jwilkerson(Jpn) Moses (Allies)

[jwilkerson]

1/20/43

Burma:

The long awaited advent of the Jack in Burma was not exactly an anti-climax, but we sure didn't "clear the skies". The real priority is clearing the rail line and then optimizing the deployment of the three new infantry divisions to hang on to Mytchina and Akyab as long as possible. Moses will need to commit another Corps to threaten real progress in Burma.

We now have (major units only) in Burma:

56 ID Akyab
56 IMB Akyab
21 IMB Akyab
55 ID/"A" Akyab
55 ID/"C" Akyab

5 ID Mytchina
33 ID Mytchina

4 IMB Lashio

20 ID Mandalay
22 IMB Mandalay
55 ID/"B" Mandalay

IG ID Arriving Rangoon
11 ID Ruyukus enroute

14 ID Andaman

[jwilkerson]

1/22/43

Burma:

Turn 2 of the Jacks saw a trend of reduction of bombing our troops and priority for Allied bombers switching back to airbases. That is fine, that is what our fighters in Burma are for. Distraction. So the Jacks will focus on defending our airbases. And we will now pull out some of the understrength Zero units to fill them up and train them up prior to conversion to Jacks.

One thing that is clear is that the 75 EXP Tony units are not much better than Nates when facing P-38 stiffened Wildcat sweeps. But these 75 EXP Tony units are very good at shooting down unescorted bombers, so we are staging another one forward to cover our troops.

The 20 ID and 22 IMB continue reduction of the Chindit on the Mandalay-Mytchina rail. The Chindit should be out of supply either already or soon. And that should help. Our transport planes flying out of Mandalay have been able to raise Mitchina's supply up to 15,000 and out of the orange. So the "blocade" has been effectively lifted by the aircraft.

A fast BB group, of three Kongos is approaching Rangoon. Once they arrive will we try a fast bombardment run at the Allied troops at Akyab.

[jwilkerson]

1/24/43


Burma:
Air losses were relatively light on both sides today - we lost about 44 and the Allies about 33, with most of ours being on the ground. The "big event" of the day from our perspective was the elimination of the Chindit unit that had been sitting on the Mandalay-Mytchina rail. This rail is now clear!!! The 20 ID will now relive some of the blocking forces on the road to Imphal and the IG ID is now heading for Akyab.
Also we have laid on a high speed BC bombardment run to Akyab. The Carriers will cover as will some landbased air from Rangoon.

The 11 ID is rounding Luzon heading for Rangoon.

CenPac.
After a supply run to Ndeni, we will probably pull the 16 ID out of Lunga and switch this unit to Wake. I'd like Wake to be pretty solid, to close down the Wake-Marcus-Bonin short cut route. And by this point holding the outer CENPAC areas is not worth much, let the Allies have them with the understanding that our carriers are lurking nearby and might show up.

Aleutians.
Another fuel convoy will arrive at Kiska this turn. Looks like the Americans are thinking about invading Adak, they have started clearing the minefields.

[jwilkerson]

1/26/43

Burma
Air losses even at 28 a piece. IJ mostly on the ground, Allies mostly in a2a.
The 3 Kongos hit the Allied LCU at Akyab, this turn we will follow up with three slow 14" BB on a surface sweep. We see a TF with 1 each BB, CA, DD ready to counterbombard Akyab.

Aleutians
Our carriers will surge forward this turn and cover cap Adak and "O" Island (one to the West of Adak). We hope to catch a few Allied planes "training". This is about the only kind of "ambush" the Japanese can launch.
Air dropped mines are keeping our minesweepers busy. We are reinforcing Kiska with 3 x MSW from Paramushiro.

CenPac
We will land supplies at Ndeni and try to bring off the BF there. Also we will cover movement of 16 ID to Wake. Then CenPac carriers will refit at Kwajalein.

[jwilkerson]

1/28/43

Burma:
In the air, things were fairly even. We killed more planes, but we lost a hurtful number of Jacks.
At Sea, our OBB group (Yamashiro, Isa, Hyuga) engaged an RN TF at Akyab in the first capital ship surface engagement of the war. In the surface action, we critically damaged the Valiant and a DD and a CA.
In follow up air strikes, the Hiyo Junyo group Kates, sank the DD Dewey, while Nells from Rangoon sank the Valiant.

[jwilkerson]

1/28/43

Production:

Here is a current view of the strategic resources view. Our economy is still running flat out. Accumulation of oil and resource is nil and accumulation of heavy industry is very slooooow. Hence we are using everything up as fast as it is arriving. Ultimately we will have to slow down the economy a bit to accelerate accumulation. For the last, roughly 25% of the war our access to resources, oil, heavy industry etc. will be reduced and we will eventually need to rely of the reserves to maximize the amount of time we are still "in the game". I'd like to accumulate at least a 6 month reserve by say mid-44. I was able to do this is a prior PBEM game, that is by Feb-44 I had a 6 month reserve of resources, oil and heavy industry. This potentially allowed supply generation (from HI) to continue for about 12 months.

[jwilkerson]

2/1/43

Air Losses:
Allies 95, Japanese 53.

Aleutians:
We had a gaggle of Barges that decided to attack the Allied fleet at Atka instead of returning to Kiska per orders. Our barges didn't do too well. The Hiryu/Soryu group are returning to Japan for refit, the Taiyo/Hosho/Unyo/Chuyo group are returning to the Aleutians after refit.

Burma:
Well, now it feels like we have too much fleet over here, so we will do one double bombardment run to Akyab this turn and then start shifting forces back to the Aleutians and CenPac. With the IG ID arriving at Akyab I think we can hold for awhile.

Cenpac:
Next op is to pull the 16 ID out of Lunga. It will take a few days to assemble the shipping at Rabaul. We still plan to rest the carriers at kwajalein once we get the 16 ID out.

[jwilkerson]

2/3/42

Air Losses: Allied/Japanese Total (32/47) with most of ours on ops or on the ground .. the air to air losses were Alled/Japanese (20/3)

Burma: Our double bombardment of Akyab went in, nothing spectacular, but hopefully we mostly got support and on board supply which will reduce combat effectiveness.

Aleutians: Our biggest issue right now is those darned Coronados with the 10x500LB bombs on constant naval search. They keep dinging ships left and right. We are beefing up our CAP over KISKA in the hopes of reducing the "stealth" terror bomber's effectiveness.

The reports on the double-bombardment of Akyab appear below.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Naval bombardment of Akyab, at 30,29

Japanese Ships
DD Kiji
DD Hato
DD Karukaya
DD Asagao
DD Kuretake
DD Hasu
DD Yakaze
DD Murakumo
DD Hatsuyuki
DD Arashi
DD Nowaki
DD Urakaze
DD Tokitsukaze
DD Amatsukaze
CL Tenryu
CL Kuma
CL Isuzu
CL Jintsu
CA Ashigara
CA Haguro
CA Myoko
CA Maya
CA Atago
BB Musashi
BB Mutsu


Allied ground losses:
595 casualties reported
Guns lost 14
Vehicles lost 12

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Naval bombardment of Akyab, at 30,29

Japanese Ships
DD Tsuga
DD Namikaze
DD Hibiki
DD Ariake
DD Shiranuhi
DD Yukikaze
BB Hiei
BB Haruna
BB Kongo


Allied ground losses:
201 casualties reported
Guns lost 4
Vehicles lost 8

[DuckofTindalos]

What sort of kill ratios are you getting out of the Jack Daitais?

[jwilkerson]

Well, its all very complicated ...
[:D]

For the first few days, the 4x27 Plane Jack units were engaging very heavily over Akyab and Mytchina. After that, the Jacks have focused on covering the "support" bases, Mandalay, Pagan and Lashio, allowing the Tony's, Tojo's and Zeros to take the brunt of the fighting over Akyab and Mytchina. Also, when the Jack's have engaged it has been in conjunction with the other types, not solo.

Overall air-to-air ratios have slightly improved since the Jacks arrived. Also, for the six months prior to the arrival of the Jacks, the overall aircraft loss gap between the allies and the Japanese has hovered between +200 to +300 in favor of the Japanese. With the advent of the Jacks, this gap has slowly increased to the current +400. And I think the "behavior" of the Allied attacks has altered a bit.

The bulk of the Allied bombers in CBI are focusing on Akyab now. On our part, we are offering a moderate defense (parts of two air units per turn) over Akyab, but basing the fighters at Pagan. The Allies are also sweeping Mytchina, but not bombing heavily. The Allies have not challenged the support bases, containing the Jacks (Pagan{22 Jacks}, Mandalay{24 Jacks}, Lashio{14+15 Jacks}). This is the major behavior change. So, we kind of just have a new flavor of stalemate, with us having a tiny advantage as manifested by the slightly climbing loss gap in our favor. However, we expect this small advantage to shift back the other way once the Corsairs arrive. The USN have been operating large numbers of Wildcats over North Burma and we expect these to be the first air units to convert over to the Corsairs. That will probably shift the advantage back towards the Allies.

But we are bringing in more and more large LCU to Burma and hope to be able to hold more many more months. Akyab and Mytchina are the primary points of contest. The Brits did send three Chindit units down the central trails towards Manday but we cut one of these off and destroyed it and we send a second one packing. We will need to protect these trails, because they can cut off Mytchina. So this is the third area of vulnerability. But we currently have more troops on the ground in Burma than the Allies have right in front of us. It will take several more divisions at either Akyab or Mytchina to enable them to attack.

[jwilkerson]

2/3/43


Strategy:

With all the Allied airpower in NE India, we think our greatest vulnerability is in Burma. If the Allies were to crack our lines here, then they could rapidly achieve a position where much of the SRA would be under 4EB range and this would shut down these resource centers thus decreasing our economy by a significant fraction. We are also vulnerable in China, but Moses seems to either feel that he cannot bring enough supply in to support an offensive or he is just pulling his punch, we can't be sure.

In the Aleutians we are next most vulnerable, because we can never have enough bases in the North to stop an Allied offensive. Yet lack of 4EB and P-38 up here seems to indicate that at least for the moment, Moses is not looking for this to be a primary attack route.

In CENPAC we can afford to trade space for time and so here we will begin significant strategic withdrawals of LCU. We will essentially refuse our right (as if we are sitting in Japan) but hold on to the Wake/Marcus/ Bonin axis if possible. The relived troops will go to Burma/Summatra/Thailand etc. Basically covering the SRA. We are also slowly buildling up in the Spice islands (between Timor and Java) as there will come a day when Moses kicks us out of Northern Oz. But we will give up the Marshall, Giilberts, Solomons and Papua though we will keep Betty's zeros and a small fleet around to at least prevent "freebees".

===

At this point we actually expect the game to be decided in Burma, and or the Gulf of Martaban and or Sumatra, so we will place maximum emphasis on strengthening those areas.

[jwilkerson]

2/5/43


Air Losses:

Total Losses (Allied/Japanese) 59/36

Air to Air Losses (Allied/Japanese) 42/19

Naval Changes:

We will withdraw many ships from the Western Fleet. What will remain are the Junyo/Hiyo group and the Fuso/Yamashiro group. Everything else will go to CenPac or Aleutians. Once the Allies reach the point where they can attack at Akyab we may return more fast bombardment ships to the Western Fleet, but at this point, the risk reward just doesn't seem to be there.

Major LCU Movements:

The 11 ID will be arriving at Bangkok shortly and will deploy to Mandalay in readiness to block any further British attempts to attack down the trails. We are still marshalling shipping to pull the 16 ID out of Lunga, should be a few more days.

[ctangus]

ORIGINAL: jwilkerson
Cenpac:
Next op is to pull the 16 ID out of Lunga. It will take a few days to assemble the shipping at Rabaul. We still plan to rest the carriers at kwajalein once we get the 16 ID out.

I'm curious why you did that. What do you have left defending Lunga?

I'm trying to keep allied fighters as far away from me as possible. Even if I lose an LCU or five I want to keep the allies from establishing a strong position in either the Solomons or PNG for as long as possible. Once they have that they can slowly, but inevitably, roll up those bases.

Thanks for the AAR BTW - I've been using things that I've been learning here.

[jwilkerson]

ORIGINAL: ctangus

ORIGINAL: jwilkerson
[Cenpac:
Next op is to pull the 16 ID out of Lunga. It will take a few days to assemble the shipping at Rabaul. We still plan to rest the carriers at kwajalein once we get the 16 ID out.

I'm curious why you did that. What do you have left defending Lunga?

I'm trying to keep allied fighters as far away from me as possible. Even if I lose an LCU or five I want to keep the allies from establishing a strong position in either the Solomons or PNG for as long as possible. Once they have that they can slowly, but inevitably, roll up those bases.

Thanks for the AAR BTW - I've been using things that I've been learning here.

Well I haven't done it yet - just getting ready to. But the reason is - I now think there will be a more valuable place to lose the 16 ID. At this point I consider everything East of a line running from about Hollandia to Truk and to Eniwetok, to be expendable. These areas are far, far away from the SRA. And it will take Moses much longer to crunch through here than it will for him to push his way through Burma.

I'll leave token forces here and there in the SE PAC area and fly my Betty's around to look threatening ... and keep a few subs out there for him to sink ... and even show a carrier or so every now and then. Just enough to prevent "freebees". Well hopefully anyway.

[jwilkerson]

2/7/43


Air Losses:

Total Losses (Allied/Japanese): 46/22

Air to Air Losses (Allied/Japanese): 29/15

Not much to report otherwise, though we do see enemy shipping piling up at Espiritu Santos. Possible invasion of Ndeni comming. We will allow this invasion to go in with minimal interference. We do have a few subs in the area. And we will use the opportunity to pull the 16 ID out of Lunga.

[jwilkerson]

2/9/43


Air Losses
(Total:Allied/Japanese, AirToAir:Allied/Japanese)
63/60, 44/25

CenPac
The Allied invasion of Ndeni has begun. Betty's based at Lunga tapped on a couple of cruisers at Espiritu Santos and our subs sank an AK running interference around Ndeni. Otherwise our transports are moving into position for the evac of 16 ID from Lunga. We staged forward a few more fighters to Lunga to help cover the loading of the transports. The CenPac carriers moved forward to a position 1 hex (map) NE of Tulagi.

Aleutians
We also now see BBs at Atka, so this may mean the Amis are going to try something up there. The Taiyo, Hosho, Chuyo, Unyo group, with the Nagato arrives this turn to join the Akagi/Kaga group with the Yamato at Kiska.

Burma
The Allies tried their hand at bombing of Pagan this turn, losses were moderately heavy on both sides, but the base was undamaged at the end of the turn.

[jwilkerson]

2/11/43

Air Losses:
Total(allied/japanese): 73/54
AirToAir(allied/japanese): 51/32

CenPac:
Ndeni falls to a-zillion to one odds attack. Subs and Betty's ding a few ships. CenPac carriers lurk North of Tulagi covering loading of 16 ID at Lunga. Fleet support and construction troops are loaded and heading to Truk. 16 ID will be loaded and heading out next turn. Then the CenPac carriers will head to Kwaj to refit.

Burma:
Advent of the Corsairs over Akyab! They shoot down one Tony, we shoot down one Corsair. [>:]

Aleutians:
No movement on the Allied side. We will sortie the fleet from Kiska in a couple of turns to see what is up.

[jwilkerson]

Capital Ship Deployments Feb 1943

Aleutians
Akagi, Kaga, Yamato Group
Hosho, Taiyo, Chuyo, Unyo, Nagato Group

CenPac
Shokaku, Zuikaku Group
Ryujo, Shoho, Zuiho, Ryuho Group

Western Fleet
Musashi, Mutsu Group (enroute back to home islands)
Kongo, Hiei, Haruna Group (enroute back to home islands)
Ise, Hyuga Group (enroute back to home islands)
Junyo, Hiyo, Fuso, Yamashiro Group (at Rangoon)

Home Islands
Hiryu, Soryu, Kirishima Group (refitting)

[jwilkerson]

2/13/43


Air Combat:
Total Losses (Allied/Japanese): 40/70
Air To Air Losses (Allied/Japanese): 23/35
Hey - the Allies finally won a day in the air war! During the last six months of 1942 they would win and day then we would win a day. But for some reason, for the past couple of weeks, I'm not they've even won one day. But finally they did. Our Betties continued suiciding themselves in max range unescorted attacks against heavily defended targets, instead of flying escorted strikes against closer less heavily defended targets, around Ndeni. And in Burma only one Tony group came up and they got hammered by piles of Corsairs and P-38s. Somedays you're the windshield and somedays you're the bug.


CenPac: The 16 ID has been extracted and is headed NW to its new home. The CenPac carriers are headed back for refit.

Aleutians: Our carriers are sortie-ing this turn to see what is up.

Burma: The IG ID continues its march towards Akyab. Our fighters continue to fight the fight.

[jwilkerson]

2/15/43

Air:
Total Losses(Allied/Japanese): 18/23
AirToAir Losses(Allied/Japanese): 5/12

Another Allied victory day - though at a low level of activity.

Burma:
Most of our fighters did not fly today - but hopefully things will improve tommorrow. We just moved 3rd Air Div HQ to Pagan and he apparently incremented the supply requirement up over the level on hand - so this is probably why not much flew. This should get fixed asap. We have two 75 EXP Tony units preparing to enter the fray, though these days they seem about as useful as Nates in the air battles. The "Giant" of yesterday is the "Mouse" of today.
The 11 ID has arrived and will proceed to Akyab. The IG ID should arrive at Akyab in a day or so. Then we will pull out the RCT of the 55 ID back to Rangoon to rebuild and join up with its other two RCT and reform the full division. This division will then be the Burma reserve.

CenPac:
The Carriers will actually return to Japan as several are due for upgrade.
The 16 ID is heading West, we're still cogitating on where to send this unit. Burma will be the default. Can't have too many troops in Burma right now.

Aleutians:
Our carriers sortied but no Allied air units hit them. The Americans are appaarently smart enough not to strike at over 3 hex range. And we're smart enough not to close within that range. So stalemate. We expect the Americans to try to land either at Adak or Ogi soon. One day they will be able to drive our fighters away from Attu/Kiska and that will spell the beginning of the end for our positions in the Aleutians. But for now we are still holding on.