Rebels (Canoerebel) vs. Redcoats (Miller) - Big B 192

[Canoerebel]

1/18/43 and 1/19/43

I will edit this and give a detailed report late tonight or tomorrow morning, but in short the Koepang invasion is going very well.  The Allies have lost CVE Nassau and two MSW, with a few other ships damaged.  Many/most of the troops are on the ground and well supplied.  No sign of the KB.  I've even been able to send a bunch of empty (and undamaged) transports and a few auxilliary ships toward home.  On the 19th, the Allies bombarded.  AV was 2,000+ while the Japanese AV was 350 (the only Japanese infantry present is a mixed  brigade).  The Allies will shock attack on the 20th.

Edited to add: See detailed report below.

[VSWG]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Then Things Got Crazy: Some of my transport convoys had become scattered and were lagging behind, so rather than sending only a part of the transports in, orders were issued for most of the Allied TFs to rendezvous one hex east of Koepang. This includes all troop and supply transports, replenishment ships, US CVs and the CVE, and most of the surface combat TFs. The largest combat TF - which was just one hex south of Koepang - was changed to bombardment. Then I noticed it didn't have a DMS. So I changed things. I sent that TF to the main rendezvous hex to meet up with two extra DMSs heading that way. In its place, one of the surface combat TFs in the main CV group will bombard Koepang. Then I received an emergency phone call that required a visit to a local hospital. I ended my turn and sent it to Miller. Later, after things quieted (the emergency turned out fine), it occurred to me that originally my CVs had orders to follow one of the combat TFs. I can't remember whether I canceled that order and whether it's the combat TF heading to Koepang. I think the follow order was canceled, but if not, my CVs will follow that TF to Koepang, probably encounter mine fields, and remain there. The minefield could be a calamity, and the fact that CV CAP is halfed when CVs are in a land hex could be disastrous. I think I had canceled those orders, but I won't know for sure until Miller runs the turn file tomorrow.

You might want to save your game into a different slot immediately before finalizing the turn. That way you can always check the turn after you have sent it to your opponent.

[Canoerebel]

1/18/43 to 1/20/43
 
Koepang:  The invasion is going well.  There has been no appearance by the Japanese Navy, and after the 18th no further appearances by the Japanese airforce.  The KB was either too far away or Miller didn't want to chance it against 6 Allied CVs and the land-based air.  I'm curious about a few things that I wish I could ask Miller:  (1)  Did he receive intel that Allied units were prepping for Koepang?  (2) Why didn't he have a few subs stationed off Western Australia to give warning of an invasion? and (3) Why wasn't Koepang heavily mined?  One answer may be that he thought the Allied were focusing on New Guinea and the Solomons.  If so, the invasion of Buna and build up of PM and Milne Bay paid handsome dividends.
 
D-Day (January 18):  Allied troops transports arrived and began unloading.  During the morning landings, shore guns caused more than 1800 casualties.  Liberators from Australia bombed the airfield.  A series of small strikes by bombers from Kendari ensued - nine separate raids in the morning, ranging from 3 to 24 Bettys, some escorted and some alone.  These raids scored torpedo hits against two MSW (1 TT each), AK Empire Success (1 TT), CVE Nassau (3 TT), and AP Westralia (1 TT).  27 B-17s from Darwin raided Kendari and destroyed at least 10 Japanese aircraft.  During the p.m. phase, six more small Japanese raids occurred, but failed to score any hits.  CVE Nassau and the two stricken MSWs sank.  A bombardment attack by the Japanese showed that only infantry in Koepang is the 21st Mixed Brigade.
 
D+1:  A quiet day.  No Japanese aircraft showed up.  The Allied transports continue to unload.  The Allies end the day with a bombardment, inflicting 157/7 casualties and showing an Allied AV of 2081 to just 352 for the Japanese.
 
D+2:  The quiet continues.  B-17s hit Kendari, but don't destroy any planes on the ground.  It appears Miller has pulled his aircraft out of range.  IA shock attack by the invading troops followed.  If the combat report was accurate, it reduced forts from 9 to 7, came off at 13:1, caused 954/14 to 551/15/4 casualties, and the Allies took the base.  But when I opened the turn file the Japanese still held the base!  So I must've been hit by the out-of-sync bug.  The Allied troops will bombard on D+3 and then try another shock attack.
 
Invasion Shipping:  As transports have unloaded they have been sent to various home ports (Perth and Townsville mainly) along with some auxilliary ships.  It is really satisfying knowing that so many transports emerged from the invasion unscathed.  Thus far the Allies have only lost the ships listed above - a CVE and two MSW.  BB North Carolina suffered moderate damage and is in Darwin pumping out water.  A few merchant ships and auxilliaries suffered moderate or light damage to shore guns, but all should make it to port except possibly one SC.
 
China:  Allied fighters sprung a devastating ambush on the 19th.  For the first time in weeks, P-40s and P-38s provided CAP over some of the cities suffering from Miller's massive raids.  Over Changsha, P-40s knocked down 6 Tonys, 17 Sallies, and 2 Dinahs without loss.  Over Sian, P-38s destroyed 10 Tonys, 3 Sallys, and 6 Helens without loss.  Over Wuchow, Spitfires flamed 5 Tonys without loss.  Near Nanchang, P-38s flew CAP over the Chinese troops and downed 2 Zeros, 10 Tonys, 4 Sallys, 4 Helens, and a Lily wihtout loss.  For the day, the Allies lost 3 aircraft, the Japanese 85.  Why did Allied fighters suddenly perform so well after getting chewed up every time before?  High morale and low fatigue must've made a huge difference.  There were no Japanese bombing raids on the 20th.  B-17s from near Kunming hit Canton, destroying 9 aircraft on the ground and losing two of their own.
 
New Guinea:  On the 18th, a combat TF sinks two Japanese AK and a PG at Lae.  On the 20th, bombers brave Rabaul's stout CAP sinking an AK.
 
Suva: A combat TF sinks two Japanese AP, an MSW, and an AK.  Since the KB hasn't shown itself at Koepang or elsewhere, I cancelled the invasion of Nandi.  CV Essex and four CVEs have arrived at Bora Bora.  They will remain there for awhile to see whether any opportunities arise.
 
Ceylon:  Quiet.  The Japanese troops at Colombo remain marooned.  Miller is probably using sub transports to evacuate as many as possible.  I'm not sure it's worth the effort to attack 45,000 well-entrenched troops right now.  I've begun shifting a few bomber squadrons to NE India
 
What's Next:  When I look back on the Koepang operation, I am amazed at how long it took.  Nearly two months!  In all likelihood, therefore, it may be two to three months before the Allies are ready to mount another major strike.  And where should that be?  Rabaul?  Tarawa?  Kendari?  In the meantime, the Allies will try to pick off a few easier plums, including Nandi, Suva (now garrisoned by only 5,000 troops), some of the lightly held bases in the Koepang vicinity, and possibly some of the island north of Suva.  I don't think I'll take a stab at Canton Island or Baker Island yet. 

[Canoerebel]

1/21/43 to 1/24/43
 
Koepang:  The Allies took Koepang by shock attack on the 22nd, but a remnant of the Japanese garrison held out until the 24th.  I had expected the defeated Japanese to retreat towards Dili, but apparently the units were destroyed - the Japanese suffered losses of 7807/31, 3011/11, and 10,265/28 over three days of attacks.  The airfield is operational and the Allies landed plenty of supplies.  On the 23rd, Spitfire, F-5, and PBY squadrons moved to Koepang. A Dakota squadron in Darwin air transported most of a Base Force to Koepang.  On the 24th, a B-24 squadron moved to Koepang.  The Koepang invasion exceeded the Allies' best hopes.  Losses were negligible and the Japanese were caught off guard - there seem to be alot of lightly held bases nearby.

Timor:  Two Aussie brigades are loading in Darwin and will make for Lautem; an Aussie division at Koepang is loading and will make for Dili.  I don't anticipate much opposition.

US CVs:  Heading for Darwin to refuel. Then they may be sent to Brisbane or Sydney to rest, or I may keep them in either Darwin or Townsville.  Essex remains at Bora Bora.  I'll probably send her west to join the other six soon.

KB: No sign of it.

New Guinea/Solomons: Liberators and B-25s from Milne Bay hit Japanese shipping at Rabaul on the 21st, sinking one AK and damaging two others. Recon shows Japan has 80,000+ troops here.

China: Miller's airmen gain the upper hand again with the Allies and Japs taking equal losses on the 2nd, but the Allies getting squashed on the 24th. Time to pull back and regroup.

Japanese Offensives?:  No obvious signs that Miller is up to anything.  He know where the US CVs are, so he might see an opportunity to strike elsewhere.  That's why I've been cautious with the invasion of Nandi.  Midway and the Aleutians could be targets.  Or Miller may have his hands full shifting units to face threats.

Allied Long Term Objectives:  The main Allied thrust in 1943 will head west into DEI, Celibes, Borneo.  Within four months, the main objectives are Makassar and Kendari.  In the months after that, Balikpan, Tarakan, and Bali are the most likely targets.

Allied Short Term Objectives:  The Allies want to continue applying pressure across the map, and also take some lightly held bases, or bases within range of LBA and fighters.  (1) SoPac - The Allies will strike Nandi, Suva, and the small islands to the north.  The Suva Brigade, 40th Division, and another unit are on the way to Nandi.  (2)  New Guinea/Solomons:  Likely Allied targets:  Lae, Finchshaven, Weewak, Admiralty Islands, Kaeving, and possibly Buin, Shortlands, Lunga.  (3)  To the West:  The Allies will try to take Amboina and some of the smaller bases and build them to support the bigger strikes against Kendari and Macassar.  (4) Burma:  I'm still puzzled why Miller withdrew from Mandalay all the way to Rangoon.  I'm building up Meiktila, and moving reinforcements to Mandalay.  Eventually, once there are adequate Base Forces at Akyab, Mandalay, Magwe, and Meiktila, the Allies will move toward Rangoon or Moulmein.  This will be intended to tie down Japanese forces in this theater.

Opportunity Knocking:  The DEI and the island to the north and northeast seems open to attack.  I believe the Allies could re-load the Koepang invasion troops and strike Kendari and other bases.  Stonewall Jackson probably would.  Am I being a Ewell by holding back?  I'm not going to extend myself yet.  Moving supplies and support troops to this theater, and limited offensive operations to take small, nearby bases, will take alot of time and shipping for the next few months.  I don't want to overextend.

[Canoerebel]

1/25/43
 
Miller will be tied up for a week or two, so we should have a lull.  I'll use the time to fine tune my plans and to work out the logistics.  One of the most important jobs is to figure out how to get troops from Pago Pago, Pearl, and the U.S. to the places they need to be.  Most of my APs are in Australia.  I'll need to send some east to help with transportation.
 
China:  At Chungking, 116 Tonys and 168 Helens and Sallies face 8 P-38s.  The Japs lose 5 T and 1 H while the Allies lose 7 P-38.  The Chinese position at Kanhsien looks good after repulsing the Japs weeks ago, but I'm worried about Changsha and Sian, both of which have supply problems.  I would lean toward sending the Chinese SEAC units in Burma back to China , but I wonder if they would just exacerbate the suppy problems.  My situation in China is worrisome, elsewhere on the map I feel good about things considering it's January '43.
 
Ceylon:  The Japanese troops at Colombo seem good and marooned.  Miller may try to evacuate via sub, but I doubt he'll risk surface transport.
 
Burma:  10 B-17s and 20 Liberators from Akyab hit the airbase at Victoria Point, but didn't find any targets to speak of.  A large BF (222nd British) is at Ledo.  I may air transport it to Chengtu, Chungking, or Kunming.  That will allow me to transfer some 4E bombers from India to China.
 
Timor & Vicinity:  The Allied victory at Koepang opened the door to the heart of Japanese held territory.  My F-5 unit is reconning as far as Soerbaja, just to give Miller some heartburn.  With troops already loading to take Lautem and Dili, I'm going to also mount a quick operation for Amboina.  From there we'll see - Makassar and Kendari are the next major targets, with Balikpan and Tarakan to follow.  How far do I need to be by the end of '43?
 
New Guinea/Solomons:  2nd Marine Div., based mainly at PM with a detachment at Buna, is prepping for Kendari.  It will be moved to Townsville to rest and refit.  Buna and Woodlark Island need a base forces before the Alies proceed with operations aimed at Finschafen, Shortlands, and/or Buin.
 
Suva/Nandi:  Suva Brigade just departed Auckland making for Nandi.  D-Day is about five days off.  Transports are already loaded at Tonga (2nd Marine Raider Battalion and a field artillery unit) and at Pago Pago (40th US Div) and will embark at about D Minus 3.  Two "recon" AKs were sent WNW from Pago Pago to take position east and west of Nukufetau Island to provide warning if the KB happens to sail this way.
 
Pago Pago:  Some units are prepping for the Kendari and Makassar operations, other for destinations even further down the road.
 
Pearl Harbor:  Most units here are prepping for places like Tarawa, Canton Island, and Baker Island - positions that the Allies have no intention of attacking any time in the near future.

[Alfred]

Canoerebel,
 
Moving 4E to China will create a significant drain on your supply dumps there.  Not only will 4E operations themselves consume copious amounts of supply, but they will probably attract sizeable enemy bombing raids against their base, thus necessitating you to maintain a strong defensive fighter presence which in turn consumes supplies.  There is also a significant opportunity cost involved.
 
Assuming that Kendari and Maccassar are lightly held, then they are logical targets following your Koepang success.  Their capture would threaten the Redcoats entire SRA position.  However, this too will be obvious to your opponent who probably would reinforce his positions there and be in a position to strike at your supply lines. 
 
An alternative Allied strategy is to recapture Ambon (which you are considering) both to protect your flank in any subsequent move on Kendari and to allow for a move on Morotai.  From Morotai you can move on either Mindanao or prepare to neutralise Palau and move on the Ladrones from an unexpected direction.  Combined with a southern thrust from PM/Gili Gili/Lae/Admiralty Islands, such a pincer move would make his depositions in the far South Pacific look extravagant.
 
Alfred 

[Canoerebel]

Thanks for the analysis, Alfred.  I believe you're right about China; that transferring the Brit base force and bombers there would both draw unwanted attention from Japanese bombers and draw down the already low supplies.  Perhaps I'll first try basing some of the bombers in Burma and striking from there.
 
The application of pressure in the SRA and Celebes may be the best way to force Miller to divert some of his men and aircraft from China. His commitment of troops to China (like the Imperial Guards, which after the fall of Manila showed up in Canton and then joined in the Japanese efforts to take Kanhsien) had to leave him weaker in other areas.  So I'll try to exploit the temporary vacuum in the eastern SRA (at Amboina, Kendari, Macassar). 
 
It's only January '43 and Miller hasn't lost a single CV yet, so he remains strong and can launch powerful offensives.  I'll have to be careful, else he could force a Battle of the Bulge sort of setback.

[Canoerebel]

1/26/43

Miller is still unavailable for play - it may be the first of next week before we resume the game. In the meantime, I'll post a few maps and tables showing the situation. This first map shows the situation near Timor following the just completed Allied invasion of Koepang. The Allies already have troop ships moving toward Dili and Lautem, and will soon load troops for Amboina. If the Allies secure these three bases without bringing on a general engagement, Kendari will be the next target.

[Canoerebel]

Here's the score as of January 26, 1943. The disparity in air losses is probably the biggest problem for Miller. The naval losses were essentially even until Miller sank most of the Royal Navy in the Battle of the Maldive Islands and the UK invasion of Trincomalee.

It bears repeating that this is Miller's first game as the Japs and my first WitP game. The Japanese player has to carry much more water during the early part of the game, so my hat's off to Miller.

[Canoerebel]

Miller, my worthy opponent, went "dark" two weeks ago today.  He told me he would be unavailalbe for "a week or two," so he should be back soon.

[Q-Ball]

Too bad, this was a good AAR. I like the format. You were clearly winning though, having a strong base at Koepang that early is just death to Japan.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks for the encouraging words, Q-Ball. It will be four weeks Monday since Miller went offline. He's always been a faithful opponent, so I expect him back eventually.

[Canoerebel]

1/26/43
 
Five weeks to the day after going dark, Miller returned.  I knew he would be unavailalbe for awhile, so I was prepared for a lengthy sabbatical, but not quite this long.  It's going to take some time and thought to remember what I was doing.  I recall the major short range plan - to seize Dili and Lautem - followed shortly thereafter by a move on Amboina - but I've lost the feel for logistics.  In WitP you have to think way ahead to move suppies, fuel, troops, and aircraft, but I've lost the feel for what I need to be doing in that regard.  It'll come back, but slowly.
 
Timor:  The troop convoy heading for Lautem should arrive tomorrow.  An AP was torpedoed by a Jap sub and suffered greivous damage.  It may not make it to the invasion beach.  The convoy heading for Dili ought to depart Koepang tonight.  The US CVs will take station about 180 miles west of Darwin to cover these invasions.  Based on recon, I don't expect much resistance.  A 64 bomber B-24 group just moved from Darwin to Koepang.  It has been given orders to strike Soerabaja's oil facilities.
 
NG:  My plans here have grown fuzzy.  The Allies hold PM, Milne Bay, Buna, and Woodlark Island.  I don't think I'll move from here - I'll focus all my attention on the DEI for now.
 
Suva:  Invasion fleets should arrive at Nandi within the week.  Miller never took Nanomea.  I've picked up a Seabee unit at Raratonga and will move it there.
 
Burma:  No idea what to do here.  You may recall that Miller suddenly and precipitously withdrew from Mandalay some time ago and pulled back to Rangoon.  I'm not prepared to move forward yet.
 
China:  Miller is pounding the stuffin' out of my cities.  Everyone is low on supplies.

[Canoerebel]

1/27/43 to 2/4/43
 
Following up on their success at Koepang, the Allies have continued to seize Japanese-held territory, are looking for more, and are waiting to see how and when Miller will react.  There's been no sign of the KB or any concerted Japanese counterattack.
 
SoPac:  The Allied invasion fleets arrived at Nandi and began unloading on the 3rd.  Light resistance was anticipated and there are no escorting combat ships - picket ships were positioned well to the north to give warning of any possible approach by the KB.  Nandi was held by a Naval Guard unit, which retreated to Suva on the 4th after a 5:1 shock attack.  The invaders - 40th Division, Fiji Brigade, a Marine raider battalion, and a field artillery unit - will now move on Suva.  Again, I do not anticipate strong opposition.  As soon as this operation is complete, the CV Essex and associated CVEs will move from Bora Bora to Australia.
 
Timor:  The Allies took Lautem (light opposition) on the 29th and Dili (no opposition) on the 30th.  Recon sighted a combat TF approaching, so I ordered the transports to head home.  However, this combat TF headed instead to Kendari (perhaps it was a fast transport convoy) where it underwent an attack by 77 Koepang-based B-24s on the 1st.  The low-experience bombers scored one hit on CL Tama and 2 on a DD.  Jap subs made a real nuisance of themselves, scoring 3 hits on AP President Monroe, 1 on AP Crescent City, and 2 on AP Hugh Scott.  More attacks damaged AKs the next day.  I-16 took 12 depth charge hits on the 29th; I-2 hit a mine at Darwin and then took 6 depth charge hits on the 4th.  I-75 put 2 TT into DD Dwin on the 30th, but the DD made it safely to Darwin.  The Allies are making arrangements to load troops for a quick stab at Amboina.
 
Burma:  Quiet here - the Japs haven't moved from Rangoon.  Except for a few advance units, the Allies remain holed up in Mandalay, Meiktila, and Akyab. 
 
India:  The Japs still hold Colombo.  The Allies bomb them regularly.
 

[Canoerebel]

2/5/43 to 2/9/43
 
SoPac:  Allied troops are on the road from Nandi to Suva.  They should arrive in three or four days.  Once I take Suva, I'll send Essex and several CVLs west from Bora Bora to Australia.  I'll also have a much shorter supply line from the US to SWPAC.  Miller's hold on Canton Island will also become quite tenuous, although I have no intention of attacking there in the near future.
 
DEI & Vicinity:  Two invasion fleets are targeting Amboina.  Both loaded at Koepang; the first, carrying a division, just embarked today and is at Dili; the second, carrying a cavalry division, artillery unit, and HQ, will embark tomorrow.  The US CVs are moving out from Darwin to cover the invasion.  Before the troops land, I'll do a quick recon of Amboina to confirm that it is as lightly held as it seems - to this point I've steered away the F-5 recon unit based at Koepang to try and keep the element of surprise.
 
India:  Reinforcements are landing at Trincomalee.  I'll have AV of about 800 there.  These troops will move on Colombo.  I'll see if I have enough to bag the marooned Japs there.  I'm bombing them every day, but there are 45,000 defenders, so I may not have enough to beat them yet.
 
China:  Miller tried a deliberate attack in the hex west of Nanchang on the 7th.  The 0:1 cost him 6,892/73/15, while the Chinese suffered just 1181/19/4.  Miller continues to bomb resources, manpower, etc. in most Chinese cities.
 
What's Next:  Once Suva and, hopefully, Amboina fall, the Allies will have several offensive options:  (1) the DEI and Kendari; (2) NG and the Solomons; and (3) Tarawa and other CenPac bastions.  Most or all of the Allied effort will go toward the first target, but I may try to grab a base or two in the other two (like Finchshafen) to keep Miller guessing.  Eventually I'll also have to come up with a plan for the Brits in India and Burma - either to attack overland toward Rangoon or to try an invasion of Malaya or Sumatra.  But that's a ways off.
 

[Canoerebel]

2/10/43 to 2/14/43
 
SWPac:  The Allies are delighted - and somewhat mystified - to discover that Amboina is lightly held by the enemy - 31st SNLF is it.  The Allies begin landing the 6th Aussie Division on the 12th, try a 1:1 deliberate attack on the 13th, and take Amboina on the 14th.  I'm mystified simply at the lack of Japanese response to the Allied invasions of Koepang followed in short order by Lautem, Dili, and now Amboina.  Since the other troops weren't needed, I'm diverting the second invasion TF to the west to seize Namlea, a level 2(1) airfield 120 miles away.  I'm also air transporting a small base force to Amboina to handle a squadron of P38s.  It's going to take me quite some time to get my logistics and troops straightened out between Australia and these new bases, but I'll continue to try to spread my perimiter if the "vacuum" of Japanese troops continues.  I'm about to withdraw 2nd Marine Division from Port Moresby - it's prepping for Balikpan, as are other troops.  Kendari, however, is the next major objective and reconn shows that it is held by 14,000 Japanese.  What's Miller up to? 
 
New Guinea/Solomons:  Miller sent a few supply convoys to Rabaul and Buin and they were hit by B25s and B24s out of Milne Bay.  Perhaps 6 or 8 ships were hit and 3 have thus far gone under.  Since the DEI are apparently so open to Allied expansion right now, I don't have any plans to move on the Solomons right now.
 
Suva:  The four Allied units from Nandi arrived at Suva and tried a shock attack on the 14th.  The 1:1 attack lowered forts from 5:4 and cost the Japs 296/5 to 219/14.  The defenses consists of 3 Naval Guards units.  I hope the Allies will take the base in a few more days without the need for reinforcements.  All four of the Allied units are prepped 100% for Suva.
 
India:  Allied troops are beginning the move from Trincomalee to Colombo.  The Allies will have an AV of about 1000.  Another Indian division just arrived at Aden, fully prepped for Colombo, and is boarding transports.  If needed, that will add another 350 to the AV.  I have no idea how strong the defense will prove to be, but once the Allies take Colombo, the Allies in India and Burma will begin prepping either for a move on Malaya or Sumatra.  I'm toying with the idea invading a vital point - something like Sabang, Padang, Teloekbetoeng, or even Palembang - with the US CVs providing air cover.  But that's a ways off yet.
 
Miller:  He knows what he's doing and he knows strategy, so while the complete absence of opposition has been a surprise, I bet he's planning something big and nasty to try to throw the Allies off balance. 
 
 

[Canoerebel]

2/15/43 to 2/21/43
 
The Battles of Colombo and Suva continue, and there are signs of Japanese activity in the DEI and Celebes.

SoPac:  An Allied shock attack at Suva on the 15th comes off at 0:1 and reduces forts to 4.  The Japs lose 157/4 to 162/10.  Another shock attack on the 20th reduces forts to zero and results in 487/3 to 214/4.  Suva ought to fall to the Allies in a few days.  As soon as that happens, the Allies can begin shifting troops from SoPAC to SWPAC and begin serious reorganization, resupply, and planning.  CV Essex, most of the CVEs, and a CVL will head west to join the main Allied CV fleet based at Darwin.  This will give the Allies a "Death Star," which I think some consider gamey, but for now I'm sticking with it.  I won't, however, send it far behind enemy lines.  I don't want to take that chance.  To the north, I somehow allowed a small troop transport (carrying 125th base force) to sail near Canton Island where Betties ambushed them and sank at least 1 MSW and 1 AP.  The survivors are scurrying for Palmyra.

SWPAC:  Allied forces seized the island of Nambia (120 miles west of Amboina) on the 16th.  This will be the last significant thrust until the Allies can get everything properly distributed, supplied, and built up in the area, which includes Koepang, Dili, Lautem, Nambia, Amboina, and NW Australia.  Having this area under control is a real head start for the Allies, but supplies and suport personnel need to be properly distributed.  That will take some time.  On the 21, 102 B24s (!) from Keopang hit Japanese combat ships at Kendari, scoring 5 hits on 3 DD (2, 2, and 1 each).  There have been a number of Jap convoys sighted in the area to the west and NW.  I can't tell whether Miller is gathering his forces or running fast supply convoys.

India:  Bombardments reveal the Japs have two divisions (33rd, 38th) at Colombo, but only the latter has a strong AV.  He must be evacuating the former by sub.  The Allied troops try a deliberate attack on the 20th, reducing forts to 8.  The 0:1 results in 261/6 Jap casualties and 600/8 Allied.  We'll bombard awhile until reinforcements arrive.  Miller tried a bold, clever suprise attack on the 16th.  A parachute regiment dropped on Trincomalee, which was garrisoned by just a base force.  The resulting shock attack at 2:1 failed, thank goodness.  The Allies then began air transporting in the Brit 215th Brigade, followed a few days later by troops transports bringing in the 25th Indian Division.  The Allies should be able to vanquish the 4,000 paratroopers without too much trouble.  These units - along with another Indian division on the way - will then move to Colombo.  It's going to take a major effort to take Colombo, but the end result is just a matter of time.  Then the Allies will begin prepping for a major offensive in the Indian Ocean theater.

China:  On the 28th, the Japanese launch a 0:1 shock attack 60 miles west of Nanchang and are repulsed.  The Japs lose 5839/168/14 to 1405/12/4.  On the 15th, P38s flying LR CAP over Sian ambush Japanese bombers, downing 6 Zeros, 9 Sally, and 5 Helens while losing just 2.  On the 19th, the same P38 squadrons try a similar ambush over Changsha with impressive results.  The Japs lose 19 Zeros, 12 Sallys, 1 Dinah, 12 Nates, 8 Tonys, 10 Helens, and some Oscars.  The Allies lose 14 P40s and 5 P38s.

[Canoerebel]

2/22/43 to 3/7/43
 
SoPac:  The Allies took Suva on a 7:1 shock attack on 2/27.  The Japanese defenders, 3 Naval Guards units, then held out gamely until 3/5 despite a series of high odds attacks.  I got a message on 3/5 that "Japanese units are surrounded" (I've never seen that one before) and that was it for the defenders.  Allies have moved a MLE to Suva and commenced serious mining efforts just in case Miller launches a counter-attack.  This victory results in the Allies taking additional steps to ready for the next major offensive - primarily in DEI and vicinity, but also northern New Guinea and perhaps the Solomons.  CVE Essex and a host of CVEs have left Bora Bora for Australia. 

Australia/DEI/Vicinity:  Still no signs of a Japanese counter-attack.  I've got troops in various stages of preparation for assaults ranging from Kendari (near term) to Balikpan (middle term) to Davao and Cebu (long term).  Some of these units are in Darwin or on the way.  Others are still as far away as Auckland, Noumea, Suva, and Pago Pago.  Logistics is a challenge!  Recon shows the Jap garrison at Kendari at just 9,000.  I have a bunch of units half preppred (55%) for Kendari - including 2nd Marines - so I may move quickly here.  What I need more than anything else is base forces, supplies, and fuel!

India:  Miller's trops at Colombo aren't going without a fight.  First he tried the surprise paratroop assault against Trincomalee (the remnants surrendered on the 26th).  Then he sent a bunch of supply ships to Colombo.  He timed the arrival of the ships with inserting a heck of alot of aircraft at Colombo.  I think he was partly successful - unloading supplies (I don't think he was evacuating troops, because recon shows a similar number there - about 43,000).  Allied bombers claimed a few AKs and PCs.  Allied bombers and fighters got the best of the air battle.  One the 1st, Miller tried a disastrous deliberate attack at 0:1 that cost the Japs 3949/86/7 to 35/2.  The Allies counterattacked the next day at 0:1, losing 610/18 to the Japs 662/3.  It's going to take awhile to reduce Colombo (unless the Japs keep attacking), but the end will come.

Burma:  Allied heavy bombers took a crack at resources, heavy industry, and oil at Rangoon and Hanoi over several days and got in some licks.

China:  Allied fighters staged forward and provided LR CAP to a Chi Com unit that had served as target practice for a week or more.  The Japanese lost 60 planes.  The Allies emerged from the ambush unscathed.

CenPac:  SigInt on the 3rd indicates the Jap's 9th Division moving to Baker Island.  At this point I don't care about Baker itself (held by the Japs, along with Canton Island), but I would not be surprised if Miller counterattacks in SoPac or CenPac.  He knows where the bulk of the US CVs are.  Undoubtedly he wants to strike somewhere, and these areas would be fairly safe for the KB.  I'll have to give this some thought.  Suva, Pago Pago, Palmyra, and of course Hawaii have strong garrisons and alot of mines, so I doubt he can wreak too much damage on land, but he could get into the midst of the myriad convoys traveling the sea lanes from the US to SoPac and on to NZ and Australia.

[Canoerebel]

3/8/43 to 3/12/43
 
There has been a marked absence of warfare over this period, and prior periods too.  I know what the Allies are doing, but not the Japs.  Here's what's going on:
 
Allied Perspective
 
SWPac: Having taken Koepang (1/43), Amboina (2/43) and nearby bases (Lautem, Dili, and Namlea), the Allies discovered that this area was lightly guarded.  Yet its taking time to bring up additional troops and base forces to expand upon this perimeter and exploit what seems to be the tender Japanese underbelly.  Troops, support, and supplies are on the move and I expect to begin another series of attacks in about two weeks.  Kendari will be the first objective.  To support this next wave, the Allies currently have large base forces at Darwin and Koepang and a small BF at Amboina.  Additional BFs will arrive within two weeks at Amboina, Lautem, and Namlea.  I believe the invasion force will be spearheaded by 2nd Marines, an army division, a RCT, and a few support troops.  Recon shows that Kendari is held by about 10,000 Japanese troops.  Once Kendari falls, the Allies will then look toward Makassar, Balikpan, Manado, and Morotai.  To support these operations, the Allies will be able to bring forward some of the BFs and other support personnel at Darwin, so it shouldn't take quite so long to prepare.  By the time the Allies take these bases and begin looking at the southern Philippines, I hope the Brits will be applying pressure not far to the west (more about that below).
 
NG/Solomons:  Except for Rabaul, this area looks open to conquest.  While it's more of a side show, taking some bases does create another axis of attack, apply some pressure to the enemy, and continue to restrict the Japanese supply line to its far eastern bases at Canton Island, Baker Island, and Tarawa.  I have at least one army division, a RCT, and a handful of Aussie/Kiwi brigades prepped for Lae, Buin, Kaeving and Shortlands.  Buka is open.  I will take at least a few of these bases and create a new "front line" which will take some of the front line duties (and therefore the pressure) off PM and Milne Bay.
 
Suva/PP/Vicinity:  Suva and PP are garrisoned by strong forces still.  Japanese-held Canton Island seems to be strongly defended.  I have no intention of committing forces here any time soon.
 
Wake Island:  I have an army division and some support units fully prepped, but that was primarily meant to mislead Miller if he received intel.  I won't head this way any time soon either.
 
India:  Two more Indian divisions are nearing Madras and will be transported by ship to Ceylon.  I hope to take Colombo in four or five weeks.  Just a guestimate.  Then the Brits (possibly joined by the American CVs) will invade Java, Sumatra, or Malaya.  The hope here will be to apply some pressure on the Kuching side of Borneo while the Americans and Aussies are moving up on the eastern side.
 
Burma:  I have 2000 AV at Mandalay.  Eventually they'll be sent forth toward Rangoon, but for now I'm satisfied with the status quo here.
 
China:  Quiet.  P38s and Spitfires seem to have dissuaded Miller from hitting Chungking, so hopefully the Chinese can rebuild the bombed-out industry there and start generating a few supplies.
 
Japanese Perspective:
 
So, what's Miller up to?  By now he must be fairly certain that the main axis of the Allied attacks is through DEI, Borneo and vicinity.  Will he remain on the offensive or will he attack?  If the latter, will he try to create as strong an attack as possible and come after the US CVs, or will he look for a quieter area far away and exploit the numerical advantages he can gain?  He can seize the western Aleutians, most of which are lightly held, but that wouldn't seem to be of lasting benefit.  He can interdict supply lines between the US and Pearl, or between the US and SoPac.  That would be my biggest concern right now, but I doubt he sends the KB that far away from home and from the focal point of the war.  He can hit Midway (but why?) or wait to counterattack in the Solomons (quite possible).  Or he can try to build up in the DEI/Bornea/Celebes and plan to spring a trap there.  Far to the west, he's spent more time and effort than I expected trying to save Colombo.  I say there's a 75% chance the Japs are preparing for a massive counter-attack somewhere.  I just don't know where.  The only thing that would really hurt is to blunt my main-axis of attack or to destroy the US carriers.

[Canoerebel]

3/13/43 to 3/20/43
 
This has been a quiet period everywhere except the Banda Sea, where the Allies are preparing to invade Kendari.
 
Banda Sea: The Kendari invasion fleet assembled at Darwin and will leave on the 21st, to include 2nd Marines (almost fully prepped), 1st Marines (prepping for Balikpan, but coming along for the ride), a RCT, an Aussie anti-tank unit, a base force, and most of 19th US Engineering Reg't (part of this unit was wiped out when a Jap sub sank an AK north of Darwin).  32nd Infantry Division will be in reserve and is currently on transports nearing Townsville.  The US CVs have sortied and will cover this invasion - or at least the first part.  A large base force just arrived at Amboina, allowing the Allies to transfer a multitude of aircraft there.  Two more BFs will arrive at Namlea and Lautem within a week, permitting the Allies to broaden their forward air support.  Recon shows Kendari to be held by 10 to 12,000 Jap troops and I hope the city will quickly fall.  To the north, recon shows Morotai is lightly held (and doesn't even have an airbase) so I plan to make it a secondary target and follow up there quickly.  Liberators based out of Koepang and Amboina can now hit Japanese cities as distant as Soerabaja and Davao.
 
India:  The Allies continue to send troops to Colombo - 44th Indian Division just arrived with 3rd Indian Div. following in about a week.  A "trial" deliberate attack on the 14th at 0:1 odds was repulsed with losses to the Japs of 595/8 and to the Allies 976/30/1.  Another test attack will occur on the 21st.  I have bushels of bombers based in India targeting Colombo, but only a handful fly every turn, and those with poor results.
 
China:  Nobody's doin' nothin' here, other than Miller bombing the stew out of my garrison at Kanhsien.
 
SoPac:  The Allies moved a small base force to Nanumea and based an F-5 and PBY squadron there.  Recon shows Tarawa held by 30,000 troops.  I'm not going there anytime soon, but it's worthwhile making Miller at least consider that possibility.
 
NG/Solomons:  The troops detailed to try taking a few Jap bases on New Guinea and in the Solomons are arriving at Townsville.  Recon shows Buna is ungarrisoned, so I'm going to try a shoe-string fast transport invasion.  Other likely targets are Kaeving and either Lae or another NG city that can base aircraft.
 
Subs:  Miller's subs have been a real nuisance, especially near India and in the vicinity of Darwin.  I-4 got clobbered at Madras on the 14th and sank; I-157 was sunk near Darwin; I-174 was hit hard there; I-27 was clobbered at Perth.  Jap subs sank a barge and SC at Darwin on the 15th and the AK carrying part of 19th Engineers on the 19th and have gotten a number of transports near Ceylon over recent weeks.  On the Allied side, Seawolf put 2 fish into an AK near Singapore and Snook put 1 into an AP near Truk. 
 
Miller:  Still shows no signs of striking back, but I have an uneasy feeling that something's brewing.