Findings of the Strategic bombing experiment

Gary Grigsby's strategic level wargame covering the entire War in the Pacific from 1941 to 1945 or beyond.

Moderators: Joel Billings, wdolson, Don Bowen, mogami

User avatar
RUPD3658
Posts: 6921
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2002 2:25 am
Location: East Brunswick, NJ

Findings of the Strategic bombing experiment

Post by RUPD3658 »

For those of you who do not follow the AAR "The Battle for New Jersey" we declared it a draw at the end of 1944. I took over playing both sides to see if the Allies could still win by bombing Japan's supply production and stockpiles to the point that Japan's VPs would drop significantly. These are the results of the year long (game time) experiment:

1. Japan can not be starved out: Even after having only 100 supplies being produced per day the total supply level barely dropped. Oddest of all, when supply stockpiles were targeted, the overall supply level in the empire went up. Case in point were the supply stock piles at Osaka and Amori. They had 920K and 800K respectively. Even when close to 40 supply hits were scored the supply levels did not change. I thought that maybe supplies had flowed in from othere bases but a check of the industry screen showed that the levels had not changed.

The only thing that seemd to cause the overall supply level to drop was doing nothing. When left alone, supply dropped between 10-20K per day. When bases were bombed the supply level fluctuated between dropping 5K to incresing by 10K. I thought that this may be caused by supply leeching out of LCUs but almost none were seen to be short supply. Also, this should have been a one time cause yet it happened for several months.

Anther supply odditiy was that the supply level at captured Irkustk fluctuated between 5K and 100K despite a minimal garrison. There seemed to be no rhyme or reason to how supplies were being distributed. At one point I had bombed Chungking into the red (Had I dropped nuke #3 at this point the Allies would have scored a Marginal Victory). After 2-3 weeks supplies flowed into the double the needed amount. Once I started an all out assult on Chingking by air (1000+ planes per day) the supply level did not budge.

Clearly the supply model is pooched. Hopefully this will be fixed in AE.

2. Firestorms do not work: Even with over 1000 ac attacking and scoring 2-3K manpower hits, already damaged industry was not destroyed. Fire were in the 200-300,000 level . It is possible that the only way to destroy industry is to start a fire storm when the industry is undamaged.

3. Units take forever to starve: Kwaj was out of supply for over 2 years. While some units would starve, the overall fat/disruption level of the unit barely moved. Even after 2 years the total AV had only been reduced by about 60%.

The same thing happened at Chungking and Iman. At Chungking units were cut off for nearly 2 years. Despite the influx of auto supply the units were barely effected despite daily LCU bombardment. What did seem to work was daily air bombardment but even this took several months to show a significant effect.

"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has limits"- Darwin Awards 2003

"No plan survives contact with the enemy." - Field Marshall Helmuth von Moltke
[img]https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/upfi ... EDB99F.jpg[/img]
User avatar
BlackSunshine
Posts: 363
Joined: Fri Nov 22, 2002 12:16 pm

RE: Findings of the Strategic bombing experiment

Post by BlackSunshine »

Interesting!  And everyone says this game favors the Allies [:D]
User avatar
witpqs
Posts: 26376
Joined: Mon Oct 04, 2004 7:48 pm
Location: Argleton

RE: Findings of the Strategic bombing experiment

Post by witpqs »

ORIGINAL: RUPD3658

For those of you who do not follow the AAR "The Battle for New Jersey" we declared it a draw at the end of 1944.

So, umm, you thought better of it and decided New Jersey isn't worth a fight after all? [:D]
User avatar
Charbroiled
Posts: 1181
Joined: Thu Oct 14, 2004 10:50 pm
Location: Oregon

RE: Findings of the Strategic bombing experiment

Post by Charbroiled »

ORIGINAL: RUPD3658

Oddest of all, when supply stockpiles were targeted, the overall supply level in the empire went up.

You must have been using the new "pork and beans" bombs.[:D]
"When I said I would run, I meant 'away' ". - Orange
User avatar
RUPD3658
Posts: 6921
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2002 2:25 am
Location: East Brunswick, NJ

RE: Findings of the Strategic bombing experiment

Post by RUPD3658 »

ORIGINAL: Charbroiled

ORIGINAL: RUPD3658

Oddest of all, when supply stockpiles were targeted, the overall supply level in the empire went up.

You must have been using the new "pork and beans" bombs.[:D]

In an effort to be more enviornmentally friendly I was dropping hot peppers in lieu of napalm. [8D]
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has limits"- Darwin Awards 2003

"No plan survives contact with the enemy." - Field Marshall Helmuth von Moltke
[img]https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/upfi ... EDB99F.jpg[/img]
GaryChildress
Posts: 6933
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2005 3:41 pm
Location: The Divided Nations of Earth

RE: Findings of the Strategic bombing experiment

Post by GaryChildress »

These are important findings. Have you posted them in the AE forum also? Hopefully these things can be addressed and corrected in AE. [:(]
User avatar
RUPD3658
Posts: 6921
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2002 2:25 am
Location: East Brunswick, NJ

RE: Findings of the Strategic bombing experiment

Post by RUPD3658 »

Done. Welcome back by the way. Now could you please put an end to the infernal anti-thread you started?[:)]
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has limits"- Darwin Awards 2003

"No plan survives contact with the enemy." - Field Marshall Helmuth von Moltke
[img]https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/upfi ... EDB99F.jpg[/img]
GaryChildress
Posts: 6933
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2005 3:41 pm
Location: The Divided Nations of Earth

RE: Findings of the Strategic bombing experiment

Post by GaryChildress »

Do not underestimate the power of the dark side of The Thread. [:D]
User avatar
Hortlund
Posts: 2162
Joined: Fri Oct 13, 2000 8:00 am

RE: Findings of the Strategic bombing experiment

Post by Hortlund »

Hm, I wonder if Im seeing something like this in Manilla. I have the entire allied PI-army caught at Manilla, and Ive been bombarding them daily for the past month or so, with no noticeable effect on their combat performance.
The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close.
In its place we are entering a period of consequences..
User avatar
castor troy
Posts: 14331
Joined: Mon Aug 23, 2004 10:17 am
Location: Austria

RE: Findings of the Strategic bombing experiment

Post by castor troy »

ORIGINAL: Panzerjaeger Hortlund

Hm, I wonder if Im seeing something like this in Manilla. I have the entire allied PI-army caught at Manilla, and Ive been bombarding them daily for the past month or so, with no noticeable effect on their combat performance.


I don´t know if you´re talking about our game but if so then I can tell you that my supply situation there is.... even worse as you could imagine. It´s the ground combat routine that doesn´t work, therefore those results... [8|]
herwin
Posts: 6047
Joined: Thu May 27, 2004 9:20 pm
Location: Sunderland, UK
Contact:

RE: Findings of the Strategic bombing experiment

Post by herwin »

ORIGINAL: castor troy

ORIGINAL: Panzerjaeger Hortlund

Hm, I wonder if Im seeing something like this in Manilla. I have the entire allied PI-army caught at Manilla, and Ive been bombarding them daily for the past month or so, with no noticeable effect on their combat performance.


I don´t know if you´re talking about our game but if so then I can tell you that my supply situation there is.... even worse as you could imagine. It´s the ground combat routine that doesn´t work, therefore those results... [8|]

I saw the same thing in a combomod beta test. An LCU appears to have a minimum combat power--if that's enough to keep the enemy out, they'll never get in. Think Stalingrad.
Harry Erwin
"For a number to make sense in the game, someone has to calibrate it and program code. There are too many significant numbers that behave non-linearly to expect that. It's just a game. Enjoy it." herwin@btinternet.com
User avatar
Hortlund
Posts: 2162
Joined: Fri Oct 13, 2000 8:00 am

RE: Findings of the Strategic bombing experiment

Post by Hortlund »

ORIGINAL: castor troy

ORIGINAL: Panzerjaeger Hortlund

Hm, I wonder if Im seeing something like this in Manilla. I have the entire allied PI-army caught at Manilla, and Ive been bombarding them daily for the past month or so, with no noticeable effect on their combat performance.


I don´t know if you´re talking about our game but if so then I can tell you that my supply situation there is.... even worse as you could imagine. It´s the ground combat routine that doesn´t work, therefore those results... [8|]

Yeah, its our game.
The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close.
In its place we are entering a period of consequences..
GaryChildress
Posts: 6933
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2005 3:41 pm
Location: The Divided Nations of Earth

RE: Findings of the Strategic bombing experiment

Post by GaryChildress »

ORIGINAL: Panzerjaeger Hortlund

Hm, I wonder if Im seeing something like this in Manilla. I have the entire allied PI-army caught at Manilla, and Ive been bombarding them daily for the past month or so, with no noticeable effect on their combat performance.

I had a similar situation with VSWG. I pounded Manila for a month or two with daily artillery attacks. Finally I tried a deliberate assault IIRC (I don't think it was a shock attack) his defenders decimated my attackers, leaving me with almost no functioning rifle squads. Next turn he launched an all out offensive and ended up retaking the entire Philippines. I was a little shocked that his troops were able to do that after a month of daily pounding. I guess my troops just launched a "banzai" charge and simply walked into the Allied machine guns or something. I lost almost an entire division worth of squads in a single day. [&:]
User avatar
RUPD3658
Posts: 6921
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2002 2:25 am
Location: East Brunswick, NJ

RE: Findings of the Strategic bombing experiment

Post by RUPD3658 »

The moral of the story is that LCU bombardments do not have much effect. Use ships or AC and you will see a much greater effect on the defender's combat performance.
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has limits"- Darwin Awards 2003

"No plan survives contact with the enemy." - Field Marshall Helmuth von Moltke
[img]https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/upfi ... EDB99F.jpg[/img]
Chimaera
Posts: 48
Joined: Wed Dec 05, 2007 5:54 pm

RE: Findings of the Strategic bombing experiment

Post by Chimaera »

ORIGINAL: Gary Childress
I had a similar situation with VSWG. I pounded Manila for a month or two with daily artillery attacks. Finally I tried a deliberate assault IIRC (I don't think it was a shock attack) his defenders decimated my attackers, leaving me with almost no functioning rifle squads. Next turn he launched an all out offensive and ended up retaking the entire Philippines. I was a little shocked that his troops were able to do that after a month of daily pounding. I guess my troops just launched a "banzai" charge and simply walked into the Allied machine guns or something. I lost almost an entire division worth of squads in a single day. [&:]

Scary, especially since I am in a similar situation [;)]

Do you remember the approximate assault values of both sides when you launched the attack? I assume you outnumbered and outgunned your opponent there.
User avatar
RUPD3658
Posts: 6921
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2002 2:25 am
Location: East Brunswick, NJ

RE: Findings of the Strategic bombing experiment

Post by RUPD3658 »

Keep in mind that Manilla is an urban hex and gives a 4x multiplier to the AV of the defenders in addition to those given by the forts. Even out of supply and disrupted, urban hexes are hard to take.
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has limits"- Darwin Awards 2003

"No plan survives contact with the enemy." - Field Marshall Helmuth von Moltke
[img]https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/upfi ... EDB99F.jpg[/img]
Andy Mac
Posts: 12578
Joined: Wed May 12, 2004 8:08 pm
Location: Alexandria, Scotland

RE: Findings of the Strategic bombing experiment

Post by Andy Mac »

Stock lvl 9 forts plus urban benefit = x 16 AV x out of supply = x .25 = MIMIMUM 4 x Base AV or to put it another way the attacker needs AT Least 4x the base AV or to be safe 8x to ensure 1:1 as you cannot rely on all units being out of supply.
User avatar
castor troy
Posts: 14331
Joined: Mon Aug 23, 2004 10:17 am
Location: Austria

RE: Findings of the Strategic bombing experiment

Post by castor troy »

ORIGINAL: Andy Mac

Stock lvl 9 forts plus urban benefit = x 16 AV x out of supply = x .25 = MIMIMUM 4 x Base AV or to put it another way the attacker needs AT Least 4x the base AV or to be safe 8x to ensure 1:1 as you cannot rely on all units being out of supply.


thought lev 9 forts give you 2x... so urban: 4x2=8av x0.25 = 2 base av
User avatar
Hortlund
Posts: 2162
Joined: Fri Oct 13, 2000 8:00 am

RE: Findings of the Strategic bombing experiment

Post by Hortlund »

Out of supply is only x0.25? Regardless of the time the unit has been out of supply? Wow
 
Please tell me this will change in AE
The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close.
In its place we are entering a period of consequences..
User avatar
castor troy
Posts: 14331
Joined: Mon Aug 23, 2004 10:17 am
Location: Austria

RE: Findings of the Strategic bombing experiment

Post by castor troy »

ORIGINAL: Panzerjaeger Hortlund

Out of supply is only x0.25? Regardless of the time the unit has been out of supply? Wow

Please tell me this will change in AE

IMO every unit that is out of supply (let´s say 5-10% of it´s normal needs, if that´s not far too few already) should immediately surrender when attacked, or even surrender when enough enemy forces are just present in the hex. That´s why I already thought about just offering you the surrender of my troops at Manila. I haven´t offered it yet because I lost 17.000 supplies when I moved out of Clark before you even attacked there and all the supply was just left behind. Strangely enough that the supply in China moves out with my units leaving the base...

we will see how Manila will go on...
Post Reply

Return to “War In The Pacific - Struggle Against Japan 1941 - 1945”