) to argue around those who lived in the real world AND the threat this all posed to Hirohito himself to argue around all but the most militaristic of officers this combination gave the groups which wanted a negotiated settlement the ability to push for this.
The damage done by the two A-bomb attacks did not in and of itself make the Japanese seek peace. It was more complicated than that although the damage done and inability to prevent it in the future did certainly strengthen the hand of the groups which wanted a negotiated settlement.
John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.
Well, that's that settled then.
RE: How Many of you have dropped "The Bomb?"
Hi, The Japanese had been trying to surrender for 2 months before the bombs were dropped. It is true that the bombs finally allowed the gov of Japan to over rule military hardliners who were preventing the surrender.
Japan would have been forced to surrender without the bombs. They made the actual event occur sooner.
However just as important was the Soviet invasion of manchuria.
The USA had been holding out for unconditional surrender. we used the bomb to get Japan to accept this (we had refused to listen to other options)
But when the Soviets entered the war we dropped the unconditional clause and accepted the surrender. (The condition we allowed was Japan kept Hirohito as a figure head of state)
Japan would have been forced to surrender without the bombs. They made the actual event occur sooner.
However just as important was the Soviet invasion of manchuria.
The USA had been holding out for unconditional surrender. we used the bomb to get Japan to accept this (we had refused to listen to other options)
But when the Soviets entered the war we dropped the unconditional clause and accepted the surrender. (The condition we allowed was Japan kept Hirohito as a figure head of state)
I'm not retreating, I'm attacking in a different direction!
RE: How Many of you have dropped "The Bomb?"
Hi!
FWIW, I don't think there's any question that Hiroshima and Nagasaki were devastated by the nuclear attacks, and were pretty much knocked out of the war. The following quotes are from "The Atomic Bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki," by the U.S. Army's "Manhattan Engineering District" (aka Manhattan Project), which you can find at the Yale University 'Avalan Project'.
I think Mogami's point should be well-taken. In a game on the scale of WITP I think the issue isn't so much the industrial capacity of Hiroshima, but the industrial capacity of the entire hex, of which Hiroshima (or any other city) is just a part. It's an important part, but even a cursory examination of Mogami's map (see earlier post) a fair number of smaller towns and cities (such as Kure) within the hex.
For WITP, hexes with 60 miles from center to center have an area of about 2338 sq. miles (the area of a hexagon is (3/2) * sqrt(3) * length of side of hexagon; the length of the side of a hexagon is half the distance to the center, or 30 miles for WITP. The atomic bomb destroyed or severely damaged buildings in a 43 sq. mile area of Nagasaki, including damage from fires that spread after the explosion. That's a big chunk of Nagasaki, but only a few percent of the entire hex.
WRT what persuaded the Japanese to surrender, there is some evidence this decision was made in response to the Soviet Declaration of War and invasion of Manchuria, and that the detonation of the atomic bomb over Nagasaki merely served to confirm the decision. See for example John Toland, The Rising Sun.
My $0.02.
Pablo
FWIW, I don't think there's any question that Hiroshima and Nagasaki were devastated by the nuclear attacks, and were pretty much knocked out of the war. The following quotes are from "The Atomic Bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki," by the U.S. Army's "Manhattan Engineering District" (aka Manhattan Project), which you can find at the Yale University 'Avalan Project'.
In HiroshimaIn Nagasaki:
- 135,000 people were casualties (dead and injured) out of an estimated population of 225,000 [about 60% of the population], not counting military personnel or slave laborers. [NB: The Hiroshima police estimated about 130,000 total casualties]
- Over 60,000 of 90,000 buildings were destroyed or severely damaged by the atomic bomb; this figure represents over 67% of the city's structures.
- All utilities and transportation services were disrupted for varying lengths of time. In general however services were restored about as rapidly as they could be used by the depleted population. Through railroad service was in order in Hiroshima on 8 August, and electric power was available in most of the surviving parts on 7 August, the day after the bombing. [NB: "surviving parts" are in the remaining 33% of the city not severely damaged or destroyed]
- The reservoir of the city was not damaged, being nearly 2 miles from X. However, 70,000 breaks in water pipes in buildings and dwellings were caused by the blast and fire effects.
- Almost everything up to about one mile from X was completely destroyed, except for a small number (about 50) of heavily reinforced concrete buildings, most of which were specially designed to withstand earthquake shock, which were not collapsed by the blast; most of these buildings had their interiors completely gutted, and all windows, doors, sashes, and frames ripped out.
- 14,000 or 27% of 52,000 residences were completely destroyed and 5,40O, or 10% were half destroyed. Only 12% remained undamaged. This destruction was limited by the layout of the city.
- The atomic explosion ... affected an over-all area of approximately 42.9 square miles of which about 8.5 square miles were water and only about 9.8 square miles were built up, the remainder being partially settled. Approximately 36% of the built up areas were seriously damaged. The area most severely damaged had an average radius of about 1 mile, and covered about 2.9 square miles of which 2.4 were built up.
I think Mogami's point should be well-taken. In a game on the scale of WITP I think the issue isn't so much the industrial capacity of Hiroshima, but the industrial capacity of the entire hex, of which Hiroshima (or any other city) is just a part. It's an important part, but even a cursory examination of Mogami's map (see earlier post) a fair number of smaller towns and cities (such as Kure) within the hex.
For WITP, hexes with 60 miles from center to center have an area of about 2338 sq. miles (the area of a hexagon is (3/2) * sqrt(3) * length of side of hexagon; the length of the side of a hexagon is half the distance to the center, or 30 miles for WITP. The atomic bomb destroyed or severely damaged buildings in a 43 sq. mile area of Nagasaki, including damage from fires that spread after the explosion. That's a big chunk of Nagasaki, but only a few percent of the entire hex.
WRT what persuaded the Japanese to surrender, there is some evidence this decision was made in response to the Soviet Declaration of War and invasion of Manchuria, and that the detonation of the atomic bomb over Nagasaki merely served to confirm the decision. See for example John Toland, The Rising Sun.
My $0.02.
Pablo
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FeurerKrieg
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RE: How Many of you have dropped "The Bomb?"
I also think the level of points scored from the bomb is a good simulator of the politcal effect of the A-bomb. A couple of those bombs could move the score switftly to the end game, right? (I have no idea what type of scores are seen in the end game).
RE: How Many of you have dropped "The Bomb?"
ORIGINAL: Feurer Krieg
I also think the level of points scored from the bomb is a good simulator of the politcal effect of the A-bomb. A couple of those bombs could move the score switftly to the end game, right? (I have no idea what type of scores are seen in the end game).
Hi, In my test conventional city bombing had scored 20k points in 5 months. The bomb scored 4k in 1 mission.
I'm not retreating, I'm attacking in a different direction!
RE: How Many of you have dropped "The Bomb?"
ORIGINAL: Mogami
ORIGINAL: Feurer Krieg
I also think the level of points scored from the bomb is a good simulator of the politcal effect of the A-bomb. A couple of those bombs could move the score switftly to the end game, right? (I have no idea what type of scores are seen in the end game).
Hi, In my test conventional city bombing had scored 20k points in 5 months. The bomb scored 4k in 1 mission.
What was your total victory point score when your game ended?
RE: How Many of you have dropped "The Bomb?"
ORIGINAL: Nemo121
BTW just to clear up what Mogami intended to say... I'm sure he meant to write "3600 square miles or 60 miles squared". This is the area of one hex.
To put that into perspective the bomb at Nagasaki damaged by the most generous estimate 42.9 square miles of that "hex" ( some of which was water and only a small portion of which was actually heavily built up...
So, we are talking about a bit over 1.2% of the total hex area effected by the A-bomb. So I hope it is now clear why a large city would not be as completely devastated by a nuke as many people here seem to think.
The point your missing Nemo is:
The atomic explosion over Nagasaki affected an over-all area of approximately 42.9 square miles of which about 8.5 square miles were water and only about 9.8 square miles were built up, the remainder being partially settled.
You are not taking into account how relatively small an are of a hex is that is built up city...where the heavy industry is concentrated.
Heavy industry is not spread evenly over an entire hex - it is concentrated in cities, especially the older industrial age cities.
Not to mention, just who is going to be left to go back to work the next day given all the dead, maimed, traumatized, and general disruption?
Unless we assume that factories and industrial production weren't in cities - but I don't believe that was the case in the 1940s, and especially in a country like Japan where suitable land is at a premium.
Maybe I've got it all wrong, but it still seems to me that Atomic weapons are underrated in effect in this game.
B
RE: How Many of you have dropped "The Bomb?"
Slightly OT:
Results of Operation Ivy, Mike Shot, Eniwetok Atoll, October 1952.
10-MT estimated weapon yield, ground burst. Before and after photos.
Crater is 6000 feet wide (approx 1850 meters?)...
Results of Operation Ivy, Mike Shot, Eniwetok Atoll, October 1952.
10-MT estimated weapon yield, ground burst. Before and after photos.
Crater is 6000 feet wide (approx 1850 meters?)...
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RE: How Many of you have dropped "The Bomb?"
Very interesting and educational thread.
I haven't been to Hiroshima or Nagasaki, but I have been to Tokyo, Kyoto, Osaka, and other cities in Japan. Admittedly the country is more densely populated now than it was then, but even now there are concentrations of industry in some areas and concentrations of non-industrial things (residences, suburbs, even rural areas) elsewhere in a given "hex". Presumably a Bomb Attack would target those industrial concentrations in a "hex" rather than the suburban or rural areas, would it not? So I'm still inclined to agree with Bib B that destroying a few square miles in the middle of any of the "hexes" I visited would do more than 15% damage to the industrial capacity of that area.
I haven't been to Hiroshima or Nagasaki, but I have been to Tokyo, Kyoto, Osaka, and other cities in Japan. Admittedly the country is more densely populated now than it was then, but even now there are concentrations of industry in some areas and concentrations of non-industrial things (residences, suburbs, even rural areas) elsewhere in a given "hex". Presumably a Bomb Attack would target those industrial concentrations in a "hex" rather than the suburban or rural areas, would it not? So I'm still inclined to agree with Bib B that destroying a few square miles in the middle of any of the "hexes" I visited would do more than 15% damage to the industrial capacity of that area.
RE: How Many of you have dropped "The Bomb?"
From US Strategic Bombing Survey:
Hiroshima - 'Approximately 60,000 to 70,000 people were killed, and 50,000 were injured. Of approximately 90,000 buildings in the city, 65,000 were rendered unusable and almost all the remainder received at least light superficial damage. The underground utilities of the city were undamaged except where they crossed bridges over the rivers cutting through the city. All of the small factories in the center of the city were destroyed. However, the big plants on the periphery of the city were almost completely undamaged and 94 percent of their workers unhurt. These factories accounted for 74 percent of the industrial production of the city. It is estimated that they could have resumed substantially normal production within 30 days of the bombing, had the war continued. The railroads running through the city were repaired for the resumption of through traffic on 8 August, 2 days after the attack.'
Nagasaki
'Approximately 40,000 persons were killed or missing and a like number injured. Of the 52,000 residential buildings in Nagasaki 14,000 were totally destroyed and a further 5,400 badly damaged. Ninety-six percent of the industrial output of Nagasaki was concentrated in the large plants of the Mitsubishi Co. which completely dominated the town. The arms plant and the steel works were located within the area of primary damage. It is estimated that 58 percent of the yen value of the arms plant and 78 percent of the value of the steel works were destroyed. The main plant of the Mitsubishi electric works was on the periphery of the area of greatest destruction. Approximately 25 percent of its value was destroyed. The dockyard, the largest industrial establishment in Nagasaki and one of the three plants previously damaged by high-explosive bombs, was located down the bay from the explosion. It suffered virtually no new damage. The Mitsubishi plants were all operating, prior to the attack, at a fraction of their capacity because of a shortage of raw materials. Had the war continued, and had the raw material situation been such as to warrant their restoration, it is estimated that the dockyard could have been in a position to produce at 80 percent of its full capacity within 3 to 4 months; that the steel works would. have required a year to get into substantial production; that the electric works could have resumed some production within 2 months and been back at capacity within 6 months; and that restoration of the arms plant to 60 to 70 percent of former capacity would have required 15 months.'
To me it seems that A-bomb are portreyed in game well...main value is in gaining strategic points that can lead to end of war. In reality it was the same, effect of A-bombs on japanese war effectivness was neglible.
Hiroshima - 'Approximately 60,000 to 70,000 people were killed, and 50,000 were injured. Of approximately 90,000 buildings in the city, 65,000 were rendered unusable and almost all the remainder received at least light superficial damage. The underground utilities of the city were undamaged except where they crossed bridges over the rivers cutting through the city. All of the small factories in the center of the city were destroyed. However, the big plants on the periphery of the city were almost completely undamaged and 94 percent of their workers unhurt. These factories accounted for 74 percent of the industrial production of the city. It is estimated that they could have resumed substantially normal production within 30 days of the bombing, had the war continued. The railroads running through the city were repaired for the resumption of through traffic on 8 August, 2 days after the attack.'
Nagasaki
'Approximately 40,000 persons were killed or missing and a like number injured. Of the 52,000 residential buildings in Nagasaki 14,000 were totally destroyed and a further 5,400 badly damaged. Ninety-six percent of the industrial output of Nagasaki was concentrated in the large plants of the Mitsubishi Co. which completely dominated the town. The arms plant and the steel works were located within the area of primary damage. It is estimated that 58 percent of the yen value of the arms plant and 78 percent of the value of the steel works were destroyed. The main plant of the Mitsubishi electric works was on the periphery of the area of greatest destruction. Approximately 25 percent of its value was destroyed. The dockyard, the largest industrial establishment in Nagasaki and one of the three plants previously damaged by high-explosive bombs, was located down the bay from the explosion. It suffered virtually no new damage. The Mitsubishi plants were all operating, prior to the attack, at a fraction of their capacity because of a shortage of raw materials. Had the war continued, and had the raw material situation been such as to warrant their restoration, it is estimated that the dockyard could have been in a position to produce at 80 percent of its full capacity within 3 to 4 months; that the steel works would. have required a year to get into substantial production; that the electric works could have resumed some production within 2 months and been back at capacity within 6 months; and that restoration of the arms plant to 60 to 70 percent of former capacity would have required 15 months.'
To me it seems that A-bomb are portreyed in game well...main value is in gaining strategic points that can lead to end of war. In reality it was the same, effect of A-bombs on japanese war effectivness was neglible.
RE: How Many of you have dropped "The Bomb?"
I forgot mention the source
http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/AAF/USS ... tml#teotab
http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/AAF/USS ... tml#teotab
RE: How Many of you have dropped "The Bomb?"
ORIGINAL: Arkady
To me it seems that A-bomb are portreyed in game well...main value is in gaining strategic points that can lead to end of war. In reality it was the same, effect of A-bombs on japanese war effectivness was neglible.
Interesting, I cannot agree it was negligable. Perhaps it would be better represented with doubling the amount damaged (so it is repairable), and raising the victory point allocation to make it politiclly critical.
It is estimated that they could have resumed substantially normal production within 30 days of the bombing, had the war continued.
But here is the critical phrase above "had the war continued" which it did not. After Nagasaki the war ended immediatly (with a cease fire against the western allies - not the USSR) there is a reason for that and IMO it had nothing to do with Russia taking back Manchuria.
Psycologically the bomb was devestating which is why the Japanese stopped looking for an end to the war on terms and agreed to unconditional surrender.
Therefore I think the victory points awarded are also too low to represent this shock.
B
RE: How Many of you have dropped "The Bomb?"
ORIGINAL: Big B
ORIGINAL: Mogami
ORIGINAL: Feurer Krieg
I also think the level of points scored from the bomb is a good simulator of the politcal effect of the A-bomb. A couple of those bombs could move the score switftly to the end game, right? (I have no idea what type of scores are seen in the end game).
Hi, In my test conventional city bombing had scored 20k points in 5 months. The bomb scored 4k in 1 mission.
What was your total victory point score when your game ended?
Hi, In the first test the starting score was Japan 31k Allies 18k I had no landcombat or naval combat or air combat only bombing using city attacks (no port or airfield attacks)
Bombing scored 24k in 5 months
In test 2 (currently underway) I let the AI control Japan so there is air comabt et al. Current date is Mar 19 1945 Score is Japan 33k Allies 28k I have only flown 2 city attacks against home Islands because I wanted to wait to secure Iwo Jima (done) and knock Japans airforces about first before starting bombing missions. (Japan began scenario with 6k aircraft she has lost 6953 to date)(The 2 city attacks scored 1k)
So to force surrender on historic date I need to score around 38k points in 5 months (7.6k per month)
Part of this will be a reduction in Japanese score as bases run out of supply. Part of it will be combat (air/land/sea) but the bulk of it will be through city attacks on Home Islands.
I can either post bombing results to this thread or start a new one. Would you like a new test PBEM you handling Japan?
I'm not retreating, I'm attacking in a different direction!
RE: How Many of you have dropped "The Bomb?"
Posting the results would be interesting, ... I'm not up for a new PBEM right now (but thanks for the offer[;)])
One last note - and it's very minor...
I was a little surprised and disapointed that dropping the bomb (and ushering in the age of nuclear warfare) was so anti-climatic, just a quick combat report - blink and you would miss it.
I don't usually go for this kind of thing, but in this case I thought some sort of graphic, or quick animation would have been appropraite..
Oh well, just another day in the world of mass carnage.
B
One last note - and it's very minor...
I was a little surprised and disapointed that dropping the bomb (and ushering in the age of nuclear warfare) was so anti-climatic, just a quick combat report - blink and you would miss it.
I don't usually go for this kind of thing, but in this case I thought some sort of graphic, or quick animation would have been appropraite..
Oh well, just another day in the world of mass carnage.
B
ORIGINAL: Mogami
ORIGINAL: Big B
ORIGINAL: Mogami
Hi, In my test conventional city bombing had scored 20k points in 5 months. The bomb scored 4k in 1 mission.
What was your total victory point score when your game ended?
Hi, In the first test the starting score was Japan 31k Allies 18k I had no landcombat or naval combat or air combat only bombing using city attacks (no port or airfield attacks)
Bombing scored 24k in 5 months
In test 2 (currently underway) I let the AI control Japan so there is air comabt et al. Current date is Mar 19 1945 Score is Japan 33k Allies 28k I have only flown 2 city attacks against home Islands because I wanted to wait to secure Iwo Jima (done) and knock Japans airforces about first before starting bombing missions. (Japan began scenario with 6k aircraft she has lost 6953 to date)(The 2 city attacks scored 1k)
So to force surrender on historic date I need to score around 38k points in 5 months (7.6k per month)
Part of this will be a reduction in Japanese score as bases run out of supply. Part of it will be combat (air/land/sea) but the bulk of it will be through city attacks on Home Islands.
I can either post bombing results to this thread or start a new one. Would you like a new test PBEM you handling Japan?
RE: How Many of you have dropped "The Bomb?"
Hi, It's now 24 March and I've flwon 3 city attacks. All agaisnt the oil production in Aikita. It's now 2 undamaged remaining out of 100. Next target oil in Niigata. (100 undamaged)
since I have cut off Japan from oil imports from SRA I'm going to reduce the production in Home Islands (no oil will prevent resource being converted to supply no matter how many resource points are stockpiled or produced. )
since I have cut off Japan from oil imports from SRA I'm going to reduce the production in Home Islands (no oil will prevent resource being converted to supply no matter how many resource points are stockpiled or produced. )
I'm not retreating, I'm attacking in a different direction!
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Damien Thorn
- Posts: 1107
- Joined: Thu Jul 24, 2003 3:20 am
RE: How Many of you have dropped "The Bomb?"
Another thing to consider is that every bomb dropped( or every bomb after the first two) shifts the victory conditions one in the Japanese favor. So, after 4 bombs it is impossible for the allies to win, no matter what the score.
Damien Thorn
Damien Thorn
RE: How Many of you have dropped "The Bomb?"
And the logic behind that is?.....
ORIGINAL: Damien Thorn
Another thing to consider is that every bomb dropped( or every bomb after the first two) shifts the victory conditions one in the Japanese favor. So, after 4 bombs it is impossible for the allies to win, no matter what the score.
Damien Thorn
RE: How Many of you have dropped "The Bomb?"
And the logic behind that is?.....
Idle Speculation: The designer's didn't want to be seen as pro-nuke?
Japan takes the Nuke question rather seriously, and even though WiTP is just a game, there might be some politician or peacenik that might try and raise a stink about a game that appears to promote the use of WMD's. A bit of a stretch, IMO, but sometimes people make leaps of logic that leave me blinking in confusion...