VSWG vs. Gary - The Allied perspective

[ctangus]

ORIGINAL: VSWG

Can I conclude some minimum sys/flt damage from this?

I've never tested it but I have some (too much! [:'(]) practical experience absorbing torpedos into my BBs in my non-AAR game.

Maybe 10 sys & 20 flt on average??? But with a large standard deviation.

[Rob Brennan UK]

Congratulations ! .. just watched the stringbags torpedeo bismark in the old 60's classic .. imagine the sides switched at i'm watching witP in real life on the telly [:D]

[VSWG]

First of all, sorry for the dancing bananas, I got a little carried away yesterday... [:D]

Second, I still don't have the save, and have to work with some screenshots I made during the combat replay.

Third, some replies:

ORIGINAL: Rob Brennan UK

Looking at the big picture its going well for you imo. minor setback in the pacific. More importantly you sent out the div from PH early. i'm guessing that johnson and palmyra have the other /b /c regiments?
on an atoll he will need a very big stick indeed to shift them out.

Yes, 90 % of /B is already at Johnston Island, /C is still at Pearl, prepping for Palmyra (no reinforcements do far). The 2nd Marines are at Pearl, too.

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Great News!![&o][&o][&o]
A few questions??
Will Gary send KB on a high speed run South to try to salvage his BB's?? If so, how long would it take??
Will Gary not send in KB, but rather send mini-KB to try to provide air cover??

Did any of your DB's and their 1000lb bombs actually penetrate his deck armor on those BB's??

It is nice to know where KB is so you can plan accordingly. [;)]

Looking forward to an update this weekend. [:D]

This should answer most questions:



Several points to keep in mind:

• KB has already raided several convoys during the last turns, so plane ops might be an issue
• KB has refueled last turn, west of French Frigate Shoal, so its tanks should be full
• I assume a replenishment TF is near Baker Island (several TK's sighted two days ago). However, I strongly doubt that Gary planned to send KB into this area, so there might not be enough fuel for all his carriers in SoPac.
• My own fuel situation isn't that good either: Pago Pago is now empty after my carriers refueled here two days ago. A 20.000 cap. AO is unloading here ATM, another one is at Suva. Next fuel depots are Palmyra (12.000) and Penhyrn (8.000).
• Planes: Several Dauntless should be out of action on board my carriers, but Mini KB's raid on my cruisers had damaged lots of Kates, too. Zeros and Wildcats should be OK. KB didn't have any losses.
• There are at least 4 I-boats at Canton Island, while I have three submarines between Canton Island and Baker.
• nygiants59, no penetrating hits by the DB's, but 2 AA mounts on Hyuga were destroyed.

To be honest, I'm glad that I don't have the save yet and have some time to think about the next turn.

Do I want to take on Mini KB? I have weak AA escorts (but Gary doesn't know that), and would have to deal with the Zero bonus. Sadly, there are no fighters at Canton Island that could help CAP my carriers. On the other hand, will Gary risk Mini KB against all 4 US carriers? Or can I hunt down his cripples and maybe the Canton Island invasion convoy unmolested during the next turn, before running away from KB? Should I run now, and be content with the immense damage I inflicted without losing anything in return? In this case, would he try to invade Canton Island again?

I could send my carriers just outside of Mini KB's range to Baker, so that he would have to sprint all the way if he wants to force a CV vs. CV engagement. Our carriers might react, though. But if I can catch those TK's at Baker and he runs out of fuel this could become a major disaster for him... or for me...

What to do, what to do...

Discuss!

[ny59giants]

First priority is what is your regress route?? Do you plan to escape whatever he does by going...East, NE, or SE??. Anything else seems to be asking for trouble. [:-]

Second, plan your move to avoid contact with KB at all cost. You have done well my young Jedi.

Third, I would set your CAP over your CV's at 70% or better as you don't want to lose them right now (or get one damaged enough that he can sink it easily). You will need to calculate so your TB's can get to his BB's (they have a range of only 2 in your game, right??) and your DB's can plant 1000lb on his CVL/CVE.

I would work on getting Mini-KB as your offensive priority with the cripple BB's secondary. Max out your reaction range. Click on individual hexes to see what the forecast is for the second day to make sure you can stay around or have bad waether to run into if needed. [;)] Give yourself two more days of combat and then....GET THE HELL OUT OF THERE!!!

[stldiver]

At the distance the KB is away, definatly give it one more turn. I agree with ny59giants, cap higher to compensate for low AA and set your forces to naval attack. I would attempt for the BB's, and the mini KB should be in the same area. I don't know his personality but most people would try to put some protection over the BB's or at least attempt to stop you. Can Baker fly defensive cap for Japanese?

I would not stick around for two turns, let the KB raise sys damage with 2 high speed rushes and consume fuel, while you pull back to safety. Time is definatly on your side.

One other point, good chance a couple of BB's go down without help, but with your CV's there I would give it a go for one more day, not many times you will have this opportunity.

[ctangus]

Yep, try to finish off the BBs. Try to stay away from Baby-KB (as you mentioned, the zero bonus is still high), but chances are you'd do ok in such an engagement, so I wouldn't worry about it too much.

In my '43 game, despite sinking 2, the Jap BBs are now more of a pain-in-the-b*** than the CVs. IMO they're a more worthy target long-term.

I should add, follow my advice at your own risk. [;)]

BTW, I liked the dancing bananas.

[Ron Saueracker]

Wow. [X(] All I can say is I hope Gary is a commited player! I've seen folks suddenly experience "tragic or unforseen personal or real life issues" which prohibits them from continuing the game.

[VSWG]

Still no turn, but I'm not worried... Gary won't quit, Ron. I'm glad about the extra time to ponder about the next turns - probably the most interesting days of this PBEM lie ahead of us, lets savor them! [:)]

Thanks for the comments, guys, I appreciate them! I had a closer look at Mini KB today - see below. BTW, I overestimated the speed of Mini KB, of course it can't move 12 hexes like KB. The amount of Zeros this TF can field is frightening, but I don't think that the Kates can do much damage, while in return my Dauntless would turn his carriers into mincemeat (barring an unfortunate 5 hex-attack). So I'm going to heed your advice and stick around for another day, maybe two. Now I'm working on the details.

I think Gary will retreat Mini KB towards the Ellice Islands, where my carriers can't reach them. Reasoning: Even if Mini KB manages to put a fish (maybe) or two (unlikely) into a US CV, Mini KB will likely be sunk in return because of the sheer amount of Dauntless I can throw against it. Why risk Mini KB for a questionable gain (an Essex in 1943)?

Now I can

A) Try to intercept Mini KB on day 2 somewhere south of Tarawa. Low risk, high gain, but a I might miss Mini KB and waisted a perfectly good chance to sink some crippled BB's and an invasion convoy.

B) Go for the BB's. They might move north, towards KB (B1), or west towards Baker (B2) [it's a level 1 AF, stldiver, but without base force]. B1 might lead to a battle against Mini KB. Downside: I might make the wrong choice, and end up in the wrong spot.

C) Move towards Baker, and maybe catch one of the less damaged BB's, or the invasion convoy, or those TK's that have been spotted at Baker some days ago. If there really is a replenishment TF, this could be the killer move for this operation: without fuel, KB might be forced to stay in CentPac, near it's own replenishment TF (near Midway) and the (assumed) fuel depot at Wake. High chance of hitting something, but also high risk: moving closer to KB, sub-infested waters, farther away from my fuel depot at Pago Pago.

D) Split my carriers, and move 2 to B1, and 2 to C. Slightly suicidal, but high chance of sinking lots of stuff.



Right now I'm leaning towards C).

[VSWG]

ORIGINAL: ctangus

ORIGINAL: VSWG

Can I conclude some minimum sys/flt damage from this?

I've never tested it but I have some (too much! [:'(]) practical experience absorbing torpedos into my BBs in my non-AAR game.

Maybe 10 sys & 20 flt on average??? But with a large standard deviation.

I meant to ask if there's fixed sys/flt/fire damage threshold for ships to be put into an escort TF.

Sadly, the manual is not precise:

6.1.7.1 Automatic Ship Separation From TF due to Damage and Loss of Speed

A badly damaged ship may automatically split off from its current TF and form its own TF (so it
won’t slow the main force down). This will happen if a ship:

- Is badly damaged, and is either in a Fast Transport TF or in a Surface Combat, Mine
Warfare, or Bombardment TF with a Patrol/Retreat status of Retirement Allowed. This
will happen if the ship’s maximum speed drops below 25 knots.
- Belongs to any other type of TF (except Escort TF ships, which wil always stay with the
TF they’re escorting), and its maximum speed drops below 5 knots. This slow speed
could be due to either the ship always being slow, damage to the ship, and/or the ship
being considered low on fuel and unable to steam at the required speed (unless it is able
to immediately refuel).
- Is damaged and has a significant speed differential from other ships in the TF (for this
purpose speeds over 25 are counted as 25).

Your estimates sound good to me, but I think that each consecutive torpedo/bomb hit does (on average) more damage than the one before (the damage die roll takes the status of the ship into account). But that's just an assumption based on few experiences.

[ctangus]

ORIGINAL: VSWG

I meant to ask if there's fixed sys/flt/fire damage threshold for ships to be put into an escort TF.

There seems to be, but I haven't figured it out. A quick guess would be 50+ combined sys/flt damage. Or maybe 75-100+ sys/flt/fire.

Your estimates sound good to me, but I think that each consecutive torpedo/bomb hit does (on average) more damage than the one before (the damage die roll takes the status of the ship into account). But that's just an assumption based on few experiences.

I haven't particularly noticed that myself, but you could well be right.

I kept my estimates on the conservative side, BTW.

I vote for option C, also. Successful or not you still have another day to hunt down the cripples (the B plan) if you decide to take the risk. Do you have any patrol planes or level bombers you could send to Canton for naval search?

Another note: Kaga's top speed is 28 or 29 IIRC. He can move 12 hexes/turn only if he detaches her.

[Rob Brennan UK]

quote:

Your estimates sound good to me, but I think that each consecutive torpedo/bomb hit does (on average) more damage than the one before (the damage die roll takes the status of the ship into account). But that's just an assumption based on few experiences.

I think thats based on accumulating damage, i.e torp hit slows the ship so its easier to hit with further waves. bomb hits up the sys damage which i think make it easier to hit with bombs ( maybe this is a function of fire damage instead/additional ? )

For my 2p .. go for the BB's .. its points in the bank for one and you will not regret sinking these beasts while you can. from reading PzB's AAR the japanese BB's become more useful as the CV's get less effective vs the allied equivalents.

and good luck

[VSWG]

Gary wants to take a "sabbatical". Fine with me, I even thought about starting a second PBEM, and this break would give me the time necessary to manage the first turns of a new game.

This game WILL CONTINUE, however. 

[Ron Saueracker]

ORIGINAL: VSWG

Gary wants to take a "sabbatical". Fine with me, I even thought about starting a second PBEM, and this break would give me the time necessary to manage the first turns of a new game.

This game WILL CONTINUE, however. 

Uh, oh...[:D]

[Akos Gergely]

Great game so far, I hope very much that your opponent won't quit though.

Also you did a great job with this AAR visually and for a nice addition I strongly recommend you the ship art packages done by Fremen; those would truly make this AAR an eyecandy !

[VSWG]

Thank you very much csatahajos. [8D]

Well, at least I should tell you what else happened on this day, even without access to the actual save.

January 23rd, 1942

DEI:

The turn started quite bad, with the following message popping up - to my utter and complete amazement: [X(]



How the h*ll did that transport TF get there without being spottet by my patrol planes!?! [:@] Just great, a freak landing on Java. No combat happend this day, and I'm going to fly in as many combat squads as I can to Malang tomorrow. There's a base force present, and some US Engineers from Manila, which I wanted to evacuate to Darwin in a couple of turns. No intel on the enemy forces so far.

The TF was attacked by all kinds of planes from Soerabaja and Batavia, but only few bombs found the enemey ships:

Day Air attack on TF, near Malang at 22,66
 
Allied aircraft
Martin 139 x 39
Hudson I x 28
P-40B Tomahawk x 6
B-17E Fortress x 12 
 
No Allied losses
 
Japanese Ships
AP Kashiwa Maru, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
AK Koryu Maru
AK Kyokko Maru
DD Shinonome
AP Tsuruga Maru
AP Takuei Maru
AK Kikukawa Maru
AP Teikyo Maru
AP Takunan Maru
AK Shingetsu Maru
AP Baikal Maru
AP Kogi Maru
AP Ginyo Maru
AP Takasago Maru
AK Taigen Maru
AP Astuga Maru
DD Minekaze
AK Kirikawa Maru
AK Tokai Maru
AP Daigen Maru
AK Kenyo Maru
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on TF, near Malang at 22,66
  
Allied aircraft
B-17D Fortress x 11
B-17E Fortress x 3
  
Allied aircraft losses
B-17D Fortress: 1 damaged
 
Japanese Ships
AP Takasago Maru
CS Chiyoda
AP Kiyoshima Maru
AP Daitei Maru, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
AP Ryotaku Maru

I don't think my pilots realized how dire the situation is...

Amboina fell today - but only after a CL and DD spanked the Japanese transport TF:



AVD Arend, the tender that serviced the float planes at Sorong, had orders to retreat from Sorong (besieged) to a dot base near Amboina, but was obviously set to "patrol, reaction range 6", because at night it sprinted back to Sorong to attack the invasion TF. [8|] The outcome was predictable:

Night Time Surface Combat, near Sorong at 44,74
 
Japanese Ships
DD Kuroshio
AP Hie Maru
AP Hakone Maru
 
Allied Ships
AVD Arend, Shell hits 8, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk

Sorong fell, too. Basically Gary has conquered most of the DEI during the last turns (except Timor), and has already gained a foothold on Java. A gim situation here, it's not even February!

BB Kongo and Yamashiro visited Singkawang tonight, but itheir bombardment inflicted no serious damage to the base.

Singapore, Manila:

Just the usual bombardment attacks.

China:

Another Japanese deliberate attack failed at Nanchang - great, as long as he's losing I'll stay and let my troops gain valuable experience.

SWPac:

Nothing to report.

SoPac:

Well, besided the big battle at Canton Island, Gary landed on Wallis Island, and his tiny landing force was covered by Mini KB. [:D]

CentPac:

Midway is safe!



With DD Monaghan the last cripple of KB's raid sunk today.

Gary's CentPac strategy is definitely in shambles, the two thrusts have been repulsed! DEI is looking very good for him, however, so I don't think he's "potentially looking at a long one sided war here", as he wrote in an email. Anyway, lets hope that this PBEM will continue soon...

[VSWG]

[aztez]

That was an nasty and bold move at Malang! [:(] Hopefully you can reorganize your defensive perimeter at DEI. Also if he did not bring in enough troops there maybe you can recapture the base too! [;)]

[VSWG]

Gary just sent me the save for the "Canton Island" turn... [:)] ...and what can I say, we were out-of-sync... [:@]  "Only" 8 TTs hit enemy battleships (in two seperate strikes) at Canton Island... [:(]

Day Air attack on TF, near Canton Island at 100,100
 
Allied aircraft
F4F-3 Wildcat x 29
F4F-4 Wildcat x 10
SBD-3 Dauntless x 36
TBD Devastator x 33
  
Allied aircraft losses
SBD-3 Dauntless: 20 damaged
TBD Devastator: 1 destroyed, 28 damaged
 
Japanese Ships
BB Ise, Torpedo hits 1,  on fire
BB Nagato
BB Hyuga, Bomb hits 3, Torpedo hits 2,  on fire
BB Mutsu
CL Kinu
CS Mizuho, Bomb hits 1,  on fire,  heavy damage

-----------------------
Day Air attack on TF, near Canton Island at 100,100
 
Allied aircraft
F4F-3 Wildcat x 22
F4F-4 Wildcat x 10
SBD-3 Dauntless x 100
TBD Devastator x 41
  
Allied aircraft losses
SBD-3 Dauntless: 10 damaged
TBD Devastator: 6 damaged
 
Japanese Ships
BB Ise, Bomb hits 3,  on fire
BB Mutsu, Bomb hits 8, Torpedo hits 1,  on fire
BB Nagato, Bomb hits 6, Torpedo hits 3,  on fire
DD Hatsushimo
BB Hyuga, Bomb hits 7, Torpedo hits 1,  on fire

My PT boats attacked the battline at Canton, and this combat reports suggests that the Japanase heavies aren't mortally wounded (no heavy damage reported, no BBs split off into an escort TF):

Day Time Surface Combat, near Canton Island at 100,100
 
Japanese Ships
BB Nagato,  on fire
BB Mutsu,  on fire
BB Ise,  on fire
BB Hyuga,  on fire,  heavy damage
CL Kinu
DD Yugumo
DD Hatsuharu
DD Nenohi
DD Hatsushimo
DD Wakaba
 
Allied Ships
PT PT-26
PT PT-27
PT PT-28, Shell hits 3, and is sunk
PT PT-29
PT PT-30
PT PT-42, Shell hits 2

Everything else seems to be the same. On the plus side, CS Chiyoda got hit by a torpedo at Malang, so two CS are now heavily damaged (both were not attacked in my replay). No need to be disappointed, I guess.

No change in plans, I will move all my carriers to a hex between Canton and Baker Island and set my Dautless to range 4, so that they can (at max range) attack shipping at Baker (replenishment TF?) and Canton (invasion convoy pulling through?) should the BBs escape. I'm seriously scared by the amount of I-boats in the Canton Island hex (6 reported), so wish me luck... The good news is that I only lost 3 Dauntless and 2 Devastators to Flak/Ops at Canton Island. [X(] Jap. AA really sucks at the beginning of the war... 1 squadron of Dauntless and 1 Devastator squadron have lots of damaged planes, but the rest are almost entirely intact! Morale and fatigue are very good, too, so there's really no reason to break off the attack before KB arrives I'm even ready to take on Mini KB (reaction range = 6, but I have to pray that my 4 carrier TFs stick together)...

[Rob Brennan UK]

I can't see why Gary want a break ? his DEI is going very well and thats the theatre that really matters rather than a pacific buffer.
Is this his 1st PBEM ? as if he's used to spanking the AI then any PBEM even vs an incompetant looks worse [:D].(not you obviously)

His pacific zone looks huge anyway ! .. thankfully its not stock map or he'd be cutting off australia [;)].

I find having 2 PBEMS makes sense and one is usually in the slow lane at any one time and IF both are going quick 1turn/day for each isn't too bad unless your doing an AAR (esp like the visual feast you provide).

This has been one of the most interesting and best presented AAR's ever imo. I like your surface risks in the DEI as and Sir Robin game is deathly dull for both players and readers imo. And no-one can accuse you of being combat shy [;)]

fingers crossed his sabbatical isn;t permanent , but as Ron commented i think a lot of people here have had many many bailers over the years.

Good luck

[ctangus]

I agree with Rob - two or more PBEMs help a lot as far as continuing despite setbacks. If you're getting spanked in one, hopefully you're doing at least okay in the other. [;)] Painful experience talking here...

Well, Gary's continuing so that's good news.

ORIGINAL: VSWG

but I have to pray that my 4 carrier TFs stick together)...

This advice might be too late, but here it is anyway: Order your CV TF with the most-aggressive commander to your destination hex. Order the 3 other CV TFs to follow it (with patrol/do-not-retire set). If your lead TF reacts the following-ones should as well.