Is odds calculator updated?

[BoerWar]

I'm playing mostly UV2.0 and version 1.011 games and it seems like the odds calculator is getting a little less reliable. Maybe it is just statistics and my imagination catching up with me, but it led me to wonder if the odds calculator is being updated when tweaks have been made to the combat system. I can understand if you haven't been able to devote the resources to it, but I just want to adjust my confidence in the odds calculator accordingly.

Thanks,
Boerwar

[WanderingHead]

It should be OK.

The odds calculator actually works by running 100 practice combats and taking the average. The same routines are called in both cases, so the same modifiers and rules will be applied. The only difference is that for the practice combats a different random generator is used (so that the die rolls for the actualy combat aren't changed, since die rolls are fixed at beginning of turn for some PBEM security), no permanent states get changed (like a hit unit doesn't actually get damaged), and none of the bombat logging is done.

I looked over the code, and it looks OK to me.

[MrQuiet]

I didnt know the caluculator worked that way.
To me it usually seemed like it did not take some factors into account like winter, first rus winter,  Out of supply, ship bombardment, suprise attack, 66% chance of not fireing, etc..
 
I adjust for those in my head and hope for the best.

[BoerWar]

Good to know. We must've just gotten a few outliers.

Thanks,
Boerwar

[WanderingHead]

ORIGINAL: MrQuiet
I didnt know the caluculator worked that way.
To me it usually seemed like it did not take some factors into account like winter, first rus winter,  Out of supply, ship bombardment, suprise attack, 66% chance of not fireing, etc..

To be clear, it is not perfect. I think that originally it might have worked as you guessed. Jan put in the update, and I think it was hard to retrofit in a perfect way, so that little discrepancies can exist that are hard to track down.

I see one line of code that does something different about "in-supply" when it is a practice run versus the actual combat, so you might be correct. I could imagine this being because consuming the supply and making the units "in-supply" would be an irrevocable change of their status, so that the practice engine just assumes everything is in supply.

But the suppression combat mods that Lebatron put in UV2.0 look to be handled cleanly to me.

[WanderingHead]

ORIGINAL: WanderingHead
I see one line of code that does something different about "in-supply" when it is a practice run versus the actual combat,

Actually, I look over it and I think this line is exactly trying to take care of what I mentioned. It simply sets everything in the region in supply if there is supply nearby. So it should work 95% of the time, the only oddity actually would be that units that are left in supply from the prior turn but cannot access supply this turn might be mistakenly set out of supply for practice runs.