The Churchill plan

[SteveD64]

The timely entry of Italy looks crucial to the TE. [:)]

Also, that is one wild plan.

[ulver]

Strategic situation going into the summer of 1915.

Well, I’m still confident of victory but it looks like a much harder struggle then I expected at new years time. My hat of to my opponent Raynald for confounding my expectations at every turn.

His strategy of striking in every direction at once is the perfect opposite to the one I would have employed. The obvious risk to the Central Powers is that he dilutes his main thrust ending up with offensives that sees plenty of killings but fails to deliver the killing blow against either France or Russia. To win the war, not necessarily the game but the war, my assumption was always that he basically needed to drive for Paris or Petrograd and my planning was predicated on throwing everything into stopping the decisive thrust once I had dealt with the Ottomans thereby ensuring the slow strangulation of the Central Powers

However he is refusing to play to my rulebook and his unexpected strategy is turning out to have great benefits. By striking everywhere he keeps me off balance and confused, uncertain which sectors, or indeed fronts to reinforce.

I honestly don’t know where he is putting his main effort since he renewed the offensive in the West just as I expected him to transfer his HQ’s to the east for a push deep into the Russian heartland.

Just as I moved the bulk of my forces to the North of France for a possible counterattack to secure a bit of breathing space in front of Paris he launches a devastating offensive in the South completely splintering the front.

Just I was about to sail my forces home from the Middle East to France the Austrian navy sorties making such transports impossible, incidentally explaining why the Anglo-French forces involved in operation Churchill was instead railed to Eastern Poland.

There presence there giving raise to the following email comments:

“British troops reported in Beliorussia. The high command decide to stop the supply of schnaps for the east front”

- and in a later email:

“French are now reported in Beliorussia. Looks like local vodka has replaced schnaps for the ost sheer.”

I was also impressed by his stubborn refusal to allowed British landing behind his lines in France to distract him the least bit from his operational plans – personally I would likely have called my offensive to a screeching halt in order to encircle and destroy the bridgeheads lest the entire BEF lands behind my lines and moves to cut my forces in Northern France. I love to land cavalry divisions here there and everywhere to distract my opponent but he couldn’t care less.

In short, apart from the Ottoman front he has very much had me dancing to his tune, reacting to his moves, fighting his war – not mine. However it is now the summer of 1915 and the BEF is finally arriving in force and I’m fiercely determined to use it to launch a concentrated counterattack somewhere

Also I take a great deal of comfort from these hard cold facts: Time is working for me, not him. My production potential vastly outstrips his. The Italians are about to enter the war and over the horizon are the Americans.

His encirclement of virtually the entire Russian cavalry force in Poland was a brilliant feat of arms but it does not directly threaten the survival of Russia. The same is true of his drive into Southern France.

[Raynald]

Hi all,
 
[font="times new roman"]As I wrote to Ulved, I’m not particulary happy about my strategy so far. The truth is I regretted both my original plan and set-up very early in August (a limited Schlieffen in the west, a strong offensive in Serbia – but not a Serbia gamble - and a reasonnable defense in the east; not looking for a KO in summer 14 but gaining a good position to go east, west or south after the early battles). This was aggravated by the Entente opening (a very strong offensive against the Ottoman). [/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]My plan then became to beat both the French and Russian armies (by beating I mean reducing their morale so that A become B, etc), especially by taking advantage of the weakness of the Russian position before it is too late AND  try to secure a strong economic position in France (to compensate for the inevitable fall of the OE).[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]This has been accomplished well enough, but it might not lead the CP anywhere close to a victory.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]The worrying points are :[/font]
[font="times new roman"]1/ the growing British army[/font]
[font="times new roman"]2/ the possibility for the Entente to feed the Russian economy at will with BP[/font]
[font="times new roman"]3/ the entry of Italy in the war in a couple of month[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]The bright points are :[/font]
[font="times new roman"]1/ France looks like really weakened (both economically and military) and it should remain for a time under the threat of a powerfull offensive that could kill her.[/font]
[font="times new roman"]2/ a lot of ground has been taken in the east at a reasonably low cost[/font]
[font="times new roman"]3/ both CP armies are in far better shape than the Russian and French army (at least I hope so).[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]As a whole, I’m still confident… and eagerly await every day the couple of turns we play in the evening ![/font]
 

[SteveD64]

Did the Entente declare war on Turkey?  If so, what effect has that had on neutrals?  Is Italy a long way off in joining?  Is Bulgaria closer to joing the CP?

[Raynald]

ORIGINAL: CLEVELAND

Did the Entente declare war on Turkey?  If so, what effect has that had on neutrals?  Is Italy a long way off in joining?  Is Bulgaria closer to joing the CP?

Yes the Entente declared war on Turkey, with no visible effect on anybody. And it was prior the official 1.10, so the Turks had no way to react. Worse, I noticed Turkey was under attack only after the beginning of the Russian offensive and the first British landing(the game didn't warn me and I just didn't look in this area of the map [8|]).

Italy is very close to war.

Bulgaria has just joined the CP.

[ulver]

Yes I was rather surprised over the total lack of reaction on the part of neutrals to the Entente DoW on the Ottomans.

Although surely you got notification that the Ottomans joined the CP side? When I tested it in a hot seat game against myself I did

Also there must have been a whole string of notifications during the first turn about cities in the Middle East being lost to the British landings?

I also look forward to the few turns we manage to play every night – perhaps we should make some sort of effort to synchronise our play better?

[ulver]

Although the ability to transfer productions to the Russians is nice the ability to transfer grain is much more important. Given the amount of farmland captured by the Central Powers so far with the prospect of them capturing more Russia is already now dependent on British grain shipments to avoid starvation. They have a net shortfall of 3 grains pr turn so the British grain convoys to the Black sea is crucial to preventing the revolution. Unless the German U-boats can strangle British shipping there will be no starvation in this version of events making Russia much harder to throttle into surrender.

I actually think this is a very realistic aspect of the simulation – had the Western allies been able to supply to Russians with food there is a very good chance the revolution could have been avoided.

In the end-game where everyone is getting desperately short of manpower transferring production to build Russian infantry instead of ridiculously expensive tanks may well be a significant bonus but for now the Allies are likely to make far better use of the production themselves. If they want to support the Russians they are probable better off building their own units and shipping them to the Eastern front.

Although for now the traffic is more likely to be the other way since France is far more under threat the Russia is. While still holding Paris her morale is wavering meaning she is a goner if she loses it. The loss of her industry in Lyon is a real blow at this stage and her losses of resources in Northern France will significantly reduce her production long term as France is now reduced to producing just one resource domestically pr turn. British-French shipping have no trouble making up the shortfall at this stage especially given the boost Britain gained from conquering the Middle East. Something that will undoubtedly change as her war economy swings into gear and her appetite for resources increases but right now she has to survive the short term for me to worry about the long term.

On the bright side neither the French nor the Russian Army is anywhere close to being beaten in the sense Raynald mean with losses all round actually being quite light compared to historically and an awful lot of CP shelling hitting empty or abandoned positions.

On the other hand I fear a lot of Russian shelling are hitting a German cavalry screen in East Prussia – I keep meaning to launch a probing attack with my cavalry to find out but my cavalry seem to have gone missing.

Enough talk now – where is this evenings move?

[Raynald]

Although surely you got notification that the Ottomans joined the CP side? When I tested it in a hot seat game against myself I did

You must be right but I don't recall it.

Also there must have been a whole string of notifications during the first turn about cities in the Middle East being lost to the British landings?

Oops, that's the effect schnaps and vodka have on my memory [;)].

The one activation I lost meant the Ottoman couldn't escape the Russians though. I would not have make a big difference anyway. It is not even sure I would have ran !

[FrankHunter]

Just out of curiousity, why are you guys using 1.0 instead of 1.1 being as it doesn't affect PBEM games?

[ulver]

ORIGINAL: FrankHunter

Just out of curiousity, why are you guys using 1.0 instead of 1.1 being as it doesn't affect PBEM games?

It wasn’t released when we began the game. We have both since upgraded to it.

[ulver]

The great Entente counteroffensive launches with massive artillery bombardments and over a million men going over the top. With the France surging northward from Paris and the entire BEF breaking out from their bridgeheads in Dunkirk and Antwerp confidence is high that we shall soon clear Northern France.

It is a bloodbath – Anglo-French losses are staggering without an inch of ground being gained anywhere. This is my battle of the Somme, throwing away lives and material to no avail

It takes awhile for the true magnitude of the disaster to sink in. A staggering loss of 208 strength point infliction only 136 in central power losses. My offensive have been utterly and comprehensively defeated




The British bridgeheads have linked up and ready to launch a pincer movement with the French liberating Northern France and Belgium.

[ulver]

A total and unmitigated disaster. This is the first time since the outbreak of war I’m hit by the sickening realisation that it is possible I may lose the war. Not just the game but the war.

The psychological blow is aggravated by the giddy optimism prior to launching the offensive. I was so sure I was going to sweep them out of Northern France. Instead the allies have essentially been broken as an offensive force until 1916.

Is this a good simulation or what? It even manages to recreate a hopelessly optimistic mindset to be dashed by the grim reality of mud, rat infested trenches and the futility of infantry assault against entrenched machine guns.

Now I should stress that the the Entente armies are by no means broken. Only about half the BEF on the Western front and a fairly small fraction of the French army was committed to the attack. Supplies of both arms and shells are reasonable good, critical sectors of the front are both well entrenched and adequately garrisoned, the entente air force is more then holding its own and I think I called off the offensive in time to avoid inflicting a deathblow on myself. Nevertheless I just demonstrated my complete impotence and inability to take the offensive and the initiative now rest firmly with the Central Powers.

It remains to be seen if I have weakened myself enough for the Kaiser to order massive wave attacks of his own and if so if German valour can succeed where Allied planning failed.

Time to abandon dreams of a breakthrough and start digging in




Complete and utter humiliation. Note from Berlin: LOSER!!!!!

[ulver]

After my disaster I frantically dig in while I wait for ships to evacuate me from Dunkirk. In the heated atmosphere of London there is grave concern that the entire British force in Northern France will be driven in the sea and eliminated. Notwithstanding that having to evacuate the BEF from Dunkirk could be taken as a bad portent for France, getting away ends up being surprisingly easy.

Twice the Germans attack the entrenched city and twice they are repulsed: Nice having the entrenchment work for me for a chance. Eventually he just gives up, contenting himself with shelling the city until the BEF is fully evacuated.

In an odd twist he then decline even bothering to re-take the hex: Guess that is just his way of saying he isn’t too worried

The BEF are transported out and re-landed in France using Cherbourg with The Anglo-French forces concentrated around Paris expecting him to make the final decisive push to knock France out of the war.

As usual he does the opposite of what I expect – launching a major puch into Southen France. I desperately fall back calling on the just-joined Italians to help me bolster the line.





Sep/oct 1915 - Under pressure in southern France

[ulver]

I was absolutely confident that the decisive blow would fall in the West you see. The East front is solid and Russian morale is sky high. France was in danger, Russia was not. Or so I thought. Events would prove – once again - just how wrong my assumptions were as he was about to embark on a stunningly successful Eastern strategy that would doom Russia while I, fiercely determined not to repeat the mistake of a suicidal offensive, would attempt two counterstrokes – one being a dismal failure while the other just might turn out to be a formula for success.



Sep/Oct 1915 – an impregnable defence. At least I won’t have to worry about the Russians. Also note the heroes of Warsaw holding out for half a year.

[ulver]

So confident was I of the Russian position I had no problem dispatching an A class unit left over from the conquest of the Ottomans to work as a trench digger in the last remaining Serbian city. For some strange reason he stopped the offensive just before capturing it and I wanted to keep them in so I could use the HQ activations elsewhere. As it turned out they will end up playing an important role liberating their homeland.





Autumn 1915 - Russian elite troops from Anatolia despatch to Scutari on digging duty.

[SMK-at-work]

Great AAR guys - keep it up!
 
As an aside....if you're using MS paint to do the screen shots you can get rid of the excess white border by resizing the picture before you save it - click in the white and you should get little blue drag buttons on each side that yuo can pull in to encompass just the picture.

[ulver]

After my disasters in Northern France I expected it would be the Central powers that would go looking for new fronts to expand the war exposing my thinly stretched lines. I, on the other hand, was desperate to shut them down. The Italian front is a good example on how digging in is so much easier when no one is bothering you. The digging in would continue until everyone had level 4 entrenchments along the entire front allowing me to dispatch most of the Italian army for service elsewhere – I felt I really needed them in France.




Autumn 1915: Italy enters the war for the purposes of implementing their brilliant “victory through digging” strategy. It turns into a smashing success with the most impressive trenches of the entire war. Straight, artistically pleasing and so much prettier with no fighting to scar the landscape. Not a single shell will be fired here for over a year.

[ulver]

As a matter of fact the gravest blow against the Entente would fall in the one place I was absolutely confident my position was unassailable: Russia.

I was unaware that a defeated Ottoman empire was unable to defend its neutrality and thus simply redeployed my forces away. To the Eastern front by land, to the Western front by sea, even to the last Serbian stronghold hoping to utilise their HQ’s.

So, the sneaky Central Powers simply walk the Bulgarians into Constantinople taking control of the Hex after the Ottoman Empire surrendered.

That dastardly plot sort of wrecked the whole point of me knocking out the Ottomans and is a death sentence for Russia. Without British grain supplies Russia is basically going to stave into revolution. This is fully expected although it would turn out to be less critical then I though with the Russian Baltic fleet intermittently managing to open up the Baltic sea for grain shipments.

The real, and completely unexpected, disaster is a total and utter collapse of the Russian supply net.

Take a look at this screenshot of the Central Powers launching their deathblow against Russia and check the readiness of Russian units. Having below 10% supply in the entire country will do that to you. There was never any chance of mounting a defence with no supply to my army.

[hjaco]

Yeah - happened to me in a game against "King Nana" too.

Kind of hard fighting a war under those conditions.

Sadly it did not changed after a years game time so i think you have to lay your game dormant for a while and get Frank to look at the save file.

It apparently starts in the winter with Russian supply beginning to drop and keep dropping.

[ulver]

Needless to say I was frantic to somehow restore communication with Russia, hoping this would relieve the disastrous supply situation on the Eastern front. Ordering my forces to move across Anatolia proved a costly mistake as they staved to Death. An India corps ended on 0 readiness in a 1% supply hex and had to be disbanded as it was unable to move at all.



Worse was to come. As I finally approached Constantinople I found supply dropping to well below 10% and in the end even the use of offensive points did not allow me to move into hexes adjacent to the City on the Asian side. With the troops nearing mutiny the whole project was yet another disaster.