Pauk's corner: sake break for Japanese fanboys

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pauk
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RE: EAGLE DAY my ass (II)

Post by pauk »

Thanks for advice Arstavidios. Yes, the worst thing is to allow PM becomes operational. Lets see if we can do something to prevent this!



AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 03/13/43

PNG

Weather was clear so my problems didn't have any problem to find and bomb PM to the stone age. In the noon phase, enemy air transports flying to PM were intercepted and 8 of them were shot down. This is only thing which works fine in the A2A combat. Transports will turn on and try to run from the enemy fighers, while their collegues from the bomber will keep fighting and using Bomber Harris "bombers will always get through" doctrine.... even that means 60 or more bombers lost....

Day Air attack on Port Moresby , at 53,91

Japanese aircraft
A6M3 Zero x 25
J2M Jack x 26
E13A1 Jake x 1
Ki-44-IIb Tojo x 24
Ki-61 KAIc Tony x 45
Ki-21 Sally x 55
Ki-46-III Dinah x 1

Allied aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-21 Sally: 1 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
Spitfire Vb: 1 destroyed

Allied ground losses:
224 casualties reported
Vehicles lost 1

Airbase hits 1
Airbase supply hits 2
Runway hits 76

at 6000 feet

----------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Port Moresby , at 53,91

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 18
A6M3a Zero x 17
Ki-21 Sally x 44
Ki-49 Helen x 19

Allied aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-21 Sally: 2 damaged
Ki-49 Helen: 1 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
Spitfire Vb: 1 destroyed


Allied ground losses:
249 casualties reported
Guns lost 1
Vehicles lost 1

Airbase hits 1
Airbase supply hits 2
Runway hits 71

at 6000 feet


Naval LBA were kept on high attitude because i don't want to lose them - they are still more precious to Japan than a gold!

Day Air attack on Port Moresby , at 53,91

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 29
G3M Nell x 9
G4M1 Betty x 103
Ki-46-III Dinah x 5

Japanese aircraft losses
G4M1 Betty: 2 damaged

Allied Ships
AK Pierre S. Dupont, Bomb hits 1, on fire, heavy damage


Allied ground losses:
244 casualties reported
Guns lost 1
Vehicles lost 1

Port supply hits 4

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x G3M Nell bombing at 14000 feet
26 x G4M1 Betty bombing at 11000 feet
27 x G4M1 Betty bombing at 9000 feet
13 x G4M1 Betty bombing at 8000 feet
20 x G4M1 Betty bombing at 7000 feet
6 x G4M1 Betty bombing at 8000 feet
3 x G3M Nell bombing at 14000 feet
3 x G4M1 Betty bombing at 7000 feet
3 x G4M1 Betty bombing at 7000 feet
2 x G3M Nell bombing at 14000 feet
3 x G4M1 Betty bombing at 8000 feet
2 x G4M1 Betty bombing at 8000 feet



My subs are useless most part of the game. I should ask Fabertong and Speedy how they keep their subs effiency at high level??? Enemy convoy sailing to PM i guess probably under the cover of the enemy CVs.


ASW attack at 50,97

Japanese Ships
SS I-20, hits 4, on fire

Allied Ships
AK Admiral Laws
DD Tenedos
DD Scout



Im unsure if i should continue to AB go or it is better to wait for the enemy transports when they arrive at PM. I have 8 carriers, 4 CVL and Hosho but enemy could have 6 US and 2 Brit carriers in the area. I guess i have supperiority in pilots exp, i have more CVs (which means more targets to enemy) but Imperial HQ respecting the enemy strength....

Lots of enemy ships (i guess they are all PTs) are at PM. Not sure that i like it too...


CHINA

Finally some reason to cheer. I got 3-1 odds and part of Chinese troops retreated towards Kunming. Still there is a majority of the defenders in the hex and i'm not sure if my troops would be able to achive positive odds tomorrow (i sufer enormous casaulties and all of my troops have distruption higher than 65!). But will try another shock attack tomorrow.


Ground combat at 40,35

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 208686 troops, 2301 guns, 20 vehicles, Assault Value = 4142

Defending force 99973 troops, 4 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 2336

Japanese max assault: 8272 - adjusted assault: 2608

Allied max defense: 2251 - adjusted defense: 700

Japanese assault odds: 3 to 1


Japanese ground losses:
11370 casualties reported
Guns lost 201
Vehicles lost 8

Allied ground losses:
992 casualties reported

Defeated Allied Units Retreating!



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aztez
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RE: EAGLE DAY my ass (II)

Post by aztez »

Hmpf. Looks like we might see some CV vs CV duels in South Pacific? [;)]
Fishbed
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RE: EAGLE DAY my ass (II)

Post by Fishbed »

I don't know what is best: mid-sea interception (with much better chances to have allied ships sinking on the way back) or wait for them to start operations above PM, get a little hurt by land-based hammer than strike with KB anvil, and finish off with the surface action group...
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pauk
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RE: EAGLE DAY my ass (II)

Post by pauk »

yes Aztez it looks like. I know that you bloodthirsty Finns roots for the CV battle[:D], but imperial HQ is not here just to appease your instincts[;)][:D]

ok, what we do know?

1. our actual strentgh - 675 planes (+ 75 Zeros on CVE TF which should arrive at Ferguson island together with carrier divisions but we cant be sure about that although CVE TF have 3/3 range)

In details: Carierr div 1: 141 planes, CVs Hiryu and Taiho (50 Zero, 47 Vals, 33 Kate); AA rating 3934.

Carrier division 2: 197 ac, CVs Soryu, Akagi, Zuiho, Ryuho (86 Zero, 44 Val, 53 Kate); AA rating 5013

Carrier division 3: 176 ac, Shokaku, Junyo, Ryujo (64 Zero, 42 Val, 49 Kate); AA rating 4505

Carrier division 4: 161 ac, Zuikaku, Hiyo, Shoho, Hosho (60 Zero, 43 Val, 43 Kate); AA rating 5129.

total:: 260 Zero, 176 Val, 178 Kate. If we add 75 Zero from CVE TF that's make 325 fighters....

2. Enemy strength - we assume that 6 US carriers are in area. So far following US CVs were indentified in air battle over PM: Wasp, Saratoga, Enterprise, Yorktown, Hornet and Essex (by watching ac designations). Also, we should not forget that two US CVE are in area and could offer air support to the enemy CV fleets.

Probably two British CV are in Coral sea too... so that makes app 260 enemy fighers on Britus fleet without counting two airgroups from the CVEs

3. Enemy fleet is at sea - last turn my recon over Townswille sought several TFs including CVs! This turn no fleets were at Townsville and only P-38G and Spits flew CAP over Townsville.

4. That means Andy is well aware about threat from the KB, although he doesnt know where I am - for now.



POTENTIONAL ANDY'S MOVES


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I've divided them in two groups (1 and 2). Either he want to establish air superiority over the PM and enable transports delivering supply and/or eng/AV reinforcements (1) either he somehow predict what i will do (2)

It seems that option 1 is more likely and my best move to counter that would be moving KB to Fergusson island and waiting in ambush. Next turn i would transfer Bettys from Rabaul to Lae/Siador and give them orders to fly in high attitude and provide very strong CAP to bleed his fighters.

However, we have to be aware this sneaky Scot actually want to go fight/or he is not aware where is my KB but send his carriers towards Gili Gilli. This would trigger a big CV battle. The truth is we have more CVs which means more targets to him, we have aircrew advantage in experience (some enemy ac groups recived replacements after he engaged cv airgroups in battle for PM) but you HAVE to respect enemy CVs, especially after two upgrades. I'm not sure if i can get decisive battle here!

The problems don't stops here. If he decided to protect his transports or simply he is on defensive mode that would mean his fighers would be on 90 % CAP. That is quite a logical decision since he is moving closer to my LBA bases and he is in defencive mode at PM -still.

So if i decide to go for it and leave classic CAP (50-60) i could meet with uber cap and be slaughered (or suffer tremendous loses wihout hurt him enough. Yes, i could find myself lucky and caught him on 5 hexes but don't think that i can risk so much and live my CVs without protection.

Situation becomes even more complicated when we know that weather is bad (T-storms).

Of course, it could be that i'm completely wrong and his carriers are moving to Noumea-Tarawa and guys which reading both AARs are laughing, but we have to be prepared for all possibilities.

In short, quite a good analysis but common Japanese behaviour - hesitation. And we all know what happend in RL when Japanese were hesitant[:D]

Imperial Pauk's family have to think carefully.... and Fish, yes, i don't know too what is the better[:D]

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Fishbed
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RE: EAGLE DAY my ass (II)

Post by Fishbed »

You'll soon get advantage of Mavis and Emilies me thinks. If he's got CV at sea, they'll see them, you can't have a worse situation awarness then him, your recon assets are directly in theater while his are not.
Do you have patrol planes in Gili too?
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Sneer
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RE: EAGLE DAY my ass (II)

Post by Sneer »

i think that even if there is no enough emilys/mavis there it would be good to use 1 of betty groups on search
with 15-20 range i estimate that 50 planes is needed to be sure what is going on around
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RE: EAGLE DAY my ass (II)

Post by pauk »

Fish, i do have 20 or so Emilies on naval search at GG. But even those planes werent able to find the enemy convoy - subs detected it!... Sneer is right actually, Japanese recon sucks and i need more of them.

Unfortunatly i do not have enough bases to place them. Only AFs which can support LBA on naval search are Lae, Siador (close enough) and Rabaul, Torokina, Buin and Lunga (quite far away from the frontlines)...

the problem with Lae and Siador is that they are full of fighers and bombers which are needed for the air offensive against PM. And i'm not overstack my AFs - never - kind a gamey to me. But i will have to found the place for one LBA group - that is a must!
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WhoCares
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RE: EAGLE DAY my ass (II)

Post by WhoCares »

Mavis and Emilies are float planes and can be operated with an AV anchored at the base.
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Sneer
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RE: EAGLE DAY my ass (II)

Post by Sneer »

so Dobadura / buin would be perfect location for float patrols
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VSWG
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RE: EAGLE DAY my ass (II)

Post by VSWG »

Hi pauk,

nice screenshots! [:)]

Why not strike PM with KB from the hex (north)east of Buna? A sweep of your best fighter units from Buna would arrive before KB's strikes and attrit the enemy CAP. You would be safe from any flanking manouver of another Allied carrier fleet from the Coral Sea, too. If your strike is successful, you can still steam around GG at full speed and catch some cripples. If your not successful, you can easily retreat to Rabaul.
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Sneer
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RE: EAGLE DAY my ass (II)

Post by Sneer »

it is not a best idea to reveal carriers so early for so little
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PzB74
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RE: EAGLE DAY my ass (II)

Post by PzB74 »

Greetings Pauk-San!

An important battle ahead of you..no doubt.
It's a tricky question; should I go in or should I not.

Well, early 1943 and I would say go for it. Still, most of my carrier battles
ended in..not great successes [8|]

Worst FUBARS:
1. Carriers react
2. Fighters doesn't escort bombers
3. Too few bombers take of to hit the enemy

Very difficult to avoid all this: have you chosen aggressive or more careful commanders?
Personally it hasn't made much difference for me.

Still, I don't think Andy want to engage you in a cv battle right now. He got everything to
win by waiting. He will be running supply convoys to PM and perhaps try to fly in some ac
from his carriers.

So I would prepare for a CV battle, move in and slaughter the enemy convoys and hope for
a decisive victory over any carriers near PM.

Another big decision: What CAP setting will you use? I would suggest 60% - somehow I don't like
odd numbers [;)]

I would suggest the easy way in past Gili Gili. Provide as much LRCAP as possible, this made
my day in the Solomons while playing UV. Another danger is to follow enemy ships too close to
Oz and LBA. Don't! [;)]

Use your carriers as protection for your battlewagons on their way to bombard PM if you decide
it's worth a go against the pestersome PT boats.

Finally, use LOTS and LOTS of search planes. Cram more long range Emilys into your forward bases,
fly recon missions to Oz and PM. I would also use 2 fast scout units consisting of 1 CS and a single
destroyer. The CS can have some 20 ac, and while the Rufe's ain't worth the effort the long range Alf
type search planes can give you an edge. By maximizing your sub patrols, putting all Glens on naval
search, you increase the chance of detecting the enemy first. I often fly night fighter-bombers missions against
enemy bases as well.

Combine all your assets and deliver a telling blow! [8D]
The enemy will only get stronger, so there's nothing to wait for...

Banzai!! [:D] [&o]

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"The problem in defense is how far you can go without destroying from within what you are trying to defend from without"
- Dwight D. Eisenhower
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pauk
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RE: EAGLE DAY my ass (II)

Post by pauk »

VSWG - thanks for the compliments on maps - but i do think your maps are quite better. Keep up the good work! As for your idea, Sneer is right... our best weapon is that enemy don't know we are so close.....


Many thanks, PzB...

Yes it is a tricky question - and final decision will be only mine. If i screw it, than all critics will go to me (because i'm the only one who really (should) know actual situation 100 %), if i win i need to thanks you all guys. I really appreciate your help![:)]

My commanders should suit for their role, but you never know with the game. I'm trying to avoid FUBARs you've mentioned - each carrier division have less than 200 ac. Will it work i do no have clue....

Yes, there is still danger of unescorted strikes, i do remember your CV battles in the middle of the WiTP. So, my option would be waiting for enemy CVs under my LBA and IJA AF umbrella with strong CAP rather than this bold strike almost outside LBA range and without any port 3 base nearby... (someone would mention why you didn't expand GG or Buna and would be right - but the catch 22 is that Andy probably wouldn't go for PM or he would not play in that way - the latter is 100 % for sure).

I will recive two Unryus in next two months so you can understand my hestiation to go with such bold strike (and the fact that Andy will use 90 % CAP - im quite sure about that but can't gamble with that!!!!). Perhaps i could hurt him beter with two Unryus but until than PM won't be closed and i won't have a chance to even get closer PM!

LR CAP from GG is not possible at the moment - not enough air support and lvl 1 AF (don't be harsh guys on me it is impossible to keep an eye on all!) but i can move naval LBA to Lae and hurt his CAP.

But, you mad a point - the enemy will be stronger day by day and i can't count that i would have another chance.... so... no turn to Andy today, Imperial Pauk family have a material to think!

how it will look a like:

general Pauk:

well, my dearest nephew, wait an save your assests, you will recive new carriers and one Naval Praetorian Daitai (95+exp). Enemy will be fooled and wouldn't expect that you will force CV battle so late in the game, especially when we know that you've avoided dangerous situation so far... patience, patience and i can promise you will be remember as geatest of all admirals of all times....

admiral Paukashawa: Nothing wrong with that, but can't you realise that Allies becomes only stronger, day by day. I won't have another opportunity like that and we can caught him off guard. We have supperiority in figher quality, both the ac and our brave pilots. This will gonna change soon... no i think i should go for it. Didn't you listen our experts?

Anyway, if we lose, we can always complain on the forum how Japan is screwed in the game, right?
[;)][:'(][:D]
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Fishbed
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RE: EAGLE DAY my ass (II)

Post by Fishbed »

Yet I think the idea of using the Stanley range as a natural barrier is still interesting if it can avoid reacting, and make you unattackable. Killing fighters over PM, then sending bombers while he can't do anything with his short leg navy fighters, that's something! [:)]
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pauk
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RE: EAGLE DAY my ass (II)

Post by pauk »

not sure Fish if CVs will react directly towards enemy TF (and therefore "crash" into PNG) or, what is more logical follow sea route and react right down... this is most secure option in turn or two, but if my bombers doesn't attack PM he will transfer lots of corsairs there and i would lost any chance for naval bombardment of the PM base... i know, i know... i'm old grumpy creature....[:D]

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VSWG
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RE: EAGLE DAY my ass (II)

Post by VSWG »

ORIGINAL: Sneer

it is not a best idea to reveal carriers so early for so little

"So little"? [&:] I thought the enemy carries were at PM? I would strike them as long as they are in a base hex and the -50 % air operations modifier applies to them.

Edit: Crosspost. Good point.
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aztez
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RE: EAGLE DAY my ass (II)

Post by aztez »

Given the current date in this game the upcoming battle will be intresting. I would say that it is 50%-50% chance of either side winning this one.
 
 
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RE: EAGLE DAY my ass (II)

Post by AdmNelson »

With what you have massed-- I believe the time would be now. The Advantage of many carrier TFs is you get cap form all the TFs but only one carrier can hit at a time. This battle may as close as you can get to your back yard. Too bad GG can't give much as for air support, and Rabaul is as full as it can be with long zeros and betties. Good luck, all us will be watching.
Very Proud Marine Dad
Fishbed
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RE: EAGLE DAY my ass (II)

Post by Fishbed »

Greetings Pauk-San!

An important battle ahead of you..no doubt.
It's a tricky question; should I go in or should I not.
Don't listen to jaleous saboteurs peacemongers like PzB! [:D]
However, if i do nothing there, my AF can say goodbye China.

Stop hesitating: you'd better take good old Walter Sobchak's advice on China and about making your stand in PM!
  

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What the f*ck are you talking about? The chinaman is not the issue here, Dude. I'm talking about drawing a line in the sand, Dude. Across this line, you DO NOT...

here's A respected and successful veteran's opinion on these matters is always invaluable [;)] 
Remember Khe San!
Draw your own line in the New Guinean jungle, they shall no pass! [:'(]
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pauk
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RE: EAGLE DAY my ass (II)

Post by pauk »

After a long discussion betwen two most influenced leaders at Imperial HQ, the Emperor approwed AB-go. B wariant of this extremely cuning[8|] plan probably won't happen cause i do not intent to go into PTs nest. We shall see how much PTs are at PM tomorrow, and after that we will decide what with "B" variant (and also decide on my future moves and counter-measures against uber-PTs).

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AB also stands fro "Achtung baby" if anyone is interested.... our plan was approved after deep analysis about current situation:

1. Extremely bad weather could prevent our strikes from Lae and Siador so this is one of reasons for naval/AF attack. Hopefully my army bombers will fly at least in one phase. On the other side, T-storms could hide KB just one more turn and Mobile carrier strike force can get into better attacking position. All fighers at Lae and Siador are on escort duty.

2. We are aware that enemy CVs could protect enemy transports sailing towards PM. In that case our Army AF will be decimated and perhaps slaughered! But this is a calculated risk and i'm ready to sacrify even 100 army bombers if that would mean a decisive victory against enemy CVs in the Coral sea.

3. All TB, DB and figters on CVs are limited to 4 hex. We want to move closer PM sea route hidden.

So, the peak of the AB-go should happen a day after tomorrow....

In the best scenario, my Army bombers would attack enemy tranports which would be protected with CAP from enemy CVs while KB will remain unspoted. Next turn we could deliver a mortal blow to enemy from KB and naval LBA which will be transfered to Lae next turn....From now we can only hope that Andy will become hasty and greedy....

I know that i'm dancing on thin line, but this is a best option to keep agressivity while not being stupid in the same time. BANZAI!

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