Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel

[Canoerebel]

8/5/42 to 8/10/42
 
Australia:  The troops retreating from Perth arrived at Kalgoorlie, joining the Aussie brigade and General MacArthur's HQ (a remnant pulled out of Manila, sent to Perth, and beginning to rebuild).  I had hopes of destroying the Jap defenders, but the attacks failed:  Neither a 1:1 delib on the 5th, a 2:1 shock on the 7th, nor a 3:1 shock on the 9th could finish off the two parachute regiments and part of a mixed brigade.  Jap reinforcements are just two days away, so I've evacuated Kalgoorlie.  The reason for leaving Perth in the first place was to get these troops to Melbourne.  They're on the way.
 
The question is whether the Japs intend to advance on eastern Australia.  I have thought so for quite some time, but it's possible John will be satisfied with taking Kalgoorlie and Alice Springs and thus holding the western half of the continent.  That would be wondeful news for the Aussies, but I think he'll press on.  If so, he'll have to bring in supplies (and probably fresh troops) somewhere along the eastern or southern coast - Adelaide?  Whyalla?  Townsville?  Cairns?  If necessary the Aussies will fall back on Melbourne, Sydney, and possibly Brisbane, and each of those will be pretty strong.  Too, the Aussie and Dutch airforces are beginning to get some teeth, so it isn't a sure thing that the Japs can take Australia.  Even if they do, it will take some time, and we're nearing the stage of the game where the US can start projecting some power.  Therefore, while the Allied situation is dire, it isn't hopeless.
 
NoPac:  Minelaying continues at Kodiak with 2 DMs employed.  ML Oglala made her escape from Kodiak and is nearing Vancouver.
 
CenPac:  No sign of the Japs.  Minelaying continues at Palmrya, which now has 4,300+.  Scatterd Allied ships have been moving around between Pago Pago and the Societies, and south of Christmas Island, and haven't encountered any Jap ships or subs.  The US CVs are moving from San Fran to Pearl, a more central location where they can react to opportunities or threats. 
 
SoPac:  NZ is quiet.
 
India:  Quiet.
 
Burma:  Quiet.  The MLR of Akyab-Mandalay-Lashio still looks secure.  John is reconning far to the rear, well into India, but I have a pretty good defense in depth.
 
China:  Troops at Changsha prepping for Nanchang have reached about 10-15.
 
Situation:  Except for the move on Changsha in 60 days or so, the Allies aren't planning any major moves in the near term.  My best hope in the near term is that John will make a mistake or that I'll catch a break somewhere.

[Canoerebel]

8/11/42 to 8/16/42
 
This has been an unusually quiet six days, but it's what I can't see - what's happening behind the front lines - that has me worried.
 
Australia:  The static units in Perth capitulated on 8/11, with the base force retreating toward Albany.  It arrived there around the 15th and I have seven subs on the way to try to extract part of the unit.  John hasn't moved on Albany yet, so I just transferred in about 72 Hudsons and Liberator-IIIs.  Maybe they'll get in a sneak attack of their own.  I haven't detected any Japanese advance east from Kalgoorlie, but it may just be a recon failure.  Neither have the Japs advanced into Alice Springs yet - 12 units are one hex away.  The Aussie defenders at Alice have an AV of 1030 and forts 5.  I'll try to hold awhile.  John is diverting troops across the continent from near Tennant Creek toward Charter Towers.  He may be trying to surround and cut off the troops in Alice Springs, so I'll keep careful watch.  Right now I don't know whether John plans to try to take the entire continent, but I'll assume he is unless and until proved otherwise.
 
NoPac:  Remains quiet with two DMs busy mining Kodiak.  ML Oglala made Seattle and is mining that harbor until I figure out where I want to send her.  NoPac is now a backwater.
 
CenPac:  Remains quiet with four DMs busy mining Palmyra, which now has more than 4500 mines.  These DMs will soon move to Christmas Island.  The four US CVs are at Pearl.
 
SoPac:  The lone 3k AK sailing from San Fran to NZ slipped past Pago Pago, the Societies, Raratonga, and Tongatapu and looks to be safely on its way.  Four APs loaded with 112th Cav Div have been stationed in the Panama City channel.  Two have sailed separately and widely spaced, trying to run the blockade north of the Societies and then following the same route as that AK.  This is a real long shot, but it would be nice to get this unit to NZ or even Oz.
 
NZ:  Placid.
 
India:  Placid.
 
Burma:  The Akyab-Mandalay-Lashio MLR remains clear of the enemy.
 
China:  The troops in Changsha prepping for Nanchang are at level 20-25 now.  They may move out in about 45 days.

[Canoerebel]

8/17/42 to 8/23/42
 
The Japanese army is on the march, and the noose is tightening around the neck of the beseiged Australians.
 
Australia:  The bulk of the Japanese army is in Australia, where the threat to the Allies is dire.  On the other hand, it is now pretty clear that there is minimal threat of a major Japanese thrust anywhere else.  (1)  Four Jap divisions (16, 18, 48, Imperial Guards) plus 56th Brigade are posted at Alice Springs, bombarding the defenders each turn, with more Jap troops a hex away.  The Allies garrison has an AV of 1070 and forts 5.  The Jap bombardments are hurting, and it doesn't look like the Allies can hold long.  But how is the Jap supply situation and are the Jap troops fatigued? (2)  Jap units seem to be taking the left fork at Tennant Creek moving across the continent toward Charters Towers.  I say "seem to be" only because it's possible John could be running a General N.B. Forrest ruise, marching the units that way and then back and then that way and then back - all as a feint; but I think it's the real thing, I just don't know how strong. (3)  At least two Jap divisions (2nd, 20th - the latter is part of the Kwangtung army and I don't even have a 2nd division on the roster I use listing Jap divisions) were working the Perth area.  They should be moving east past Kalgoorlie, or perhaps they will embark on transports for an invasion effort.  The Japs are reconning everywhere - the south coast by Jake and Alf from a Mini-KB, the southeastern coast by long-range recon from that island north of NZ; and the northeastern coast from New Guinea.  So it seems like the Japs are coming from all directions.  I'll try to fight delaying actions where worthwhile, but if the Japs come with big numbers, am I better off concentrating at one city - say Melbourne - for a final stand, or trying to use the big forts at two or three cities (Sydney and Brisbane being the candidates).  The Allies should have AV strength totaling something like 3500-4000.  I can create three pretty stiff garrisons with forts 9, or I can create on super-redoubt with AV 3500 or whatever.  I'm not to the point of withdrawing the relatively weak garrisons from the other cities (like Townsville, Cairns, Newcastle, etc) yet, I'm just pondering my options.
 
NZ:  Quiet, and the defense of the North Island is pretty strong.  I doubt John has the strength to take on the North Island at this point, but should Australia fall all bets are off.  He could then move his Australia forces to NZ and pick it off relatively easily.  112th Cav Regiment is on the way from Panama in four widely separated APs.  The first is about to run the seas between Raratonga and Tongatapu.
 
India:  Quiet.  SigInt reported 17th Div. prepping for Diamond Harbor.  This is another Kwangtung or Chinese division, so I think this is a ruse.  I believe John is reconning and ruse-prepping in this area simply to keep me on the defensive.  Another Indian division arrived in Bombay, fresh from Aden.  The Allies are planning to go on the offensive.
 
Burma:  The Japs haven't ever tried to cross the river to hit Mandalay.  Jap units have taken station nearby - there's one division (33rd) across the river from Mandalay, and I think there are two more (including 55th) one hex south of Lashio.  There are Jap troops in Meiktila and Magwe, but not significant infantry numbers as best I can tell.  Thirty-third Division has been in that open, non-city hex for weeks, and should be somewhat disrupted and fatigued due to periodic Allied bombing raids.  The Allied troops in Mandalay may attempt to force a river crossing in about two weeks (after armor and artillery reinforcements arrive from Calcutta).  If successful, the Jap troops near Lashio would then be cut off.
 
China:  Chinese bombers and B-17s hit the unguarded airfield at Canton on successive days, destroying more than 20 aircraft on the ground.  Those raids, the presence of Chinese troops 60 miles from the city, and active recon by an F-5 unit are meant to give the impression that the Chinese have designs on Canton; but actually the main push will come from Changsha toward Nanchang.  The troops are prepping and have reach a level of about 27-30, so it will be at least a month before this operation gets underway.
 
NoPac:  The Allies and the Japs each lost a sub to the other side's mines at Kodiak.
 
CenPac:  Engineers are 85% of the way to a level one airfield at French Frigate Shoals.  A small base force is on the way there from San Fran.  Once French Frigate goes to level one, I'll base a PBY squadron there, begin reconning Midway, and send a mock invasion fleet that way.  This will just be a ruse to raise an alarm.  The Allies minelaying TFs have moved from Palmyra to Christmas. 

[dpstafford]

Are you guys playing with multi-day turns??

[Canoerebel]

8/24/42 to 9/3/42
 
(Reply to DPStafford:  We're playing one day turns)
 
The Allies  decided to evactuate Alice Springs out of concern the garrison would be cut off, then won the race to get those troops safely to the South Coast, but the Japs are moving on Southern Australia now and it looks like it will be a fight to the finish for the isolated, beleaugered Aussies.
 
Australia:   After handily defeating a Jap deliberate attack on the 24th (0:1 with forts 5, the Japs lost 1808/75/4 to 1061/1434) the Allies decided it was time to skedaddle and make for the coast, for fear that Jap troops might be moving east from Kalgoorlie to cut off their escape route.  I was reluctant to give up Alice, because the Aussie's had created a strong road block and I think the Jap troops were going to become very fatigued, and perhaps low on supply, trying to take it.  But I was also afraid I had waited too long to move - that the Japs could be close to Whyalla and Adelaide.  John bombed the fleeing troops, but they moved quickly and are now reaching the junction with the Kalgoorlie/Adelaide road.  It was a near thing, I believe.  Jap paratroops dropped on Whyalla on the 31st, but the 6th Aussie Cavalry arrived the same day.  The Japs were bloodied, but thus far have withstood counterattacks.  Now Jap invasion TFs are nearing, and could hit Adelaide or Whyalla.  Aussie units from both Perth and Alice Springs are in the area, so I may reinforce these two ports, or I may pull back to Melbourne.  Allied bombers from Adelaide finally sortied on the 3rd, with Dutch B25s and TiVs joined by Aussie Liberators.  Two strikes went in against a Mini-KB, scoring two hits on CVL Ryuho.  A recon Liberator hit Ryuho earlier in the day, making three hits total.  But no reports of flames, so it may be nothing worth getting excited over.  The Allies have successfully extracted the troops from Perth and Alice, should be able to make strong stands at Melbourne, Brisbane, and Sydney (and perhaps elsewhere, depending upon how much John brings), and the Allied airforce will have plenty of bases to fly from.  So I don't think Australia is a lost cause, but if John brings enough he can probably conquer the continent.
 
NZ:  Of the four scattered APs carrying 112th Cav Reg't from Panama City, a Mini-KB sighted the third and sent it to the bottom.  Then another Mini-KB sighted the 1st, but somehow this AP eluded detection thereafter, sprinting north toward Suva and now SE making its way south of Noumea.  There's a chance it could make it.  Of the remaining two, one is near the south edge and perhaps five days from NZ, and the other is nearing the southern edge, well SE of the Society Islands.  It's a good ten or twelve days from NZ.  I'll be lucky if I don't lose most or all of these APs.
 
CenPac:  Jap recon probably sighted the US CVs at Pearl, so John should know where they are now.  The minelaying force has moved to Christmas Island, which now has 2k mines.  No sign of hostiles in this region.
 
NoPac:  Mining continues at Kodiak, but no sign of Jap combat ships in weeks.
 
India/Burma:  John sent in Tonys, which ambushed Allied bombers east of Mandalay.  Both sides have launched many raids over the past ten days, with losses higher - but not markedly so - for the Allies.  Reinforcements are moving toward Mandilay.  I still have a goodly number of troops covering rear areas, but I don't think John can hit India with so much of his effort in Australia.
 
China:  The Chinese troops prepping for Changsha are now at 37-45.  Thirty to 35 more days should be enough to justify moving forward.
 
Situation:  If John takes Australia, it will be a real knockout punch.  I might be able to mount a comeback and perhaps even earn a draw, but it'll be slow going.  If the Japs don't conquer Australia, then I think John hasn't delivered the knockout punch he needed to.  The Japs have conquered vast regions of the map, and the Allies have taken greater ship losses, but nothing they can't recover from if they can hold on to part of Australia. 

[Canoerebel]

9/4/42 to 9/6/42
 
Australia:  The Japs are landing in force at Whyalla (including 4th and 20th Divisions) with other troops approaching the area by land from Perth/Kalgoorlie and Alice Springs.  So there are at least 7 Jap divisions in Australia now (those noted, plus 2nd recently in the Perth area, and in Alice Springs 16th, 18th, 48th, and Imperial Guards).  A few Aussie units are still 30 miles up the Alice Springs road, but should join others at the road junction tomorrow.  The single Aussie unit at Whyalla held against a 1:1 shock attack, but I've ordered it to move to the road junction.  From there the units will retreat to Adelaide, and from there to Melbourne when the time comes.  I'm going to try to hold Melbourne and Sydney, but I'm not sure yet whether I should try to also hold Brisbane, or instead divide those units between the other two cities.  On the 5th, a small Allied combat TF led by CA Houston and CL Sumatra tangled with a large Jap bombardement force (with three BBs) at Adelaide.  Two Jap DDs and one Allied DD ended the skirmish in flames.  The hodgepodge of Allied bombers based at Adelaide have sortied each day, scoring single hits on three APs (with four other APs set afire by Whyalla's shore guns).  These bombers also scored two hits on BB Yamashira on the 5th, setting her afire, but the fires had been extinguished by the time she hit Adelaide the next night.  The Allied airforce in Australia is a factor now, whereas a month ago it wouldn't have been.  Syndey, Melbourne and Brisbane have level 9 forts, but can the Allies hold on to any of them?
 
NZ:  Two of the three remaining APs carrying 112th Cav. Reg't have arrived in NZ, one at Auckland and the other at Gisborne; the third is far to the SE a good week to ten days away (and the fourth was sunk by a Mini-KB a week or so ago).    I wanted to get this outfit to Australia, but Jap recon keeps sighting the AP that arrived at Auckland so John knows it's there and he certainly has the carrier power to close the lanes to Oz.
 
Burma:  The Japs still have but one unit across the river from Mandalay (33rd Div.).  The Allies are massing at Mandalay and will have AV 1600 or so in a day or two.  I'm about ready to try an assault across the river.  If it succeeds, it puts pressure on John in this area, as the Allied units will then be between a number of Jap units.  If the assault fails, I can pull back to Mandalay and I don't think John has enough power in the area to take advantage of that situation (he'd have to try a river crossing himself, and Mandalay has 9 forts).
 
China:  Many of the troops prepping for Nanchang are near 50 now.  I'm really anxoius to get the show on the road, but I'll give it another ten days to two weeks.  Prep seems to be building at a rate better than 1 per day.
 
NoPac:  The Allies continue to mine Kodiak; the Japs continue to sit quietly in Cold Bay and other bases to the west.
 
CenPac:  A US base force unloaded at French Frigate Shoals (which is 95% to a level one airfield).  I moved in a PBY squadron and reconned Midway on the 6th.  Recon shows just a few units, but one could be a division for all I know.  I hope developments here will cause John to wonder if I'm targeting Midway.  French Frigate should go to level 1 in less than a week.  That will draw his attention.  Then I'll create a large mock invasion TF that will move slowly toward Midway.  The US CVs are still docked at Pearl, but I may move them south on a cruise mission to be in place in case I get good recon on the location of a Mini-KB that might be vulnerable.  Christmas Island now has 2000+ mines and just got a RCT, so I think she's as safe as I can make her within reason.

[Canoerebel]

9/7/42 to 9/11/42
 
The Jap invasion of southern Australia dominates the news during this stretch:
 
Australia:  The Japs took Whyalla, I think on the 7th or 8th though I failed to make note of it.  This gives John a level one airfield, and I'm sure he's building like crazy (I ordered my Liberators at Adelaide to hit the airfield in an effort to prevent him from building, but my Libs didn't fly for several turns, so I've since switched them over to naval attack).  Seawolf put a torp into BB Nagato on the 7th, and Adelaide-based bombers have repeatedly hit the invasion TFs, both during recon missions and during naval strikes.  On the 11th, for instance, 10 Jap APs were bombed or torpedoed.  With Jap units in Whyalla moving a hex to the north, and other Jap units arriving in the area from Kalgoorlie and Alice Springs, I had four small units fleeing Alice get caught up in a zone of control movement problem.  John repeatedly attacked and on the 11th forced these units to retreat across country into a vacant hex.  They will try to make Broken Hill, but will probably be isolated and eventually destroyed.  The bulk of the Alice Springs garrison is safely in Adelaide, or a hex or two away.  Adelaide will have an AV of about 1250, so I'll remain there for awhile and see what develops.  John can move troops toward Sydney via the Broken Hill route, but he'll also have to beware lest the Allies move behind him and cut him off.  With the Allied aircraft performing fairly well, it will take some time for John to conquer Australia, if ever.
 
Relief Effort Gone Awry:  I had a sudden, overwhelming case of regret similar to "buyer's remorse" - a sudden feeling of despair that I had done something wrong.  With Australia beseiged, I decided suddenly (and therefore inadvisedly) to try to get reinforcements to Australia from NZ.  So I began loading 40th Div and Americal on transports and sending small TFs toward Sydney.  A strong Mini-KB swooped down from the north and finished off two APs and two AKs.  So I've given up on that idea.
 
India/Burma:  Quiet, except major Jap bombing raids are striking Mandalay and Imphal.  John has Tonys and is proudly showing them off.  A few more Jap units have arrived in the area, leading me to cancel the impending advance out of Mandalay and across the river.  I need a few days to thrink this through and to await 18th UK Div.'s arrival in Mandalay.
 
China:  The Nanchang force prep now ranges from 47-63, with most in the low 50s.  I think I'll wait until they average about 70, then move forward three hexes to the point where three Jap units sit just outside Nanchang.
 
NoPac:  Quiet.  Mining at Kodiak continues, with mines at 8,000 now.
 
CenPac:  Some kind of Jap TF is moving on French Frigate Shoals from Midway.  I think a surface combat force - I hope not an invasion force.  The airfield is at 98% to level one.  I need it to go to one so that I can air transport some infantry in.  Both Palmyra and Christmas island have 6k mines.

[Canoerebel]

9/12/42 to 9/16/42
 
Australia:  The noose is tightening.  Jap units seem to be all over the place between Whyalla, Adelaide, and Broken Hill.  I don't have a good feel for whether the force is significantly stronger than the six divisions and mixed brigade identified over the past few weeks.  John surrounded and pummeled a group of small Allied units (including tank regiment, artillery, USAAF HQ detachment, and small Darwin infantry units) all the way to Adelaide, driving them like a herd of cattle.  But it was nice of him to herd my cattle right to Adelaide, which has level 8 forts, 100k supplies, and an AV in excess of 1400.  I don't know whether John has cut off the retreat route for my troops in Adelaide, but I want to stay here for awhile anyhow.  My bombers are doing pretty good work on his shipping at Whyalla, and I've resumed the airfield bombing campaign to try to keep John from building it up and basing more aircraft there.  I've begun pulling the solitary Aussie brigades from the NE coast back toward Sydney and Melbourne.  Sydney has a stout AV, but Melbourne will need serious help, especially if those troops in Adelaide are cut off.  John can attain auto-victory if he is victorious in Australia.  Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane each offer him more than 2k points.  Right now his lead is 25,500 to 7,500.  Syndey and Melbourne are urban hexes so should be tough nuts to crack.  Am I toast in Australia and in the game (due to auto-victory) or am I underselling the difficulty of taking these big cities?  On the 16th, a stout KB force struck Sydney (74 Z and 185 Kates) and damaged a variety of merchant and combat ships.  This looks like the KB to me.
 
It's too late and too chancy to reinforce Australia, so I'm scrambling for some other way of drawing or dividing John's attention.  I have some scattered merchants moving north through the Solomons after leaving Brisbane.  He caught sight of one.  He has probably deduced this is an exodus from Australia, but if he wants to strike them and close off this route he'll have to do something.
 
CenPac:  I'm moving the 1st Marine Division to Pearl where it will join the 2nd.  This will form the nucleus of an invasion force if an inspiration hits.  French Frigate Shoals went to level one airfield.  I moved an F-5 squadron in and began reconning Midway.  I feel sure this will make John wonder whether I have designs on Midway.
 
India:  I am moving ground units and shipping to Bombay.  This could form the nucleus of an invasion force.  I have some targets in mind, but I'm just beginning to sort through my options.  The most likely target would be Sumatra.
 
Burma:  I may try the attack across the river from Mandalay, but I don't hold out much hope in that area.
 
China:  The troops prepping for Changsha range from low 50s to 100 now, with the average in the upper 60s, so these guys have been ordered to move forward 120 miles to the hex adjacent to Nanchang.  John has three units in this hex.  I have no idea how strongly he holds Nanchang and whether my force, strong as it is, can penetrate the fortifications.  But if they can, John will have to deal with an army with an AV in excess of 8,000.
 
Summary:  I'm not preparing my surrender speech yet, but I'm really worried about the prospect of a Japauto-victory.  I hope that John has bitten off more than he can chew in Australia, but right now it seems that he can bring as much as he needs. 
 

[Canoerebel]

9/17/42 to 9/19/42
 
Australia:  The Japs have bottled up a sizeable Allied army in Adelaide - partly because I wanted to hold the town and partly because I didn't realize how easily the Japs could bypass it, leaving it cut off.  Five Jap divisions are in the hex (4, 16, 18, 48, IG).  The 4th just arrived.  The day before (18th), John tried a delliberate attack which failed - the Jap troops had a very low adjusted AV probably due to fatigue.  The Allies tried a counterattack which failed miserably.  My troops shall remain at Adelaide to the bitter end, but with forts 8 (and 50% to 9) and plenty of supplies, it should take awhile for John to seize this fortress.  I have some hope his troops are a bit run down after incessant campaigning and moving.  I'm moving some garrison brigades from NE Australia to Melbourne to bolster it's AV - it should reach nearly 1000.  Sydney's AV is 1350. Brisbane's is about 400 and I may evacuate that town to beef up the others when the time comes for the final defense.
 
Jap engineers pushed Whyalla's airfield to leve 2 on the 18th, which is bad news indeed.  Allied bombers - especially Hudsons from Melbourne - were savaged the next day.  Adelaide based bombers hit a strong Jap combat TF that wandered too close, sinking BBs Yamashiro and Fuso.  This victory was offset by the KB remaining near Sydney for four days, whacking the port-bound shipping.  The Allies lost three CAs and two CLs and some other shipping.
 
In addition to the 5th divisions at Adelaide, I know John has at least two more on the continent (2nd and 20th) and probably some others.  Nearly all CVs must be here judging by the massive nature of the air raids vs. Syndey plus wandering Mini-KBs near NZ and south of Adelaide.  So John must be pretty weak elsewhere, but can I risk the Allied CVs now?  I prefer to wait until Essex and some CVEs arrive, but by then the game could be over if John achieves auto-victory.
 
India:  Troops and ships continue to make for Bombay to form the Sumatra invasion force.  This operation won't get underway for about ten days, so it's a good 20-25 days from happening, if ever.
 
Burma:  Four Jap units are across the river from Mandalay - some 35,000 strong - so the opportunity to attack the once lightly-held hex has vanished.
 
China:  The Nanchang invasion troops just moved 60 miles east of Changsha.  I had a single unit in that hex, so it's possible John hasn't had time to notice that a massive Chinese army is on the move.  This is my best hope to create some difficulty for John, but I don't imagine it will be easy to take Nanchang.
 
NoPac:  The peace continues.  I've moved my DM from Kodiak to Anchorage, which is about to go to a level 9 port.  Both ports have 8k+ mines.
 
CenPac:  No sign of the Japs, other than at Midway, which is garrisoned by 35k troops. 

[veji1]

Waow, you hardly mention your sinking of 2 jap BBs, this is big, it will really hurt him down the road as not only he will miss 2 extra BBs but it will put extra pressure and wear on his remaining BBs.. This is very good for you.

[Big B]

Canoerebel,
Very interesting situation, and tense. May I offer some amateur advice?

If you loose Australia soon, you loose the game by autovictory - correct?

If that is not true - let Australia become the biggest self-supporting Japanese POW island that the Allies control. Build up the Fleet, and other forces, to go on the offensive else where and game it out.

However, if loosing OZ is the end of the game because of autovictory - I think you must immediately throw everything you have into relieving the siege of greater Australia. Can you wait until you get F6F Hellcats (Feb-Mar '43)? It would be nice - but you may not have that Luxury. You do have P-38s. I would put together the most powerful fleet you can manage, and every soldier you can spare, and sail to OZ before it's too late...and spend every last bit of power in China to make him fear losing control of industry there too.

Just my 2c.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks for the comments, gents.  It was good to send those two BBs down, but the KB is damaging so many ships in port that it totally offset the victory (or so it seemed to me as I watched the long, long list of damaged ships mount).

I haven't read the auto-victory rules in some time.  My recollection is that if the Japs hold a 4:1 advantage on 1/1/43 the game ends in auto-victory.  I need to double-check.  Also, what if the Japs don't have a 4:1 on that day, but get it later in the year; do they then achieve the a-victory or is the test administered only on the 1st of the year?

I tried a desperatation reinforcement of Australia from NZ, but John jumped my ships.  At this point I feel like I will just feed him additional points by sending ships to Australia.

So I'm focusing on opportunities that may exist elsewhere to try to apply some pressure.  The Chinese troops moving toward Nanchang are the first and biggest move - they will arrive a hex from Nanchang in three days or so, and the average prep by then should be close to 80.  I think John has a strong, but not overwhelming, force in Nanchang, so I have some hope of creating problems for him there.  I don't think he has caught wind of this yet.

The second thrust will be the invasion of Sumatra, but this worries me as I really can't commit enough troops yet to land a force so large that it can hold it's own indefinately.  (I have to keep enough troops in Burma and NE India to keep John honest, and I stripped Madras and some southern interior cities to come up with troops).  I'm proceeding with this operation, but it might be cancelled on a whim or a feeling.  If it goes, it will probably land at Telekbetong and try for Palembang.

The third possible thrust is in CenPac.  I have enough ships to move three divisions (2 Marine and 1 Army) plus support troops.  None are prepped for realistic targets, and I don't want to give John any hint I may try something here, because the KB can swoop down at its leisure.  I know Midway is strongly held and I believe Canton Island, Pago Pago, and the Societies are too.  So I'm thinking of bypassing the front line in hopes that there might be a soft underbelly.  Kwajalein is a possibility.

Edit re: Victory Conditions: Per the manual, if one side attains a 4:1 points ratio at any time during 1943, auto-victory occurs.

Edited: I have played a very cautious game with the exception of losing two CVs, believing that the Allies can come back from anything but auto-victory. But I've laid back to the point where an auto-victory is a real threat, but it's not yet a certainty.

[Big B]

Canoerebel - can we see a map of the Pacific? (which shows those lovely red and green dots)

Also - what major fleet units do you have left (CL and larger)?

[Mistmatz]

Autovictory is checked for every first of January according to manual. And I believe this is one of the things that are correctly described there. [;)]
So 1/1/43 4:1, 1/1/44 3:1 and 1/1/45 2:1.

[Canoerebel]

Mismatz, according to my copy of the manual, auto-victory can occur on any day of the year.

BigB, I'll get you a map shortly.

The Allied combat fleet is in good shape.  It's easier to identify ships lost:

CV/CVL/CVE:  US 2 (CVs), Brits 0, Japs 0.
BB:  US 3, Brits 0, Japs 2 (the US ships were old, slow versions; the two Jap ships were weak)
CAs:  Allies 9, Japs 2
CLs:  Allies 5, Japs 5

If the Allies can stave off auto-victory, they are in good shape.  It's that "if" that worries me.  In a few months, tables turn and I'll take the initiative - if I'm still around.

[Canoerebel]

The map as of 9/23/42 - the Japs have taken all of SoPac (except NZ), control most of Australia except the SE and E coast, have a few strong outposts in CenPac (Midway and Canton), and own the Aleutians from Cold Bay west. On the other side of the map, the Allies still have Akyab, Mandalay and Lashio. The Chinese are about to take a stab at Nanchang.

[Mistmatz]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Mismatz, according to my copy of the manual, auto-victory can occur on any day of the year.

...

Canoerebel, you're right. I wonder why I have been so focussed on 1st of January... anyway my apologies, luckily you checked for yourself already.

[Big B]

It looks like you still have a fighting chance in OZ, but getting convoys through with a reasonable chance of remaining undetected is going to be tough with the Japs holding the Society Is.

And he outnumbers you 2:1 in CVs - with what appears to be a slim chance of re-enforcing with British CVs.

A tough Job!!!!

[Mistmatz]

Shouldn't there be a lot of US Divs around? Can you put them to good use and open up the communication/supply lines with Oz again? Of course you need to be wary of his carriers...

[saj42]

John has made potentially disasterous mistake in not taking Burma and cutting the Burma road to Yunan. If the Allies keep Manadalay and Lashio then they have a good springboard to reconquer Burma. With John concentrating so much force in Oz you - should - be able to threaten him here (but progress is slllooooooww).

My PBEM opponenet didn't take Manadalay, Lashio and Akyab in the first half of 42, so now, in April 43 I'm sitting across the river ready to assualt Bangkok and Pisanuloke, with advance units down as far as Ban Don. My offensive is only limited by the lack of combat units. He lost in his battle to take Papaete/Bora Bora where I gutted 4 Inf Divs of his. Now Thailand and Vietman are bolstered by at least 4 Divs released (PP paid) from China, with 2, 33, 55 and IG Divs.