Speedy vs Fabertong: Death to the Penguin!

[Speedysteve]

Hi all,

Hi guys - I agree I was pleasantly surprised by the result. I'll take it though[;)]

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Today was a day of mixed feelings.

Firstly at Singkawang. I don't understand it:

Ground combat at Singkawang

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 40311 troops, 403 guns, 184 vehicles, Assault Value = 968

Defending force 14732 troops, 81 guns, 138 vehicles, Assault Value = 399

Allied max assault: 860 - adjusted assault: 287

Japanese max defense: 320 - adjusted defense: 761

Allied assault odds: 0 to 1 (fort level 3)


Japanese ground losses:
322 casualties reported
Guns lost 6
Vehicles lost 1

Allied ground losses:
1145 casualties reported
Guns lost 25
Vehicles lost 7

I'm fully in supply. Morale is in the 60's Fatigue in 30-50 range. The Japanese CAN'T be any better off.

Whatever, I am p*ssed at this. I am marching a further RCT and ARM Bn from Pontianak.

5th Australian Division, 13th Australian Bde and SW Pacific HQ will embark at Darwin for the region soon.

I will take the bloody place.

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Now the good stuff.

Saipan's B29's bombed Kyoto. Interestingly when targetting MULTIPLE factories in one raid the CR lists these as HITS. Look below:

Day Air attack on Kyoto , at 63,41

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zeke x 15

Allied aircraft
B-29 Superfortress x 175

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zeke: 7 destroyed, 1 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
B-29 Superfortress: 3 destroyed, 21 damaged

hits 34

In total I lost 14 x B29 to his 7 x Zeke. I will rest for a couple of days before attacking somewhere else. The attached screenshot shows the effects of the bombing.

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The other good news was in the submarine war:

SS Robalo sank AK Yodogawa Maru with 4 torpedoes over 2 attacks 120 miles SE of Shanghai.

SS Escolar sank AK Shinsoku Maru with 5 shells and a torpedo 120 miles NE of Iwo Jima.

SS Tang missed AK Kanto Maru 120 miles ENE of Taytay. In return she received 1 x DC near miss and 1 x DC hit - 8/24/0.

SS Spadefish sank TK Koryu Maru with 4 torpedoes over 2 attacks 60 miles east of Taytay.

Air sightings = 6
Air attacks = 0

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An LCI, LSD and a TK arrive in theatre tomorrow.

[Andy Mac]

USN Fletcher class DD's are a handfull for almost all Jap CA's, CL's and DD's they are extremely well armed fast and have armour.

[Speedysteve]

Hi Andy,
 
I agree they are a damn fine destroyer.
 
I'm due to startt receiving Somner class over the next month. What are they like?

[Andy Mac]

[:D][:D][:D] Even better

[Speedysteve]

[:D]In what sense? AA? Anti-ship? ASW?[:)]

[Andy Mac]

Better AA 360 v 290
Better Surface 1 extra 5" gun, 13 Dur v 12
Slightly Less Armour
 

[Capt. Harlock]

ORIGINAL: Andy Mac

Better AA 360 v 290
Better Surface 1 extra 5" gun, 13 Dur v 12
Slightly Less Armour

IIRC they weren't as fast, though.

[Speedysteve]

Hi all,

More of the same in Burma and SRA with heavy air attacks on IJA positions NE of Moulmein, at Balikpapan and Singkawang.

2 x AG are sunk by LBA 120 miles west of Singkawang.

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An interesting day in the submarine war.

SS Barbero was hunted by 4 x PC 240 miles NE of Camranh Bay. A Helen also hit her with a bomb during the day - 59/61/0. Back to Darwin.

SS Robalo missed DD Matsu and in return recieved 1 x DC near miss 120 miles SE of Shanghai - 12/0/0.

SS Jack blew up AK Kokuyo Maru with 3 x shells and 3 torpedoes 60 miles east of Tori Shima.

SS Tinosa turned the tables and heavily damaged DD Mikazuki with a torpedo 60 miles SE of Camranh Bay.

Air sightings = 16
Air attacks = 3
Air hits = 1

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A DE and an AK arrive in theatre tomorrow.

[Speedysteve]

Hi all,

A combined air action was successful today.

Rangoon's B29's flew to disrupt Miri's oil production by 76%.

Koepang's B29's damaged Brunei's oil production by 50%.

Hapopily no enemy fighters were encountered over either targets. 1 x B29 failed to return due to engine failure.

Koepang's B29's will return to Brunei again tomorrow.

2 x AG were sunk by LBA near Singkawang.

------------------

Other than that failrely quite guys as I await the final reinforcements in India, await men from Australia at Singkawang, await Iwo Jima invasion forces ot be picked up at San Francisco.

No submarine attacks today.

---------------------

2 x CVE , an DE and an AK arrive in theatre tomorrow.

[Speedysteve]

Hi all,

Brunei was subjected to further B29 attacks which reduiced oil production to 20% output. Will try a further final follow up raid tomorrow.

Faber snuck in CL Sendai + 3 x DD to intercept my 2 x DE sinking barges off Singkawang. They performed well in heavily damaging both my ships for no hits in return. Amazingly both of mine should survive. For example DE Harold C. Thomas - 98/43/17. They are now 60 miles away from Pontianak.

2 x AG were sunk by LBA from Pontianak during the day.

------------------

Saipan's B29's have been ordered to attack Hamamatsu's Nakajima Engine plants during the day tomorrow.

Iwo Jima transports should reach San Francisco over the next 2 days.

------------------

SS Escolar damaged AP Fusemi Maru with a torpedo and then missed AP Chicago Maru with her last 4 torpedoes 120 miles SW of Tori Shima.

SS Lancetfish damaged the troop laden AP Koan Maru with a torpedo 60 miles SE of Camranh Bay.

Air sigthings = 17
Air attacks = 4
Air hits = 1 - SS Becuna by a Sally 240- miles NE of Camranh Bay - 26/34/0.

------------------

As it's fairly quiet it's time for a region review.

Burma:

As you can see from the screenshot below we're at stalmate NE of Moulmein:

Ground combat at 30,34

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 343111 troops, 1971 guns, 981 vehicles, Assault Value = 8119

Defending force 358937 troops, 1828 guns, 717 vehicles, Assault Value = 7396


Japanese ground losses:
394 casualties reported
Guns lost 7
Vehicles lost 1

My force still has about another 2000 AV to recover but not enough to defeat him face to face.

As such the plan is to await the last reinforcements at KArachi and then land somewhere else with what I have.

In total I will have probably another 2000AV - 1000 from Karachi and 1000 from Rangoon. I also have 1000 at Moulmein.

I'm not sure when to go if i'm honest. I'm thinking of one of 2 things:

1. Landing at Victoria Point with 2000AV and then marching the Moulemin 1000AV to Tavoy to keep him in place there. At the same time land from Borneo at Mersing/Kuantan with 1000AV.

2. Landing at Victoria Point/Georgetown and with a landing from Borneo at Saigon/Kompong Trach.

What do you guys think? This landing will take 3 months ish before all troops are available.

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4 x AK, an TK, APD, DD, DE, AP and a CVE arrive in theatre tomorrow.

[Speedysteve]

Hi all,

Do any of you have any thoughts on the Burma area?

--------------------

Brunei's oil production is now down to 15% operational. As such that leaves most oil sites in SRA either under my yoke or down to a low level of output. Good.

---------------------

Saipan's B29's attacked Hamamatsu durign the day encountering 45 x Jack on CAP. They shot down 15 x B29 for the loss of 8 x Jack. The good news is that 70 of the 144 production of Nakajima engines was damaged (costing Faber 70,000 supply to repair these).

All transports bound for Iwo Jima are at San Francisco and are taking on board fuel tomorrow before embarking troops the following day.

---------------------

SS Batfish was sunk by 4 x PC 240 miles NW of Iwo Jima with 3 x DC hit, 5 x DC near miss.

SS Finback evaded 2 x PC 120 miles SE of Davao.

Air sightings = 8
Air attacks = 1

----------------------

An Essex class CV, an SS and a DD arrive in theatre tomorrow.

[Alfred]

Speedy,
 
I am not comfortable with the options you have listed in your post #1430.  Before giving my reasons I will outline certain assumptions/understandings I have.  Of course these may be quite incorrect and therefore invalidate my arguments.
 
 
My Assumptions/Understandings
 
1.  The landings in the Saigon and east Malaya zones are intended to assist/develop your Victoria Point offensive.
 
2.  My initial understanding was that the Saigon/east Malaya units, coming from Borneo, would be Australian/American units either already in Borneo or transiting from Darwin.  However I may have misread you and point 3 applies instead.
 
3.  The Saigon/east Malaya units are British units, amounting to about 1000 AV, which will be transported west (IRL south) of Sumatra and Java to Borneo.
 
4.  You feel you can not gainfully employ spare British units in Burma and therefore, like Churchill and Lloyd George in WWI, seek gainful employment away from the "Western Front".  In other words these options are not presented as a means to directly assist the current Burma and Borneo operations.
 
5.  The Victoria Point garrison will not simply stay put but eventually will move somewhere.  Although not specified where, I suspect logically it will move to reinforce the action taken either in east Malaya or the Saigon area.
 
6.  Based on the disclosed AV of Allied troops to be deployed, Japanese opposition is expected to be light.
 
 
Speedy's Offered Options
 
1.  Amphibious capture of Victoria Point, pin Jap at Tavoy with Moulmein units, and invade east Malaya (suggested sites are Mersing or Kuantun).
 
2.  Amphibious capture of Victoria Point or Georgetown, and invade Indochina (suggested sites are Saigon or Kompong Trach).
 
 
Perceived Pros and Cons of Speedy's Outlined Options
 
The obvious benefits are that if successfully carried out and consolidated, either option will gain VP more rapidly than a successful breach of the Burma front.  Unlike Option 2, Option 1 at least limits operations to roughly one area (viz Malaya) and the separate assaults may have a complementary multiplier effect on each other.  Option 2 may limit the overland transportation of resources, oil, supplies etc between south and north Asia.
 
IMHO, the cons far outweigh the pros.  Consider these observations.
 
An amphibious landing at Victoria Point is OK because, according to your screenshot, that location is ungarrisoned and will be linked up with the Burma front when you move from Moulmein to Tavoy, but the other amphibious operations keep reminding me of Gallipoli.  They seem to be a dissipation of effort with dubious tactical, let alone strategic, value.  In short, without additional complementary operations, the east Malaya/Saigon landings are dead ends which will constitute a serious drain on your logistics.
 
If you are intending to use only British forces (see assumption #3 above), to succeed the east Malay/Saigon area operations require minimal Japanese resistance, both in the local garrison and in the available Japanese land and air units which are in the vicinity and can be used to conterattack the beachhead and naval resupply.  If on the other hand you intend to use other allied units (see assumption 2 above) then you may have more than 1000 AV available but for reasons which I outline below, these Allied troops would be better employed elsewhere.
 
IIRC, the situation on Borneo was that you had encountered stronger resistance, particularly at Balikpapan, than expected.  To capture all of Borneo, and this includes Tarakan, Kuching, Miri, Brunei and particularly Jesselton, you may well need, without receiving substantial reinforcements, more than 3 months.  Until you control all of Borneo, crossing the wide South China sea with the ever present threat of kamikazis is fraught with danger.  Such a crossing is not comparable to the sea thrust to Banjarmasin because then there were no kamikazis available and there were no enemy air bases on your flanks (Java having been neutralised).  The numerous air bases in Malaya, Indochina, Hainan and the remaining Borneo bases are significant threats.
 
The nearest potential land bases to support a Saigon landing are Kuching (10 hexes distant) and Miri and Brunei (both 11 hexes distant).  None of these bases is yet under Allied control.  At 10 and 11 hexes only P-38J and, from September 1944, P-51D will be able to provide LRCAP but this would be only at extended range.  Saigon itself has four major airbases within extremely close range:
 
Bien Hoa (1 hex distant) max size 8
Phnom Penh (2 hex distant) max size 7
Camranh Bay (3 hex distant) max size 9
Kompong Trach (3 hex distant) max size 5
 
Will your Lightnings (and eventually Mustangs) fatigue and morale be able to provide continuous LRCAP?
 
The situation regarding Mersing is not quite as bad in as much as both Kuching and Singakwang (the latter being in Allied hands) are only 8 hexes distant.  LRCAP at normal range is therefore possible for Mersing, but not for Kuantan.  Mersing also has 4 airbases in close proximity:
 
Singapore (1 hex distant)
Johore Bahru (1 hex distant)
Malacca (2 hex distant)
Kuantan (2 hex distant)
 
Admittedly you could use naval airpower to assist but wouldn't USN CV be occupied with Iwo Jima and follow on actions.  That would leave CVE.  Remembering what happened recently in the Moluccas, do you seriously think the South China sea would be a safe working environment for CVEs?
 
I am not certain but I think that a Saigon invasion activates four new enemy divisions in Indochina.
 
 
Maximising Speedy's Outlined Options
 
Of the two options, I think option 1 is by far the best although I would prefer that you cut out the east Malaya landing and concentrated all the units at Victoria Point.  Nevertheless if you implement it as outlined, I would add the following:
 
A.  From Victoria Point move to Krung Thep and if you have sufficient force invest Bangkok.  This will cut off supply to Rahaeng which is the entire supply terminal for the Burma front.
 
B.  Before launching the east Malaya operation, capture Sinkep Island.  This island is only 4 hexes from Mersing and will allow you to base your short legged fighters to provide cap and help to neutralise the Singapore, Johore Bahru et al airbases.
 
 
Alternative Plans
 
Assuming that we are dealing only with British units and that you are looking to open up a new front, I would consider Sabang.  The screen shot shows no garrison but there must be some present as there are aircraft.  Your earmarked forces should suffice for its early capture, well within 3 months.  The infrastructure on Sumatra will not allow for any significant Japanese counterattack on Sabang.  From Sabang you can leisurely stroll overland to capture, in order, Kuala, Medan and Bankha.  Sabang is a max size 6 airbase and only 9 hexes from Singapore and less from Johore Bahru, Kuala Lumpur, therefore if your Liberator VI are bored with ground attacks in Burma, they can switch to new targets.  You own the Andaman Sea therefore your logisitics to Sabang are invulnerable.
 
With Sabang under your control, you can consider limited amphibious actions against Padang and Benkolen.  These two locations will allow short range British aircraft to operate against Palembang and Batavia.
 
 
Even if you completely dismiss everything I hope at least it aids you in reaching a decision.
 
Alfred

[Nemo121]

Aye either go for Sabang or go deeper down the Malaysian peninsula establishing a blocking force at Songkia and then clearing the southern portion of the peninsula. Sabang will be unexpected and the clearance of Malaysia is likely to benefit from being both unexpected and facing limited enemy strength.

If you head for Victoria etc you will be landing in places he has been expecting you to land and closer to his reserves. It will make it easier for him to contain your landing than if you landed somewhere unexpected.

[Speedysteve]

Hi all,

Hi Alfred/Nemo - thanks guys. Really interesting and thought provoking stuff. I will think further on this. To aid the discussion after the next turn I will accumulate all of the forces that I deem available for this thrust from Burma and from the SRA. We can then talk and see further exactly what I have and what I am thinking[:)]

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More of fhe same with stalemate in Burma with daily massive bombing by Allied LBA on Japanese positions NE of Moulmein and at Rahaeng.

--------------------

Faber has stopped sending barges to Singkawang for now and as such the daily routine down here is Allied LBA attacks on Bali, Macassar, Kendari, Balikpapan, Singkawang, Sorong and Amboina.

Interestingly I feel a Japanese CV force is moving SE of PI. Over the past 2 days a sub spotted a possible combat TF and then several subs have reported Jake's patrolling the seas..........

I have ordered allied forces to attack again at Singkawang to see if they can progress at all before committing reinforcements.

I have attached a screenshot of the current situation in SRA.

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CV Bennington and Hancock have reached PH and have been joined by 2 cruisers and a further 8 x Fletcher DD before moving onto the SRA.

The recently arrived CV Randolph will move to PH to participate in the Iwo Jima invasion.

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SS Drum heavily damaged the troop laden AP Jinsan Maru with 2 torpedoes 180 miles south of Hainan.

Air sightings = 14
Air attacks = 2

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An LCI(G), LSM, DE, AP and an APD arrive in theatre tomorrow.

[Speedysteve]

Hi all,

Hi Alfred/Nemo - i've collated the available forces for within 2 months time (when I plan to launch the operation in SRA).

Firstly, I just wanted to clarify my thinkign on this which may or may not affect your views. The reason why I say go for Malaya or Indo-China is quite simply since I don't want or need to invade Sumatra. Sumatra gains me few VP's and will only bog forces down in low-medium held bases further shortening the Japanese SLOC. If I go for Malaya or Indo-China I have the chance of going for serious bases that in time allow concentration and strategic benefits to me - Singapore and Saigon/China.

I just feel if I go for Sumatra it does nothing since he will not react and I gain what 200 VP's for another 4-6 months delay and to what strategic goal? Sumatra is already cut off due to Pontianak (and soon to be Singkawang).

Please let me know your thoughts on this.

I will have the following forces available within 2 months time:

From SEAC:

81st W. African Division
475th USA Rct
20th Indian Division
29th UK Bde
16th Chindit Bde
82nd W. African Division
19th Indian Division
4 x USA Prov. Tk Bn

= 2050 AV

There is a further 900AV in Moulmein free for deployment to Tavoy etc.

From SRA:

At Singkawang (I plan to use these forces to take Kuching first so unsure if will be available):

31st USA Division
93rd Division
503rd USA Para Rgt
637th USA TD Bn

= 940AV

Pontianak: 150AV

Darwin:

5th Australian Division
188th USA Glider Rgt
3rd Australian Division
13th Australian Bde
4th Australian Division
2nd Australian Cav. Division
2nd Australian Division
11th Australian Division
3 x ARM Bn's

= 2250 AV

2/3 of the Australian units need PP's to change command first.

I still feel a 2 pronged invasion of Malaya is a good choice. 1 NW by SEAC and the other east by SRA.

Regarding CV cover. I don't feel this is a problem. Within 2 months I will have 3 x British CV and 2 x Essex class CV. The Essex class are brand new and as such are not reducing the current Pacific CV stock (that has been increased with the arrival of a further Essex class CV). Botjh the SEAC and SRA invasions will have BB support.

What do you guys think?

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Success was made today at Singkawang! At last American and Australian forces pushed the Japanese back and overcame some of the defences:

Ground combat at Singkawang

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 39444 troops, 352 guns, 181 vehicles, Assault Value = 916

Defending force 13633 troops, 66 guns, 135 vehicles, Assault Value = 368

Allied max assault: 824 - adjusted assault: 611

Japanese max defense: 278 - adjusted defense: 145

Allied assault odds: 4 to 1 (fort level 3)

Allied Assault reduces fortifications to 2


Japanese ground losses:
922 casualties reported
Guns lost 6
Vehicles lost 17

Allied ground losses:
597 casualties reported
Guns lost 20
Vehicles lost 6

Excellent. Hopefully we can take the place soon and go for Kuching.

Koepang's B29's are ordered to bomb Tarakan's resources tomorrow.

Pontianak's LBA heavily hit a small Japanese convoy east of Palembang. Throughout the day they heavily damaged 4 x AK and 1 x MSW for the loss of a TBM.

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Saipan's B29's are ordered to bomb Maruyama's Mutsibishi Engine factories tomorrow.

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SS Tang was attacked by 3 x PC, 1 x DD 120 miles ENE of Taytay. 5 x DC near miss - 29/4/0.

SS Sea Fox sank TK Ichiyo Maru with 2 torpedoes 60 miles NE of Taytay.

SS Croaker missed AP Tatuha Maru with 6 torpedoes 240 miles SW of Camranh Bay.

Air sightings = 14
Air attacks = 0

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An LCI, LSM, LST and an AP arrive in theatre tomorrow.

[Alfred]

Speedy,
 
SEAC Operqations
 
If there are sufficient penguins in Sumatra (particularly at Sabang) to cause you a 3-4 month delay then your concerns there are quite valid.  Admittedly two hundred VP for you does not appear to be much, but you need to remember that the penguin would lose much more than 200 VP from losing the same bases which you gain (caveat need to actually check the VP Jap/Allied multipliers here).
 
My suggestion regarding Sabang and the follow up amphibious operations stems from 3 factors:
 
1.  Minimal penguin garrisons/resistance to be overcome
2.  Acquiring new air bases for air operations against Singapore (+ future land operations on Malaya), Palembang and Batavia
3.  The SEAC forces by themselves being inadequate to achieve anything meaningful in Indochina
 
To actually capture the whole of Sumatra would be beyond your immediate capacity.  Hence why I did not mention actual land offensives/invasions of Palembang (and Batavia or Singapore).
 
As I see it, the overwhelming priority for SEAC is to terminate, with extreme prejudice, penguin forces in Burma.  I am surprised that the penguin has not retreated in Burma and I think that he has given you an opportunity to bag his forces as the screen shot showed Victoria Point and Krung Thep ungarrisoned.  A landing at Victoria Point followed by a quick armoured thrust (followed up by the infantry) to Bangkok and Krung Thep would (a) destroy his supply line to the Burma front, and (b) if Bangkok is not held in force, allow for its capture.  With Bangkok under Allied control, then an overland invasion and resupply of Indochina becomes feasible, particularly with all those SEAC forces released subsequent to the elimination of the Burma front.
 
To achieve this SEAC success I think you need to deploy all your free SEAC forces to land at Victoria Point.  The earlier the better without wasting time transporting some to Borneo.  If the penguin sees the danger a Victoria Point landing represents to his Burma front rear, he is disadvantaged by having a greater distance (and trails NE of Rahaeng) to cover back to Bangkok/Krung Thep than you do from Victoria Point.  Alternatively he could rush from Indochina units to stabilise Bangkok (remember you may be able to blitz there and overcome the Bangkok garrison), but if he does that then Saigon may become vulnerable.
 
Another advantage of landing at Victoria Point with maximum force is that depending on how the penguin reacts to your armoured thrust to Bangkok, if the Malay peninsula is weakly garrisoned you may be able to divert some of the infantry to move down the peninsula to Singapore.  Now that you are on Borneo, I would be surprised if Singapore is not strongly garrisoned, but your intel will clarify the position.  In any case, the move to Bangkok would cut the overland transport of resources to the empire and therefore expose his convoys to sub and air interdiction from Borneo.
 
An overland invasion of Indochina is good, a seaborne invasion is too risky until Borneo is in your hands.  Firstly, your resupply convoys would be exposed to kamikazes and SC TF in the South China sea.  Secondly, because of the number of bases in the vicinity of Saigon, you would need to land a very strong force to achieve anything.  All the adjacent bases need to be captured.  IMHO you simply do not have sufficient SEAC forces to avoid a second Gallipoli.  It therefore comes down to whether the identified American and Australian units could be used for an Indochina invasion.
 
SWPac Operations
 
IMHO the American and Australian (presumably all under SWPac control with many of the latter requiring the expenditure of PP and therefore would becomes available only sequentially) are best used as follows (in descending order of priority):
 
1.  Capture of Kuching, Miri, Brunei and Jesselton
2.  Capture of Balikpapan, Samarinda, Tarakan and Sandakan
3.  Capture of Amboina, Sorong, Morotai and Menando
4.  Capture of the whole of Mindanao
5.  Capture of Sindep Island and the two bases on Belitung Island
 
These five operations, valuable as they are in themselves, are all preliminary to delivering various coups de grace against the Empire.  The rationale for these operations is:
 
A.  Capture of the Borneo north coast (IRL west coast) bases protects your flank when conducting naval operations in the South China sea.  Remember Jesselton is the largest air base on Borneo.  This operation would make a sea landing (and resupply) at Saigon much safer.  More significantly, it opens up the Hainan, Formosa and Panay islands to invasion.  Attacking penguin held islands (note I am not referring to atolls) is better than attacking mainland bases because of the far greater difficulties the penguin has in resupplying/reinforcing island bases.  I anticipate that Hainan and Formosa will give the Allies many VP.  They also open up China and Manchuria to air attack from well supplied Allied bases.  Possession of Panay opens up Luzon to invasion.  Luzon under Allied control (together with Hainan and Formosa) probably means that the Empire will have to start consuming in large quantities its HI stockpiles.  From Luzon and Formosa, B-29 can roam over Kyushu and Korea.  An invasion of Okinawa may not be necessary!  Also remember that Manila is worth a lot of points to the penguin.
 
B.  Capture of the Borneo south coast (IRL east coast) bases opens up Mindanao, Jolo, Cebu for invasion.  This therefore would be the southern route to Luzon and attendant benefits outlined in (B) above.  Alternatively when combined with the capture of the north coast bases, would release sufficient troops for the capture of Saigon and the adjacent bases outlined in my previous post to become a serious possibility.
 
C.  Capture of the Moluccas, nothern Sulewesi and Dutch West New Guinea opens up Mindanao and the southern route to Luzon.  It completes the encirclement of Makassar and Kendari.  It threatens Palau and thereby the eastern route to Luzon via Leyte and Samar.
 
D.  The capture of Mindanao leads to Luzon.  It also effectively cuts off the oil production of Balikpapan and Tarakan if you decide to bypass those bases.
 
E.  Prepares the ground for recapture of Singapore, Palembang and Java.  As previously mentioned the VP lost by the penguin here will be much more than those directly gained by you.
 
The other benefit of these five operations is that I suspect that they can be launched before all of the Australian troops become available for overseas deployment, whereas a Saigon invasion requires significant forces.  You would not be giving the penguin time to recover between blows, particularly if an early SEAC operation can be launched.  Also the penguin would have to take defensive measures against several possibilities, which is why I rate the capture of the north Borneo bases as #1.  You could then strike the penguin where he is weakest.  It is unlikely that all the areas (Indochina, Hainan, Formosa, Luzon) could be equally strongly reinforced by the penguin.
 
Regarding your CV cover, there are two comments to make.  Firstly it represents a reasonable force projection but definitely does not assure air superiority in an environment of numerous large enemy land bases.  Secondly, the real achiles heel is your navy pilot stockpile, particularly when you may be engaged in operations against Iwo Jima.
 
Hope these observations assist you.
 
Alfred 

[Alfred]

Speedy,
 
Further to mu previous post, I have tallied up the VP associated with various regions.  These are on the conservative side as they do not take into account any expansions undertaken by the penguin.
 
                Allied gain  Jap loss   Net Allied gain
 
Formosa            1140         48           1188
Luzon                1870       257           2127   (Manila contributes 1400 Allied 70 Jap, Clark is 400 Allied 32 Jap)
Mindanao              35         70             105
rest of PI              52        104             156
Hainan                  81         27             108
Sumatra                42         84             126
Java                     75        150             225
Malaya               2098        385           2483    (Singapore alone is 2000 Allied 200 Jap)
North Borneo          32          64              96
South Borneo          30          60              90
Saigon                  550          22            572
 
These figures show that Luzon, Formosa and and Malaya in VP terms dominate everything else for SEAC and SWPac.  Before moving on the first two you should conquer North Borneo.  If you want to go for Singapore you should land much closer than Victoria Point.  However I would still go for Victoria Point because it maximizes your options.  It allows for the thrust to Bangkok/Krung Thep and if Malaya/Singapore is largely undefended you can detach a small component from the Bangkok thrust to go south.
 
Your SWPac forces can clear Borneo before moving on to deliver the coup de grace at Luzon, Formosa etc.  Saigon and its adjacent bases deliver far less in VP than do Malaya, Luzon and Formosa none of which are likely able to be reinforced as quickly or strongly as would be Saigon. 
 
Alfred

[Speedysteve]

Hi all,

Hi Alfred - fantastic analysis. Thank you very much. I understand much better your thinking now. I like it if i'm honest. I will land at Victoria Point in the next 3 months with all free SEAC forces (3 months since I receive my last SEAC division in 60 days time and the recovering forces at Rangoon should be at Maximum strength then).

In the meantime I will continue to clear northern Borneo with SW Pac forces. When the time has come for Victoria Point we can see how much of Borneo is left and what state my SW Pac forces are in.

Today a further line of enemy defences were overrun at Singkawang. Just one more left. The place should fall within 3 days. As such I have started to embark 5th Australian Division, 188th USA Glider Rgt, 2 x ARM Bn's, 2 x BF, 1 x HQ at Darwin for movement to Pontianak before invading Kuching. I also have an RCT and an ARM Bn at Pontianak which will land in the 1st wave.

I have been looking at a lot of recon stuff over the past week and i'm seeing some interesting stuff. Take Malaya for example it only apopears the north of Malaya and Singapore house any Japanese forces!

Victoria Point has 20,000 men and 4 units.

Saigon has 35,000 men and 6 units.

Bangkok has 30,000 men and 5 units.

Kuching, Miri and Brunei have 4 units each. 8-10,000 men each.

I thnik i'm starting to see the draining effect Burma is having on Faber. He can't deploy a lot of force everywhere since he simply doesn't have it.

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As mentioned progress was made at Singkawang and forces are embarking at Darwin. These forces wil lbe accompanied by a small SC TF for protection - BB Royal Sovereign, 2 x cruisers, 10 x DD.

The enemy convoy hit yesterday east of Palembang was attacked again today by Pontianak LBA. Interestingly there were 35 x George on CAP but I only lost 1 x Mossie and my Corsairs only damaged 1 x George! MSW Wa18 was hit hard by shells and a bomb.

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Saipan's B29's hit Matsuyama's large Mitsubishi Engine plant. There were no enemy fighters on CAP and the plany was hit hard with 64/80 production disabled[:)] We rest tomorrow.

Faber has snuck in a bomber and recon unit onto Tinian. They won't last long tomorrow as a CV TF will smash the airfield.

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SS Cisco performed averagely today. I had moved her in the path of a tracked convoy 240 miles SW of Camranh Bay. She found the convoy and fired 10 x torpedo at 2 x AP - AP Sekko Maru carrying troops was hit with a torpedo but 6 missed AP Santos Maru.

Air sightings = 5
Air attacks = 1

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An LCI(G) and 2 x AK arrive in theatre tomorrow.

[Alfred]

Speedy,
 
It is a pity that your recon now shows a 20,000 man garrison at Victoria Point because in the next 3 months the penguin may reinforce the garrison (and elsewhere in Malaya).  To me this now disclosed garrison strengthens the need to land maximum force at Victoria Point.  Your recon also indicates that you should keep an eye out for other locations, eg Georgetown, Kuala Lumpur etc.  I just do not believe that the penguin can garrison everything adequately.  You have the initiative and command of the Andaman Sea and therefore can use your mobility to strike wherever he is weak.
 
Originally I assumed that the move from Moulmein to pin his Tavoy units would have occurred contemporaneously with the Victoria Point landing.  Now that he has a garrison there, perhaps an early move from Moulmein to Tavoy would encourage the penguin to reinforce Tavoy from Victoria Point thereby making your subsequent sea invasion easier.  Of course this idea is dependent on the penguin fearing that your Moulmein units would by themselves suffice to capture Tavoy.  A withdrawal from Tavoy to Victoria Point is also in your interest.
 
Of course if any of my suggestions assist you in achieving success then I will bask in the warm glow of victory, if they lead to failure then I will disclaim any responsibility and blame you.  Hmm, that sounds a bit like a certain commander of SWPac and subsequently shogun of Japan.
 
Alfred

[Nemo121]

In those circumstances if I were you I'd go for a landing as far south in the Malaysian peninsula as I could manage. Most people strip the rear echelons to reinforce the front. I bet you Faber has done that and that Victoria etc have been reinforced at the expense of Johore, Singers etc.