'stuffing' the border

[WiFDaniel]

ORIGINAL: brian brian

I think that if the Germans don't launch some sort of Balkan campaign concurrent with a French campaign, the probability the Russians can deny it is higher than 75% (...)

As the Germans draw twice as many chits (and are face-up), their chits should trend more towards the average than the Russians. So the bigger variable is the Russian chits and if they draw a lot of unlucky low ones they will know this by late 1940 and can act accordingly (in 1941 the odds of low chits decrease significantly).

At this stage, we need to be fact-based and run the numbers. Qualitative comments don't help as much, IMHO.

Daniel

[WiFDaniel]

Many players ... just house-rule the pact-breaking entry system out of existence...many WiF players feel nothing could have prevented Hitler from this decision, but Harry has made this part of the game and it is not even an optional rule.

This can turn into a highly-debated discussion, and we'd better not get there.

"many WiF players" is again relevant to some circles only. Among the 15+ players I've played with the last 5 years, none thought it an issue.

As I have kept saying for a while, the only way out of this one is to ask Harry.

Cheers,

Daniel

[brian brian]

btw, thanks for the poster way at the top who pointed out that neutrals can't advance build. I've built the 1942 8-1 GARR in advance many times as Russia and no one has ever mentioned that to me. You learn a tiny bit of WiF every time you dive into it.

and yeah I had the offensive/defensive face-up/face-down reversed up there. It usually takes me until about Mar/Apr 1940 in any given game to get that straightened out.

I don't think anyone will ever be able to come up with a hard probability # for chances to break the pact, there are just too many variables. As I am fond of saying, the outcomes in the Balkans are truly Byzantine.

I've personally known a few people who scrap parts of the pact rules. Whether that is 'many' or not I can't say. We don't change them in my regular face-to-face game.

[WiFDaniel]

I don't think anyone will ever be able to come up with a hard probability # for chances to break the pact, there are just too many variables.

I've observed that for a while.

Should you split USE from Ge/Ru pact, and have an infinite pool, probabilities would be veryeasy.

However, handling maths for a finite pool of chits & taking USE into account makes it extremely difficult to compute probabilities. (the closest I've seen is the Monte Carlo simulation posted by a geek on the WiFFE mailing list some months ago. But then again, it did not have any practical use)

This complexity might well be the rationale behind the system: make sure it stays a black box.

Daniel

[coregames]

It's interesting when the US enters the war before the USSR does. This tends to dump lower quality chits back into the pool and affects the probability in chit draws.

[coregames]

ORIGINAL: coregames

It's interesting when the US enters the war before the USSR does. This tends to dump lower quality chits back into the pool and affects the probability in chit draws.

I guess it works both ways, if the German and Russian garrison markers are returned to the pool before the US comes in.

[sw30]

For this analysis, why even bothering about chits?  Chits additions come after the modified garrison value  If you're doing statisitcal analysis, even with infinite pools, the German vs Russian expected average is exactly 2:1, therefore, they do not mathematically matter.

Do a search on the yahoo groups for this, I did an analysis earlier that covered roughly the same points, but came out a lot closer than you have it.  It's a lot riskier than you think it is.

Jeff

[composer99]

Why would they not matter? If the Germans do not have quite a 2:1 superiority in unit garrison value when they are trying to break the pact, there is always the possibility that they will manage, with a higher than average chit value, to make the cut.
 
By contrast, if the USSR has a higher average defensive chit value than Germany has an average offensive chit value, then it's a stuffed border.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: composer99

Why would they not matter? If the Germans do not have quite a 2:1 superiority in unit garrison value when they are trying to break the pact, there is always the possibility that they will manage, with a higher than average chit value, to make the cut.

By contrast, if the USSR has a higher average defensive chit value than Germany has an average offensive chit value, then it's a stuffed border.

I believe Jeff's point here was that if the chits are perfectly equal, then the calculation for stuffing the border might show it as a 'certainty'. While in reality, the variation in the chit values might give the Germans a (totally hypothetical number here) 40% chance of declaring war. Even if it were only 25%, that is a very high risk for the USSR to take given the consequences of the stuff failing.

[brian brian]

ORIGINAL: sw30

For this analysis, why even bothering about chits?  Chits additions come after the modified garrison value  If you're doing statisitcal analysis, even with infinite pools, the German vs Russian expected average is exactly 2:1, therefore, they do not mathematically matter.

excellent idea, thanks! I'll take another look.

ORIGINAL: sw30

Do a search on the yahoo groups for this, I did an analysis earlier that covered roughly the same points, but came out a lot closer than you have it.  It's a lot riskier than you think it is.

Jeff

how did it come out closer? The Russians could build 5 pilots right off the bat and delay their HQ-I's if they want a stronger garrison #. I think Harry wants it to be close and risky, but how much risk is present is difficult to determine.

[sw30]

ORIGINAL: composer99
Why would they not matter? If the Germans do not have quite a 2:1 superiority in unit garrison value when they are trying to break the pact, there is always the possibility that they will manage, with a higher than average chit value, to make the cut.

For the Analysis, it does not matter (unless you want to deliberately skew the results one way or the other.) During the game, it does.

ORIGINAL: brian brian
how did it come out closer? The Russians could build 5 pilots right off the bat and delay their HQ-I's if they want a stronger garrison #. I think Harry wants it to be close and risky, but how much risk is present is difficult to determine.

I don't actually remember if I posted my last analysis before I left the yahoo groups list. But I think the difference was that I did build 5 pilots. (I don't really care about pre-war Russian FTR2s anyways. LND2s FTW!) I also assumed that all HQs were built (can't imagine either attacking or defending a barbarossa without ALL HQs...) Don't remember what else was different. You can also get some BPs by limited breakdowns of Inf, I think that was much of the difference.

[ptey]

Great analysis, I dont agree with one of the initial premises though, namely that its not worth it for Russia to do anything else. Its imo well worth it for Russia to deploy on the manchurian border, to put some pressure on the japanese. This will take some pressure of China, by forcing Japan to deploy a fair amount of troops against a possible Soviet invasion. Russia dont even have to declare war to get the desired effect, and should Germany show that they want to do something else than barb in 41, Russia will be ready to exploit this by definently going to war with Japan.
If Japan dont take Russia seriously when Russia is starting the deployment against them, Russia should definently punish Japan. It shouldnt be problem to do this, and still have the army back in Europe to face Adolf in 41.
With that said, Russia should still maintain a garrison in Europe so Adolf wont be able to do a 40 Barb if France falls quickly.

If Russia do follow a stuff strategy. There is a good chance that Japan can kill China or atleast cripple her badly. At the same time Germany will have to choice of either also stuffing or just do something else in 41. If Germany decides to also stuff and manages to break the pact, the axis have most likely won the game - China is going to die and so is the Red Army. If Germany decides just to do something else than Barb in 41, Russia will have sat around doing nothing for the first 2½ years of the war. Meaning that chances are that China is dead or close to it and a good chunk of the mid-eastern oil is now axis controlled.

[brian brian]

I agree Ptey, I did say you don't need the garrison points from Asia until 1941, so you might as well use them for pressure on the Japanese.

I don't find China all that fragile though. With good defensive tactics (staying double stacked in the mountain line), Japan can't get the greatest of attacks and unless they roll really good each and every time their progress will be slow.

I didn't say stuffing is the only thing the USSR should do. I'm just saying it is a very viable choice for them. I have played the Russians and not crossed any international borders nor 'stuffed' the German border. I think that is a good strategy if you have confidence in your other two Allied teammates. But against a lackadaisical Axis that obviously has no other ideas than a Summer '41 Barbarossa, it can be quite a gain for the Allies. I do think it is best for the Russians not to be generating -9 and -17 US Entry chit hits though.

I looked at the numbers without chits and it still looks pretty good for the Russians. Given a static situation in the Balkans I just can't see the German economy generating enough garrison points against a Russian economy dedicated solely to creating them. That is because the Germans have to have a few bare minimums on the map in areas other than within three hexes of the Russians, and they are likely to lose at least a few corps along the way in 39-40. Of course if the CW is busy building the ultimate convoy lines ever with both Sunderlands and lots of new SCS and CV and nary an AMPH, MAR, or PARA, perhaps Germany can get away with no garrison in France.

[Zorachus99]

ORIGINAL: brian brian

I agree Ptey, I did say you don't need the garrison points from Asia until 1941, so you might as well use them for pressure on the Japanese.

I don't find China all that fragile though. With good defensive tactics (staying double stacked in the mountain line), Japan can't get the greatest of attacks and unless they roll really good each and every time their progress will be slow.

I didn't say stuffing is the only thing the USSR should do. I'm just saying it is a very viable choice for them. I have played the Russians and not crossed any international borders nor 'stuffed' the German border. I think that is a good strategy if you have confidence in your other two Allied teammates. But against a lackadaisical Axis that obviously has no other ideas than a Summer '41 Barbarossa, it can be quite a gain for the Allies. I do think it is best for the Russians not to be generating -9 and -17 US Entry chit hits though.

I looked at the numbers without chits and it still looks pretty good for the Russians. Given a static situation in the Balkans I just can't see the German economy generating enough garrison points against a Russian economy dedicated solely to creating them. That is because the Germans have to have a few bare minimums on the map in areas other than within three hexes of the Russians, and they are likely to lose at least a few corps along the way in 39-40. Of course if the CW is busy building the ultimate convoy lines ever with both Sunderlands and lots of new SCS and CV and nary an AMPH, MAR, or PARA, perhaps Germany can get away with no garrison in France.

If a partisan shows up in France, an allied player can simply air transport reinforcements onto it. Out of supply hexes can be invaded by SCS because they have 0 defense value.

No garrison is unfeasible IMO. I leave a scrub & wash force behind that can slow a large effort, and can stymie anything less.

[Froonp]

I would like to chime in to correct a few things I think are wrong by RAW7aug04 :

ORIGINAL: Zorachus99
If a partisan shows up in France, an allied player can simply air transport reinforcements onto it.

Not all that simple. Only Free French or French units cooperate with Free French PART in France, so CW or US units could not be air transported onto those PART.

Out of supply hexes can be invaded by SCS because they have 0 defense value.

Not all that simple neither. Now notional only have -1 if they cannot trace an infinite supply line. So basicaly what is needed is for the notional to be isolated, being out of supply is not enough anymore.

[composer99]

The point is that leaving a country with a 15 partisan value defenceless is asking for trouble, even if the Allies aren't up to invading in 1941.

[Froonp]

ORIGINAL: composer99
The point is that leaving a country with a 15 partisan value defenceless is asking for trouble, even if the Allies aren't up to invading in 1941.

Enormous problems.

[Zorachus99]

ORIGINAL: Froonp
Not all that simple neither. Now notional only have -1 if they cannot trace an infinite supply line. So basicaly what is needed is for the notional to be isolated, being out of supply is not enough anymore.

EH?

What's this? Did I miss some updated rule? OH MY GOD!!! AUUGGHHH!!!! NOOOOOOOOO.......

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Zorachus99

ORIGINAL: Froonp
Not all that simple neither. Now notional only have -1 if they cannot trace an infinite supply line. So basicaly what is needed is for the notional to be isolated, being out of supply is not enough anymore.

EH?

What's this? Did I miss some updated rule? OH MY GOD!!! AUUGGHHH!!!! NOOOOOOOOO.......

If you are losing your current WIF FE game-in-progress, this is an excellent reason for why you have to "start over". If you are ahead, don't mention it, and hope your opponent doesn't notice the error in how you have been playing the game.

[composer99]

I think the change to the notional rule is at least three years old... that said, given the sheer number of rules in the game, missing one or two is inevitable. Indeed, my fellow Allies insisted on stuffing the UK with Brazilians & Mexicans, even though they can't because we don't cooperate and they don't have any HQ's for foreign troop commitment.
 
We're banking on our opponents not noticing while we quietly extricate them.