Aztez (Allies) vs Erstad (Japan)

[Nemo121]

Jeffs,

yes, the Washington Treaties and the Japanese position regarding them is, essentially, a real-world application of the Lanchester Laws and I think more of the students of those treaties would do well to bear that in mind. Thanks for the reply. I hadn't realised that one of the important planners had died of cancer... It supports the old adage that when you come down to it all systems are really about people. Change the people and the system changes. Change the system but keep the people and most of the time the old system re-asserts itself.


Aztez,
Couldn't agree more with what Rob said. Scatter a few Dakota squadrons throughout the Hawaiian Islands and you should be able to airlift in whatever forces are mis-deployed once the invasion has landed.

[aztez]

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

Jeffs,

yes, the Washington Treaties and the Japanese position regarding them is, essentially, a real-world application of the Lanchester Laws and I think more of the students of those treaties would do well to bear that in mind. Thanks for the reply. I hadn't realised that one of the important planners had died of cancer... It supports the old adage that when you come down to it all systems are really about people. Change the people and the system changes. Change the system but keep the people and most of the time the old system re-asserts itself.


Aztez,
Couldn't agree more with what Rob said. Scatter a few Dakota squadrons throughout the Hawaiian Islands and you should be able to airlift in whatever forces are mis-deployed once the invasion has landed.

I will do as suggested with Rob and you. I will place some units to Lahaina and Hilo. It is still time think defense. (Sneer vs Raver is a good example)

I also will continue mine islands at Hawaji. If he comes again than we will have one huge battle ahead of us.

[Rob Brennan UK]

good luck Aztez .. as you know a massive amount of kills/disruption can be caused by an opposed landing , even if your outnumbered .. it would also allow your surface forces to hit with success and probably suprise too (even at night ) and as nemo suggests get some dakotas to PH asap .

[aztez]

Quick update.
 

The current game date is 22nd of October 1942.
 
It seems that Dave has cancelled his plans in CenPac. KB has last seen moving towards Southern Pacific.
 
There has not been any enemy LBA's attacking Pearl Harbour from Johnston Island.
 
Only advances the enemy has made are in Aleutians. Dave has captured Adak and Umnak Islands with small force.
 
No sign of his main Battle fleet nor KB for weeks.
 
Dave has also recently bombed Cooktown and Kumming resources. It seems that he think that Oz don't have enough supplies. Well, if that is the case than he is completely wrong.
 
I have kept mining those islands near Pearl Harbour. Also some troops have now moved to Hilo too.
 
I'am currently upgrading my US Navy in CenPac. It takes time since I'am only upgrading a single TF at time so that my battle readiness does not downgrade temporarily.
 
Allied HQ is slowly thinking about some offensives but Dave has played an excellent game so far and that means I must be very careful on where and when to commit my troops into battles.
 
Japanese have 6-8 units in most of Atolls/Islands in Central and South Pacific.
 
Well, just an quick update for now. The daily news bulletins will start again once things are getting "hot" so to speak.

[Nemo121]

Interesting... Just be careful not to spread out too much. My advice is just to build up your garrisons and train your bombers with milk-runs against his defences.
 
has anyone else here played Erstad? Is he likely to commit himself completely to the defence once he has achieved the defensive perimeter he desires?
 
 
Aztez,
Is it possible to post a screenshot of the strategic map with a front-line trace? I can't be the only one who gets mixed up about what is and isn't taken in each individual AAR. It just might be useful in seeing where else he could use KB to good effect.

[aztez]

Hi Nemo,


Actually Feinder has a game ongoing againts Dave currently. Allthough haven't heard any updates on how things are progressing in that PBEM.

Here is the strategic map:

[aztez]

Dave has build himself quite an Empire.
 
What I have experienced about his playing style is couple things:
 
1) He does not take unnecessary risks. If and when he comes he tries to move in quickly and with huge force.
 
2) He is not an gamey opponent. I actually received an email stating that he would not be using the IJN pilot pool option under 1.801 at all.
 
3) Simply he does not make mistakes. Everything seems to be planned and well thought out.
 
4) Dave also keeps his naval assets in "hiding". This is a dilemma since I will not strike if I do not have any idea where his navy is. But looking for the strategic map it is obvious that it should be somewhere down into Southern areas. (Protecting Canton Island, Baker Island and Marshalls)
 
...and yes I will not move additional troops into Aleutians. As you said it would be mistake to spread out my infantry and naval units. That is one possible reason why he is taking an offensive there.

[Nemo121]

The one big target there for the taking if he isn't going for PH is New Zealand... Of course if he is constraining himself within historical limits as opposed to capabilities then he may just be going for repair and refit and be waiting to counter-punch your offensives.

[aztez]

NZ is vulnerable if he chooses to assault it. I have just around 600 assault points defending Auckland. The airforce is not big either 4 squadrons of Kittyhawks and some Hudson squadrons.
 
I think that Dave will constrain himself in somewhat histrorical limit. In this mornings email he stated "[font=arial]Well, I'm probably getting close to my high water mark.  Might have one or two surprises left, though."[/font]
[font=arial][/font] 
[font=arial]I have ordered a massive 4E bomber raid targeting Johnston Island. These big boys will fly from Pearl Harbour. Intresting to see the results.[/font]

[veji1]

Hmm NZ looks like a good striking point.. He can kill some troops, cut supply line to OZ ( although by this time you might have shipped a lot already ), and then retreat... He cannot garrison it strongly though because supply line is hard to protect and also it is easely bypassed, but it is a nice attack...

He might go for Perth as well, and not garrison it to strongly either... this way he really isolates Oz for a little while, and can hurt shipping...

Last thing, he might try to advance towards Alaska, but I am not sure it is worth it a this point...

[aztez]

Thanx for the input Veji1! I do agree that NZ is propably my weakest point at the moment. Also I do not have enough infantry units to garrison Perth properly. I have Aussie Divisions at Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne.

As for the reinforcements at Oz. Well, there is pretty much none! [:(] Dave blockaded the South Pacific early with Kido Butai. I tried to sneak in 2nd USCM division and some supporting elements but those troops were almost put beneath the waves! [:-]

Shortly after he went for Noumea, Canton Island, Baker Island and Fiji. That basically meant that no troop/aircraft convoys have managed to get into Oz.

On the bright side I have plenty of supplies and fuel in Southern Oz. (These have been brought from India) So there is no immediate concern about those things at least.

I know I need to open South Pacific and so does he. That means he is expecting me to make a move there and I'am not ready for it yet.

Aleutians. I'am not going to send more troops in there. That is a secondary operational theatre and my units are better served elsewhere.

I have looked the reinforcement schedules and unfortunately it is not looking good. A major infantry units are +100 days off. (We are playing +/- 60 days arrivals)

Only thing at the moment is to wait and see what happens. It is "peaceful" for that single reason. and to be honest it does require patience (which I'am kinda short of after these beatings!!! [:)])

...but it is better to wait than go into "banzai" charges which are more than likely to result in disaster. (Dave is just one mean opponent)

[ny59giants]

For the Allies, I see the key is to survive until 10/42, which you have done. In 10/42 you get your major fleet upgrades - AAA and ASW factors go up significantly and the P-38's start flowing in. From your map any counteroffensive in the Central Pacific would have to be supported by CV's (which Dave knows). I would reconsider doing something in the Aleutians mainly with you LBA's to build up experience levels. He has China, now you have your own training area. [:D]

Seeing that India/Burma was not a major objective for Dave, what are your plans there?? And in China??

Oz/NZ seems to be a line from one of my movies, "The Longest Day," where the British paratroops have to hold the bridge "until relieved."  Any reinforcements from USA would have to follow the southern map edge closely. Have you considered sending some small 1 or 2 AK TF on various routes to NZ to see what he has down there?? Too bad the Allies don't have float planes on subs. [:(]

[aztez]

Hi ny59giants! Yes, 10/42 has now passed. I have upgraded most of my CV TF's. The last one (CV Wasp) is currently in the drydocks at Pearl Harbour. After she and her escorts have upgraded than it is time to start upgrading BB TF's in the CenPac.

There are 3 BB repairing at SF. These ships should be operational within a month or so. That gives me quite an good surface combat strenght.

You made an good point. All of the invasions cannot be supported by LBA's. The closest target is over 8 hexes away and that means even P38's cannot cover the distance. Dave most definately have build up his defenses according to this idea. Even with 10/42 upgrades my CV Fleet is short of what the Japanese navy has currently. 6 Operational CV's are not a match to KB unless I could get a lucky shot.

Only way I see any major CV operations to succeed is to combine with US and RN fleets. That is easier said than done since whole RN is still at India.

Eherm, China is not my training ground [:(] ...He is currently targeting Kumming and propably Chengtu too with his airforce. It seems he is going after those precious resource centers.


Day Air attack on Kunming , at 39,33

Japanese aircraft
A6M3 Zero x 24
Ki-61 KAIc Tony x 35
Ki-21 Sally x 21
Ki-46-II Dinah x 3

Allied aircraft
Spitfire Vb x 10

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-61 KAIc Tony: 1 destroyed
Ki-21 Sally: 3 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
Spitfire Vb: 9 destroyed


Allied ground losses:
10 casualties reported

Airbase hits 1
Airbase supply hits 5
Runway hits 17


The good news is that he really was just testing my defenses at Pearl Harbour with Johnston Island adventure.


Day Air attack on Johnston Island , at 102,74

Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 129
B-24D Liberator x 34

No Allied losses

Airbase hits 5
Airbase supply hits 9
Runway hits 86


Intelligence indicates just 2000 enemy troops garrisoning the place. That is odd but I guess he saw that my defensive perimeter at Pearl was too strong.

You think I should commit my forces at Aleutians ny59giants? Currently I think I have just 3 US RCT units there and some supporting troops. No major naval forces at all.

I have scouted the South Pacific around NZ. He seems to have some submarines in recon duty there. Indeed too bad that US nor British doesn't have those Glens!

As for plans in China. Dave pretty much have destroyed my offensive capabilities with his huge offensives early on. I just don't have the supplies to conduct offensives. It is just surviving and defending at the moment there. Only thing I'am going to do is to rotate some RAF squadrons there in order to bolster my air defenses. I also short on Air Aviation forces here so I cannot defend whole China even if I wanted to.

Burma is tempting. I have build up airfields and also training my pilots. We have an houserule that Karachi is off limits so that gives me some operational freedom. Only thing I'am sort of at the moment is British/Indian divisions. I'am propably going to do a push here in 1943. [:D] I need to open the Burma road and that I might be able to do.

[ny59giants]

I thought about an invasion of his Aleutian islands for a few reasons: Since you will be able to support your invasions with LBA it will be a place that your LBA's to gain experience; second, I would use some of your LCU's that have low experience levels to be built up. I would not use any of your USMC divisions since they already have high experience and to keep dave in the dark about where they are. [:D]  I am not saying this is going to be your main axis to get to Japan, but if not here, where would you use your American forces until your Navy is built up enough??

Kind of like the USA Army needing North Africa and Italy to gain experience and make improvements in training and doctrine. If the USA had gotten it's way and build up only for a cross channel attack in '43, I think it would have ended in disaster. [:-]

If he doesn't take NZ, I think it will come back to haunt him.

[aztez]

Intresting idea. That definately happened in North Africa and Italy in WW2.
 
I must look what I units I can spare for this kind of an adventure. I think I could send some of the older naval vessels to support operations in Aleutians. Also there might be some spare bomber squadrons at West Coast/Canada that could operate in this kind of an operation.
 
It would also be an strike that even Dave is not expecting at the moment. (or at least I think he is not)
 
US Navy will not be stong enough until sometimes in July/August/September 1943.
 
Burma is definate green light and Aleutians... well it does not sound that bad [:D][:-][:D]
 
 

[Feinder]

Sorry, I've gotten about 3 turns done in the last 2 - 3 weeks. I have newborn and 20 month old, both with colds, so no sleep for anyone.

My update, is unfortunately -very- bad news (for me at least)

I think I already listed the "Round 1" in this thread. Sara and Wasp were heavily damaged, but not sunk. My own air groups faired fairly well. I lost like 40 Wildcats, but destroyed 120 Zeros + 40 strike aircraft. I was out of strike range and didn't launch vs. him (grrr). We did replay the turn, with me in-range, just to see, and I clobbered him (Sara & Wasp sunk), but he lost Shok, Zui, and several CVL/CVEs. Fantasy result would have been great. But oh well. I'd have to live the damage to his airgroups (I was think equivelant to Coral Sea, where Japan's airgroups took a beating).

I came back a week later, after having replaced the lost aircraft. I also was escorting the 6th, 7th Aus Divs, 2nd Mar Div, and a RCT to invade those 3 atolls north of Suva. Basically, I brought my entire Navy (learned as much from Dave).

That drew the attention of mega-KB again. I figured the odds were basically 3:2 in his favor. But his his air-groups depleted, odds might be slightly less than even for me. I might not get the 2:2 result (2 CVs sunk each), but maybe a 3:2 result (3 CVs down for me, 2 for him). That would be acceptable. Considering I had "decimated" his fighters the week before, and mine were hardly touched, I considered it even a possability to get a 2:2 result.

Hard to say if excuses are "just excuses" but...

1. My CV TFs were set to follow the lead invasion TF. Patrol, no retire, with 0 react. Destination hex was out of range of Tarawa torps, and open water, so as not suffer ops penalty for shallows. However, when mega-KB showed up, my CVs reacted (does this burn ops points?), into range of his LBA from Tarawa.

2. Tara LBA strike came in first. My own CAP was "relatively effective", but Enterprise suffered two torps. I think she probably still had strike capability after that. But the disruption and losses to my own CAP would be distatrous thru the rest of the days CV vs. CV strikes.

3. My own strikes launched (mostly) without escorts. They got slaughtered. You could count the number of bombers that actually got thru, on your fingers. No hits. CAP settings were 50%, all CVs except the RN, were in separate TFs into increase the chances of combined strikes.

4. Heck, I don't even know where my own CAP was (disrupted by the LBA strike form Tarawa? I don't think it was -that- disruptive). I had less than 15 Wilcats show up over each of my CVs at any given time.

5. He didn't seem to miss 120 experienced Zero pilots. His replacements did just fine (he is a training fiend after all, I didn't know his replacements were THAT good tho). That got -very- messy.

6. In 2 days, -every- remaining CV of mine went down. Lex, Hornet, Ent, York, and the 3x RN CVs. All sunk. Glug, glug, glug.

7. It was a long, bloody 4 days back to Suva as my remaining convoys and capitols fled back to Suva. The convoys and capitals got hammered with no CAP. Fortunately, some remenats have (just) made it back. So I won't completely lose the divisions.

8. Frankly, I haven't even begun to asses the damage (stuff is still staggering into Suva, and lots of stuff could sink). Basically, I think he just ran out of bombs.

9. 7 CVs sunk. Wasp and Sara crippled from previous week, will be a challenge to get them home, you -know- he's going to come looking for them. Lots of other crap lost also.

9. He offered a mulligan (redo), but I don't think I would have been so kind if I had beaten him, so I replied "Play on!".

10. I don't want to shirk responsability, but I think it was mostly sh1tty die rolls between the react, and uncoord strikes. Either way, I lost 7 CVs plus a lot of other stuff, with absolutely nothing to show for it. I know it could have gone either way tho, because our replay showed me giving tit-for-tat. Oh well. Nagumo and Kimmel had bad days too. But I've got 'em beat... [;)]

10. So at this point, my plan (if you could call it that), salavage anything out of SoPac that I can. Reinforce the Hawaiian Islands, and wait until end spring of '44 when I'll actually have sufficient CVs to tangle again. Then again, he might be in San Diego by then, but wouldn't that be interesting...

Sorry, hadn't posted, because the carnage has just stopped, and stuff is still sinking...

[:D]

-F-

[Nemo121]

Two comments:
 
1. Is this posted in the wrong thread.
 
2. WOW!!! [X(][X(][X(] That's a new high water mark for the Japanese players to aspire to.

[aztez]

Nice to see you back Feinder [:)]

Btw, was the newborn a girl or a boy? Just curious. It has been somewhat hectic here too. As you said sleepless nights are familiar. I think our daughter is getting her first teeth and she does not sleep too much at night.

I must say Ouch!!! [:(] ...Dave really hammered your US & RN Fleets!!! I think your estimate is about right that the earliest you can strike is spring of 1944. Let's just hope that he has not conquered SF! [:D][:(]

I must say I'am totally dazzled what to do againts him. What happened to your CV's is just a good example how I feel things will go if I go into banzai charges at CenPac. Yeah, it is november 1942 but I really don't have the naval assets to go head to head with him. He is a too good of an player!!! [8|]

I think you did the right choice by saying play on. (I would have done the same. Dave does not cheat... He actually said he will not using the pilot pool options under 1.801)

As for this game... well I have decieded to start preparing a small scale assaults at Aleutians. 1 US RCT Unit is moving into Kodiak. More supplies and fuel are moved into Anchorage. Some US Airforce squadrons will fly into Aleutians area too.

I'am scheduled to receive 1 US Aviation unit in 16 days time. That unit will be heading to North Pacific too since I'am lacking aviation support here.

I have not decieded what kind of a naval power will sail into that area but most of my navy will stay at CenPac.

As said nice to see you back Feinder and hopefully your childrens flus will go away soon! [:)]

[Feinder]

Nemo121 - That's a new high water mark for the Japanese players to aspire to!

Translation = "You suck!"
Yeah, well...
Ok.
[;)]
I have my moments, and that was a very painful 2 days.

Aztez - Btw, was the newborn a girl or a boy? Just curious. It has been somewhat hectic here too. As you said sleepless nights are familiar.

Newborn boy. We have a 20 month old boy (Matthew) and a 2 month old old boy (Benjamin). Both of their heads were filled with snot for about 2 weeks. They didn't sleep, so we didn't sleep. But we've turned the corner on that, and they're sleeping thru now.

Aztez - I think our daughter is getting her first teeth and she does not sleep too much at night.

"Teething bites". Been there, done that, bought the T-shirt. Our older one started teething at 5 months. (Infant) Tylenol is your friend. Call your Pediatritian to get a proper dosage, or you won't get any sleep for the next six months.

-F-

[Nemo121]

Feinder,
 
LOL!!! No, not at all a you suck message... Sometimes you CAN do everything right and still get creamed. To look at a result and draw a conclusion about how good someone is is solely from that is often to risk making a serious error. For example, some people have criticised my opponent for certain decisions he's made but the thing is they seemed reasonable at the time and often only went in my favour because luck favoured me that day.
 
Personally I managed to use the US "auto-react" to my favour in my game and that stuffed Trey's plan up royally. So was that bad play on his part? I would argue no, even though it resulted in some painful losses for him.
 
When you take a risk sometimes you lose. Doesn't make you a bad player... in fact being willing to take the risk is more likely, over the long-run, to make you a very good player IMO. So, sorry if it came across as a "you suck" comment. It certainly wasn't intended that way.