Blockade +Jutland?

[Shawkhan]

...If I remember my military history correctly, Germany was almost self-sufficient in food(if you liked beets, cabbage and potatoes), but they depended upon their Nitrogen production for both fertilizer(absolutely vital in Germany's poor soil) and munitions. It was a tight balancing act until 1918 when Ludendorf appropriated almost all nitrogen production for munitions to carry out the Kaiserschlacht. The result was a failed crop for 1918, then starvation, demoralization and eventual collapse.

[SMK-at-work]

A few things here.....
 
Walloc it looks like both Austria and German scored their 1/3rd chance of getting a food from their captured resource.  That's what is suppsoed to happen - they should get 0 from it 2/3rds of the time.  It is possible to get 3 food in a turn from only 3 captured resources - but somewhat unlikely - jsut as it is possible to get 0 food from 12!
 
I'm not sure why Germany is getting 8 production in your case.......it only gets 7 in mine, which I did look up at hte time - perhaps they get some increase built in in 1915??[&:]
 
James I'm pretty sure that missing 1 food gives more than 1% drop in morale.  However whatever the figure is, morale drops from all causes will add up over the war, and their effect will be felt at the end - that is hte nature of cumulative penalties - You expect Germany to drop to exhausted some tiem in 1917/18.
 
IIRC a transport can bring in 3-4 food per turn doesn't it?  Certainly the UK gets more than 7 for its 7 transports in the Atlantic so I'd expect Germany to get the same.  So if Germany can break the blockade it will be able to build up a food surplus!
 
Nitrogen remained a problem for German agriculture in WW2 too - for hte same reasons - it was needed for miltary explosives - they were short of it for all purposes by late 1944.  Oil was also a problem for agriculture in WW2 - its demand for oil increased as horses were used up by the military!!

[FrankHunter]

Interesting reading.

There's an excellent book on the subject by the name of "Victory must be ours" by Laurence Moyer, which is what I used as my source to get a feel for Germany's domestic food and morale issues during the war.

Anyway, I'll change the way captured food is done.  I'll modify it slightly to 1 per 2 captured but allow captured food to be "used up".  So that captured food won't join the economy, it'll instead be more of a pillaging sort of thing where you exhaust the area of whatever it can supply until its gone.

This will also apply to food that is gained through surrendered territory.

[James Ward]

ORIGINAL: Joel Rauber

ORIGINAL: James Ward


Perhaps that is what is shown. I don't recall reading of widespread food shortages in Germany in 1915 though.
While it is possible to get German transports into the North Atlantic and get food in trade in practice it is impossible even at the start of the war. Germany can 'blockade' the UK with U-boats and force the UK to surrender regardless of how the land war is going but the TE really can't force Germany into the same situation which seems odd. Perhaps putting the North Sea as a trade zone for Germany to receive food via instead of the North Atlantic would make the blockade more meaningful and something to actually pursue.

The UK was much more reliant on food imports in RL than Germany was. Whether or not the relative reliance is being simulated correctly is another matter. But I think that the fact that the UK is more easily brought to its knees from blockade is accurate.

I agree with you. Maybe it would just be one of those nice touches if both sides had to actively pursue a blockade strategy.

[Walloc]

ORIGINAL: SMK-at-work

Walloc it looks like both Austria and German scored their 1/3rd chance of getting a food from their captured resource.  That's what is suppsoed to happen - they should get 0 from it 2/3rds of the time.  It is possible to get 3 food in a turn from only 3 captured resources - but somewhat unlikely - jsut as it is possible to get 0 food from 12!

Just ran some tests. Doing the turn pre my example and seeing how lucky i get since getting 2 times 1/3 should only happen every 9 turn.
Disclamer unless rolls some how are pre determained which i naturally cant check.
Then some thing is up. Im get 2 every time. Time to check on my RNG hamsters again.

I'm not sure why Germany is getting 8 production in your case.......it only gets 7 in mine, which I did look up at hte time - perhaps they get some increase built in in 1915??[&:]

U havent heard of the great landbuild of 1915?? [:D]
Joke a side, could the belgain food resource be counting as 1 full after Belgian surrender?


Kind regards,

Rasmus

[James Ward]

ORIGINAL: SMK-at-work

James I'm pretty sure that missing 1 food gives more than 1% drop in morale.  However whatever the figure is, morale drops from all causes will add up over the war, and their effect will be felt at the end - that is hte nature of cumulative penalties - You expect Germany to drop to exhausted some tiem in 1917/18.

IIRC a transport can bring in 3-4 food per turn doesn't it?  Certainly the UK gets more than 7 for its 7 transports in the Atlantic so I'd expect Germany to get the same.  So if Germany can break the blockade it will be able to build up a food surplus!

I was under the impression that ech food missing gave a 1% drop. Perhaps I'm mistaken. Doesn't the new patch provide a breakdown of what is causing morale loss? That would clear it up. 1% per turn isn't going to cost you the war, even if you lose it for the whole game. Even 3% per turn wouldn't lose it by itself but it would be harder to take.
If you look at the map when the war ended Germany would only suffer morale losses for ship and military losses.

As far as transports I always get 2 food per transport for the TE. Maybe it's different for Germany. I've never had much luck getting their transports into the Atlantic.

[FrankHunter]

ust ran some tests. Doing the turn pre my example and seeing how lucky i get since getting 2 times 1/3 should only happen every 9 turn

Its only random when there's fractions.  So if you had 8 captured food you would get 2 plus a 2/3 chance of getting a third.

Joke a side, could the belgain food resource be counting as 1 full after Belgian surrender?

Yes

I was under the impression that ech food missing gave a 1% drop

Its a loss of 1 point, not 1%. 

Doesn't the new patch provide a breakdown of what is causing morale loss?

Yes, on the victory screen click the nation's name

[Walloc]

ORIGINAL: FrankHunter

ust ran some tests. Doing the turn pre my example and seeing how lucky i get since getting 2 times 1/3 should only happen every 9 turn

Its only random when there's fractions.  So if you had 8 captured food you would get 2 plus a 2/3 chance of getting a third.

As per picture higher above. I only had 2 captured food resources in all. 1 for each of germany and AH. That said the AH one was in Serbia. There it gets to be a bit tricky cuz of the territory that serbia gives after the surrender doesnt include the food resource, but i still have ownership of the hex since, ownership doesnt seem to revert back after a surrender.
3rd being the belgian that is explained in why German has a base of 8 not 7.

Kind regards,

Rasmus

[Walloc]

I can see how the german screen says 8/4 for captured food.
It makes no sense at all tho. Only food resources that is CP owned they didnt start with is:
1 in Serbiam AH owned.
1 in Belgium, which has surrendered, as i understand it raising the german base from 7 to 8.
1 in France hex. 10,15

Pic included of France area. As u should be able to see from overview picture higher in thread i have advanced no where else and there for taken no other food resources.

Kind regards,

Rasmus

[FrankHunter]

Doesn't your national status screen up above say 1/0 for captured?

The only 8/4 I see is for raw materials

[SMK-at-work]

ORIGINAL: FrankHunter
Anyway, I'll change the way captured food is done.  I'll modify it slightly to 1 per 2 captured but allow captured food to be "used up".  So that captured food won't join the economy, it'll instead be more of a pillaging sort of thing where you exhaust the area of whatever it can supply until its gone.

This will also apply to food that is gained through surrendered territory.

I'm not sure I see this as an improvement - what might be better is if food was only (or mostly) produced during the summer/autumn months - IIRC the Ukrainian harvest of 1918 was quite reasonable....but it hadn't made its way to the CP by the time they collapsed?

Germany certainly looted the food resources it captured....but it didn't destroy them ...perhaps a better option is to lessen the amount of captured industry that can be used because the locals are starving?

[Walloc]

ORIGINAL: FrankHunter

Doesn't your national status screen up above say 1/0 for captured?

The only 8/4 I see is for raw materials

yes, my bad. I looked in wrong place there. Still doesnt explain why i seem to get 2 every time when its supposedly only 1/3 chance per each 1. Less ofc course as said rolls are pre determained

Ur line of

Its only random when there's fractions. So if you had 8 captured food you would get 2 plus a 2/3 chance of getting a third.

Made me look for a 8 i guess [;)]

Kind regards,

Rasmus

[FrankHunter]

but it didn't destroy them

In the case of the food hexes Germany gets from the Russian surrender they would produce, as they do now, at a 1:1 ratio.  The only difference is that each food hex will be checked to see if it continues to produce at all as control changes.  Those that don't aren't necessarily destroyed, just representing that captured food won't produce at the same rate as when it was part of the home nation.

but it hadn't made its way to the CP by the time they collapsed?

But the game doesn't take into account the time to ship food.  So food being produced in the Jul-Aug turn will be available in the Jul-Aug turn, even from the Ukraine.

[FrankHunter]

Still doesnt explain why i seem to get 2 every time when its supposedly only 1/3 chance per each

Food is a 1:3, raw materials are a 1:2.  The reason being, I figured farmers and animals leaving the area would make it harder to get food production going than it would be to extract raw materials.

[SMK-at-work]

ORIGINAL: FrankHunter

but it didn't destroy them

In the case of the food hexes Germany gets from the Russian surrender they would produce, as they do now, at a 1:1 ratio.  The only difference is that each food hex will be checked to see if it continues to produce at all as control changes.  Those that don't aren't necessarily destroyed, just representing that captured food won't produce at the same rate as when it was part of the home nation.

That seems needlessly more complex that it is now?

but it hadn't made its way to the CP by the time they collapsed?

But the game doesn't take into account the time to ship food.  So food being produced in the Jul-Aug turn will be available in the Jul-Aug turn, even from the Ukraine.

Yeah that's why I suggested perhaps have food mostly produced in summer & autumn.....[8D]

there's a few good summaries of the effects of the blockade around - eg http://www.historyonline.co.uk/freesite ... ticle.html (short nd sweet) or http://www.js-ww1.bham.ac.uk/fetch.asp? ... birrer.pdf (more in depth), but most of them don't mention the Ukraine othe than in passing.

What is interstin tho is that the effects of the blockade were being felt as early as 1916, and the German crop failed that year, plus hunggarian crop failures in 1914 had gotten AH off to a bad start.

the 2nd URL also notes that the German army had taken to raiding German farms for food by the start of 1918!!

IMO the current 1/3rd system should be fine.

[Sardonic]

ORIGINAL: James Ward

I do see the point he is making.
In the game if Russia surrenders, as it historically did, there is no food problem for Germany. Even before Russia surrenders there is rarely a food problem for Germany.
Historically the German were pretty much starved by the blockade. I don't see how you can put pressure on Germany with a blockade even if the game goes exactly as history.

The Germans were starved by the decision of Ludendorf to conscript the available men OFF the farms.
It was a calculated decision that like so many of his had unfortunate after effects.
He gambled that Germany could win in 1918. It didnt happen. No harvest, because no farmers.
Germany starved.

[FrankHunter]

That seems needlessly more complex that it is now?

Yep, but the complexity part of it would be "under the hood".  It would mean it would be harder to calculate exactly what hexes you have to take to alleviate your shortages because you wouldn't know in advance what captured hexes will produce and for how long.

Crop failures would be quite easy to represent, natural ones could be random and those as a result of actions like what Sardonic lists above could be the result of falling below 100 manpower in your national pool.

[SMK-at-work]

Sardonic your analysis is simplistic and basically wrong......Germany was already starving before 1918 - have a look at the 2nd link I gave above (its a pdf & takes a while to load tho).  German troops were perhaps slowed as much by eating the good food they found in the trenches as by allied actions in the 1918 offensives!!
 
The NY times archive has a numbe of articles from early 1918 too about the expectations of the Central Powers in regard to Russia, with rushing food to their civilians being one of the foremost concerns.
 
the allies had also conscripted from farms - but British cereal and crop production went UP in WW1 as they moved away from meat - they imported that from the USA and the Empire.

[Walloc]

ORIGINAL: FrankHunter

Still doesnt explain why i seem to get 2 every time when its supposedly only 1/3 chance per each

Food is a 1:3, raw materials are a 1:2.  The reason being, I figured farmers and animals leaving the area would make it harder to get food production going than it would be to extract raw materials.

Sorry i guess i didnt explained well enough.

I have 2 captured food = 2 times 1/3 a chance to get them. Aka i should only get 2, 1 in 9 times.
When i load the pre turn to get to the exact above strategic turn i get 2 food over and over. Math doesnt add up less ofc rolls are alrdy saved.

Kind regards,

Rasmus

[FrankHunter]

walloc, currently 2 captured food hexes ends up as 0 food with a 66% chance of getting 1 food. 

You cannot be getting 2 food from just 2 captured food hexes.  Perhaps you mean food hexes that have been handed over on a permanent basis such as by a conquered Belgium?