AWD-The Game that Brings Spain To Life?

[christian brown]

I have seen Spain activate in the last 5 of 6 games I've played and there were almost zero extenuating circumstances: long delay in DoWing USA, taking Gibraltar by sea, etc. This is what has prompted this post, previously I have noticed the same thing roughly 50% of the time over the course of perhaps 60 games. It has become so routine, it can almost be counted upon. Since the effect on a MED/ME strategy by the Axis can be SO VERY important, I think we have a real balance issue here. I have commented upon this in other places but I think it is time to see what the players out there have seen: I do not wish to blow the whistle without cause and if you all are not seeing a disproportionately high number of Spanish Activations, well then, perhaps this is simply the result of chance in my games. Please post here with your observations regarding this phenomena, I think in the interest of statistical reliability it is best if only those that have 10 or more games under their belt post their observations, though, for example, if you have played 5 games and it either: happened every time/did NOT happen at all, then that would tend to show something. I thank you all in advance for your participation.

Final note: I do not think it was the developers intent to have an active Spain in half of all games. If that is in fact the case, please delete this thread.

*edit* word change

[Titanwarrior89]

Ive played a few games now and Spain activated once on its on and once when I invaded Spain its self. My other few games it did not activate.


I myself like th ideal of Spain and Turkey entering the war if possible.[:D]

[christian brown]

Original: Titanwarrior89

 I myself like th ideal of Spain and Turkey entering the war if possible.

As do I, sir.  But this ought to be something exceptional, to be hoped for (if you are Axis obviously!), not something of a routine nature.  On the other hand, we must judge whether this event has any balance to it......does, for example, the possible activation of an (almost always already occuppied) Greece in any way measure in importance to this?  I look at things like this from the perspective of someone interested in a nice, hard, relatively balanced fight.  The bottom line is that events such as these bring richness and unpredictablity to the game as well as the "what if" factor, which I wholly enjoy, the question lies in the frequency of such events......and their repercussions on balance as a whole.  If, for example, this occurred in 10% of all games, that would be fine by me, but as it is; it appears to be closer to 50%, which I feel is highly distorted.  This is why I wish to hear from others regarding their experiences.....

[JagdFlanker]

well, i don't own the game yet (but very soon - can't wait!), but having played a fair amount strategic type games i generally find in the best interest of game balance that it should be less of a random thing and more of an 'objective' thing - if germany achieves certain objectives then there is a chance of spain every turn after that of coming in. it should be a reward for a job well done, not a lottery ticket.

not only that, but perhaps it should cost germany something to get spain to ally with them - germany should have to butter spain up after they acheive these objectives by supplying spain with something in exchange for entering the war - supplies, industry points, or something else of value that germany can't get back later. and if they LOSE the objectives before they sufficiently butter them up they can no longer butter them up. if done properly it should actually hurt germany for a few turns first before spain is a benefit! not saying it would be wholly historical, but in a game a hard decision to make is a better solution than winning the lottery!

or mabe instaed of costing germany to align spain towards germany, perhaps if germany gets below a certain watermark, then it's only fair that spain should go neutral again and intern all units in it's territory (or if it's empty it should be brought up to a certain level to prevent gamey-ness). franco was pretty good at playing the germans aginst the allies when it came to their valuable wolfram/tungston mining and had no problem swaying wherever the winds happened to be blowing at the time. an interesting article on the topic:
http://www.spiritone.com/~gdy52150/goldp6.html
just above page 2 - the first page is mostly on portugal (and also pretty interesting)

the bottom line is that from 1940 - 1942 germany looked/was unstoppable and impossible to beat, and in spite of that even though spain OWED germany big time for their help in the spanish civil war they STILL didn't enter the war on germany's side! hitler was a moron (thank god!) and (for simplicity's sake) his stupidity lost the war in the end - since whoever plays germany plays you-know-who and a doorknob could do a better job than hitler did they should be able to have the opportunity to do the right things to gain spain and ultimatly win the war! not 'win the lottery' and tip the game because of blind luck!

anyhow that was just some ideas for fun - i likes causing trouble [;)]

[GKar]

I wonder if there might be something wrong with the event, or perhaps it's all a case of bad luck.

As a reminder, here are the event conditions:
- Spain must be neutral
- Western France must be German-controlled
- the US must be frozen
- 3% chance

In games roughly following the historical timeline, France is conquered in Spring '40 and the US are attacked in Winter '42. This adds up to a chance of 19% (= 1 - 0.97^7) for Spain to join the Axis given more or less historical gameplay - sounds about right. Even delaying the attack on the US for a year doesn't change that much, the chance should be 28% (= 1 - 0.97^11) then.

In my limited experience, Spain joined the Axis in two out of three times (each time before 1942).

I think that as long as this political event is really working as described in the manual (it's checked once only per whole game turn, right?) it is fine as it is. Personally I think there should be an extra chance of Spain joining the Axis when Gibraltar is conquered, maybe 33% or 50%.

(Actually the event chance is even a bit lower because only one event can happen per turn.)

[tcart]

It's only happened to me once in five games (ironically enough, against Christian) but I  agree that it can unbalance the game somewhat. Unlike the other political events, Spain's decision to join the Axis can significantly alter the course of the war.
 
I have a suggestion that would ameliorate this somewhat, if it's possible to implement it via modding or a patch. Historically, Franco was willing to consider joining the Axis, but his pricetag in terms of military equipment and economic concessions was too high for Hitler. (Possibly this was payback for the rather onerous payment terms the Germans charged for critical assistance during the Spanish Civil War, a reflection of the devastation wrought by the SCW, or both, but that's neither here nor there.)
 
It strikes me that a more interesting strategic option in AWD would be for Spain to offer to join the Axis, but only if Germany agrees to pay a relatively high price in supplies--say about 50 or so. This would be historically accurate, would offset the obvious advantages that come with Spanish participation, and would pose an interesting strategic choice for the Germans, especially if they're gearing up for Barbarossa or entangled in the Med (or both) and would have to trade off a turn on the offensive.
 
As you're charged 10 supplies (I believe) for invading a neutral country, the underlying mechanism for deducting supply ought to be there. I'll leave it to smarter people than me to figure out what happens if Germany doesn't have the 50 on hand.
 
Regards,
Tim

[WanderingHead]

ORIGINAL: tica
It's only happened to me once in five games (ironically enough, against Christian) but I  agree that it can unbalance the game somewhat. Unlike the other political events, Spain's decision to join the Axis can significantly alter the course of the war.

I think it is more than a little unbalancing. The problem is that the British suffer even more if they are successful in the Mediterranean. If they make a commitment to try to defend the Med, then this happens, they can get royally shafted.

Coupling it to some kind of Axis successes in the Med could make sense, but then I think (as I believe anyway) that the starting Italian transport fleets should be reduced from 4 to either 2 or 3.

[christian brown]

For clarity, there is a 5 (darn it, I can't open the manual to check this, it might be only 3) point US WR bump if Germany accepts Spain into the Axis, so this hardly comes w/o cost, but quite frankly, I like the supply payment rule......50 is probably too high, but 25....now we might be talking. It would be especially interesting if this supply was not drawn until the end of the turn (imagine the German biting his nails and weighing whether to go for the kill in the Med/or holding off an extra turn in lieu of luring Spain because of supply costs! Putting this choice at the end would be better drama, IMO) I appreciate the feedback and look forward to more, particularly if you can support/ruleout my hypothesis about the odds of a Spanish activation. Personally, (and I have played this game a few times) my experience has been that this event triggers a lot more often than the activation chance combined with prerequisites would indicate. Far More.

*edit* fact check and spelling: Sapin???

[christian brown]

Another day, another Spanish activation.....my opponent says this only happens in games vs. me, perhaps my friendship with Rafael (Spanish guy) brings me some undesirable voodoo......

[christian brown]

After running an AI vs AI test sample of 25 games, Spain only activated 12% of the time, I believe I have simply had  some very lucky/unlucky event checks!  Thanks for your responses, I'm going to have to chalk this up to unusual circumstances for now. 

[Uncle_Joe]

Keep in mind that in your AI to AI tests, the Axis almost always attack the USSR/USA 'on time'. This means less chances of Spanish Activation than in some Human vs Human games where the US is not involved quite as early. This is further magnified because the later it goes, the less 'higher order' events are still left to potentially fire, giving more checks on the Spanish event than the few added turns would indicate.
 
 

[Lebatron]

From my thread "The Spanish coup" - 11/5/2006. Since it's located in the private dev forum I will just copy and
paste the whole thing here. My intention in doing so is to launch a second attempt to try and get Spain's coup event
adjusted. My original suggestion is below.

I've been seeing to many games where this happens. At first I was going to suggest to reduce the %3 to %2 to curb
it. But I just had a better idea. Looking over the requirements gave me an idea.
Here are the current rules to trigger the coup:
1. Spain must be neutral.
2. Western France must be German controlled.
3. The US must be frozen.

I propose adding a new requirement to trigger this check.
*4. Malta or Gibraltar must be German controlled.

The Sweden Axis coup requires that Norway be German controlled to trigger that one. So it places greater importance
to take Norway. We all know the need to create incentives just to get Germany to take Norway. This was just one more
of them. In relation, Malta has been rather irrelevant and we have not been able to make it worthwhile for the WA's
to hold it. At least with this small change there would now be some incentive to do so, because it will prevent the
Spanish coup. In Gibraltar's case, my mod handled this by unfreezing Axis Spain once Germany succeeded in taking
Gibraltar. But in this game, doing that does not cause this. If it's not to hard to add, it would be nice if losing
Gibraltar had a greater impact than losing Malta. Say increasing the check to %5 per turn if Germany occupies
Gibraltar.

In summary if its possible to place different weights on Malta and Gibraltar, I would leave the coup chance at 3% if
Germany controls Malta, and 5%(maybe 6) if Germany controls Gibraltar.

Christain Brown responded:
Excellent idea for multiple reasons as stated above:
Makes it less easy for Spain to flip
Encourages the taking/holding of Malta.
_____________________________
Very respectfully,
Christian

----

WanderingHead responded:
It may be too easy now, but I think this makes it too hard for Spain to flip.
Boy though, I wish these things were mod-able. It is quite clear that the random events are things that people could
like to be able to adjust.   

----

WanderingHead responded:
quote: ORIGINAL: Lebatron
I propose adding a new requirement to trigger this check.
*4. Malta or Gibraltar must be German controlled.

Maybe: Gibraltar, Cairo, or England, and increase the odds to 4% or 5%.
In conjunction with reducing the Italian starting transports from 4 to 2 or 3. It gives a good motivation to go for
Cairo, and as a geo-political/strategic reason I much prefer it over the SPs.
Again, this is the kind of thing I would definitely play with in mods.  

----

WanderingHead responded:
I hate to spam this thread, but I forgot that I think having ANY firm requirement on the Spanish coup is
undesirable. It is a nice bit of variation to allow for it in an unpredictable way.
Hence, I think I would propose two events.
Event #1, 1%
1. Spain must be neutral.
2. Western France must be German controlled.
3. The US must be frozen.
Event #2, 4%
1. Spain must be neutral.
2. Western France must be German controlled.
3. The US must be frozen.
4. Gibraltar, Cairo, or England is German controlled.
Perhaps also increase the USA WR bump from 3 to 4.
 

I never did respond at the time to these comments, because I was burnt out and was not interested in a protracted debate. I kind of figured once the idea was out there, others would hash it out. Well I was disappointed that the idea died, because now that AWD is out I'm sure many feel the Spanish coup is kind of flaky in its implementation. Since Spain is back into the spotlight due to the bug, I wanted to suggest that maybe this would be a good time to do Spain 'right' and not just rush out a patch fix that undoes the test code Gary inadvertently forgot to reset.

In response to WH, multiple weight levels as I ended my original idea with are probably out of the question due to extra code work. Your suggestion in event #1 is ok but since its so small a chance its probably not worth the code. Also it rewards(though small) the Axis for no success in the Med whatsoever. I personally think that something important should be captured in order for the Spanish coup to happen. Hence places like Malta, Cairo and Gibraltar. I originally left Cairo out in rule item #4 because it has its own payoffs, but I'm not against adding it in too. Since its unlikely we can all agree on a complicated Spain coup event, and you know what happens when we are spit. That's right, nothing. And something that many consider I'll conceived will be left as is. The Spanish coup event need not be left as is because the code for adding a restriction is already in place. As I pointed out, Norway is needed for the Sweden coup event to trigger. To improve the Spanish event it would take nothing more than a little cut and paste of some code from another event and the situation would be greatly improved. That should not be to hard to convince Joel and Gary to make the change since the code is already in place. Asking for more though will never happen. So we need some solidarity here. What I proposed before would be easy to implement. If others can say yes I can see its an improvement over the current rule then support the change. Don't ball it up with "But I think this idea would be better" because then nothing will happen because we are all pulling in different directions. I warned of this before and true to my prediction a great rule change(which I won't mention) was dropped because of minor differences, and we ended up with what we all agreed was a poor mechanic. Following this logic, I earlier proposed my simple fix for Spain. Its rather elementary IMO, since Sweden and Finland both have conquest requirements attached to their events. Why not Spain?

The simplest rule fix would be to add just one conquest requirement, but if adding two or more was not anymore difficult, then a rule combining more than one would work fine. That could be any one of Malta, Cairo, or Gibraltar to keep the requirements in the Mediterranean sphere. London or Moscow could be triggers too, but under this system they can be safely left out IMO.

[Forwarn45]

I like the idea of adding a Gibraltar, Malta, or Cairo requirement - as it may put just a little more focus on Malta. I also like the suggestion of requiring the Germans to pay some supplies to activate Spain - I'd set this at 10-25 - a minor cost increase. Finally, I'd like to see US war readiness NOT increase if the Germans decline Spain.

[Forwarn45]

By the way - although I would like to see a few changes as noted - my personal preference would be to get a quick patch out on just the bug. I don't mind waiting until the second, main patch for the Spanish adjustment - to make sure any new requirements are tested and don't lead to unintended consequences.

[Lebatron]

My original addon:
*4. Malta or Gibraltar must be German controlled.

optionally:
4. Cairo must be German controlled. This one would be the simplest and easiest to remember. It also simply gets the job done.
 
or optionally:
4. Both Cairo and Malta must be German controlled. I like this one even better, as it requires a semi serious Med campaign to get a chance at unlocking Spain.

[christian brown]

My vote is with 4.:
"Both Cairo and Malta must be German controlled. I like this one even better, as it requires a semi serious Med campaign to get a chance at unlocking Spain."

[wargameplayer]

First. I am seeing a lot more Spanish entries into the war with the new patch. I am playing the new scenario (which i like) but it does seem to be a bit high. (EDIT- I just read this is a bug in the new version). DOH

As far as changes to the event, I think that this is supposed to be a simulation of WWII. So-- saying that Spain would not have entered if malta or gibraltor or cairo is not taken does not make sense. I think maybe making say 1-2% or something like that as a base, then raising it as these are taken.

A lot of the event scripts are not well known. I'd love to see the codes for em.

I don't always like a spanish entry tbh. Especially if the uk has not committed all its fleet to the med like the current game im playing. It gives me the extra war entry which frankly i find a lot less helpful if the english have not trapped navy.

I agree on Malta tho. Rarely does it have much if any significance in any game i play.

[wargameplayer]

First. I am seeing a lot more Spanish entries into the war with the new patch. I am playing the new scenario (which i like) but it does seem to be a bit high. (EDIT- I just read this is a bug in the new version). DOH

As far as changes to the event, I think that this is supposed to be a simulation of WWII. So-- saying that Spain would not have entered if malta or gibraltor or cairo is not taken does not make sense. I think maybe making say 1-2% or something like that as a base, then raising it based on meaningful progress in the war. the better the germans closer franco edged to them. When they started to do poorly, he declared his neutrality (i.e. opporunist).

A lot of the event scripts are not well known. I'd love to see the codes for em. Finland for example turns on the conquest of lengingrad or murmansk it seems. Maybe I missed the detail on that in the manual.

I don't always like a spanish entry tbh. Especially if the uk has not committed all its fleet to the med like the current game im playing. It gives me the extra war entry which frankly i find a lot less helpful if the english have not trapped navy. I'd love to have the option to keep them as non axis in return for saving the War readiness.

I agree on Malta tho. Rarely does it have much if any significance in any game i play. gives me the extra war entry which frankly i find a lot less helpful if the english have not trapped navy.

[Lebatron]

ORIGINAL: Forwarn45

I like the idea of adding a Gibraltar, Malta, or Cairo requirement - as it may put just a little more focus on Malta. I also like the suggestion of requiring the Germans to pay some supplies to activate Spain - I'd set this at 10-25 - a minor cost increase. Finally, I'd like to see US war readiness NOT increase if the Germans decline Spain.

Gifting Spain supplies as an additional requirement would take more code work. Probably not going to happen as I already explained. 2by3 has moved on to their next project. Also, the idea doesn't fit with the rules in place now. Why add more? The only thing the Spanish coup needs is a conquest requirement like Sweden and Finland already have.

[Lebatron]

ORIGINAL: Forwarn45

By the way - although I would like to see a few changes as noted - my personal preference would be to get a quick patch out on just the bug. I don't mind waiting until the second, main patch for the Spanish adjustment - to make sure any new requirements are tested and don't lead to unintended consequences.

I'd much rather see Gary and Keith spend 30 minutes, probably less, to apply a conquest requirement that is already in the code and working for other neutrals, than to just release a quick patch for the new Spanish bug. My suggestion would be so easy to turn on for Spain that you could call my solution a quick fix too. So why not just do it right the first time, rather than say put it into the second main patch. What if there never is a second patch? Then what?