Will Chungking Hold? Place your bets!

[RUPD3658]

It is Feb 9th, 1944 and after 20 months of seige I am ready to assault Chungking again. It has been bombarded every turn for the last 20 months and has been under air attack by over 1000 AC for the last month. These were the last 3 probing assaults by 1 Mongolian Cav unit:

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 12/29/43

Ground combat at Chungking

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 14821 troops, 448 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1471

Defending force 266762 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 9353

Japanese max assault: 23 - adjusted assault: 0

Allied max defense: 7507 - adjusted defense: 11021

Lowered the Max defense by 200 since 12/11 but the Adjusted went up by 304. Probably just the die roll.

Japanese assault odds: 0 to 1 (fort level 9)


Japanese ground losses:
406 casualties reported
Guns lost 2

Allied ground losses:
548 casualties reported

After this attack I started round the clock bombing despite the weather and added TB/DB/and FTRs to the mix. AV dropped dramatically.
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AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 01/16/44

Ground combat at Chungking

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 14736 troops, 448 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1468

Defending force 263090 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 9162

Japanese max assault: 21 - adjusted assault: 0

Allied max defense: 7443 - adjusted defense: 1969

This I can deal with. 90% drop from 3 weeks ago. The round the clock bombing must be having an effect.

Japanese assault odds: 0 to 1 (fort level 9)


Japanese ground losses:
156 casualties reported
Guns lost 2

Allied ground losses:
88 casualties reported
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AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 01/28/44

Ground combat at Chungking

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 14620 troops, 449 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1462

Defending force 262334 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 9134

Japanese max assault: 19 - adjusted assault: 0

Allied max defense: 7409 - adjusted defense: 2193

Japanese assault odds: 0 to 1 (fort level 9)


Japanese ground losses:
139 casualties reported
Guns lost 2

Allied ground losses:
223 casualties reported

My assualt force will be about 20,000 AV. Fat/Disruption is about 30, morale is in the 90s as is experience. Everyone is 100% prepped for Chungking. Lots of HQs are in range. The only minus is that supply will be between 90-100% of required so I will suffer a penatly.

The attack will be a shock attack.

So, do you think Chungking will hold or fall?

[pauk]

I think you have 50% chances to capture Chungking. City will hold - or fall.

[:D]

[pasternakski]

ORIGINAL: RUPD3658
So, do you thinki Chungking will hold or fall?

Are you playing against the AI? If so, you have about as much of a chance as a boar's balls in an Iowa feedlot the day before Easter dinner ("Anybody fer sum pig nuts?").

[Dino]

Damned if I know what an Iowa feedlot is, but there is something prophetic in pasternakskis words. [:D]

Urban hex...level 9 forts ...and then this:

...supply will be between 90-100% of required so I will suffer a penatly.

I would suggest at least one month of deliberate attacks to lower the forts (4 day cycles: bombard with all units, rest, attack, rest...rinse and repeat).

If you are set on a shock attack, you should at least bombard with all units first to raise their supply requirements and then rest them for a turn (or two) to allow the supplies to reach them.

Good luck...you'll need it.

[stldiver]

Isn't in every 7 days you get a supply cycle that fully supplies your troops, that is what I have seen, I attack on these days, exspecially when fighting down trails. The other days the troops just lose supply but there is always one day they get supplied delay and attack on the day following full supply they will be ready then, unless there isn't enough supply to get them there, then have at it.

Good Luck.

[RUPD3658]

Should have said:

PBEM, stock scn 15, ver 1.08.04

[RUPD3658]

ORIGINAL: Dino

Damned if I know what an Iowa feedlot is, but there is something prophetic in pasternakskis words. [:D]

Urban hex...level 9 forts ...and then this:

...supply will be between 90-100% of required so I will suffer a penatly.

I would suggest at least one month of deliberate attacks to lower the forts (4 day cycles: bombard with all units, rest, attack, rest...rinse and repeat).

If you are set on a shock attack, you should at least bombard with all units first to raise their supply requirements and then rest them for a turn (or two) to allow the supplies to reach them.

Good luck...you'll need it.

We are playing with 2 day turns. Will this effect getting the supplies to the front after an attack?

[Dino]

We are playing with 2 day turns. Will this effect getting the supplies to the front after an attack?

Never played with 2 day turns, but i don't think it should have much effect.

If you go with the siege option, it will prolong it a bit since it will have to be 6 day cycles (2 x bombard, 2 x rest, attack, rest).

BTW, where are your major HQs located? I hope they are stockpiling supplies in Changsha.

[RUPD3658]

Chnagsha has over 280,000 supplies. The HQs have marched with the troops to Chungking.

I have added transport planes to Changsha to drop supplies to the troops at Chungking. It is only a few hundred per turn but since most units are only 1-2 supplies short of being even it should make a difference.

[RUPD3658]

The assault has been ordered. Final assaulting AV is 17,777 with even supplies (none in the red). Weather is overcast so there should be a preliminary air bombardment to disrupt the defenders.

Stay tuned.......

[pasternakski]

Good luck. As you are playing against a human, I think your chances are much better.

Banzai!

[RUPD3658]

Inspite of horrific losses progress was made. Now I must wait for replacenments and some wayward units to finish the job. Suprisingly my unit's morale did not suffer and Chinese losses were less than the average from a turn of bombardment.

Day 1:

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 02/15/44

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Ground combat at Chungking

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 1082816 troops, 11626 guns, 1776 vehicles, Assault Value = 21139

Defending force 263064 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 9059

Japanese max assault: -24566 - adjusted assault: 6081

Allied max defense: 7314 - adjusted defense: 1817

Japanese assault odds: 3 to 1 (fort level 9)

Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 6


Japanese ground losses:
137006 casualties reported[X(]
Guns lost 3031
Vehicles lost 161

Allied ground losses:
4071 casualties reported

Day 2:

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AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 02/16/44


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Ground combat at Chungking

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 889486 troops, 7261 guns, 1510 vehicles, Assault Value = 11545

Defending force 257919 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 8801

Japanese max assault: 8172 - adjusted assault: 1100

Allied max defense: 6942 - adjusted defense: 1593

Japanese assault odds: 0 to 1 (fort level 6)


Japanese ground losses:
43982 casualties reported
Guns lost 844
Vehicles lost 124

Allied ground losses:
3901 casualties reported

[castor troy]

lol, what a joke! [X(][8|] This is the reason why I never ever try to take urban hexes with auto supply where more than only a few troops are. As everyone knows the ground combat is more "broken" than the A2A... Never seen such losses...

[veji1]

Yoohoo... It will fall for sure... If you bomb round the clock to prevent rebuilding, and attack again in 3 weeks or so, it will fall... getting 3-1 in your first assault is a great result...

Could you give us an estimate of the average Disruption/Fatigue of your units ? How many army points did you loose ?

[RUPD3658]

I lost 205 VP worth of ground troops and their avg disruption is 88. Suprizingly, morale is still in the 90s.

[Charles2222]

ORIGINAL: RUPD3658

I lost 205 VP worth of ground troops and their avg disruption is 88. Suprizingly, morale is still in the 90s.

Wouldn't it be funny if once they regained their senses, then their morale plummeted?

[rtrapasso]

ORIGINAL: RUPD3658

I lost 205 VP worth of ground troops and their avg disruption is 88. Suprizingly, morale is still in the 90s.

Is it 6 squads destroyed = 1 point?

If so, that would make it 1230 squads destroyed, or more than a full regular IJA division!![X(]

[Nikademus]

how many divisions were chewed up at Stalingrad?

[mogami]

Hi, And by the combat report he should have lost 3k VP so it's not as bad as the reports. But making shock attacks 2 days in a row is foolish. (it takes 5 or 6 days to even be near recovering.)
Also no matter how many troops are reported as attacking they do not all always attack. Arty does not always fire and units can be turned back by defensive fire before the shock attack is resolved (but they still count the toops and guns in totals)

[Nikademus]

He was doing two day turns so it was manditory.....outside of that i'd agree....its not a good idea under any circumstances to shock attack against level 9 forts (out of supply condition might be an exception)
Even more so as Japanese as they always take far more casualties in high intensity assaults than your average Allied unit. While it may be mostly disablements, it'll still take a long time for them to be recovered. Banzai baby! If you have engineers, a delib attack can still reduce the forts albeit slower but with less casualties.