the pacific in flames - me against marky

[2ndACR]

Panzer Hortland put the 18th UK in Batvia and stopped 2 divisions cold. Placing 3 Divisions in Java will make the place very hard to take as Japan. Once 1 of your divsions arrives, I would start rotating units to Soerbeia to refresh and build up strength. Must prep the units for the base they will defend.
 
 I would use 1 div at Batvia, 1 at Soerbeia (I never can spell that base) and the other one in a central base to react where needed. All bases should have 100 AV in them to prevent para attacks and to prevent easy capture. Ship in massive engineer support and he can forget it. BEUFORTS!!!!!!!!! Pack Java with them. A B25 or B26 group also would add tremindous punch. The torpedo planes are the most valuable.
 
 Judging by his AV strength of units in PI, it will take 4 months to re-build them to full strength again where they are right now. Could be worse if he continues taking serious losses. specially if he did not increase his armament industry. Most of his disablements will be fixed up in Manilla within 2 months or so. You have some time.

[dennishe]

Thanks for your advise!
The majority of the 2nd OZ division arrived in Sourabaja today. The rest of the division will arrive with the 1st OZ division and lots of supply. I have two convoys a few hexes of Darwin. They will have enough capacity to transfer everything. The British convoys are somewhat further away. They bring the 18th UK divison and lots and lots of supply. The OZ divisions are preparing for Soerabaja. The UK division for Batavia.
I have two US BG groups with B17s in the area. I want to fly them from Kendari as long as possible to save supplies. The British torpedobombers are located at Palembang. They will go to Java, when necessary. I will bring in some OZ Beauforts as well. Several US squadrons are underway from the West coast to OZ. From there I will decide whether I use them at Port Moresby or in the DEI.
The American ground troops are pretty much occupied near PH and the south pacific. Most of the engineer troops are far away. I did not expect that Marky would leave me the time to build up a fortress at Java. I have an aviation regiment at Brisbane. I will bring them to keep my planes in the skies.

[wild_Willie2]

The lecture continues:
 
Not only prep your UNITS but also support them with prepped HQ's....
 
HQ's in contested hexes will, by itself, increase combat effectiveness by 20-30 %
 
Prepping a local HQ (1 army etz) for a hex in range will give upto 40% combat bonus.
 
Prepping a regional HQ (SE pacific etz) for a hex in range will give a whopping 100% combat bonus...
 
Prep, prep, and them prep some more.....
 
Having a AIR HQ at an base (prepping them will do nothing btw, but they WILL increase support for LCU's stationed in that hex and will thus give 20-30% bonus) will increase the numbers of missions flown from that base.
 

[dennishe]

Thanks for the lectures wild_willie2.
I'm prepping everything that goes to Java. Problem is that I do not know yet where the fighting will commence. Except for the Dutch troops there are no HQ's or engineers available. All American troops are far away and the British and OZ troops simply don't have any yet. As i said one aviation regiment is being shipped to Java. That's it. The rest is far away and I don't known whether time will allow it to move them to Java or whether they will go to Port Moresby. I expect that things will get hot there as well.
Anyway, things are going OK. The Philipins are still holding on, although there are no supplies left. The 1st OZ division will start embarking tomorrow. The 18th UK division and the supply convoys have passed Medan, out of range of the Betty's that have been stationed at Singapore since recently. This makes things a little more complicated. The Dutch fighters cannot hold off the Japanese bombers when they are escorted by Zero's. I have one FG P40E's at Java and one FS P39's. These are squadrons that used to belong to the USAFFE. Two other FG's are on their way to Java. They are close to Darwin. They will fly from there. Soerabaja seems to be out of range still. Hopefully there won't be appearing more Betty nests. I started bombing Johnston Island again. Hopefully, this will keep the Zero's there long enough to pack Java with troops and supplies. I need about two weeks of time and than I have 3 divisions on full strenght at Java and 300k of supplies. That will be a nasty suprise for Marky when he tries to take the DEI.

[2ndACR]

 I would try to fly (if Manila is open) the AEB engineer unit, aviation regiment and HQ's out of Manilla to somewhere you control and then to OZ to rebuild. Even naval HQ's provide support. That is the key, support. Just dig in like crazy and he will never take Java. I would even be willing to base my CV's at Darwin and wait for his invasion. From the backside of Java, you could pound him to pieces. I have tried the wait and mass my forces to take Java and got clobbered without ever taking a single base. Basically 4 divisions and 2 brigades destroyed, 4 CV's toasted and un-countable shipping. Just could not close the air bases fast enough and keep them closed.
 
My new games, I am on Java by Jan 42 and suck up the ship losses. No more Java fortresses for me.

[dennishe]

When playing the Japanes (vs AI, I did not play the Japanese as PBEM yet) I always take Kuching and Amboina in the first week and stack it with Nell and Betty bombers. This will make it very costly for the allies to transport oil out and troops in. Under these circumstances I wouldn't even think of reinforcing Java.

[dennishe]

March 11th. After a long time of fighting Bataan finally fell. The Japanese were simply too strong and due to the presence of a Japanese surface TF in the Bataan hex I wasn't able to supply it anymore. Anyway, for me March 11th is a record! Marky's troops have suffered a lot of casualties and it will take some time for him to recover.

The Philipins Luzon fell, Davao fell. All small islands are still in my hands. There is little to do there. Perhaps I can withdraw some troops. I don't want to loose more AKs though. I already lost quite a lot.

DEI Nothing happened yet. Fortress Java is building up. The 2nd OZ division is digging in. The convoy with the 1st OZ division is about 4 days from Soerabaja. The Aviation regiment is just behind that. The UK 18th division is also a few days from Java. It had to take a little detour because of the Betties stationed at Singapore. A few supply convoys are just behind that.

New Guinea, Solomons, Gilberts nothing happened. I have a infantery regiment at Palmeyra, The 2 USMC division is at Canton, The Americal division is at Pago Pago, which is build up to a huge base. I have 2 NZ brigades at Suva and an American regiment is on his way to Noumea. I have 4 OZ brigades at Port Moresby and still have Lark force at Rabaul.

Pearl Harbor area Marky took Wake, Midway and Johnston Island. The latter is being bombed daily now to keep the Zero's busy that are stationed there. I have 4 full size divisions at PH. No way Marky is going to take it. I have supplies to hold on for a very long time.

Burma/India I have all troops from Burma withdrawn to Mandalay. They are reinforced by the Chinese divisions from Yunan. Marky is holding Pagan with 7 units. I'm pretty sure he has some divisions there. I have some Indian divisions in the Dacca area. Most of my assault strenght is being build up near Hyderbajad. From there I can quickly respond to any location where the Japanese may land. If he goes on the offensive at Burma, I have time enough to march to the front. Ceylon is not being defended (yet). The 2nd UK division will be operational soon. I will keep them at Kendari, in case Marky bypasses India.

Marky must be up to something. He started really aggressive at PH and from there he hasn't done much. I don't think he has a lot of full size divisions for this, unless he withdrawn troops from China or Manchuria. Although all SNF and SNLFs together also form a pretty big force. Perhaps he will even go for Russia. Anyway, I'm going to try to hold Java as long as possible and from there bomb every oil field in the DEI. His fuel supplies will run dry within a few months. Especially since I sunk the KB refuling TF. Things will get really interesting soon...........

Edit: Marky has 16 units at Pagan now with 35k men, probably more. I think that he is about to start a campaign in Burma.

[dennishe]

A few days passed after Bataan fell and nothing happened. The combat reports are 0 kb. Empty. [>:]
It is March 16th and i still hold every DEI base. There are a lot of ships in the Bataan area. I will try to follow them with my submarines to see where they go.
He must be up to something. Lets assume that Marky is crazy or a brilliant strategist. Would there be a scenario possible where he does not have to go for DEI? He has only enough resources, oil, fuel an supply for a few more months. He either has to win the war by the end of the year, or he has to find an alternative source of oil.
There are only a few locations where you can get oil:
1) DEI. He has not done any attempt to take it, while it would have been very easy for him to do this. By every day that he waits, my forces are building up and it becomes more and more difficult for him to get it. If he needs DEI in his plans, he has made a mistake.
2) The United States. it contains a lot of oil and when he takes it he also will get the autovictory by the beginning of 1943. It will be very difficult for him to capture the United States. The West coast is not defeneded with a lot of troops, but as soon as he sets foot there, I will get all my reinforcements for the coming 180 days immediately (please tell me if I'm wrong). This consist at least out of 4 divisions and several regiments. I have 4 divisions at PH, which I can bring back to the West coast relatively quickly (KB will probably make things difficult). I think I damaged his ground troops at the Philipins hard enough, that Marky does not have enough assault power to risk a west coast attack. Despite this, I stopped shipping troops away from the West coast, until his plans start unfolding.
3) India. He could go for India. This would fit with the 17 units that are gathered at Pagan. A combined attack through Burma and oversees seems a logical plan. I don't know whether there is enough oil in India. There is some in Mandalay. Perhaps capturing Karachi would do for him?
4) The Russian base on the island above Japan (Saraklin or something lake that). It is convenient close to the japanese home islands. I don't know, whether he can get enough oil from there. Anyway, there is stored an awful lot of it. I don't know any Japanese player, who went for it though. It would be an interesting alternative in the end of the war, when Japan is cut off from DEI. There is one drawback. You have to trigger war with Russia.

Do I miss anything?

[Cathartes]

Japan's industrial future depends on the DEI.  Your opponent has pretty much passed on the quick and easy take. He will be very desperate soon enough. 

[wild_Willie2]

That sums it up quite nicely, use your subs to see where his forces are going. Wherever he goes, it must be a massive undertaking using a couple of hundred ships..
 
"If Japanese ground units move east of column 132 (inclusive), then all American and Canadian
air and ground reinforcements will have their delay reduced by 180 days. Also, several U.S.
infantry divisions will become immediately available.
If playing as the Japanese you will therefore find it near impossible to mount an effective invasion
of the American (or Canadian) West Coast. Air raids on this area, however, have no effect on this rule"
 
If he is going for the US with everything he has got, things could get interesting. This would be an all or nothing situation where your troops in their city hexes would be tough to crack.  If he goes for the states, trow the SINK at him....
 

[dennishe]

I'm completely sure now. Marky is going for the West Coast. He has gathered over 700 ships in Osaka/Kobe and I got several intelligence messages that troops are loading. Usually, one hardly sees such a message. I got a lot. Something really big is coming up. Clearly, he has planned this for a long time. Let's take a look at what Marky did so far. He wiped out the American fleet near PH and captured Wake, Midway and Johnston island. Further he took Malaya and the Philipins. These were invasions that were started anyway. He did nothing else (yet). He knows as well that he needs DEI to get oil and that his supplies run dry within a few months. If he would go for DEI, he would have done it already. He wants to finish the war before he runs out of oil. To some things up: THINGS ONLY MAKE SENSE IF HE GOES FOR THE WEST COAST! My submarines near Japan are looking out for huge supply fleets. Further I'm going to have submarines patrolling in a line between Midway and Dutch Harbor. If something is up, they will spot it. I'm planning two major operations to prevent al of this:

Operation 1941 (OK its march 1942 by now, but the movie where John Belushi {picture} defends the West coast is called 1941): Get as many troops back to the West coast as possible. As long as I hold the DEI the only place that I really cannot afford to loose is the West Coast. As long as KB does not show up far before the invasion, I may have time enough to get some divisions back to the USA. This operation is commenced immediately.

Operation Forager: UK and OZ troops will go on the offensive from the DEI and take Palau and the Marianas. They will be supported by the British Fleet and USAFFE air force. I don't think that these places are well defended. By taking them I will treaten the Japanese supply fleet to the west coast and hopefully draw a lot of troops from the fronts. Depending on the situation other locations may be chosen later on. My invasion army will be build up at Java (conveniently, since I already have a big force there). Additional UK and OZ troops will be added to this. I also will move the southwest pacific HQ here. Operation Forager will commence as soon as Marky is about to invade the west coast.

One thing is for sure: This will be a very interesting and short war

[Canoerebel]

Whoa!  Is there any reason to believe he's going for the West Coast as opposed to Pearl?  My money would be on the latter.  Or, possibly, if the TF heads SE, then Australia could be a target.  You get boukoup reinforcements in the USA.  It'll be alot easier to defend the USA with what you would have coming, than to defend Pearl if you weaken it.

[Terminus]

Yeah, don't pull anything out of Pearl.

[Cuttlefish]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Whoa!  Is there any reason to believe he's going for the West Coast as opposed to Pearl?  My money would be on the latter.  Or, possibly, if the TF heads SE, then Australia could be a target.  You get boukoup reinforcements in the USA.  It'll be alot easier to defend the USA with what you would have coming, than to defend Pearl if you weaken it.

Agreed. Check out the rules for the reinforcements you get immediately if he sets foot anywhere on the West Coast. If he is going for Hawaii you can't afford to fatally weaken the place; even if you can't stop him from taking it you need make him pay as high a price as possible.

Remember the advice from "Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy", and don't panic!

[dennishe]

If he takes pearl, he will loose the war. He needs oil. There is no oil at pearl. It will only cost him a lot of his supplies, fuel, ships, planes and troops.
I'm not withdrawing everything from PH. I'm planning to withdraw one division of 4. Further I'm pulling the Americal and 2nd USMC divisions back. There at Canton and Pago Pago. He can't take OZ without taking Rabaul and PM first. If he goes there, I have a lot of time to reinforce OZ. In addition, he cannot do anything with OZ if he does not have DEI.
Marky has a very short term strategy. He needs to finish this war before he runs out of oil and resources.

[2ndACR]

I have never seen anyone take the West Coast. The few (very, very good) players that have tried, could not do it and they were virtually destroyed in the attempt.
 
I would sit back and wait. Continue building up Java and ship as many engineer units as you can, build every base to fort 9. Make sure every base has at least 80 AV in it to prevent para attacks. But, with one full division in Batvia, 1 in Soerbrea, you can break the other into it's 3 regiments to help garrison bases. Personally, I would round up the Aus regiments that are scattered about and use them. Keep the 3rd Div in a central base to counterattack any landing.
 
Keep fortifying South Pac. Watch for moves toward New Zealand. That allows him to really cut off OZ and gives him a repair yard there that once taken, he can expand. I personally think he is screwed.

[dennishe]

As long as I hold DEI, there is no reason for him to cut of OZ. I can get lots and lots of resources, fuel, oil and supplies from DEI to OZ. Cutting OZ only makes sense, when he has DEI.
So far I'm just sending cargo TFs to Canton, Pago Pago and PH. I can choose later to move troops around. I have the time. His AKs are still loading.

[2ndACR]

True, but New Zealand in IJN hands can make life very difficult for you. Especially with the loss of your CV's. Once Betty's are in place, it gets very dangerous to try to retake it. He can hold it with 3-4 brigades and ship everything else back to the DEI. Granted, he will butcher most of them taking it. And loose a slew of ships.
 
I think he is toast myself. I have tried a late March 42 invasion of Java and never even got a foothold on the place. I lost roughly 4 divisions to the attempt. Destroyed, gone. Every ship sent to rescue them failed and was sunk in the attempt. Now, I make dang sure to grab a base in Dec 41 and try real hard to have a divsion on the ground the 1st week of Jan. If not sooner.

[dennishe]

Fortress Java is in place. I have 300k supplies at Soerabaja and 3 full size divisions, an aviation regiment and its original regiments. In addition I'm replacing some more Dutch CD and INF troops. I will place them at Kragen. AI always seem to land troops here. Java will be a hard nut to crack.
Marky's whole strategy doesn't make sense. The more I think about it. It only makes (a little) sense if he was planning to go for the west coast all the time. Anyway lets see what he is going to do.

[Canoerebel]

If I were the Allies and noticed the Japs loading a MEGA invasion TF under the circumstances you describe, I'd rate the likely targets:  Pearl Harbor - 85%, West Coast - 5%, Australia - 5%, India - 5%.  I'd give a little thought to the latter three - just sort of a, "What will I do if he heads to the USA/Australia/India? 

What would have my stomach in knots would be Pearl Harbor unless I was dead certain I had an attack-proof defense.  If I didn't have that, I'd be working on it ASAP.  I'd have maximum mines in the harbor (33,000 IIRC).  I'd have sub pickets and perhaps some merchants or low-value MSW and patrol craft out to the west to provide a warning.  I'd want my airfields in optimum shape, with several auxilliary fields at nearby islands.  I'd probably want a stout surface combat TF with subs and PTs to contest the sea at Pearl (knowing that my combat ships would be hit hard, but I'd be willing to take punishment if I could dish it out and disrupt the enemy's operations somewhat).  I'd be sure I had plenty of supplies on hand and adequate HQ and that all my units were fully prepped.

Then I'd look at his strike against one side of my map as an opportunity to hit him far away.  I think your idea of expanding on you DEI holdings is a good one, but I don't think I'd go as far as the Mariannas (yet).  I'd concentrate on building a bullet-proof defense of the DEI - transfer more units and supplies there! - and expanding my perimeter a bit to pick off some tasty targets (Kendari?  Balikpan?  Kuching? etc.) to worry my opponent.  When your opponents starts gnawing his fingernails over the havoc your playing in a critical area, you're on your way to seizing the initiative.  But don't stick out your neck until your POSITIVE he's heading to Pearl or the USA.

Have fun!

Edited to ad: You may know all this, but I wanted to try to cover everything rather than omitting something important.