Niceguy vs Graycompany: Death to the Meatball....Strategy talk

[Feinder]

Something I have recently learned is that, when it evaluates a TF for when it decides what to attack with it's airstrike, a CV is a CV is a CV...

That being the case, you if you were to create 3x TFs. A TF for each USN CV + escorts. And a third TF with the two RN CVs, they Japanese strikes are much more likely to go after the RN TFs. You could even sweeten the temptation, by putting a BB in with the RN CVs. But you'd be controlling the likelihood of it actually attacking your more valuable USN CVs.

Then again, it might randomly -not- attack your RN CVs, and go after your individual USN CVs anyways. And you might get clobbered either way. Just passing on what I've observed.

You may not want to do this. It might even be cosidered "gamey" (since you -are- playing on the deficiencies of the engine, allowing you to more predict which TF it will attack).

Just passing on some knowledge.

If you can get 5:3 (your favor) vs. IJN in April, I might go for the engagement. But be advised that I just went 1:1 vs. Japan 2x in October 42, and got my a$$ handed to me twice for twice (evidently by some really crappy "rolls"). So it can be a crap shoot.

You should also be prepared for the very real possabiilty that he doesn't come to the party. What if you your opponent waltzes to the east, maybe en route to action in SoPac, while your CVs are turning circles SW of Java? Can you make it to SoPac in time, to put up a fight (if you want to)? If your base is Broome or North Oz, has he captured PM yet? If so, you're not likely going to go thru that straight between Darwin and Cooktown. If you -do- try the straight, it puts you within LBA range from PM, and possibly getting pounded by his CVs when you emerge. Either that, or you've got to go all the way around Oz in order to support SoPac.

I haven't read thru the whole AAR. You're probably getting a fair read of your opponent by now. But just make a plan for in case he DOESN'T show up for the party.

-F-

[niceguy2005]

Feinder, I think you are right on about having a backup plan. I sortied the Central Pacific fleet yesterday. I have Hornet already at Noumea (sp), with a handfull of Crusiers. Enterpirse and Yorktown are on their way with an old BB and another handful of cruisers. This leaves CentPac stripped pretty lean in terms of ships and planes, but all my bases are heavily garrisoned and behind level 6 or better forts.

PM has fallen, happened in the 3rd week of the war. My CVs are based out of Perth, but are well away from New Caledonia, so the Central Pacific fleet will have to take on the enemy alone if they come.

My CV force in the Indian ocean will look for capital ships to hit (including crusiers) but will not press an engagement, if it doesn't feel good I have no problem turning tale and running.

In terms of the makeup, after running a lot of tests, I found that you are probably right about splitting up the TFs, but it would seem just a tad gamey to me. I did find that for whatever reason Formidable was 3 times more likely to be hit than any other CV. Maybe its AA fire is a lot lower.

[niceguy2005]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Not knowing the disposition of forces, I would say he is going for South Pacific Islands. By doing this he would divide you into three separate and mutually unsupportive areas - India, Oz/NZ, and East Pacific/USA. [:(]
However, the temptation to relocate those troops from DEI to India to finish you off is also very tempting. [:D]

There was the Atlantic Wall, I like the East Pacific Wall myself (Pearl-Palmyra-Canton-Pago Pago-Suva). [:D]New Caledonia is nice to have as the Allies, but once the Japanese get on Luganville, the others are in trouble unless there are forces there already build up to deal with them.

It "feels" like he is going for the South Pacific, but it could be a feint. If it was me, I would try to finish off India. He has a considerable number of divisions and planes tied down there now and I suspect Burma is weak. If he is in the same position in 1943 he will get slaughtered - I would flank him and invade Malaya.

It also has occured to me that Perth could be a target. If he held Perth it would cut off the southern axis to the Indian Ocean. It would be hard for the Allies to retake and would further isolate Northern OZ. Fortunately I started building Perth early, intending all along to use it as a supply base. I think the forts are levels are 6 or 7 and the 6th Australian Div just arrived.

[Feinder]

I did find that for whatever reason Formidable was 3 times more likely to be hit than any other CV. Maybe its AA fire is a lot lower.

Unfortunately for the crew of the Formidable, nobody noticed Seaman Berkshire's practical joke until Japanese bombers were spotted overhead...

[niceguy2005]

ORIGINAL: Feinder

I did find that for whatever reason Formidable was 3 times more likely to be hit than any other CV. Maybe its AA fire is a lot lower.

Unfortunately for the crew of the Formidable, nobody noticed Seaman Berkshire's practical joke until Japanese bombers were spotted overhead...

[:D][:D]

[niceguy2005]

The war creeps on toward the 1st of May. I can hear the distant rumble of Spitfire engines...there they are, just over the horizon. [:D]

4/29/42

Mostly quiet day. Sargo, carrying evacuees away from Java stops to put a fish in a Japanese AK - got to love that.

Japan announces its intention to attack UK forces holed up at Impahl by opening a bombing campaign on the defenders there.

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 04/29/42

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack near Batavia at 19,59

Japanese Ships
AK Tsukikawa Maru, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
PG Nishho Maru

Allied Ships
SS Sargo

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Imphal , at 33,26

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-Ib Oscar x 6
Ki-49 Helen x 56
Ki-15 Babs x 5

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-49 Helen: 1 destroyed, 4 damaged
Ki-15 Babs: 2 damaged


Allied ground losses:
29 casualties reported
Guns lost 1

Airbase hits 3
Runway hits 4

Aircraft Attacking:
6 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 9000 feet
8 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 9000 feet
8 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 9000 feet
2 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 9000 feet
8 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 9000 feet
5 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 9000 feet
3 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 9000 feet
4 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 9000 feet
3 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 9000 feet
3 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 9000 feet
3 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 9000 feet
2 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 9000 feet

The allies will have to challenge Japan in the skies over Impahl. I started today with air evacuation of non-combat troops. Tomorrow I will send in the AVG all 50 of them to meet Japans bombers.

It's been a while since I have done an update of all the theaters, so let me know if there are particular questions. First theater is Southeast Asia.

Theater Update
Southeast Asia

To: Allied Supreme Command
From LGEN Pownall, Southeast Asia Commander

Date: 4/28/42

Southeast Asia Command agrees with the assessment that India may well be under new attack from Axis forces recently freed from the Java campaign. The overall strategy of this command will continue to be protection of UK citiznes and its forces and the expulsion of enemy forces from east India. With reinforcements limited our position, particularly in Southern and Western India is vulnerable. Forces in east India, led by 3rd Corp at Calcutta and the Burma Corp in Asansol have stalemated the enemies advances.

It is our belief Japanese forces are gathering for a push against the remnants of the Burma army at Impahl. Aerial evacuation operations are under way. Further, the remnants of the Chinese and Brittish forces from the siege of Dimapur are making their way back to friendly lines. If both operations are successful within one months time 8 more bdes will be added to current troop levels in India.

With the majority of the Royal Navy operating jointly with the USN near Perth, a small surface fleet stands ready at Columbo to counter any Japanese invasion. This force consists of the HMS Resolution, 2 heavy cruisers and 7 light cruisers, with supporting escorts.

The RAF in India has been enjoying considerable success against the Japanese air force and will push their advantage. Bombers sent to China will be recalled and an intense bombing campaign will be used to counter enemy offensive actions.

Given current troop levels and enemy strength it is not estimated that any offensive action can be undertaken for at least the next 6 months.

[aztez]

He is already in India at 4/42 [8|]

If I understand correctly you have bulk of your RAF force intact? That is good news if that is the case.

How far off are the Spitfire squadrons?

[niceguy2005]

ORIGINAL: aztez

He is already in India at 4/42 [8|]

If I understand correctly you have bulk of your RAF force intact? That is good news if that is the case.

How far off are the Spitfire squadrons?

Yes, in fact he invaded toward the end of 2/42 IIRC. [:o]

I can upgrade to Spits in two days, the reinforcement squadrons are a little bit beyond that. The buld of the RAF is intact and in fact took such a heavy toll on his air force that he had to stop offensive operations.

In addition to the RAF, I have the AVG and the 24th FG with 72 P-40Es in India.

My problem is I still don't have enough ground forces to cover all of India. Outside of Calcutta and Asansol I only have a rgt or so at each major base. My fear is that he will invade southern India and try a pincher move to cut off the East Indian forces...I would strongly consider it if I were him.

[niceguy2005]

4/31/42

Finally, the end of April...Whew...it was a rough month for the allies.

Not a lot happening.

His forces took Nukufetau Is...he is definitely more active in the South Pacific. Almost the entire USN is focused on moving troops and material to make a fortress out of the area. If he does attack he's going to find it tough going.

Pensecola is at Noumea trying to repair from the battle of Luganville, its touch and go right now...float damage at 70% and only repaired 1 point in 3 days. I was hoping for better at a level 6 port.

Big battle of the day was an ambush by the AVG on his lightly escorted raid over Impahl. 30 American Volunteer pilots swooped down on his raid of 40 Helens escorted by 20 Oscars. The AVG claimed 16 of the Oscars and damaged 20 Helens and shooting down 1. NO allied losses were reported. [:D] He will show up there tomorrow with 60 Zeros so I am pulling the AVG back to Calcutta for a day of rest.

His recon planes spotted my CV force in the Indian Ocean again today. It's a good bet he knows I'm there. I have 2 choices push on trying to find a worthy target, or send the force back to Perth for some badly needed R&R.

[niceguy2005]

Theater Update
China

Memo
From Allied Command Attache, China
To: Allied Supreme Command

The Japanese strategy to date seems to be focused on isolation of Chinese forces. With the probably defeat of Allied forces within one month at Impahl China will from that point forward be utterly isolated from any Allied assistance. The Japanese strategy in China has been less focused on taking ground then it has been on forcing the defenders to burn through valuable supplies. Supply levels in China have reached critical. I can't stress strongly enough how badly needed supplies are. Every recent Japanese victory has been the result of the Chinese running out of the most basic supplies. At Homan, the troops were reduced to using their rifles as clubs.

The Chinese are trying a desperate plan to reposition its forces closer to its primary supply source at Chunking. The two major components of the plan are the movement of the force just east of Sian into Sian itself, while almost simultaneously moving the force at Sian southwest into the woods. A third force will redoploy to the Mountains about 180 miles west of Sian to hold the road until all forces can make it safely back to friendly lines.

A new enemy force is trying to block retreat from Changsa, indicating that Japan will strike there next. Forces from the seige of Canton will redeploy to clear the road and the path of retreat from Changsa.

I must stress that while I believe these manuvers will buy Chinese forces some badly needed time, China cannot hope to hold out unless supplies and allied air power can be brought to bare by the beginning of 1943.

China Command has drawn up a plan for the redeployment of its troops. The arrows represent recent troop movements and arcs the intended defensive lines to be held near term.

[niceguy2005]

5/1/06

A couple of interesting "skirmishes" today

During the night SS Seal attacked an ML just north of Koepang and missed, but acquited herself well by putting a fish through the side of an AK during the day. The skipper managed to evade two ASW attacks and remains on station.

110 Bettys and 78 Sallys pasted Palembang and basically eliminated the last of the Dutch air force. This was in retaliation to yesterdays strikes in which several green figther pilots managed to drop some pickles on Jap transports. Nothing more than an annoyance to the Japs, but talk about stirring up the hornets nest.

A small bombardment TF hit the eastern coast of India at Yanam causing only light damage, but this coupled with the disappearance of his carriers and the fact that his troops in eastern india are on the move all point to something going down in the Indian Ocean. If his pattern holds Yanam will be a feint, but it is the weak link on the eastern/southern coast. Other possibilities include him landing at Diamond harbor and driving inland (DH is already his) or invading the west coast of India. If I were him I would go for DH.

Last but not least he took Funafuti unopposed today. The pressure in the southpacific is heating up. Halsey is arriving at Suva in a couple of days and I expect he will fight it out for Wallis Island if the Japs come a calling. [:@]

[niceguy2005]

5/2/42

Overall a very quiet day. The biggest news of the day is that the last remnants of resistance on Java Island surrendered today at Batavia (mostly base forces and a couple of small garrison units). This brought to a close the battle of Java, which lasted from the 3rd week in January until the first days of May. The resistance the troops put up there was vital to the allied effort. The defeat frees a further 3 Divisions and 2 Bdes for Japan, though I would expect at least 1/3 of that force to remain on Java as a garrison - the Allies wouldn't hesitate to invade again.

Palembang is the last Dutch garrison standing, well supplied with 180 assualt points behind level 5 forts. He will have to bring considerably more force to bare there then he has currently. Allied subs are working to evacuate the non-combatants. I hope Palembang can hold another 2 weeks.

Otherwise only other noteworthy actions were 50 B-25s dropped more bombs on the Koepang airfield and LB-30s out of Darwin attacked an ML also at Koepang - the same one that SS Seal shot at and missed yesterday. The bombers scored 5 hits on ML Yaeyama and sent the burning wreck quickly to the bottom of the ocean.

[niceguy2005]

5/3/42

US subs hit back again today.

SS Seal put yet another torp in a Jap AK just out of Koepang - probably bring supplies for the build up of the island.

[niceguy2005]

5/3/42

Hadn't meant to send that post so soon.

Other action:

SS Finback shot at the Fuso on her way to Rabaul, but missed. [:(]  The sub escaped a fearsome ASW attack from and escorting APD unscathed.

The massive Japanese army laying seige attacked Sian again today and lowered the forts to 1. The Chinese must hold for 4 more days while the remnant of those who fought at Homan make it safely back behind the lines. See the map several posts above.

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 199417 troops, 1477 guns, 9 vehicles, Beginning Assault Value = 3647

Defending force 63857 troops, 65 guns, 39 vehicles, Beginning Assault Value = 1651

Japanese max assault: 3605 - adjusted assault: 1847

Allied max defense: 1576 - adjusted defense: 604

Japanese assault odds: 3 to 1 (fort level 2)

Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 1


Japanese ground losses:
4550 casualties reported
Guns lost 80
Vehicles lost 3

Allied ground losses:
1994 casualties reported
Guns lost 14
Vehicles lost 2

For about the 8th day in a row bombers from Calcutta didn't fly. I don't know if its weather or enemy cap. Im going to put up a super escort with the bombers tomorrow and see if they will attack.

Lastly, Palembang was once again pasted by a mass of Sallys flying from Sing. I don't want to hear any whinning from Jap fanboys about allied 4Es. My guys are getting a shlacking and there's not a thing I can do about it. [:@]

[niceguy2005]

5/4/42

A fly on the wall of Lieutant General Pownall's headquaters at Colombo.

"RAIN, RAIN, RAIN!," shouts the general pacing the floor, he stops to look out the window, "more of this BLASTAD DAMN RAIN! Our pilots haven't flown a mission for over nine days!"

The general does an about face and strides to the small table sitting in the middle of the room where the generals staff sat looking stoic, yet just a little apprehensive. "Sir," volunteered Major Stills, "the enemy has also been unable to fly any offensive missions."

"Damn it Major! We fought a bloody month long battle to control the skies. Beat those bloody Japs at their own game!" the General gave a hurrumph before continuing with a milder tone, "we bought those skies with the lives of our fighter pilots. Now the enemy is able to advance without any interdiction from our air force. That is unacceptable."

Placeing his hands behing his back the general did an about face again and lto look out the window once more. "Time is getting away from us gentlemen. The enemy is afoot and he is coming for us. Most of our reinforcement is still at least two months away," then with a voice so soft it was like the general was speaking to himself, "This bloody rain must cease."

Everything quiet today across the pacific. No major raids. However, a Jap tank regiment did succeed in taking Yanam from a base force. The port size is zero, but its a foothold on eastern India.

[niceguy2005]

5/5/42
 
Bad day for subs. 
 
SS Finback got blasted by a sub hunter group out of Rabaul.  She has 80% float damage and is limping home. 
 
I-125 got hit 9 times (at least 3 real hits) just off Adak Is.  She may be in trouble also.
 
SS Nautilus, carrying part of a Dutch base force from Palembang stopped to shoot at an AK passing by on its way to Derby, but missed; ASW missed as well.
 
Sian, Impahl and Palembang all under heavy ground assualt.  Palembang is holding nicely, Impahl and Sian are in trouble.
 
LGEN Pownall should be happy.  Beauforts flew from Madras against the 4th Tank Rgt at Yanam.  They took out 2 tanks and 21 support troops.  Calcutta is still socked in...no flights.
 
Air evacuation of Impahl continues.
 
Suva was overflown by a Glenn today.  With all the IJN acticity on nearby islands I am certain of a Japanese offensive at either Wallis Is, Pago-Pago or Fiji itself.  Hornet is on patrol near Lugaville and Big E and Yorktown are just off Wallis Is.

[niceguy2005]

5/8/42

With all operations cancelled while the build up of US forces continues things remain relatively quiet.

Higlights from todays actions.

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 05/08/42


Sub attack at 98,61
The japs sunk ML Ogalala with a critical hit, on her way to Midway. MSW Grebe returned fire, but caused no damage. The Allies now have only 2 operational MLs in the pacific and 3 DM.
Japanese Ships
SS I-18

Allied Ships
ML Oglala, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
MSW Grebe

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Changsha , at 47,36

Japanese aircraft
Ki-32 Mary x 22

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-32 Mary: 2 destroyed, 7 damaged

Heavy Industry hits 4

Aircraft Attacking:
20 x Ki-32 Mary bombing at 2000 feet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Changsha , at 47,36
The Chinese are moving fighters forward for an ambush tomorrow of Jap DBs.
Japanese aircraft
Ki-51 Sonia x 79
Ki-36 Ida x 3

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-51 Sonia: 1 destroyed, 8 damaged


Allied ground losses:
3 casualties reported

Airbase hits 6
Airbase supply hits 2
Runway hits 44

Aircraft Attacking:
21 x Ki-51 Sonia bombing at 2000 feet
27 x Ki-51 Sonia bombing at 2000 feet
21 x Ki-51 Sonia bombing at 2000 feet
3 x Ki-51 Sonia bombing at 2000 feet
3 x Ki-51 Sonia bombing at 2000 feet
3 x Ki-51 Sonia bombing at 2000 feet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Lautem , at 33,78
The Allies attack an apparently empty base. This could be a likely landing for allied forces in late May or early June to establish a forward airfield for the assault on Koepang.

Allied aircraft
Hudson I x 3
LB-30 Liberator x 24


No Allied losses

Airbase supply hits 2
Runway hits 7

Aircraft Attacking:
15 x LB-30 Liberator bombing at 16000 feet
9 x LB-30 Liberator bombing at 16000 feet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack at 58,45
Grayback was hunting just off the HI. The hits caused no effective damage.
Japanese Ships
MSW Bisan Maru
MSW Seki Maru
MSW Mejima Maru
DD Yamakaze
DD Oshio

Allied Ships
SS Grayback, hits 2


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at Imphal
This is the big hot spot in the war right now. With most of their guns lost in their flight from Burma, the UK forces pinned at Impahl have been getting decimated by a Jap tank RGT. Tranports are air lifting out about 200 soldiers a day.
Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 48229 troops, 407 guns, 148 vehicles, Beginning Assault Value = 887

Defending force 15184 troops, 59 guns, 3 vehicles, Beginning Assault Value = 231

Japanese max assault: 829 - adjusted assault: 304

Allied max defense: 204 - adjusted defense: 119

Japanese assault odds: 2 to 1 (fort level 2)

Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 1


Japanese ground losses:
175 casualties reported
Guns lost 11
Vehicles lost 1

Allied ground losses:
682 casualties reported
Guns lost 10
Vehicles lost 1

[BrucePowers]

Niceguy2005;
How do you rate your defense and retreat in the face of overwhelming odds? When I first got this game I thought I wanted to play Japan and see where I could go. I still do. I have now realized that to learn the game the allies are a good way to learn which I am doing (painfully but doing).

[niceguy2005]

ORIGINAL: BrucePowers

Niceguy2005;
How do you rate your defense and retreat in the face of overwhelming odds? When I first got this game I thought I wanted to play Japan and see where I could go. I still do. I have now realized that to learn the game the allies are a good way to learn which I am doing (painfully but doing).

I would say I have done well in some areas and not very well in others. I started this PBEM when I was still very green - I had only played one full map campaign against the AI into mid-43. In particular I struggled in Burma and China early.

I tried a strategy of fighthing retreat, trying to be very wise about where I choose to make a stand. My opponent likes to isolate defenders and eliminate them in small groups. Therefore, he is always invading from multiple landing sites and you don't know what direction the attack is coming from until it is pretty much too late. In the PI I did a good job of keeping my forces together and fighting for every hex - he still managed to cut off my defenders at Legesapi.

I was not so lucky in Malaya. He flanked me and landed a large blocking force half way down the peninsula effectively splitting the UK forces in two. As a consequence he took Malaysia quickly.

In Burma I didn't really know what to do or where to stand. I pulled back to Mandalay, big mistake. There's no place good to retreat to and when I did cut and run for Impahl through the jungle, he moved the Burma army to invade India. I owned Chandpur and DIamond Harbor by 2.15.42

However, my stand in the DEI, particularly Java, I felt was excellent. Since he was engaged with me in India he didn't have as much force to bring to the fight there. I used guerilla naval tactics using PTs, subs and DDs to disrupt his landings. Borneo took so long for him to defeat that by the time he got to Java I had reinforced it with other DEI garrions and was well supplied and dug in. I used two squadrons of 4E bombers flying from Java and Sumatra to harass his ships. I counted some 60 transports as being hit.

I also made a point to get US forces to the South Pacific quickly to start developing bases. This strategy worked well. I was able to turn back early march invasions of Canton and Luganville.

I had 2 rules very early on that served me well. Avoid carrier battles at all cost and don't try to defend to far forward. I have seen players rush troops to PM, Rabaul or GC early in the game. This would have been a huge blunder in my game.

[niceguy2005]

As this month looks to be very quiet and boring I'm going to take a minute to review strategy.

Japanese war strategy seems to be based on isolation and resources. When engaging in offensive action, the enemy will attempt to isolate a force completely and then wear down its capability to fight. This can be seen on a micro scale in battles such as Bataan and Java Is, as well as at on a larger scale in theaters such as China and India.

Based on this analysis the allies have begun a new strategic focus of building bases across the pacific that represent a secure supply line to every theater. Right now resources are stretched very thin as the allies must secure supply from SF to Hawaii, to the south pacific (suva), across to the east coast of Australia, then because the Japs hold PM, around the southern coast of Oz and finally through the Indian Ocean to India.

Before launching any new invasion the allies will make sure that this supply line is unquestionably secure. A significant part of the USN will be tasked with keeping the Indian ocean route from Oz to India open so that ships can traverse it safely.

Near term operations will be focused on eliminating any enemy threat from PM and Timor and then eventually reopening the Northern supply route around OZ.

Operation Falcon: is heavily into the planning stage. The operation calls for the capture of Thursday Is by paratroopers and then air transport of base forces and supplies. The base will be turned into a base for medium bombers to reach PM.

Operation Package is also underway. This operation is the build up of heavy bomber bases in Northeast Australia from which several bomber groups, in connection with those from Operation Falcon will neutralize Port Morsebys airfields.

Finally, Operation Base Hit is also in the planning phase. Southwest Pac will begin offensive operations against western New Guinea and Timor. The goal is to develop air bases that will allow the allies to control the air space around Northern Australia.

I am considering the supply problem in China. The UK cannot supply china from Calcutta by air. To keep China in the war the allies have to reopen a supply line. One possibility will be to fight a very bloody battle in eastern India driving 6-7 divisions of Japanese troops from . Another possibility would be a massive D-Day style invasion of Malaya and Northen Sumatra from India. I suspect that Japanese defenses in Malaya are weak. Such an invasion would not only produce air bases to supply china from, but could cut off Japans Burma army. The success of such an operation would count on the allies ability to maintain a strong naval presence in the Bay of Bengal.