VSWG vs. Gary - The Allied perspective

[Przemcio231]

Well if you are sure that this is the Mini KB maybe you should hit it with your 4 CV's[:D] Great AAR BTW i really like the pics...

[Rob Brennan UK]

Nemo -"Obviously you have to calculate this properly but remember the thing that causes MOST attacks in the real world to fail is an over-valuation of the enemy's strength such that the attack is never made in the first place."

Or just guess like i do [:D]

I'd unload at pago just in case FYI. esp the 72 planes .. could be horible to lost that at sea . and the extra cap would help. i think that land based LR cap is pretty useless covering CV's ( there is some sort of penalty) so don't count on it.

Time is your friend here, be agressive when it's 99% safe to do so or the rewards are excellent, risking your CV's for an unknown is a bit too much of a gamble in my book. And jusy having your Cv's alive stops rampant japanese behaviour just by being alive (esp when unspotted) [;)]

I also think your AAR is becoming one of the most favoured here by a lot of folks, beautifully presented and well written .. praise where it is due.

good luck

[Nemo121]

Land-based LRCAP covering a CV TF works at only 25% of optimal capacity... Add in a few other modifiers and LRCAP of CV TFs soon becomes almost useless. Of course, since CVs are so important investing a couple of hundred planes on LRCAP in order to stop 1 or 2 CVs getting hit and sunk is often well worth it so "almost useless" is a relative term.

[witpqs]

What is the range of your Catalina search planes? I ask because in stock they are too short (versus IRL), but other mods made them longer (giving you a greater margin).

[ny59giants]

2. Move the convoy to Pago Pago (CAP: 35 Mohawks, 11 P40Bs) and start unloading, don't move the carriers (forecast for Pago Pago: clear, southeastern temperate: overcast). My carriers probably won't be spotted, but my 2 Catalina squadrons at Pago and the planes from Canton and Suva will probably tell me what's going on here. Low risk (I doubt he's going to attack Pago Pago), I still have the option to attack tomorrow (especially if he spots the convoy and decides to attack Pago Pago), but I might lose my only opportunity to jump on Mini KB.

3. As 2, but move the carriers closer to Pago Pago, set react to 6 and LRCAP the carriers from Pago Pago. If he attacks Pago Pago, my carriers will jump him, if not he will spot them.

I would go with #3. However, I would move your CV's to about one hex away from Pago Pago (SW of base) and set your reaction to only 3 or 4. I would want to reinforce Pago Pago and ensure that there is nothing in waiting to the north (ambush).

As a side note, what is the port and airfield size at Pago Pago??
How long do you think it will take to unload the troops/planes (not all the supply and fuel)??

[VSWG]

ORIGINAL: Rob Brennan UK

I thought the german was "Stimmung" .. well according to babelfish it is [:D]

That's a weird translation. "Stimmung" means temper, spirit, mood.

Nemo,
thanks for the formula. I'll do the math later, but now it all depends on Gary, and if he decides to launches another deliberate attack without reinforcing his troops at Manila. Some small convoys started to appear around Luzon, but only AKs are reported.

ORIGINAL: ctangus

Does the CHS 2.+ build have resources in Manila? I assume there are some at Clark. What other Jap forces are there in the Phillipines?

No resources or industry at Manila. Naga, Lingayen and San Fernando have 125, Tuguegarao 100 and Clark 25 resource centers. I doubt that Gary has any other combat troops on Luzon. 4 units are reported from Clark, 2 from Bataan, 1 from Lucena and 2 from Naga.

csatahajos,
thank you very much! [:)] I started adding some more shipsides to CHS, but I cannot simply replace the files in the art folder as the CHS files differ from stock. First I have to look up the correct CHS file in the editor, then rename Fremen's files, and only then I move them to the WitP folder. I did it for a couple of files, but then used Andrew's loading utility to install a new map file - and it reinstalled the complete art folder again and I lost all changes. Since then I didn't do it again.

I think you have to think about if trading one of your fleet CVs for one or two of his smaller ones does worth the risk. If You say yes then retreat the convoy temporarily and get your CVs into a position where you'd be able to attack from two hexes next turn (that's the TBDs torpedo range in this version right?)

Simple answer: No, I don't want to trade carriers. I'm going to lose the DEI early, so 1942 will last very long for me. With the DEI conquered in Feb. 1942 and his fleet intact (minus BBs [;)] ) Gary can create a death star of divisions, escort it with KB and basically hop through CentPac, SoPac, or SWPac. The only way to keep him moderately honest is an intact fleet of Allied CVs.

BTW when do you get Hornet?

Hornet will arrive in 33 days at Panama.

[VSWG]

ORIGINAL: Przemcio231

Well if you are sure that this is the Mini KB maybe you should hit it with your 4 CV's[:D] Great AAR BTW i really like the pics...

I probably would if I could get Gary to hold still for once... [:D] I doubt he's going to stick around Wallis Island.

What happened to your own AAR, the one with the many screenshots?

Rob, Nemo,
yeah, LRCAP'ing carriers is pretty useless - but sometimes, a couple of planes can make the difference...

ORIGINAL: witpqs

What is the range of your Catalina search planes? I ask because in stock they are too short (versus IRL), but other mods made them longer (giving you a greater margin).

It's 9 (normal) and 12 (extended). I didn't know it's different from stock. 2 squadrons at Pago Pago and Canton Island, 1 at Suva, but here and on Canton Island I've got some A-29 Hudsons's, too, and their range is 15/11! Set to naval attack with 50 % naval search.

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

I would go with #3. However, I would move your CV's to about one hex away from Pago Pago (SW of base) and set your reaction to only 3 or 4. I would want to reinforce Pago Pago and ensure that there is nothing in waiting to the north (ambush).

As a side note, what is the port and airfield size at Pago Pago??
How long do you think it will take to unload the troops/planes (not all the supply and fuel)??

Pago Pago has a level 3 port and a level 1 airfield. I just checked the convoy, and to my own surprise I was very generous with AP loading space: most of the troop transports carry only 20 % troops, so they should unload quickly - excactly what I need right now! Am I psychic or what? [:)]

The convoy near Pago Pago can move three hexes per phase, the slower APs and AKs are in the second convoy, several days behind. I've divided most LCUs between both convoys as a security measure.

---

Okay, I finally sent the turn, and I went with option 2.5. [:)] I noticed that I can move the carriers one hex closer to Pago Pago and still be in the southeastern temperate, (hopefully) covered under clouds from the Emilys at Wallis Island tomorrow. The convoy will move to Pago Pago and start unloading without air over from the CVs - it wasn't spotted so far, ergo Gary doesn't now it's here, ergo he has no reason to attack Pago Pago. I think he moved Mini KB to Wallis Island because he thought I would try to retake the Island - if he wanted to raid the Samoan Islands, he could have done so already. Next turn the convoy will be spotted, so I will move in the carriers to protect it again. Unless, of course, KB shows up.

Oh, and I forgot to add that my carriers have extremely weak escorts - remember the two surface TF's I split off at Canton Island to hunt his damaged BBs? They had to head northeast, towards a different replenishment TF (lack of fuel at Pago Pago) and they will stay in this area for now. That means I have only 10 DDs and 2 CAs as carrier escorts, and I need 4 TFs to avoid the Allied max AC penalty - you do the math. Tomorrow I can add the 5 Mahans escorting the convoy to the carrier TFs, another reason to wait one day until I reveal the presence of my carriers in order to CAP the convoy. As I said, I think I can keep them uncovered for one more turn... and then it's Feb. 1st, with another point of the Zero bonus gone.

Edit: Reaction range of my carriers will be set to 6, just in case.

[ctangus]

ORIGINAL: VSWG
That means I have only 10 DDs and 2 CAs as carrier escorts, and I need 4 TFs to avoid the Allied max AC penalty - you do the math.

[X(] Early game I'm unhappy if I don't have 3 cruisers & 9 destoyers to escort each and every CV. Yikes!

However, your plans near Pago-Pago seem sound to me. Good luck!

(No sage advice to add, unfortunately.)

[VSWG]

Meh, this whole foray into SoPac wasn't supposed to be like this. [:D] I was merely hunting for a small Canton Island invasion convoy... Now, suddenly, I'm battling KB, Mini KB and a whole bunch of BBs... Geez, if I had known...

I went with 2 carrier TFs BTW. A last minute change before I sent the safe. Mini KB has only Kates, which are very vulnerable to AA, so I'm willing to take the strike coordination penality in exchange for a better protection of my carriers.

[timtom]

ORIGINAL: VSWG

Timtom,
the Philippines aren't on Gary's radar right now - he's pouring everything into CentPac/SoPac and Java at the moment.

I guess the point would be to change that state of affairs...

[Rob Brennan UK]

ORIGINAL: VSWG

Meh, this whole foray into SoPac wasn't supposed to be like this. [:D] I was merely hunting for a small Canton Island invasion convoy... Now, suddenly, I'm battling KB, Mini KB and a whole bunch of BBs... Geez, if I had known...

I went with 2 carrier TFs BTW. A last minute change before I sent
the safe. Mini KB has only Kates, which are very vulnerable to AA, so I'm willing to take the strike coordination penality in exchange for a better protection of my carriers.

Ah thats what i love about this game, nothing is ever as planned [;)]

[ny59giants]

I guess my biggest fear as the Allied player in the opening months is the lost of some or all of the East Pacific Island chain - Hawaii, Line Islands, Canton Island, Pago Pago, and Suva. The Japanese player has hindsight and the lost of those islands can seriously set back an Allied counteroffensive in '43 and beyond. You have made it costly for him and may be able to use it to cause him to re-think it and thus allow you to fight harder in the SRA without KB and Co. running amok.[:D]

I wish there was a way to program the game to speed up the flow of reinforcements if Hawaii is invaded as I believe FDR would have done so. But this game to date for you has not been boring.

[VSWG]

January 30th, 1942

Malaya:

Another irrelevant air raid on Singapore:

Day Air attack on Singapore , at 22,51
 
Japanese aircraft (@ 10.000 feet)
G5N Liz x 12
Ki-43-Ib Oscar x 31
Ki-48-I Lily x 9
Ki-49 Helen x 7
 
Allied aircraft
no flights
 
Japanese aircraft losses
G5N Liz: 1 destroyed, 10 damaged
Ki-48-I Lily: 1 destroyed, 3 damaged
Ki-49 Helen: 7 damaged
 
Allied aircraft losses
OS2U-3 Kingfisher: 1 destroyed
  
Allied ground losses:
20 casualties reported
 
Airbase hits 2
Runway hits 4

Only 1 Liz was shot down by Flak according to Intel. The daily bombardment attack caused 238 casualties in Singapore - up from approx. 150 during the last days.

DEI:

The trail of tears for the Japanese convoy continues: In the AM phase, Bali and the main convoy were covered by rain, but the LB from Madioen and Soerabaja jumped on the cripples. To cut it short, there are no cripples left now... In the PM phase, Soerabaja airmen couldn't fly, but the "healthy convoy" was attacked from from Madioen - only few hits were scored, though.

Status of the Japanese convoy:

29 AK: sunk: 9, heavy damage: 1, slight damage: 3
34 AP: sunk: 14, heavy damage: 0, slight damage: 9
1 CS: sunk
11 DD: sunk: 4
2 MSW: sunk: 2
2 PC
2 PG: sunk: 1
Gary must be worried that I'm running out of targets, so he sent another, new convoy carrying troops to Java - again without air cover or armored escorts... [&:]

Day Air attack on TF at 27,66
 
Allied aircraft
A-24 Dauntless x 34 
 
Allied aircraft losses
A-24 Dauntless: 2 damaged
 
Japanese Ships
DD Tsuga, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
AK Udo Maru
AP Kisaragi Maru
AK Shun Yuan
AP Tofuku Maru, Bomb hits 1
AK Arimasan Maru
 
Japanese ground losses:
25 casualties reported
--------------------------------
Day Air attack on TF at 27,66
  
Allied aircraft
Martin 139 x 51
  
Allied aircraft losses
Martin 139: 1 damaged
 
Japanese Ships
AK Arimasan Maru, Bomb hits 1
AK Toyohara Maru
AP Tofuku Maru, Bomb hits 2,  on fire
AK Udo Maru, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
DD Tsuga,  on fire
AP Kisaragi Maru, Bomb hits 1
AK Shun Yuan
 
Japanese ground losses:
128 casualties reported



In another day of glorious submarine action, my silent hunters did not fire a single torpedo. [8|] Instead, SS Perch caught a critical hit and has to return to Soerabaja (35/41/0). [:@]

Instead of LRCAP'ing is convoys, Gary used his 42 Zeros at Balikpapan for another sweep of Soerabaja, finding no resistance. I'm not complaining...

Philippines:

Japanese bombardment attack inflicts 147 casualties. 24 aviation support squads of the 4th USAAF Base Force are already at Cagayan. I'll fly in some more tomorrow.

China:

At Nanchang, equal sized forced are facing each other (around 2000 AV) in a stalemate. 138 casualties were lost to the Japanese bombardment attack today, but experience is increasing slowly.

SoPac:

Well, nothing happened, and Mini KB disappeard. The Warhawks and most of the troops have already unloaded, and Emilys spotted only a single ship at Pago Pago. So I've decided to keep the carriers where they are, a couple of hexes to the southeast, with max react set to 6. They will stay there until the convois have unloaded, or something important happens somewhere else.
Most of the suff being unloaded at Pago Pago right now is actually intended for Savaii or Upolo, but I will move the units later, with Dakotas, Fast Transport TFs and some AKs. Right now I need every engineer / aviation support squad on Pago Pago anyway, to increase the AFB size to 2 (36 % already).

At Baker Island, AK Montreal Maru and MSW Sonobe Maru sink (damaged near Canton Island)

CentPac:

A PC and a PG escorting the returning Midway convoy (now at Wake Island) sink at night. Gary is losing ships left and right at the moment (at least 10 today).

---

Gary's on vacation until Monday, so there will be a short break in this AAR.

[VSWG]

ORIGINAL: timtom

ORIGINAL: VSWG

Timtom,
the Philippines aren't on Gary's radar right now - he's pouring everything into CentPac/SoPac and Java at the moment.

I guess the point would be to change that state of affairs...

I'll do my very best, timtom. [;)] But I need another failed Jap. deliberate attack...

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

I guess my biggest fear as the Allied player in the opening months is the lost of some or all of the East Pacific Island chain - Hawaii, Line Islands, Canton Island, Pago Pago, and Suva. The Japanese player has hindsight and the lost of those islands can seriously set back an Allied counteroffensive in '43 and beyond. You have made it costly for him and may be able to use it to cause him to re-think it and thus allow you to fight harder in the SRA without KB and Co. running amok.[:D]

He tried taking my SLOC on the cheap, early and with the excact knowledge of my OoB. He failed. He can still take those islands, using several divisions and KB after the fall of the DEI, but it won't be easy if I manage to keep all my carriers.

But this game to date for you has not been boring.

I tend to agree! [;)] Funnily enough, I had the most fun during both Walking Mountain operations - despite the fact that they ended as complete disasters! I must be masochistic... [:D]

[Akos Gergely]

I hope this game is not dead yet, it is my favourite here, so would be nice to see some updates !

[Rob Brennan UK]

PM'd VSWG, opponent went away for a bit, so this will carry on i hope

[VSWG]

Well, that's only one part of the story. Gary has been back since a week now, but then I started working overtime (why can't those things happen at the same time?!). And then there are these intense discussions about the RHS Tag Team Mod in the scenario forum...

Excuses, excuses... We have played about 5 turns, and I'll start updating this AAR again soon. Today I'm just going to fill you in about the 2 major events of these 5 days, but during the next days I'll write some more detailed reports - theater by theater, until we're up to date. After that I hope I have the time to continue with daily updates.

---

Okay, just the basics for now:

SoPac: The 4 US carriers were lurking southeast of Pago Pago during these days, covering the first part of the large convoy carrying troops (RCTs, Base Forces, Engineers), planes (3 Warhawk squadrons!) and supplies/fuel to the Samoan Islands (Operation Passenger). Mini KB was in the area and was sighted a couple of times about 15 hexes to the northwest of Pago Pago, but the convoy unloaded all troops and planes unmolested, and then retreated before all supplies were unloaded- just to be sure. Then an I-boat entered the hex with my carriers... [:(]
Luckily, it torpedoed "only" a DD (still afloat at Pago), but the other escorts jumped at it, so my position was compromised. KB was last seen a week ago at Kwajalein, so I decided that it's not really a good idea to stick around at Pago Pago, and ordered my carriers back to Pearl Harbor.

That was the day when Gary ordered Mini KB to move closer to the Samoan Islands, for some long range strikes against. He caught 2 AVDs at Savaii and 3 small AKs unloading supplies at Upolo. I'm still annoyed because of the AVDs - they were completely uncovered, but I wanted to base my Catalinas at Savaii instead of Pago Pago because it is two hexes further to the nortwest, and to reduce the number of planes at Pago Pago (level 2 AF now, but still overstacked. BTW, the P40s take ages to uncrate, even though I have more aviation support points than planes). To be fair, there wouldn't have been a CV battle if I had decided to stick around with my CVs (too far away, even with several reactions), but somehow I feel I have missed a chance...

After that Mini KB has disappeared, and everything has been quiet in SoPac/SWPac/CentPac. The second part of the convoy is due in two days, and will be covered by the LBA only - there should be enough Warhawks ready by then to deal with Mini KB, and KB... well, there's nothing I can do against KB anyway. The convoy will need only a day or two to unload the troops, so this seems to be an acceptable risk.

So far Operation Passenger is proceeding as planned. My carriers are already near Palmyra, and are in desperate need of some repairs due to wear and tear (between 5 and 11 sys for almost all ships).

---

The second major action happened near Java. Gary has a secure foothold at Malang (2 divisions), but his troops aren't moving...? No supplies? Even better, he apparently "forgot" to bring some aviation support units with him, because there are no planes at this level 4 AF! [8D]

The convoy that got mauled (see previous reports) has made it to Balikpapan by now, only few more hits were scored (too far away, too much fatigue, too many damaged planes by now). Another convoy took Bandjermasin and lost some AKs to my level bombers on Java, though.

Then a third - and rather large - convoy appeared between Palembang and Singkawang, heading towards southwest... and two subs were spotted at Merak, the city northwest of Batavia (empty, because all Inf units had moved to southern Java)... Gary is using his subs as "placeholders" on future invasion sites... Excellent thinking by Gary: the troops at Malang pin down my forces near Soerabaja, while a second invasion near Batavia stabs me in the back!! Well, good thinking, but bad execution: again, no heavy escorts, no preparatory air raids or naval bombardments, no escorting ASW TFs, no recon, no nothing... just loaded APs/AKs and some auxilliaries. Sadly, my subs and planes let me down during the next two days (very few hits, and the Army Dauntless from Batavia didn't even take off! [:@]), and the convoy started unloading. But then something else worked... [:)]









I had half the ABDA fleet "in reserve" near Christmas Island, on top of an oiler... Notice that there are 2 TFs at Malang, only 1 made contact (but twice!), Repulse didn't join the fight. There's a third TF still near Christmas Island with BB Royal Sovereign, 6 CLs and 4 DDs, but I didn't want to send these ships in because of their short range, and fuel isn't really abundant since I cannot refuel at Batavia or Soerabaja (Nells at Palembang, Kuching, Balikpapan and Kendari).

About the surface action: as always, the Japanese escorts fought bravely, and protected the valuable transports until sunk. So the night action was rather disappointing, but the day action.... [X(] ...a massacre.... burning Japanese hulks everywhere... most Allied ships out of Ammo for their main guns and TT banks.... too many targets....

The TFs were covered by LRCAP (Hurricanes, P40Es, Dutch fighters...) and not even a single Japanese plane flew against them - and no sub attack either! I got quite lucky here! All ships are retreating to the Indian Ocean - except Pensacola and Perth (enough fuel and ammo left) which will try to intercept the convoy again at Toboali, should the ships try to make it to to Palembang. They are set to do not retire, but I LRCAP'ed the base. And maybe, just maybe my planes and subs will get their act together for once... then the slaughter might continue...

5 Naval Guard units were already (partly) ashore and took Merak. They should be low on supplies though, and Dutch tanks are rushing to Batavia, so I think I can stop this thrust.

---

That's it for now, but more updates will follow soon. Promise! Rob, csatahajos, thanks for your interest! [:)]

[ny59giants]

Martin,
Where is he sending or keeping all his large naval units??
Has he reinforced KB and mini-KB with them?
Have you seen them in SC TF??

Just trying to understand why Gary continues to send invasion TF's with minimal escorts.[&:][&:][&:]

[timtom]

ORIGINAL: VSWG

About the surface action: as always, the Japanese escorts fought bravely, and protected the valuable transports until sunk. So the night action was rather disappointing, but the day action.... [X(] ...a massacre.... burning Japanese hulks everywhere... most Allied ships out of Ammo for their main guns and TT banks.... too many targets....

Massacre and massacre...he lost two AP's sunk and three heavily damaged.

Unfortunately the system encourages this kind of play. Strategically Gary has come out on top with an operation that would get any RL commander permanently assigned to latrine duty. Why bother with planning when you can get away with this kind of thing?

Tom Hunter put it better:

"Figuring out the naval combat exploit took a lot of work, but the combat Replay of Warspite plowing through the Japanese convoy was kind of amazing, even though she did a fraction of the damage she should have. 15" high explosive rounds at 4,000 yards in daylight should have simply obliterated Japanese merchant ships.

And as for the operational side off the simulation, in Fear and Loathing there were about 100 Japanese ships in a 60 mile hex with land on three sides and 15 Royal Navy Warships steaming in at fulls speed. Operationally the Japanese lost 6 ships. It is true that some of them may sink later, but later is after they unload the infantry divisions they are carrying onto Java. Operationally that is a huge failure, caused by the tactical failings of many parts of the games operating system."

I think this is a very important point. In the real war ships sink in minutes or hours, not days and if a mixed force of 2 Battleships, 6 cruisers and 7 destroyers had plowed into the Japanese invasion of Java that would have been the end of the invasion, right there, that day forever. Look at the damage the Houston did while engaging a vastly superior force of Japanese, now imagine Warspite, Revenge and freinds Vs. only a few patrol craft.

Of course no Japanese admiral would ever have come close to letting this happen. But WE can let this happen, because the ships don't actually sink for a variety of reasons. So we launch invasions that would never have been launched historically. We launch them because they will work no matter what. The naval combat system simply won't allow 100 merchant ships to be sunk in a day no matter how many surface warships you send. So the risk of operational failure goes way down, and people launch crazy operations because crazy suceeds in this game. Real admirals would have launched them too if they would succeed.

But everyone knows that if the forces that just clasaed off of Soerbaja had really met it would have been a massacre of Japanese shipping. Even though the Japanese got badly hurt the fact is that the 60,000 odd troops that are still on those ships will all unload tomorrow night. In fact one 20+ship convoy is still unloading supplies at Soerbaja right now, right over the beaches! The game did not allow the British to find it.

The Japanese were defeated off Soerbaja in Fear and Loathing when the launched an invasion they should have escorted more heavily. But the reality is they took a gamble that in this game was a really good bet, and if we had kept Warspite and Revenge in the same TF the Japs would have suffered a fraction of the casualties they did.

But in reality they should have lost tens of merchant ships, not 6. The risk of such a high loss rate would have put the brakes on doing really dumb things and forced them to play in a smarter more historical way.

So I don't buy Mogami's argument. If you look at the operational picture it is deeply flawed due to problems with the underlying tactical combat system. It is just more difficult to see those problems because the cause and effect relationships are very complex and take a long time to understand.

Now that I do understand them personally I can't accept them. I'm not arguing that the game was not a good effort, or that no one should play. I think I got fair entertainment value for my money. But I am somewhat disapointed, if the thing worked it would be a truly fascinating simulation

tm.asp?m=1080410&mpage=6&key=

[VSWG]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Martin,
Where is he sending or keeping all his large naval units??
Has he reinforced KB and mini-KB with them?
Have you seen them in SC TF??

Just trying to understand why Gary continues to send invasion TF's with minimal escorts.[&:][&:][&:]

Gary answered that himself in an email:

"As usual, when it really counted my Nell pilots decided to sleep in late. I would have sent in a cover force but with half the Allied 4Es stacked up at Batavia and Allied subs all over the place not much I can do at this point...."

I'll give you an overview over his surface combat assets in one of the following updates, with Bodhi's utility this is very easy to do (it tracks all major ships).