Tag Up and safe when he should have been out

[akcranker]

Here's the PBP:

The 1-1 Pitch
Kenneth Shinault Flew out to Right
Jeff Kent'05 Attempting to tag up and head to third...
Jonny Gomes'05 (RF) is trying to throw out the runner tagging up...
SAFE On The Tag Up!
Last pitch 87mph (Fastball)

Now Jeff Kent is a 40 year old man that is slow as hell Speed 13

Jonny Gomes has an arm rating of 97.

IMO this is like have Ichiro in Right and having him gun down the runner.. but somehow Jeff Kent is safe.. this better have been an extremely close play.

[Hard Sarge]

Hassle is, could it happen in real life ?
 
sure it can, it happens all the time, should it happen ? NO, but it does, did the outfielder double pump before throwing for some reason, did he think there was no way the runner would really be tagging up and get caught by surprise, did the outfielder just make a bad throw ?
 
some of the best players with cannons for arms, miss there targets
 
it happens, should it, well that is why they got Errors

[rowech]

In addition, don't forget Kent is on 2nd going to third on a ball hit to right.  That should add some safe factor.  Had the same situation been from left field and he was tagging to third, he should have been nailed. 

[torque561]

I have seen baserunners thrown out that you could swear never would be. In 2003 I saw Icharo thrown out by Jose Cruz Jr. on a ball to fairly deep right in the Rogers Centre. One bounce and out at third. Both players did everything right, but it happens.

[akcranker]

Yea I know it can happen in real life.  I'm just saying with an arm rating of 97 and speed of 13.. dude should have been out.  I've seen plenty of times where I've had a guy thrown out with a runners speed of like 65 and fielders arm of 70.

[JB44]

There's enough wrong that we need to get ironed out that doesn't include things like a guy running with his back to the plate and making a catch near the line in right and not throwing out my grandmother and her walker advancing to third.
 
This is the kinda thing that is baseball.
 
There's a lot more than needs to be addressed before we get to this point, if we ever do.

[Amaroq]

I don't want a result to ever be *guaranteed* - speed 13 vs arm 97, I want him to have a chance of advancing; speed 97 vs arm 13, I think there needs to be a chance of the runner being out. However you want to imagine these scenarios - outfielder double-pumps, throw is off-line, runner comes off the bag, or stumbles as he starts his move - I think it needs to have a chance of happening.

If it were happening all the time, that's a different problem, but a 'happened once', well I'm happy to know it can happen!

Now, why the AI was running against an arm of 97 with a speed of 13, *THAT* concerns me a bit more... [;)]

[rowech]

Say 97 versus 13 is an 84 chance for an out and 16 for safe...very basic model but one that will make that runner safe 16% of the time.