Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel

[Canoerebel]

11/13/42 to 11/17/42
 
Australia:  The Japanese army moving on Melbourne indeed moved all the way back to Adelaide and now seems to be approaching the coast from the road to the north (the one that passes through Broken Hill).  Allied bombers are hitting this force, and I'm sending forward units from Sydney to contest the road junction to the west.  I don't want to fight to the death over this road junction, but I do want to make sure that John can't take it without a full commitment of his forces.  If he takes this junction, I may have to pull my garrison out of Brisbane and back to Sydney.  I can't take a chance on those troops getting cutt off fom Sydney.  The stand-off at Brisbane continues for the present, as I think John is awaiting arrival of that other division that was engaged at Townsville.
 
Burma:  Most of the Chinese troops at Lashio have advanced a hex.  Tomorrow they will bombard the enemy to measure their strength.  Most of the Allied troops in Mandalay have been ordered to advance on this same hex.  My plan is to coordinate the attacks so that it comes off as a combined shock attack when my Mandalay troops cross the river.
 
China:  John is landing reinforcements at Haiphong.  The only unit clearly identified was a heavy gun regiment.  These units, in addition to the Vietnamese divisions created when the Allies invade Vietnam, may be enough to hold off the Chinese.  My troops are gathering in Nanning, so I'm not commited to the Vietnam invasion yet.  I'll make the final call in about five days.  As noted previously, if the invasion is scrubbed, some of these units will be transported by air to Lashio.  Since Chinese units run heavy toward manpower and short on equipment, air transport is pretty efficient.
 
CenPac:  The Japs continue to bomb and bombard the stuffing out of Wotje.  The Allies have enough supplies to create PT boats, and a squadron of these hit Jap transports at Maloelap on teh 17th, putting torpedoes into three and heavily damaging a fourth by gunfire.  The two remaining US CVs plus CVE Nassau are steaming in circles about twelve hexes NE of Wotje, waiting to see if a Jap Mini-KB shows up.  P38Gs from Johnston Island are providing LRCAP.
 
Situation:  I haven't adequately recounted the vast number of Allied ships lost in Australia and in trying to flee from Australia.  Scores of ships are heavily damaged or sunk.  This will have a big affect on Allied ability to move supplies and men later in the game, if there is a later.  I beginning to doubt my chances in Vietnam.  I think the Allies have a decent shot at applying meaningful pressure in Burma.  Australia is the biggest question mark.  I continue to believe that Allies have a chance of holding Melbourne or Sydney or both, but that evaluation is coming from a voice of inexperience.

[Canoerebel]

11/18/42 to 11/22/42
 
All the action in this game is taking place in five places:

Australia:  The Japanese are gathering one hex west of the crossroads west of Sydney.  So far, the Japs have four divisions there:  4, 16, 20, and 48.  Several more, including the Imperial Guards, should be on the way from
Adelaide.  The Aussie's have two divisions and other troops in the crossroads hex.  I'll stick around for at least awhile longer, but don't want to go into battle against an overwhelming force out here in the clear terrain.  I'm bombing his guys, he's bombing mine.  The only other place in Australia that's "busy" is Brisbane.  John has three or four divisions there now.  His AV is about twice mine, but I have 9 forts.  He hasn't tried a deliberate or shock attack yet, but it's coming, and soon.

Burma:  The Allies moved in force into the hex south of Lashio - nine or ten Chinese units from that city, and a large force of Brit Empire units from Mandalay.  These Mandalay faction crossed the river in two waves, each of which resulted in 0:1 shock attacks (while the Chinese troops helped by bombarding).  While the Allies "lost" each attack, the Japanese took higher losses, which is quite encouraging.  The first attack cost the Japs 938/38/2 to 324/9/5 (this included the Brit 2nd and 18th Divisions crossing).  The second cost the Japs 604/38/3 to 582/13/3 (this included two Indian divisions plus two Brit artillery units).  The Allied units will bombard again tomorrow, to recover from the disorganization.  I think we'll try a shock attack in two or three days.  The Jap defenders are two divisons (5th and 55th) and a tank regiment.  I think they're going to taste defeat, which hasn't happened much in this game.

China:  (1)  Near Honan, the Chinese advanced to face three Jap divisions and a mixed brigade.  The Chinese have larger numbers, but the modified AV came out in favor of the Japs, by a decided margin.  The ensuing attack cost the Japs 700 casualties, the Chinese 3,000.  More Chinese are on the way.  I don't expect to accomplish much here; I'm hoping just to give John something to think about.  (2)  The Chinese are gathering a large force at Nanning.  I was playing to invade Vietnam, but John transferred a bunch of units that arrived "just in time."  Recon shows nearly 40k Jap troops there now.  Since the Japs would also get the Vietnam divisions should I invade, I don't like the odds any longer.  I'm toying with the idea of invading Haiphong, if I can go against it directly without going through Hanoi first (I've posted on the forums to see if this is possible).  In the meantime, a Dakota squadron is air transporting one of my Chinese units from Nanning to Lashio.  If I don't invade Vietnam, this will continue for a long time to come.  I'll be putting a huge number of Chinese units into Burma (might as well since they've already been assigned to Southeast Asia HQ).

Wotje: Oops, forgot to note this, the fifth of the five places where action is taking place. John continues to hammer the island by sea and air. The defenders hang on. PT boats sortied and sank two MSW at Maloelap on the 21st, but other than that nothing good has happened here.

[Canoerebel]

11/23/42 to 11/25/42
 
There was good news for both the Allied advance in Burma and the Japanese advance in Australia.
 
Australia:  On the 24th, the Japs tried a deliberate attack at Brisbane, the key city barring the way from the north into the remaining Allied territory.  The attack came off at 0:1, reducing forts from 9 to 8, but I was shocked at the casualties:  The Japs suffered 1501/66/4 to 2552/43/2!  This was bad news.  The Allied forces were well-entrenched, so I would have expected much lighter casualties.  I'm not withdrawing yet, but I'll watch the next attack carefully.  If the results are similar and forts drop, the Allies will plan their evacuation and try to time it so that they pull out before what would be the final and victorious Jap attack.
 
Further to the SW, at the crossroads west of Sydney, the Japs are assembling.  Four divisions are present, but John hasn't tried anything more than bombardments yet.  I don't plan to contest this crossroads very long, but each day is...well, another day.  Another Aussie division is scheduled to arrive in Sydney in about 85 days, which seems like forever.
 
Burma: Once the Allied troops had all assembled in the hex south of Lashio, and those who advanced across the river from Mandalay rested awhile, they tried a shock attack on the 24th.  This came off a surprising 22:1 (against two Jap divisions and a tank regiment) and evicted the defenders, who suffered 654/46/3 casualties to 1500/30/1 for the Allies (half of which are Chinese units).  Did this blow a hole in the Jap defenses in northwestern Burma?  Possibly.  I hope these two Jap divisions are a mess.  They retreated into the little, hard-to-reach city to the east, where they'll have to work to extract themselves.  Meantime, the Allies will turn their attention to the hex to the south (also across the river from Mandalay).  It's occupied by four units, one of which I believe is 33rd Division.  Allied reinforcements are pouring into Mandalay, and they'll join in the assault.  If this is successfuly, I may be able to drive them south on the road to Meiktila, thus possibly isolating the units that hard-to-reach city (Tsaiyung Hai or somesuch).  The Allies are also stepping up the transport of units from China to Lashio by air.  I think I can get reinforcements into northern Burma faster than John, at this point, so I have some hope for success here.
 
China:  A host of Chinese units are gathering at Lungchow as though I intended to invade Vietnam.  Due to the arrival of fresh Jap troops, however, I decided to call off the invasion.  At least for now.  I'm going to concentrate on shifting troops into Burma and back to Wuchow.  To some extent, I think all this will throw John off a little bit.  He's worried about Burma, naturally, and I know he was concerned about Vietnam, but will he pick up on the fact that the Allies have changed objectives from Vietnam to Burma?  Maybe not for a little while.
 
Wotje:  Continues to get hammered every turn.  Nothing really I can do here for awhile.  The US CVs and CVE Nassau are scooting over to Palmyra.  John has a bunch of subs at and around Johnston Island.  I think they were pickets trying to warn of any major Allied move toward Wotje.
 
Situation:  The sudden crack in my lines at Brisbane is really bad news.  I had hoped Brisbane would hold for weeks.  If it doesn't, the Allies will be down to Melbourne and Sydney.  This is discouraging, to say the least.  Here it is late November and I'm on the defensive.  In my other game, the big Allied invasion of Timor was in the planning stages by this point, and the invasion went in January.  As things look now, I may be saying a eulogy for Australia in January.

[Mistmatz]

How is your supply situation in Australia and what amount of supplies pour in (from production and by shipping)?
Keeping a big area under control is surely nice but you need a lot more supllies to support several fortresses in comparison to fewer ones. Although fewer ones have other disadvantages like loosing AF's due to bombing. How is the situation of the air force in Australia btw?

[Canoerebel]

The supply situation in Australia is okay at the moment, but it will become a factor.

The Allies have three main bases left - Melbourne (90k supplies), Sydney (30k), and Brisbane (30k).  I'll probably pull out of Brisbane within a week.  Sydney and Melbourne have oil and will produce supplies, but no shipments are coming in from elsewhere since the Japs have isolated the continent entirely.

The Japs pretty much rule the skies wherever they want to.  Brisbane gets clobbered from Rockhampton every turn, so there's no Allied air left there.  Syndey hasn't been hit yet.  Melbourne had been free from aerial assaults until just two or three days ago.  Now it's getting hit by large numbers of bombers in Tasmania, but the attack hasn't been sustained long enough to make a big difference yet.

If John succeeds in shutting down Melbourne, I'll move everything to Sydney, and then when the time comes I hope B24s and Lib-IIIs can make the hop to New Zealand.  I'll concentrate all fighters at one base.  The Aussie's currently have 3 Spitfire squadrons, a couple of Kittyhakws, three or four Hurricane IIcs, and that's about it.  Most of these have pretty good experience now - in the mid- to upper-60s, so they aren't pushovers.

The Allied airforce has gotten in a month's worth of hard licks against Jap ground forces.

If the Allies withdraw from Brisbane, and concentrate all troops at Melbourne and Sydney, the AVs at both posts will be in excess of 2000.

It's almost December.  Seems awfully late to be pressed so hard.  Kinda humiliating in fact.

I have NO idea what John's situation is like.  Suppies?  Are his troops fatigued, disorganized, low on morale, weakened by campaiging a year?  Or are the Japs in great shape?

The Allies have had a couple of successes in Burma and China, which I'll write about later.  I hope these will create some pressure on John, as he's also committed alot of assets to the suppression and reduction of Wotje. 

[Q-Ball]

Dan, don't forget that your industry and resources shut down once the IJN enters the hex. So, your stockpile will dwindle more quickly once Sydney and/or Melbourne are beseiged.

Even with that, I am guessing you have at least 3 months worth of supply on hand, even figuring you keep your airforce active. Shutting down Sydney airfield will be his highest priority. At some point you'll have to figure out how to get a large convoy in there. I bet John will know this, and seek an epic battle in the Sydney/Tanzania area, using his LBA to tip the scales.

I am very interested how this turns out.

[Canoerebel]

11/26/42 to 11/29/42
 
QBall, thanks for the insight.  Well, I hadn't forgotten about industry shutting down, but that's only because I didn't know that in the first place!  When, and if, I'm able to survive the auto-victory mess, I want to pick a battle on my terms if possible.  I don't know when and where that will be, but I sure don't want to play to his strength if I can avoid it.
 
Here's an update on the two areas that hold promise for the Allies:
 
Burma:  I think the Allies are bringing to bear overwhelming force.  As noted in the last post, the Allies took the hex south of Lashio (which is across the river from Mandalay), forcing two fairly weak Jap divisions to retreat into Tsyung Gai (spelling???).  The Allies next turned their attention to the hex to the south (also across the river from Mandalay).  The Allied troops refused to march across land, instead passing through Mandalay.  As a result, units crossed the river over several days.  On the 27th, they attacked at 0:1 and inflicteed 388/28 to 2047/18 (facing 33rd Div., 6th Brigade, and 4th Mixed Brigade).  On the 28th, I rested those first units to cross, but the newcomers launched a shock attack at 0:1 inflicting 819/32 to 2234/47/6.  I then rested all the troops that crossed those first two days, and on the 29th another 0:1 with fresh troops came in at 1:1 inflicting 388/15 to 416/20/3.  It turns out that John had withdrawn the division and one of the brigades.  They've pulled back to the city to the SE. So now the Allies have taken both hexes across the river from Mandalay.  More Allied reinforcements are arriving from India and China, so the force is growing daily.  I think the Allies may be able to push the Japs out of Meiktila.  If so, quite a number of Japanese troops are going to be isolated or face very long marches on bad roads in an effort to extricate themselves.  Right now, Burma is the most promising vector of attack for the Allies.
 
China:  Four stout Jap units were posted in an open hex east of Honan.  A sizeable Chinese army advanced from Honan to see if some trouble might be stirred.  The Japs tried an ill-advised deliberate attack on the 25th.  It came off at 0:1 and cost them 3572/100/1 to 822/8.  With the Japs fatigued and disorganized, the Chinese launched their own delib. attack the next day.  It came off at 3:1 and inflicted 723/31 to 3124/42 and pushed the Jap units across the river.  Now the Chinese will advance in another diretion, to the SE, toward more Japanese held hexes.  I don't really have thoughts of making any big gains here, but I do hope to create the appearance of trouble so that John will have to worry about his situation in this area.  Far to the south, the Chiense units are still in Lungchow trying to look menacing to the Jap troops in Vietnam.  I think John will soon realize (if he hasn't already) that the Chinese aren't coming this way.  Meanwhile, Dakotas in three Chinese cities are transporting two infantry units and an artillery unit to Lashio.  The Chinese will soon have a truly massive presence in Burma.  With John having pulled out so many Jap divisions from China, I don't think there's much risk of the Japs taking advantage of these moves.
 
Australia:  The second Jap deliberate attack at Brisbane came on the 27th.  This too came off at 0:1, dropped forts to 7, and inflicted 2267/40/7 to 1669/35/1.  Those results are more in line with what I had expected.  So the Aussie's should be able to hold Brisbane for at least another week.  In the meantime, the Japs haven't yet attacked at the Aussie controlled crossroads west of Sydney.  Once the Japs hold that junction, I'll probably have to evacuate Brisbane whether I'm ready to or not, because I can't risk the Brisbane garrison being cut off from Sydney.
 
 

[Canoerebel]

11/30/42 to 12/2/42
 
Australia:  The battle over the critical crossroads west of Sydney began in earnest on the 2nd with a Japanese deliberate attack consisting of four divisions (4, 20, 16, 48), a minor naval guard unit, an engineer unit, and four tank regiments (2, 6, 14 and 4).  I believe the Allies have two Aussie divisions, two Aussie cavalry divisions, two anti-tank units, a tank regiment, and an AA unit.  The Japs outnumber the Aussies about 95k to 55k, but the attack came off at 0:1 and cost the Japs 4339/79/25 to 806/32/7.  This was a propitious start to an important engagement.  The longer the Allies can hold this crossroads, the more time Melbourne and Sydney are left unmolested and I won't feel pressured to immediately evacuate Brisbane.  The Japs should have plenty of reinforcements on the way (all those troops, including IG and 48th Divisions, which neared Melbourne only to suddenly pull back to Adelaide).  To the north, at Brisbane, two more Jap attacks failed.  A 1:1 shock attack on the 30th (I forgot to note casualties, but the Jap numbers were higher) which dropped forts from 7 to 6; and another shock the following day at 0:1 which cost the Japs 934/10/25 to 632/7 and didn't touch the forts.  So the Japs have to rest for a few turns and I think I can afford to remain through at least one more assault (I think I'm gone once forts drop to 4, maybe when they drop to 5).  I'm trying to evacuate a few air units that I can't really use (transports, etc) by loading onto damaged freighters and sending them to NZ.  This will probably be Dunkirk if Hitler had allowed his generals to bring in the Panzers.
 
Burma:  The Japs withdrew from the hex acrros the river from Mandalay, and now occupy both Meiktila (75k troops) and Tyung Gai (I spell that a different way every time I try) (also with 75k).  The Allied army is already arriving at Meiktila and will bombard tomorrow.  The Allies will have a massive army and I feel sure they will take Meiktila even if the city is fully fortified.  I'm going to give it every shot, anyhow.  If the Allies succeed, they have a chance at isolating the Jap units in Tyung Gai (well, actually those units can retreat into Thailand on bad roads) and should be able to push down the road toward Rangoon.  I don't know what the Japs have there.
 
China:  Chinese armies are still playing the shell game (or the General Nathan B. Forrest game) of moving units around all over the place to try to confuse the enemy - where are the Chinese going, where are the concentrated, and where are they weak?  The only offensive the Chinese will pursue right now is continuing SE from Honan to see if the Japs are weak in the area where they were recently defeated in battle.  In addition to hopefully misleading or worrying John, the main Chinese activity continues to be air transporting units to Lashio. It takes a fifteen days per unit, but that means I can transfer about three or four units a month into Burma, which I think is faster than John will be able to reinforce the area.  At least I hope so, anyway.
 
CenPac:  Nothing's changed here.  Japs are working on suppressing and reducing Wotje.  Allies are congregated at Pearl, Johnston, and Palmyra.

[Canoerebel]

12/3/42 and 12/4/42
 
Australia:  A Jap deliberate attack at Brisbane on the 3rd resulted in a 2:1 dropping forts to five.  The Japs lost 1532/39/12 to 1697/25/1.  It looked to me like the next attack might succeed, so I ordered  my non-static units to withraw towards Sydney.  My hope was that John would rest his troops a turn or two before his next attack.  Indeed, the Japs didn't attack on the 4th (except one small unit), so the bulk of my army is out of town and on the road to Sydney.  I hated to surrender Brisbane, but didn't want my troops to suffer a big defeat.  So now it's down to Melbourne and Sydney.  Dark times.  The Japs didn't attack at the crossroads west of Sydney over these two days.  Whether I'll continue to contest the hex is uncertain - the Jap army that will advance out of Brisbane will be a threat to the flank.
 
Burma:  The Allies tried a shock attack at Meiktila on the 4th, preceeded by a concerted bombing effort.  The Allies came out ahead in the air (slightly), but the shock attack came off at 0:1.  Forts are 7.  The Japs lost 1134/16 to 2703/55/2.  The Allies will rest a few days and await reinforcements, and alot are on the way, including two Indian divisions at Mandalay.  I think there's a decent chance the Allies will take Meiktila in the not-to-distant future.
 
KB:  An ASW attack on an Allied sub at Maloelap managed to reveal the presence of a massive Jap naval presence including all the BBs and at least five fleet CVs, a CVL, and 4 CVE.  In the face of such power, I've ordered the American fleet to pull back from Palmyra to Pearl Harbor.  John may be collecting this force to help take Wotje, or he may have hatched some bigger and bolder plan.

[Canoerebel]

12/5/42 to 12/10/42
 
Both sides were occupied with preparing for key battles, so this was a period of moving and prepping, with some skirmishing going on here and there.

Australia:  After the Japs took Brisbane, the bulk of the occupying army moved south on the coastal road toward Sydney.  This means Newcastle stands in the way of the Jap army's arrival at Sydney.  I'll make a token stand there.  It also means that the Japs didn't take the more inland route south, so my army at the crossroads west of Sydney isn't immediately threatened from the flank and will therefore continue to defend the crossroads at least awhile longer.  I haven't totalled the Allied AV that will be present in Sydney for the final stand, but it should be 1500 to 2000.  At Melbourne, the Jap airforce just struck in numbers for the first time in awhile.  The Allies came out ahead in the air, but the Japs got an equal number or better on the ground.  Also, it seems that the Jap CVs that were patroling the waters between NZ and Sydney are gone (a benefit of the Wotje invasion?).  Several very damaged AKs have been able to carry aircraft squadrons to NZ (mostly things I don't need now like transports, some short-range bombers, etc).  Since these ships made it, I'm also trying to send a couple of ships from NZ to Sydney - one carrying supplies, two APs carrying parts of 40th Division.  It would be funny if I was able to sneak 40th in after all the that's gone on to stop me in the past.  The BIG question now:  Will Sydney and/or Melbourne hold?

Burma:  Allied hopes for success are highest in Burma where a huge Allied army is besieging Meiktila.  John has 78k troops there with an AV of 1000+.  The Allies have 150k troops with an AV of 3500+ and two Indian divisions, an Indian brigade, and a Chinese unit about to arrive.  Of those, the two Indian divisions will arrive tomorrow, so I'll then order a full attack.  Since the Japs have 7 forts, I don't expect to take the city yet, but if the Allies don't make substantial progress I'll be dismayed.  If we can take Meiktila soon, I think the Japs will have a major problem on their hands.

China:   The Allies are moving about and having sufficient, though minor, successes (mainly north and east of Changsha) to - I hope - at least cause John some concern.  I don't anticipate any real advances here, but the situation here and in Burma should be causing John enough concern to possibly affect his plans (as stated in a thread on the main page of the WitP forum) to shift more divisions from China to the Pacific.

CenPac:  No sign of the KB in the past few days (since it was sighted at Malolap).  The Japs continue to work over Wotje.  The Allies are just waiting to see what happens.  CV Essex will arrive in Panama City late this month, as will a number of CVEs.  

[Canoerebel]

12/11/42 to 12/13/42
 
Australia:  Jap units are moving in on the final Allied bastions of Sydney and Melbourne.  To the south, 18th Div. and Imperial Guards took Geelong.  I've evacuated all Allied aircraft at Melbourne to Sydney.  Up that way, Japs continue to move down the road from Brisbane, with the other sizeable Jap force stuck at the crossroads west of town.  Fairly soon I'll have to pull the troops currently at the crossroads and at Newcastle back into Sydney.  The few remaining cargo ships have left Sydney making for NZ with some air squadrons.  Some APs carrying parts of 40th US Division from NZ will begin arriving at Sydney in two or three days.  These troops feel like they are being fed into a paper shredder.  Both Melbourne and Sydney will be tough nuts to crack.  Melbourne has AV 2200 and forts 9 with 80k supplies.  Sydney should have 1500-2000 AV, forts 9, and 25k supplies.  If I have to evacuate Sydney, the coastal road to Melbourne can't be cut off unless the Japs move across country.  I don't think John has nearly enough to threaten Melbourne right now.  His first target appears to be Sydney.  How long can it hold, and is John under any pressure due to supplies or the late date in the game?

Burma:  The Allies tried back to back attacks at Meiktila, with results that suggest they are making progress.  A 1:1 shock attack on the 12th lowered forts from 7 to 6 and inflicted 1174/27 to 2276/31/1.  The "computer" suggested I try another shock on the 13th, but I changed the orders to a deliberate attack for units with relatively low disorganization levels; the rest bombarded.  This attack came off at 0:1 and cost the Japs 1867/7 to 2766/79/4.  The Allied AV is now nearly 4500 with more units on the way.  The Jap AV is just over 1000.  I think Meiktila will fall in a fortnight - unless John transfers the units currently at Tyung Gai.  I have five Chinese units sitting north of Tyung Gai, serving as a rear-guard for Lashio.  If John abandon's Tyung Gai for Meiktila, I'll move those units forward.  I feel pretty sure the Allies will take Meiktila in a reasonable amount of time no matter what happens now.

China:  John keeps trying river crossings just east of Honan.  The Chinese units drove back a tank regiment, then two divisions.  Two more Jap divisions just crossed.  But I have far more units in the area than he does, so he isn't going anywhere.

Royal Navy:  Three or four days ago I ordered the RN to change base from Bombay to Madras to be in position to assist with an attack on Rangoon if that opportunity should arise.  While rounding Ceylon on the 13th, one of the RN TFs encountered I-153 which put a TT into BB Revenge doing light damage.  The TFs will continue to Madras.  I-153 was likely sunk by depth charging.

US CVs:  Parked at Pearl.

KB:  Last seen at Maloelap about ten days ago; I suspect she's preparing for or already on a cruise.  I don't have any major ships vulnerable right now, unless the KB moves NE of Hawaii into the shipping lanes leading to the US.  That's certainly a possibility, now that I think about it.  I may need to stand down supply convoys for a little while and set up a picket ship line.

Point Differential:  34,000 to 10,500.  The Japs can pick up alot of points in Australia - 2800 for Sydney, 2100 for Melbourne, 600 for Canberra, and alot for troops.  John should be able to earn an auto-victory if he finishes off Australia.  Honestly, though, I just don't have enough experience to know whether he will be able to do so.

[Q-Ball]

Dan, great AAR! Couple comments:

1. Are you playing past Auto Victory? The score is 34K to 10K, and he needs 3 to 1 on 1/1/43. (It's 4 to 1 in 1942, which is almost over). It looks to me like Auto Victory is in the bag for John, hopefully you keep going anyway.

2. Forget moving more troops into Sydney at the moment; you need SUPPLIES; if you only have 25K, that's a big problem, particularly if you are basing your planes there! I would move the planes back immediately to Melbourne, with it's 90K supply cache, while the rail line is still open!

Airplanes consume supply. And once the supplies dip under 20K, you can't replace damaged planes anyway. I don't know the ranges off the top of my head, but if they are Spits and can't fly to Melbourne, very shortly you will have pilots on the ground without planes. You can leave them there only if supplies are on the horizon.

I agree that 2000 AV on a size-9 fort will be VERY tough. You have to figure though he will concentrate everyone on one of those places first; probably Sydney, because it's tougher to isolate, and he will spot your smaller garrison, and it's more important anyway. You may hold out if you are supplied; if the supplies run out, it will fall for sure.

If the refugees bring more supplies into Sydney, that will help; check to see how much they are carrying. But you need to get supplies there immediately!

If you haven't, make sure repair is OFF for all your HI, resources, etc. You will have to turn replacements OFF until you get more supplies to Sydney. And I would move those planes.

If you can get a few AK's out, stands to reason you can get a few in. You should have plenty of AK's, even if you have lost 100+, so even if he sinks a bunch coming in, it will be worth if if a few get through with supplies.

[Canoerebel]

QBall, you scared the stuffing out of me for a moment.  The auto-victory level is 4:1 in 1943, not '42.  So I'm okay unless John can finish off Australia, which is certainly his objective.
 
(Were John to reach auto-victory levels, I would give up at that point; I wouldn't continue on).
 
Good points about supply levels.  I have some AKs heading from Auckland to Sydney, so there's a chance supplies will be augmented.  I hadn't even thought about turning off industry repair, but I'll do that pronto.
 
Handling my airforce is tough.  The aircraft at Sydney have been really hammering the Jap ground troops for weeks now.  When it's time to leave, I'll move aircraft that have long-legs to New Zealand - the B24s, Lib IIIs, and PBYs can make the hop.  In the short term, I may send the fighters and short-leg bombers to Melbourne as you suggest.
 
As best I can tell, alot of John's divisions in Australia are reduced-strength now, except for 10th Div. which is on the road from Brisbane to Sydney.  It still has an AV of about 900.  Most of the rest, I think, are closer to 500 or less, some considerably less.  The Aussie's have a tank brigade (AV 56) arriving in 30 days and 9th Division (AV 351) in 60 days.

[Q-Ball]

Sorry Dan, you are right, didn't mean to scare you on victory! Maybe you shouldn't listen to me then.

A full-strength IJA division has an AV of about 400, and that is for "square" divisions, which most early-war IJA ones are in the game. The 10th is square.

I'm not a ground combat expert, but if you have supplies, he needs a minimum of 10 divisions to even make a dent in the fort, and that will involve 0 to 1 attacks.

How is your prep by the way at Sydney? There is a good chance he isn't prepped much since Brisbane just fell.

[Canoerebel]

All of the troops at Melbourne are fully prepped.  Of the units at Sydney, about 1000 AV will be fully prepped.  The rest - the troops fleeing Brisbane - are currently prepping for Sydney and most are around 20 now.  John has about ten divisions in Australia, but they are split up - at least two are just west of Melbourne, so they aren't able to help at Sydney.  At least four are west of Sydney (at the crossroads we are battling over) and at least three helped take Brisbane.  All of the Jap units have been heavily engaged, really since the war began.  The Allied airforce in Australia has really been working over Jap ground troops, especially those west of Sydney.  I think John's tank units are weak - at least four of those were repeatedly driven back by 4th Aussie Division back when I relieved the Adelaide garrison.  So he has lots of troops present, but all of them should be roughed up a bit.  On the other hand, he will be able to pound me from the air forever now.

[bradfordkay]

Dan, are you trying to get more supplies into Sydney. With all the troops you have there, and certain bombardments to come, 25k supply will not last very long. I would do everything possible to get some supplies into this location. Good luck!

[Canoerebel]

Yes, the merchant ships coming from Auckland are heading for Sydney, but I won't count on them arriving until they are in port and unloaded.  John has been posting Mini-KBs in the sea between for months, but they suprisingly seemed to leave the area a few weeks ago.  I think they are up around Wotje.
 
I've done alot wrong in this game (hence the position that I'm in), but one thing that has been handled reasonably well is the final defense of SE Australia.  None of the Aussie troops are fatigued or disorganized, even those involved in retreats and skirmishing.  That too will change, but at least they enter the final seiges in good shape.

[Q-Ball]

bradforkay had the same thought I did. You're in a good spot I think, provided you get supplies to Sydney. If a mini-KB can prevent you from doing that, and I think it's a good chance John will get CV's down there to isolate Sydney, then you need to fight the AK's through. That means you need CV's there. You can't take on KB, but you can take on mini-KB, or draw his units off or something. But I have to beleive he is going to want to stop you from getting anything more into Sydney, and that will mean you will see CV's of some type here shortly. Get some supplies there while you can!

Oh, did we mention you might want to get some supplies to Sydney?[:D]

[Canoerebel]

I'm not sending the US CVs that way any time soon.  They wouldn't have a refuge.  They could retreat to New Zealand, but John could surround the island with his CVs and destroy mine.  Sending my carriers there would be suicide.  (Even moreso since I don't have the Society Island either - the CVs would have to leave Pearl, steam east, then south, then west; it would be many weeks before they could reach the area and I think the battle will have been decided long before then; besides, the sea lanes between NZ and Sydney won't remain open but another week or so.  John will soon take Newcastle and base 100 aircraft there (it's a level 2 airfield).
 
Also, the whole reason I invaded Wotje was to open a second front, and that seems to have succeeded (although I may well lose Wotje before all is said and done).  The KB was recently sighted at Maloelap.  I'm surprised John vacated the sea lanes between NZ and Australia, but he did. The first 40th Division detachment just landed at Sydney, with two other APs on the way, plus five or six AK with supplies.  So there's a good chance I'll be able to bolster Sydney's supplies and garrison without risking my carriers.
 
I realize that the entire game turns on my defense of SE Australia, and that if I lose there I've lost the game; and desperate times call for desperate measures.  But if the Allies do manage to hold Australia, they need those CVs in a bad way.
 
QBall, per your suggestion I shut off "repairs" at all the Melbourne and Sydney industries.
 
If I can create a breakthrough in Burma, that should also apply pressure to John to "do something."  If Australia can hold awhile, he's eventually going to feel a great need for those troops in Australia elsewhere.  I'm trying to create pressure that way.

[Canoerebel]

12/14/42 to 12/21/42
 
Australia:  Here it the summer solstice, but nobody's enjoying the beach.  The Allies still hold Newcastle and Canberra (at the moment, but not much longer) and Sydney and Melbourne (hopefully for a long time).  The Japs are on the move, closing on Sydney.  They took Albury on the 14th and have been regularly bombarding at Newcastle where the 10th and 56th Divisions and 1st Mixed Brigade face 7th Aussie Division and two brigades.   A deliberate atttack on the 19th came off at 0:1, forts tell from 4 to 3, and the Japs lost 1449/31/10 to 583/23/4.  I had expected Newcastle to fall on the first attack, so I was pleasantly surprised.  I think Jap reinforcements are nearly there, so John should take the city soon, but until then the Allies control that airfield and the transports continue to arrive at Sydney (carrying part of 40th US Division and some much needed supplies).  John isn't molesting the Allied bombers based in Melbourne and Sydney and they are performing good service.  Is John low on supplies, or is he allowing me to bomb so that I'll use my supplies?  Am I better bombing, or conserving supplies?  I truly don't know.  But I'll err on the side of a vigorous defense for now.

Burma:  An Allied air raid hit Rangoon on the 15th, but didn't do as much damage as I had hoped.  There was minimal cap.  I think the Allies destroyed 19 aircraft on the ground.  The Allies tried a mostly-shock attack at Meiktila on the 16th.  It came off at 0:1, fort stayed 6, and the Japs lost 811/16 to 4427/73/2.  Another shock on the 21st came off at 2211/26 to 5283/114/6.  I'll rest my guys for awhile.  Jap units have moved west (on a real map, not the WITP map) from Tyung Gai, into the hex south of Lashio.  But the Chinese have two units there and a big one about to move there from Lashio.  I think John is thinking he might be able to take the hex and then possibly move on lightly held Mandilay; but I have too much in the area, and John's troops are way out in no-man's-land now.  If I can whip them, they go back to Tyung Gai.  But now they can't assist the Japs at Meiktila.  Another Chinese unit arrived at Kunming and 4 Dakota squadrons will transport it to Lashio pretty quickly.  Jap reinforcements are arriving at Meiktila - so far small units like SNLF and Naval Guards, but SigInt reported a regiment is headed for Rangoon.  I'm not making good progress at Meiktila, but I'm still hopeful.

Bay of Bengal:  I sent a small surface combat TF from Madras toward Rangoon.  If she wasn't sighted, I planned to let it take a crack at Jap transports there.  But on the 21st, Kates from Port Blair found it and put 5 TT into Prince of Wales.  SYS and flooding are heavy (74 on the former), but I think she can make Diamond Harbor.  P38s from Chittagong will fly LRCAP.

China:  The Chinese drove back two Jap divisions SE of Honan, pushing them across a river.

CenPac:  The bulk of Jap CVs and combat ships seem to be in CenPac, the latter working over Wotje.  There's nothing significant I can do about it in the short run.  Subs and PT boats are making some noise, but that's about it.

Situation:  Within a week I should know whether John has enough on hand to take Sydney.  I assume he does, but I hope he doesn't.  Sydney's AV will be well over 2000 - perhaps 2200.  Melbourne has about 2150.  It's nearly Christmas.