Could Axie win before US enter

[xianing]

I have read lots AAR but havent found someone try to attacks Soviet before 1941.
My axie strategy is to take TLC fall 1939 and France the winter, and attack Russia spring or summer 1940 without these small axies. Then Japan attacks Russia in the winter 1941. I have found it efficient because Russia always lost too much of his production and troops before US come into the war, and it was too late to change something.

I have won 3 PBEM following this way. Why don't others use this strategy?

[kondor]

Even if France fall in winter turn, you need time to move your troops back to eastern front+ you will need supplies to pull of good attack. Not to mention that you will be invading from Poland because Hungary&Rumania will still be neutral... IMO this is not a way to go. You will considerably boost SU production not to mention WA WR...
I tried to pull of something like that vs Jan (bad play vs good player) and it was all over in ´43[&o].
But again maybe is doable, this is just my opinion...

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=1356514


edit: here is the link to that game... brrr... I was a real greenhorn then...[:'(]

[xianing]

I has read that AAR.
I think if Japan attacked Russia instead of China inland, and Germany first attack at Karkov instead of Stalingrad, it will make some difference. At least US won't enter war before 1942, and if Russia lose enough resources from both sides, Germany will be able to keep a superior production untill 1942.
 
Seems I need a good Allies player to try my theory.
 

[MrQuiet]

I dont think Axis can Auto Victory before US joins but early Barbarossa is always a option and you dont absolutely need Japan to backdoor Russia.
 
You can read a AAR of me vs Mike McMann from back in Round 1 of the tournament:
http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=1359743
 
I started Barb Fall40 but was dissadvantaged due to hitting Yougo while it was neatral thus the Minors did not join before Barb.

[xianing]

I just show you my current game with Esteban.

France falls in winter 40, I attacked Russia in Summer 1940, only Romania joined the axie.

Germany met heavy resistance in Karkov but managed to take it at Fall 41.

Allies attacked Vichy for some unkown reason, but that just turned Yogo to Pro-Axie and give me very difficult transportation problems.

Then Allies invaded Greece to threaten Romania in Fall 41 to open a second front.

I have no choise but to attack Yogo before allies take it. That made all minor axies learn-Axie.



What is important is Russia has only 27 production points and still decrease fast caused by resources damaged by German and Japanese HBs. Germany pp is 40, japan 20, WA only 39. I think the situation is not bad for Axies but really dangerous for Russia, as Germany still has a great advantage in techs.

[xianing]

You can see Soviet lost is nearly two times than Germany because of backward techs. An early attack can prevent Russia invests in tech but into supplies and armies. In other side, Germany got x3 production just make it undefeatable before US enter even facing two fronts.

[christian brown]

It would be nice it you'd continue this AAR, I'm not convinced you're going to pull this off...............prove me wrong : )
I

[kondor]

ORIGINAL: christian brown

It would be nice it you'd continue this AAR, I'm not convinced you're going to pull this off...............prove me wrong : )
I

second that! keep on posting xianing!

[xianing]

Ok! winter 1942, Germany and Japan bombed Russia intensively. Now the production point of Russia is only 9!

Allies attacked Yogo in fall, but Germany made reinforcement to hold the position.

Germany also has his panzers updated. The situation is showed here.

[xianing]

A production level of Axie 65 to Allies 49 !

[xianing]

Situation of Germany side.

[kondor]

How far is US from entering the war?

[WanderingHead]

I have had one early-squeeze-play game where every Soviet region was lost except isolated and out of supply Belorussia, and the WA still managed to come back and win a marginal victory. Of course, that was the original WAW, not AWD, and a lot has changed since then.

Presumably the USA is very close to entering in this one.

[xianing]

Not very close, because Vichy attacked by WA, US is still x1 in production. Germany never sink WA transports by sub before.

Spring 42 Soviet troops encircled at Rostov but hadn't been destroyed.

[xianing]

Germany and Japan HBs can just attack everywhere of Russia. the PP of Russia is reduced to 4. WA can't make much advance in Balkan.

[xianing]

Could someone tell me if WA attacks Japan now (by air), will US be unfrozen? Same question if Japan attacks WA?
 
 

[WanderingHead]

ORIGINAL: xianing
Could someone tell me if WA attacks Japan now (by air), will US be unfrozen? Same question if Japan attacks WA?

Very perceptive question! The answer is YES, on both counts.

The good thing, though, is that if the WA attack Japan then the USA would enter but would not get the large WR boosts from surprise Japanese attack. The USA would be able to move, but production would still increase very slowly.

The fact that the WA attacked Vichy gives you a much improved situation. The strategy might look more balanced to you if that had not occurred, the WA had excess production, and the USA was about to DOW.

[xianing]

If Vichy was not attacked, US WR is likely between 26 and 32. That means US will still wait at least two turns or even more to DOW. Soviet should be already paralyzed at that time, and when Germany has all his armies of east front come back, US with a x2 production won't change anything. It will surely be a Axie victory because without Russia, I can't see how WA troops can push to Berlin.

[xianing]

Because my opponent updated and cannot read the save, so the AAR should stop here.
Any way any other players who see clearly my weak points and wants to teach me a lesson are wellcome.
 
 

[schury]

it depends on how WA reply to your early attack. you can refer to my AAR VS jans. I lost there. Though i made some mistakes, i still couldn't hold till1946 if i didn't. However I won many victories by this strategy. maybe the new patch helps the Axis alot to do it better. However, very dangerous move for Axis. Maybe a complete operational research test can tell us when is the best barb time for a normal game.[:)]