Weathering the Storm: East Wind Rain (Joint AAR-Tallyho! v gillesthib)

[saj42]

EDIT: This is now (from 13 April 07) a joint AAR. Game time 1 Feb 42 Tallyho! as Allies, Gillesthib as Japan


WEATHERING THE STORM – the trials and tribulations of an Englishman in the Far East – and beyond.

This is my first PBEM. Having played the AI for nearly two years, restarting after most major patches and releases of new Mods, I’ve taken the plunge. My opponent is gillesthib.
This is BigB Mod v1.31, scen 192 (extended map) on WITP v1.804, played in 2 day turns.

Two day turns are new to me so expect many stupid moves in the early months as I get to grips with it – as well as unlearning my bad habits gained playing the AI. A standard selection of house rules, plus no ‘gamey exploits’ have been agreed.
Lets see what the Japanese first turn brings…….

STRATEGY
Well that’s easy for 1941 – survive as best I can.
DEI / PI / Malaya - Spoiling attacks from Air and Sea assets will be used where the opportunity presents itself. Redeployment of LCUs to create strong-points is the No1 priority. Move Dutch oil to Oz.
India / Burma - Move units up to strengthen defences, between Colombo & Dacca. Move supplies forward to Calcutta whilst I’ve got the Indian Ocean to myself.
Pacific - Sit tight in Hawaii. Push reinforcements forward to garrison Palmyra, Canton, Pago Pago, Suva and Nandi.
West Coast – move supplies and fuel forward to hubs along the US-Oz supply route.
China – Reorganise!. Move SEAC units to Lashio, and units East of Wuchow into Canton (to disrupt the attack on HK)

[saj42]

411207 – 411208

The forces of the Empire of Japan unleash a furious attack on the bastions of Colonialism in the Far East. Consternation reigns at the highest levels of Allied Military Command (Me). Previous plans and wargames (aka vs AI) didn’t prepare them for this opening gambit. Actions in the next few days will be reactionary as forces shift position. Screenies to follow.

The British have got off lightly so far. No landings in Malaya, but Brunei, Miri, and Kuching have been subject to amphib landings.

US forces however are hard pressed in the PI. Seaborne landings occurred at Aparri, Vigan, San Fernando, Legaspi, Iloilo, Jolo Is, Batan Is, San Jose Buenavista and Roxas. Para landings at Lamon Bay, Taytay, Puerto Princesa, Laoang, Tuguegarao, Aparri, Vigan and Baguio. Only the Baguio drop was repulsed.
.
The Dutch have reported landings at Amboina, Boela, Sorong (in the south east) and Sinkawang and Pontianak (north west) of the DEI. Force Z and a Dutch SCTF are planning an attack on Pontianak – withdrawal set to Batavia. When Kuching falls (9th?) then Nells will rule the seas south of Singapore so this is the best opportunity I’ll get to hit an invasion force. I hope the Nells out of Saigon are still on airfield attack….

In the Pacific, the usual capture of Tarawa and Wake, with Guam looking to follow suit tomorrow. Seems like an early push into SWPAC is on the cards; Kavieng has enemy troops ashore on Dec 7th. US CVs ran for 2 days to a secret rendezvous – and found 4 I-boats there (fortunately no damage). KB is heading north west so that at least is historical.

The big surprise was how well a small Dutch SCTF faired against a numerically superior IJN TF in three engagements. All long-lances were expended for NO hits but the De Ruyter suffered 4x 8inch shell hits (heavy damage). Withdrawing now to Soerabaja via Kendari.

[sprior]

[saj42]

Results of PH Strike

Not a good attack from the IJN. Airfield losses are what would be expected; the port attack only sank 1 ship – DD Litchfield. Here’s what the damage looked like on the evening of Dec 8.



When the KB and subs have gone, all BBs over 40 Sys damage will be sent back to WC, initial heading south east to avoid any obvious I-boat patrol lines

[saj42]

Philippine SitRep

This is the view during the orders phase at the start of the second 2 day turn (411209). Fragments of Para units were dropped all over the PI (see earlier post) resulting in all those empty bases being captured.
The unit count at San Fernando is approx 29
My assumption is that the majority are from Samah and Pescadores (Arty / Constr / Armd etc). This means my frontline won’t have time to get established and build the forts any further.

As a divergence from history, Manila will NOT be declared an open city; Mac is going to make his last stand here (more supplies and terrain bonus). I hope that when my units are forced to retreat from Clarke they go here and not Bataan.

[saj42]

On Dec 10, Adm Kimmel awakens from his slumber and looks out the window - the Pacific fleet lies burning again.
'When did this happen ?' he asks his aides.
'Erm Yesterday' they reply 'we were so busy watching Adm Hart's battles that we missed it' [X(]

N.B. The replay synch bug strikes. The witp001 file didn't show it, but the combatreport.txt does


Pearl Harbour II

At end of 411208 my subs patrols to NW of Pearl were tracking the KB moving NW back towards Japan. So I set all my patrol a/c to naval search range 8 alt 4k to check for subs. I also put out one ASW TF of 4 Flush Deck DDs.

Unfortunately on 411209 the KB sprinted back and launched a second raid on PH. The damaged list is looking a lot worse and 3 of the 4 DDs at sea were lost to Kates. With so many a/c still unserviceable from the first raid the CAP was negligible. As a small consolation 27 Vals and Kates were lost this day.


DEI

The US Asiatic fleet, in a poorly co-ordinated night attack on Jap shipping off Jolo, lost CA Houston and 2x DDs. Two more DDs will sink and CL Marblehead is heavily damaged from 2 long-lances. CL Boise escapes with 3 Sys damage[&o]
-----------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Jolo at 39,59

Allied aircraft losses
SOC-3 Seagull: 2 destroyed

Japanese Ships
CA Maya
CA Ashigara
CL Natori
CL Kuma
DD Satsuki
DD Minazuki
DD Fumizuki
DD Nagatsuki
DD Asakaze
DD Harukaze
DD Matsukaze
DD Hatakaze

Allied Ships
CA Houston, Shell hits 62, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Jolo at 39,59

Japanese Ships
CA Maya, Shell hits 1
CA Ashigara
CL Natori
CL Kuma, Shell hits 1
DD Satsuki
DD Minazuki
DD Fumizuki
DD Nagatsuki
DD Asakaze, Shell hits 1
DD Harukaze
DD Matsukaze
DD Hatakaze

Allied Ships
CL Marblehead, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
DD Barker, Shell hits 4, on fire
DD Bulmer, Shell hits 2
DD Paul Jones, Shell hits 12, on fire, heavy damage
DD Parrott, Shell hits 1
DD Stewart

-----------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Jolo at 39,59

Japanese Ships
CA Maya, Shell hits 7
CA Ashigara
CL Natori
CL Kuma
DD Satsuki
DD Minazuki
DD Fumizuki
DD Nagatsuki
DD Asakaze
DD Harukaze, Shell hits 1
DD Matsukaze
DD Hatakaze, Shell hits 1, on fire

Allied Ships
CL Boise, Shell hits 5, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
DD Alden, Shell hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
DD Edsall
DD John D. Edwards, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Whipple, Shell hits 5, on fire

-----------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Jolo at 39,59

Japanese Ships
CA Maya, Shell hits 1
CA Ashigara, Shell hits 2
CL Natori
CL Kuma, Shell hits 5, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
DD Satsuki
DD Minazuki
DD Fumizuki
DD Nagatsuki
DD Asakaze
DD Harukaze
DD Matsukaze
DD Hatakaze, on fire

Allied Ships
DD John D. Ford
DD Peary, Shell hits 16, on fire, heavy damage
DD Pillsbury, Shell hits 22, and is sunk
DD Pope, Shell hits 6, on fire, heavy damage

[saj42]

411211 - 411212

China
IJA units on move towards Honan.
9 IJA units continue to bombard Hong Kong while 4 Chinese Regional Army Corps are about to enter Canton (only 4 Jap units reported there). Can I get there and disrupt the siege of Hong Kong before he reinforces?
Burma
4 enemy LCUs detected on the Siam/Burma border heading for Taung Gyi.
Move moves seen near Victoria Pt, Tavoy, or Moulmein.
I think my opponent is attempting a flanking move to isolate the southern half of Burma. Too late! all forces are already retreating to Mandalay / Akyab / Lashio. Rangoon is defended by a token force so I can maintain an air bridge for air units in Malaya
Malaya
No landings – only air attacks by Lilys and Sallys.
DEI
With Nells at Kuching, shipping in the northern area is at grave risk (no oil and fuel will get out of Palembang now). Force Z pulls out of Batavia and moves south. Dutch navy concentrates at Soerabaja. PPs are spent moving small garrisons to important bases – only possible because, even though Amboina has fallen – there are no a/c based there. The remnants of the US Asiatic fleet regroup at Batavia under Dutch CAP. An SCTF spotted heading for Tarakan – we vector subs onto the expected retirement route.
PI
Baguio is invested by upto 25 enemy units. No assault yet, so we hunker down and pray. Forces in Lingayen are ordered to retreat (sorry redeploy) to Manila. Bettys now based at Jolo Is so the southern escape route is CLOSED.
S-36 missed an opportunity to put a fish into BB Haruna. This SCTF hasn’t moved for 2 days so 3 more subs are sent to San Fernando to try their luck.
Mindanao is the only area that hasn’t been targeted.
Pacific
Nauru Is falls as IJN strengthens its grip in the Gilberts.
Worst of all a third raid on PH on the 11th puts sys damage on most BBs towards the 80s. but another 22 Vals and 8 Kates are lost. US CVs were loitering around Canton Is, but due to fuel shortages in the area, I must send them back to PH


Surely KB cannot keep this up much longer – 47 Vals and 38 Kates lost in total so far – that is serious pilot attrition, for damage to BBs I don’t need until 1943

[saj42]

411213 – 411214

China
IJA forces move towards the hex SE of Honan. Chinese forces continue to crawl to Canton.
Malaya
Only air attacks. From the units in the screenie below I now know why there’s been no invasion here – the 5th and 18th IJA Divs are in Luzon. I’m going to gamble and send a Bde up the Malaya peninsula towards Bangkok and see whats happening (maybe it will escape overland to India). Everyone else digs in. Nells in Kuching prevent any major attempt to either reinforce or evacuate Singapore, but will try to sneak AKs with supplies in.
DEI
Only air attacks
PI
Two shock attacks on Baguio are barely repulsed, forts down to 1. It will be all over with the next shock attack. Naga holds (1 PA Div against 16th IJA Div + SNLF)

Gen Homma must be in favour with the Emporer to get this many troops.


Pacific
All quiet, KB has disappeared – all PBY squadrons go to 100% search at max range. Convoys from West Coast swing further south and will rendezvous with additional escorts at Christmas Is. Palmyra and Canton Is will be reinforced, I don’t have the assets for PagoPago or Suva yet.
PNG
PM gets its first reinforcements. A joint US/Oz SCTF recorded a successful bombardment run on the NLF unit in Kavieng.

[saj42]

a multi-turn post....
411215-411216

PI
Naga and Baguio fall. Additional landings at Lamon Bay - now 14 units.
That makes at least 50 units counted on Luzon. No wonder there is no activity in Malaya.
Pacific
Guam still holding out
China
Attacks on HK reduce forts to 5 (engineers), odds are still 0-1
Elsewhere
Quiet

411217-411218

Pacific
Guam falls after a heroic stand.
KB reappears at 126,62 and slaughters a supply convoy.

411219-411220

China
2 days of shock attacks take forts down to 1 - not long now
Pacific
KB (now 132,68) slaughters another supply convoy. My TFs can't scatter fast enough.
My 3x CVs (in separate TFs) are cruising 2 hexes off the southeast of Hawaii (set to 0 reaction and all following an SCTF). Hoping to pull KB into LBA range.

411221-411222

China
The envelopment of Honan is under way and a pincer movement on Yenan is forming up. I can see whats happening, but with static units and most mobile reserves expected to take a month to reach the front, there is nothing to do.
Hong Kong falls (IJA used 2x Div, 2x Engr, 3x Arty & 2x HQ)
Malaya
For the last 8 days or so Jap air has been doing A/F attacks in Malaya. Evacuation convoys arrived at Georgetown and Victoria Pt yesterday so will attempt to pull out a couple of 'complete' units.

411223-411224

PI
Probing attack on Bataan, 4x Div plus support. Not had the 2 months one usually has to get the forts up.
Malaya
Victoria Pt convoys got hit by air strikes but 1/2 the BF should make it.
First Georgetown convoy got out under cloud cover.

411225-411226

PI
Bataan forts reduced to 1 - but attacks are still 0-1 (damned engineers). Can they hold out until reinforcement arrive in 3 days (Constabulary Div). Cebu falls
Pacific
KB hits small supplyconvoy and a small tanker convoy. It is now 1/2 way on the line between Hawaii and Panama. I'm repositioning subs from east of PH to sotheast and south west. Got to keep the Jake float plane sighting reports coming in to track KBs progress.

[saj42]

411227-411228

Its all happening in the Pacific.
KB reveals itself at 127,96 and sinks a cripple.
Invasion TF spotted at Canton Is. The PBY squadron there (100% naval search) didn't see them until in the same hex [&:] Initial shock attack repulsed.
My CVs, 2 hex north of Lahaina start a speed run aiming to get to a point 180 miles west of Canton Is
Is this a sensible move?[X(]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Coastal Guns at Canton Island, 100,100, firing at TF 157
TF 157 troops unloading over beach at Canton Island, 100,100


825 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.
Japanese Ships
AK Biwa Maru, Shell hits 3, on fire
AK Yamahuku Maru, Shell hits 12, on fire, heavy damage
AK Syunsei Maru, Shell hits 6, on fire
AP Otori Maru, Shell hits 6, on fire, heavy damage
AP Mitsu Maru #3, Shell hits 7, on fire, heavy damage
AP Kanayamasan Maru, Shell hits 7, on fire, heavy damage

Japanese ground losses:
996 casualties reported
Guns lost 2
Vehicles lost 1
-------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at Canton Island

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 1652 troops, 48 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 3

Defending force 940 troops, 23 guns, 6 vehicles, Assault Value = 7


Japanese ground losses:
506 casualties reported
Guns lost 16
Vehicles lost 6
-----------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at Canton Island

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 280 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1

Defending force 4154 troops, 62 guns, 14 vehicles, Assault Value = 3

Japanese max assault: 0 - adjusted assault: 0

Allied max defense: 2 - adjusted defense: 23

Japanese assault odds: 0 to 1 (fort level 0)
-------------------------------------------------------

Oh I nearly forgot - Bataan fell [:(]

[sprior]

Is this a sensible move?

Only if you're sure that KB is far, far away.

[saj42]

411229-411230

Pacific
The 56th ID unloads in the face of determined and agressive coastal defense (the BF is supported by a US FA Regt). Despite numerous hits to APs and DDs and 2000+ troop disablements, the defenders are overwhelmed by sheer numbers; the arrival of a bombardment TF (1xBB, 4xCA, 6xCL, 13xDD) didn't help either. My brave PT Boats (5) engaged this TF 4 times (got surprise in 1st round)- all were sunk but they put a torp into 2 IJN DDs

My CVs (fortunately) didn't make it all the way to Canton Is (6 hexes short) and were not spotted.

411231-420101

Pacific
Moved my CVs to the hex NE of Gardner Island, all SBDs range set to normal so only 1000lb bombs carried.
On the 31st I got 4 strikes on transport TFs, hitting 5xAPs and 5xDD (men lost from 4th ID). Many TFs were under cloud.
On 1st, Baby KB was spotted and strikes were exchanged, mine went in first but that ddin't seem to effect the days outcome. A small strike against Saratoga TF was wiped out. A larger strike against Enterprise TF (31 Kates) got through the CAP and put 6 torps into her (damage 33/89/10). My three strikes resulted in the following

CVE Hosho - 8 bombs, 1 torp (1 ammo expl, 1 fuel expl) - SUNK
CVL Zuiho - 6 bombs, 2 torps (1 ammo expl, 1 fuel expl) - SUNK
CVL Ryujo - 6 bombs, 2 torps (1 fuel expl)
2x DDs also hit

BURMA
the following Divs identified at border near Taung Gyi - 33rd/55th/ImpGds

420102-420103

SWPAC
Rabaul captured - last defenders pulled out and redeployed at least a week ago.

PI
First IJA units enter Manila hex and bombardments exchanged
Looks like Mindanao is next with Bombardment TF hitting Cagayan and landing at base due east.

Pacific
CV Enterprise is still afloat, but with aspeed of 6 she won't get far. I move her to Gardner Is and hope that damage control can keep her afloat (at end of third damage is at 34/93/4). My remaining AC TFs moved SSE as several enemy TFs are reported heading to the south and southwest. I guess correct and pummel several transport TFs and am surprised to find Ryujo still afloat - but not much longer

CVL Ryujo - 7 bomb hits (5 ammo expl, 1 fuel expl) - SUNK

Yes sprior I think it was worth it. Enterprises air groups transferred to my other CVs but NONE are overloaded (saved 1/2 the SBDs but only a few TBDs and Wildcats).

[ny59giants]

In the long term you should come out Ok even if you lose "E" [&o]
That will leave him with only KB and have him to choose whether to keep it intact or split it up.

[saj42]

Well I can say that I did loose 'Big E'.
Losses for the Canton Is campaign as at 420107 are:
Allies - 1x CV, 5x DMS, 5x PT
Japan (FOW confirmed) - 2x CVL, 1x CVE, 7x DD, 9x AP, 2xAK

The scores

[saj42]

The Japanese Empire as at 420101

[saj42]

420104-420105

Pacific
CV Enterprise, at Gardner Is ,trying to repair flotation damage, is caught by SCTF and sunk. Same SCTF is hit by a/c from other US CVs (CA Kinugasa gets 4 penetrating 1000lb bombs, CL Kiso 2 penetrating 1000lbers, and BB Mutsu 2 torps [both duds[:@]] 7 1000lb bombs [3 turret and 4 deck hits])

Burma
3 IJA Divs cross border near Taung Gyi

420106-420107

PI
My first sub loss - S-37 sunk at San Fernando.
First IJA shock attack at Manila, I'm outnumbered 200k to 50k. Adjusted AV J:848/A:3969, losses J:9k/A:3K, forts reduced to 0.

DEI
Force Z has been lurking around Koepang for an opportunity to get amongst the transports at Amboina for about 10 days. I've not gone in as an IJN SCTF of 2BB 4CA 4CL & 13DD has been there, and I'm not going to waste the cream of the RN in an unequal battle. But now Bettys have appeared there so back to colombo for R&R.


420108-420109

Malaya
Nells and Zeros have been hitting Georgetown A/F for the last 4 days and i've only put up token resistance. will move in more Buffaloes to spring ambush on 10th.

DEI
Landing underway at Manado (Celebes)

Pacific
USN forces fall back to xxxxxxxx and refuel/rearm.

China
Yenen is about to be surrounded and put under seige. There is a standoff in the hex SE of Honan. There are a lot of IJA LCUs in both locations (I hope PPs have been paid if Kwantang Command units are being used)

[saj42]

OK I've got a bit behind here so just brief notes to get me up to Feb 42

420110-420111

PI - IJN naval bombardment of Davao and several TFs spotted moving towards Mindanao.
DEI - Landing at Madang that my Dutch Patrol a/c didn't see coming (Pilot experience obviously plays a part here)
NG/NB - Landing at Gasmata
Malaya - My ambush at Georgetown worked A2A losses 1x Buff and 2x AVG Curtiss' for 7x Zero and 5x Nell.

420112-420113

NG/NB - Gasmata falls to SNLF while Lae falls to Para shock attack

420114-420115

PI - Davao falls, this leaves Cagayan as the only base left in Mindanao. A/C flown out to Kendari before it fell.
DEI - Madang falls
NG/NB - Buna falls to shock attack by paras - Gilles loves his paras [:(]

420118-420119

PI - Manila has been under deliberate and bombardment attacks for over a week now, and finally fell today. I started building forts from day one, they start at 1 and by today had grown to a massive 1+49% [:@]. Suffice to say the 6 IJA Engr Regts didn't take long to reduce the forts. The writing for Manila had been on the wall for a long time - no way to build a defense with the blitzkreig Jap advance, and at the end, nearly 60 units in the final attack (incl 5 Divs).

420120-420121

China - Yenen has been surrounded and bombardments will start soon i fear. I'm not going to commit too many troops here as forces are massing SE of Honan as well.

420122-420123

China - My troops took so long marching to Canton that the IJA army that captured HongKong had time to march back into Canton. My first deliberate attack failed. Time to rest and start a war of attrition here.
Burma - A forward defense is not what I planned here so units have pulled back from the border. t last the first IJA units (33/55/IG divs) have crossed border into Taung Gyi. It will fall tomorrow. Smaller units appear to be almost at Tavoy, already abandoned.
DEI - Dutch Patrol Sqdns fail again and an amphib TF is on the doorstep of Tarakan. time to pull the a/c out and accept this base will be lost.

420126-420127

China - By now the majority of my Guerilla units have been hunted down and destroyed. IJA forces finally reach Pucheng, after being delayed by the guerilla units in that area, and their first attack results in heavy jap losses. This will be stalemate until fresh Bdes can be found to press home the IJA assualt.

420128-420129

China - Yenen forts fall from 4 to 2, IJA get odds of 3-1, so not long now - hoped this base would last longer.
DEI - Tarakan falls on the second day, but not before Adm Doorman with his small Dutch SCTF wreak havoc on two unescorted transport TFs 2 hexes SE of Tarakan. 1 AP sunk and 7 AP/AKs heavily damaged for only 1 shell hit on Dutch DD

420130-420131

China - Yenen falls. I made a couple of mistakes in this part of China and I pay the price.

[saj42]

My opponent and I have decided this AAR will now become joint so we can analyse strategies 'after the fact'. It will mean more CRs (extracts anyway) and less on short term plans. We will pick up from 1st Feb 1942

To start off, a review of the current VPs and major losses. The next few posts will have a stategic map, the Japanese battle plan from Dec 6th, and my analysis of my (poor) performance in the first 7 weeks.

[saj42]

The following is the content of the email sent by my opponeent GillesThib, for the Initial Japanese Plans. The strategic map to follow will show how well they have been met.

QUOTE:

12-07-41 Climb Mount Nitake.

There is no path to peace. War it will be.
The decision is done and as the commander of all Japanese forces I have the honor (or maybe late in the war the burden) to carry out the strike against the allied in the Pacific and Far East as well as in china where our army has been inactive in the past two years.

The initial plans of the attack provided by the most notorious officers were to launch three major attacks on the allied.
Pearl-Harbor: Carrier air strike on the US fleet
Philippines: combined invasion landing
Malaya: combined invasion landing on the northern peninsula in Kotha Baru + an air strike on Singapour.


Plus some smaller attacks on different bases in the pacific and nei.

The plan was clever, but as a commander in chief I had to give my personnal touch, keeping the best of it and adding what I hope makes the difference between a good commander and one who will remain in the history books.

Moreover who knows if the allied do not know about our plans. This is the reason why I shall reveal step by step what is the plan, and how it went.

The code name for our plan is “ EAST WIND RAIN”
The date is 12-07-41
The code for launching the strike is “Climb Mount Nitake”

Pacific theatre:

Pearl –Harbor

The KB is heading to PH and will strike early morning.
Admiral Yamagushi is in command, my choice against Naguno.
The KB is ordered to withdraw north of Ph after the first launch, but stay in the water for another launch on the third days depending on the result of the battle.
After the attacks on PH the Kb with its replenishment fleet will sail North East – East -South East to meet with an invasion force on Canton Island.
• The first idea is to strike some allied convoys
• eventually damaged ships which try to find safe harbors on the west-coast of USA.
• Lure the CV TF north to protect PH and communication lines preventing them to go south and striking the invasion force of canton.

Timing is essential

Canton:

Canton a small island in the pacific is the target of a massive invasion.
Canton will be the advance post of the Japanese in the south pacific and is a essential part of the “east wind rain plan”
I choose canton over Midway or Palmyra as I believe those two islands are closer to PH, harder to defend if PH is still in US hands. I believe that it was not feaseable to carry out an invasion on PH in the early days of war, even if the idea was very tempting.

Two Japanese divisions shall be part of the invasion force.
The SKB will meet with the invasion forces close to the island of Tarawa
A Surface fleet with a bombardment mission will sail also to the meeting point.
The KB must by this time be in a position to strike north east of canton.

Wake – Guam – Rabaul – Tarawa are targeted as in the initial plan.


Philippines:

I believe that we must move fast in Philippines. If our forces are delayed on those Island it will give time to the allied to block our force and prevent our moves also in Malaya and Burna. Moreover I do not want to give time to the allied to build forts in the Philippines which will lead to other delays and additional casualties.
As a commander in chief I assumed that it is better to focus on one objective and succeed than on many and failed.

My decision is to not strike Malaya and focus most of our forces in Luzon – Mindano. I want Philippines to fall by middle of January. February will be considered as a failure.

Malaya:

The consequence is to give ground to the CW in Malaya.
In order to limit the ground I shall target Borneo (Kuching) and Burna (tavoy) with Bangkok to be able to naval air strike forces going out/in Singapore –Malaya.
I shall also have a invasion strike force on Ambonia in the NEI to be establish a base able to spot naval movements from or to Australia.

Burna:

The core of my land divisions in Thailand, Cambodgia, and Indochina are assigned to move north to Burna. It will be a difficult march in hostile ground but once out of the jungle, they will be able to move fast on Rangoon and Mandalay. Anyway I believe that the W commander will withdraw fast on an Indian defensive perimeter even a daring one in Mandalay to let open the Burna road to china.

China:

China will have been better an allied than an enemy. Anyway decision to strike in china in 36
Cannot be prevent, and it is my duty to act in this theatre and not let believe that the situation has come to a stalemate.

First duty for army group south is to capture Hong-Kong, a major industrial city rule by the british who supplies the nationalist Chinese against us.
Second duty secured the external perimeter

Third capture the city still holding on our behind as Yemen – Honam and suppressed the guerrillas.

This one the initial plan.

I have to meet the emperor by the end of January and report about the situation.

[saj42]

The strategic situation