Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel

[Canoerebel]

4/15/42 to 4/18/42
 
Aleutians:  Things have quieted down for the moment, mostly because I'm not trying to get unescorted, vulnerable transports past the picket line of very capable Japanese submarines.  I've moved a Canadian Beaufort squadron to Anchorage.  My picket line of AKs well off the west coast haven't encountered hostiles.

West Coast:  Hornet, Saratoga, and Yorktown are at San Fran.  Two of them have upgraded.

CenPac:  A second FA regiment arrived at Palmyra and will begin unloading.  Other than two or three Jap subs picketing Palmyra, I haven't seen any enemy forces in this area.  Johnston and Hawaii are quiet.  A US Army division and an EAB arrive at Hilo tomorrow.

SoPac:  Jap combat ships are posted at PP, but no sign of an enemy invasion force yet.  Kates and Vals at Savaii and Betties from Tongatapu bomb the island every day.  Further south, the Jap CV TF finally moved from its position NE of Papete - going east and then south in search of merchants.  It didn't find any, although I was holding my breath.  Today it showed up near Papete again, launched another Val attack against my remaining PT boat, missed, and lost 8 dive bombers.  [:)]  This time CV Akagi is sighted.  Now a second CV force has arrived from the NW.  Will it replace the first or augment it?  It sure feels like a blockade in preparation for an invasion.  Gulp.  On the 18th, sigint received that 132nd IJA Base Force is aboard AP Hawaii Maru moving toward Savaii.  Hey, wasn't that recently seen heading toward Bora Bora?  Also, sigint reports 25th Engineers on an AK moving toward Papete.  None of this makes much difference to me - I can't do anything to aid the Society Islands with the KB there, nor can I return to Pago Pago.

Philippines:  A 5:1 shock attack at Bataan on the 16th reduces forts to 1, costing the Japs 648/18/2 to 459/16/1.  Bataan falls the next day to a 7:1.  34,000 Allied troops become POWs.  There aren't any Jap troops at Manila yet.  The Allied defensive AV is approaching 1300.  Supplies are low (about 7,000).  3 Forts.  How long can Manila hold out?

Burma:  No Japanese moves on Akyab or Mandalay yet.

India/Ceylon:  Quiet.  That Mini-KB force that struck at Trivandrum a week ago hasn't been seen again.

China:  Zzzz.

[Canoerebel]

4/19/42 to 4/27/42

So busy at work, and so busy getting and turning around turns, that I've fallen behind on my AAR duties.  The bad news is that the Japs have taken Papaete.  The good news is that in the process I learned how to correctly spell the island's name.

SoPac:  PBYs out of Papaete sighted the vanguard of the Japanese invasion fleet on the 19th, SW of Bora Bora.  The next few days, combat TFs bombarded Papaete.  Landings began on the 21st and included 21st Mixed Brigade, 12 Independent Brig., South Seas Detachment, 8th Ind. Brig., 5th Ind. Brig., 53rd Naval Guards, 8th Tanks, etc.  John brought gracious plenty - more than 80,000 troops and the KB to boot.  He launched a shock attack on the 23rd and the garrison (a RCT, EAB, and base force) promptly surrendered.  15,000 US troops became POWs.  After the island fell, John sent the KB scrambling south after a Jap sub spotted some of my transport activity.  On the 26th and 27th, the KB bit into a convoy of AKs carrying supplies.  I think seven were lost.  He missed quite a few others, including four APs carrying elements of Americal Division.  One of those APs is well to the west and should make New Zealand or Australia.  The others are well to the east and heading to Panama City.  Oscars and Zeroes based at Papaete (arg, the thought of Japanese troops here is distasteful!) struck Bora Bora on the 27th and came out on the losing end against P40s.  I have a RCT, two AA batallions, EAB, and base force at BB with forts 4 and 50,000+ supplies.  Since it is an atoll, it will exact a higher toll than Papaete, but John will take it.  Pago Pago is still in Allied hands, but without supplies.  John will take it whenever he has the troops and ships available. 

John is justifiably feeling pleased.  Example from a recent email:  "This is going to be one heck of a situation coming up [referring to the game in general].  I've got a powerful lead in VP--not that I really pay much attention to those--and am about to get Manila and the Society garrisions.  Gonna be sitting pretty for the rest of 1942.  What are your plans in NW Aussieland?  Here I come BABY!"  Man, I hope I can hold on and deliver some payback "one of these days."  As all Allied players know, it's tough sitting there taking it on the chin turn after turn after turn.

CenPac:  We're reachig the point in the game where I think I can afford to beef up the garrison at Palmyra, and I certainly want to hold the island.  I've got to hold something, don't I?  Palmyra currently has a RCT, two artillery regiments, base force, and part of a Marine CD unit with the rest to arrive soon.  Forts are 6, mines 2,000, supplies 70,000.  Johnston and Hawaii still look pretty secure to me at the moment.  Hilo has an army division, EAB, and base force.  2nd Marines are still sitting in San Diego and 1st Marines will arrive in San Fran in a few days.  I'll need to give some thought to where the first Allied offensive will go - if that day every arrives - and begin prepping those two divisions.  Having two Marine Divisions in an invasion will be a good beginning.

West Coast:  The three surviving US CVs have upgraded in San Fran.  I'd consider sending them north to the Aleutians to take on John's ships, but there hasn't been hide nor hair of them recently.

Aleutians:  No recent signs of Jap CVs or combat ships.  Plenty of subs, though, molesting points from Anchorage to Seattle. B17s from Anchorage hit Jap shipping at Cold Bay on the 24th and 25th, badly damaging two APs.

NZ:  Quiet, but vulnerable.  The strongest base is Auckland with an AV of about 660.  I'm trying to complete the ports (currently at 7) so that I can lay mines like crazy, but my engineers must be unionized.  Progress is painfully slow.

Australia:  Quiet except the NW corner where a large number of Jap units are advancing overland and nearing Katherine.  I evacuated the units from Darwin and moved them from Katherine so that they wouldn't get cut off.  John sent in paratroops to take the empty base on the 25th.  I see no reason why John won't send his troops overland to cut off my Katherine garrison.  I have a pretty stiff resistance there and at Daly Waters.  I may decide to retreat to Daly Waters.

India:  Subs reported the Mini-KB making for Singapore or vicinity, so I am sending supplies and fuel from Aden toward Australia.  John may cut them off, or the complete absence of shipping to this point (assuming he's been looking) may have misled him that I'm not using that route.  Anyhow, I hope my ships make it.

Burma:  Still no sign of a Japanese advance here.  Is John content with status quo while he concentrates on SoPac and Australia?

Philippines:  Jap units finally arrived at Manila, but so far are just bombarding.  Manila's defense is AV 1300 with 3 forts (and 97% to 4, but it'll never reach 4 now) and about 6k supplies.  It should hold into May.

China:  Quiet here too.

Score:  Ugly.  Japs 18000+ and Allies 5800.  When Manila falls, it will get uglier.   The one thing that should help a bit in the long run is that John is spread out all over the place.  He can't garrison and guard every place he holds.  He's also building everywhere - places like Raratonga, Suvaii, etc.  So, when and if I seize some Japanese territory, there will be alot to choose from and plenty of ports and airfields to work with.

[ny59giants]

Pago Pago withheld the first shock attack...barely. He at least brough a small BB TF to the island before landing. [:D][:D]  I'm wondering if he is going to go for French Polynesia sooner than later in my game. After reading your AAR and just getting into Jan 42 in mine, I'm not going back to anything less than RHS due to the shipping channels. IRL, you would shift forces down around South America and South Africa and build up Oz/Nz before launching your counteroffensive.
 
Too many experienced players like John can use the limitations of no channels or just what Andrew has to bottle up the Americans to Hawaii and the WC. The fact that you lost a few CV's make him almost unstoppable in doing this. I would send subs to BB to start evac of some fragments to bring back to WC for rebuilding. It may take about one year, but you have the time. 
 
I have yet to go through the full early months depression as the Allied players as I just try to survive. [:(]

[saj42]

The Society Islands have been a main focus in my BigB game.
I lost Rarotonga and Papaete to the IJA juggernaught (4 Divs + support) that blazed a trail across the south and south-east Pacific. My opponent really messed up the atoll invasion of Bora Bora which gutted 4 divs and 16 other units. The 2nd USMC Div and 150k+ supplies certainly helped.
The naval battles cost the US 4x CV, 3xBB and IJN 5xCV, 3xBB (Kongo class) and almost 100 other vessels).
Fortunately Bora Bora was airfield 6 already so I blasted his ships and Papaete airfield with 4e bombers (though I lost quite a few to BB Bombardments).
Six months later and after 4 months of continual air and sea bombardment I'm ready to recapture Papaete (Rarotonga is already liberated).

[Canoerebel]

4/28/42 to 5/5/42
 
After the Jap's breakneck race across the Pacific that ended with the capture of Papaete on 4/23/42, things have slowed down a bit.  Thank goodness, because I don't have much territory left to defend and need time to regroup.
 
SoPac:  The Japs haven't moved on Bora Bora yet, but continue to bomb the atoll daily and bombard every few turns.  I hope and think that John figures I've given up on slipping ships to New Zealand, because I'm continuing to do so.  The first AP carrying part of Americal Division made it to Wellington.  The second - which is following a tanker - is about due south of Papaete.  A third has just left the southernmost Panama Canal channel.  I hope I can get Americal to NZ (or possible to Australia).  That will bolster the defenses in that area.  A bit further north, I figure John will move on Pago Pago within a month or two - perhaps waiting to take Bora Bora first.
 
CenPac:  John is now reconning Palmyra and there are frequent clashes there between subs (I-5 must be captained by a gifted sailor) and ASW.  The rest of a Marine CD unit will arrive in about four days.  I'm sending an Army division there from San Fran, one AK at a time (so that I don't risk losing the whole division in the event John springs some sort of sneak attack in my rear area).   Palmyra has nearly 3,000 mines, forts nearing 7, 70K+ supplies. 
 
Aleutians:  John is probing and feinting.  I've sent several lone AKs toward Kodiak.  Each time, John sends a surface combat TF to within striking distance, only to apparently withdraw them without attacking. B-25s kept sortying against them and coming up short against a Zero cap, so I've moved those bombers back to Anchorage.
 
Australia:  The Allies have abandoned Katherine.  I was worried about the Japs cutting across country to get between Katherine and Daly Waters.  I'll probably make a stand at Daly Waters, but I doubt John will make that city a target.  If he has ideas in Australia, he's more likely to keep a stout force in the area to hold my troops in place, and to then make a flank attack by sea.
 
Philippines:  Manila holds at the moment, but a deliberate attack at 0:1 on 4/30 reduced forts to 2 and cost the Japs 4464/66/12 to 2791/61/12.  Another such attack on the 5th reduced forts to 1 and cost the Japs 1608/35/6 to 2270/47/4. Cracks in the wall....
 
India:  John has both the aggressiveness and opportunity to try something "moderate" here - such as an invasion of Akyab (or Cox's Bazaar) or even of a lightly defended Ceylon.  But if I'm any judge of what's going on (which is debatable), it's probably too late for him to mount a major operation here.  I think he's got too many ships and troops committed too far away.
 
China:  Remains quiet.

[Canoerebel]

5/6/42 to 5/8/42
 
SoPac:  A pall has settled over the Allied kingdom as yet another important base has fallen.  On the 8th, the Japanese took Bora Bora on a 6:1 shock attack.  12,300 more Allied troops became POWs.
 
Overall:  John commented in an email that the fall of Bora Bora leaves him with two remaining thorns.  I assume he means Manila and Pago Pago.  The latter should fall easily since it is out of supplies, and John is sure to bring overwhelming force considering his previous troubles there.  Manila may hold a little longer, but it too is on fumes.  The real question troubling me is whether John will be content to sit back and guard his new empire, or will turn a lustful eye at vulnerable, isolated New Zealand and Australia.  I'm not nearly as concerend about Alaska, China, and India (at the moment, anyhow).  I'm also debating whether to take a crack at an offensive in the Aleutians, or to instead bid my time and strike with overhwelming force even if it's later rather than sooner.  I recall in Uncommon Valor the general consensus among those I played with was that the Allies needed to get rolling by January 1943, but in the one game I played until the end (against Miller), I found that the Allies could easily have waited much later and still had plenty of time to roll up a victory, and by doing so wouldn't have stuck their necks out at that earlier time when there was comparative parity. 
 
India/Australia/NZ:  A Mini-KB patroling the sea lanes between India and Australia found and demolished a fleet of three tankers.  The rest of my convoys scattered.  This effectively closes off my resupply efforts from India.  I still plan to try to slip single APs to NZ from Panama City in order to move Americal Division, but it's a real gamble.  John took Katherine, but hasn't shown any designs on Daly Waters yet.  I'm moving an Aussie brigade north from Sydney to garrison Cairns.  Sydney's AV is about 1400.  That's the only city in Australia and NZ that is probably "safe" from enemy attack.
 
Aleutians:  Allied shipping is having trouble with mines and subs.  At Kodiak, I lost a DD to mines (the DD was in a convoy with a DMS) and an AK and MSW to subs.

[ny59giants]

I'm also debating whether to take a crack at an offensive in the Aleutians, or to instead bid my time and strike with overhwelming force even if it's later rather than sooner.

I would wait. If John sees you trying to make any headway, he will bring the full force of KB and Co. there to smash you to bits. I say this as I remember reading his AAR against Captain Mandrake and him looking for things to attack (even after his defeat at Perth). He seems to be a player who will avoid a defensive playing style where ever possible.

[Canoerebel]

5/9/42 to 5/18/42
 
After the fall of the Society Islands, the Japanese have been fairly quiet everywhere except northwestern Australia.
 
Aleutians:  Japs subs continue to plague Allied shipping here, sinking an MSW at Kodiak and badly damaging an AK midway between Kodiak and Sitka.  NYGiants, I believe you're right.  No need in sticking out my head here right now (even though the KB is so far away - most recently at Bora Bora - that it's no threat).
 
CenPac:  The Allies continue to work on defenses in the Hawaian Islands.  On the permiter, additional troops are landing at Palmyra and I've landed supplies at Christmas and French Frigate Shoals in preparation for commencing the build up of both of those islands.
 
SoPac:  Jap bombers continue to hammer Pago Pago. A bombardment TF on the 15th encountered mines.  CAs Chokai and Suzuya were both damaged. Quiet elsewhere.  Three lone APs carrying Americal detachments are making their way to Wellington.  The first will arrive in a day or two.
 
NZ:  If I can get Americal safely ashore, that will add a second US Army division to NZ's defenses.  I hope I'm not feeding these units into the jaws of the next Jap objective.
 
Australia: I was a bit surprised that John sent troops "up the rail line" to Daly Waters after capturing Katherine.  His force consists of three divisions (48, 18, 16), 7th Ind. Brigade, and a tank regiment.  On the 17th, he bombarded and the Allies tried a deliberate attack.  The latter came off at 0:1, but somehow the Allies inflicted 1745/75/9 to just 394/8/1.  How did that happen?  The Japs have 70,000 troops and the Allies 50,000 with two forts.  The reserve/fall-back forces include an Aussie brigade at each of Tennant Creek and Alice Springs.  I'm sending an anti-tank regiment, tank unit, and artillery unit to Alice from the coast.  I don't want to strip any further infantry, right now, as the Japs could invade. 
 
Sumatra:  Two Allied detachments continue to hold, but will fall soon.  The last of the DEI recon aircraft were moved to India.
 
Philippines:  A deliberate attack at 0:1 on the 19th cost the Japs 2352/55 to 935/49/9.  John has just bombarded since then.
 
Allied subs:  O24 put 3 TT into a troop AK in the Straits of Malacca on the 9th; Thresher torpedoed an AK NE of Suva on the 14th; Silversides torpedoed an AK at Bora Bora on the 17th.
 
 
 
 

[Canoerebel]

5/19/42 to 5/26/42
 
Australia:  More Japanese troops have arrived at Daly Waters, but John hasn't resumed attacking yet.  On the 25th, waves of Japanese fighters and bombers tangled with three squadrons of Kittyhawks.  Follow up attacks on the 26th finished off the surviving Aussie fighters.  The Japs control the skies over Daly Waters, and bombers will prevent the Aussie troops from building fortifications (currently at 2 + 86% to 3).  I'll have to monitor this situation carefully and retreat to Tennant Creek if things become hopeless.  A US sub stumbled across a Jap convoy of uncertain make up - at least four ships - NW of Perth some 600 miles.  I'm not sure what this is - possibly an invasion convoy heading for Perth, or possibly a  Mini-KB cruising the area looking for Allied shipping.  Nothing I can do about it, though.

NZ:  Four separate APs carrying Americal detachments have reached Wellington and unloaded.  Three more APs are moving down the channel from Panama City and will try to make the same run to New Zealand.  Meanwhile, two AKs (separated by about 1000 miles) carrying a field artillery regiment are currently south of Papaete making the run to NZ.

Burma:  On the turn that the Kittyhawks took it on the chin at Daly Waters, P38s exacted revenge over Mandalay.  The Allies lost 5 of 8 P38s engaged, but downed 9 Zeros, 2 Bettys, 5 Oscars, 1 Sally, and a Lily.  The Japs show no signs of aggression here, but do appear to be gathering strength 120 miles east of Mandalay.

India:  Quiet right now.

China:  Quiet.

Philippines:  Japs are bombarding Manila daly.  The garrison should fall fairly soon now - I'm guessing three days to two weeks.

Aleutians:  Lots of Jap subs in the Gulf of Alaska, but no signs yet of renewed Japanese offensives here.  An MLE will arrive in San Fran shortly, so I'm sending ML Oglala and a few DMs to San Fran from Pearl.  These will combine and head to Anchorage, accompanied by a stout surface combat TF and perhaps covered by the US CVs.  I want to get the mine layers safely into position, but I don't really want to commit a major combat TF to the area long term.  I prefer to defend this area using mines and bombers.

CenPac:  Seabees will arrive at French Frigate tomorrow; a CD unit is unloading at Christmas Island, with a Seabee unit a few days behind and an EAB not fare behind it.  A RCT is unloading at Palmyra, with about half of 7th Division now in place there.  These will likely be the last two major combat units at this post - the defense consists of a CD unit, 2 RCT, 7th Division, and two artillery units.

SoPac:  The only remaining Allied outpost is Pago Pago.  John is bombing the island into the stone age, but the defenses are continuing to exact a toll - two DDs have hit mines, shore guns have damaged or sunk a handful of MSW, and flak damages or downs aircraft every turn.  Pago Pago is toast, but the island has really been a thorn in the Jap's side.

Situation:  The score is currently 19,500 to 6,500.  The gap will grow when Manila falls.  It's late May and still months before the Allies get good combat aircraft like Spitfires and B24s where they are needed.  It's hard to defend Australia with Wirraways and Hudsons.

[Canoerebel]

Received this email from my opponent:
 
"[...June ....will be decision time!  When Manila falls soon, I will have nearly 200,000 highly trained troops available for operations.  Options as I see them:
1.  Aleutians
2.  New Zealand
3.  NW Aussieland
4.  Burma/India
5.  Palmyra/Christmas
Note that I not list garrison duty.  There will be one more major offensive for Japan.  I simply have to decide where and how much gain I can get from it..."
 
No surprises there, although I would have added one further possible target:  Hawaii/Johnston.
 
I am least concerned about India/Burma, Aleutians, and Palmyra/Christmas.  The units are in place or readily available to deal with Japanese moves in these areas.  I am most concerned about Australia and New Zealand.
 
Should I concentrate my forces to better defend Australia, or is it better to make John fight for both?
 
The US has managed to put a RCT (5th) and an Army division (40th) in NZ, with a second Army division (Americal) at about half-strength.  Should I move those units to Australia, or should I leave them in place to make NZ as tough as possible?  I'm leaning toward the latter.
 
It will take John a little while to marshall his forces and move forward, and I think KB will be resting and refitting for awhile.  Would it be worthwile to send a large TF with suppies and perhaps some troops from India to Australia, covered by the Royal Navy CVs?  John has been patrolling the sea lanes with a Mini-KB, but I don't believe it's an overwhelming force.  Were I to do this, I would send a large but relatively empty TF in advance, hoping to draw the attention of any Jap CVs, thus enticing the Japs to spend some sorties.  Next would come the CVs, followed by the real transports.
 
Looking toward the autumn/winter and the first real Allied efforts to take the offensive, I may do some major island skipping and head somewhere in the interior - somewhere John might not expect and a place that would give the Allies a head-start on hitting the Japanese vitals.  I have some ideas, but each plan depends on what happens between now and then.

[ny59giants]

Options as I see them:
1. Aleutians
2. New Zealand
3. NW Aussieland
4. Burma/India
5. Palmyra/Christmas

1. Aleutians - He already has a strong presences there, so If he goes here he will be placing his forces very close to the main USA bases. I don't place this one high on the list as you will eventually overwhelm him here. There is also no economic benefit (no Oli/Resources).

2. New Zealand - He has already cut off your main LOC with USA by taking French Polynesia. This serves no logical purpose from his current position.

3. NW Ausssieland - A possibility, but what does he gain unless he tries to take all of Australia??

4. Burma/India - My number one choice. I've taken over a PBEM game at 5/31/42 with Big B's against Damian (N01487477). He had done a small hook and taken Akyab, Cox Bazaar and Chittagong before I took over. His previous opponent had forward depolyed too deeply into Burma, but I'm trying to extract them back as he has landed on Ceylon and the very SW corner of India. I thought it was too late to do this, but I may be wrong. He also gains more from an economic point of view.

5. Palmyra/Christmas - This would isolate Hawaii more, but he could probably do this without the whole weight of his Luzon forces.

So my order would be: Burma/India, Australia, Aleutians, New Zealand, and then Palmrya/Christmas last. John likes to think big. [:D]

[Canoerebel]

NY, you're right, John does like to think big.  I think he's given to "trophy hunting."  I don't believe he will evaluate his options like many would.  That is, I think he's drawn to doing something gaudy even if it doesn't add resources or maximize his strategic position. 
 
So, while NZ doesn't offer much strategically or economically, it is an enticing trophy he can add to his shelf.  That and the fact that he missed his chance at it in his game with CapMandrake makes me think it is the most likely target.
 
The target that most worries me is Australia, but I can't figure out John's reference to "NW" Aussieland.  He already owns it - from Broome to Darwin to Katherine.  But in his game with CapMandrake he seems to frequently get his directions Down Under confused, referring to Perth as NE Australia and the like.  I think he must have one of those funky upside down perspective world maps.  So when he says NW Australia I think he means either Perth or the Cairns/Townsville regions.
 
John has never shown much interest in Burma, India, and China judging by the AARs for his games.  Doesn't mean he can't develop an interest now, just that he there's something in him that lusts after using the Imperial Navy on a grand scale.  Too, sending his units that way takes away from his ability to protect the vast area he has conquered in Cen and SoPac.  I'm not ignoring this threat, and I have many units dispersed behind the lines, so I'm prepared should he move on India.
 
If he comes for Palmyra, more power to him. This is the one exposed place I've been able to adequately prepare.  He can take it, but it would require an all-out commitment and exact a high toll.
 
I rate the likelihood of John's targets:  NZ, Australia, Calcutta/Diamond Harbor, Anchorage, Ceylon, Bombay, Karachi, Palmyra.
 
Many of these targets will require lengthy campaigns, and we're on the eve of June '42.  If John is worried about the time factor, he may prefer something fairly quick - in that event NZ, Anchorage, and Palmyra may be his best choices.
 

[Canoerebel]

5/27/42 to 6/6/42
 
It has been a fairly quiet period as both sides prepare and launch important operations.
 
SoPac:  John sends an email with the 6/5/42 turn that "Over 140 sets of anchors rise from the depths of the harbor as the Invasion Force leaves for its well known destination."  This surely means Pago Pago, which has been reduced to rubble and won't be able to put up much of a fight this time.  But as a speed bump, Pago Pago gets top marks.  John's first invasion attempt ended way back about February, and since then he's devoted alot of aircraft and some shipping to blasting the garrison.  That's four months of attention that otherwise might have been given to Palmyra, NZ, or other important Allied bases.
 
NoPac:  A large Allied convoy escorted by three CV TFs left San Francisco on the 5th making for Anchorage.  These will be joined by several TFs out of Seattle.  Included are supplies, more than 100K fuel, minelayers, MLE, a field artillery regiment, and a base force.  I hope that I can run these TFs in without opposition and keep my CVs well back, but they are present in case John sorties Jap combat ships or CVs.  These reinforcements and supplies should really bolster Alaska's defense.  John has alot of subs working the area.  If subs are any indication of future intentions, then this is where he's coming.  ASW out of Seattle sank I-165 on the 6th.  In the game to date, the Japs have lost 12 subs, the Allies one.  The disparity is primarily because John has not paid much attention to ASW, at least to this point.
 
CenPac:  With John likely focused on Pago Pago for perhaps another week, I may have only this last window to move troops to Palmyra.  Most of the balance of 7th Division, a base force, and an AA unit, are on the way.  Christmas Island has a Marine CD unit, EAB, and Seabee.  Forts are two and I'm beginning work on the airfield.  A small base force is loading in San Fran.  John caught wind of my ships unloading at French Frigate Shoals - unfortunately, I missed the sighting reports during combat replay, so didn't notice.  He sent a CL/DD force that arrived on the 3rd and sank 4 AK.
 
NZ/Australia:  Quiet in the east half.  On the west, no sign of the Jap ships recently seen NW of Perth.  The standoff at Daly Waters continues.  The Japs bomb and bombard regularly, but without dramatic affect.  Forts have increased to 3 and the defense AV remains about 920.
 
India/Burma:  Remain quiet.
 
China:  Chinese troops 60 miles W of Canton began attacking the Japanese defenders on the 2nd.  The first came off at 1:1 and cost the Japs 594/29/1 to 2333/38.  Then the Chinese awaited the arrival of reinforcements from Wuchan.  The next attack on the 6th at 4:1 cost the Japs 1049/62/1 to 2623/17.  The Japs retreated into Canton.  I seriously doubt I have a chance to take Canton, but I'll probe a bit and see what's up.  The Chinese AV in Changsha is 9000.  I am toying with the idea of making a move on Nanchang, but haven't decided yet.
 
Philippines:  A 1:1 shock attack at Manila on the 28th costs the Japs 8292/97/7 to 1527/26/19.  Another try on the 2nd costs the Japs 10,592/71/5 to 2293/30/10.  The defense will yield very soon, but holding into June has been a big help.  By the time Manila falls and the Jap units there could load and move to a distant point like India, Alaska, or New Zealand, it should be at least mid- or late July.  Subs with moderate damage were assigned to transport parts of a base force and HQ unit to Australia.  It won't be much, but there will be seeds to grow replacements.
 
 

[Canoerebel]

6/7/42 to 6/10/42
 
Philippines:  The Allied garrison 77,000 strong finally surrenders on the 10th, after the Japanese launch an attack at 2:1.  That means John has alot of troops he can deploy elsewhere, but it should take him some time.  A tip of the hat to the defenders for keeping the Japs occupied for nearly seven months.
 
Alaska:  BBs Yamata and Haruna are the flagships of a TF that bombarded Kodiak Island on the 9th, destroying some ten aircraft on the ground.  This TF was sighted two days out, so most of the Allied ships at Anchorage weighted anchor and fled, and most of the heavy bombers at Kodiak moved to Anchorage.  Meanwhile, the large Allied convoy making for Anchorage from San Fran is about half-way there, and what I'm trying to figure out is whether Yamato is the hammer or the bait.  Is John hoping to lure in the US CVs to spring a trap with carriers of his own, or does he think the US CVs are either far away or wouldn't be committed?  I honestly don't know, but we may find out in four or five days.
 
CenPac:  Quiet here as the Allies continue to beef up Palmyra.
 
SoPac:  No sign of the Jap invasion TF at Pago Pago yet.  Scattered Allied transports continue to act like blockade runners moving from Panama City to Wellington, NZ.  Two AKs carrying an FA regiment are nearing NZ.  Two APs carrying Americal detachments have split, one moving south of Papaete, the other north.  A Glen spotted the southern one on the 6th, but so far no Jap CVs have shown up.
 
Australia:  John hasn't reinforced his troops at Daly Waters yet.  I am worried about him making an end run - especially any large-scale invasion of southern Australia (Whyalla would be a crisis).
 
India/Burma:  Remains quiet, but John is gathering units at Magwe.  Is he planning to take the slow route across the river to get behind Mandalay?
 
China:  Quiet.

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6/11/42 and 6/12/42
 
SoPac:  The Japs invaded Pago Pago on the 11th and the "bastion" capitulated that day.  The defenders were out of supplies and disrupted by months of incessant bombing. 
 
CenPac:  The Allies continue to work on defenses, especially at Palmyra, Johnston, Hilo, and Pearl.  I expect Palmyra and Christmas to get a visit soon - at least raiders of some sort.  I don't have a feel yet for whether John wants Palmrya enough to mount an invasion strong enough to take it.  SigInt hasn't ever mentioned Jap units prepping for Palmyra.
 
NoPac:  AK Si Kiang, on of three picket AKs stationed in a line south of Alaska toward Hawaii served its purpose.  A Jap CV TF or two happened across it and sank it - with about 20 Vals and about 20 Kates sortying.  That isn't a strong enough force to take on 3 US CVs.  Is this all John has?  Has he split his CVs risking defeat in detail?  Or is this just the vanguard of a much more powerful force?  These TFs are SW of the US CVs and other TFs making for Anchorage.  I'm not sure what to do - I would love to take on a relatively weak Jap CV TF, but I sure don't want to come out on the short end of an ambush.  Hmm.  A map will be posted shortly.
 
Australia:  Situation unchanged - John has 75k troops at Daly Waters, the Allies have 50k.  If he reinforces, I'll retreat to the next speed bump (Tennant Creek, which has another brigade and forts 2).  I'm worried that John's Daly Waters force is meant to attract Aussie attention and troops while he invades the southern or northeastern coast.
 
Burma:  Increase in numbers of Jap units noted and one division has moved to within 60 miles of Lashio.  A situation map will be posted shortly.  I think John will try a two-fold attack here - one meant to threaten or hit Mandalay, the second an invasion of Cox's Bazaar or Chittagong.  But I'm thankful we're nearing mid-June. I don't think India as a whole is at risk any longer.
 
China:  Quiet.  John seems to be reinforcing Nanchang and Canton (or at least shifting troops around internally to meet what he may perceive to be threats).
 
Score:  Score screen will be posted shortly.  I'm getting clobbered, but sure want to mount a comeback.  An important engagement may be near in the Gulf of Alaska.

[Canoerebel]

June 12, 1942: Jap raiders stumble across AK Si Kiang, sinking the Allied "picket" ship, but not before she telegraphed an alert.

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Here's the situation in Burma on June 12, 1942.

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Not pretty, but "I have not yet begun to fight."

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6/13/42 and 6/14/42
 
Gulf of Alaska:  John is clearly anxious for a fight, which means I'm eager to avoid one.  Recent emails:  (1) As John prepares to run the June 13 turn - "Running turn with High Expectation..."; (2) My reply (trying to remain coy like I don't have CVs in harm's way) - "I dunno, I wasn't expecting anything.  You must be on the trail hoping to close with my ships;" (3) His comment when he sends the turn:  "Not sure what I am REALLY expecting...but this turn was not it!"  I pulled my CVs to the north and he is in pursuit (I think).  In addition to the CV convoy that is SW of my CVs (but, like them, moving north), he also has a stout convoy steaming east from the vicinity of Cold Bay.  Does it too contain CVs?  Has he slipped the KB way up here?  The fact that he is chasing ME, instead of acting like I surprised HIM, leads me to believe he is seeking a clash with my CVs.  I only want to fight on my terms, so I'm trying to skedaddle, moving further east toward the inlet between Sitka and Prince Rupert.  P38s from Sitka are providing LRCAP and Prince Rupert will be able to chip in with some Kitthyhawks tomorrow or the following day.  My little expedition to reinforce Alaska seems to have blundered into a hornet's nest.  Map to follow.
 [/align]Elsewhere:  The only other major event over this two day period was a dogfight over Allied troops 60 miles outside Canton, China.  Allied fighters flying LRCAP surprised several Jap raids, shooting down 9 Zeros, 4 Nates, 10 Oscars, 4 Marys, 3 Sonias, and 3 Lilys against the loss of 5 P40Es.  On the 14th, Japs took the last Allied outpost in Sumatra. [/align]

[Canoerebel]

The dance in the Gulf of Alaska on June 14, 1942.