Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel

[Canoerebel]

3/1/42 to 3/3/42
 
KB:  To answer trollelite's question, I don't know if every Jap fleet CV was there - the only confirmed sighting that I got was Akagi.  But from the number of planes launched, it was clear that it was all - or nearly all - of them.  Too, John mentioned in an email that he had at first detailed 1/2 of the KB to head south to intercept my ships, but when he saw a Seagull recon plan he decided "to send them all."  After sinking Enterprise and Lexington on February 28 (ouch, it hurts to think about it), John divided the KB into two divisions, one heading west chasing US ships heading for NZ (on the 3rd, the Japs caught and sank a DD).  The second division headed east.  On the 1st, it sank four already crippled CAs and CLs.  Since then, it has disappeared, seemingly leaving behind five or six more damaged CA/CLs.  I figure John is sprinting toward Bora Bora and Papete hoping to hit my remaining CVs.  I still have a few transports unloading at these two island.  Most of my shipping has fled - a small contingent heading due north, the bulk (including Yorktown and Saratoga) moving east toward the southern Panama City channel.  I'm low on fuel, but about to rendezvous with a bunch of loaded TKs.  So my CVs should get away unless an unforeseen problem develops.
 
SoPac:  Most of a RCT and all of an EAB unloaded at Bora Bora; part of a RCT (about 90 AV) and a base force (90 aircraft support) unloaded at Papete along with a squadron of 72 Warhawks. This will have to due until the KB clears out.  John didn't bring enough to take Tongatapu.  He'll have to reinforce his invaders, I think.  The Japs have abandoned Pago Pago (for now at least).  Part of a RCT has loaded on APs at Pearl Harbor and is heading for Palmyra.
 
Australia:  The Japs have 25 units at Wyndham.  I wonder if John intends to move on Darwin over land as opposed to a seaborn assault?  He's bombing my troops at Katherine.  I have an Aussie division there digging in - forts are at 1.  I have strong enough units at Alice Springs and Daly Waters to resist any assault by paratroops, but Tennant Creek is open.  If John drops there I'll lose my supply line.  I'll give this some thought.
 
DEI:  The Allies evacuated Soerabaja except for the static CD force.  The Japs took the city on the 1st.  The final outpost is Malang with an AV of nearly 600 and 6 forts.  The Japs are cleaning up the remaining outposts in Borneo, landing at Bandjermasin and about to move on Balikpan.  O-24 sinks an AP near Balikpan on the 3rd.  One of the few bright spots for the Allies is the list of Jap APs sunk - it's enormous.  Surely John's ability to move troops has been adversely affected.
 
Malaya: The Wonder-Brits in the mountains continue to withstand every overwhelming attack launched, including 75:1 on the 1st and 32:1 on the 3rd.
 
Burma:  The Japs don't have enough to take Meiktila (yet).  No sign of a seaborn end run yet.
 
India:  I-166 sinks an AK near Trivandrum on the 1st.
 
China:  John has moved a division out of Nanching on the road to Changsha, but ran into a larger force of Chinese.  I'm sending reinforcements forward from Changsha to see if I can push the Japs back into Nanching.  John has two units that moved out of Canton 120 miles toward Kanhsien.  The Chinese cut them off by advancing several units toward Canton from Wuhan.  I don't know what's going to develop with regard to either of these situations, but I suspect they will turn into meeting engagements.
 
 
 
 

[Canoerebel]

3/4/42 to 3/11/42
 
The Post Lex and Ent Pacific:  I've spent the last week (in game time) trying to get a handle on the situation in the Pacific.  John controls the sea lanes to NZ and Australia.  There is no  safe way to send supplies, fuel, or reinforcements as long as the KB is parked at Suva or anywhere else it can leap south to interdict my transports.  I do have a toe-hold in Bora Bora and Papete that I hope to build, but right now it seems that John could choose any major target in the Pacific and take it - with the exception of Pearl Harbor.  But he can't take them ALL, so I've got to build up those that I can and hold on until enough reinforcements arrive to level the playing field a bit.
 
Aleutians:  The Japs begin landing at Umnak Island on the 7th.  I have a RCT and a BF defending the island, but the Japs can reinforce at their pleasure, so I think Umnak will fall soon.  A 0:1 deliberate attack on the 9th costs the Japs 713/20 to 107/7.  This invasion leaves Anchorage and Kodiak - both held by RCTs and some support units - as the last Allied bastions.  I'll soon have enough aircraft based here to make a difference, but my hold on Alaska is none to secure.
 
CenPac:  In addition to Pearl Harbor, Johnston Island is strongly defended.  I doubt John will come after it.  A RCT just landed on Palmyra, but that island is far out in Indian Country and isn't secure.
 
SoPac:  The Allies still hold Pago Pago.  Betties from Suva have been bombing regularly.  As noted previously, Bora Bora has an RCT and an EAB.  A base force will arrive shortly.  Papete has part of a RCT, an entire BF, and an EAB on the way.  The remaining US CVs (Yorktown, Saratoga, and Hornet) are in the channel to Panama City.  TKs and AKs are moving to and from BB and Papete - they are in harm's way.  The Japs reinforced their landing at Tongatapu and took the atoll on the 6th.
 
NZ:  In a bit of a surprise, John sent both KB divisions west toward New Zealand.  They tracked down and sank my fleeing DDs (at least 10 or 15).  But by heading west they let go the moderately damaged CAs and CLs that were moving east.  Some five or six of them survived the carnage and are heading to Papete or Panama City.  I received Sig Int that South Seas Detachment is prepping for Gisborne on NZ's north island.  I'm sending the 5th RCT from Auckland to Gisborne (most of it, that is - a small part of the 5th ended up on the south island when the troop transports were fleeing the KB quite some time ago).  The Japs took Norfolk Island.  A strong bombardment TF including BB Kirishima hit Auckland on the 6th, causing little damage.
 
Oz: Minelayers have been working steadily and Melbourne and Sydney.  Both ports have well over 7,000 laid to date.  Still no sign of an invasion at Darwin.  But neither are the massed Jap troops at Wyndham moving overland toward Katherine and Darwin yet.  Jap aircraft based in Australia and Koepang are regularly bombing both cities. 
 
DEI:  Bandjermasin and Malang are still holding.  The latter has an AV of about 600 with 7 forts.  A deliberate attack at 0:1 on the 6th results in 1769/73/1 to the Japs and 258/6/2 to the Allies.  O-19 torpedoed an AK near Koepang on the 4th; O-24 put 3 TT into an AP near Bandjermasin the next day.
 
Malaya:  Two of the three isolated Brit units surrendered, but the third continues to hold against unceasing shock attacks at odds like 105:1 and the like.This little affair means nothing, but it's funny to watch.
 
Burma:  Two Jap divisions have been unable to boot the Allies from Meiktila.  A 0:1 deliberate attack on the 4th costs the Japs 847/22/1 to 463/16.  The defenders won't hold much longer, but both Lashio and Mandalay will be strongly held.
 
India:  Quiet here except for Jap subs making nuisances of themselves at Karachi.  I-164 torpedoes an AK on the 6th.  I-166 gets hammered by ASW on the 9th.
 
China:  The Chinese launched a 6:1 shock attack against a Japanese division and mixed regiment 60 miles west of Nanchang and sent them back into the city.  Losses were 481/31/1 (Japs) to 568/29 (Chinese). 
 
Philippines:  The Allies still hold Bataan, Manila, and Clark with most of their strength concentrated at Clark (AV about 900).  A 0:1 deliberate attack at Clark on the 6th costs the Japs 2405/68/4 to 749/18/4.  The plucky PT squadron tangled with a unescorted convoy on the 4th, torpedoing an ML (which later sank) and putting two into an AP.  One of the PTs is sunk by a DD/CL TF on the 10th.  Porpoise puts a fish into an AK on the 7th and takes moderate damage to depth charges.

[Canoerebel]

3/12/42 to 3/14/42
 
Where will the Jap juggernaut strike next?  These three days are relatively quiet, with no major Japanese pushes anywhere.

Aleutians:  The Japs continue to bombard Umnak Island.  The garrison is holding, but supplies are running low.  I have enough political points to move the army division in Seattle to Kodiak or Anchorage, but I want to wait a little longer so that I don't leave myself with zero points.

CenPac:  With Pearl seemingly secure, the Allies are building the airfield at nearby Lihue, dropping off more supplies at Johnston Island (which is stout), and sending supplies and a field artillery regiment to Palmyra, which now has 1000+ mines, a RCT, and the usual base force.

SoPac:  A base force is about to land at Bora Bora with a coastal AA unit a few days behind.  An EAB has begun unloading at Papete.  Supply and fuel transports are also in the process of unloading.  Americal Division is on transports that are in the channel south of Panama City and will be in a position to make a sprint for Bora Bora in perhaps ten days.  I'll probably have to send one AP at a time rather than risking a distastrous encounter with a surface combat TF or the KB.  I have little defensive capability down here right now.

NZ:  Nothing happening at the moment, but I think this will be John's next big target.  The only thing I can do is shift some troops from Australia over to NZ, but I'm not sure I want to do that.  Australia itself is fairly vulnerable.

Oz:  The Japs are still inside their permiter, bombing Darwin and Katherine and reconning some of the interior bases.  When does John make a move here?

DEI:  Bali falls on a shock attack on the 14th.  Malang continues to hold.

Malaya:  The isolated Brit forces in the mountains finally surrender on the 14th.  Theirs was a remarkable three month stand against overwhelming odds.  The surrender frees up two Jap tank regiments and a division to head elsewhere - I presume to Meiktila.

Burma:  The standoff at Meiktila continues.

India:  Quiet here.  The 2nd UK Division just loaded on transports at Aden for Karachi.  After landing, this unit will likely head to the southern interior of India to serve as a reserve force.  I'm still not sure whether the main Jap thrust will come via land (Mandalay or Akyab) or by sea.

China:  Quiet.

Philippines:  The standoff at Clark Field continues, although I've ordered one beat up unit that was prepped for Bataan to return to that fortress.  That will weaken my AV at Clark by about 100.  Supplies are running low at Bataan, but still plentiful at Clark and Manila.  A Jap CL/DD force eliminated the last three PT boats at Lingayen on the 13th.  Those boats did yeoman service in their day.

[Canoerebel]

3/15/42 to 3/18/42
 
Aleutians:  A Mini-KB has taken station SE of Anchorage, probably to block Allied reinforcements to Alaska.  The Japs took Umnak Island on the 17th.  That means the Allied defenses in Alaska consists of a RCT in Kodiak and another at Anchorage.  I have enough PP now to transfer an army division in Seattle from West Coast to Northern command, but no way to safely transport the troops to Alaska.
 
CenPac: Quiet in this area as the Allies continue to slowly build up Palmyra.
 
SoPac:  The Japs have taken Wallis Island and seem to be moving on the two islands west of Pago Pago.  I've been surprised that John hasn't molested my recent efforts to reinforce and supply Bora Bora and Papete.  Two coastal AA units just landed at Bora Bora.  Both BB and Papete have base forces that can handle 90 aircraft.  I've loaded the 11th Combat Engineers on an AP at Panama City, destination possibly Bora Bora.  Americal Division continues to move south of Panama City and is headed for BB or Papete.
 
NZ:  Quiet right now.
 
OZ:  No changes - John continues to bomb Darwin and Katherine.  His 3 BB bombardment TF left the area to work over Malang.
 
DEI:  Malang continues to hold.  A deliberate attack on the 15th at 0:1 forts 7 cost the Japs 830/68/1 to 294/10/1.  Thereafter, John increased his aerial bombing campaign and sent in the BB TF.
 
Burma:  On the 18th, the Japs got a 2:1 at Meiktila and forts fell from 2 to 1.  Casualties were 414/16 to 142/7.  I've ordered my units to retreat toward Mandalay.  Five Chinese divisions and an HQ are at Lashio with forts 2.
 
PI:  I transfered a small B-17 squadron from Kunming to Manila on the 16th and it hit some shipping at Zamboanga.  The following turn I sent in 32 P-40s, but the ambush got turned around.  I lost most of my aircraft to a massive Japanese bombing and fighter sortie on the 17th.  A deliberate attack at Clark Field on the 16th at 0:1 odds and forts 2 didn't accomplish anything.  With the Jap bombers changing their focus to Manila, the engineers were able to work at Clark again, raising forts to 3.  Supplies are still good at Clark and Manila.  The Japs are about to take Naga (SE of Manila).  If that force is strong enough to threaten Manila (which currently has a 300 AV), I may have to withdraw the Clark troops to Manila for the final stand.
 
India:  2nd UK Division on the way to Karachi from Aden.
 
China:  Quiet here at the moment.
 
Game Status:  John has nearly a 3:1 lead now.  When the Philippines fall, he'll have more than that.  I've got my work cut out to stave off an auto-victory, but at least I have 8 months to get things going in a positive direction.  Once the multitude of Seabee units arrive, and once the forts at critical bases reach 9, I can start building up some ports and airfields and that will give the Allies quite a few points.  I'll be out of town a few days so the next report won't be until early next week.
 
 

[ny59giants]

I just asked Brian about doing his mod on a RHS level map (prefer level 7, but think level 6 would be enough). I think you might have sent your CV's the long way home if a shipping channel was available for you.

[Alfred]

Canoerebel,
 
Strategic assessment
 
I think you are wise to not move Australian units to shore up the defence of New Zealand.  Save those PP for rescuing Dutch and USAFFE units and transporting them to safety in Australia.  Also the defence of Anchorage is more important than New Zealand - if necessary move overland from West Coast to Anchorage.
 
Rationale
 
1.  As long as Anchorage/Aleutian bases remain in Allied hands, you can threaten the flank of any Japanese assault on Hawaii.  At this stage, having recently lost Lex and Ent, you are not really in a good position to frontally oppose a major, properly planned, Japanese invasion.  Pearl Harbor may be well defended, but are Hilo or Lahaina similarly defended.  Read Amiral Laurent's AAR for a well planned and executed assualt on Hawaii.  You need to be able to also threaten his lines of communications via flank attacks.  For this you need to retain something in Alaska.
 
2.  Japan does not need to conquer New Zealand to cut the supply lines to Australia from the West Coast.  He has sufficient bases in the south Pacific now to do so.  Again if he is determined to conquer New Zealand, it is unlikely that you can stop him, even if you reinforce with Aussie units.  New Zealand lacks both the indigenous supply capacity and maneouvring room of Australia.  Unable to resupply New Zealand, Aussie troops sent to New Zealand would eventually starve and be destroyed whereas if kept in Australia, they can retreat to another reasonably well supplied base.
 
3.  New Zealand confers little benefit to Japan. Australia has decent resource/oil/industry (the latter for Japanese strategic bombing VP) for Japan to consider, whereas the same is not true for New Zealand.  Norther Australia under Japanese control safeguards the SRA from Allied 4E attacks.  Northern Queensland can, through attrition via 4E attack weaken Japanese materiel in New Guinea/Solomons area.  New Zealand airfields do not promise any similar advantages.  A Japanese occupied New Zealand means his supply lines through the Solomons and New Caledonia are more vulnerable to Allied counterattack.
 
4.  Japan gains a lot of VP from destroying Allied LCU.  Limit his gain by rescuing units from DEI and the Philippines.  By transporting them to Australia, you also shore up your defences there.
 
Alfred

[Canoerebel]

3/19/42 to 3/22/42
 
After a rather brief vacation to Florida that included swimming in lovely Wekiwa Springs, I have returned rested and ready to renew my efforts to stave off an ugly defeat.  The past four game days have been relatively quiet, which has been nice, but I know John is organizing and will strike again soon.  I don't have much territory left, and most of what I do own is critical.  So the next big Japanese offensive or offensives should really create pressure on the Allies.
 
Small Craft:  O-24 put 3 TTs into an AK in the Straits of Malacca on the 19th, and Sailfish put a TT into an AP east of Singapore on the 22nd.
 
Aleutians:  The Mini-KB pulled back a bit and I've lost track of it, although a Jake sighted a US sub due south of Anchorage some 600 miles.  I have a few small AKS maneuvering into the area to serve as pickets.  41st Division in Seattle has been reassigned to North HQ (the political point cost was high).  One AP is loading with a contingent of troops to transport to Anchorage.  That's why those picket ships are necessary.
 
CenPac:  No signs of immediate trouble here.  The Allies continue working on mining operations at Palmyra, Johnston, Lihue, and Pearl Harbor.  I'll soon expand that to Hilo and other undefended hexes.
 
SoPac:  Allied transports have been unloading supplies, fuel, and troops at Bora Bora and Papete for quite some time.  I keep expecting the KB to show up, but no sign of her yet.  When (and if) it does, my transports will take a beating, but already a gracious quantities have been unloaded.  Jap subs at Papete haven't hit anything yet, but Glens are reporting the activity.  The Japs have landed at the island west of Pago Pago.  This will make reinforcing and resupplying that bastion hazardous.  I can't hold PP.
 
NZ:  Quiet here.
 
Australia:  Quiet except Darwin and Katherine where the Japs are actively bombing Aussie troops.  No signs of new offensive operations yet.
 
Java:  Malang continues to hold.
 
Philippines:  Back to back shock attacks on the 20th and 21st fail to dislodge the defenders.  The first comes off at 1:1 and drops forts to 2, inflicting 2730/42/7 to 1111/21/5.  The second is a 0:1 that fails to reduce forts and costs the Japs 557/12/4 to 354/11/5.  Supplies at Bataan have reached the critical stage, so I ordered two infantry units and an artillery unit to advance to Clark to bolster the defenses.  I may have to evacuate Bataan in favor of Clark and Manila.
 
Burma:  The Japs took Meiktila.  The next line of defense is Mandalay which looks plenty stout to me given what John has in the area at the moment.  He'll either have to reinforce or try an end run via invasion.
 
China:  Nothing new.
 
Points:  For the first time in the game, Japanese air losses exceed Allied - 1274 to 1269.  That trend needs to continue.  The total score is Japan 15200, Allies 5,900.
 
 
 

[Canoerebel]

3/23/42 to 3/25/42
 
Aleutians:  The Mini-KB pulled back to the west.  My picket ships are in place.  An AP carrying a section of 41st Division is half way to Seward.  A second AP, following, took 2 TTs just west of Seattle and will have to scurry back to Victoria to unload - she's in danger of sinking with 86 float damage.  A Canadian base force is about a week or ten days away from Anchorage.  When it arrives, I can substantially bolster the aircraft there.
 
CenPac:  No sign of Japanese presence or plans in this area other than a couple of subs covering Palmyra.
 
SoPac:  The ominous quiet continues here.  Most of my transports have finished unloading at Bora Bora and Papete.  Within three or four turns I'll have just one convoy left.  I still expect a sweep by the KB, but the US position here is vastly improved over what it was three weeks ago.  APs carrying Americal are nearing the mouth of one of the Panama City channels - I'll send one AP at a time sprinting for BB.  The supply situation at Pago Pago is critical.  I have a few small AKs heading that way, but this appears to be hopeless right now.
 
OZ/NZ:  No changes here.
 
Java:  Malang continues to hold.  To the north, Bandjermasin falls to a 5:1 attack on the 25th.
 
Philippines:  The Japs try back to back deliberate attacks at Clark Field on the 24th and 25th - the first comes off at 1:1, dropping forts to 1, and costs the Japs 976/38/3 to 1037/18/17; the second attack comes off at 0:1, doesn't affect forts, and cost the Japs 779/18/21 to 530/7/4.  The reinforcements from Bataan have arrived, so the Japs should get a bit of a surprise when the next attack occurs.  Am I making a mistake by holding on to Clark?  Should I retreat the units to Manila?  I'm unsure, but I'm going to try to hold a little while longer.  Supplies at Clark and Manila are fine.
 
Burma:  The Allied line at Akyab/Mandalay/Lashio is pretty much in place.  What is John's plan here???
 
India:  ASW sink I-164 at Bombay.  I think John has lost 9 subs now.  I've lost one.
 
China:  Quiet here except a dogfight over Changsha on the 24th.  The Japs lose a Zero, 8 Oscars, and 2 Lilies.  The Allies lose 3 P40E, 2 P40B, and a couple of Chinese bombers.
 
Situation:  John is doing a good job disguising his intentions.  I don't know where his next big push (pushes?) will come.  Could be India, Burma, Australia, NZ, Bora Bora/Papete, Palmyra, Aleutians.  I think Hawaii is a long shot.

[Canoerebel]

3/26/42 to 3/30/42
 
SoPac:  The long-expected attack by the KB materialized on 3/29/42.  PBYs gave me a day's warning, which allowed several convoys - including the first AP carrying an element of Americal Division - to reverse course and sprint toward safety in the Panama Canal channels.  A Jap surface combat TF caught and sank to TKs at Papete while the KB hammered an AK TF at Bora Bora, sinking five over two days.  The Japs also sank two PTs at BB, but a Jap DD took a torpedo.  Bad weather seems to be hampering Jap recon, but if John pushes the KB to the SE, E, NE, or N he can still catch several fleeing convoys.  On the 26th, the Japs seized an unoccupied Raratonga.
 
CenPac:  I-1 put a TT into an ASW DD at Palmyra, but a reinforcement convoy unloaded an artillery regiment. 
 
Aleutians:  By the 30th, what appears to be two stout Jap convoys are between Alaska and Seattle - the one furthest west includes CVs; the one to the east probably does too.  Several troops transports carrying elements of the 41st Division ordered back toward Seattle.  Several others, much further north, will make the run toward Seward.
 
NZ:  Quiet.  An AK from OZ is unloading supplies at Wellington while another is moving toward Auckland.  Several TK convoys are moving along the south edge of the map from Panama City to NZ and are SW of Bora Bora.  The KB can catch them if it heads that way, but that's just a risk I've taken.
 
OZ:  Status quo in Australia with frequent bombers raids against Darwin and Katherine.  No idea yet when John will move on Darwin.
 
DEI:  The garrison at Malang holds strong, withstanding a 0:1 shock attack (7 forts) on the 27th.  The Japs lose 3459/70/2 to 248/10.  John gnashes his teeth in an email message.  On the 27th, recon aircraft from an isolated airfield on Sumatra sight a Jap CV TF off the south coast of Sumatra.  Is a Mini-KB heading for Ceylon or India?
 
Philippines:  A shock attack at Clark on the 28th reduces forts to zero and costs the Japs 3519/57/10 to 930/28/6.  Another shock attack the following day costs the Japs 339/8/10 to 630/16/4.  The Japs resume bombarding on the 30th.
 
Burma/India:  The Jap division across the river from Mandalay hasn't made a move yet.  John is regularly bombing Akyab.  Allied AV at Mandalay is 1000 with forts 7.
 
China:  Quiet here.
 
Small Craft:  RO-34 sinks AK Don Isidro near Kodiak Island on the 28th and I-3 puts a TT into an AK near Los Angeles on the 30th.
 
US CVs:  The three surviving flattops are at Panama City and will soon move to the West Coast to upgrade.
 
Situation:  John has the ground troops and CV power to move at will in the Pacific and pick off nearly any Allied "fortress" he chooses.  The question is whether his loss of APs has affected his ability to transport troops and also whether he's low on fuel - the Jap "empire" has expanded so far, and the KB has been so active, that he may be having some logistical problems.  Too, I believe the Jap invasion bonus is about to end, as will the Zero bonus at the end of April IIRC.  For the foreseeable future, the Allies will concentrate on buidling up defenses at Palmyra, Bora Bora, and Papete.  Alaska will also receive alot of attention. 

[ny59giants]

Glad to see your game progressing. [:)]
 
John is extending at rapid rate which means he may end up with too much to defend in depth later on.  Are you using your large fleet subs to evac LCU's from Luzon?? I would be doing so with them at full speed while he is busy elsewhere.
 
Reading his AAR against Mandrake, it seems to me he doesn't like to play defense much and wants to be on the offensive whenever possible. The question for both of us, is how to use that against him??  It will take some time, but hopefully, we can come up with a good gameplan. [;)]

[Canoerebel]

I'm not evacuating anything from Luzon - other than aircraft.  I don't want to weaken my defenses, and losing units is historical, so I just take some lumps in the PI, Singapore, and DEI.  I'll reevaluate this practice as I gain more experience, but I'll stick to it for this game.
 
You're right about John preferring the offensive and also taking alot of forward territory so that his resources will be stretched pretty thin.  I don't see any realistic way to go on the offensive right now, but the time will eventually arrive.  Right now I'm too weak and he's too strong, so I've got to firm up my defenses where I can and avoid any more catastrophic losses. 
 
I'm following your AAR too, so best of luck.

[ny59giants]

I usually only take the large aviation support units, naval HQ (doesn't respawn), and some engineer units. If possible, the single Marine RCT. In games to date, I feel the Allies are short of aviation support for some time and I need everyone I can get.
 
IMO, I try to take the whole unit whenever possible and not just one shipload. Thus, multiple trips to get the unit out. The American fleet subs can either do evac or minelaying until the defective torpedo problem is fixed.
 
Its back to my game as John just captured Christmas Island. Thank god for RHS level 7 maps and the shipping channels. I kind of wish you had them for your game as I think you would have taken the long way to the WC vs running the guantlet with your CV's. Brian might try putting his mod on level 6 or 7 maps after the Matrix update next month.

[Canoerebel]

3/31/42

As March '42 comes to an end, Japanese carriers seem to be playing Marco Polo - feeling blindly around the seas looking for victims that may succeed in eluding detection or destruction.

Alaska: The western Japanese TF is moving west while the eastern TF has disappeared somewhere in the ocean NW of Seattle and Vancouver. The former doesn't appear to be a threat at the moment and the latter would seem to only be a threat if it moves far to the south to strike shipping entering or leaving San Francisco. At the moment, therefore, this area looks okay. Two more transports carrying elements of 41st Division will arrive at Whittier (not Seward, as I've stated in previous posts) over the next few days.

SoPac: Similar events are occuring down around Bora Bora. One stout TF is moving west while the other, located east of Papete, is moving east. But at the moment neither seem to be a threat to the plentiful Allied transports that fled north and east. Those that went east are nearing the Panama Canal channels. Hopefully John will soon tire of a patrolling a region that must seem barren to him at the moment. Once he vacates the area the transports carrying Americal Division will be sent to Bora Bora one at a time.

NZ: A handful of TKs carrying fuel and resources are moving between Bora Bora and New Zealand. John may have subs patroling these sea lanes and I'm wondering if he has a part of the KB stationed at Suva to swoop down on such shipping. We'll see.

Philippines: A 1:1 shock attack at Clark costs the Japs 2943/35/22 to 813/11/5. The adjusted AVs are now 1324 (attacker) and 848 (defender). I've ordered my Clark units to retreat to Manila. I hope John will try bombarding for a few turns to give these Allied units a chance to clear the area. I'm not positive this was the right time to leave, but I can't hold Clark forever.

Burma: Bombers strike Mandalay (for the first time IIRC). Allied fighters give better than they take.

China: A Jap deliberate attack in the hex east of Honan at 0:1 costs John 1058/33/1 to 331/3 for the Chinese. The Japs have two divisions (35, 58) and two brigades (1st, 18th). The Chinese have three corps and five guerilla brigades.

[Canoerebel]

4/1/42 to 4/4/42
 
Philippines:  After the last Jap shock attack at Clark Field on the 31st, the Allies were ordered to pull back to Manila (see last post).  I had hoped that the Japs wouldn't attack again for a few days in order to give my guys time to get out of Dodge.  I got my wish - the Japs halted all offensive activities for several days - not even bombarding - and the US and Philippino troops were clear by the 2nd.  But the Japs didn't attack and take Clark until the 4th.  I think John just didn't notice the sudden vacancy - he has about four or five email games going right now so his attention is divided.  So it's time for the final stand at Manila.  The Allied AV is about 1100, forts 3, supplies getting low (about 14,000).  Can they hold until they end of the month?
 
DEI:  At Malang, the Japs try a deliberate attack at 0:1 (forts 7) on the 3rd, losing 1519/46/1 to 446/7/1.
 
CBI/Australia:  John suffers his worst air losses of the war on the 1st.  It begins at Chungking where he sends 54 Zeros against 9 AVG, 18 P40, and 59 Chinese fighters.  31 Zeros go down as do 3 P40, 1 AVG, and 23 Chinese.  A Japanese raid at Mandalay results in the downing of 18 Zeros, 5 Betties, 7 Oscars, and 2 Lilies against 7 Hurricanes.  Finally, 86 Betties from Wyndham (way down in Australia) try a raid against Alice Springs, running into some Kitthawks.  Four Betties go down.  For the day, the Japs lose 84 aircraft to just 37 for the Allies.
 
SoPac:  The KB seems to be hanging around Papete.  I haven't sighted the ships since the 2nd, but each day since Vals have been reported.  On the 3rd, I receive very disturbing intel that an AP is carrying 131st IJA Base Force to Bora Bora.  I'm a little surprise and very worried.  After John's debacle at Pago Pago, I didn't think he'd chance another assault against an atoll - at least not without adequate recon and pre-invasion bombardments.  He's done no recon.  My guess is that this is either a feint or that he's coming with huge numbers to overwhelm any conceivable Allied defense.  I cannot imagine losing BB and Papete, but neither can I risk an all out effort to defend them.  Meanwhile, a lone AK arrived at Pago Pago with much needed supplies.  If John makes an all-out effort to seize BB, I may try to slip in reinforcements to PP.
 
Aleutians:  No changes here.  The two Jap CV forces have pulled back out of sight.  I'm sending another small troop transport convoy from Seattle toward Whittier.
 
 

[ny59giants]

Manila will do well due to the Urban bonus. [:D] In my CHS PBEM, it held out for a long time when supplies were almost dry.
 
If he takes all of French Polynesia, your supply lines to Oz/Nz will be cut and without CV's till mid - 43, he will feel safe and secure. You will need to send as much Oil from India/Aden as you can to keep Oz afloat.  Seeing this, makes me glad we did switch to RHS level 7. Those shipping channels will be a god send if he does this to me after he takes the Line Islands. [;)]

[Canoerebel]

4/5/42 and 4/6/42
 
SoPac:  Adding to the 4/3 sigint report that the 131st IJA Base Force was on an AP heading for Bora Bora, there were similar reports these two days:  On the 5th, sigint reported 132nd IJA BF was on AK Sargon Maru moving to BB; on the 6th, the report was that 133rd IJNAF BF was on AP Sanko Maru heading for BB.  Three base forces routed to Bora Bora?  Yikes!  The KB continues to hold station just NE of Papete, preventing me from trying to sneak in elements of Americal Division.  No sign of these invaders yet - they could be close by or thousands of miles away.
 
Pago Pago:  Surprisingly, the AK unloading supplies here hasn't been molested by Japanese ships, subs, or aircraft.  All three units (BF, artillery, CD) are fully supplied again and the base has a minimum amount.  Another AK is on the way.  If the entire Japanese military shows up at the Society Islands, I may have a chance to sneak some reinforcements in here.
 
NZ/OZ:  The scattered tankers heading for OZ are nearing NZ and thus far haven't been detected.  Go boys, go!  I have some more tankers - these loaded with oil - moving toward Australia from Aden, but they are just leaving the Aden channel and will be weeks in the journey.
 
Java:  The Malang garrison is holding.
 
Philippines:  No Japanese troops have arrived at Manila yet.  Suits me.  Manila's AV is about 1100.  Bataan's is about 380 with 8 forts (nearly 9 now).
 
Burma:  John's troops (one division) are sitting quietly across the river from Mandalay.  No sign that he intends to move this way over land any time soon.  I still worry about an end run by sea.
 
China:  Quiet, although John does have two units at Kanhsien and more on the way.  Due to a total absence of supplies here, I long ago evacuated the bulk of my defenders.  I have about four corps left - enough to make John fight for the city.
 
Aleutians:  I-159 put two TTs into AK Kentuckian near Port Alice.  This heavily damaged ship will return to port.  Two Jap subs are attempting to blockade Whittier now.  All the signs suggest that John may make a major move here - towards Kodiak or perhaps the mainland, but I'm not positive yet.
 
 
 
 

[Canoerebel]

4/7/42 and 4/8/42
 
Good grief, there are now Jap CVs off the SW coast of India, in the Gulf of Alaska, and at Bora Bora.  Yet despite these and other tests, I feel better about how things are going for the Allies at the moment.
 
India:  A Mini-KB shows up WSW of Tivandrum and hits three small AKs unloading supplies.  Two go down and the third has moderate damage.  A base force just arrived at Tivandrum, so I've moved some fighters and Swordfish there.  Maybe I'll get lucky.  This carrier force was first sighted off the south coast of Sumatra (see post covering 3/26 to 3/30), so I had a suspicion it was headed this way.  Accordingly, most Allied shipping moved well to the north or back to Aden.  I even sent the CVs and Force Z to Aden to make sure I didn't suffer an unpleasant surprise.  So I'm fine with this Mini-KB spending time and fuel way off here.  A large Jap TK force just left Sabang on a northwest heading, presumably to refuel the CVs.
 
Alaska:  Jap CVs have moved back into the Gulf well south of Anchorage.  I've sent my scattered shipping back toward Juneau, Seattle, and other harbors.  Here, too, there aren't many targets for the Japs.
 
SoPac:  What I believe to be the "real" KB remains posted about 120 miles NE of Papete.  Despite it's proximity to my shipping lanes, the transports making there way from Panama City to New Zealand and Australia thus far haven't been detected, so I'm continuing to send one at a time at intervals of two or three days.  At Pago Pago, the first 3K AK finished unloading and a second has arrived.  On the 8th, a wandering Allied sub sighted a Japanese transport convoy well NW of Pago Pago on a southeast heading.  Could this be the invasion force heading for Bora Bora?  Or is it a second attempt at PP?  Or is it making for a smaller island?
 
Australia:  Still no moves toward Darwin - either by land or by sea.  A second Aussie division just reached Tennant Creek.  If the Japs move over land toward Katherine, the defense will consist of Australia HQ, two divisions, a tank regiments, and a base force.
 
Philippines:  Japs haven't arrived at Manila yet, but a large force has moved to Bataan, which has an AV of about 380 and forts 8.  Bataan can't hold long, but Manila may prove a tough nut.  If Manila holds until the end of the month, that would be great. 
 
Subs:  Jap subs are a real nuisance right now, especially those positioned at Palmyra and near Seattle.  I-171 hit AK Castor near Palmyra with a TT.  Later in the day, I-169 put 3 more into Castor.  She went down, of course.  The next day, I-5 put a TT into an PSW DD at Palmyra.  My ASW force there hasn't done anything but get hit by torpedoes, so I've changed it's designation from ASW to PSW (Pro Submarine Warfare).  This DD should survive.  On the 8th, S-41 torpedoed a TK west of Manila and S-39 torpedoed an AK 60 miles to the SE.
 
US CVs:  Making their way from Panama City to San Francisco to upgrade.  But there's always the though of moving north, remaining within range of P-38 LRCAP, and taking a crack at John's Alaska CVs. 
 
 

[ny59giants]

The idea of trying to hit his CV's around Alaska sounds good. However, I would wait till they have gone through their 4/42 upgrades along with their escorts. You may need the added AA. [:D]  Let John run around and make him think you are doing a "Sir Robin" everywhere, then launch against him at a place of your choosing.
 
Don't forget to add a BB (regardless of speed) to each of your CV TF. You may need it to soak up TT if you get into trouble as you cannot afford to lose another CV or two.

[Canoerebel]

4/9/42 to 4/14/42
 
John's scattered KBs - from India to Alaska to the Society Islands - are indeed playing blind's man bluff; searching about for targets but not finding many.  Here's what happening:
 
India:  The Mini-KB that sank two AKs at Trivandrum moved off to the NW and hasn't been sighted since the 9th.  A transport convoy was seen moving west from Sumatra, and I'm wondering if John will make a play for Ceylon or Southern India, but no sign of it approaching those points yet.  There aren't any combat troops in Ceylon, but India is growing stronger.  With so many divisions and ships committed elsewhere, I doubt John can make a play for India at this point.  Ceylon yes, India no.
 
Alaska:  No sign of the Jap TF or TFs that were milling about well south of Anchorage, but another TF - this one appearing to be transports - sighte on the 14th moving east or NE in the vicinity of Cold Bay.  John "taunted" in an email that he had come up with a plan for Alaska.  Could this be an invasion force?  Jap subs sank an AK carrying an element of 41st Division.  These subs have been so effective that I'm postponing further efforts to ship 41st to Alaska.  About 1/3rd of the division is situated at Whittier.  A large B17 squadron just arrived at San Fran and moved to Anchorage.  Alaska's defense mostly rests with bombers - the B17s and large groups of B26s and B25s, and two squadrons of Bolos.
 
West Coast:  The three remaining US CVs should arrive at San Fran tomorrow.  They will begin upgrading.  All three have less than 4 SYS damage, so the upgrades should go pretty quickly.  I will consider employing these ships in Alaska.
 
CenPac:  I believe Hawaii is safe from attack.  I think John lost enough APs now and has divisions scattered so far and wide that it would be hard for him to assemble enough troops to take Pearl, which has AV of 1500 and 30,000 mines.  Hilo and Lihui (or however it's spelled) have better than 3,000 mines each.  An army division is on the way from San Fran to Hilo.  Johnston Island has stout defenses - it would almost be fun to see John try to invade.  Palmyra has a stout - but by no means bullet proof - defense that prevents anything but a major commitment from taking the island.
 
SoPac:  John sent an email with the 4/13 turn to the effect that he was ready to take another stab at Pago Pago.  I saw a convoy moving SE toward PP or BB as noted on the post covering 4/8/42, but it hasn't been seen since.  I think it's had time to reach PP, so I wonder if it's heading for Bora Bora.  There hasn't been any sigint about Pago Pago, nor anything about BB since I had those three messages about Base Forces prepping for BB about a week ago.  The KB is still stationed north of Papete.  Two PTs tried an intercept on the 10, and squared off against Kaga and 2 DDs, giving John a momentary heart attack.  Nothing came of it.  I tried it again on the 13th, against squaring off against Kaga and 2 DDs. My PTs only fire machine guns, but somehow registered a critical hit on DD Akiguma.  Vals sortied against the PTs on the 14th, sinking one but losing 7 aircraft against the P40E CAP.  A Glen sighted a transport near the southernmost Panama City channel on the 13th, so I've sent some ships scurrying back into the channel to wait for an all clear.  On the 14th, the KB was seen moving east toward that channel.
 
Australia:  The first of the tankers carrying fuel are nearing Sydney.  They departed Panama City ages ago.  Stil no signs of a concerted Jap move on Darwin.
 
DEI:  Malang continues to hold, but the end is near.  A shock attack on the 12th resulted in a 3:1 lowering forts to 3.  The Japs lost 2295/31/2 to 366/8.  Another shock attack on the 13th didn't accomplish anything.
 
Philippines:  Bataan won't hold too much longer.  A deliberate attack on the 13th at 2:1 lowered forts to 6 with the Japs losing 672/14/3 to 704/16.  Another try the next day at 0:1 cost the Japs 352/10/3 to 454/20.  Bataan should capitulate within the week.  Still no Japanese troops at Manila, where the Allied AV has climbed to about 1250.
 
Indian Ocean:  The Japs landed at Port Blair on the 14th.
 
China:  Kanhsien fell without much effort on the 9th.  Lack of supplies hampered me there from the start.  I think Changsha will be the focus of the next Japanese offensive, but Wuchow and Hengchow are certainly possible targets.
 

[bobogoboom]

John likes to give fake intel in his email. so i wouldn't read to much into alaska just look at it objectivly and see if you think it makes sense for him to make any moves